Saturday, January 6, 2007

We the people - the stuckees!

Now that the Pelosi and Reid led Democrats are in control it will be instructive to watch how they function with the claimed re-enstatement of PAYGO - something the first Bush introduced, Clinton embraced and the second Bush and his Party abandoned.

If Democrats want to help their little "straw-man" the first place to start would be by reducing the escalating and crushing effect of the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) on middle income earners. This means they will have to cut spending somewhere. Doing the cutting in the face of Jesse Jackson's new demands on his Congressional friends should prove highly entertaining. Many members of the Black Caucus now have assumed high positions within the Democrat Party and are in charge of several key committees due to seniority. If Democrats are true to Pelosi's word and intend to act fiscally responsible, the girdle effect of PAYGO should make the budget appear downright svelte.

I do not believe it will happen of course and I also believe, as the Democrats begin to take over governance, many things they have railed against will come back to bite them because they are not a Party prone to fiscal responsibility any more than the Republicans were and/or are. Spending other peoples money is what gets politicians elected. Like bees, it is their political honey.

New ethical rules, aimed at lobbyists and trumpeted by Ms. Pelosi, are full of holes and a sham. Also, the hundred day rush to pass "showy" legislation is just that - create the appearance of governance and that we are in charge. The fact that the Democrats are doing so without allowing for debate and giving Republicans any hope of offering amendments is just another sham. What we are actually witnessing, in between all the kisses highlighted by an obsequious media, is vindictive pay-back and politics as usual. The Democrats stuck it to the Republicans for some forty years.

The Republicans then stuck it to the Democrats for some ten plus years and now the Democrats are back in town. It is nothing but political hypocrisy and who is truly getting stuck? - we the people.

Though I am over my head in discussing these matters I thought I would add a few comments about two our nation faces longer term from the perspective of demographics and health and fissures revealed by failed military episodes.

There are many ongoing debates with respect to the consequences of retirees, ie. who will buy their assets and what will be their economic future etc. Some argue there will be a significant asset shift as other emerging nations accumulate wealth, placing themselves in a position to buy up our domestic assets. Thereby, providing our retiree population the economic wherewithal to do so in comfort. Certainly we are not creating wealth through our own savings rate which hovers around zero. We can, however, create wealth through innovation and productivity but the former demands continued investment in basic research and the latter comes from increased labor saving type investments and an educated and sophisticated work force.

Germany is currently suffering a brain drain as more of their productive and employable citizens flee the increased Muslim influence both in Europe and, more specifically, in their own country; as well as the onerous tax burden on German incomes. In or own country, legal immigration is being restrained by more challenging visa procedures following 9/11, while illegal immigration goes relatively unchecked. The latter may contribute to filling gaps in our work force needs but since most repatriate much of their earnings while making increasing demands on the nation's social structure, they provide little financial offset. Another escalating future burden we face unless rational changes are implemented in our immigration policies.

A second issue pertains to our nation's health care costs which are escalating out of control. Whatever legislation is being proposed does more to reduce efficiency, escalate costs and adds to a decrease in quality of professional care. We would be wise to scrap all existing federal programs and replace them with something fresh and more workable - it will never happen because there are too many vested interests in maintaining what does not work. So the inefficient patchwork will persist and expand.

The demand for health care will only increase as a result of our aging population. Some reports indicate 50% of one's entire health costs are generated in the last 6 or more months of life. In the lecture series we are putting on, I and my committee have scheduled a panel discussion on medical ethics and aging.

The issues I raise relate to quality of life and income disparities. Democracy and capitalism, in tandem, have spawned successive generations of egalitarian benefits and wealth beyond anything seen in the rest of the world. Americans are living longer, are healthier, have more life style options and the lists continues endlessly. Whether we will maintain these opportunities for future generations and remain a magnet nation capable of attracting immigration as well as capital inflows is the critical issue we face and must resolve.

Each successive Congress has an opportunity to leave their mark and either chip away at these problems or add to them. We have been in political stalemate for many years and though some believe that beneficial, I find these views cynically based on their contempt for bureaucracy - justified or otherwise. We have real and serious problems. Answers must be found or they will mount and solutions will become ever more costly and difficult.

I hope the new Democrat Congress will think outside the box and move towards sensible reforms where needed but like the "stalemate crowd" I doubt it will happen. It takes a crisis to accomplish anything and then progress generally responds with unwise solutions, aka - Sarbanes Oxley and other such past legislative enactments which either made the problem bigger or added new ones or both.

Perhaps our political cycles are not geared to long term solutions. Perhaps our predilection for quick fixes and our impatient temperament are part of the problem. Whatever it is, the time has passed for more political footballing.

I believe our successive military failures in Viet Nam and now possibly Iraq suggest there are transcending fissures in our methodology, our national temperament, our political structure that need to be addressed and debated because they effect our nation's future and the hopes of future generations.

Can and will we?

Dick

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