Playing the Gotcha Game-Nero did it!

Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser is the outgoing head of the IDF Intelligence Research Department. I thought a few quotes of his would be of interest. They are in response to an interview he gave when he was a visiting Fellow at The Brooking's Institute's Saban Center for Middle East Policy. (See 1 below.)

Tomorrow, GW will try, once again, to give Americans a wake-up lesson in future Iranian intentions and ambitions but, as H.L Mencken once wrote, Boobus Americanus will probably not grasp the enormity of the challenge. Certainly most Democrats understand the threat but winning and controlling power, by pointing out GW's mistakes, is far more politically productive and inticeing. Playing the "Gotcha Game" is a convenient way to wile away time. Nero did it, so there is plenty of precedence.

Olmert finally succumbs to Peretz's choice of Gabi Ashkenazi as head of Israel's Military. So who is Gabi? (See 2 below.)

We are from the EU and we are here to help! My advice, count your fingers if you shake their hands! (See 3 below.)

Lest we forget, Qassams still fall daily. Some terrorists were obviously out to lunch recently when their unsuccessful launch effort killed them instead. (See 4 below.)

What is this all about? A blip from Janes'. (See 5 below.)

Meanwhile, the Swiss suggest Syria was serious and secret talks did take place. Terry Newman says negotiate with Syria now and Zalman Zhoval disagrees. (See 6 and 7 below.)

Satloff, at Herzliya, shocks the audience, by suggesting Israel in an enviable position. Satloff believes this to be the case because so many Arab nations want to talk to Israel. That is true. The Palestinians want to talk so they can get money released. The Syrians want to talk so they can get The Golan back. The Jordanians and the Egyptians want to talk because that is all they ever do. The terrorists continue to talk with their rocket attacks. Lebanon would like to talk but Hezballah won't let them. The Saudis would talk but they are afraid it would be the end of Mecca if they did and the Iranians are too busy building nuclear weapons to destroy Israel, so they have no time to talk. (See 8 below.)

Dick

1) Question: What happens if Hezballah gains more power in Lebanon?

Response: "The struggle between the Siniora government and Hezballah is a microcosm of the region-wide struggle between reformists and anti-Western radicals. If Siniora is toppled, the radicals would win a significant regional victory. And its even bigger than that. Iran is leading the Islamist radical camp in an effort to change the entire world order, which it believes is under Western control...A Hezballah victory would have worldwide repercussions."

Question: Why should the United States be concerned about [Iran]?"


Response: Wiping Israel off the map for Ahmadinjad is just a step toward changing the world order. For him, that order is not just based on the wrong values-namely ,Western values- but it was built to serve Western hegemony. And he and his ilk want to end this hegemony. They are trying to weaken and then destroy all the elements that in their mind undergird the prevailing order.

That's why they defy the UN and its resolutions on Lebanon and Iran; it is part of the world order. In their mind that order is based on the results of WW 2. They question the Holocaust not just because they hate Jews, but because if you say 'There was no Holocaust,' you say there shouldn't be an Israel, which is an important part of the post-WW 2 order. Another part of the order is the superpower's near monopoly over nuclear weapons. We want arms too, say the radicals. North Korea is already there, and Iran is getting close. Since they defy the code of war fighting and look at civilians as legitimate targets, this development is extremely dangerous."

Question: Is Syria's president serious in his calls for peace talks with Israel?

Response: "Assad knows exactly what it takes to show he's serious, but he is doing just the opposite. He supports Hezballah and destabilizes Lebanon. He continues to host the Palestinian terror groups. He continues to let terrorists go through Syria to Iraq. He continues to produce chemical arms.

These are his deeds. Does he know what he has to do? Yes, he does. Can he change? Yes, he can.Is he? No, he isn't."


2) Ashkenazi quit the armed forces eighteen months ago as deputy chief of staff after serving four years as OC Northern Command and 30 years in uniform. Six months ago, he was appointed director general of the defense ministry by Peretz. From 1972, Ashkenazi served in the Golani Brigade. He climbed the ranks to take over its command in 1986. The new chief of staff has a distinguished record as a specialist in large-scale ground and armored battles - in sharp contrast to the general he replaces, Lt. Gen Dan Halutz, who came to the job from command of the air force.


3) EU leaders meet to seek ways to bolster Mideast negotiations

European Union foreign ministers sought ways to bolster the Middle East peace process Monday and were set to push Israeli and Palestinian leaders to live up to commitments to resume negotiations after six years of violence and stalemate.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said ministers were considering how the EU, United States and the UN "can support contacts" between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.

A draft statement to be issued by the EU ministers at the end of their talks welcomed the Israel's partial transfer of Palestinian tax and customs revenues worth $100 million to Abbas. Israel froze the transfer of the money after the militant group Hamas, which refuses to recognize Israel, won elections a year ago.

The EU ministers were also to call for more bilateral talks between Olmert and Abbas "which should lead to meaningful negotiations on the final status" of ties.

However, EU officials readily acknowledge that failure so far between Abbas' Fatah party and Hamas to set up a so-called unity government to head the PA hampers any lasting peace in the region.

The EU aims to step up mediation efforts at a February 2 meeting in Washington of the Quartet of peace makers comprising the EU, U.S., UN and Russia. The Quartet backs a "road map" for Israeli-Palestinian peace which envisions the creation of a Palestinian state.

Separately, the EU foreign ministers said they "stand ready to support" Lebanon at an international donors' conference planned Thursday in Paris. Donors are expected to give around $5 billion in money and loans at the meeting.

The EU also called on Lebanese political factions to find a solution to the current deadlock, which threatens to further destabilize the country after last summer's war with Israel.

Following a tour of the region Sunday, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana urged Israel to freeze West Bank settlements and stop constructing the security fence. He hoped "the realities on the ground" brought about by Israeli settlement building would not "prevent a two-state solution from happening."

Solana said he was struck by the growth of settlements and the separation fence cutting into land that Palestinians want for a state.

"I had the opportunity to make a tour along the eastern part of Jerusalem and go to Abu Dis and its surroundings. You get really very shocked every time you go and you see the situation worse, the wall is more extended and settlements are more extended," Solana told reporters in Amman.

The EU official said there was a "window of opportunity" that the international community and the parties to the conflict should seize to revive talks that collapsed in 2001 and have remained deadlocked since Hamas took power.

"We think there is an opportunity now, an opportunity that should not be let go by to open the political process that should end up with the resolution of the conflict," he said.

Earlier on Sunday, Solana said the time was opportune for relaunching peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, thanks to the existence of "political will" on the part of all players he met recently.

Judging by "the talks I have had with different actors in the United States and in the region, I think the political will is there for moving the peace process," Solana told a press conference before leaving for Israel on the last leg of a regional tour.

4) A Qassam rocket fired from the northern Gaza Strip landed Monday afternoon
near a strategic facility in the Ashkelon industrial zone. No injuries or
damage were reported.

The al-Quds Brigades, Islamic Jihad's military wing, claimed responsibility
for the attack.

An Islamic Jihad source told Ynet, "The fire is part of operation 'Red
Rose,' in the course of which we plan to launch hundreds of rockets, most of
them improved Quds-3 type, in response to the Israeli violations of the calm
in Gaza, and the continued arrests and assassinations in the West Bank."

Shortly before noon, a rocket landed near a kibbutz in the western Negev.
There were no injuries or damage.

Three rockets were fired from Gaza Sunday. One landed in an open field
outside the town of Sderot, and the two others fell in open areas in the
northern Negev. No injuries or damage were reported in any of the incidents.

The al-Quds Brigades said they were behind the attacks.

In light of the escalation in Qassam attacks on Ashkelon, Finance Minister
Abraham Hirchson pledged Sunday that a fortified emergency room will be
built at the local Barzilay Hospital.


5) USAF eyes world's largest bomb for B-2A Spirit
By Stephen Trimble

The US Air Force (USAF) may prepare the world's largest bomb - the Boeing Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) - for action aboard the Northrop Grumman B-2A Spirit by the end of 2007.

The Air Armament Center said on 17 January that it is "contemplating a quick-reaction capability" to integrate the 20 ft (6 m)-long, 30,000 lb-class (13,600 kg) weapon on the B-2A in a nine-month period starting after contract award.

In July 2006, the Air Force Research Laboratory announced a plan to have Boeing demonstrate the bomb's ability to destroy hard and deeply buried targets before August 2007 and to use the data to inform a decision on whether to launch an acquisition programme in Fiscal Year 2008. Boeing is also developing a special carriage release system for the weapon.

6) Switzerland admits mediating Syria-Israel talks

Swiss President Micheline Calmy-Rey divulges that her country arbitrated secret peace talks between Israel and Syria, at special press conference for the occasion of her election.


Switzerland mediated the secret peace talks between Israel and Syria which were exposed in the media last week, Swiss President Micheline Calmy-Rey admitted Monday.


The recently elected Federal Council president revealed her country’s role in the Damascus-Jerusalem contacts during a press conference held for the occasion of her presidential appointment, Swiss media reported.


Making Contact
Ex-diplomat: Israeli officials don't want Syrian talks / Moran Zelikovich
Former Foreign Ministry director who was involved in talks with Syrian officials, slams gov't officials for denying knowledge of talks, attempt to downplay significance: 'There was a chance, the Syrians were interested – but Israel wouldn't meet with them'
Full Story
“The secret talks, which are no longer secret after being made known in the media last week, were in fact arbitrated by a Swiss mediator,” she revealed.



Former Foreign Ministry Director General Dr. Alon Liel was the Israeli representative at the unofficial talks, opposite Ibrahim Soliman , a Syrian American with close ties to Damascus.



Speaking to reporters at the Netanya Academic College last week, Dr. Liel admitted that the talks were mediated by a European country, whose identity he refused to divulge.



“Our only way of ascertaining that our counterparts were serious was sending someone to Damascus nearly every month to verify this,” Liel explained. He described the mediator as “a super-professional, super responsible European dignitary.”



Confirming Liel’s statements, Calmy-Rey said Monday that the mediator was in Syria at present, adding that Switzerland’s foreign affairs secretary would depart for Damascus next week.


Calmy-Rey served as Switzerland’s foreign minister last year and made multiple visits to Israel . She was known to make frequent non-neutral, activist comments which were not always well-received in Israel, and which contradicted the neutral stance of previous Swiss foreign ministers.


She made particular efforts to advance the recognition of Magen David Adom by the International Red Cross.



Her activism earned criticism within Switzerland as well, as her activism was often perceived as deviated from her country’s traditional policy of neutrality. She currently holds the topmost position in Switzerland’s political system.



The Swiss government, which represents the state’s various cantons, comprises a multi-party coalition, making up a seven-member executive council which is newly elected each year.



'Syria sincere about peace'
In a rare interview with Ynet from his home in a Washington suburb this weekend, Syrian representative in the talks Ibrahim Soliman said that talks were held with the knowledge and support of the administrations in both Jerusalem and Damascus.



"Syria wanted to make peace with Israel, Syria wanted to build relations with the United States; President Assad said time and again that he wanted to have good relations with the United States. He extended his hand in friendship and peace to Israel and the US, and they turned him down,” Suleiman said.



Soliman was scheduled to address the Israeli public for the first time next week, in a speech at the Herzliya conference, as the special guest of Dr. Uzi Arad, chief diplomatic consultant to the prime minister during Benjamin Netanyahu’s term. However, when his efforts were publicized, Soliman, who believes strongly that media exposure sabotages diplomatic negotiations, decided to cancel his visit.

7) Engage Syria; Isolate Iran
Western dialogue with Syria could benefit both sides
by Terry Newman

The West wants to isolate Iran, weaken Hamas and Hizbullah. Syria wants to be brought in from international isolation. The time is right for Western engagement with Syria.



Assad’s cards are the strongest they have been since his ascent to power. He maintains close contacts with Iran, Hamas, and Hizbullah - and is often the glue between Iran and the latter. As Western pressure on Iran increases, Assad knows his strategic value to the West increases. But this is a fragile position.



As soon as Iran acts it will be too late. Assad will be forced to go with Iran and the West will be more interested in combating the effects of Iran rather than preventing its threat. So Assad is trapped into a corner. He must push for peace or for war. He has a window in which to determine the future of Syria.


Another Opinion
Syria hallucinations / Zalman Shoval


Assad knows the probable price of peace – the end of his support for Iran, Hamas, and Hizbullah, limited democratization, recognition of Lebanese sovereignty and full relations with Israel. And, he knows the gains – strategic alliance with the West and Western-leaning Arab states, and the return of the Golan Heights to Syrian sovereignty. He is weighing these two and appears to be showing willingness to pay the price.



Is Assad a Jeffersonian democrat? No. A Machiavellian realist comparing the fates of Saddam and Gaddafi? Perhaps.



Benefits to the West

From the Western perspective, the prime benefit of engaging Syria is isolating Iran. The Iranians are threatening to go nuclear and remake the Middle East in their image. They have spent the last 27 years sending their emissaries throughout the Middle East - spreading their vision of Islamic revolution.



Much of this has been possible due to the acquiescence and sometimes overt support of the Syrian regime. As the US-led coalition plans its withdrawal from Iraq, the threat of Iran filling the vacuum is all too real. A pre-emptive attempt to confine Iran to its borders is the most sensible and realistic strategy to check the spread of Shiite radicalism and instability throughout the region.



Further, Syria’s eastern border with Iraq is the key entry point for Sunni fighters to enter Iraq and spread instability. Assad is the only power with the ability to control and limit this movement. Again, only engagement of Syria will achieve this essential Western goal.



The end of Syrian support for Hizbullah would have a devastating impact on the organization – resulting in a two-fold benefit: First it would give Lebanese democracy a better chance to stabilize. And second, it would remove Hizbullah’s capability to act with impunity in South Lebanon, which ignited the summer war.



The expulsion of Hamas' leadership from Damascus will effect a strategic realignment within the Hamas movement – strengthening its more moderate leadership in the Palestinian territories. This would encourage the moderates within Hamas to embrace the demands of the international community and reinvigorate the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.



A Syrian rejection of Iran and Hamas would also strengthen the role of Egypt in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. This is a strategic interest of both sides of the conflict and the West. Israelis and Palestinians know that the mediation provided primarily in the past through Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman has been successful. And, from a Western perspective, the Egyptian government remains a key ally in checking Iran and the fight against extremism throughout the Middle East.



From a pro-democracy perspective, engaging Assad is also preferable. The continued bloodshed in Iraq has shown that democracy is best promoted in fractious Middle Eastern societies through pressurising existing regimes rather than sudden regime change. Assad can be squeezed at present.



I remember on a visit to Lithuania meeting with then Prime Minister Brazauskas. He had been head of the Communist Party but following the fall of the Berlin Wall he reinvented himself as head of the Social-Democratic Party. He was a leader. And the policies of the party he led were less important than the leadership itself.



Similarly, Assad has slowly absorbed the leadership principle. His key aim is to maintain his leadership rather than impose a dictatorship. Gradual reform through the pressurising of Assad from above and encouraging free-speech from below is the best means to get the democratic message through. So ironically, the best way to support democracy in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria will be through the engagement of a dictator in Syria.



The UK, US and Israel – democracies committed to combating terrorism – are most effective when acting together. Current UK-US policy in the Middle East is primarily focussed on stabilizing Iraq. Israel should act now or it could be left in a worse-case scenario where the West engage Syria as Israel watches from the sidelines and is forced into a less beneficial peace treaty.



Benefits to Syria

For Syria, the West and western-supporting Arab states are its natural sphere of activities. The ruling Baathist party drew its influence from Western political ideology. Syria borders western-looking Lebanon and Turkey. The French language is spoken by many. And, only 50 years ago, Syria was part of a single country with Egypt.



The realignment to Iran was more circumstantial than ideological. Following Syria’s implication in the assassination of Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, Arab nations withdrew further support from Syria forcing her further into the hands of Iran. So, Syria is looking for an "extended hand" from the West.



Assad’s promises of reform - economic and political – have failed to bear fruit. The frustrated population of Damascus is desperate for legal versions of Microsoft Windows and for high-speed internet, for good hamburgers and chips with a crunch, for decent cars and disposable income. A strategic realignment with the West would provide Syria with these goods, satisfy the population and give Assad a quick fix to his failed policies



Syrians are also well aware of the price they paid for their Cold War misalignment. It has set them back decades. Assad knows the pros and cons of Western alignment. He studied in London – not Moscow! And Syrians look in envy at the Egyptian development that resulted from their realignment to the West in the 1970s. The world is drawing up lines again, and the thought of sitting on the anti-Western bench again is chilling for many.



Finally, Syria will regain the Golan Heights. This is a high price to extract from Israel. But Assad knows that with world pressure he can achieve this goal which eluded his father.



Assad needs a place to land in the West. The West needs Assad to isolate Iran, weaken Hamas and Hizbullah. Would engagement definitely succeed? Maybe. Would Assad be able to deliver? Perhaps. But, it is worth testing his intentions? Definitely. So engage Syria and isolate Iran.

8) Analyst says Israel 'in enviable position'
US academic: For first time in history, all Arabs want to talk to you
By Yaakov Lappin


Israel is in "an enviable position" due to the unprecedented number of Arab states and organizations who wish to speak with it, according to US analyst Dr. Robert Satloff, who made the comment Monday evening at the Herzliya Conference.


Opinion
Academic: Israeli-Arabs want end of Jewish state / Yaakov Lappin
There is no way to accommodate demands of Israeli-Arabs, short of replacing Israel with an Arab state, says Dr. Dan Schueftan
Full Story

His view would likely surprise many Israelis, but Satloff, who is the executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he could not remember a time when Israel was in a more enviable position.



"It's my view that Israel does not know what an enviable position it has found itself in," Satloff said, adding: "For the first time in which I can recall, all Arabs want to talk to you. Arabs who like you, and those who don't like you, want talk to you. Those with malicious intentions, and those who do not have malicious intentions. All of them want to talk to you. You have the choice of who you want to speak to, and in which order. That is an enviable position."



Addressing the recent controversies created by US public figures that have come out against Israel, such as Jimmy Carter and John Mearsheimer, Satloff said: "Israel remains deeply supported by American people. On a popular level that foundation is strong. On an elite level it's weakening."



Arabs 'begging US to deal with Iran'

The American analyst said he has surveyed Arab opinion from North Africa to the Persian Gulf, and found that although the Iraq invasion was unpopular, "they are begging us not to leave."



"They are begging us to stop Iran. To prevent an Iranian nuclear acquisition, and stemming Iranian influence. We remain the most powerful player in region."



Satloff's view was contradicted by Dr. Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, who said: "The US era in the Middle East is over." He cited US policies such as the Iraq war, and the "unwise emphasis on elections" as leading to the end of American dominance in the region.



Haass, who was former head of policy planning at the US State Department, also criticized Israel for not negotiating with Syria, saying: "I don't understand the reticence of diplomacy." He added that negotiations were non-binding, and that it was pointless to place preconditions on talks.



The United States should engage in direct negotiations with Iran over stabilizing Iraq and Tehran's nuclear program, he added.