This memo is the 599th posted in 2020.
This memo is totally my own thinking, is based upon my own experiences and observations while I was involved in Wall Street, as well as what I have gleaned from my readings and my formal education and ends with my thoughts concerning next year's economy markets.
Politically and economically speaking, democracy and capitalism are preferable to any comparable systems mankind has devised. It is mankind's use and manipulation of both that creates problems which buttress arguments by radicals seeking to replace them with socialism and totalitarians. Wealth invites greed, while freedom begs the question of self-governance and personal responsibility.
America's wealth disparity is a serious problem and is mostly the consequence/result of a variety of pernicious trends we allowed to occur and were driven by those who became selfish and disregarded or purposely avoided the obvious. In a sense it is a chicken and egg matter.
America allowed the middle class to decline. The middle class is the glue that holds our society together because it gives hope that upward mobility remains alive and therefore, achievable through hard work , dedicated effort, creativity, working within societal boundaries, perhaps a modicum of luck and, above all, education. The pursuit of profit and lower cost consumer goods, more competitive manufacturing costs crushed the middle class as offshore production opportunities became an unbridled magnet.
As the middle class suffered, education became synonymous with indoctrination and the results of such cost escalated. Trump believed, and rightly so, we needed to put America's interests first and that meant changes. American industry needed incentives to return home, rehire the unemployed but willing and skilled workforce and that meant leveling the playing field on which commerce took place. He raised tariffs, told our, so called, friends to increase funding their own portion of responsibilities and lowered taxes.
He also tackled other issues that had been addressed and which failed by thinking outside the box and, here, I refer to the Middle East. Furthermore, he set about sending clear messages to Islamist terrorists, China, N Korea and Iran and other adversaries that Lola/Annie Oakley was back in town and things would be different and they were.
Work not handouts is the best social medicine for the human spirit and one's self-worth. Everything Trump did was aimed at taking power away from the elites and returning it to: We The People."
Six problems/events arose to defeat Trump:
1) The elite refused to accept Trump and they set about to wreck his ability to strip them of their power so they impeached him.
2) The m(ass) media sided with the elite and did everything in their power to stigmatize Trump and he helped because of his own boorish style and unorthodox ways and manners.
3) Over the years, Americans had allowed the direction of their own power to slip from their hands and flow in the direction of government and politicians who no longer served "We The People" but became handmaidens and controlled by special interests and lobbyists. If the 5600 page, so called, COVID legislation and the over 2000 page Obama Care bill do not testify to this nothing can.
4) Add to the above the fact that, corporate America no longer felt obligated and therefore, chose to be less responsible, for worker retirement programs. Consequently, this nurtured more disconnect and lessened feelings of employee-company loyalty. While this was occurring consultants took over corporate compensation and naturally they endeared themselves by justifying increased compensation packages which widened employer-employee attitudinal disparity.
5) The Chinese Pandemic allowed mostly Democrat Governors and Mayors to fail in their leadership as they undertook lock downs and displayed feckless response to civil occurrences initiated by a police episode.
6) The "cherry" event was the 2020 election and the questionable behavior brought about by massive mailing of unsolicited ballots and the pathetic response by Republicans as well as our judicial system due to the spread of intimidation, "wokeness," increasing division brought about by identity politics. a
Our republic now hangs by a thread to be determined by a crucial election in Georgia. on January 5. Ironically Georgia receives between 15 AND 25% of the state's international trade volume from China and close ties extend beyond trade and span across party affiliations.
It remains crucial that Georgia re-elect two senators.
As for 2021, assuming successful and wide vaccine distribution is accomplished, the economy should re-open and the economic recovery should begin, albeit slowly. The service sector is a large employer and that will prove beneficial but more than 50% of our country depends upon individual entrepreneurs and that sector has been dealt a serious blow.
As for the stock market, the disparity between growth and value is historically wide though in the last month it has begun to narrow. I believe a new permanent spread has occurred but, in the near term, I also believe value stocks, that pay dividends, will do well until more uncertainty fades. Market valuations are also high.
There are always offsetting risks and among the more important are:
a) America's debt and persistent low rates threatens the value of the dollar. However, the stimulus caused is necessary. The straits, through which The Fed must sail, are narrow.
b) China's threat and desire for dominance both to our nation and the world will only rise.
c) Regardless of your view of Biden, he will assume office, if that is the final outcome, under the clouds caused by his son's rapacious and reckless conduct which his father condoned and knew about, at the very least, if not, in fact aided.
d) There is every reason to believe, the Durham Report, once released, will be a wide net and any ensnaring will be disrupting as well as the investigation of Hunter. Should Biden seek to interfere with either that too could result in a firestorm.
e) Neither can Biden's mental and physical state be overlooked nor the prospect of Kamal becoming president which would mean the return of a third Obama term in office and all that conjures.
f) Finally, if the Georgia vote results in Republicans losing control of the Senate and, concurrently, the disappearance of any leverage over reigning in Biden the pressure from radicals would mount. Thus, all bets would be off.
Stay tuned.
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High Level DOJ Officials Discussing Special Counsel For Hunter Biden: Sources
And:
Why Sidney Powell Has Not Heard From Trump Lately
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