4)
4): Australian gun law update

From Douglas Barthelmes

Australian Gun Law Update;
 Here's a thought to warm some of your hearts....
 From: Ed Chenel, A police officer in Australia
 Hi Yanks, I thought you all would like to see the real figures from Down Under. It has now been 12 months since
 gun owners in Australia were forced by a new law to surrender 640,381 personal firearms to be destroyed by
 our own government, a program costing Australia taxpayers more than $500 million dollars.

 The first year results are now in:
 Australia-wide, homicides are up 6.2 percent,
 Australia-wide, assaults are up 9.6 percent;
 Australia-wide, armed robberies are up 44 percent (yes, 44 percent)!
 In the state of Victoria.....alone, homicides with firearms are now up 300 percent.(Note that while the
 law-abiding citizens turned them in, the criminals did not and criminals still possess their guns!)

 While figures over the previous 25 years showed a steady
 decrease in armed robbery with firearms, this has changed drastically upward in the past 12 months, since the
criminals now are guaranteed that their prey is unarmed.There has also been a dramatic increase in break-ins
 and assaults of the elderly, while the resident is at home.

 Australian politicians are at a loss to explain how public safety has decreased, after such monumental effort and
 expense was expended in 'successfully ridding Australian society of guns....'

 You won't see this on the American evening news or hear your governor or members of the State Assembly
 disseminating this information.

 The Australian experience speaks for itself. Guns in the hands of honest citizens save lives and property and,
 yes, gun-control laws affect only the law-abiding citizens.

 Take note Americans, before it's too late!
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5)  This is long, but packed at the latter part with lots of good data, and should provide a good 
basis for your decisions going  forward. I tried to provide actual hard data from various credible
sources, and not any numbers produced by political parties or the press.

The big black swan has landed. What the assassination of Soleimani did was change the 
geopolitics of the world forever. Here is the perfect analogy. In 1938 Chamberlain made his 
famous peace in our time deal with Hitler. Appeasement and genocide. We know what 
happened. Obama made his deal with the mullahs in 2025, and what happened was similar, 
on a smaller scale. Appeasement and death. Obama financed  their massive terror campaign 
which took off as soon as the money was delivered. Iran was treated by Obama Biden as a 
potentially cooperative nation who deserved to get paid 100% up front, (stupid beyond 
comprehension) that would suddenly act right, when they were really using the money for 
murdering hundreds or thousands with terror attacks throughout the Mideast. Were Obama 
Biden  naïve, or just idiots. Both I think. Obama Biden claimed the nuke deal was going to 
bring a peaceful and cooperative Iran. (peace in our time). What Trump did was the equivalent
to assassinating Hitler in  1938.  Soleimani was the modern day Hitler. Instead of the 
Wehrmacht, he was running proxy armies across the world killing thousands. He was far more
dangerous than Bin Laden. What is hard to understand is the Dems and the press not 
understanding what he represented as a clear and present danger to the US. Pompeo and
Trump said he had plans for a series of deadly attacks on US personnel and facilities across
the Mideast which were imminent. They had already attacked 11 bases and then the embassy.
That alone is an act of war in some cases. Iran initiated all of that, and Trump did nothing but
warn Iran there would be dire consequences, and Congress said nothing. What do the Dems
and press think Soleimani  was doing in Baghdad -buying a birthday gift for his wife??? They
seem to think it better not to have done anything and let the attacks happen. The chairman of
the House Armed Services Committee when asked what he would have done if he had the
intelligence that Trump had about imminent attacks. He responded that he would have done
nothing. Ignorance of that level is incomprehensible, and the Dems complain Trump should 
have gotten permission from Congress!!!  That he should have asked Adam Schiff????  If he 
had not acted, and then when there were the attacks and Americans died, they would have 
condemned Trump for having the intel and doing nothing.  A lot of Americans possibly would 
have died. Are they just stupid, or so partisan and hateful of Trump they cannot understand 
what is happening. I think it is both. If it is partisan, then it is it also immensely stupid, as it 
undermines the US threat to Iran,and just emboldens them. The idiots say this will mean 
retaliation and possibly some dead Americans. Yes, but they forget a whole series of attacks 
was imminent, and there would have possibly been many more dead Americans had Trump 
not acted.

Now Iran needs to think -if I do this, Trump is going to destroy my refineries, and much of my 
military. Maybe he is even going to blow me up. He is willing to act decisively and violently . A 
total change from Obama Biden appeasement and fear. The US is now in position to take out 
their navy bases, cyberattack headquarters, and revolutionary guard bases in a very short 
amount of time. If we do that, then the Iranian people will possibly be empowered to rise up 
again if the RCG bases are wiped out inside Iran. The Iranians now know, Trump offered to 
talk, but he is fully prepared to kill any of them if needed, and destroy their ability to pose a 
threat.  The Iranian economy is in free fall, and riots have been in all the cities.  The Iranians 
are out of money to support and pay the proxies. The Dems and press ignore all of that. The 
Dems and press think we should cower in fear of an attack and reassert the nuke deal. That is 
exactly what has brought us to Iran being in the position they are in-Obama gave them license 
and money to kill.  Trump said, I have warned you, and if you do anything I will wipe you out, 
and has proven he can and will do it. It is Iran that is in fear of what might happen. The Dems 
are a real danger to American security. 

Dems rage about Chinese human rights issues, and Saudis killing one journalist, but Iran is 
free to kill 1,000 citizens, and arrest thousands and torture more, but did we hear any 
resolution in Congress about human rights in Iran. Crickets. They could not even pass a 
resolution condemning anti-Semitism, and now we have numerous anti-Semitic attacks in 
NYC. Do we hear anything from the Dems in Congress.  Crickets. The Dems clearly do not 
understand the uses of raw power in geopolitics. Instead we had years under Obama Biden of 
a deteriorating military, and restraints on fracking, making us weak, and no real threat, plus 
$150 billion of cash funding to the Iranians. That just encouraged Iran to spread its terror. Now 
we have a powerful military, energy independence, and the will to use power in audacious 
ways. Kim are you paying attention!. Putin are you listening. Trump totally changed the 
calculus for the whole world, and the mullahs do not know what to do next. Now they have a 
lot more to worry about. The rest of the world has to be saying -Oh Sh--  he could really do 
anything. If pushed too far he will unleash fire and fury. He is not the isolationist we thought 
when American lives and facilities are at risk. Few people understand that Trump grew up in 
the NY construction industry with the mob in control. He had to deal with them all the time on 
his projects. I had several direct dealings with the mob, and once they threatened to kill me 
because they felt I had screwed them in a deal I sold to them. I did in fact. For some reason 
they never did try to kill me. They are nice guys so long as you do not screw with them. Once 
on another occasion, I was meeting with some mob guys who were very pleasant to deal with. 
At one point, as we were inspecting an abandoned factory, they told me how they had just 
been planning to kill some guy by dumping him the river with cement boots, but they decided 
to let him live because his wife and kid needed him. They told me this like they were 
discussing the weather. It was just business. This was the real world Trump lived in much of 
his early life. I get it, having experienced it firsthand several times. My view of him is he is like 
the mob.  A nice guy face to face, and willing to let you live if you behave, but once he warns 
you, then you better not screw with him, or you die. The world has misread Trump completely. 
They thought he would never take action even though he had warned them clearly not to kill 
an American. Now they know. Heed the warning. This is not Obama trying to appease 
everyone, and afraid to do anything.

With the price of oil up, fracking  production will rise, and there is always the strategic reserve
to keep oil and gas prices down inside the US. None of this could have happened if fracking 
had been shut off by the Dems. Geopolitics changed entirely with fracking, but neither the 
Dems, the press, nor the campus left wingers have any understanding of any of this.

The Dem comments are beyond stupid and disgraceful. Here we have killed the world’s top 
terrorist, and they are claiming it was a bad idea because there will be retaliation. They are like
a bunch of scared kids- oh he might hit me. When Obama ordered the killing of Bin Laden he 
was a hero for the exact same action, and he never told Congress, but they never objected. 
They claim Trump has no strategy.  What do they think is happening, that Trump just is sitting 
around, and says let’s kill this guy on a whim. Rand Paul says now diplomacy is dead. It was 
never alive. And what is next from the Dems. Impeachment in the midst of all of this.  
Demands by Dems to stop Trump from acting against Iran. Iran is our sworn enemy, and the 
Dems want to prevent Trump from acting to defend US troops and facilities. That is insane and
just encourages the Iranians. The Iranians and others likely now will do anything to help defeat 
Trump. Their lives depend on it. The Dems are disgraceful. Attacking Trump, and impeachment, 
just when we need to be united and strong. It is a replay of the thirties when Congress thought 
we could stay out of the war. Do they ever read a history book. Do they never learn anything. 
It is the Dems and press who are posing a true risk to our  security.  Can you imagine if one of 
the Dem candidates was president and nothing had been done to stop the pending attacks 
Trump acted to stop. It used to be that the partisan fights stopped in times of peril. Not now. 

Here are some current economic stats that tell you where we really are:  It is likely the ten year
remains around 2% all year, and into the next year. Inflation is likely to remain under or around
2%. Unemployment around 3.5% is likely to continue and with the four trade deals and Boeing
going back into production by spring, that will possibly decline further. 2018 economic 
forecasts were almost universally wrong, by a lot. Thus my caution about paying a lot of 
attention to the talking heads and fancy forecast models. Models have loads of assumptions, 
and one or two bad assumptions throws off the whole thing. Tariffs have created uncertainty 
which caused CEO’s to be too cautious, and they still think a  recession is a risk, so they are 
not investing in capex the way they need to. Capex and hiring essentially has flat lined. 
Farmers, manufacturing, and thus transport all suffered downturns. This is likely to all change 
with the 4 trade deals. (China, USMCA, Japan and S Korea). The good news due to Iran, is oil
prices are now at a place where fracking again makes economic sense, so cap ex in the oil 
patch might rise, but so will gas prices. Some models suggest tariffs took .5% off GDP. And 
added .3% to unemployment. I do not have a model, so I do not know. But if that is true, then GDP should grow nicely in 2020, 
especially when Boeing returns.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         TenYear Ten year rates are down 100 BP from where they were in 2018, and from where economists 
and the Fed forecast they would be at the end of 2019.  The reduction in rates is key to 
housing, with mortgage rates below 4%,  that is the trigger point that accelerates housing 
demand. We are below 4%. So the housing market should be strong in 2020, and that is very 
good for the economy. The housing vacancy rate is at a 35 year low including multi and single 
family, and going lower. There is already a shortage of 1.6 million units, and the demand is 
now annually running1.7 mill, but only building 1.4 mill, so the built up demand situation is 
getting worse. All of the shortage is in low and moderate income units, but costs to build 
including land is too high. 2.5 cents more of average aggregate increased household net worth
is generating an added .5% of GDP due to the wealth effect. The stock market matters. 
Savings are now around 8%, near a new high, and boomers are higher than that. That is good 
for covering retirement along with the higher home values and stock values which will generate
much more for retirement than most forecasters expected. When the Dems claim only the rich 
are benefiting, it is nonsense. The high dollar will continue to be a drag on export demand, but 
it keeps inflation low. The dollar is not at risk for now of being replaced by anything. China will 
be better off with the trade deal, but they will go back to their program of pushing to reduce the
massive excess leverage in their economy, and that will  be a further damper on Chines growth
. That then dampens growth in emerging markets dependent on selling commodities. The EU 
will remain in major problems.

The risk in residential is in Fannie, Freddie and FHA. The major banks are out of this market 
now. It is almost all small nonbank lenders who are dependent on credit lines. If there is a 
financial downturn, they could lose their lines and then the agency market could crash. Or the 
big banks could step in and acquire the portfolios and save the day.

Household debt service to income is the lowest in two generations, and debt total to income 
the lowest in one generation. So when you hear talking heads say rising consumer debt is a 
problem, ignore that. Consumers are in financially the best shape in 50-60 years. A massive 
refi of mortgages to low rates has made a huge difference, so now consumers are able to 
spend and save more. Record stock prices and home values have made consumer balance 
sheets the best ever, and have a  wealth effect. Households hold $30 trillion of stocks, double 
the prior high, and another $30 trillion of home value,  20% above the prior high, so when the 
claim only rich guys hold stocks, it is a blatant lie. 50% of all workers own some stock in a 
401K or otherwise. Those numbers are double the prior high. Good for more consumer 
spending. Boomers are now able to save much more for retirement than they had been able to
do, so the crisis in that retirement age group may not be so bad as first thought. 25-30 year 
old’s never saved money, so ignore the warnings that they are not saving now.

Commercial Real Estate has increased 8% per annum since the crash. This is likely to flatten 
out as rates will not likely drop from here. CRE is very vulnerable to rate rises now. The best 
types are warehouse, industrial and apartments, but high end residential is now getting over 
built so is more risky, depending on the market. In NYC it is already badly down.

The federal debt outstanding is now 80% of GDP and headed to 100% by 2030. A real risk 
long term. All stock measured by the Wilshire 5000 is now at a 15 PE vs long term 9.  Worst 
was 18X in the tech bubble. Earnings need to start growing more to justify these levels, and 
interest rates need to remain low. Margins are getting pressed by labor costs but the lowering 
of tariffs will help a little. AI should help mitigate rising labor costs and raise productivity, but it 
is unclear when and by how much. We need to continue to have high stock prices to have the 
wealth effect to push consumers to spend.  

The biggest risks are geopolitical and the US election. There are protests and violence around
the world now as populism takes hold. It is especially bad in S America, the Mideast and 
France, with other parts of the EU at risk. This is escalating now in many countries that had 
been stable, like Chile. The US is somewhat insulated, but not totally. It is highly likely Trump 
is reelected, but in case he is not, the markets and the economy will tank given the candidates,
other than Bloomberg. Bloomberg is the only viable candidate, but it is 11 months away. 
Impeachment is a non-issue for almost everyone.

2020 will be a wild ride for sure.
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