Thursday, November 23, 2023

British Journalist. PIPES Assesses, Massive Missile Attack From Hezbollah As I Expected. More.

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Interviews with Daniel Pipes

Assessing the Terrible Israel-Hamas Hostage Deal

L'Informale

https://www.danielpipes.org/22038/the-terrible-israel-hamas-hostage-deal


L'Informale title: "A half failure looks more likely"

L'Informale: Please comment on the Israel-Hamas hostage deal.

Daniel Pipes: Where does one start? 1. Benjamin Netanyahu made his name as a counterterrorism specialist who repeatedly insisted that one does not negotiate with terrorists. 2. Israel has a very painful history of releasing security prisoners who then went on to wreak destruction on it; Yahya Sinwar, a leader behind Oct. 7 is just the latest example. 3. Israel passed a law in 2014 forbidding exactly this sort of exchange; how is this legal?



L'Informale: Will the deal prevent Israel from achieving victory in Gaza?

DP: I expect so, yes. The government issued a statement insisting it "will continue the war to ... complete the elimination of Hamas and ensure that there will be no new threat to the State of Israel from Gaza," but I believe those to be hollow words. In addition to the hostage deal, Israel has resumed providing water, fuel, and food to Gaza. It feels like a return to Oct. 7, just with with greater destruction in Gaza.

L'InformaleAlex Nachumson writes that "freeing the Israelis hostages, brutally ripped from their homes, should be a paramount goal of the operations. But ... the hostages are more likely to be released when Hamas feel their time is running out, when they feel the Israeli boot on their neck." Do you agree?

DP: Yes. But more fundamentally, one cannot fight a war if the families of hostages sit in the war room and have a large role in determining strategy.

L'Informale: Qatar has had a major role in brokering the deal as financier of Islamism and also as mediator between terrorists and democracies. Your opinion?

DPHafiz al-Asad, the dictator of Syria, in the 1980s played a game of arsonist and firefighter; he supported the groups that captured American and other hostages, then ceremoniously released them, to wide acclaim. Qatar's Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani has now reprised this role, with no less skill.

All smiles: Qatar's Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Doha in December 2019.

L'Informale: The U.S. government has seemingly attempted to steer Israel's response almost from Oct. 7. Is that in fact the case?

DP: Very much so. In retrospect, Joe Biden's strong support for Israel looks like both a true emotional response and also an effort to gain influence over the government.

L'Informale: How much is Israel's foreign policy influenced by Washington's wishes?

DP: Washington's influence fluctuates. As a rule, it increases in times of good relations and decreases in times of bad ones. That's why I prefer not-so-good relations. That way, Israel makes fewer mistakes under American pressure.

No smiles: Obama and Netanyahu disliked each other - and that benefited Israel.

L'Informale: In a recent article of yours titled "Israel Has Quickly Reverted to Its Bad Old Policies"; why so?

DP: For the same reason that Palestinians invariably revert to their bad policies: because powerful historical mentalities have trapped both sides. No matter how dysfunctional, the same attitudes and reflexes reappear ad nauseum: Palestinian rejectionism and Israeli conciliation. Immediately after Oct. 7, it seemed that Israelis had broken with conciliation; now we see that was not the case, at least among the politicians and the security establishment.

L'Informale: Why has Israel never achieved victory against its Palestinian enemies?

DP: Because it never tried. Israel successfully defeated its Arab state enemies – Egypt, Jordan, and Syria in particular – but it desisted from pressing its advantage against the Palestinians. Think 1982, when it desisted from killing Yasir Arafat. Or 1993, when it gave him control over adjoining territory. Or 2005, when it unilaterally withdrew from Gaza.

L'Informale: How will Israel's war against Hamas end: a failure, a half-failure, or victory?

DP: A half failure looks most likely. Perhaps popular dissatisfaction with the war against Hamas will then lead to an anger that brings on a change that ends the historic Israeli mentality of conciliation.

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As I warned.  This war will expand because Iran knows they have the upper hand since Biden is reluctant to  do anything bold.  He would rather eat ice cream.

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Hezbollah Unleashes Massive Rocket Barrage at Northern Israel in Day-Long Drizzle

Iran’s Lebanese proxy Hezbollah unleashed a massive barrage of rockets aimed at northern Israel midday on Thursday, but that came amidst a day-long drizzle of rocket and anti-tank missile fire targeting Israeli civilians and soldiers.

An Israeli air strike damaged a house in southern Lebanon overnight, killing five Hezbollah operatives. Among the dead was Abbas Mohammed Ra’ed (also known as Sarraj Raed), the son of the chair of Hezbollah’s faction in the Lebanese Parliament — a death that Hezbollah vowed would not go unanswered.

Five Hezbollah operatives were killed in the strike, including the son of Hezbollah’s faction chairman in the Lebanese parliament. 

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The rocket fire from Lebanon started Thursday morning at around 8:30 am and continued throughout the day in a clear escalation as the situation continues to heat up along the northern border.

Red Alert incoming rocket warning sirens were activated more than a dozen times during the morning and early afternoon hours in Arab al-Aramshe, Moshav Betzet, Shlomi, Kibbutz Sasa, Kibbutz Manara, Margaliot, Kiryat Shmona, the Meron Field School, Dalton, Gush Halav and elsewhere across the north.

Two homes in Kibbutz Manara were struck by anti-tank fire late in the morning hours, but no physical injuries were reported.

At around 12:30 pm, Hezbollah fired a particularly intense barrage of dozens of rockets towards northern Israel, the largest such barrage from Lebanon since the start of the war on October 7. Many were intercepted by the Iron Dome aerial defense system and others landed in open areas.

IDF soldiers returned artillery fire to the sources of the attacks. In one incident, IDF soldiers attacked an additional launcher using the “Iron Sting” weapon system

In addition, Hezbollah launched a number of anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) and mortar attacks at various locations along Israel’s border with Lebanon. The terrorist group claimed that it carried out four attacks against IDF military posts.

Israeli forces attacked the launchers from which the rocket and anti-tank missile fire emanated, the IDF said.

Earlier in the day, IDF aircraft opened fire after spotting an anti-tank missile cell near the area of Zarit in northern Israel, while IDF artillery simultaneously targeted the same cell.

Overnight, a surface-to-air missile was launched toward IDF aircraft in Lebanon. “The missile was successfully intercepted by the IDF Aerial Defense Array,” the IDF. In response to the attack, IDF aircraft struck the launcher and a weapons storage post as well.

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Minister Akunis: Hostage deal was 'deal with the devil' but had to be done

Science and Technology Minister Ofir Akunis tells Arutz Sheva the hostage deal is not the end of the war but the beginning.

Science and Technology Minister Ofir Akunis (Likud) spoke to Israel National News - Arutz Sheva about the deal reached with the Hamas terrorist organization to free 50 of the 240 hostages who are being held in Gaza.

"It's a very complicated issue, because we are dealing with the devil. Hamas - this is the devil on earth," Akunis explained. "But we said that we will do whatever is necessary to bring out hostages home to Israel, to their families."

"If you want to be a leader, you need to decide in the difficult moments, not in the easiest moments. So I voted [in favor], with the majority of the government," he said.

He stated emphatically that the four-day pause in fighting Israel agreed to as part of the hostage deal is not the end of the war against Hamas, but is "just the beginning."

"It's not a ceasefire, it's not the end. We will continue the war, and we will defeat the evil," he said.

Minister Akunis said that Israel has two main goals, the first of which is "to be sure that we will not see the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip at all."

The second is "to bring all our people home to Israel, to their families."

Akunis warned that Israel will face "huge pressure" to agree to what he called the "wrong formula" of the Two State Solution when the current war ends, which he believes would threaten Israel's security in a similar way Israel's withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 paved the way for Hamas to launch thousands of rockets at Israel and ultimately carry out the massacre of October 7.

"We lost a lot of soldiers. We lost them to establish a Palestinian State in Judea and Samaria? This is unacceptable," he said.

And:

Seizing defeat from the jaws of victory

Why do we negotiate as if we were losing?

By DOUGLAS ALTABEF

The war in Gaza, “Swords of Iron,” is a tale of two battles. The battle on the ground is going very well, with IDF units slowly, deliberately and successfully dismantling Hamas’s command and control in northern Gaza, while simultaneously laying bare the shameful hypocrisy of an organization that is content to utilize human shields however and wherever they can be found.

We have killed thousands of terrorists, captured almost a thousand, seized vital intelligence and control assets located in previously thought-to-be impregnable locations

We have surprised and shocked Hamas not only with the vehemence of our engagement but also with a game plan that thankfully does not repeat past practice. We have confused and confounded our enemy with deftness, agility, and above all, breathtaking coordination among our military forces. And we have achieved this great success with far fewer casualties than many had feared.

What other than our success on the ground could send Hamas to seek relief, using the hostages they have taken as bait and leverage? Fair enough, it’s what one would expect

But what we should never expect, yet are seeing playing out before our eyes, is a response by our leaders that seems far less reflective of the reality on the ground.

Our leadership is prepared to accept a paltry return of hostages, a return obviously crafted so as to elongate the hiatus in the fighting, disrupt the momentum and morale of our soldiers, and above all, endanger our soldiers and their efforts.

A confident government, leveraging off a successful army, would be demanding, not asking, for the following conditions in order to effect any kind of a hiatus in the fighting:

1. First and foremost, we must be talking about releasing all hostages, not 50 or 70 or some time-release formula that might produce 100. If there is to be a deal, it is for everyone. And at once. Otherwise, the IDF just keeps going.

2. The status of the hostages must be verified before we agree to release any terrorists from our prisons (The leadership’s insistence that the releasees are not murderers is a bit disingenuous. This is only the case because their plans were thwarted.). For lack of a better alternative, this might have to be done in conjunction with the Red Cross

3. The swapping of hostages for terrorists takes place over one day, during which there will be no shooting by either side, and aerial surveillance will continue.

4. The bodies of IDF soldiers Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul must be returned as part of this swap, as well as civilian Avera Mengistu, who may or may not still be alive.

Why is this seen to be unachievable, even naïve? We are strong, we are willing to fight on and on, and the people of Israel are unrelenting. The calls for releasing hostages now are understandable and searing. Any of us caught in the hell of waiting and worrying about loved ones would likely do the same.

But we also have to remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice so that Israel could survive, and survive without existential threats on our borders.

The souls of these magnificent soldiers, as well as the 1,200 brutally murdered on Oct. 7, cry out, not for vengeance but for justice and for the protection of Israelis too numerous to count against continued terror, horror and barbarism.

As I write this, on Thanksgiving Day no less, the deal has been announced and approved by our government, but somehow not yet fully approved by Hamas. Shockingly, that which had previously been agreed to by Hamas, such as visitation by the Red Cross to all abductees is being reneged upon.

Have we no experience in trying to negotiate with these murderous slimeballs? Do we really think that even the terrible deal that was negotiated will be honored

Wait until, inevitably, Hamas starts shooting during the truce. Will we turn the other cheek or downplay the violations? You can set your watch by all these things happening.

I say: Stop the music! No Red Cross, no deal. Thanks, it was a good effort, but we too have reneged and changed our minds.

The real risk of the deal that our leaders have made is that it will inevitably sap us of the drive, desire and determination to proceed with the dismantling of Hamas. This of course is Hamas’s game plan, which it will implement with a long-term schedule of hostage releases, the last of which will be scheduled for a week and a half before Moshiach comes.

The whole idea is brilliantly cynical, but why should we be party to it? Why should play into the hands of our despicable enemy and its fellow travelers around the world?

The great irony of the war is that our success has brought us predictable condemnation, but also immense respect in the Arab world. Why else would Hezbollah be so tepid in its efforts to be part of the “resistance?” Any Lebanese watching the footage of the ruination of Gaza City has to think more than twice about the prospect of that happening close to home.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is justifiably proud of his standing up to and resisting the entreaties of foreign leaders, particularly American presidents, to acquiesce in the appeasement of Iran.

But the situation Israel now confronts is of a more intense and imminent order, and the presence of that same degree of steadfastness is certainly questionable.

Yes, there has been a lot of contact and jaw-boning, but what we really need is a digging in of our leadership’s heels that says, yes, we want hostages returned, of course we do, but we must absolutely do that in the context of achieving the cleansing of the toxicity that exists along our border.

Removing Hamas is our preeminent and nonnegotiable goal. Any machinations that could threaten achieving that goal must be thwarted.

I shudder to think what this country will feel like if we wake up one day to the realization that the great sacrifices made by us to eliminate the evil at our border have been in vain.

May we show the same clarity, commitment and courage that our soldiers have. We owe that to them, to the murdered, and yes, to the hostages as well.

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MIDDLE EAST
Hamas Releases First Group of Hostages Under Deal With Israel
 READ MORE

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Not many in England.

BRITISH JOURNALIST DOUGLAS MURRAY - A GREAT FRIEND OF ISRAEL ! WHEN HE EXPLAINS A SUBJECT IT'S REAL BRILLIANT ! GET TO KNOW HIM !


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