As I often say, I am a pessimist by nature and a contrarian thinker. As the Jewish New Year begins I decided, as I always do, to put on my optimistic yarmulke and use that as a basis for judging the ensuing year. That said, I still believe a pessimist is someone who has met too many optimists.
So what can go right:
Trends have a way of dying and reversing. America is a very big country and, as a people, we tire quickly and are an impatient lot - "Go West type.". Also, the mass media is in business to make money, no longer inform just entertain. T they can only devote so much time to a single subject. Therefore, I believe the nation is tiring of riots and soon we will have calmer streets, particularly if Trump is re-elected because he will assume he was to stop this nonsense and Atty Gen Barr is certainly in that camp.
Second, if Trump is re-elected, I believe the economy will recover faster, momentum and consumer attitudes/confidence will improve and we will get back on track and head in the pre-pandemic direction which was basically favorable.
Third, I do believe Trump will be re-elected so that bodes well for 2 above. Can you imagine America recharging itself from Biden's gloomy rhetoric, Kamala's nastiness and carping pressure from the Bernie, AOC , Muslim wing of the radical Democrat Party? I see it as a turn off and I do not believe that is what most Americans want to experience after having their lives so impacted by China.
Fourth, should Amy become the next Justice then the prospect of The SCOTUS's direction will, over time, move away from legislating and less controversial decisions might ensue. Liberals will continue to scream and yell but so what. It is now time for conservative thinking to become more prominent and controlling. This means a return to our base, so to speak. More oil on the turbulent waters.
Fifth, awareness of the threat China poses has come front and center and away from Russia. Putin will continue to be a menace but Russia is not the force/power they once were and China is an even greater and growing threat.
Trump is aware of both the military and commercial threat China poses and you cannot confront a problem unless you are aware it even exists. When it comes to corporate theft, using our universities to spy etc. Trump and, now, the Pentagon are aware and even a few members of Congress are up to speed. This can be a rallying point for congressional bi-partisanship.
Fifth, prospects for improving Israeli/Arab relationships, and the blessings that can flow from that, are just beginning to sprout.
Sixth, what Trump began was short circuited politically, legally and administratively by renegade radical Trump Hating Congress persons, namely led by Schumer and Pelosi and I believe Americans are fed up with them and the same for AOC and her Muslim and black congressional nut cases like Waters.
Consequently, Trump should have plenty of opposition but it will not be as disruptive and effective. The man is an impatient, intolerant doer and has learned what power he has at his disposal and can now use same more effectively and in a less encumbered/restricted manner.
There is much that needs to be done by way of infrastructure, MAGA, health care, protecting the survival of SS, Medicare and other critical commitments etc.
I am sure I missed a few items and, of course, where are the unknowns that can throw progress into a cocked hat?
One, Iran's desire for retribution and the Ayatollah's need to survive.
Two, Too much debt and unfunded pension funds.
Three, the ever present threat from the Soros's types who are well funded and committed to bring about our republic's demise. In this category I put the Obama crowd.
I hope my silent majority, deplorable optimism is justified.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ This from a dear friend and former institutional client:
My latest dispatch for the Wall Street Journal
Click here for the full story.
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