a 
Every time a rioter throws a brick through a window it could mean Trump will have a smashing victory.
And:
The brain is one of the most amazing organs. We know a lot about how it works but it still remains a medical and scientific mystery.
What am I getting at? Last night, before I went to bed, I was reading "Citizens of London" and am now half way through this interesting biography of the Second World War and the interaction of Churchill, FDR with three Americans, Amb. Winant, adviser Harriman and Broadcaster. Murrow, among others.
When I woke up this morning,the first thing to pop into my head was the type of people Trump needed business-wise and surrounded himself with when he was a New York Real Estate Developer versus the type of persons required as president. The contrast is similar but also totally different.
As a developer, he needed "muscle" fixer types who could get things done with a , more or less, corrupt local system of city agency bureaucrats, union bosses, shop foreman's and their ilk..
As president, he still needed to accomplish but this time he had to deal with the entire nation's political system at the local as well as the national level and he had, at his disposal, an entire nation of highly intelligent , even brilliant, experts from all fields and walks of life.
Both being a real estate developer and president still meant coping with human ego's, pettiness,hypocrisy and dishonest motives but, as president, it was at a higher level and the consequences were broader, larger and the failures more consequential and national, even worldly, in scope.
His opponents, both in the political spectrum and among the mass media, used his former life and relationships to define him and his dealings as president. Anything he did,in a personnel sense, was naturally deemed a reflection of his former life. Trump , nor any president, can escape these connections.Truman was always a bankrupt haberdasher, Ike a Kansas farm boy, Kennedy an elite socialite from Camelot, Trump a manipulative mover, shaker, TV personality and unzipped playboy etc.
More particularly, in Trump's case, since he was not expected to beat the anointed Hillary and thoroughly embarrass the mass media, which was no longer filled with dedicated brilliance like the Murrow's Severeid's, Reynold's et al, their bad mouth attachment has been a permanent impediment.
I am not seeking to make excuses for Trump's frailties just put things in perspective from my own vantage.
Therefore, considering what Trump has been up against, what has hit him unexpectedly, much over which he had no control and what has happened to him and thus, our nation, is both tragic and also amazing. He has made unbelievable adjustments going from a real estate developer to a president and politicians in the space of 4 years among a den of thieves, liars and, as GW said, "evil doers." So any of his many accomplishments have been derided, attributed to his sleazy predecessor and undercut by events, not of his own doing.
The Atlantic Magazine did a hit job on him just recently, attributed to un-named sources and subsequently even denounced by some of Trump's own vocal detractors.
In totality, I continue to assert, history will judge him more fairly and they will conclude he was one of our most important and effective presidents. Why? Because he changed the failed orthodoxy, accomplished much that was good and needed correction and did it in an inimical style that was never tried.
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When governors and mayors defy laws of the United States, as in the matter of sanctuary cities, and still expect federal funding I find that hypocritical and when city officials fail to uphold their sworn oaths and allow their cities to be torched,because they want to support unlawful behaviour in support of political statements, they too do not deserve the munificence of tax payers.
Trump takes action to pull federal funds from NYC, other cities that ‘permit anarchy’
President Donald Trump has ordered federal agencies to find ways to “defund” cities that have permitted “anarchy” amid the ongoing riots...
And:
Ultimately there is a price to pay for aberrant behaviour.
And why:
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A cogent argument with which I am in total agreement.
In less than four short years,Trump has proven he is not only a fast learner but an effective one.
I Was Never Trump. Not Anymore.
He has weaknesses, but his presidency has been successful.
By Michael L Krauss
In 2016 I wrote in the name of Rep. Paul Ryan for president. I knew that the policies Hillary Clinton advocated were detrimental to the nation, but I simply couldn’t bring myself to vote for her rival. I found Donald Trump boorish and misogynistic, and I was dumbfounded that he had captured the GOP nomination. When the dust settled in November 2016, I was glad Mrs. Clinton was defeated. But I winced whenever I heard the president-elect speak.
Back then I thought I was a Never Trumper. Now I realize I was wrong. If the election took place today, I would vote to re-elect President Trump.
I still find Mr. Trump’s style grating, and I cringe at his narcissism. Some of his junior subordinates are wanting in talent or experience. His friendliness with the dictators of Russia and North Korea is wrong-headed, even dangerous. As for ethics, I believe he hasn’t sufficiently ensured that his hotel empire derives no profit from hosting U.S. and foreign government officials. And I think the president clearly doesn’t understand the principle of mutual gains from trade.
Notwithstanding these weaknesses, I believe that the Trump presidency has been, to a large extent, successful. Mr. Trump survived a politicized, even somewhat corrupt impeachment campaign. He has confronted a once-in-a-century virus of foreign origin in good faith and with candor. Despite often-contemptuous hostility by the elite press, and outright civil disobedience by several federal judges, the president has performed his duties and genuinely tried to keep his promises.
He not only insisted that immigration conform to the rule of law, but advocated for and (where legally permitted) built a border wall. The president has appointed more than 200 federal judges, most of whom are superb and committed to finding the law, not making it up. He has followed through on his promise to reduce taxes and to begin deregulating the economy, creating a remarkable boom that reduced unemployment for minorities to the lowest rates ever recorded.
On the foreign-policy front, the president promoted a historic peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, with more deals hopefully to come soon. He formally recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the U.S. Embassy there (as former presidents promised to do but never did). Mr. Trump withdrew from the disastrous Iran nuclear deal, the signing of which was possibly the single worst act of the Obama presidency. The president eliminated Iranian terrorist mastermind Qasem Soleimani, essentially crushed ISIS, and neutralized its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. He signed the Taylor Force Act into law, cutting off aid to the Palestinian Authority as long as it pays support to the families of terrorists. Mr. Trump recognized that a cold war exists with China, and he has taken concrete steps to counter that country’s efforts to weaken our republic.
As an educator, I especially appreciate that the president has stood firm against the boycott, divestment and sanctions movement and signed an executive order combating anti-Semitism on college campuses. His administration has sued to crack down on racial discrimination in admissions at my alma mater, Yale, and has reversed the federal government’s prior encouragement of kangaroo courts on college campuses. K-12 is mostly a state responsibility, but Mr. Trump deserves credit for promoting school choice to advance poor communities, despite unrelenting opposition from teachers’ unions.
Last but certainly not least, the president has named many excellent cabinet members, more than a few of whom have—in collaboration with Vice President Mike Pence—on several occasions served to channel his instincts in positive directions.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, is weak and presides over a party that coddles extremists and sometimes seems to condone riotous violence. President Trump deserves re-election, and this time I’ll cast my vote for him.
Mr. Krauss is a professor emeritus of law at George Mason University.
And:
Last night we were driving to pick up Chinese Food and I caught a bit of Trump's Latrobe, Pa. visit. It was more like listening to a stand-up comedian. It was pure random free flowing association but he also worked in his political messages. Totally un-orthodox but also entertaining. He is a marketing genius.
Last night we were driving to pick up Chinese Food and I caught a bit of Trump's Latrobe, Pa. visit. It was more like listening to a stand-up comedian. It was pure random free flowing association but he also worked in his political messages. Totally un-orthodox but also entertaining. He is a marketing genius.
And then let's discuss Flip Flop :
Biden did his shtick and shoots more supporters (Me Too Movement) and winds up visiting with Jacob Blake Sr, an avowed anti-Semite. Maybe he should stay in his cave and, instead of being Biden 'Hide'n, he can become Cave Man.
Biden was against drilling but that did not play well so now he favors it but not on federal lands. He was for de-funding police and that did not go well so he still wants to de-fund but calls it shifting fund to be used to hire social workers. If you take from A and give to B, last time I looked A still has less no matter how you explain it way. He also realized, not calling out rioters was not going down well with soccer mom types so he now favors those who riot and destroy cities be arrested but ignores BLM and Antifa as being involved.
He also is being coached/advised by the likes of Hillary not to concede should he lose the election. If this happens it would be the equivalent of the last straw.
-metoo-
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Sent to me by a dear fiend and fellow memo reader:
Gaslighting
"Have you ever asked yourself, ‘am I crazy?’ If you have ever asked yourself that, you’re
not crazy. You’re most likely being gaslighted. Gaslighting is a form of psychological
abuse aimed at controlling a person by altering reality to the point where the person wil
l doubt their own sanity.
The term “gaslighting” comes from a 1930’s play called Gas Light. The main character in
the play literally tries to drive his wife crazy by gradually dimming the gas-powered lights
in their home. When she notices the lights dimming, her husband not only denies that the
lights are dimming, he convinces her that she is imagining it to the point where she
questions her own sanity.
We are living in a perpetual state of gaslighting. The reality that we are being told by the
media is at complete odds with what we are seeing with our own two eyes. And when we
question the false reality that we are being presented, or we claim that what we see is that
actual reality, we are vilified as racist or bigots or just plain crazy. You’re not racist.
You’re not crazy. You’re being gaslighted.
New York State has twice as many deaths from Covid-19 than any other state, and New
York has accounted for one fifth of all Covid-19 deaths, but we are told that New York
Governor Andrew Cuomo has handled the pandemic better than any other governor. But if
we support policies of Governors whose states had only a fraction of the infections and
deaths as New York, we’re called anti-science and want people to die. So, we ask
ourselves, am I crazy? No, you’re being gaslighted.
We see mobs of people looting stores, smashing windows, setting cars on fire and burning
down buildings, but we are told that these demonstrations are peaceful protests. And when
we call this destruction of our cities, riots, we are called racists. So, we ask ourselves, am I
crazy? No, you’re being gaslighted.
We see the major problem destroying many inner-cities is crime; murder, gang violence,
dealing, drive-by shootings, armed robbery, but we are told that it is not crime, but the
police that are the problem in the inner-cities. We are told we must defund the police and
remove law enforcement from crime-riddled cities to make them safer. But if we advocate
for more policing in cities overrun by crime, we are accused of being white supremacists
and racists. So, we ask ourselves, am I crazy? No, you’re being gaslighted.
The United States of America accepts more immigrants than any other country in the world.
The vast majority of the immigrants are “people of color”, and these immigrants are
enjoying freedom and economic opportunity not available to them in their country of
origin but we are told that the United States is the most racist and oppressive country on
the planet, and if we disagree, we are called racist and xenophobic. So, we ask ourselves,
am I crazy? No, you’re being gaslighted.
Capitalist countries are the most prosperous countries in the world. The standard of living
is the highest in capitalist countries. We see more poor people move up the economic
ladder to the middle and even the wealthy class through their effort and ability in capitalist
countries than any other economic system in the world, but we are told capitalism is an
oppressive system designed to keep people down. So, we ask ourselves, am I crazy? No,
you’re being gaslighted.
Communist countries killed over 100 million people in the 20th century. Communist
countries strip their citizens of basic human rights, dictate every aspect of their lives, treat
their citizens like slaves, and drive their economies into the ground, but we are told that
Communism is the fairest, most equitable, freest and most prosperous economic system in
the world. So, we ask ourselves, am I crazy? No, you’re being gaslighted.
The most egregious example of gaslighting is the concept of “white fragility”. You spend
your life trying to be a good person, trying to treat people fairly and with respect. You
disavow racism and bigotry in all its forms. You judge people solely on the content of their
character and not by the color of their skin. You don’t discriminate based on race or
ethnicity. But you are told you are a racist, not because of something you did or said, but
solely because of the color of your skin. You know instinctively that charging someone
with racism because of their skin color is itself racist. You know that you are not racist, so
you defend yourself and your character, but you are told that your defense of yourself is
proof of your racism. So, we ask ourselves, am I crazy? No, you’re being gaslighted.
Gaslighting has become one of the most pervasive and destructive tactics in American
politics. It is the exact opposite of what our political system was meant to be. It deals in
lies and psychological coercion, and not the truth and intellectual discourse. If you ever
ask yourself if you’re crazy, you are not. Crazy people aren’t sane enough to ask
themselves if they’re crazy. So, trust yourself, believe what’s in your heart. Trust our eyes
over what we are told. Never listen to the people who tell you that you are crazy, because
you are not, you’re being gaslighted."
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Where there is intent, anything can be manipulated and de-frauded. I believe the intent, regarding this election, is
heightened and intense and I believe Trump is correct to urge the system be tested. What is wrong with testing?
Reagan said trust but verify and was not vilified. Everything Trump says is purposely misconstrued or reported on
in a biased manner.
https://www.foxnews.com/
-how-
-post-reporter
But hang on: What if the U.S. Postal Service falls down on the job? This spring in Ohio, 300
ballots showed up 13 days after an election, which the USPS blamed on an “unintentional
missort.” In 2016 roughly 75,000 absentee votes nationwide were rejected because they didn’t
make the deadline (compared with about 160,000 disqualified for suspect or missing signatures).
The USPS delivers most first-class mail in two to five days. What if a North Carolinian put a
ballot into that blue collection box a week before Election Day, but the tracking“If you mail in a
ballot a week before the election and it’s not showing up, or you’re not able to determine
whether or not it’s been accepted, you can vote in person,” Patrick Gannon, a spokesman for the
North Carolina Board of Elections, said on a press call Thursday. “If your ballot subsequently
arrives at the county board of elections, that vote will not be counted.”
Officials discourage this, and they might investigate it, but North Carolina’s fraud statute
requires bad intent. At least one state explicitly allows in-person voting to override an absentee
ballot, in case a swing voter doesn’t stay swung. “The Election Law recognizes that plans
change,” New York’s voting website says. “The Board of Elections is required to check the poll
book before canvassing any absentee ballot.”
heightened and intense and I believe Trump is correct to urge the system be tested. What is wrong with testing?
Reagan said trust but verify and was not vilified. Everything Trump says is purposely misconstrued or reported on
in a biased manner.
https://www.foxnews.com/
-how-
-post-reporter
Trump Says Vote Early and
Often
It’s dubious advice, but the media panic attack is revealing about this mail-vote
experiment.
By The Editorial Board
When President Trump objects to mass mail voting, the guardians of conventional wisdom rush
to assure the public that absentee ballots are secure. Phrases like “no evidence” of “widespread
fraud” are routine talking points. But then check out the panic attack this week.
Speaking in North Carolina on Wednesday, Mr. Trump told his supporters to mail an absentee
ballot, by all means. But he added that they should “check their vote,” by trying to cast a ballot
at the polls on Election Day, to see if they’re marked down already. “If their system is as good
as they say it is, then obviously they won’t be able to vote,” he said. “If it isn’t tabulated, they’ll
be able to vote.”
The press treated this as a bombshell, saying Mr. Trump had urged his fans to commit fraud by
illegally voting twice. For the record, we’d discourage anyone from taking Mr. Trump’s advice.
North Carolina’s Board of Elections put out a statement Thursday saying voters can find out
from home whether their mail ballots have arrived. Checking at the polls “is not necessary, and
it would lead to longer lines and the possibility of spreading COVID-19.”
If mail voting is as secure as everyone seems to want desperately to believe, though, isn’t Mr.
Trump correct to say that two-timers would be turned away? The system should be able to
handle such a test as routine. Instead the President’s suggestion was treated like an attack on
democracy. “It’s like advising someone to try to rob a bank to see if the security is as good as
But hang on: What if the U.S. Postal Service falls down on the job? This spring in Ohio, 300
ballots showed up 13 days after an election, which the USPS blamed on an “unintentional
missort.” In 2016 roughly 75,000 absentee votes nationwide were rejected because they didn’t
make the deadline (compared with about 160,000 disqualified for suspect or missing signatures).
The USPS delivers most first-class mail in two to five days. What if a North Carolinian put a
ballot into that blue collection box a week before Election Day, but the tracking“If you mail in a
ballot a week before the election and it’s not showing up, or you’re not able to determine
whether or not it’s been accepted, you can vote in person,” Patrick Gannon, a spokesman for the
North Carolina Board of Elections, said on a press call Thursday. “If your ballot subsequently
arrives at the county board of elections, that vote will not be counted.”
Officials discourage this, and they might investigate it, but North Carolina’s fraud statute
requires bad intent. At least one state explicitly allows in-person voting to override an absentee
ballot, in case a swing voter doesn’t stay swung. “The Election Law recognizes that plans
change,” New York’s voting website says. “The Board of Elections is required to check the poll
book before canvassing any absentee ballot.”
The responses to Attorney General Bill Barr’s remarks this week were even more obtuse. Mr.
Barr said that mass mail voting is “playing with fire,” suggesting that a foreign adversary could
counterfeit and submit fake ballots. One media fact-checker said there was no way that a
hostile power could pull this off without detection, as if the sudden appearance of thousands of
tainted ballots would, in itself, be no big deal.
Another fact-checker used the tried-and-true line: There’s no proof that a foreign adversary is
trying to counterfeit ballots. But wait, these folks also claim Mr. Trump isn’t taking Russian
election interference seriously.
The overreaction to Mr. Trump’s voting remarks betrays that there really could be an issue with
ballot integrity this fall. Yet the media-Democratic chorus only gets alarmed at the prospect that
Mr. Trump might exploit it. The reality is that both parties are gearing up to challenge mail-in
voting with lawsuits that could tie up the result of a close election for weeks. They’d do better
by the country if they paid more attention to the risks and reduced them.
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Kim calls out the changes in The Chamber of Commerce and now they will lose the support of
both aisles.
Chamber of Errors
The business lobby abandons free-market principles to back 23 freshman
Democrats.
By Kimberley Strassel
To err is Washington, and even the most seasoned Beltway players can be forgiven the
occasional strategic mistake. But deliberately ignoring history, evidence and principle by
engaging in an act that undermines one’s reason for existence is another matter. Meet the U.S.
Chamber of Commerce.
The nation’s premier business lobby this week finalized its decision to help re-elect 23 House
Democratic freshmen. Most of those endorsed spent their first term reliably voting to end U.S.
business as we know it. Of the chamber’s new favorite politicians, 20 have voted to abolish
right-to-work states; 18 said yes to a $15-an-hour federal minimum wage; and 14 supported the
House’s $3 trillion blowout, styled the Heroes Act—among other votes designed to crush the
life out of free markets. This from an organization whose tag line reads “Standing Up for
American Enterprise.” These days it’s more like “prostrating ourselves for crumbs.”
The old tag line was more befitting of chamber CEO Tom Donohue, the feisty Irishman who as
recently as 2008 led the chamber in a full frontal effort to deny Barack Obama a filibuster-proof
Senate majority. Today’s chamber reflects the growing influence of Suzanne Clark, who
replaced Mr. Donohue as president in 2019, and chief policy officer Neil Bradley. In their
choice between defending free enterprise and making nice on the cocktail circuit, the drinks are
winning.
The endorsements are best viewed as the chamber leadership’s bow to both political correctness
and dubious strategy. Internally, the outfit is increasingly under pressure from tech and Wall
Street executives who want a focus on climate change, equal pay and raising energy taxes. The
chamber’s website touts its diversity initiatives: “The U.S. Chamber Celebrates Women’s
Equality Day.” “At Historic U.S. Chamber Headquarters, Temporary Art Installation Celebrates
Black Lives Matter Voices.” Good luck finding a policy paper on, say, the economic cost of a
higher gasoline tax (a levy the chamber supports these days).
Externally, the chamber is falling for the old tried-and-failed belief that it can buy goodwill by
making nice to swing-seat Democrats in the majority. The 23 endorsements are supposed to
prove that the chamber is truly bipartisan and that it maintains distance from Republicans—and
thus persuade Democrats to work with the chamber to modulate the latest progressive promises
to double corporate taxation, jail CEO “polluters” and eliminate fossil fuels.
History shows otherwise. The chamber’s golden era was the 1980s, when its commitment to
free-market principle made it a powerhouse. Its chief economist, Richard Rahn, with the
support of President Richard Lesher, produced an economic platform that was solidly for lower
taxes, less regulation and free trade. The chamber was able to brush aside the special pleadings
of this or that industry, even as it demonstrated bipartisanship, for instance by opposing the
1982 Reagan tax increase. While other trade organizations cut deals, the chamber did not—and
that made it a force to reckon with.
The chamber’s clout waned with the elevation of William Archey, who subscribed to the make-
nice strategy, to the position of senior vice president for policy and congressional affairs. In
1993 the chamber threw itself behind Hillary Clinton’s health-care plan, as well as other
Democratic policies. It never got anything in return, though the chamber’s members did revolt,
resigning in droves. The board dumped Archey in 1994, and Mr. Lesher followed in 1997.
That’s how Mr. Donahue came by his job.
The chamber is now repeating history. Local chambers and members across the country are
furious that this week’s endorsements stack the decks against true free-market candidates.
Letters are pouring in; members are threatening to quit. It’s not the party affiliation; they
approve of the chamber supporting free-market Democrats. They complain that the chamber
juked free-marketeers by changing its scorecard formula to ease the path for Democratic
endorsements. Instead of measuring members purely on votes, the chamber now awards points
for “leadership” and “bipartisanship.” That’s how a business lobby ends up endorsing members
who voted for the February PRO Act, which would eliminate right to work, independent
contractors and secret ballots in union elections.
Mostly, they want to know how the chamber could be so gullible as to think these Democrats
will stand with business when it counts. Sure, Speaker Nancy Pelosi will cut a few loose here or
there to burnish their “moderate” credentials. But she will never allow them to cost her a floor
vote.
Supporters will argue the chamber isn’t spending any money on House races. What really
counts, they say, is the chamber’s support for continued GOP control of the Senate. Tell that to
companies in those swing districts left at the mercy of their antibusiness Democratic
representatives.
It’s hard to see what the chamber accomplished with this week’s move. Democrats will
continue to shut its doors to the chamber, though now Republicans will too. That’s what comes
with putting politics ahead of principle.
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And so it keeps going but Trump did not do this, Obama did. Trump caused the riots, the
pandemic. Trump is the root of all evil. Only took him 4 years. Biden Hide'n only 47. That is
why Trump is more effective. He does terrible things in less time.
And so it keeps going but Trump did not do this, Obama did. Trump caused the riots, the
pandemic. Trump is the root of all evil. Only took him 4 years. Biden Hide'n only 47. That is
why Trump is more effective. He does terrible things in less time.
Trump: Kosovo to normalize ties with Israel,
Serbia to move embassy to Jerusalem
US-brokered talks yield historic accord on economic cooperation between two long-
time rivals
time rivals
Kosovo will officially recognize Israel, and Serbia will move its diplomatic mission in the
Jewish state to Jerusalem, US President Donald Trump said Friday.
Jewish state to Jerusalem, US President Donald Trump said Friday.
The historic announcement came as the two long-time rivals gathered in the White House to
sign an accord on economic cooperation.
sign an accord on economic cooperation.
The US-brokered negotiations will see the two Balkan states establish an economic
relationship, falling short of a full-fledged normalization -- a result that still exceeds those
achieved in other peace efforts over the years.
relationship, falling short of a full-fledged normalization -- a result that still exceeds those
achieved in other peace efforts over the years.
As part of the accord, predominantly Muslim Kosovo will recognize Israel and normalize its
ties with country, with Jerusalem recognizing Kosovo in return. Serbia, an EU membership
candidate, will in its turn become the first European nation to relocate its embassy in Israel
into its capital of Jerusalem, with the move reportedly slated for July 2021.
ties with country, with Jerusalem recognizing Kosovo in return. Serbia, an EU membership
candidate, will in its turn become the first European nation to relocate its embassy in Israel
into its capital of Jerusalem, with the move reportedly slated for July 2021.
“Truly, it is historic,” Trump said, adding he was looking forward to "going to both countries in
the not too distant future."
the not too distant future."
Their rivalry dating several decades back, Serbia and Kosovo already reached a number of
on transportation and transit between the two states, but the new accord treads further than
that.
that.
The US efforts to bring the two rivals together have been mostly focused on the economy,
while a parallel EU-led process, dating back a decade and significantly less impactful, is
based on a broaderagenda.
while a parallel EU-led process, dating back a decade and significantly less impactful, is
based on a broaderagenda.
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A labor Day Rant:
Almost every day I had heard my friends and talking heads on TV say the market is
over-priced and over concentrated, and the end is near. And so the pullback happened.
There was no question the prices of some stocks had gotten ahead of themselves,
driven by the Robinhood day traders and the momentum players. So now the drop is
possibly over after one day. As you know from my prior Rants, I now do not think
long term those favored stocks have peaked. Yes the multiples are very high, but for
the tech companies and retailers like Walmart and Home Depot, they are still not over
valued based on what I believe is the future earning potential. I take a longer, multi-
year view, not the next 6 months, or even next year. I have held some stocks like HD
for ten years. I have made over 900% on my investment in HD. Since March of 2019
when I moved all of my accounts to Schwab and self-managed, I have earned a 26.4%
annualized return following this strategy, as measured by Schwab for my account using
a daily time weighted rate of return. They also rate my portfolio as high risk because it
is 100% equity. To me the risk reward is easily worth it. In my view, long term gain is
what investing is all about. Not a short term hit. Taking this long view has paid off for
me extremely well. You just have to select the companies that have strong management,
strong brands and products, and a solid balance sheet, and then sit back, and not panic
every time there is a hiccup like in March, or this week. My strategy is not for many
who fear the risk, which I consider not to be a risk if you have a long term view and
know when to get out, as I did in May 2007 for two years. I will get out again if Biden
wins and the Dems take the Senate, as I believe they will destroy the economy. Better
to pay taxes and be liquid than lose 30% or 40% of principal, and still owe some taxes
because your cost basis was low. And if the Dems get control, your cap gains taxes will be at ordinary rates. Many people I know sold in March to book losses and then reinvested. Too late now. If you have a wealth manager, insist on what you think is
right if you have a view different than they do. Investing is like medicine. If you are
not your own advocate, you can get into trouble. Some wealth managers do very well,
but like in every profession, there are some who are not good. Reality is the Fed is still
the economy, there are still trillions on the side lines waiting to invest, and the economy
is improving. The correction we just saw was simply due to values getting out of
control and most traders believing the market would decline, so they and the algos sold
once it started down. Keep in mind the algos are 70% of the market trading, and as
soon as there is bad news, like from Fauci about vaccines, they instantly react, and then
it cascades. Plus it is right before the long weekend.
New home purchase mortgages increased 28% over last year. Home prices are rising.
Factory activity is up, and better in the US than elsewhere right now according the
Markit ISM index rose to 56 from 54.This is due to pent up demand and the $600 and
$1200 subsidies plus growth in exports. Services did not grow in similar fashion since
things like a haircut not taken is not made up later by getting two haircuts. Monthly
spending on goods in July was 6.1% above February before the shutdown. Given the
failure of Dems to agree to any new phase 4 deal, it is likely spending on goods will
not grow as fast going forward. However services will grow as things are open again.
GDP in in May expanded at an annualized rate of 71% and 95.4% in June. July was
expected to be 26.1% annualized. August is expected to be 32.6% based on data from
the first week. So even if August and September are flat, third quarter GDP will rise at
a 32.6% annualized rate. Worst case if GDP contracted a little in August/September
the quarter annualized rate of growth will still be around 28%-29%. If there is any sort
of growth in August/September, then GDP in Q3 could get as high as 35%. If those
numbers hold, then unemployment will potentially decline to 8% or so by end of
October. Th Q3 GDP report comes out on October 29. All of that is very good news for
the economy, and gives some level of good feeling to consumers. If governors and
mayors would accelerate reopenings of restaurants and other venues for entertainment,
then we would see a big rise in employment. If Pelosi stopped refusing to do a new
deal, the economy would be even better, which is why she will do no deal. Maybe we
will see many more openings and schools in session by October. If those numbers do
prove to be accurate, and if Biden stumbles in the debates, and Durham starts to indict
in another week or two, Trump wins. It also means the stock market will be up again.
Here in the Hamptons I have a report from my winter house watcher who says he has
several NYC clients who had a second home here, who have now moved here
permanently, and given up trying to run a business in Manhattan. Others who owned a
vacation home, and were here for the summer, are staying here for several more months,
and working remotely waiting to see what happens. Most of the summer renters have
decided to stay for a while and work remote. These were the big spenders and taxpayers
for NYC. My neighbor in FL said he sold his house, and he had multiple offers at his
higher price. He said the market in FL has gone crazy. He just advertised on Zillow and
had a couple of thousand looks in a month for a very nice, but nothing special house.
He sold it in four weeks, and could have had a bidding war and gotten a higher price,
but he was desperate to get cash, and did not listen to my advice to hold out a bit longer.
He says he left at least $50,000 on the table because he grabbed the first offer. Bottom
line, NYC is emptying out. Cuomo and DeBozzo do not get it. And now the teachers
union has delayed school opening, and that will just push more people to leave. NYC
will take years to recover. I believe the same is happening in San Fran, LA and Chicago
and possibly other major cities. The longer this trend goes on, the less chance the big
Dem run cites will recover. Zoom and remote work has changed things in ways we
never imagined. Very bad news for big urban office and retail.
Willie Horton is back. But now it is mobs of Willies. When the couple in St Louis was
charged with a crime when they defended their home, you knew it was all over. The
Dems and Biden, and the media did not seem to realize that standing up for the rioters
and looters, who they called protestors, was not selling. CNN showing burning
buildings in the background, and a reporter saying it was a peaceful protest was the
turning point. Everyone then knew the media was lying. They try to blame Trump, but
he is being rejected by mayors and governors when he offers help to end the violence.
Portland tried to claim it was the Federal officers who caused the riots. They left and
now they tried to burn down the police station and the mayor’s condo. Yet nobody has
been prosecuted by the local prosecutor. People are not stupid. They see what is
happening even though CNN and NBC and others try to cover it up and blame Trump.
NPR even says it is racist to say riots are riots and not to say protests. How stupid can
they get. People see the burned out shops, and they see cops getting pelted, attacked
and shot in large numbers. Just this weekend cops were shot in St Louis, Chicago,
Daytona, and NY. And now the FBI says there is a plan by gangs to shoot cops in
Chicago. And what do we hear from Dems-defund cops or as Biden says- “reallocate
funds”. The election now is all about law and order and the economy. The virus will
fade as the vaccines are announced as almost ready in early November, and as it fades
from no more real surges. The whole to-do about the plasma treatment with opposing
views, just shows there is no listening to experts. The drug companies and FDA
advisory board say the vaccine may be ready Nov 1, and Fauci then says no it won’t.
Many hospitals are not properly reporting data. Who are we supposed to believe on any
of this. Mayo and FDA said Plasma worked and is safe, even though there was not a
formal random trial. It saved lives, so why not use it until a formal trial is completed if
it can save lives. It has been used for 100 years safely. Medicine has its politics and
establishment docs with an agenda, just like every other profession. Some demand every last test be performed to perfection. Others want to save lives.
For decades we have listened to the press, the politicians, wealthy Wall St CEO’s, and
the rich celebs pontificate about inequality. Congress has passed trillions in various
welfare, food stamp, rent subsidy, training, and whatever, programs to supposedly lift
the poor out of low incomes and struggles. So where has this gotten us. Violent crime, looting, demands to pay reparations, guaranteed incomes, defund cops, failed schools controlled by unions, and demands to give more to the people who already got trillions
and essentially blew it. Some like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson have cashed in for
millions, and failed to pay their taxes, and continue to demand even more. The lawyer
Crump is making a fortune off these shootings, so it is in his economic interest to stir
the pot and make all sorts of claims on TV. It is not a new concept that giving people
money does nothing but make them more dependent, and less driven to get a good
education, and to stay legal to get a job. When they fail to study hard and make
sacrifices to get ahead, they can blame discrimination and make excuses, and demand
even more welfare, which Pelosi and the CA legislature now want to give them. The
answer is there is a need to change the culture to one of education, hard work, and not
doing drugs and not joining gangs. Plus getting the teachers unions out of the system.
They are the biggest problem.
It has been proven over and over that when you raise taxes, you drive the job producers
away, making it harder and harder to catch up as the few real taxpayers leave. In NY
and CA, it is only a very tiny number of people who cover most of the taxes. In today’s
world, it is easy to move to FL and TX and pay no taxes locally, and have a government
that encourages business by minimizing regulation. None of this is theory any more.
The evidence is completely clear. Yet in both NY and CA, and others, the politicians are
either so stupid, or so corrupted by unions, that they seem not to have grasped this
elementary concept. Take IL. Their pensions are so far under water there is zero chance
they can avoid insolvency. Instead of making changes to the pension programs, they are
cutting services and talking about raising taxes, just as crime is spiraling out of control.
NJ is doing the same. And they think people will not flee to FL. CA is considering a
wealth tax which you pay yearly. Who in their right mind that is wealthy and paying
taxes is going to stay in CA. If the Dems get control of DC and raise taxes as they
propose, and if CA raises taxes , the effective tax rate for a successful entrepreneur is
around 60% or more. Cap gain s will become ordinary income, plus a wealth tax. And
for this you get crime and blackouts so the nutty crunchy types can have wind farms.
Pelosi is holding up a new phase 4 so these cities can get bailed out of their destructive
policies. Result is likely there will be no phase 4.
In NYC they moved child sex predators and mentally ill homeless into one of the best
neighborhoods, and then the city claims it is required to be nice to the bums who harass
and attack little old ladies and mothers with baby carriages. The cops do nothing
because they have been ordered to tolerate the bums behavior. Crime in NY is
skyrocketing. And the Dems think people are going to stay and pay high taxes??? I am
one of those who left town. That is why it is very crowded now in the Hamptons and
FL. The housing market in FL is being described by brokers as “on fire”. In NYC there
are neighborhoods now where you can’t give away your condo or coop. And it is about
to get worse as more restaurants and shops close down because Cuomo and DeBozzo
refuse to allow indoor dining as cool weather approaches. And DeBozzo thinks all of
the rest of you should pay more taxes to support NYC by having the feds give NYC
another $7 billion. Why would you ever do that. IL, OR, CA, WA, NJ. Are no better.
And where are the worst rioting and crime spikes: NY, IL, OR, CA and WA, NJ. Gee
Zeke, do you think there is a connection here.
Systemic racism is all the talk lately. Reality check. Yes some people are racist, but
some people have discriminated against other people since man first walked the earth.
Humans tend to gather in tribes which can be literal tribes, religions, ethnicity, fans of
sports teams, or for whatever reason, and they tend to feel other tribes are not to be
trusted, and are not as good. There is still substantial anti-Semitism on campus and even
in Congress with Talib and Omar being blatant. One course outline in the proposed
CA high school curriculum actually says “the students will write a paper detailing how
events in American history have led to Jewish and Irish Americans gaining racial
privilege.” And they are supposed to be teaching non-discrimination? Have you heard
a single Dem or Biden say one word about anti-Semitism. There is discrimination on
college campuses now when a white or Asian is rejected to make a place for a less
qualified black with much lower SAT scores. The Shiites hate the Sunnis and Orthodox
Jews do not respect reform Jews. NY and DC elites look down on Midwest farmers.
That is just how the human race functions. Even animals do the same. This does not
mean we should discriminate, but we need to recognize that whites in America did not
invent discrimination, and it has been part of life since before there was human
habitation. The US has probably done more to end it than any other nation in history.
When black students demand their own dorms and student centers, that just sets back
efforts to be inclusive. They are acting tribal because they view themselves as wanting
to be with their own. When Silicon Valley wants H1B visas for Indian computer
employees it is simply to replace US kids with cheap labor, it is not about immigration.
When Merkel insisted on letting in 1 million Muslims, it was purely to get cheap labor
to make her factories more competitive. It was not some magnanimous ethnic gesture.
Humans tend to live in areas where people are like themselves. That is just how it is,
and has always been. The Jews have experienced all of this since they were slaves in
Egypt, except they have suffered more than any other group. The Armenians are not far
behind after the massacre in 1918 by the Turks.
When companies hire a kid just because they are black, it does no good if the kid was
pushed through college and given inflated grades, but did not really meet standards,
which is sometimes what happens when a kid is a diversity admit with lower than
standard SAT scores. (That is why the move to end SAT scores. It just makes the legal
point of discrimination against Asians blatant). Then a company says, well he
graduated from Harvard or Penn so he must be good, but may not be. So now we have
an employee who is not up to the job, but who now can’t get fired because he is black.
So his skills and productivity are not what is needed by the company. He is given
decent performance reports because his supervisor is told not to tell the truth. (I know
cases where this is happening). Eventually the black guy does not get promoted because
he lacks the needed skills, so he then claims discrimination and sues. So now we have
reduced productivity, an angry frustrated employee, and nothing good came of it. This
is now not uncommon, and is about to get much worse as big companies rush to hire
any black they can find, and to promote minorities and women even if they do not
deserve to be promoted. A race to the bottom.
CA is instituting a requirement that all elementary and high school students take a class
in racism and diversity. It will be indoctrination based on the syllabus they plan to use
which is the fully discredited 1619 program written by a radical left wing black woman,
as the basis for the course. 1619 is racism reversed, and makes all American history and
progress tied to slavery. It is mostly garbage according to most real historians. So now
CA is going to indoctrinate impressionable young kids with this false narrative. You see
where this is going. Expect academia to be far worse than ever with all sorts of speech
rules, and classes on race and diversity, and a shut down of any opposing views about
BLM. The viewpoint dictatorship on campus is now worse than ever, and is carrying
over to the workplace.
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