According to Caroline Glick, a man named Greenblatt needs to wake up and get real. (See 1 below.)
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Democrats love to employ politics of hate, identity politics, demonize their opponents and the mass media loves to support their efforts. In many cases, once the demonizing and mockery ends, in this case,as we look back, the person being assaulted and humiliated actually offered prescient advice.
And so it was for the lady from Wassila. (See 2 below.)
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The market is unsettled for several reasons in my opinion:
a) It got ahead of itself even in the face of good earnings.
b) It is discounting the increasing concern Democrats could win The House in 2018 and all that would mean in terms of impeaching Trump and reversing the benefits his election has created psychologically and actually. At the very least, Democrats want to cripple his progress.
c) What goes up, and fast, does not have time to technically fill in gaps and thus can decline quickly.
d) The Trump Administration's attack on drug prices has created instability in an important market sector.
e) A new Fed Chairman , rising interest rates and inflation concerns creates uncertainty.
f) I still believe we are in a correction phase of an extended market that has more upside.
Time will tell
More Ross Rant:
There may be some down strokes in stocks for awhile due to interest rate increases. The 10 year is now at 2.8%. Why, three reasons. There has been a huge flow of capital out of treasuries and into stocks. There is an increase in issuance by the Treasury to fund the government, and the Atlanta Fed forecasts GDP in Q1 will be 5.4% That would be an astonishing number since the past 8 years has been very low. Keep in mind that 2.8% is around 2.5% below historical averages. Rates ae still very low which means it is still a good time for companies to borrow and invest in cap ex and expansion. For real estate it will mean slower times as rates move up and cap rates will start to rise. However, many of us recall when we thought a home mortgage at 8-9% was great and instead we have 4-4.5% today. The stock market is freaking over rising ten year rates, but it just means the economy is growing faster than most expected and with tax reform just getting going, it means the economy will grow even faster than expected. Growth is good. The question is how many times the Fed increases as the year unfolds. Earnings reports have beaten consensus in around 85% of cases- a near record. It has been the best earnings growth in 6 years when we were just recovering from the crash. The wind is getting to gale force behind the economy and there is nothing going to stop it. The GDP 2.6% number for Q4 needs to be parsed to understand it. It was down because there was a unexplained huge increase in imports way out of line, and a huge drop in inventories way out of line with norm. The inventory drop may be due to better than expected sales for Christmas which means business was far better than expected which would cause a drop in inventory since it got sold. All good. Expect the number to be revised up over the next 60-90 days. Just do not let these dips bother you. Things are getting far better as the tax reform increases paychecks for over 90% of people. All of the absurd statements by Pelosi that 86 million will see tax increase, that bonuses are crumbs, etc are just lies and over the top politics which will haunt the Dems in November after workers see more money from the paycheck, bonuses, 401 K contributions. We just hear about the big public companies giving these benefits, but you can be sure there are many small companies doing the same you will never hear about. 2018 is going to be a great year for the economy and the Republicans are going to do far better in November as a result. The press and pollsters are getting it as wrong now as they did in 2016. They just do not get it. America is not NY, DC, CA and Seattle.
Here comes the memo. The hypocrisy is extraordinary. The left thought Edward Snowden, the Pentagon Papers and similar releases of top secret information was great, but when Republicans release a memo that has been scrubbed of any highly classified information is political and horrible. This is supposedly just the first of a series of releases that will show how some people in the Obama administration, Clinton and the intelligence services top echelons colluded to get Trump and to cover up for Hilary. This is going to get really ugly when all the facts get out. To repeat my mantra- the Dems are going to be sorry they ever started this.
It is clear from the AMZN earnings report that the world is changing fast. It is not just online shopping, by Alexa, cloud storage and now some sort of healthcare program which is likely to completely upend healthcare over time in ways we do not yet know. When WMT reports in a few weeks, I expect you will see similar earnings increases reinforcing how these two companies are changing the retail sector. There is a massive revolution in progress in how we live and work. With tax reform there is starting to be a major capital investment in tech by most companies and it will be accelerating over the next two years. For us old guys, it will be harder to understand how to operate our car, household appliances and communications. I am looking at new cars and it is clear the car is now a mobile computer and there are all sorts of things on a screen that I have no idea how to operate. We will need self-driving cars so we have time to operate all the gadgets and screens and to be on the phone to tech support to fix what we screw up. One day the car will say to us- keep your hands off my screen and sit back and shut up. The same is going to happen in your home.
Crypto currencies are collapsing now as regulators across the whole world are cracking down hard, other than Switzerland which is cashing in on fees. Classic Swiss- accommodate all the bad guys and just sweep fees for the service but never take the risk. Better to let others pan for the gold and sell them the pans. If you invested in crypto get out now before you get wiped out.
Take off the gloves Republicans and show someMoxie! If you cannot rise to the challenge you deserve what you will get - defeat.
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Now that the infamous Nunes 4 page memo is out, Democrats are going to do everything to make sure the public thinks it is a Republican effort to besmirch Mueller and the drum roll, concerning the document's unreliability, has begun.
It is evident, full information was not provided to the FISA Court because those who prepared the "Dossier," which formed the basis of seeking the FISA Warrant, was not properly vetted, was written by partisans whose motives were anti-Trump and some engaged engaged in unscrupulous methods. That Trump twitted his distrust of America's Intelligence Agencies appears understandable and justified.
No wonder top officials at The FBI wanted this memo withheld because it demonstrates bias and politicization colored the report on which FISA Warrants were sought.
Those, who were engaged in behaviour which, at the very least, was bumbling, incompetent and biased and at worst was probably was illegal, wanted their involvement kept from the public.
Muller continues pursuing obstruction of justice charges because it seems there is no there there - As Trump Alleged All Along.. (Re-posting Kim's flashlight op ed. (See 3 below.)
A this point this is what I have concluded:
The DNC and Hillary apparently paid for a "Confusion Dossier," prepared by a scurrilous/unreliable former British Agent named Christopher Steele who leaked it toThe FBI. The FBI initially had doubts but then reversed after relying upon a circular article which appeared in the media encouraged by Steele. The FBI then, decided to use it to seek a FISA Warrant without giving the court a full background account. This was done by associated high up FBI personnel who had expressed serious biases and concerns about a Trump Presidency, had bet on a Clinton win and had cleared her prior to a proper FBI investigation of her own alleged misdeeds.
The Clinton initiated boomerang has landed and naturally, The FBI does not wish to be exposed because they have power to investigate Americans and want their awesome ability to obtain FISA Warrants kept in tact.
(Those involved in helping weaponize The FBI were: Bruce Ohr, his wife Nelly, Sally Yates, Carter Page, Christopher Steele, James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, and Rod Rosenstein among others.)
In the final analysis, this Nunes memo is part of a larger puzzle. I suspect politics will eventually corrupt alleged FBI and Intelligence corruption and we will never really know all the facts and will simply have to decide who we wish to believe. It is this type of political warfare and obfuscation that is destroying our faith in government, which is already at a dangerously low level.
There is nothing in the Nunes memo which threatens surveillance methods of the FBI as claimed by FBI Director Wray.
I believe Nunes sought to carry out Congress' appropriate and constitutional authority of oversight. When it began to appear his work was going to reveal the Clinton's were up to their eyeballs, along with the DNC, in seeking and paying for a Dossier which was used by The FBI to acquire a warrant that might otherwise not have been issued had all the facts been revealed, Rep Schiff began his counter attack so as to undercut Nunes' credibility.
Democrats are not interested in allowing the pubic to learn the truth. They are interested in continuing to smear Trump and cast doubt on anything that suggests there is no there there so Mueller will continue to his investigation which is taking on the appearance of a "witch hunt."
The elitist swamp people involved, do appear to have had a serious bias upon which they acted and now want to cover up the entire putrid episode so the public will never know. After all, if Trump had a legitimate reason to distrust the intelligence community, was not engaged in Russian collusion and their own candidate started all of this, they would have serious egg on their face and that would not bode well come the 2018 election.
I have my own bias because I do not trust the likes of the Clinton's, Schumer, Schiff, Durbin, Pelosi, and now McCain and Graham. I am willing to believe Nunes and Gowdy. Why? Because they are being attacked by the 'slimes' I just mentioned.
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Trump rises in the plls and this is dangrous or Democrats. (See
Dick
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1)
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On Tuesday in Bethlehem, the Palestinians demonstrated the choice the Americans now face in their dealings with Fatah – the supposedly moderate PLO faction that controls the Palestinian Authority and the PLO. President Donald Trump and his advisers can play by Fatah’s rules or they can walk away.
On Tuesday a delegation of diplomats from the US Consulate in Jerusalem came to Bethlehem to participate in a meeting of the local chamber of commerce. When they arrived in the city, Fatah members attacked them. Their vehicles with diplomatic license plates were pelted with tomatoes and eggs by a mob of protesters calling out anti-American slogans. After the Americans entered the hall where the meeting was scheduled to take place, some of the rioters barged in. They held placards condemning America and they shouted, “Americans Out!” Some of the demonstrators cursed the Palestinians present, accusing them of treason for participating in a meeting with Americans. According to the news reports, the scene became tense and violent. The American officials beat a speedy retreat. As they departed the city, the Fatah rioters continued attacking their cars, kicking them and throwing eggs at them, until they were gone. The attack on Tuesday was a natural progression. On Saturday, Fatah members in Bethlehem-area UN camps convened to carry out a very public “people’s tribunal.” Trump and Vice President Mike Pence were tried for “racism” and “bias” against the Palestinians. The “tribunal” found them guilty and sentenced the president and vice president to death by hanging. Their bodies, the “judges” decided, were to be burned. In the event, the crowd burned effigies of Trump and Pence. The implication of the “trial” was clear. Americans like Israelis should be killed. The burning effigies themselves were a natural consequence of PLO and Fatah chief and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas’s call last month for Trump’s “house to be destroyed.” That is, both the assault on the consular officers Tuesday and the riot on Saturday were simply Abbas’s followers carrying out his orders. He put the Americans in his crosshairs. And they are pulling the trigger – for now, with effigies and eggs. It isn’t hard for Abbas to set his people against the Americans. Palestinians hate Americans. As a 2014 Pew Survey showed, Palestinians are more anti-American than any people on earth. Seventy-six percent of Palestinians consider the US their enemy. Pakistan came in second place with 64% of respondents saying that the US is their enemy. Palestinian anti-Americanism is notable given that the US has given more assistance to the Palestinians than any country other than Israel. Americans have spent the last 25 years pressuring Israel to make more and more concessions to the Palestinians. In large part, anti-Americanism among Palestinians redounds to two things. First, incitement. For 25 years, the US-financed PA has used all the tools at its disposal to indoctrinate the Palestinians to hate America almost as much as they hate Israel. Second, like the Iranian regime, the Palestinians view the US and Israel as two sides of the same coin. And indeed, their hatred for the US is the mirror image of Israelis’ love for it. While the Palestinians topped the list of people who view the US as their enemy, Israel topped the list of nations that view the US as their partner. Ninety percent of Israelis view the US as their partner. All Abbas needed to do was call for Trump’s house to be destroyed and mobs of Fatah members were only too happy to go into the streets and burn the president in effigy. Trump, for his part, seems more than willing to walk away from the whole business. Over the past week Trump threatened to cut off all US aid to the Palestinians three times. In his appearance with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Davos last week, Trump made clear that he wouldn’t be overly upset if the peace process disappears. “I can tell you that Israel does want to make peace,” Trump said. The Palestinians, he continued, are “going to have to want to make peace too, or we’re going to have nothing to do with it any longer.” When asked about the implications of his recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital for prospects for peace, Trump turned to Netanyahu and said, “You [Israel] won one point, and you’ll give up some points later on in the negotiation, if it ever takes place. I don’t know that it ever will take place.” Jason Greenblatt, Trump’s chief peace negotiator, seems less sanguine at the concept that the peace process is over. At a meeting in Ramat Gan this week with ambassadors from EU member states, one of the ambassadors asked Greenblatt whether Jerusalem is still a subject for negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, or whether, as Trump said in Davos, the issue is settled and is in Trump’s words, “off the table.” Greenblatt reportedly answered that Trump mischaracterized the situation at Davos. Jerusalem is still a topic for negotiation between the sides, as Trump made clear in his December 6, 2017, declaration recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, Greenblatt said. Greenblatt’s statements over the past several days paint a picture of an administration unclear on what to make of the Palestinian response to Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem. On the one hand, they continue to maintain that peace can only be based on reality and therefore, recognizing Jerusalem was necessary for peace to ever be achieved. Along these lines, at his meeting with the European ambassadors, Greenblatt also told them that their insistent condemnation of construction in Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria as an obstacle to peace is wrong. Construction of housing in the settlements has no impact on prospects for peace, he insisted, rightly. The last time any US envoy said anything approaching Greenblatt’s reported remarks was 2003. But then, Greenblatt wouldn’t let go of the hope that the Palestinians are interested in cutting a peace deal. Speaking in Brussels at a donor conference for the Palestinian Authority, Greenblatt repeated over and over that the US is committed to the peace process. Then there was his fawning message to PA “Prime Minister” Rami Hamdallah, who participated in the conference. The sole reason the conference in Brussels was convened was to raise tens of millions of dollars for Hamdallah to shove into bank accounts controlled by Abbas and his kleptocrat underlings. It would have been rather odd if Hamdallah wasn’t there to beg in person. And yet, Greenblatt didn’t treat Hamdallah’s presence in the meeting room as no big deal. He didn’t call him out publicly for the dangerous assault by Fatah activists against US diplomats in Bethlehem the day before. Instead Greenblatt gushed, “I am particularly pleased to see you Prime Minister Hamdallah – I hope, as a sign of the Palestinian Authority’s continued commitment to the process which we have undertaken together. Despite our differences, we remain committed to continue working together to use our best efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.” Given the fact that the day before Fatah members attacked US diplomats in Bethlehem, and four days earlier they burned Trump and Pence in effigy, it would have been reasonable for Greenblatt to publicly excoriate Hamdallah and the PA for their actions. The fact that Greenblatt failed to call him to account, but rather gushed at Hamdallah’s presence like a teenage girl over a rock star, shows that the Americans are still unclear why the Palestinians have taken a sword to their relations with Washington. Greenblatt, like his colleagues at the consulate and the State Department, don’t understand what is happening because they think that the peace process is about negotiating. But that’s never been what the peace process has been about. If it were about negotiating then the Palestinians would have been held accountable for their breaches of every commitment they ever made to Israel. But they have never been held to account. Only Israel has been held to account. Indeed, Israel has been attacked despite the fact that it has upheld all of its commitments. Meantime, the Palestinians have never honored any of their commitments to Israel – or to the US. They never canceled or amended the PLO Charter that calls for Israel’s annihilation. They never ended their incitement to murder Israelis. They never ended their sponsorship or finance of terrorism. They never extradited terrorists who murdered Americans to the US to stand trial. They certainly never extradited terrorists to stand trial in Israel. Indeed, they have never recognized Israel’s right to exist. As far as the Palestinians are concerned, the peace process is a process of unconditional Israeli surrender to all of their terms. The role of the US as the sponsor of the peace process is to coerce Israel to make concessions that together will lead to its unconditional surrender. And for the better part of the past quarter century successive US administrations have played by the Palestinians’ rules. But then Trump showed up. When Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, he took something away from the Palestinians. That has never happened before. And now, reports that the administration is considering holding the UN’s Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA to the same definition of “refugee” as the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees means another Palestinian high card is in danger. If Trump carries out his threat, then the only Palestinians who will be eligible for refugee status will be the 20,000 Palestinians who left Israel between 1947 and 1949. In one fell swoop, Trump would wipe out the Palestinian demand to destroy Israel through mass immigration of five million foreign-born Arabs to its territory – in the framework of peace. In an interview with Fox News, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat was asked what the administration can do to placate the Palestinians’ anger and convince them to renew their contacts with Washington. Erekat said the only thing the US can do is cancel its recognition of Jerusalem. Meaning only unconditional American surrender to Palestinian demands will bring America back into the PLO’s good graces. At the entrance to Jericho a sign is hanging saying that Americans and dogs are not welcome. Signs on shop windows in Ramallah and Jericho inform all US and British visitors thinking of coming inside that they are required to apologize for their governments’ policies. It’s time for Greenblatt to understand that the peace process is over. And unless Trump intends to humiliate himself and America and sell Israel down the river like his predecessors did, the peace process will not be resuscitated. The longer he and his colleagues pretend away the truth, the more they imperil themselves and empower a people that will be more than happy to move beyond eggs and tomatoes and effigies and banners.
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2)
Drilled, Baby, DrilledA decade ago Barack Obama mocked Sarah Palin. Who was right?
By The Editorial Board
Readers of pre-millennial vintage may recall the 2008 presidential campaign when Republicans and especially Sarah Palin picked up the chant “drill, baby, drill” as a response to soaring oil prices. The theme was much derided, not least by Barack Obama, who as late as 2012 called it “a slogan, a gimmick, and a bumper sticker” but “not a strategy.” Ten years later, who was right?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday that U.S. crude oil production exceeded 10 million barrels a day for the first time since 1970. That’s double the five million barrels produced in 2008, thanks to the boom in, well, drilling, baby.
The EIA summary puts it this way: “U.S. crude oil production has increased significantly over the past 10 years, driven mainly by production from tighter rock formations including shale and other fine-grained rock using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to improve efficiency.” This is the “fracking” boom our readers know well that has been driven by innovation in the private oil and gas industry.
The magnitude of the boom is remarkable. The gusher has pushed the U.S. close to overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s leading oil producer. In 2006 the U.S. imported 12.9 million barrels a day of crude and petroleum products. By last October that was down to 2.5 million a day. Some gimmick.
This translates into greater energy security as the U.S. is less dependent on foreign oil sources. Donald Trump calls it “energy dominance,” which implies that the U.S. wants to husband its supplies like gold at Fort Knox. The reality is we want to produce and sell what the market will bear, including exports to willing buyers around the world.
Thanks to Congress’s deal with Mr. Obama in 2015 when Republicans extended wind and solar subsidies in return for lifting the oil export ban, the U.S. exported some 1.5 million barrels of oil a day in November. Some readers may recall that Heritage Action instructed Congress to vote no, and Breitbart called the bill “a total and complete sell-out of the American people.” Perhaps even they can now see that trading temporary subsidies for a permanent change in export law was shrewd and good for the country.
Also striking is how quickly the oil and gas industry has recovered from the oil price plunge of 2015-2016. Previous price declines led to multiple bankruptcies and bank failures. This time drillers adapted quickly, took the rig count down fast, and cut costs. America’s flexible private capital markets helped the companies ride out the price trough, and now producers, investors and lenders are reaping the benefits of the oil price rebound to $69 a barrel.
And don’t forget the fracking boom in natural gas. EIA says U.S. gas production increased by some 50% from January 2010 to November 2017, reducing carbon emissions and heating prices. Thanks to new export terminals, the U.S. is now selling liquefied natural gas around the world. This has the potential to compete with Russian gas so Western Europe doesn’t have to succumb to Vladimir Putin’s periodic energy blackmail. Unleashing U.S. energy is Donald Trump’s best Russia containment strategy.
It’s worth stressing some of the policy lessons in all this. The first is that the best response to energy shocks is to let the market adjust to the price signals. As oil prices soared in the latter half of the last decade, politicians panicked and rushed to ban certain light bulbs, and subsidize and mandate cellulosic ethanol and other energy fads. The media fed the panic and cheered the politicians on. We were back at “peak oil” and the end of fossil fuels.
Yet American ingenuity was already discovering the solution for high prices in the shale plays of North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Texas and elsewhere. These drillers could move fast because they had the support of private capital and could lease private land. The frackers were also largely regulated by the states, which meant even the Obama Administration couldn’t stop them.
This is a familiar American story of invention and wealth creation that benefits everyone, but it never would have happened if central planners in Washington had to approve it. That’s the most important lesson.
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3)Memo Reading for Nonpartisans Ignore the spin. When the document goes public, here’s what to look for.
By Kimberley A. Strassel
The White House looks set to release the House Intelligence Committee memo on 2016 government surveillance abuses, which means the attacks on the document by Democrats, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the media are going to get wilder. To help navigate through the spin, here’s a handy guide for what to look for, and what to ignore:
• Rationale. Did the FBI have cause to open a full-blown counterintelligence probe into an active presidential campaign? That’s a breathtakingly consequential and unprecedented action and surely could not be justified without much more than an overheard drunken conversation or an unsourced dossier. What hard evidence did the FBI have?
• Tools and evidence. Government possesses few counterintelligence tools more powerful or frightening than the ability to spy on American citizens. If the FBI obtained permission from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court to monitor Trump aide Carter Page based on information from the Christopher Steele dossier, that in itself is a monumental scandal. It means the FBI used a document commissioned by one presidential campaign as a justification to spy on another. Ignore any arguments that the dossier was not a “basis” for the warrant or only used “in part.” If the FBI had to use it in its application, it means it didn’t have enough other evidence to justify surveillance.
Look to see what else the FBI presented to the court as a justification for monitoring, and whether it was manufactured. Mr. Steele and his client, Fusion GPS, ginned up breathless news stories about the dossier’s unverified accusations in September 2016 in order to influence the election. The FBI sometimes presents news articles to the court, but primarily for corroboration of other facts. If the FBI used the conspiracy stories Mr. Steele was spinning as actual justification—evidence—to the court, that’s out of bounds.
• Omissions and misdirection. What else did the FBI tell the court? One would presume the bureau did its due diligence and knew Mr. Steele ultimately worked for the Hillary Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee. The FISA court puts considerable emphasis on the credibility of sources. Did the FBI inform the court of the Clinton connection? Or did it lean on the claim that the Fusion project was originally funded by Republicans? Such a claim might diminish the partisan stench. But it would also be a falsehood, since the dossier portion of the project was purely funded by Clinton allies. And if the FBI didn’t bother to ask who hired Mr. Steele or Fusion, that’s a scandal all its own.
Also, look to see whether the FBI informed the court that Mr. Steele was blabbing to the press. When he first approached the bureau in July, he hadn’t yet briefed the media. But by September he and Fusion were publicly spinning the dossier for their Democratic client, and the FBI would have known who was generating the stories. Did the FBI continue to attest something that clearly was no longer true?
• Duration of surveillance. The FBI may argue it had good cause to look into Mr. Page. But if months of wiretaps didn’t turn up anything (and surely we’d have heard if they did), the FBI also had a duty to cease such a liberty-busting intrusion. Ask how long this probe went on and whether it was justified, or if the FBI was simply giving itself an open-ended license to spy on a campaign.
Expect Trump critics to renew their effort to turn Mr. Page into a Manchurian aide, seizing on his every action or word while ignoring the small role he played in the campaign, not to mention his obvious oddness. This will be designed to make people forget that for all the focus on Mr. Page, he was and remains a private citizen, who apparently was subject to months of government monitoring based on what may prove nothing more than the gossip of a rival campaign.
• Team Obama. Somewhat lost in this narrative is what role if any the broader Obama administration might have played with regard to the dossier. What actions were taken by former CIA Director John Brennan, or former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper ? Also don’t forget Bruce Ohr, the Justice Department official whose wife worked for Fusion GPS, and who himself met with Fusion cofounder Glenn Simpson. Or the Justice Department officials who approved court filings. If there was surveillance abuse, accountability shouldn’t stop with the FBI.
Mostly, ignore what is certain to be a nonstop shriek that this memo is out of context, that it omits facts or cherry-picks data or makes unfair allegations. You know, sort of like what Democrats and the media did this past year in their “Russia investigation.” The difference here is that the memo only needs to provide a few facts for the country to understand if there was FISA abuse.
The rest is noise.
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3) SHOCK POLL: Trump Climbing President Donald Trump's approval rating jumped to a seven-month high on Friday following a State of the Union address that was widely received as a success. The Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll shows 49 per cent of likely U.S. voters believe Trump is doing a good job in the White House. The same number disagree. The last Time the poll put Trump's number so high was in mid-June of last year. The 49 per cent number puts him above his performance level in the 2016 election, when 46.1 per cent of voters chose him over Hillary Clinton and a handful of minor candidates.
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