Fat Boy's Sister Is A Trade Away Pawn In A Game Where We Continue Playing Defensive Chess. Israel At War Again ?

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 I am always bemused when the mass media create a story so they will have something "sensational" to write about. The new story is all about S Korea and N Korea.  The risk is that Americans live in a country that has a free press and a press free enough to concoct a serious scenario out of nonsense as their agenda.  To be free is one thing, responsible another.

"Fat Boy" knows people who live in democracies abhor confrontations until there is no alternative.  Then, when confrontation becomes inevitable, we must go to battle after having tied one of our hands..

History is replete with detente episodes which evaporate over time as N Korea's broken promises allow them to  resume marching towards nuclear status.The West allows anxiety over confrontation to dictate and thus it's own manipulation becomes easier.  Fat Boy maybe insane but he is not stupid.  He may also be a  megalomaniac who is encouraged in his pursuits because we have allowed him to win and out snooker us.

The Palestinians manipulated the West for over 40 years by constantly blaming Israel for their own self induced misery and milked European and American coffers to the tune of billions. We never learn. Appeasing bullies does not pay However, .it does increase their appetite.

Senator Rand says we should abandon Afghanistan because we are wasting billions and have no winning strategy. There is some truth in what he says because every four to eight years new presidents enter stage right or left with new policies and approaches and we lose coherence, as if we ever have any. Culturally speaking, Asians are far better at taking the long approach and dictatorships are far more capable of acting in a consistent manner as long as they last. Americans, by nature, are an impatient lot and our open society allows for more open discord which rends the fabric of cohesiveness.

Once again I remind my readers Kissinger negotiated a "war defeat " in Viet Nam which we were within months of winning and the legacy of that loss has shaped our psyche ever since.  Wars are fought to win, should not be left to the mass media and politicians to intrude. They are not trained nor have the stomach for war and, over time, manipulate the public not to hang tough but to soften. In the case of the mass media they seek to leave their indelible stamp of defeatism and negativism and in the case of politicians they seek to be re-elected and find wars an inconvenient challenge to these personal desires.

Johnson insisted upon being fed good news and thus, manipulated himself with body count statistics provided by Gen Westmoreland who could not bring himself to tell LBJ the truth nor could he tell LBJ to f--- off and let the military do what they knew and were trained to do - win!

Trump does understand and he has allowed the military to have its own way when it comes to ISIS. What concerns me is whether he will employ a winning strategy when it comes to N Korea, Iran and Syria if it means taking military action or will he try diplomacy and impose sanctions til the cows come home per Tillerson.  Fat Boy is seeking to drive a wedge between us and S Korea, knowing the latter realize  how much they would suffer in the event of war and that gives him extraordinary leverage as he pursues weapons capable of hitting America.

Defensive Chess is not always the winning strategy.
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Tax return humor. (See 1 below.)
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This from a friend and fellow memo reader. It has always been only a matter of time. (See 2 and 2a below.)

I have been an AIPAC member for over 40 years. (See 2b below.)

Netanyahu remains indespensible, particularly at thist ime as Israel is going to possibly be at war.  (See 2c below.)
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Dick
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1)           The Unacceptable Tax Return!

This example shows the importance of accuracy in your tax return.  The IRS has returned the Tax Return to a man in New York City implying that he answered one of the questions incorrectly.

In response to the question, "Do you have anyone dependent on you?” The man wrote: ... "7.1 million illegal immigrants, 1.1 million crack-heads, 4.4 million unemployable scroungers, 80,000 criminals in over 85 prisons, at least 450 idiots in Congress; i.e., a group that call themselves Politicians."

The IRS stated that the response he gave was unacceptable.

The man's response back to the IRS was.... "Who did I leave out?"

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2)  At about 8:45 this morning, as our sheliach tzibur was reciting the Shema (in Sephardi tradition, he reads it out loud), air raid sirens went off. In our eight plus years here in Rosh Pina, this is the first time I have heard these sirens except during commemorations calling for a moment of silence. 

After a moment's hesitation there was a calm migration out of the beit knesset towards the underground bunker, which is now used as the headquarters for the local Bnai Akiva youth movement chapter. However, before anyone actually went into the shelter, the sirens stopped, and, after a brief pause, we returned to the service.

It was only afterwards that the most dramatic detail came out - the downing of an Israeli F16 with the bailing out of the pilots. After Shabbat, the larger picture emerged:

1. An Iranian drone penetrated Israeli airspace.

2. After a minute and a half over Israel, it was shot down.

3. In retaliation, Israel hit several anti aircraft batteries and several yet to be revealed Iranian targets in Syria.

4. In the course of that retaliation, anti aircraft missiles locked onto the F16, prompting the pilots to evacuate. Unfortunately one of them is in serious condition at Rambam Hospital in Haifa. But they showed great skill in getting the plane back to Israel before it crashed.

By way of prelude, on Thursday night there was a continuous drone (as it were) of warplanes flying overhead. I checked and heard planes at 1, 3,5 and 7 in the morning. So matters have clearly been ramping up.

Israel has been very clear in stating its intent that it will not permit an Iranian incursion into Syrian territory near the Golan border, nor will it allow either Syria nor Lebanon to become "a missile factory."

The real issue is that Iranian involvement now appears to be out of the closet, and this is a new and more concerning development. How does this impact Russia? Does it mean anything to the US? Will it prompt Iran to have its proxies be more aggressive as a way of either deflecting attention from themselves, or as a demonstration of unity?

My sense of things is that for Israel there is quiet resolve, there is a the confidence that comes from having been unequivocal, and there is no let down in our showing determination. These should be of great significance to our adversaries in their trying to gauge their next moves. But their calculus might not be one that we can readily understand.

In other words, Iran's strategy might not be focused on military success so much as a symbolic "defeat" of Israel. This might burnish their reputation among the Arab world and their own people. The fact that they denied that there was even a drone today is indicative of the reality that they are working with.

So, we will all stay tuned. Meanwhile, in classic Israeli fashion, within a few minutes of the ending of the siren, you would have never suspected anything happened at all.

Shavua tov,

2a)

THE OPEN WAR WITH IRAN HAS BEGUN

BY YAAKOV KATZ

The "Shadow War" between Israel and Iran has been going on for years, bringing us closer and closer to today's events and what is to come

Monday, Hezbollah will mark the 10th anniversary of the death of Imad Mughniyeh, its legendary and ruthless military commander, whose absence, according to Israeli intelligence, is felt still today.

Mughniyeh – the mastermind of the bombing of the US Marine barracks in Beirut (1983) as well as the attacks against the Israeli Embassy (1992) and the Jewish community center (1994) in Buenos Aires – was killed in Damascus on February 12, 2008, just after he finished a meeting with some of his Iranian patrons. The Mossad reportedly planted a bomb in the spare tire on the back of his Mitsubishi jeep.

The assassination of Mughniyeh as well as countless other operations and targeted killings attributed to Israel have been going on for years as part of the “Shadow War” between Israel and Iran and the proxies it funds and operates throughout the Middle East.

For the most part, until now, this war has been fought behind the scenes. Who needs to know, knows, and while some details occasionally make their way to the public domain, most do not.

What happened in northern Israel on Saturday is the beginning of the overt and direct war between Israel and Iran. The infiltration and interception of an Iranian drone over Israel, the downing of an Israeli F-16 and Israel’s retaliatory strikes against Syrian and Iranian targets that followed, are apparently just the opening scenes of a potentially wider conflict that could erupt if Iran continues trying to fortify its presence in the new Syria.

This was long in the making. Years ago, the Iranians came to the rescue of Bashar Assad in Syria and, together with Russia, ensured his survival. The problem is that they haven’t left. On the contrary – even though Assad is today in control of the majority of Syria, Iran is staying put and trying to establish an even greater presence within the country. On Saturday, we saw how determined it is to do just that.

It is too early to tell what lesson Iran has learned from the clash on Saturday. On the one hand, it succeeded in infiltrating a drone into Israel, even though it was ultimately intercepted. Its ally Syria succeeded in shooting down an Israeli fighter jet. On the other hand, Israel carried out its most widespread bombings in Syria since it destroyed almost all of Syria’s air defenses in 1982.
Israel’s retaliation was important for two reasons – it needed to neutralize the Syrian batteries that were used to down the F-16, but also to exact a price from Iran by bombing the control center used to operate the drone as well as other Iranian targets in Syria – the nature of which we will likely learn over the coming days.

The question will be whether Israel succeeded in boosting its deterrence. That depends on what Iran decides to do next. Will it keep on building its presence in Syria? Will it attempt another violation of Israel’s sovereignty down the road?

While the downing of a fighter jet is a heavy blow to Israeli morale, it was not totally unexpected and needs to be viewed through the wider context of what has been going on for the last five years. Israel has carried out more than 100 strikes in Syria, and in war there are always wins and losses. The fact that a plane hasn’t been shot down until now is the real story and speaks volumes of the IAF’s superior capabilities.

Finally, Israel needs to be concerned by Russia’s response to the events on Saturday. In Moscow, the Foreign Ministry issued a statement calling for restraint and for all sides to “respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria.”

On the surface, it seems like Russia is taking Iran and Syria’s side and not Israel’s, despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s best efforts to win over Vladimir Putin and his countless meetings with the Russian president. Beyond the ministry statement’s rhetorical significance, it could have practical consequences if Russia decides to deny Israel operational freedom over Syria in the future.

Israel will have to tread carefully and will not have a lot of choice but to accept Moscow’s directives. While Russia has allowed Iran to establish a presence in Syria it has – until now – prevented it from setting up large bases or a presence right along the border with Israel on the Golan Heights.

That could all still happen – and will depend on what Russia’s interests will be when it comes to the future of Syria and the wider Middle East.

2b) Early this morning, Iranian forces in Syria sent an armed unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) into Israeli air space on a "hostile, military mission."  Israel intercepted the UAV and engaged in a military operation against Syrian and Iranian forces. Click here to watch a video of the UAV intercept.

The Director of our Jerusalem Office participated in a briefing by the IDF's Spokesman this morning. The details from their conversation are below my signature.

The Pentagon and State Department have each issued statements on this morning's events.  From the Pentagon: "Israel is our closest security partner in the region and we fully support Israel's inherent right to defend itself against threats to its territory and its people." The State Department said,  "Iran's calculated escalation of threat and its ambition to project its power and dominance, places all the people of the‎ region -- from Yemen to Lebanon -- at risk.‎ The U.S. continues to push back on the totality of Iran's malign activities in the region and calls for an end to Iranian behavior that threatens peace and stability."

The IDF was able to protect Israeli citizens by using an Apache Helicopter to intercept the armed Iranian UAV, and F-16 jets to neutralize Syrian and Iranian command and control centers. The acquisition of this advanced equipment is made possible by our work with Congress to ensure Israel receives annual security assistance. Last year, Congress approved $3.17 billion in security aid to Israel.

This escalation by Iran, and the increase of Iranian advanced military hardware and personnel in Syria, presents a new and developing challenge for Israel to confront. We are educating lawmakers about this emerging danger to Israel, the heightened potential for a major conflict between Israel and Iranian-backed forces on its northern border, and the need to ensure Israel has the resources required to defend itself against this - and any combination of threats.

Please let me know if I can help answer any questions, and I will continue to keep you up to date on this situation.

Sincerely,

Mark Kleinman
AIPAC Regional Director

2c)  The Case for Netanyahu

By Jonathan S. Tobin

Israel’s police are recommending the indictment of the prime minister. But there’s less to the charges of corruption than his critics would have you believe. Until proven otherwise, he’s still the indispensable man of Israeli politics.

On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu did what he does best. He blocked a vote slated to come up in a committee next week on the annexation of certain West Bank settlements. In doing so, he deftly fended off a challenge from his right-wing coalition partners. At the same time, he also protected Israel from an unnecessary quarrel with a Trump administration that is tilting heavily towards the Jewish state, but would have had to react negatively to anything that smacked of annexation.

Nobody but Netanyahu is as capable of balancing Israel’s diplomatic imperatives with its domestic political dynamic. His mix of foreign policy and security gravitas, coupled with keen political instincts, has made the Likud leader a unique figure in the country’s political landscape. Polls consistently show him as the one person seen as having the qualifications to lead by most Israelis. That is especially true when compared to his would-be replacements, such as Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid or the Zionist Union/Labor’s Avi Gabbay.

Questions are churning as to whether Netanyahu’s long stay at the summit of Israeli politics may soon be at an end. Israeli media outlets are saying that the heads of Israel’s police force are unanimous in recommending that he be indicted on corruption charges. While the final decision whether or not to press charges will be made by the nation’s attorney general, the issue remains troubling — and doesn’t seem to be going away.

The comparison between Trump and Netanyahu is logical in the limited sense that both men are reviled by the media establishments and liberal elites in their respective countries. But the analogy between Trump and Netanyahu, which is strengthened by the president’s closeness to Israel, only goes so far. The two may be alike in their propensity for making enemies but otherwise couldn’t be more different.In response, Netanyahu has pushed back hard against the police. That has prompted comparisons to President Donald Trump and his defenders, who have been assailing what they think is the unfairness of special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe of possible collusion charges with Russia.

Despite their policy differences and clear personal antagonism, the American leader Netanyahu most resembles is Barack Obama. Both are arrogant policy wonks who like to assert control over everything. They are also political virtuosos who drive their opponents off the deep end. While Obama’s belief that he had to “save Israel from itself” and appease Iran would have ruined relations with any Israeli prime minister, the similarities between the two men exacerbated an already fractious situation.

American pundits routinely criticize Netanyahu as someone who lacks the vision and/or courage to make peace with the Palestinians. Yet it’s their vision that’s cloudy. The prime minister understands something grasped by most Israelis but which eludes many foreign observers, including, at times, Trump: The Palestinians aren’t particularly interested in peace. Sometimes, the best moves are the ones you don’t make, which is why Netanyahu’s refusal to cede further territory to a Palestinian Authority that won’t recognize the legitimacy of a Jewish state — no matter where its borders are drawn — is widely supported by most Israelis. Netanyahu’s command of economics is also practically unique among Israeli premiers, including its current crop of politicians.

But if, like his predecessor Ehud Olmert, Netanyahu winds up in court fighting for his reputation and freedom, none of that may matter. An indictment will cripple him, and make it likely that the man who has been prime minister for the last nine years (in addition to the three years of his first term in the 1990s) won’t stay in office for long.

The comparisons with Olmert, who was convicted of serial corruption dating back to his years as mayor of Jerusalem, are specious. Two main charges are lobbed against Netanyahu, but despite the ominous sounding names given them by the police, neither stands up to scrutiny.

Case 1000 alleges that the Netanyahus took gifts of champagne and cigars from wealthy friends worth hundreds of thousands of shekels. But while that prompts unfavorable comparisons to ascetic Israeli founding fathers like David Ben-Gurion and Menachem Begin, there is no indication that any of their benefactors got anything in return. If the bribe wasn’t part of a quid pro quo, then it isn’t a bribe.

Case 2000 is even fishier. It concerns taped conversations between Netanyahu and Yediot Ahronot newspaper publisher Arnon Mozes. Netanyahu asked that Mozes scale back criticism in his paper, and in return said he would do something to reduce the circulation of Israel Hayom, the free daily that had overtaken Yediot as the country’s most widely read newspaper. Although Israel Hayom was owned by Netanyahu ally (and JNS donor) Sheldon Adelson, considering that Netanyahu had no ability to make good on that promise, the conversation was ludicrous. Nor is it reasonable to assert that it was illegal.

Netanyahu does stand guilty of having a wife with a famous temper, which was exposed by a recent tape of a tantrum she had while criticizing a subordinate. His son Yair’s boorish behavior was also taped and put on the record for the Israeli public. The entire family seems to have a sense of entitlement bred by years in power that rightly offends many Israelis.

But both the attempt to prosecute him on such flimsy charges and the intrusive scrutiny of his family says nothing about his fitness for office. The American principle of term limits for presidents is a tradition Israel might consider. But the reason why Netanyahu, despite him not being particularly lovable, remains in power is that there really is no good alternative.

That’s why those counting down the days until he’s evicted from office may be mistaken. Like it or not, Netanyahu’s clever political balancing act — and his courage in saying no to bad deals for his country — are still needed. The day will come when Israel’s people will have had enough of him, but the assumption that this day is near may be dead wrong.

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