A feeling from a long time, dear friend and fellow memo reader with which I concur:
"I have this terrible feeling that all those people/Media that hate Trump are happy that the market crashes.
They rather see America in ashes than successful and prosper under Trump.
I just can’t escape this disastrous feeling those people give me.
It does not help the IDIOT mentions the Market every time he opens his mouth.
I knew from the moment he said it the first time, it will come back to bite him; you don’t have to be a genius to predict that.
M=="
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Markets are said to climb a wall of worry. Worry is back and the height of the wall will be determined by inflation and The Fed's response regarding interest rates and the fact that we have a new Chairman.
We are getting closer to what should be a bottom.
I remain a nibbler.
An additional concern that will eventually be raised will be the deficit increase and as we get closer to the 2018 election, whether Republicans can hold the House. These are enough worries to keep the market going along as the economy continues to do well as I expect but it should also be more volatile .
Most of the unknowns are overseas, ie.Iran. N Korea, Middle East War and what will happen regarding trade agreements. (See 1 below.)
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Dick
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1) More Rants From Ross''
Relax, the market did what I expected and tanked on Monday. That is pretty much the norm as these things go. It is not the number of points lost, but the relative percentage and vs December 31. Remember we had a beyond spectacular January, so a slide back is not out of line. The programs that control 70% of trading kicked in and sold. Meantime the economic stats continue to roil in far better than forecast. The ISM service sector index was well above forecast, more companies are giving bonuses and 401K contributions and more are announcing expansion plans. As mentioned, even at 3% the ten year is well below its normal level and it has been as high as 10% in the past. 3% is a great rate to index off of. It is still very cheap money. Now banks can make a spread off that and their profits will increase nicely so buying banks is a good move. Whether it is tomorrow or the next day, traders will move in to take advantage of the lower prices of stocks, and the market will go up again. How long it takes to crest 26,000 again is anybody’s guess, but it will as the economy charges ahead. We have barely seen the benefits of the tax bill, and as the year moves on deregulation will have a major positive impact. If the Dems allow an infrastructure program to get approved, instead of their usual resistance to anything good, then the economy will really boom. Some very top forecasters are now even predicting 7% growth in GDP, the Atlanta Feds says 5.4%, which to me seems way over done. But maybe they are right. As I mentioned there is no logic, but the better the economy and corporate earnings, and wages, the more the markets over react and assume the Fed is going to over react and shut down the growth. Not under Powell will that happen. He is a private equity guy and well known as cautious and careful, and not a hawk on rates. If it makes you feel better I sold nothing and am just waiting for the rebound, whenever that comes. There is no recession, no slowdown in growth which is accelerating, and no financial system weakness. This is NOT 1987, or 2008. This is nothing more than the market taking a breather after a spectacular run up, and some traders taking profits. Nothing is happening out of the ordinary and there is nothing in the economy to suggest a major problem. The collusion memo thing is going to explode over the next several months, and that will mean Republicans retain full control and probably pick up seats in the Senate. That is all very good for the economy and the markets. Trump is not getting charged, ( you might notice that everyone other than Schiff stopped talking about collusion and moved on to obstruction), and he is not getting impeached, much to the dismay of the liberals. Hang on, all will be fine as the year progresses and the tax bill and deregulation drive GDP and earnings to new highs. Bonds are no place to hide since if there is inflation, and if GDP really rises a lot, bonds and annuities are the last place you want to be.
The Dems will try to say Carter Page was under scrutiny for several years and there was much more to the FISA warrant than the dossier and Yahoo. As I said before, none of that is relevant. What matters according to Jim Kalstrom, former asst director of the FBI, is that several laws were broken by senior execs of the FBI and DOJ re the dossier and the Yahoo article, and the procedure used was completely out of line with normal FISA procedure. That from a former top executive of the FBI who was involved in many FIAS warrants, and who has no political attachments at all. You might note that Page has been surveilled since 2013, but never charged with doing anything wrong. People who read the 4 FISA warrants report that the dossier was the prime item in all of them, and none of what was known to the FBI and DOJ about Steele or the origins of the dossier and news article was provided to the judges. Remember McCabe said there was no FISA warrant without the dossier. Schiff will try to refute that, but It has been corroborated. The rest of whatever they gave to the judges does not matter here on the issue of lying to the judges about the dossier and Yahoo News item. I believe when the inspector general reports are released they will make the “memo “ look tame. When the next series of intelligence committee reports come and the dots start to get connected it is going to get harder and harder for Schiff to lie, mislead, and cover up. We are just at the very early stages of this and when it is done Schiff and the Dems will look like fools, and Schiff will no longer be a candidate for governor which is what his actions are really all about. One day maybe even the press will discover how bad the Clintons and the Dems, and the FBI and Ohr really have been, and begin to report it truthfully. It took time for Watergate to fully unfold, and this will take time as well.
When Schumer tried to give a talk at Harvard last week, he was shouted down by students demanding the government be shut down unless they got what they wanted on DACCA. So now we have reached the final step in the campus approach of giving in to the rabble who were able to shut down speakers, professors or anything they deemed offensive. Even supposedly smart Harvard students do not understand you do not have a right, nor is it smart to shut down the government for any reason, and surely not for the demands of any small minority. This is what I have been talking about for months would be the final outcome of the permissive attitude on campuses where only what the minority demands are allowed. Apparently they never heard of elections, and the rule of law which we live by in the real world. Just imagine the anarchy if every group was able to shut the government for its cause. This is the very dangerous training these kids are getting in college today. We are just seeing the start of this on DACCA, even though Trump gave them 3 times what they asked for, they still act as though he gave nothing on DACCA. It matters not to the brats, Shutting the government is how they think things are supposed to operate, sine that is how they operated on campus.
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