Dear God,
My prayer for 2012 is for
a fat bank account & a thin body.
Please try not to mix them up like you did last year.
AMEN!
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We just returned from a week trip to visit our Black Belt pregnant daughter in Orlando, her husband and his family for the Christmas/Channukah season and then we spent a few days on Amelia island before we took the back road return trip (Highway 17 through Jekyll Island, Brunswick, Darien etc.) Along the way we saw a lot of small Post Offices and I began to think about what the impact would be if these, obviously unprofitable locations, closed.
Two thoughts came to mind. First, if the government turned the job over to WalMart's management I suspect the delivery of our mail would improve , the department's horrendous losses would narrow and second, I asked myself what if the U.S. Government was also in charge of picking up our trash and garbage.
It should be abundantly clear, to most anyone that can see, big government is not efficient nor generally capable of delivering in a cost efficient manner. Sad but history is on my side..
Another thought I had was now that the elder Bush has given a nod to Romney, Romney would be well advised to urge Jeb Bush to run as his Vice President. Jeb was a good governor, would solidify the South and thus help swing Florida as well as appeal to Spanish citizens having married one.
Jeb said he did not want to run for the presidency but one day he might choose to do so and here is an opportunity to help his own party and the nation as well. Romney and Jeb would make a great team that should have broad appeal.
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This from an old and dear friend: "Dear Dick and Lynn,Bunny and I want to wish you and your family a Happy New Year.
I am hoping that we are in for some serious political reawakening and changes to happen in 2012, but I fear that the Public (read government) School system has done it's work well. Most of the electorate are more interested in "bread and circuses" than they are in what is really important. We are at the edge of the cliff, and the lemmings are leading us over the precipice. I truly fear for the fate of our Nation, but the dumb masses are now in control.
Until all members of government, executive, legislative and judicial branches, are subject to the same laws as the rest of us, there is no reliable future. As a member of the financial industry, you (and I) were very aware of the insider trading rules, but they don't apply to the legislative branch. Members of that branch don't have to go on Medicare and its alternatives when they become eligible, nor do they have to face the hardships of wondering whether the government will "take away Social Security", and providers threaten to discontinue treating Medicare covered patients because they loose money on everyone they treat. Of course, I'm sure our present legislators may look on this fact and then say that even though they loose on every patient, they can make it up in the volume of new patients they will be seeing.
Alexis-Charles-Henri Clérel de Tocqueville predicted this would happen 200 years ago.
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It is time for predictions and mine for the markets in the New Year is predicated on two hypothesis.
If you are optimistic then this is the scenario for you;
What can go right:
a) Europe will escape a recession and we will avoid the impact.
b) China will continue its growth but at a slower pace, ie. 7 to 8 %.
c) The effect of inflation/deflation will not be evident.
d)There will be no Middle East confrontation.
e) Oppressive debt will not become a bigger problem.
f) 'Obamascare' is ruled by The Supreme Court to be illegal and/or an over-reach and its effect sharply curtailed.
g) Obama loses the election, Republicans control the Senate and our new president is rational, practical, tough and can get Congress to right our ship of state.
If you are a pessimist then this is the scenario that should concern you:
What can go wrong:
a) Europe will experience a downturn which will have an effect on our own modest recovery.
b) China will continue to grow but the cumulative effect of a downturn in Europe and slower U.S. growth will reduce China's growth rate by several per cents.
c) Deflation will become more of a concern.
d) The Middle East could flare up if Iran continues to make nuclear progress, Iraq fails to remain stable, N Korea creates problems in that area of the world and a terrorist strike creates social and/or financial havoc.
e) There is no way mounting debt can avoid impacting our way of life and the Republic's economic survival and well being.
f) The Supreme Court upholds 'Obamascare' as legal and fully enforceable.
g) Obama wins re-election, persists in his policies that are so injurious to our nation and Democrats continue to control the Senate.
If the optimistic scenario occurs then technology, health care, energy and industrial investments should do well.
If the pessimistic scenario holds then technology, health care, energy, defensive consumer companies and precious metal investments should be places to hide along with very short term debt instruments serving as a cash reserve.
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A Happy and Healthy New Year!
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Dick
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