Time To Ponder What Could Go Right?

For those who take the time to read some or most of what I write they know I spend a significant amount of time discussing problems we face. However, several months ago I broached the idea 'yeah we already know the problems but is it time to think about what could go right?' Consequently, I would like to now briefly explore that side of the equation.

There are times, in history, and even in one's personal experience, when being down can result in miscalculations and cloud judgement. I believe we are at such a juncture point. Remember in the eighties we thought the Japanese would rule the world and they wound up buying Pebble Beach Golf Course for over a billion dollars and eventually bankrupted on the contract.?

Coincidentally, America went through a decade of remaking itself in terms of shifting our nation's industrial emphasis. We emphasized technology, biotechnology etc.recovered and experienced a solid period of growth while Russia disintegrated.

I believe we currently stand in awe of China and should but I also believe we have overestimated China's ability to smoothly transform itself.

China's ownership of our debt reflects a tragic mishandling of our financial affairs but it also makes China vulnerable because, as our most significant creditor, their options are thereby somewhat limited and curtailed.

Second, our problems have finally surfaced for all to see and a discordant but healthy debate has begun about what must be done to rectify the mess. You cannot solve a problem until you recognize you have one.

The debate has not yet flushed up solutions but in time it should/will and then we will have to face another problem - what are we willing to do?

Finally, we soon will have the opportunity to rid ourselves of the Obama albatross whose purposeful policies are dividing us, adding incomparable debt and crippling our ability to feel good about what it means to be an American.

Obama's incompetence is bad enough but he is also corrupt and a liar and those are not leadership characteristics Americans respect and/or embrace.

The disunity and confusion Obama's lack of directional leadership has caused, if ended, will/could unleash a feeling of relief which, in my humble opinion, will/could result in a period of optimism that will/could allow a new president and reordered Congress to move us out of our national morass despite the fact that it might also entail discomfort.

When America is united it is a force to be reckoned with and I long for the day when America will be regaing the ability to reassert itself and become a positive force in a troubled world.

Looking at the market through this budding prism of potential hope (not Obama's misguided definition) I expect the market will continue to be unsettled and move lower very near term. That said, I also believe nuggets of long term value are beginning to surface and I am personally starting to dip my toe into these murky waters while, at the same time, I am retaining a significant amount of reserves in support of my belief we are still in a secular Bear Market and because the pending World Economic melt down will take years to resolve.

Time will tell. It always does.
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Happiest of Thanksgivings!
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Dick
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