Saturday, September 15, 2007

Obama the lighweight aligns with Carter's incompetents!

More regarding basis for IAF's attack. It also demonstrated to the US that Syrian and probably Iranian air defenses are penetrable notwithstanding, Russia's supplying equipment. (See 1 and 2 below.)

Diplomacy for now regarding Iran. (See 3 below.)

Israel's MI chief, Amos Yadlin, warns Hamas is planning a major attack to disrupt the upcoming meeting on the Middle East and advises Fatah will not retake Gaza, Hamas continues to receives money and is functioning, Israel's deterrence capability has returned to pre-Lebanon War status and Iran already considers itself in the nuclear club of nations. (See 4 below.)

Nothing surprising about Obama taking on more beef in the diplomatic arena nor that he chose Brzezinski, who has always been negative regarding Israel. Obama is a lightweight and gravitates towards Carter advisors who were incompetent. (See 5 below.)

Dick

1) The U.K. newspaper The Sunday Times quoted an Israeli source on Sunday as saying that Syria had been planning a "devastating surprise" for Israel, in the wake of report that the Israel Air

When asked to elaborate Kim hung up the phone, Yonhap reported.

The U.K. newspaper The Observer reported Sunday that Israel's reported strike on Syria involved as many as eight aircraft.

According to the report, the force included F-15s and F-16s equipped with Maverick missiles and 500 pound bombs.

Flying among the warplanes at great height, The Observer reported, was an electronic intelligence gathering aircraft.

According to the Times report, an IAF commando team that had arrived on the ground days earlier directed laser beams at the target for the jets.

Meanwhile, the weekly German news magazine reported Sunday that a German intelligence ship stationed off the coast of Lebanon as part of a United Nations peacekeeping force identified two F-15 jets entering Syrian airspace.

Syria's ambassador to Washington over the weekend denied foreign media reports that an Israel Air Force strike on his country 10 days ago targeted a nuclear project being undertaken with the cooperation of North Korea.

According to the foreign press reports, the target of the IAF raid was a Syrian nuclear installation that was constructed in the northeastern corner of the country, with North Korean assistance.

In an interview to Newsweek, Imad Moustapha called the reports "absolutely, totally, fundamentally ridiculous and untrue."

"There are no nuclear North Korean-Syrian facilities whatsoever in Syria," Moustapha said.

On Saturday, The Washington Post published an article saying the IAF strike was aimed at a shipment that had arrived in Syria aboard a North Korean vessel three days earlier, and may have included equipment and materials related to nuclear technology.


2) Israelis 'blew apart Syrian nuclear cache' Secret raid on Korean shipment
By Uzi Mahnaimi in Tel Aviv, Sarah Baxter in Washington and Michael Sheridan


IT was just after midnight when the 69th Squadron of Israeli F15Is crossed
the Syrian coast-line. On the ground, Syria's formidable air defences went
dead.

An audacious raid on a Syrian target 50 miles from the Iraqi border was
under way.

At a rendezvous point on the ground, a Shaldag air force commando team was
waiting to direct their laser beams at the target for the approaching jets.
The team had arrived a day earlier, taking up position near a large underground
depot. Soon the bunkers were in flames.

Ten days after the jets reached home, their mission was the focus of intense
speculation this weekend amid claims that Israel believed it had destroyed a
cache of nuclear materials from North Korea.

The Israeli government was not saying. "The security sources and IDF
[Israeli Defence Forces] soldiers are demonstrating unusual courage," said
Ehud Olmert, the prime minister. "We naturally cannot always show the public
our cards."

The Syrians were also keeping mum. "I cannot reveal the details," said
Farouk al-Sharaa, the vice-president. "All I can say is the military and
political echelon is looking into a series of responses as we speak. Results
are forthcoming." The official story that the target comprised weapons
destined for Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shi'ite group, appeared
to be crumbling in the face of widespread scepticism.

Andrew Semmel, a senior US State Department official, said Syria might have
obtained nuclear equipment from "secret suppliers", and added that there
were a "number of foreign technicians" in the country.

Asked if they could be North Korean, he replied: "There are North Korean
people there. There's no question about that." He said a network run by AQ
Khan, the disgraced creator of Pakistan's nuclear weapons, could be
involved.

But why would nuclear material be in Syria? Known to have chemical weapons,
was it seeking to bolster its arsenal with something even more deadly?

Alternatively, could it be hiding equipment for North Korea, enabling Kim
Jong-il to pretend to be giving up his nuclear program in exchange for
economic aid? Or was the material bound for Iran, as some authorities in
America suggest?

According to Israeli sources, preparations for the attack had been going on
since late spring, when Meir Dagan, the head of Mossad, presented Olmert
with evidence that Syria was seeking to buy a nuclear device from North
Korea.

The Israeli spy chief apparently feared such a device could eventually be
installed on North-Korean-made Scud-C missiles.

"This was supposed to be a devastating Syrian surprise for Israel," said an
Israeli source. "We've known for a long time that Syria has deadly chemical
warheads on its Scuds, but Israel can't live with a nuclear warhead."

An expert on the Middle East, who has spoken to Israeli participants in the
raid, told yesterday's Washington Post that the timing of the raid on
September 6 appeared to be linked to the arrival three days earlier of a
ship carrying North Korean material labeled as cement but suspected of
concealing nuclear equipment.

The target was identified as a northern Syrian facility that purported to be
an agricultural research center on the Euphrates river. Israel had been
monitoring it for some time, concerned that it was being used to extract
uranium from phosphates.

According to an Israeli air force source, the Israeli satellite Ofek 7,
launched in June, was diverted from Iran to Syria. It sent out high-quality
images of a northeastern area every 90 minutes, making it easy for air force
specialists to spot the facility.

Early in the summer Ehud Barak, the defense minister, had given the order to
double Israeli forces on its Golan Heights border with Syria in anticipation
of possible retaliation by Damascus in the event of air strikes.

Sergei Kirpichenko, the Russian ambassador to Syria, warned President Bashar
al-Assad last month that Israel was planning an attack, but suggested the
target was the Golan Heights.

Israeli military intelligence sources claim Syrian special forces moved
towards the Israeli outpost of Mount Hermon on the Golan Heights. Tension
rose, but nobody knew why.

At this point, Barak feared events could spiral out of control. The decision
was taken to reduce the number of Israeli troops on the Golan Heights and
tell Damascus the tension was over. Syria relaxed its guard shortly before
the Israeli Defence Forces struck.

Only three Israeli cabinet ministers are said to have been in the know ?
Olmert, Barak and Tzipi Livni, the foreign minister. America was also
consulted.

According to Israeli sources, American air force codes were given to the
Israeli air force attache in Washington to ensure Israel's F15Is would not
mistakenly attack their US counterparts.

Once the mission was under way, Israel imposed draconian military censorship
and no news of the operation emerged until Syria complained that Israeli
aircraft had violated its airspace. Syria claimed its air defenses had
engaged the planes, forcing them to drop fuel tanks to lighten their loads
as they fled. But intelligence sources suggested it was a highly successful Israeli raid on nuclear material supplied by North Korea.

Washington was rife with speculation last week about the precise nature of
the operation. One source said the air strikes were a diversion for a daring
Israeli commando raid, in which nuclear materials were intercepted en route
to Iran and hauled to Israel. Others claimed they were destroyed in the
attack.

There is no doubt, however, that North Korea is accused of nuclear
cooperation with Syria, helped by AQ Khan's network. John Bolton, who was
undersecretary for arms control at the State Department, told the United
Nations in 2004 the Pakistani nuclear scientist had "several other"
customers besides Iran, Libya and North Korea.

Some of his evidence came from the CIA, which had reported to Congress that
it viewed "Syrian nuclear intentions with growing concern".

"I've been worried for some time about North Korea and Iran outsourcing
their nuclear programs," Bolton said last week. Syria, he added, was a
member of a "junior axis of evil", with a well-established ambition to
develop weapons of mass destruction.

The links between Syria and North Korea date back to the rule of Kim Il-sung
and President Hafez al-Assad in the last century. In recent months, their
sons have quietly ordered an increase in military and technical cooperation.

Foreign diplomats who follow North Korean affairs are taking note. There
were reports of Syrian passengers on flights from Beijing to Pyongyang and
sightings of Middle Eastern businessmen from sources who watch the trains
from North Korea to China.

On August 14, Rim Kyong Man, the North Korean foreign trade minister, was in
Syria to sign a protocol on "cooperation in trade and science and
technology". No details were released, but it caught Israel's attention.

Syria possesses between 60 and 120 Scud-C missiles, which it has bought from
North Korea over the past 15 years. Diplomats believe North Korean engineers
have been working on extending their 300-mile range. It means they can be
used in the deserts of northeastern Syria ? the area of the Israeli strike.
The triangular relationship between North Korea, Syria and Iran continues to
perplex intelligence analysts. Syria served as a conduit for the transport
to Iran of an estimated £50m of missile components and technology sent by
sea from North Korea. The same route may be in use for nuclear equipment.

But North Korea is at a sensitive stage of negotiations to end its nuclear
programme in exchange for security guarantees and aid, leading some
diplomats to cast doubt on the likelihood that Kim would cross America's
"red line" forbidding the proliferation of nuclear materials.

Christopher Hill, the State Department official representing America in the
talks, said on Friday he could not confirm "intelligence-type things", but
the reports underscored the need "to make sure the North Koreans get out of
the nuclear business".

By its actions, Israel showed it is not interested in waiting for diplomacy
to work where nuclear weapons are at stake.

As a bonus, the Israelis proved they could penetrate the Syrian air defence
system, which is stronger than the one protecting Iranian nuclear sites.

This weekend President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran sent Ali Akbar Mehrabian,
his nephew, to Syria to assess the damage. The new "axis of evil" may have
lost one of its spokes.

3) Gates: US favors diplomacy with Iran


The Bush administration is committed, for now, to using diplomatic and economic means to counter the potential nuclear threat from Iran, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sunday.


Speculation has persisted about preparations for a military strike against Iran for its alleged support for terrorism and its nuclear program.

Gates, in a broadcast interview, said he would not discuss "hypotheticals" about what President George W. Bush "may or may not do."

"I think that the administration believes at this point that continuing to try and deal with the Iranian threat, the Iranian challenge, through diplomatic and economic means is by far the preferable approach. That's the one we are using," the Pentagon chief said.

"We always say all options are on the table, but clearly, the diplomatic and economic approach is the one that we are pursuing," he added.

The diplomatic approach takes center stage at a conference in Washington on Friday. The US hosts the UN Security Council's four other permanent members - Britain, China, France, Russia - plus Germany to press for new penalties against oil-rich Iran.

But earlier Sunday, the Daily Telegraph reported that Bush and his associates were seriously considering declaring war on Iran and have even listed specific facilities that would be targeted in such an event, while Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has slowly given up the idea of finding a diplomatic solution to the country's persistence in enriching uranium.

According to senior US defense and intelligence officials that spoke with the Telegraph, the Pentagon has gathered a list of up to 2,000 targets including a major base run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Quds Force in the south.

Pentagon and CIA officers said that such a war would come to pass as a result of a "carefully calibrated program of escalation" that would lead to a "military showdown with Iran," the officials told the newspaper.

This scenario could arise once it was apparent that diplomatic efforts with the country were hopeless. When Iran would be internationally denounced for its interference in Iraq, the US could conduct cross border raids on Iranian training camps and bomb factories.

The report said that the raids would provoke a "major Iranian response" that could result in a halt to Gulf oil supplies; this in turn, said experts, would provide legitimacy to strike Iran's nuclear facilities and armed forces.

An intelligence officer noted that the US military had "two major contingency plans" for air strikes on Iran.

"One is to bomb only the nuclear facilities. The second option is for a much bigger strike that would - over two or three days - hit all of the significant military sites as well. This plan involves more than 2,000 targets."

The Pentagon has isolated its main target as the Fajr Garrison in Ahwaz - where it is believed that Iran manufactures self-propelled missiles used against coalition forces in Iraq.

A source told the Telegraph that "a strike will probably follow a gradual escalation. Over the next few weeks and months the US will build tensions and evidence around Iranian activities in Iraq."

Meanwhile, the Telegraph claimed that Rice was prepared to come to an agreement with Vice-President Dick Cheney and consent to military action against Iran.

Rice has been pressured by "senior counter-proliferation officials" to admit that military action may be necessary, a State Department official told the newspaper. She is now working with Cheney to "find a way to reconcile their positions and present a united front to the President."

4) Hamas planning a major terror attack'



Hamas is planning a major terror attack in Israel in an attempt to derail the Mideast summit which is set to take place in Washington in November, Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin, head of Military Intelligence, told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Sunday.


The MI chief also predicted that the Islamic group is capable of taking control of the West Bank, but has so far failed to do so due to Israel's military presence in the area.

During his assessment on the state of Palestinian affairs, Yadlin added that he does not believe Fatah will regain control of the Gaza Strip. Further, the general said that while the economic sanctions imposed on Gaza are having an effect on Hamas, the organization is still managing to stay afloat with the help of a constant influx of money. The money, he said, is coming from many sources, including funds that were earmarked for humanitarian aid in Gaza.

Later during his briefing, Yadlin said that Israeli military deterrence against Syria and Iran has returned to the level that it was at before the Second Lebanon War, and is now having a major impact on the region.

"[Israeli deterrence] is having an effect on the whole region, including on Iran and Syria," Yadlin said during his intelligence briefing to the committee.

Yadlin devoted much of his briefing to the topic of Iran, saying that senior Iranian officials are for the first time hinting about the strategic and military nature of their nuclear program. Further, Yadlin said that officials in Teheran have already started considering themselves part of the world's list of nuclear nations, adding that they think "they belong to the club."

"The Iranians are giving multiple messages to the world," the general continued. "One, that we've crossed the point of no return - we are already in the club of those who know how to produce nuclear power. Two, the sanctions will not help to stop that, and we are continuing. Three, the price of a confrontation with us will be too great."

According to Yadlin, the Iranians are unhappy with the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) monitoring their nuclear program, and are hoping to have the monitoring process returned to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

"The Iranians want their case returned to the IAEA, because if that happens, the Iranians will be able to control the time schedule," Yadlin said. "They will be able to provide only partial answers, and to delay the process."

Commenting on the affect that the UNSC sanctions are having on Iran, Yadlin said that they are not having much of an impact. Further, Yadlin said that the Iranian people still stand behind their country's nuclear program. He added, however, that Iranians are critical about one thing: "The economic policies of [Iranian President] Ahmadinejad."

5) Obama advisor raises concerns: Zbigniew Brzezinski defended attack on US Jewish lobby; but analysts warn against hasty conclusions
By Yaakov Lappin


Concerns have been raised among Israel supporters in the US following the appointment of a controversial veteran political advisor by Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.


Last week, Obama introduced Zbigniew Brzezinski as "one of our most outstanding thinkers" during a policy speech in Iowa on the Iraq war.


Brzezinski, aged 79, has been selected by Obama to advise him on foreign policy affairs. Previously, he served as a national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter.


One of the most troubling aspects of Brzezinski's appointment for allies of Israel is his defense of the book, 'The Israel Lobby,' authored by academics Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer. In it, they attack what they say is an overly powerful Jewish lobby which , they claim, is damaging America's interests. Their case has been accused of echoing traditional anti-Semitic thought and critics say it is based on faulty scholarship. But Brzezinski has described critics of Walt and Mearsheimer as "McCarthyists."



In an article in the Foreign Policy publication, Brzezinki wrote: "Given that the Middle East is currently the central challenge facing America, Professors John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt have rendered a public service by initiating a much needed public debate on the role of the 'Israel lobby' in the shaping of US foreign policy." Walt and Mearsheimer responded by thanking Brzezinksi. For his part, Obama has distanced himself from the book.



Brzezinki's appointment immediately came under fire from Harvard law professor Alan Dershowiz, who was quoted by the Politico website as saying: "It is a tremendous mistake for Barack Obama to select as a foreign policy adviser the one person in public life who has chosen to support a bigoted book."



A spokeswoman for the Obama campaign, Jennifer Psaki, defended Brzezinski's appointment, and said that opposition to the Iraq war formed the main common ground between Brzezinski and Obama.



"Barack Obama has a strong record in support of a secure Israel and he will continue to foster a strong US - Israel relationship when he is in the White House," the spokeswoman was quoted by the New York Sun as saying.



'Too soon to draw conclusions'

Despite the escalating argument in the US, analysts in Israel seemed largely unfazed by Brzezinski's appointment.



Professor Gerald Steinberg, head of the Political Studies Department at Bar Ilan University, told Ynetnews that it was premature to draw conclusions based on the appointment.



"This may not be significant," Steinberg said. "Brzezinski is roughly the same age as Kissnger. I view his appointment as being more symbolic, to try and shore up Obama's image as someone who has no experience in foreign policy, so he's bringing in an older statesman to try and bring in a different image," he added.



In addition, Steinberg said, Brzezinski did not offer "a very strong defense" of Walt and Mearsheimer's paper.



"What will count if Obama is elected are Obama's own positions. He has a broad range of advisors who have a long history of being pro-Israel. It's premature to see this as a major tilt by Obama towards a position like the one held by Cater," Steinberg said.



David Ricci, a professor of political science and American studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, agreed that Brzezinksi's age prevented him from taking up a "serious appointment, even if Obama is voted in."



Dr Arie Kacowicz, who teaches international relations at the Hebrew University, told Ynetnews that Brzezinksi has "a history of certain hostility towards Isael, as seen in the first Camp David meetings of 1978. Having said that, I wouldn't conclude from his appointment that Obama is changing his opinion towards our country."



Meanwhile, Dore Gold, formerly Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, told Ynetnews that while Israel should be monitoring such developments, Jerusalem should not express any view points on what is an internal American issue.



"The question of who are the advisers to American presidential candidates is part of internal political process, and foreign countries such as Israel cannot express views on various appointments," he added. Gold said that "like many other European and Asian countries, Israel must monitor these developments closely in order to see whether to see a potential presidential candidate will improve US relations with their country or possibly disrupt them."

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