No guts, no glory! Our blunders mount!

Daniel Pipes reports on the most pressing problem and question. Can the IAF do what must be done if called upon? Pipes confirms what I have been stating - GW is probably going to follow Rice's advice and cop out by allowing Iran to achieve nuclear status so he can politically withdraw from Iran.

From a president who had all the opportunities to go down as a great one it is increasingly likely he will go down around the Carter level. Peggy Noonan may well be right.

No guts no glory! (see 1 below.)

Hamas has just about taken over Gaza. Fatah and Abbas have proven to be the disaster any sensible person could have seen them to be but the Administration and our State Department who kept pressing Israel to arm Fatah to the bitter end. Hamas came to power also because of Administration and Sate Department miscalculations. Oh well, just add these to their growing list of blunders. (See 2 below.)

Meanwhile, Syria, operating thru surrogates, has taken out another anti-Syrian, Lebanese politician along with his son and others while we stand mute. (See 3 below.)

Dick





1) Can the IAF take out Iran's nukes?
By DANIEL PIPES



Barring a "catastrophic development," reports Middle East Newsline, George W. Bush has decided not to attack Iran. An administration source explains that Washington deems Iran's cooperation "needed for a withdrawal [of US forces] from Iraq."

If correct, this implies that the Jewish state stands alone against a regime that threatens to "wipe Israel off the map" and is building nuclear weapons to do so. Israeli leaders are hinting their patience is running out; Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz warned that "diplomatic efforts should bear results by the end of 2007."

Can the Israel Defense Forces in fact disrupt Iran's nuclear program?

Top secret analyses from intelligence agencies normally do not reply to such a question. But talented outsiders, using open sources, can. Whitney Raas and Austin Long studied this problem at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and published their impressive analysis, "Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities," in the journal International Security.

RAAS AND LONG focus exclusively on feasibility, not political desirability or strategic ramifications: Were the Israeli national command to decide to damage the Iranian infrastructure, could its forces accomplish this mission? The authors consider five components of a successful strike:

# Intelligence: To impede the production of fissile material requires incapacitating only three facilities of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. In ascending order of importance, these are: the heavy water plant and plutonium production reactors under construction at Arak, a uranium conversion facility in Isfahan, and a uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. Destroying the Natanz facility in particular, they note, "is critical to impeding Iran's progress toward nuclearization."

# Ordinance: To damage all three facilities with reasonable confidence requires - given their size and being underground, the weapons available to the Israeli forces, and other factors - 24 5,000-lb. weapons and 24 2,000-lb. weapons.

# Platforms: Noting the "odd amalgamation of technologies" available to the Iranians and the limitations of their fighter planes and ground defenses to stand up to the hi-tech Israeli air force, Raas-Long calculate the IDF needs a relatively small strike package of 25 F-15Is and 25 F-16Is.

# Routes: Israeli jets can reach their targets via three paths: Turkey to the north, Jordan and Iraq in the middle, or Saudi Arabia to the south. In terms of fuel and cargo, the distances in all three cases are manageable.

# Defense forces: Rather than predict the outcome of an Israeli-Iranian confrontation, the authors calculate, for the operation to succeed, how many out of the 50 Israeli planes would have to reach their three targets. They figure 24 planes must reach Natanz, six Isfahan, and five Arak, or 35 all together. Turned around, that means the Iranian defenders minimally must stop 16 of 50 planes, or one-third of the strike force. The authors consider this attrition rate "considerable" for Natanz and "almost unimaginable" for the other two targets.

In all, Raas-Long find relentless modernization of Israel's air force gives it "the capability to destroy even well-hardened targets in Iran with some degree of confidence." Comparing an Iranian operation to Israel's 1981 attack on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor, which was a complete success, they find this one "would appear to be no more risky" than the earlier one.

THE GREAT question mark hanging over the operation, one which the authors do not speculate about, is whether any of the Turkish, Jordanian, American or Saudi governments would acquiesce to Israeli penetration of their air spaces. (Iraq, recall, is under American control). Unless the Israelis win advance permission to cross these territories, their jets might have to fight their way to Iran. More than any other factor, this one imperils the entire project. (The IDF could reduce this problem by flying along borders, for example, the Turkey-Syria one, permitting both countries en route to claim Israeli planes were in the other fellow's air space.)

Raas-Long imply, but do not state, the IDF could reach Kharg Island, through which over 90 percent of Iranian oil is exported, heavily damaging the Iranian economy.

That Israeli forces have "a reasonable chance of success" to unilaterally destroy key Iranian nuclear facilities could help deter Teheran from proceeding with its weapon program. The Raas-Long study, therefore, makes a diplomatic deal more likely. Its results deserve the widest possible dissemination.

2) Hamas appears close to taking over entire Gaza Strip


Hamas fighters launched a fierce offensive on Gaza City on Wednesday, attacking the main security bases and the Palestinian Authority chairman's compound with mortars and rockets and sending some of the rival Fatah forces fleeing in disarray as the Islamic group appeared close to taking over the entire Gaza Strip.

With the fighting raging on rooftops and streets in nearly all corners of Gaza, residents huddled in fear in their homes, hoping to keep their families safe from stray bullets and shrapnel.

Fayez Abu Taha, 45, a businessman in the southern town of Rafah, said he was trapped in his apartment building with his family after Hamas fighters took over a nearby rooftop and Fatah responded by taking over the roof of his building.

"I don't know what they are battling for now," he said. "I can see the bullets flying from my windows. Coming and going."

PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah called the fighting "madness" and pleaded with Hamas's exiled leader for a halt to the violence. Abbas's forces - desperately trying to cling to their besieged bases in Gaza - lashed out at the president, saying he left them with no directions and no support in the fight.

Abbas and PA Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas issued a joint statement after nightfall, calling on all sides "to halt fighting, and to return to language of dialogue and respect of agreements," according to a statement from Abbas's office. The call was broadcast on Palestinian TV.

The two have made numerous calls for an end to the fighting in the past, to no avail.

No one was listening to the elected leaders as the focus of power passed to street militias.
Hamas gunmen neutralized recognized security forces linked to Fatah in frontal assaults on their strong points, ruling the streets and taking control of large parts Gaza in the process.

The rout of the security forces was so bad that 40 Palestinian security officers broke through the border fence in Rafah and fled into Egypt seeking safety, Egyptian police said.

"What I can I say? This is a fall, a collapse," said Col. Nasser Khaldi, a senior police official in Rafah.

In Washington, US officials condemned the fighting. "Violence certainly does not serve the interest of the Palestinian people, and it's not going to bring the peace and prosperity that they deserve," White House spokesman Tony Snow said.

At least 15 people were killed in fighting Wednesday, bringing the total in the four-day campaign to nearly 60. Among those killed Wednesday was a man shot when Hamas gunmen fired at a peaceful protest against the violence, witnesses said.

In one dramatic battle, hundreds of members of the Fatah-allied Bakr clan, which had fought fiercely for two days, surrendered to masked Hamas gunmen and were led, arms raised in the air, to a nearby mosque. Footage broadcast on Hamas' Al Aqsa TV showed some of the Bakr women trying to enter the mosque. Hamas gunmen later drove off with some of the Bakr fighters, witnesses said.

Two women from the clan tried to leave the area to take a sick girl to a hospital and were shot and killed by jittery Hamas gunmen, a clan member said.

After nightfall, Hamas militants blew up the house of one of the Bakr clan's leaders, witnesses said.

Hamas, already in control of much of northern Gaza, seized the southern town of Khan Younis on Wednesday and began a coordinated assault on the town of Rafah, security officials said.
On Wednesday afternoon, they launched attacks on the three main compounds of the Fatah-allied forces in Gaza City - the headquarters of the Preventive Security, the Intelligence Service and the National Forces - in what could usher in the final phase of the battle.

Hamas fighters, firing rockets and mortar shells, took over the rooftops in nearby houses and cut off the roads to prevent reinforcements from arriving. They called on the beleaguered Fatah forces to surrender.

Hamas gunmen in high-rise buildings also fired at Abbas' Gaza office and house and his guard force returned fire. Abbas was in the West Bank at the time of the fighting.

During the battle at the Preventive Security Service base, both sides fired wildly from high-rise rooftops.

Dr. Wael Abdel Jawad, a physician trapped in his apartment, said he heard Fatah fighters shouting at colleagues on an adjacent roof to send them more ammunition. "All of us are terrified here.

Shooting came through the windows of our apartment, children are screaming. We are hearing from a nearby mosque the call by Hamas to surrender," he said.

"Those fighters on rooftops are like Don Quixote, tilting at windmills. They don't know where to shoot," he said.

Earlier Wednesday, Hamas militants surrounded a security headquarters in Khan Younis and called on everyone inside to leave or they would blow it up, witnesses said. The building was then destroyed by a bomb planted in a tunnel underneath it, said Ali Qaisi, a presidential guard spokesman.

Security forces later said they lost control of the town.

"Khan Younis is finished, but we are still holding on in Rafah," said Ziad Sarafandi, a senior security official. Soon after, Hamas militants blew up a second security building near Rafah after a long gunbattle and other battles raged in the town, said Khaldi, the senior police official.

"They are shooting at anyone and everyone who is Fatah," said Youssef Abu Siyam, a Preventive Security officer in Rafah.

Hamas and Fatah have waged a sporadic power struggle since Hamas won parliament elections last year, ending four decades of Fatah rule. But the battles have worsened in recent days as Hamas began a systematic assault on security forces to take over Gaza.

The fighting spilled into the Fatah-dominated West Bank. Hamas and Fatah gunmen exchanged fire in the city of Nablus and a nearby refugee camp after Fatah gunmen tried to storm a pro-Hamas TV production company. Hamas said 12 people of its fighters were wounded.

On Wednesday, Abbas spoke by phone with the Damascus-based Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal to try to stop the crisis, said Abbas aide Nimr Hamad.

"This is madness, the madness that is going on in Gaza now," Abbas told reporters.

The UN Relief and Works Agency, which provides aid to Palestinian refugees, said it would curtail its operations after two of its Palestinian workers were killed by crossfire. "We are scaling back, we are not pulling back," said the agency's Gaza director, John Ging.

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri, said the clashes could have been avoided if Abbas had given the Hamas-led Cabinet control over the security forces, which he blamed for a wave of kidnappings, torture and violence in Gaza.

3)Beirut blast kills anti-Syrian lawmaker
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
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A vocal anti-Syrian lawmaker and at least nine other people were killed when a bomb ripped through his car on Beirut's popular sea-front Wednesday in the latest assassination of a Lebanese opponent of Damascus, a heavy new blow to the stability of this conflict-torn nation.

The blast came days after the government began work putting together an international tribunal ordered by the United Nations to try suspects in the previous killings, a step strongly opposed by Syria and its allies in Lebanon.

The slain lawmaker, Walid Eido, was a prominent supporter of the tribunal. He is the seventh anti-Syrian figure killed in the past two years, starting with the February 2005 death of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in a massive Beirut suicide car bombing. Many Lebanese have accused Syria of being behind the slayings, a claim Damascus denies.

Eido's supporters quickly blamed Syria in Wednesday's assassination. Hariri's son, Saad Hariri, the leader of the anti-Syrian bloc in parliament, indirectly accused Damascus, saying "agencies of evil" seeking "Lebanon's submission" carried out the blast.

Syria controlled Lebanon for 29 years until it was forced out following Hariri's assassination, and its Lebanese opponents believe it is seeking to regain domination by throwing the country into chaos.

The slaying was likely to further enflame Lebanon's bitter power struggle between the Western-backed government and its Syrian-backed opponents, led by the Hezbollah militant group - which many fear could push the polarized nation with a fragile balance of ethnic and religious groups into a new civil war.

The two sides battled in deadly street riots earlier this year, and many Lebanese have been dreading the potential that any new attack could spark another round of violence.

Wednesday's blast also came as Lebanon is dealing with a separate conflict that threatens to spiral out of control: a nearly four-week battle with al-Qaida-inspired militants barricaded inside a northern Palestinian refugee camp. More than 140 people have been killed in the Lebanese army's siege of the Nahr el-Bared camp.

The Bush administration - a top ally of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora - condemned Wednesday's bombing.

"We stand with the people of Lebanon and Prime Minister Saniora's government as they battle extremists who are trying to derail Lebanon's march to peace, prosperity and a lasting democracy," Gordon Johndroe, the National Security Council spokesman, said in Washington.

Asked if Washington saw Syria's hand in the attack, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said, "I can't tell you at this point, but very clearly this is the work of those who intend or want to undermine Lebanese democracy."

The bomb ripped through Eido's black Mercedes just before 6 p.m. on a narrow side street off the Beirut Corniche in Manara, a mainly Sunni Muslim sector of the capital where the 65-year-old Eido often came in the afternoons to play cards with friends. The palm tree-lined boulevard along the Mediterranean shoreline is a favorite among Beirutis for evening strolls.

The explosion gutted Eido's car and left others nearby in flames, shattering windows in nearby apartments and strewing the street with rubble. Body parts were thrown onto a soccer field in a neighboring sporting club, and the ferris wheel of a nearby amusement park towered over the carnage.

Eido's 35-year-old son, two bodyguards and six passers-by were also killed in the explosion, security officials said. A woman, screaming and covered in blood, was pulled away from the carnage by residents who rushed to help.

In Eido's home neighborhood Aisha Bakkar, a small number of his supporters burned car tires and blocked a street. "Syria is after us," one shouted to local TV cameras. Troops intervened to prevent the protest from getting out of control.

The Lebanese military and police had already imposed heavy security measures around Beirut for weeks - in reaction to a series of bomb blasts that have hit the capital since the Nahr el-Bared fighting began. Those explosions killed two people, but their perpetrators remain unknown, yet another layer of instability rattling the country.

Random army and police checkpoints have been set up around the city searching cars, and some major politicians have barricaded themselves in their homes behind heavy security.

Syria's top allies in Lebanon, President Emile Lahoud and the parliament speaker Nabih Berri, condemned Wednesday's bomb blast. Hezbollah called it part of a "cycle of roaming terrorism targeting Lebanon and its stability" and urged national unity to confront it.

But Saad Hariri all but openly put the blame on Syria. In a televised speech, he called for Arab nations and the international community to boycott the "terrorist regime that is attacking Lebanon."

He also called for Lebanese to turn out en masse for funerals of Eido and the other victims appeared in a show of strength for the government's supporters against its pro-Syrian supporters. "Tomorrow Beirut will see off her son, and participation should befit the level of the martyrdom," he said.

The issue of the international tribunal has sharply divided Lebanon. The UN called for its creation months ago to try suspects in Rafik Hariri's assassination and in other killings if they proved linked. But Hezbollah and its allies blocked Lebanese approval for the tribunal, preventing parliament from meeting for months to vote on the measure.

At the same time, Hezbollah has led a constant sit-in protest in downtown Beirut demanding the ouster of Saniora's government and the creation of a national unity Cabinet giving Hezbollah and its allies more power.

With the government paralyzed, Saniora and his supporters asked the UN to impose the court's creation. Eido was among 70 pro-government lawmakers who signed a petition urging UN action. The Security Council did so with a May 30 resolution, bringing denunciations from Hezbollah and its allies. Syria has said it will not cooperate with the court.