%20(1)%20(4)%20(1).jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
My personal view of the state of America can best be summarized by the 3 D's of US Destruction:
Disastrous Government
Demographics (changes in population)
Debt (accumulated and projected)
Here is the article. Janis
Is the sun setting?
Men, like nations, think they’re eternal.
What man in his 20s or 30s doesn’t believe, at least subconsciously, that he’ll live forever? In the springtime of youth, an endless summer beckons. As you pass 70, it’s harder to hide from reality.
Nations also have seasons: Imagine a Roman of the 2nd century contemplating an empire that stretched from Britain to the Near East, thinking: This will endure forever…. Forever was about 500 years, give or take.
France was pivotal in the 17th and 18th centuries; now the land of Charles Martel is on its way to becoming part of the Muslim ummah.
In the 19th and early 20th centuries, the sun never set on the British empire; now Albion exists in perpetual twilight. Its 95-year-old sovereign is a fitting symbol for a nation in terminal decline.
In the 1980s, Japan seemed poised to buy the world. Business schools taught Japanese management techniques. Today, its birth rate is so low and its population aging so rapidly that an industry has sprung up to remove the remains of elderly Japanese who die alone.
I was born in 1942, almost at the midpoint of the 20th century – the American century. America’s prestige and influence were never greater. Thanks to the ‘Greatest Generation,’ we won a World War fought throughout most of Europe, Asia, and the Pacific. We reduced Germany to rubble and put the rising sun to bed. It set the stage for almost half a century of unprecedented peace and prosperity.
We stopped the spread of communism in Europe and Asia. We fought international terrorism. We rebuilt our enemies and lavished foreign aid on much of the world. We built skyscrapers and rockets to the moon. We conquered Polio and now COVID. We explored the mysteries of the Universe and the wonders of DNA… the blueprint of life.
But where is the glory that once was Rome? America has moved from a relatively free economy toward socialism – which has worked so well NOWHERE in the world.
We’ve gone from a democratic republican government guided by a constitution to a regime of revolving elites. We have less freedom with each passing year. As a signpost to the coming reign of terror, the cancel culture is everywhere. We’ve traded the American Revolution for the Cultural Revolution.
The pathetic creature in the White House is an empty vessel filled by his handlers. At the G-7 Summit, ‘Dr (Ph.D.). Jill’ had to lead him like a child. In 1961, when we were young and vigorous, our leaders were, too. Now a feeble nation is technically led by the oldest man to ever serve in the presidency.
We can’t defend our borders, our history (including monuments to past greatness), or our streets. Our cities have become anarchist playgrounds. We are a nation of dependents, mendicants, and misplaced charity. Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegal aliens are put up in hotels.
The president of the United States can’t even quote the beginning of the Declaration of Independence (‘You know — The Thing’) correctly. Ivy League graduates routinely fail history tests that 5th graders could pass a generation ago. Crime rates soar and we blame the 2nd. Amendment and slash police budgets.
Our culture is certifiably insane. Men who think they’re women. People who fight racism by seeking to convince members of one race that they’re inherently evil, and others that they are perpetual victims. A psychiatrist lecturing at Yale said she fantasizes about ‘unloading a revolver into the head of any white person.’
Our national debt is so high that we can no longer even pretend that we will repay it one day. It’s a $32-trillion monument to our improvidence and refusal to confront reality. Our ‘entertainment’ is sadistic, nihilistic, and as enduring as a candy wrapper thrown in the trash. Our music is a noise that spans the spectrum from annoying to repulsive.
Patriotism is called an "insurrection", treason is celebrated, and perversion sanctified. A man in blue gets less respect than a man in a dress. We’re asking soldiers to fight for a nation our leaders no longer believe in.
How do nations slip from greatness to obscurity?
• Fighting endless wars they can’t or won’t win.
• Accumulating massive debt far beyond their ability to repay.
• Refusing to guard their borders, allowing the nation to be inundated by an alien horde.
• Surrendering control of their cities to mob rule.
• Allowing indoctrination of the young.
• Moving from a republican form of government to an oligarchy.
• Losing national identity.
• Indulging indolence.
• Abandoning faith and family – the bulwarks of social order.
In America, every one of these symptoms is pronounced, indicating an advanced stage of the disease.
Even if the cause seems hopeless, do we not have an obligation to those who sacrificed so much to give us what we had? I’m surrounded by ghosts urging me on, the Union soldiers who held Cemetery Ridge at Gettysburg, the battered bastards of Bastogne, those who served in the cold hell of Korea, the guys who went to the jungles of Southeast Asia and came home to be reviled and neglected.
This is the nation that took in my immigrant grandparents, whose uniform my father and most of my uncles wore in the Second World War. The nation whose uniform I wore in Viet Nam. I don’t want to imagine a world without America, even though it becomes increasingly likely.
During Britain’s darkest hour, when its professional army was trapped at Dunkirk and a German invasion seemed imminent, Churchill reminded his countrymen, ‘Nations that go down fighting rise again, and those that surrender tamely are finished.’
The same might be said of causes. If we let America slip through our fingers if we lose without a fight, what will posterity say of us?
While the prognosis is far from good, only God knows if America’s day in the sun is over.”
The Israeli military says it has carried out more than 400 airstrikes targeting Iran and its allies
Dion Nissenbaum
TEL AVIV—The Israeli military says it has carried out more than 400 airstrikes in Syria and other parts of the Middle East since 2017 as part of a wide-ranging campaign targeting Iran and its allies, offering its fullest picture yet of its undeclared war with Tehran.
Israeli leaders refer to the campaign as the “war between the wars,” which they say is aimed at deterring Iran and weakening Tehran’s ability to hit Israel in the event of an open war between the two regional adversaries.
Israel’s airstrike campaign in Syria has hampered Iran’s military ambitions, military analysts say, but it has also pushed the conflict into other arenas, with both countries now battling at sea, in Iran, and above Israel’s skies.
Then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2018 held up what he said was a piece of an Iranian drone shot down in Israeli airspace.Photo: lennart preiss/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
“It’s not 100% success,” said Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin, who retired last week as head of Israel’s air force, where he served as architect of the campaign. “But without our activity, the situation here might be much more negative.”
Among the targets hit by Israel: Russian-supplied air-defense systems, drone bases operated by Iranian military advisers, and precision-guided missile systems bound for Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon.
The strikes have also killed more than 300 people, including Iranian military commanders, Syrian soldiers, militants backed by Tehran and at least three civilians, according to open-source reporting by Stephane Cohen of NorthStar Security Analysis, an Israel-based consulting firm.
The Israel campaign started with a narrow focus in Syria on Iranian arms shipments bound for Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon. Over time, it expanded to target Iran-backed fighters in Syria and then began directly striking Iranian military positions in Syria.
The campaign has resulted in Iran’s forces largely retreating from positions near the Israeli border to safer spots in eastern Syria, said Carmit Valensi, a research fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. “It is an effective strategy, but insufficient to deal with Iran’s full-fledged entrenchment and the threats it possesses,” she said.
Iran maintains broad influence in Syria, retains its clout with the country’s leadership, and continues to provide Hezbollah with sophisticated missile systems capable of hitting Israel with increasing accuracy, military analysts said.
Iranian and Syrian officials dismissed the air campaign’s effectiveness.
“Out of 20 or 25 strikes, only two typically destroy their targets,” said an Iranian official close to the country’s security services. The official said Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is responding in-kind to Israeli strikes.
“The Guards have drawn a red line,” the official said. “If you attack us, we will retaliate, an eye for an eye.”
A Syrian government adviser said the Israeli strikes hadn’t significantly dented Iran’s military influence in Syria. The Iranians “are strengthening their presence” across the country, he said. “It is quite difficult to undermine their position.”
In a series of interviews with The Wall Street Journal, Gen. Norkin and other Israeli military officials offered the most far-reaching detail to date of their strategy against Iran.
At the Israeli military headquarters in Tel Aviv, Gen. Norkin showed a map of Syria dotted with hundreds of small orange symbols, each one, he said, marking an Israeli strike against Iran and its allies. Parts of Syria were completely obscured by the orange icons.
The strikes stretched across the country, with a central focus around Damascus and near Syria’s border with Israel. In all, the Israeli military said, it had carried out more than 400 airstrikes as part of its “between the wars” campaign, with most hitting targets in Syria. Israel says it has also hit a smaller number of targets in Lebanon and Iraq.
“When I got this position, I never dreamed that we would act like this,” Gen. Norkin said.
Israel’s campaign against Iran in Syria—long an open secret—has become a matter of public debate in Israel amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Israel has an understanding with Moscow, another key backer of the Syrian government, that Russia won’t interfere with Israel’s airstrikes in Syria.
The dynamic has contributed to Israel’s limited support for Ukraine following Russia’s invasion.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Israel for not providing Kyiv with weapons to fight Russian forces, but Israeli leaders worry that doing so would anger Moscow and jeopardize their ability to easily target Iran assets in Syria.
Israel and Russia use a hotline to avoid Russian casualties from Israeli airstrikes in Syria. Israeli officials said they have used the line to warn Russia before targeting military bases in Syria when Russian forces work with Iranians.
For years, Israel didn’t acknowledge most of the attacks in Syria. In 2018, Israeli leaders offered their first confirmation that they were carrying out a wide-ranging campaign when they said Israel had carried out 200 airstrikes in Syria in 18 months.
In 2018, Israel said it hit an Iranian drone hangar at a Syrian military base after shooting down an Iranian drone that flew into Israel. The following year, Israel said it hit Iranian weapons warehouses in Damascus.
Last year, Syria accused Israel of carrying out a series of strikes that killed 57 Syrian soldiers and pro-Iranian fighters. Last month, Iran accused Israel of a strike in Syria that killed two Revolutionary Guard officers. Iran vowed to exact revenge.
Retired Gen. Assaf Orion, who once oversaw planning for the Israeli military, said Israel’s campaign had set back Iran’s ability to retaliate against Israel. But the strategy has created other risks for Israel.
“With several exchanges of blows between Israel and Iran becoming direct and open—at sea, drone and missile attacks—the risk for escalation also grows,” he said.
The Iran-Israel shadow war is shifting into a new phase with more reliance on drones.
Last year, the Israeli military said, Iran launched drones from its own military bases bearing small arms bound for Palestinian fighters in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, eschewing its usual strategy of having proxies in neighboring countries target Israel. Israel kept the details secret for 14 months, a sign of how sensitive the shadow war is for regional leaders.
Israel has also used small quadcopter drones to carry out strikes inside Iran, according to people familiar with the covert campaign.
The Israeli military provided the Journal with access to debris from what officials said were three Iranian drones that Israel shot down.
Israeli military experts estimate that the largest drone, with a 23-foot wingspan, can fly more than 1,200 miles. An Israeli pilot shot it down while flying an advanced F-35 jet fighter last year. It was one of two launched from Iran, more than 1,000 miles from Israel’s border, according to the Israeli military.
An analysis done for the Journal by Red Six Solutions, a private consulting firm, concluded that the drone was an Iranian version of the U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel that Iran brought down in 2011.
Wreckage of a drone the Israeli military said it shot down in May 2021 after it entered Israel from Iraq.Photo: Dion Nissenbaum/The Wall Street Journal
Red Six identified the engine of the second downed drone as a Chinese-made model that was used frequently by fighters in Yemen, Iraq and Syria whom the U.S. says Iran supplies. A similar drone, called a Samad, was used to hit a U.S. base in Erbil, Iraq, last April, the company said.
The Iranian drone threat has become a top concern for Israeli leaders, who publicly released satellite images of Iranian drone bases last November and warned Tehran that Israel wouldn’t tolerate expansion of the program.
“Sometimes the use of force, and a demonstration of it, is able to prevent the need for a stronger use of force,” Defense Minister Benny Gantz said at the time.
Satellite imagery released in February revealed damage to a drone base in the western Iranian province of Kermanshah, which Israel’s Haaretz newspaper said was targeted by an Israeli drone attack.
Four weeks later, Iran launched a barrage of missiles at a compound in Erbil, Iraq, that Tehran said was used by Israeli spies to carry out the attack on its drone operations.
Iraqi officials dismissed the Iranian accusations as misguided, but the attack sent a distinct message to Israel and highlighted the risks of escalating conflict.
The evolving war extends to the sea, where clandestine Israeli teams have attacked ships carrying Iranian oil, triggering similar attacks from Iran targeting a variety of ships in the Gulf of Oman, the Journal has reported.
Israel has also carried out a series of attacks in recent years that have hit Iran’s nuclear and military programs, according to people familiar with the campaign. Iran accused Israel of killing one of its top nuclear scientists in 2020 and carrying out an attack on its underground nuclear program at Natanz in 2021.
Gen. Norkin said Israel’s campaign would continue as long as Iran remains a threat.
“If you can push [open] war into the future, we achieve a lot,” he said.
Benoit Faucon and Aresu Eqbali contributed to this article.
Write to Dion Nissenbaum at dion.nissenbaum@wsj.com
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
No, Secretary Blinken, Palestinian Terror is Not ‘Senseless’
It may be for you, but it’s not for the terrorists. They think their terror has a purpose. If you despise Jews and think they don’t belong in the Middle East, killing them gives you purpose. If it makes you sick to see Jews you hate having fun in a cool city like Tel Aviv, killing them gives you purpose. And if you fall for the propaganda from your corrupt leaders that Jews will soon take over your holy Temple Mount in Jerusalem, killing Jews is anything but senseless.
In spreading the propaganda of Jews as foreigners and land thieves, Palestinian leaders know that nothing fires up the masses like Jerusalem, Israel’s biblical heartbeat.
“We welcome every drop of blood spilled in Jerusalem. This is pure blood, clean blood, blood on its way to Allah. With the help of Allah, every martyr will be in heaven, and every wounded will get his reward.”
Those fighting words were uttered on Sept. 26, 2015 by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, whom many consider Israel’s “peace partner.”
Two weeks later, on Oct. 1, Palestinian terrorists murdered an Israeli couple, Eitam and Naama Henkin, in cold blood in front of their four children, who ranged in age from 9 years old to 4 months.
Did these terrorists believe the murders were senseless? I doubt it.
The fundamental problem with characterizing terror as senseless is that it lets you off the hook. By depersonalizing the violence, by ignoring its root, you turn it into a terrible but generic crime where everyone is treated the same.
But Palestinian terror against Israelis is no generic crime. It is intentional violence rooted in a deep, singular hatred. This truth may make sophisticated diplomats like Secretary Blinken uncomfortable, but that won’t make it go away. Until Western leaders have the courage to connect Palestinian terror to the anti-Jewish and anti-Zionist propaganda that emanates from every nook and cranny of Palestinian society, peace and reconciliation will remain delusional pipe dreams.
If the United States is serious, in other words, about “standing resolutely” against Palestinian terror, it will have to connect the dots of terror and Jew-hatred.
Until then, we’ll be left with empty reactions like, “This has to stop!” That tweet came from US Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides, who added after the Tel Aviv attacks that he was “horrified to see another cowardly terror attack on innocent civilians.”
I can assure you, Mr. Nides, that the large crowds in Gaza and the West Bank who celebrated the Tel Aviv attacks did not consider the terrorist a coward, and they certainly didn’t see the murders as “senseless.”
It is the treating of intentional terror as senseless that is really senseless.
David Suissa is editor-in-chief and publisher of Tribe Media Corp, and “Jewish Journal.” He can be reached at davids@jewishjournal.com.
This article was first published by the Jewish Journal.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
NJ Man Charged With Attempted Murder After Antisemitic Stabbing, Hit-and-Runs
Dion Marsh, charged with a string of attacks on Jews in Lakewood, NJ. Photo: Lakewood Police Department
A New Jersey man was charged with attempted murder and bias intimidation on Saturday after a violently antisemitic crime spree that left four Jewish victims injured, including two critically.
27-year-old Dion Marsh was charged Friday after a string of incidents around Lakewood, NJ, that began at about 1 p.m., when he assaulted a driver and stole his car, the Lakewood Police Department said. At around 6 p.m., Marsh hit another man with the vehicle, who was left in stable condition.
Before 7.p.m, Marsh then stabbed a third man in the chest, and at about 9 p.m. struck another pedestrian with his car. Both victims were in critical but stable condition on Saturday.
All four of the victims were Orthodox Jews, according to reports in the local Lakewood Alerts and Lakewood Scoop news sites.
“Our investigation reveals that these criminal acts were committed throughout the day yesterday into the early evening and that Marsh was acting alone and not in concert with anyone else,” Ocean County Prosecutor Bradley Billhimer said in a statement Saturday.
Marsh was charged with three counts of attempted murder and bias intimidation, and with carjacking and weapons charges.
The Anti-Defamation League said it was “saddened and outraged” by the series of attacks, emphasizing that Marsh made antisemitic remarks upon his arrest.
“I am personally horrified at the cruelty with which the suspect allegedly conducted himself,” said Scott Richman, ADL NY/NJ Regional Director. “More needs to be done proactively to prevent violence against the Jewish community, and in particular visibly identifiable Jews in Ocean County and across our region.”
“Jews should not be afraid to freely go about their business without living in fear that they will be targeted for violence,” Richman continued.
The FBI said it was in contact with local authorities, and stood prepared to investigate if information of a potential federal violation comes to light.
“The safety of our communities, and notably our communities of faith, is not only a paramount concern but among my highest priorities,” New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said Saturday. “We will continue to partner with all who share this commitment so no resident ever needs to live in fear.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Altimeter for Powell’s Soft Landing
Rate hikes alone risk an economic crash. The key is to stabilize the growth of the broad money supply.
By John Greenwood and Steve H. Hanke
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell promised last month that a “soft landing,” one with neither a recession nor high unemployment, is in the works. He cited three historic tightening cycles, 1965, 1984 and 1994, when soft landings occurred.
With the glaring exception of inflation, the U.S. economy is performing well. The labor market is tight, incomes are growing, and household balance sheets are strong. Corporate inventories are low while margins are near record levels. But inflation is at a 40-year high, almost four times the Fed’s target of 2%. The Fed has dropped its “transitory inflation” rhetoric and has turned hawkish. As the Fed addresses inflation, what conditions must prevail to ensure a soft landing?
Rate hikes, the Fed’s favorite monetary policy instrument, are a fundamentally unreliable indicator of the stance of monetary policy. Increases in interest rates may or may not be associated with reductions in the rate of growth in the money supply and nominal spending. The magnitude of the interest-rate effect on the money supply and nominal spending is highly variable.
If the Fed wants a soft landing, its focus must be on the rate of growth in the money supply, broadly measured. The ratio of broad money to nominal spending, the inverse of income velocity, typically has a stable trend. Therefore, the amount of new money created gives a reasonable estimate of new purchasing power injected into the economy. The growth in the money supply is the “altimeter” that any central bank pilot needs on the dashboard to ensure a soft landing.
Let’s look at Mr. Powell’s examples. The Fed tightened monetary policy by increasing the federal-funds rate significantly in 1965 (from 3.4% to 5.8%), 1984 (9.6% to 11.6%) and 1994-95 (3% to 6%) without precipitating a recession. In each of these episodes, the unemployment rate fell—respectively from 5.1% to 3.6%, 7.8% to 7.5%, and 6.5% to 5.8%. The Fed was able to land softly in each of these three tightening cycles because the growth in the money supply was maintained at an adequate rate even while the Fed hiked the fed-funds rate. That growth neutralized the increases in the fed-funds rate.
Mr. Powell omitted to mention tightening cycles in which the economy crashed, including the recessions of 1973-75, 1990-91 and 2001. All three were precipitated by Fed tightening cycles. The fed funds rate jumped from 5.5% to 9.5% in early 1973, 6.5% to 9.75% in 1988-89, and 4.75% to 6.5% in 1999-2000. What separated the soft landings from these crash landings was that the Fed ignored its money-supply altimeter. The growth of the money supply was neglected and plummeted to rates below what would have allowed the Fed to meet an “inflation target.” Shortly after, the economy crashed into a recession.
Where do these lessons leave Mr. Powell? The first thing he has to do is put the money-supply altimeter on his dashboard. Second, he has to watch changes in that altimeter carefully as he raises the fed-funds rate and shrinks the Fed’s balance sheet. If the rate of monetary growth stays too high, inflation will never come back to Earth, regardless of his rate hikes and balance-sheet shrinkage. But if it falls too far, the economy will crash.
What is the adequate rate of growth for the money supply that would eventually hit the Fed’s inflation target of 2%? It’s the “golden growth” rate of around 6%. By taking the growth rate in M2 down from its current level of 11%, Mr. Powell can bring inflation down and land softly.
Mr. Greenwood is a fellow at the Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health and the Study of Business Enterprise. Mr. Hanke is a professor of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University
+++++++++++++++++
Recession Risk Is Rising, Economists Say
Forecasters raise probability of economic contraction in next 12 months to 28% as Fed tightens to beat back inflation
By Gwynn Guilford and Anthony DeBarros
Economists see a growing risk of recession as the relentlessly strong U.S. economy whips up inflation, likely bringing a heavy-handed response from the Federal Reserve.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month on average put the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28%, up from 18% in January and just 13% a year ago.
“Risk of a recession is rising due to the series of supply shocks cascading throughout the economy as the Fed lifts rates to address inflation,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP.
Economists slashed their forecast for growth this year. On average they see inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rising 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, down a full percentage point from the average forecast six months ago, though still higher than the 2.2% average annual growth rate in the decade before the pandemic.
The looming risk of a downturn alongside alarmingly high inflation, which hit 7.9% in February, captures the Fed’s balancing act: It is attempting to cool the economy enough to bring down inflation, but not so much that it spurs a pullback in spending and rising unemployment.
The latest recession probability is slightly lower than the last expansion’s peak of 34.8% in September 2019. At the time, growth had slowed in response to Fed rate increases the prior year and a trade war between the U.S. and China. Months earlier, it had kicked off its first rate-cutting cycle since 2008.
Whether a recession would have followed then, absent the pandemic, can’t be known. Economists’ recession probability reached the same level in August 2007, after which a recession did follow. But when it reached a similar level in August 2011, the economy kept growing.
Last month, the central bank lifted its benchmark rate a quarter-point and penciled in six more increases by year’s end, the most aggressive pace in more than 15 years. Some 84% of economists surveyed said they expect the Fed to raise rates by a half-point in early May. More than 57% see two or more such increases through the end of 2022.
The median economist in the survey projected that the Fed will take the federal funds rate’s midpoint range to 2.125% by the end of 2022, and then to 2.875% by December 2023—close to the Fed’s own projections.
But they also expect inflation to remain stubbornly high—predicting, on average, a 7.5% rate in June 2022, edging down to a still-uncomfortable 5.5% by December. Respondents estimate it will fall back to 2.9% by late 2023, within striking distance of the Fed’s 2% target.
High inflation remains the primary economic risk; it erodes spending power and consumer confidence and invites the Fed to tighten. Economists differ on the biggest source of inflationary risk. One-third cited commodity, food and gas prices, while 15% pinpointed Russia’s war with Ukraine.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
Do you think the Fed will be able to bring down inflation without causing a recession? Why or why not? Join the conversation below.
In this camp, Amy Crews Cutts, of AC Cutts & Associates LLC, expects higher, more persistent inflation than her peers, largely because its main drivers are commodity prices, exacerbated by war in Ukraine. But though monetary policy has little impact on those prices, she said, the distressing level of overall inflation presses the Fed to act.
“To be seen not fighting it is politically unwinnable. But the only policy response the Fed has is to tighten,” said Ms. Cutts, who puts the chance of a recession in the next 12 months at 70%. “Fed actions to curb inflation will lead to a recession sooner rather than later.”
Twenty-seven percent of respondents pointed to wage growth or a tight labor market as the biggest inflationary threat.
“The Ukraine crisis will cause another boost to inflation in the near term, but the wage-price spiral that has started already is a more permanent threat to price stability,” said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank. In such a spiral, workers win higher wages to keep up with rising prices, and then those higher wages prompt firms to raise prices further. Mr. Marey said that because that process is already under way, the Fed will have to raise rates enough to induce a recession to break the inflation dynamic.
Robert Fry, of Robert Fry Economics LLC, puts the chance of a contraction in the next 12 months at a mere 15%, but raises that to well over 50% within the coming 24 months, and currently expects a recession lasting three quarters to begin in the final quarter of 2023.
“The problem is really excess demand, resulting from last year’s fiscal and monetary policies,” he said. “The longer the Fed waits to get inflation under control, the deeper the recession will be.”
The last time inflation was this high, the Federal Reserve raised rates so much that it put the U.S. into a recession. Will we see a repeat of that today? WSJ’s Dion Rabouin breaks down why the Fed’s next steps are crucial. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
While recognizing the rising risk of a downturn, a majority of economists—63%—still think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation without triggering a recession—what economists call a “soft landing.” Many said the economy is well positioned to withstand tightening given unemployment near record lows, steadily rising incomes and relatively subdued levels of consumer debt.
“There is still a lot of pent-up demand and momentum in the economy,” said Leo Feler, a senior economist at the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles. “Higher interest rates may cut growth from about 4-5% to about 2-3% this year, so we’ll see a significant slowdown in growth, but a recession seems unlikely at this time.”
The Wall Street Journal survey of 65 business, academic and financial forecasters was conducted April 1-5. Not all participants responded to every question.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Whiteness of Wokeness
Most people advocating for radical social change on behalf of people of color are not themselves people of color. How do you explain that? Wilfred Reilly, professor of political science at Kentucky State University, has some answers.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Debasement of our Professional and Political Classes
By Victor Davis Hanson
Leftist professionals in politics, government, and private enterprise debased themselves for short-term political gain, or in furor at their bogeyman Trump, or in anger at the unwashed.
The left-wing professional and political classes bequeathed a number of new protocols during the Trump derangement years. And it will be interesting to watch whether the Republicans abide by them in November should they take back the House and perhaps the Senate—and the presidency in 2024 as well.
Will they follow the New Testament’s turn-the-other-cheek forbearance, or go for Old Testament style eye-for-an-eye retribution?
What Are the New Rules?
Will Republican magnanimity suffice to shame the Democrats to be more professional in the future? Or will tit-for-tat deterrent reciprocity alone ensure a return to norms? Specifically, will Biden be impeached Trump-style, after losing the House in November? Say, to give just one possible example, for deliberately not enforcing and, indeed, undermining U.S. immigration law?
Will Speaker Kevin McCarthy, in Pelosi-fashion, start yanking troublesome radical Democrats off House committees?
Will a conservative Robert Mueller-like “wise man” head a $40 million, 22 month-long special counsel investigation of the Biden-family influence-selling syndicate—arrayed with a “dream-team,” “all-star,” and “hunter-killer” right-wing lawyers to ferret out “Big Guy” and “Mr. Ten Percent” quid pro quo profiteering?
Would a Republican-led House set up a special committee to investigate the racketeering and “conspiracies” across state lines that led to a near “coup” and “insurrection” marked by “the riots of 2020?” Would such watchdogs offer up criminal referrals for all those responsible for attacking a federal courthouse and torching a police precinct or for setting an historic church afire? Or causing $2 billion of damage, over 30 deaths, and 1,500 law enforcement officer injuries—while carving out illegal no-go zones in major downtowns?
Given the need for “accountability,” the “threats to democracy,” and a need for “transparency,” would another congressional committee investigate the Afghanistan fiasco of summer 2021? Will it learn who was lying about the disaster—Joe Biden or the Joint Chiefs—and how and why such a travesty occurred?
Would a rebooted January 6 committee reconvene under new auspices—with Democratic members limited to those selected by a new Speaker McCarthy—to revisit the lethal shooting of Ashli Babbitt, to review thousands of hours of released surveillance video, to subpoena all email communications between the previous congressional leadership and the Capitol police, to demand the lists of all the FBI informants in the crowd, and to interrogate the sadistic jailers and overzealous prosecutors who have created America’s first class of political prisoners subjected to punishment without trial? Such a multifaceted legal inquiry would eat up most of Biden’s final two years in office. As accomplished leakers, Republicans then would also supply “bombshells” and “walls or closing in” special news alerts on cable TV, the fuel of supposedly “imminent” and “impending” indictments, based on special counsel leaks to conservative media.
Following the Democratic cue, should the Republican-majority Senate consider ending the “disruptive” and “anti-democratic” filibuster? Should there be a national voting law rammed through the Congress, overriding state protocols, and demanding that all national election balloting must require a photo ID?
Will Speaker McCarthy, Pelosi-style, in furor at more of Joe Biden’s chronic lies, tear up the president’s State of the Union address on national television?
A Permanently Politicized Bureaucracy?
Will the new Washington apparat likewise adhere to the Democratic Party’s new precedents?
Perhaps a newly appointed chairman of the Joint Chiefs can reassure a Republican majority that its primary mission is not battle readiness—and certainly not climate change or “white rage”— but rather ferreting out service personnel with known ties to radical groups like BLM or Antifa or other “subversive” and “racist” organizations?
Will a conservative Lois Lerner emerge from the IRS shadows to start slow-walking nonprofit-status applications from left-wing organizations on the eve of a presidential election?
Will the FBI become a Republican retrieval service to hunt down and keep inert embarrassing lost laptops, diaries, and hard drives of absent-minded conservative grandees?
In the middle of a campaign, will the CIA Director believe it is his duty to inform the senior Republican leaders in the Senate that he has good “information” that leftists are intriguing with foreign governments to warp the election?
The Lettered Classes
And what of our corporate and professional classes?
Should conservative zillionaires pool their resources and, Zuckerberg-style, select key precincts in the next general election, hire armies of activists, and then absorb and supersede the work of state or county registrars? Only that way, could they ensure the “right” people vote and their “correct” ballots were accurately counted?
Should conservatives start rounding up “professionals,” “scientists,” and “scholars” to express their superior morality and erudition in pursuit of political agendas?
Certainly, a recent trend has been a spate of letters of “conscience” and “statements of concern” signed by revolving-door government, academic, and corporate grandees who pose as disinterested experts to mold public opinion.
When we read such letters of principle—characterized by shared and collective outrage by assorted professionals, replete with letters and/or titles after their name—beware!
Do we remember the recent “stellar” cast of Nobel-Prize winning and near-Nobel laureates who admonished us that Biden’s massive deficit spending programs would never lead to inflation?
In circular fashion, Biden solicited and then cited this “blue-chip” group of experts led by Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz. Stiglitz warned the hoi polloi not to worry about printing trillions of dollars at the very moment pent-up demand from the COVID lockdowns was surging, when for millions the government kept issuing checks that made staying home more lucrative than working, when interest rates were at near zero, and when the national debt was cresting at $30 trillion.
The distinguished economists promised us that if we just followed the Biden lead, then inflation would actually decrease. Or as they put it, “Because this agenda invests in long-term economic capacity and will enhance the ability of more Americans to participate productively in the economy, it will ease longer-term inflationary pressure.” [emphasis added].
As inflation nears or exceeds eight percent per annum, will they write an apology or instead issue yet another letter assuring us that inflation is easing?
Do we remember the 50 “former intelligence officials” letter writers rounded up by former National Intelligence and CIA Directors James Clapper and John Brennan? (The latter two previously had confessed to lying under oath to Congress.) Yet just two weeks before the 2020 election, these revered “professionals” assured us that Hunter Biden’s laptop was not just fake but likely Russian disinformation.
Or as the shameful 50 put it in their sorta, kinda conspiratorial style, “. . . our experience makes us deeply suspicious that the Russian government played a significant role in this case.” The guidance of Brennan and Clapper alone—apart from the clear evidence that the laptop was Hunter’s—should have made all Americans “deeply suspicious” that the Biden campaign “played a significant role in this case.”
Do we remember “the over 1,000 health professionals” who in 2020 signed a letter of conscience, assuring us that:
. . . we wanted to present a narrative that prioritizes opposition to racism as vital to public health, including the epidemic response. We believe that the way forward is not to suppress protests in the name of public health but to respond to protesters demands in the name of public health, thereby addressing multiple public health crises.
So, in “follow the science fashion” we were told not just that some violations of strict masking, quarantines, and lockdowns were more equal than others, but that flagrantly ignoring health mandates entirely was, in Orwellian fashion, actually good for the health of the exempt.
Do we remember the 27 Lancet “scientists” who signed the now infamous letter reassuring us the Wuhan lab played no role in the origins in COVID? Do we also recall that all but one of these progressive humanitarians failed to disclose that they themselves had connections with Wuhan?
Leftist professionals in politics, government, and private enterprise debased themselves for short-term political gain, or in furor at their bogeyman Trump, or in anger at the unwashed. They have now set precedents, which if embraced by conservatives and applied to the Left, would be called unethical at best and fascistic at worst.
In the end, all the warped grandees accomplished was to further discredit the entire notion that those with high salaries, prestigious degrees, impressive titles, and insidious influence are somehow less likely to lie, connive, cheat, and conspire than those whom they libel and attack.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ukraine, Russia Gear Up for War’s Biggest Battles
Officials expect large-scale tank and artillery battles; it “will remind you of the Second World War,” says Ukraine’s foreign minister
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
*This is not an exhaustive listing (it could likely be well over 100) but it is accurate...a clear indication that our American cultural and educational systems are in dire need of significantly improved and greater focus on excellence.....
Biden, Putin and Xi were arguing on Who's in charge of the world?
Without any conclusion, they turned to "Narendra Modi", the Indian Prime Minister and asked him
(CEO Leadership of Global Companies)
2. Microsoft CEO is an Indian.
3. Adobe CEO is an Indian.
4. IBM CEO is an Indian
5. TWITTER CEO is an Indian
6. Net App CEO is an Indian.
7. MasterCard CEO is an Indian.
8. DBS CEO is an Indian.
9. Novartis CEO is an Indian.
10. Diageo CEO is an Indian.
11. SanDisk CEO is an Indian.
12. Harman International CEO is an Indian.
13. Micron CEO is an Indian.
14. Palo Alto Networks CEO is an Indian.
15. Reckitt Benckiser CEO is an Indian.
16. Britain's Chancellor is an Indian.
17. Britain's Home Secretary is an Indian.
18. Britain's next Prime Minister will be an Indian
19. Ireland’s last Prime Minister was an Indian....
20. Chanel CEO is an Indian.
21. Arista Networks CEO is an Indian.
22. Only Fans CEO is an Indian.
23. Pepsico CEO is an Indian.
24. Vimeo CEO is an Indian.
25. GlobalFoundries and Motorola CEO is an Indian.
26. Nokia CEO is an Indian.
27. Flex CEO is an Indian.
28. Cognizant CEO is an Indian.
29. Xerox Corporation CEO is an Indian.
30. VMware CEO is an Indian.
31. Inmarsat CEO is an Indian.
32. Deloitte CEO is an Indian.
33. Wayfair CEO is an Indian.
34. Albertsons CEO is an Indian.
35. and the American Vice President is (part)Indian. (this one should not be on this list for many reasons....)
A: Those who choose to prepare and strive for excellence.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
I remember when they called it changing of the guards now it is just another "thug day" in Russia.
Putin said to appoint new general to direct war on Ukraine
Russian president names Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, as new head of military assault, CNN reports
By TOI staff and AgenciesToday, 4:36 am
In this pool photo taken on Thursday, March 17, 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, poses with Col. Gen. Alexander Dvornikov during an awarding ceremony in Moscow's Kremlin, Russia. (Alexei Nikolsky/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed a new general to direct the war in Ukraine as the Russian military pulled its troops from the northern part of the country following a failure to take the capital Kyiv, according to a US official and a European official cited by CNN on Saturday.
The officials said Putin appointed Army Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, the commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, as theater commander of Russia’s military assault in Ukraine.
Dvornikov commanded the Russian military in Syria until Syrian forces gained the upper hand in the brutal civil war. Russia’s operations in Syria were marked by large-scale bombardments including in civilian areas, and the destruction of cities.
Moscow has taken a similar approach in Ukraine. The UK’s Ministry of Defence said in its daily briefing Saturday that Russia’s withdrawal from northern Ukraine in recent days has left “evidence of the disproportionate targeting of non-combatants including the presence of mass graves, the fatal use of hostages as human shields, and mining of civilian infrastructure.”
Russian forces have continued to use IEDs (improvised explosive devices) “to inflict casualties, lower morale, and restrict Ukrainian freedom of movement,” while also attacking infrastructure targets “with a high risk of collateral harm to civilians, including a nitrate acid tank at Rubizhne,” the ministry says in reference to a city in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region which has suffered heavy shelling this week.
At least 52 people were killed Friday in Kramatorsk, in eastern Ukraine, where a missile struck a railway station. Moscow denied responsibility for the rocket attack, which also wounded 109 people, according to the latest official count.
As Russian forces regroup in the east and south of Ukraine, local officials are urging residents to flee before it is too late.
The European official cited by CNN Saturday said it remains to be seen how effective the new appointment will be.
A view of the Mariupol theater damaged during fighting in Mariupol, in territory under the government of the Donetsk People’s Republic, eastern Ukraine, on April 4, 2022. (AP Photo/Alexei Alexandrov)
“The Russian doctrine, the Russian tactics remain pretty much as they’ve been since Afghanistan. They do things in the same old way,” the official added.
More than six weeks after the invasion began, Russia has pulled its troops from the northern part of the country, around Kyiv, and refocused on the Donbas region in the east.
Western military analysts said an arc of territory in eastern Ukraine was under Russian control, from Kharkiv — Ukraine’s second-largest city — in the north to Kherson in the south. But counterattacks are threatening Russian control of Kherson, according to the Western assessments, and Ukrainian forces are repelling Russian assaults elsewhere in the Donbas.
Ukrainian authorities have called on civilians to get out ahead of an imminent, stepped-up offensive by Russian forces in the east.
With trains not running out of Kramatorsk on Saturday, panicked residents boarded buses or looked for other ways to leave, fearing the kind of unrelenting assaults and occupations by Russian invaders that brought food shortages, demolished buildings, and death to other cities.
AND:
How Do We Deal With a Superpower Led by a War Criminal?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Pennsylvania's dramatic shift rightward is a warning sign for both parties about overreach
Click here for the full story.
Best to end on this note.
A group of professional people
posed this question
to a group of 4 to 8 year-olds ,
'What does love mean?'
The answers they got were broader, deeper,
and more profound than anyone could have ever imagined !
See what you think
'When someone loves you , the
way they say your name is different.
You just know that your name
is safe in their mouth.'
Billy - age 4
'Love is when a girl puts on perfume
and a boy puts on shaving cologne
and they go out and smell each other.'
Karl - age 5
'Love is when you go out to eat
and give somebody most of your French fries
without making them give you any of theirs.'
Chrissy - age 6
'Love is what makes you smile
when you're tired.'
Terri - age 4
'Love is when my
mommy makes coffee for my daddy and
she takes a sip before giving it to him , to
make sure the taste is OK.'
Danny - age 8
'Love is what's in the room with
you at Christmas if you stop opening presents
and just listen.'
Bobby - age 7
(Wow!)
'If you want to learn to love better ,
you should start with a friend who you hate. '
Nikka - age 6
(we need a few million more Nikka's on
this planet)
'Love is when
you tell a guy you like his shirt,
then he wears it every day.'
Noelle - age 7
'Love is like a little
old woman and a little old man who are still
friends even after they know each other so
well.'
Tommy - age 6
'During my piano recital , I was
on a stage and I was scared. I looked at all the
people watching me and saw my daddy waving and
smiling.
He was the only one doing that.
I wasn't scared anymore.'
Cindy - age 8
'My mommy loves me
more than anybody
You don't see anyone else
kissing me to sleep at night.'
Clare - age 6
'Love is when Mommy
gives Daddy the best piece of chicken.'
Elaine-age 5
'Love is when Mommy
sees Daddy smelly and sweaty and
still says he is handsomer than Robert Redford.'
Chris - age 7
'Love is when your puppy licks
your face even after you left him
alone all day.'
Mary Ann - age 4
'I know my older sister loves me
because she gives me all her old clothes
and has to go out and buy new ones.'
Lauren - age 4
'When you love somebody , your
eyelashes go up and down and little
stars come out of you.' (what an image)
Karen - age 7
'Love is when Mommy
sees Daddy on the toilet and she doesn't think
it's gross..'
Mark - age 6
'You really shouldn't say
'I love you' unless you mean it.
But if you mean it,
you should say it a lot. People forget.'
Jessica - age 8
And the final one:
The winner was a four year old child
whose next door neighbor was an
elderly gentleman who had recently lost his
wife.
Upon seeing the man cry , the
little boy went into the old
gentleman's yard , climbed onto his
lap , and just sat there.
When his
Mother asked what he had said to the
neighbor , the little boy said ,
'Nothing , I just helped him cry'
************************
No comments:
Post a Comment