Ross Rants:
The jobs report was good, but these are just people returning to work who were on the government dole all this time. The free money stopped, so they went back to work. There are still 3.5 million fewer people employed than before Jan 2020. Real wages are declining. Biden has no reason to take any credit for the increase in jobs. In fact there is some question as to what the real jobs number is as Covid has made collecting data a serious problem. It seems what is occurring in jobs is what we expected. People are using up their savings, and are finding they are now running out of savings to live on, the end of many government hand-outs, and continuing inflation. It will not be surprising to see many who retired return to work to cope with inflation since there are so many jobs available (10.5 million) and wages are up substantially. Wages rose over 5.7% as expected, which, along with $90 oil, means inflation will remain high for a while, which means the Fed may be forced to raise by 50BP sooner than my Q3 prediction. At some point, and maybe in Q3, the situation will reach a turning point where inflation is such a problem and rates on the ten year have risen to a point, where the economy is notably slowing. It appears it may be in the very early stages of slowing now. Everything is still going in the wrong direction. Energy costs, labor costs, food, and supply shortages are continuing and worsening. The stock market will remain very volatile with a bias to the downside. Then there is Ukraine.
An interesting thing has occurred. Bankruptcies are the lowest since 2006. PPP apparently worked well. The very strong economy of 2019 also meant that many companies were able to generate cash on their balance sheets and withstand the shutdown. The other critical change was the advent of fintech where the non-banks are now prolific and are very willing to provide liquidity loans to companies that could not get that from regulated banks. With rates at near zero, rescue loans have been priced at rates that make it possible for struggling companies to survive. With junk bonds at 4%-6%, the risk is mispriced. There is a huge base of capital to buy distressed debt and keep companies alive. There has also been a recognition by lenders that the pandemic was eventually going to pass, and it was better to work with borrowers than to push them into BK. It is a very different situation than in 2008. It has made a huge difference. The massive liquidity in the system has worked to save us from a major economic recession, and is what allowed a V snap back in spring 2020.
Now we know what many of us thought from early on---lockdowns did nothing good, but did enormous damage to kids, the economy, low income workers and the federal deficit leading to the inflation we now are experiencing. Another Fauci disastrous edict. Sweden never fully locked down, and the media and some governments attacked them claiming they did a terrible thing. They were the only ones who were correct. We know Fauci lied about the origins to cover up his direct involvement in the work at Wuhan. Now we know the teachers have lied for their own purposes and destroyed a generation of children, and they still try to do it again. This entire saga was a disaster for the world that did not have to be so damaging. Fauci needs to be held to account at some point. Now that the report is out, let’s see if NYC and CA lift all restrictions and mandates and apologize. Don’t hold your breath.
Whoppi took Goldberg as a stage name. She is not Jewish, nor related to anyone Jewish. Her anti-Semitic comment was simply a demonstration of her total ignorance. And she is who people listen to for her opinion??? A two week suspension is nothing compared to all of the professors and celebs who have said much less offensive things who got fired. And now the lefty MSM is standing behind her. Especially Don Lemon on CNN. I don’t hear that the social media mob rose up to demand she be fired. Why didn’t the others on the show immediately react and say that is wrong and terrible. They did not do that. It shows how anti-Semitism still exists even in the media, and how ignorant even a person who runs in a sophisticated social group can really be.
The truckers protest in Canada is a major turning point. Canadians are the nicest people and not prone to big protests. This, along with Hopkins report showing the lockdowns were ill informed and disastrous, should get Biden and Trudeau to embrace the truth and admit their errors with shutdowns and mandates. That will not happen. It shows how we were lied to. Instead they and social media are trying to shut down the truckers. They will pay a big price in the next elections. The whole lockdowns and misinformation has been one of the biggest lies in history and politicization of what should have been science. Fauci has been the one at the lead in all of this disaster which will impact the world for decades.
After the disastrous earnings of Meta, and Netflix, the market is suffering more declines. Both were very widely owned and touted by almost all analysts who pushed Meta as a buy right up to the earnings report. This is why I pay very little attention to what analysts say. Neither of those stocks were ever in my portfolio. Facebook now has real competition and real constraints on how it violates your privacy. Whatever the so called metaverse is, will not be generating replacement revenue of real magnitude for several years. In short, Facebook-META may have seen its best days. Kids are off to the latest social media platform. I stuck with the companies that I feel were well run by adults and financially solid, whose products and services are deeply embedded in society and business such that they can’t get eliminated. -APPL, MSFT, AMZN, and TMO which is essential now in the healthcare industry. There are a small number of similar companies that I feel are big, cash rich, and have top quality adult management, and a product line that is recession proof, or which is top of class. META may be widely used, but nobody needs META to function the way they need APPL, MSFT, CRM or ADBE. There is a major difference. All of these companies have adults as CEO, and a carefully thought out long term business strategy. The bad earnings reports of META and Netflix are a sign of companies whose business is really a fad, and subject to intense competition and regulation, and management that is not qualified to successfully alter strategy to make the basic product line more sustainable, and able to withstand strong competition. Netflix is a one trick pony which is now being attacked from all sides by stronger competitors. Meta is mainly social media which now has numerous competitors like Tik Toc. They now are trying to create a Metaverse. A make believe fantasy where idiots buy make believe real estate and other make believe things, and have avatars as friends. To me this is scary that people are living in a make believe life. This is not a business. It is make believe games. Like Crypto, it is valued on fantasies, only much worse. Crypto can be used to buy real things in some cases. Metaverse is pure childish fantasy. APPL and MSFT create a series of real products and services that are needed by hundreds of millions, and have a place in the world that will be hard to displace for years. CRM and ADBE are in similar positions. So my portfolio now is part cash, and a small number (14) of these types of companies that will ride out whatever is coming over the next two years, be it recession, high interest rates, regulation, or a war in Ukraine. I also own some energy companies which will do well so long as the US constrains oil production. I am in a position, and am willing to just wait it out now. There is plenty of time to wait to redeploy the cash.
Inflation is already impacting spending and is going higher. A recent survey showed that 40% of consumers deferred a major buy like a new TV, or car, due to inflation. As prices rise further, and as real wages and the value of their 401K decline, with no new government give away programs, they will cut back further. 50% of Americans have money in the stock market in some form, many in a 401K, and as house prices stop rising, the wealth effect will turn negative, and that will impact spending further. Yet into this situation, the Dems want to raise taxes and increase spending even more, which will just stoke inflation.
The ideology of the left is that the government has to control everything, and needs to take from the job creators and give to the lazy. It is the essence of victim ideology. People are not equal in terms of ability nor drive. There is inequality because some people are born smarter, just as some are born better basketball players. Some people are driven to study and work hard to succeed and become rich. Others are fine to just work in a job for a living, or to take government handouts. Many of us started with nothing and now are rich. Nobody gave us anything other than opportunity to succeed or fail. We don’t owe anyone anything in return for our success. Giving back is a voluntary thing to help others who we decide should be helped, and not being taxed to fund wasteful government welfare programs used to give money to illegals. It is not an obligation to help those who are not willing to help themselves. There is nothing better than working hard and succeeding to build a person’s self- confidence and self-esteem, and eventually more income.
If we look at the Biden cabinet we see nothing, but gross incompetence, but a lot of diversity. Becerra has no qualifications for HHS, and has had zero role in the pandemic even though this was the worst health crisis in 100 years.. Granholm does not even know how much oil the US consumes. Buttaboy took two months leave at the height of the supply crisis. Mayorkas is a disaster at Homeland Security. The head of CDC is clearly in way over her head. Austin is more interested in CRT than training for fighting wars. And then there is Kamala who is totally incompetent. And now he wants to appoint people to the Fed who are left wing ideologues who want to politicize the Fed, and a black woman to SCOTUS instead of whoever is most qualified-be they black, white, Asian, male or female. There has never been a more incompetent cabinet in modern times. This is what diversity hiring gets you. And these are the people advising a guy who is clearly not smart and whose mental faculties are in decline. It is essential that Republicans control both houses to stop this hiring of incompetence. They also need to control the Senate in case Biden becomes unable to stay in office and they need to impeach Kamala. That might seem very unrealistic, even absurd, and not achievable, but it is not impossible.
Biden issued an order that requires contractors to be union to bid on large federal funded infrastructure projects. This will delay and raise the cost of the projects. Some parts of the country do not have many, if any, union contractors for certain skill sets. It seems illegal to me, but I don’t know the law in such situations.
Biden came to NYC a day AFTER the funeral of the cop. That is all you need to know about where his interest is to do something to help cops and stop runaway crime. Instead he fell back on the old Dem line that it is all the fault of the guns, and let’s just throw money at it. Eric Adams, who surely knows better, did not correct Biden, and just mouthed the same old lines about guns and providing social services and jobs for poor kids. He even used the exact same words as DeBozzo used for the same failed policies. The local Dem party put Bragg in office as DA, and so they are responsible for the mayhem that is occurring. The Dems do not stop this because Soros gives them huge sums to support their left wing DA candidates. Now he just gave $125 million to the Dem Congressional PAC, so of course you never hear a Dem or the media attack Soros. He has them all bought, the same way the teachers unions control Biden.
Trump is handing strong election fodder to the Dems where a Trump backed Republican is running. By continuing his false claims about the election, pardoning January 6 protestors, and attacking Pence, he is making those candidates who tout him easy targets as being Trump puppets. This is how he could cost the Republicans several seats. We will see how the Trump candidates do in the primaries. Hopefully most will lose and save the party for the 22 election. The Republicans have a deep bench of very good presidential candidates, and Trump can only lose it for the party and country in 2024.
Take Back America
An interesting thing has occurred. Bankruptcies are the lowest since 2006. PPP apparently worked well. The very strong economy of 2019 also meant that many companies were able to generate cash on their balance sheets and withstand the shutdown. The other critical change was the advent of fintech where the non-banks are now prolific and are very willing to provide liquidity loans to companies that could not get that from regulated banks. With rates at near zero, rescue loans have been priced at rates that make it possible for struggling companies to survive. With junk bonds at 4%-6%, the risk is mispriced. There is a huge base of capital to buy distressed debt and keep companies alive. There has also been a recognition by lenders that the pandemic was eventually going to pass, and it was better to work with borrowers than to push them into BK. It is a very different situation than in 2008. It has made a huge difference. The massive liquidity in the system has worked to save us from a major economic recession, and is what allowed a V snap back in spring 2020.
Now we know what many of us thought from early on---lockdowns did nothing good, but did enormous damage to kids, the economy, low income workers and the federal deficit leading to the inflation we now are experiencing. Another Fauci disastrous edict. Sweden never fully locked down, and the media and some governments attacked them claiming they did a terrible thing. They were the only ones who were correct. We know Fauci lied about the origins to cover up his direct involvement in the work at Wuhan. Now we know the teachers have lied for their own purposes and destroyed a generation of children, and they still try to do it again. This entire saga was a disaster for the world that did not have to be so damaging. Fauci needs to be held to account at some point. Now that the report is out, let’s see if NYC and CA lift all restrictions and mandates and apologize. Don’t hold your breath.
Whoppi took Goldberg as a stage name. She is not Jewish, nor related to anyone Jewish. Her anti-Semitic comment was simply a demonstration of her total ignorance. And she is who people listen to for her opinion??? A two week suspension is nothing compared to all of the professors and celebs who have said much less offensive things who got fired. And now the lefty MSM is standing behind her. Especially Don Lemon on CNN. I don’t hear that the social media mob rose up to demand she be fired. Why didn’t the others on the show immediately react and say that is wrong and terrible. They did not do that. It shows how anti-Semitism still exists even in the media, and how ignorant even a person who runs in a sophisticated social group can really be.
The truckers protest in Canada is a major turning point. Canadians are the nicest people and not prone to big protests. This, along with Hopkins report showing the lockdowns were ill informed and disastrous, should get Biden and Trudeau to embrace the truth and admit their errors with shutdowns and mandates. That will not happen. It shows how we were lied to. Instead they and social media are trying to shut down the truckers. They will pay a big price in the next elections. The whole lockdowns and misinformation has been one of the biggest lies in history and politicization of what should have been science. Fauci has been the one at the lead in all of this disaster which will impact the world for decades.
After the disastrous earnings of Meta, and Netflix, the market is suffering more declines. Both were very widely owned and touted by almost all analysts who pushed Meta as a buy right up to the earnings report. This is why I pay very little attention to what analysts say. Neither of those stocks were ever in my portfolio. Facebook now has real competition and real constraints on how it violates your privacy. Whatever the so called metaverse is, will not be generating replacement revenue of real magnitude for several years. In short, Facebook-META may have seen its best days. Kids are off to the latest social media platform. I stuck with the companies that I feel were well run by adults and financially solid, whose products and services are deeply embedded in society and business such that they can’t get eliminated. -APPL, MSFT, AMZN, and TMO which is essential now in the healthcare industry. There are a small number of similar companies that I feel are big, cash rich, and have top quality adult management, and a product line that is recession proof, or which is top of class. META may be widely used, but nobody needs META to function the way they need APPL, MSFT, CRM or ADBE. There is a major difference. All of these companies have adults as CEO, and a carefully thought out long term business strategy. The bad earnings reports of META and Netflix are a sign of companies whose business is really a fad, and subject to intense competition and regulation, and management that is not qualified to successfully alter strategy to make the basic product line more sustainable, and able to withstand strong competition. Netflix is a one trick pony which is now being attacked from all sides by stronger competitors. Meta is mainly social media which now has numerous competitors like Tik Toc. They now are trying to create a Metaverse. A make believe fantasy where idiots buy make believe real estate and other make believe things, and have avatars as friends. To me this is scary that people are living in a make believe life. This is not a business. It is make believe games. Like Crypto, it is valued on fantasies, only much worse. Crypto can be used to buy real things in some cases. Metaverse is pure childish fantasy. APPL and MSFT create a series of real products and services that are needed by hundreds of millions, and have a place in the world that will be hard to displace for years. CRM and ADBE are in similar positions. So my portfolio now is part cash, and a small number (14) of these types of companies that will ride out whatever is coming over the next two years, be it recession, high interest rates, regulation, or a war in Ukraine. I also own some energy companies which will do well so long as the US constrains oil production. I am in a position, and am willing to just wait it out now. There is plenty of time to wait to redeploy the cash.
Inflation is already impacting spending and is going higher. A recent survey showed that 40% of consumers deferred a major buy like a new TV, or car, due to inflation. As prices rise further, and as real wages and the value of their 401K decline, with no new government give away programs, they will cut back further. 50% of Americans have money in the stock market in some form, many in a 401K, and as house prices stop rising, the wealth effect will turn negative, and that will impact spending further. Yet into this situation, the Dems want to raise taxes and increase spending even more, which will just stoke inflation.
The ideology of the left is that the government has to control everything, and needs to take from the job creators and give to the lazy. It is the essence of victim ideology. People are not equal in terms of ability nor drive. There is inequality because some people are born smarter, just as some are born better basketball players. Some people are driven to study and work hard to succeed and become rich. Others are fine to just work in a job for a living, or to take government handouts. Many of us started with nothing and now are rich. Nobody gave us anything other than opportunity to succeed or fail. We don’t owe anyone anything in return for our success. Giving back is a voluntary thing to help others who we decide should be helped, and not being taxed to fund wasteful government welfare programs used to give money to illegals. It is not an obligation to help those who are not willing to help themselves. There is nothing better than working hard and succeeding to build a person’s self- confidence and self-esteem, and eventually more income.
If we look at the Biden cabinet we see nothing, but gross incompetence, but a lot of diversity. Becerra has no qualifications for HHS, and has had zero role in the pandemic even though this was the worst health crisis in 100 years.. Granholm does not even know how much oil the US consumes. Buttaboy took two months leave at the height of the supply crisis. Mayorkas is a disaster at Homeland Security. The head of CDC is clearly in way over her head. Austin is more interested in CRT than training for fighting wars. And then there is Kamala who is totally incompetent. And now he wants to appoint people to the Fed who are left wing ideologues who want to politicize the Fed, and a black woman to SCOTUS instead of whoever is most qualified-be they black, white, Asian, male or female. There has never been a more incompetent cabinet in modern times. This is what diversity hiring gets you. And these are the people advising a guy who is clearly not smart and whose mental faculties are in decline. It is essential that Republicans control both houses to stop this hiring of incompetence. They also need to control the Senate in case Biden becomes unable to stay in office and they need to impeach Kamala. That might seem very unrealistic, even absurd, and not achievable, but it is not impossible.
Biden issued an order that requires contractors to be union to bid on large federal funded infrastructure projects. This will delay and raise the cost of the projects. Some parts of the country do not have many, if any, union contractors for certain skill sets. It seems illegal to me, but I don’t know the law in such situations.
Biden came to NYC a day AFTER the funeral of the cop. That is all you need to know about where his interest is to do something to help cops and stop runaway crime. Instead he fell back on the old Dem line that it is all the fault of the guns, and let’s just throw money at it. Eric Adams, who surely knows better, did not correct Biden, and just mouthed the same old lines about guns and providing social services and jobs for poor kids. He even used the exact same words as DeBozzo used for the same failed policies. The local Dem party put Bragg in office as DA, and so they are responsible for the mayhem that is occurring. The Dems do not stop this because Soros gives them huge sums to support their left wing DA candidates. Now he just gave $125 million to the Dem Congressional PAC, so of course you never hear a Dem or the media attack Soros. He has them all bought, the same way the teachers unions control Biden.
Trump is handing strong election fodder to the Dems where a Trump backed Republican is running. By continuing his false claims about the election, pardoning January 6 protestors, and attacking Pence, he is making those candidates who tout him easy targets as being Trump puppets. This is how he could cost the Republicans several seats. We will see how the Trump candidates do in the primaries. Hopefully most will lose and save the party for the 22 election. The Republicans have a deep bench of very good presidential candidates, and Trump can only lose it for the party and country in 2024.
Take Back America
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Israel is forced to spend $billions on its "defense" when they could put that money to use helping the world. Thank you Arabs and Muslims for all you do for world peace
+++.
Republicans demand that Joe Biden’s Iran envoy Robert Malley testify to Congress about... |
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