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St John's continues it's progress:
St. John's College
Dear Friend,
Yes, we have more great news: The Jay Pritzker Foundation has announced a $25 million challenge grant aimed at bringing in $75 million over the next 10 years for campus improvements.
Much more on this is below.
But first, let us put our spectacular news in context.
It is important to reflect on how far we have come together.
In 2015 the college was in trouble. We were running large operating deficits, enrollment was declining, and we lacked a vision as to how to solve the many problems we faced.
So when we started the Freeing Minds capital campaign a short time later, we had to take a leap of faith that our community would have the confidence that we would address our weaknesses and would rally around preserving our key strength—a transformational educational Program unique in American higher education.
And our community has responded wonderfully!
The campaign has steadily gained momentum—in fact, we have exceeded expectations at every stage.
As the campaign gained strength, so did the college. Leadership took the difficult but necessary steps to reduce the deficit and delivered a balanced operating budget in the year they said they would—2021–22. A major achievement.
Catalyzed by the gutsy decision to lower tuition by one-third in 2018, applications to the college are at historic highs, and enrollment is up significantly. Another major achievement.
As we hoped, the campaign has resulted in significant growth in the endowment and thus in the dollars the college can draw to support salaries, maintain an affordable tuition price, and continue increasing our financial aid and academic support for students in need.
As a result of all these steps, the college is now very strong. Strong enough that at our meeting this last November, the Board of Visitors and Governors voted to restore the cuts made to faculty and staff salaries and to approve an increase in “M” (the base faculty salary) for the first time in well over a decade.
And now we can share more great news—we now have the opportunity to address another urgent issue that we had feared would be a “bridge too far” for this campaign.
That issue is the need for serious dollars to undertake substantial improvements to the physical plants of both the Annapolis and Santa Fe campuses.
At our November board meeting we collectively worried that as successful as our campaign has been, we still would not have sufficient funds to bring our facilities up to a reasonable standard.
After the meeting, board member Karen Pritzker asked Mark Roosevelt what we should be spending on campus improvements in the next decade, and he told her “around $75 million.”
To raise that amount Ms. Pritzker has issued a challenge grant from the Jay Pritzker Foundation pledging $25 million, or $2.5 million a year, for the next decade to the Campus Improvement Fund, if the college matches every $1 the Foundation provides with an additional $2—thus producing the needed $75 million.
In the weeks that followed, we asked board members to dig deep, to really stretch, and they responded by taking responsibility for the first $25 million in matching funds.
Due to these commitments, campus leadership has already begun planning for the much-needed renovation of the Peterson Student Center in Santa Fe and several dormitories on the Annapolis campus.
Those gifts bring us to where we are now: sharing this spectacular news with you and asking for your help in raising the additional $25 million.
It is stunning to reflect on how far we have traveled together. From precarious to secure, from problems going unattended to addressing multiple issues with spirit, resolve, and newly committed resources.
When you help us pass this next test of our commitment to St. John’s by contributing to the Pritzker Challenge, you can do so with the assurance that when we achieve our goal and close the Freeing Minds campaign at the end of June 2023, the college will be in the strongest financial condition it has ever been in. We will have guaranteed that the Program that is the center of the college will be accessible for many more generations of aspirational students.
Stay with us. Stay IN.
Ron Fielding, Board Chair, Leslie Jump, Board Vice Chair, and Warren Spector, Freeing Minds Campaign Chair
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Admission:
I have memos written and scheduled to be mailed through February 19.
Because my memo list includes over 600 names it is quite likely that when you receive them your computer interprets them as junk and sends them to spam mail etc. Also, from time to time some readers cancel either by mistake or purposely and then do not know how to reinstate. I can do this for you but it is a bit complex and Mail Chimp get's involved and makes it a bit difficult.
Associated Press reporter admits covering up for Arafat
Arafat was clearly delusional in the interview with AP reporter, which they admit today, but he was portrayed as a man of peace. Opinion.
18.01.22 17:09
By Stephen M. Flatow
Did American journalists cover up for Yasir Arafat, as critics often claimed at the time? A longtime reporter for the Associated Press has finally let the cat out of the bag, and it’s not a pretty sight.
In a recent blog post, veteran journalist Dan Perry recounted an interview he did with Arafat for the AP in December 2001. The date is important, because for the previous fifteen months, Arafat had been leading a massive terrorism war against Israel, which the Palestinian Arabs called the “Second Intifada.” Wave after wave of suicide bombings and shootings, for which Arafat’s Fatah movement openly claimed responsibility. Those of us in Israel at the time will never forget the empty streets, stores and buses.
“Was Arafat the one sending crazies to blow themselves up in Israeli buses and cafes?,” Perry wrote in his recent blog. “The Palestinian narrative said violence began organically…and Israel overreacted. Something didn’t quite add up and my colleagues and I at the Associated Press resolved to figure the whole thing out.”
So, they set out for Ramallah, to “figure the whole thing out” by asking Arafat. Not by believing Fatah’s constant claims of responsibility for the attacks against Israel. Instead, they were going to ask Arafat.
The interview began with Arafat complaining that he was not getting enough praise for having “already arrested 17 key militants.” (Perry never uses the word “terrorists” a trend that AP continues to this day.)
Perry, in his recent blog: “I suggested that if violence so devastating was happening against his will for over a year, the forces carrying it out must be very strong indeed. ‘You are speaking with Yasser Arafat,’ he admonished me. ‘I know how to do it. I know how to do it.’ ”
Read that question again. Perry was challenging Arafat. He was saying, in effect: “You claim the terrorism is being carried out against your will, which means that the terrorists must be ‘very strong indeed,’ which means arresting 17 of them is woefully inadequate.”
Having failed to get a straight answer about the arrests, Perry next asked Arafat if he “regretting not doing more to prevent the outbreak,” since “1,000 Palestinians had been killed” as a result of the violence.
Perry was referring to terrorists who were killed in Israeli actions, and Arab civilians who were inadvertently killed when terrorists stationed their men and weapons in civilian neighborhoods, in order to use them as human shields.
The PLO leader’s response? “Arafat said the death toll actually stood at 2,000. I tried to argue, but Arafat insisted...”
Then Perry asked Arafat if he regretted not accepting Prime Minister Ehud Barak’s reported offer of a Palestinian state in over 90% of the "territories". “‘We have our independent state,’ Arafat protested. This would have been a major scoop! Did they sign a secret deal that they were keeping from the world? Arafat smiled in conspiratorial fashion: ‘Ask Barak’.”
Thus, there were three significant news items contained in the interview: Arafat was evasive about why he had arrested only 17 terrorists; Arafat was lying about the death toll, falsely claiming that it was twice what it really was; and a delusional Arafat was weirdly claiming that a Palestinian state already existed.
Which of these revelations appeared in the article that Perry and his colleague Karin Laub wrote in their December 8, 2001, article for the AP?
None of them. Not one.
—Arafat falsely inflating the number of fatalities. Not mentioned.
-- Perry and Laub did mention Barak’s offer of a Palestinian state. But instead of truthfully reporting that the delusional Arafat claimed the state already existed, they wrote: “But the Palestinians held out for more land and a ‘right of return’ for millions of refugees and their descendants.”
— And as for Perry challenging Arafat for arresting only 17 terrorists, here’s what Perry and Laub wrote: “Asked whether he would be prepared to face down resistance by the militants and their growing legions of supporters, Arafat smiled and said: ‘You are speaking with Yasser Arafat. I know how to do it. I know how to do it.’”
They simply covered up the fact that Arafat had evaded Perry’s question.
In fact, one could say the entire article was a cover-up. Instead of reporting what Arafat actually said—the delusions, the lies, the ducking of questions about the arrests—Perry and Laub portrayed Arafat as a man of peace who was bravely fighting the terrorists:
“He said he will not shy away from a confrontation with the militant Hamas and Islamic Jihad groups to revive what hope remains for peace…He said he will continue pursuing the rest despite the continuing Israeli airstrikes…He said he was ready to return to peace talks immediately…”
All this, despite the fact that Perry knew—as he wrote in his recent blog post—that Arafat’s claim of fighting the terrorists was wildly implausible, since there were so many of them, and he had arrested only 17 of those “key militants.”
Perry concluded his blog post with this interesting reflection on Arafat’s military uniform: “Perhaps it [was] borrowed from a play about a fairytale army whose ranks contain one single, solitary man. A very senior officer, who believed that everything was real.”
So today, Perry reflects wistfully on the delusional Arafat. But Perry knew the truth at the time. He knew from the interview that Arafat was a deluded, conspiratorial lunatic. But Perry covered it up.
It would have been very helpful to Israelis, American Jews, and everybody else to know the truth about Arafat. They could have made more informed decisions if they had that information. But for some reason, Dan Perry and the Associated Press didn’t want them to have it. I wonder why.
Stephen M. Flatow, is an attorney and the father of Alisa Flatow, who was murdered in an Iranian-sponsored Palestinian terrorist attack in 1995. He is the author of “A Father’s Story: My Fight for Justice Against Iranian Terrorism.”
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I believe Ross is premature in his decision to begin cutting back. I still believe the economy is strong, The Fed will not be radical in raising rates though they may begin with 1/2 a point and the world economy has yet to re-link. Also China has been a drag and will begin to re-stimulate. Invasion of Ukraine is a bigcloud and what happens vis a vis Iran also is a major cloud.
There are crosswinds now that make it less clear what the year will look like, and where the stock market is going. Consumers and most companies are still in very good financial condition with adequate to excellent cash and liquidity according to Jamie Dimon. Savings are still high allowing for adjusting for inflation, although savings are now declining as things reopen and there are no more pandemic subsidies. Consumers still have some pent up demand, and companies are spending to upgrade technology, and to expand facilities. The government at all levels is spending too much. Infrastructure projects will get underway over the next two years. The dollar remains strong and interest rates are going to remain relatively low for at least three quarters, and maybe longer. Relatively low means the ten year under 2.5% for the next several months, and for much of the year 2%-2.5% to a probable year end 3.0%. That is still negative real rates. All of this would normally be excellent for profits growth. On the other hand, inflation is at a 40 year high, and it is not likely to reduce materially for a while, and will likely be higher in January, and February. Nominal wages will continue to rise all year, squeezing margins. Oil prices will likely continue to rise all year and settle around $85-$95. It is already at around $87. That means gas prices and energy prices will remain high, crimping consumer spending. Food prices are continuing to rise. It will take several more months to sort out the shipping problems with over 100 ships still backed up in the Pacific. There are now some analysts forecasting 5-7 rate increases which coincides with my forecast that the Fed will raise by 50BP in October, and will raise more than a total of 1.5% by year end. I now think it possible to see a 50BP raise in June. We will likely see the ten year at 3.0% by start of 2023. M2 increased at 42% over two years, and is still rising too fast at 12% annualized now. Means more inflation ahead. Real disposable income is declining now. Consumers will cut back.
It is likely that demand was pulled forward with all the fiscal spend subsidies, and people sitting home remodeling or buying furniture or other things. The slowdown is already underway. While there will be a boost in April and May as things reopen, inflation and a reduction in real wages will create a later decline. Inflation has eaten up the savings of low income families who also no longer have their Covid handouts. There is also the issue that many people already bought their stuff last year. At some point in 2023, supply will catch up with declining demand
The thing to pay attention to is the reversing of QE and the reduction of the balance sheet. That will be the same or greater impact than a 25BP rate increase, depending on how fast they let the balance sheet run down. The Fed was the bond market all last year, and now it has $9 trillion of bonds they need to start selling. Some respected people say Powell now does not care what Biden wants. Powell is angry at Biden for delaying his renomination, and he will do whatever he believes is right and needed to get inflation under control whether the White House likes it or not. I have no idea if this is true, but it makes sense. As chair, he can influence policy, so it will be interesting to see if he can overrule the three newly nominated members who are political puppets of the White House. Retail sales are already slowing and inflation is already causing a pullback in some spending. Some retailers are possibly over ordering to deal with supply chain problems, and might end up with too much inventory. Several forecasters are reducing 2022 GDP forecasts to 2-3% Overall, this is not headed in a good direction.
Omicron has thrown a real bad wrench into the supply chain as you will have noticed in any supermarket. The impact of that will negatively impact Q1 earnings and GDP. However, if all goes as is expected, Omicron is peaking this week, and will decline very quickly as we move into February. That should unleash increased spending in late-February, and definitely in March as consumers return to stores and travel in the spring. It is unclear how much of the spending decline in December was really due to consumers shopping early, and how much was due to a true slowdown due to inflation and Covid. We won’t know where spending really is until we see March numbers, and it is after Covid has gone mostly away. Barring another raging variant, the summer should be wide open for travel and spending. The good news about Omicron is now the vaccinated and infected immune should be over 90% by spring. Also by then there should be drugs we can take at home if symptoms appear.
Despite inflation, there should be no negative impact on the big tech growth companies revenue and earnings. It really does not impact them. I am not convinced the downturn in those stocks will last. They will continue to grow rapidly, and as they add services, they will increase their already excellent and consistent revenue growth. As I have said many times, higher rates really have no impact on their business, and for analysts to say the discount rate based on higher rates will mean lower stock prices is BS. Net present value requires an accurate forecast of future earnings, and the Street has underestimated that number every year, so even if you use a higher discount rate, the numbers being discounted will be materially higher, so you end up in the same place. The Street expects superb Q4 2021 earnings from energy, industrials, materials, and cyclicals. The real issue is that the economy will grow more slowly from here as rates rise, inflation continues and the supply chain issues take months to fix.
Inflation is now curbing spending as we have already seen, and it is going to get worse as consumers just stop spending as much on discretionary items, or as they shift to alternatives. I continue to believe there is still a chance for a recession in Q3, but that depends a lot on what the Fed does, and even they don’t know. We have already gone from forecasts of no rate increases until 2023, to two, to three, to now 5-7 in 2022. It is therefore meaningless to listen to any of these forecasts. With Brainard and the three diversity members, they may be slower to raise than truly independent and competent members of the board would do. Result, the stock market might do better than I have expected, but that is now very unclear. It will not be a big up year, and could easily be a big down year. An invasion of Ukraine, and then maybe Taiwan would change everything . I continue to favor big cash rich companies with top brand names and top quality management. I continue to sit on substantial cash.
Biden did as expected and nominated his left wing diversity nominees for the Fed who are more focused on climate change, regulation and diversity, than on monetary policy issues. If they get through the Senate, which is likely, the Fed will cease to be the independent agency it is legally required to be. The Fed has nothing at all to do with climate, and they should not be dictating to lenders who they should be allocating capital to. We already have fuel shortages driving gas prices higher, and now the administration wants the Fed to make that even worse. Stupid and irresponsible is an understatement. It sets up the Fed to be politically driven, which means it could be at the mercy of whatever comes along as the latest fad thing at the White House. I would love some Senator to ask one of these nominees, show us a climate model that you can certify is fully accurate on which the Fed should be interfering with capital allocations. There is not one accurate climate model-even the UN climate group has agreed with this. All they say is the models are getting more accurate. It is unclear if even that is true. Politicizing central banks is a disaster waiting to happen as we now see in Turkey. The Fed has not gotten any major issue correct in decades, so now we are to trust them to get involved in climate change, which is already an inaccurate subject pushed by people who refuse to listen to those scientists who say the consequences of climate change are way overstated and inaccurately measured. This politicization of the Fed is a major risk that is being shoved to the side for which we will pay later. The Fed could not even forecast the crash in 2008, and completely missed the current inflation. And now we are supposed to trust them to make decisions based on inaccurate and hyped climate politics.
Putin is continuing to play a masterful power game. It is very dangerous as some little incident could trigger an all out war. Remember 1914 in the same general area of the world. Now Putin has been caught trying a false flag play, but if he was willing to try that, he is willing to try some other ploy. He may try to do some little incursion and then stop again and negotiate from there as he did in Georgia, but not pull back. I think now that the false flag ploy was exposed, it will be much harder for him to pull this off. NATO should use the false flag to now rush 75,000 troops into Poland and Lithuania, and pour heavy weapons into Ukraine along with some special forces units for training. It is also time to levy some new sanctions just to say this is just the start. It is time to play Putin’s game. There is no question Afghanistan is the event that brought all this on. The ramifications of that has created a very dangerous world which will just get worse over the next 3 years. The hostage drama in TX was likely a result of Afghanistan as it has encouraged the terrorists that the US is weak, and now is the time to strike new incidents. The eventual outcome of this Ukraine confrontation will determine where the world goes for the next several years. It is a key moment in history, and Putin is the one in total control of events.
The UK is sending weapons, Canada sent in special forces, unclear what the US is doing. Germany has blocked all NATO flights with weapons to Ukraine from flying over Germany. It is exactly as predicted- they are dependent on Russia for energy having now shut 3 of their last 6 nuke plants a couple of weeks ago.
Question. How did a terrorist whose name was on a list, get a visa to enter the US. Did Homeland Security stop watching so they can watch parents in VA.
The radical DA’s in several major cities have helped create the crime wave, and until they are replaced, and the no bail laws are eliminated, the cities will suffer losses of major retailers and services to those communities, so in the end it will be the black poorer communities who lose. In NYC many of the experienced prosecutors have already quit instead of being subject to the new DA’s policies. The city is going to pay a high price for this, and Adams has totally failed to do anything, or to say anything. The other problem in NYC is the precinct captains are being recruited to run small city forces, leaving day to day management short of experienced leaders.
Here is the really good news. The left is done. They lost big. The squad has been squashed. Their radical and anti-Semitic rhetoric and laws have done them in. The Dems are losing the Jews, blacks, and Latinos who constituted their solid base until now. The big voter shift is already well underway in a major way. Only 25% of independents approve of Biden. The 35% approval includes Dems in the averaging, so it does not reflect the real negative mood. The Biden speech on voting rights was the push that made it a final push into the ditch. The radicals found they could not control the votes and the narrative, and now the voters are very angry and frustrated. Most do not accept the world is ending due to climate. They see their fuel bills. They see the cost of groceries, and they see crime spinning out of control. Climate is some esoteric talking point for the elite and the press who nobody believes anymore. We are all fed up with being called racists, and the perversion of history and the brainwashing of kids. Blacks need to stand on their own and work hard to get ahead like all of us did. Nobody ever gave me anything, so don’t tell me I need to give money and jobs to others who did not work to achieve it. There will be a real test in the primaries to see if Trump backed candidates can win or not. If they try to still claim Trump really won, and there was massive fraud, they will lose, if not the primary, then the election. Trump is the one thing that can keep the Republicans from a historic sweep up and down the ballot. While I am well aware of the number of Trump supporters, I prefer to deal in objective analysis, not rhetoric.
George Orwell said: One has to belong to the intelligencia to believe things like that. No ordinary man could be such a fool. The elites in DC and the press said inflation was transitory, the Georgia voting laws are racist and suppressing the vote, we need to spend another $5 trillion to cut inflation, blacks need to be given jobs, medical degrees, and therapeutics for Covid based on skin color not merit, CRT needs to be taught in school. We now hear the same claims we heard in the seventies, that it is corporate greed, we need anti-trust action, and even price controls. November 2022 will be a rerun of the Regan Revolution vote in 1980. The real question now is why only Manchin has the brains and guts to do the right thing. What happened to the old moderate and blue dog Dems. After November the Dens will be in a civil war with themselves after they get wiped out.
And:
Tunnel Complex at Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran ‘Deeper than Expected’
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I have to do more thinking about this:
Is America Heading for a Systems Collapse?
Victor Davis Hanson January 19, 2022
As the 2022 midterm elections approach, who will stop our descent into collective poverty, division—and self-inflicted madness?
In modern times, as in ancient Rome, several nations have suffered a “systems collapse.” The term describes the sudden inability of once prosperous populations to continue with what had ensured the good life as they knew it.
Abruptly, the population cannot buy, or even find, once plentiful necessities. They feel their streets are unsafe. Laws go unenforced or are enforced inequitably. Everyday things stop working. The government turns from reliable to capricious if not hostile.
Consider contemporary Venezuela. By 2010, the once well-off oil-exporting country was mired in a self-created mess. Food became scarce, crime ubiquitous.
Radical socialism, nationalization, corruption, jailing opponents, and the destruction of constitutional norms were the culprits.
Between 2009 and 2016, a once relatively stable Greece nearly became a Third World country. So did Great Britain in its socialist days of the 1970s.
Joe Biden’s young presidency may already be leading the United States into a similar meltdown.
Hard Left “woke” ideology has all but obliterated the idea of a border. Millions of impoverished foreigners are entering the United States illegally—and during a pandemic without either COVID-19 tests or vaccinations.
The health bureaucracies have lost credibility as official communiques on masks, herd and acquired immunity, vaccinations, and comorbidities apparently change and adjust to perceived political realities.
After decades of improving race relations, America is regressing into a premodern tribal society.
Crime soars. Inflation roars. Meritocracy is libeled and so we are governed more by ideology and tribe.
The soaring prices of the stuff of life—fuel, food, housing, health care, transportation—are strangling the middle class.
Millions stay home, content to be paid by the state not to work. Supply shortages and empty shelves are the new norm.
Nineteenth century-style train robberies are back. So is 1970s urban violence, replete with looting, carjackings, and random murdering of the innocent.
After the Afghanistan debacle, we have returned to the dark days following defeat in Vietnam, when U.S. deterrence abroad was likewise shattered, and global terrorism and instability were the norms abroad.
Who could have believed a year ago that America would now beg Saudi Arabia and Russia to pump more oil—as we pulled our own oil leases, and canceled pipelines and oil fields?
Our path to systems collapse is not due to an earthquake, climate change, a nuclear war, or even the COVID-19 pandemic.
Instead, most of our maladies are self-inflicted. They are the direct result of woke ideologies that are both cruel and antithetical to traditional American pragmatism.
Hard-Left district attorneys in our major cities refuse to charge thousands of arrested criminals—relying instead on bankrupt social justice theories.
Law enforcement has been arbitrarily defunded and libeled. Police deterrence is lost, so looters, vandals, thieves, and murderers more freely prey on the public.
“Modern monetary theory” deludes ideologues that printing trillions of dollars can enrich the public, even as the ensuing inflation is making people poorer.
“Critical race theory” absurdly dictates that current “good” racism can correct the effects of past bad racism. A once tolerant, multiracial nation is resembling the factionalism of the former Yugoslavia.
The culprit again is a callous woke ideology that posits little value for individuals, prioritizing only the so-called collective agenda.
Woke’s trademark is “equity,” or a forced equality of result. Practically, we are becoming a comic-book version of victims and victimizers, with woke opportunists playacting as our superheroes.
Strangest in 2021 was the systematic attack on our ancient institutions, as we scapegoated our ancestors for our own incompetencies.
The woke have waged a veritable war against the 233-year-old Electoral College and the right of states to set their own balloting laws in national elections, the 180-year-old filibuster, the 150-year-old nine-person Supreme Court, and the 60-year-old, 50-state union.
The U.S. military, Department of Justice, FBI, CIA, Center for Disease Control, and National Institutes of Health until recently were revered. Their top echelons were staffed by career professionals mostly immune to the politics of the day.
Not now. These bureaus and agencies are losing public confidence and support. Citizens fear rather than respect Washington grandees who have weaponized politics ahead of public service.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, Attorney General Merrick Garland, former FBI heads like James Comey and Andrew McCabe, retired CIA director John Brennan, and Anthony Fauci head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases—politicalized and vastly exceeded their professional purviews.
They sounded off in public fora as if they were elected legislators up for reelection. Some lied under oath. Others demonized critics. Most sought to become media darlings.
This governmental freefall is overseen by a tragically bewildered, petulant, and incompetent president. In his confusion, an increasingly unpopular Joe Biden seems to believe his divisive chaos is working, belittling his political opponents as racist Confederate rebels.
As we head into the 2022 midterm elections, who will stop our descent into collective poverty, division—and self-inflicted madness?
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If The Fed Reserve Governors were pilots this would be the way they would land:
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More than an unusual number of memo readers have been telling me they have not been receiving my memos.I have memos written and scheduled to be mailed through February 19.
Because my memo list includes over 600 names it is quite likely that when you receive them your computer interprets them as junk and sends them to spam mail etc. Also, from time to time some readers cancel either by mistake or purposely and then do not know how to reinstate. I can do this for you but it is a bit complex and Mail Chimp get's involved and makes it a bit difficult.
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