1) NEVER SPEAKS FORCEFULLY ABOUT ANTI-SEMITISM.
2) HAS ALLOWED OUR BORDERS TO BECOME A TOTAL ENTRY ZONE.
3) FIRED OIL WORKERS WHO WERE MAKING GOOD SALARIES AND CRIPPLED SeVERAL OIL CITIES,. NOW ENERGY COSTS AND INFLATION HAVE SPIRALED
4) AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL AN UNPLANNED DISASTER.
CAIR Not Only Inspires Terrorists. It's Historically Linked to Them | Opinion
RABBI YAAKOV MENKEN , MANAGING DIRECTOR, COALITION FOR JEWISH VALUES
A recent report from the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), "Islamophobia in the Mainstream," is a case study in projection—the psychological process of attributing one's own defects to others. In this case, the defect is hate, and the target is an all-too familiar one: the Jewish people and their allies.
It is not difficult here to discern the hater from the hated: Just days after CAIR issued its report, Malik Faisal Akram pursued CAIR's antisemitic agenda by entering a Texas synagogue with a gun. In a speech delivered to a Muslim audience in November, the executive director of CAIR's San Francisco office, Zahra Billoo, identified "Zionist synagogues" like Congregation Beth Israel and all "polite Zionists"—essentially all Jews—as "your enemies," both Islamophobic and opposed to "human rights." Billoo further advised those listening and watching to "fight back."
Rather than disavow her hateful and antisemitic remarks, CAIR claimed that Billoo was "misquoted" and the victim of an "online smear campaign." Sadly for CAIR, the video is available for all to see.
In just the past two months, CAIR also organized a series of rallies in Texas for the release of Aafia Siddiqui, just as Akram demanded. The connection between CAIR's statements and Malik Akram's beliefs is undeniable—and this is true regardless of whether Akram watched Billoo's speech or was aware of the rallies. This is because CAIR is part of a global network that promotes a hateful agenda that has targeted both Jews and democratic institutions for decades.
CAIR's report is an exercise in disinformation, dishing out terms like "hate group," "misinformation" and "propaganda" without, in most cases, even a single purported example of "Islamophobia." It is just a projection of CAIR's own bigotry, which frequently takes aim at a list of prominent pro-Israel advocates, the Israel Defense Forces and the international Jewish community at-large.
Undoubtedly, before long, the Coalition for Jewish Values, where I serve as managing director, will be part of the assembly that CAIR attacks. When informed by a reporter that our organization had called the report "both pro-terror and antisemitic," CAIR responded by branding us an "extremist voice." And in calling our assessment of the antisemitic nature of the Texas attack "bizarre and unfounded," CAIR professes to know more about Jew-hatred than do 2,000 observant rabbis. Good luck with that.
In its report, CAIR accused the Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting and Analysis (CAMERA) of "Islamophobia" because CAMERA once published a report on The Islamic Society of North America that "accuses multiple American-Muslim organizations and individuals to be front groups for terrorism."
The problem for CAIR is that CAMERA's assertions are true.
CAIR was incorporated by Omar Ahmad, Rafiq Jaber and Nihad Awad in 1994. To become its founding director, Awad left his position as public relations director for the Islamic Association for Palestine (IAP), which has been described by the FBI counterterrorism chief as "a front organization for Hamas that engages in propaganda for Islamic militants," and by the U.S. government itself as a founding member of the Muslim Brotherhood's "Palestine Committee." Ahmad was the IAP president at that time, while Jaber became IAP president in 1996.
Within a month after its formation, CAIR, which was soon listed as a "working organization" by the Palestine Committee, received a $5,000 check—followed weeks later by a $5,000 wire transfer—from the Holy Land Foundation (HLF).
The HLF was convicted in 2008 of providing over $12 million to Hamas, a U.S. State Department-designated foreign terrorist organization. The FBI called this "the largest victory against terrorist financing in the U.S. since the 9/11 attacks." HLF's founders received life sentences, and CAIR was listed by the FBI as an unindicted co-conspirator, serving as the public relations arm of a web of terrorist-affiliated groups.
When CAIR was first accused in U.S. Senate testimony of receiving seed money from the HLF, Ahmad denied it, while Awad called it an "outright lie." Presented with a copy of the check, Awad revised his testimony, describing a $5,000 check less than three weeks after incorporation as "a donation like any other."
With its recent report accusing mainstream Jewish organizations as well as allies of the Jewish people of "Islamophobia," CAIR both inverts hater and hated and advances the extremist agenda of the Muslim Brotherhood: to make Jews less welcome, and to make terrorism against Jews more palatable. This is, in fact, what CAIR has done from effectively day one of its existence.
Now that CAIR has targeted Jews in such an open and egregious manner, it has lost any right to the benefit of the doubt—though, in fact, it never had any such right at the outset. CAIR has unmasked itself as the virulent hate group that it has always been. Americans must oppose CAIR and the antisemitism that it foments and disseminates.
Rabbi Yaakov Menken is managing director of the Coalition for Jewish Values.
and:
The United Nations Human Rights Council has voted on a resolution to fund a biased, one-sided “Commission of Inquiry” meant to demonize and delegitimize the state of Israel, labeling it an “Apartheid state.” Unbeknownst to many of us, this mendacious screed was concocted in Moscow during the Cold War, with the assistance of the Soviet propaganda machine. We are honored to host Colonel Richard Kemp, of the Royal British Army.
About the speaker:
Richard Kemp has spent most of his life fighting terrorism and insurgency, commanding British troops on the front line of some of the world’s toughest hotspots, including Afghanistan, Iraq, the Balkans and Northern Ireland. He is now a writer, a prolific journalist, media commentator and motivational speaker. He provides strategic consultancy services on leadership, security, intelligence, counter-terrorism and defense.
Colonel Kemp has been a hero in the battle against the demonization of Israel. Kemp asked to be interviewed by the United Nations Fact Finding Mission on the Gaza Conflict (also known as the Goldstone Report), which was established by the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) as an independent international fact-finding mission "to investigate all violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law by the occupying Power, Israel, against the Palestinian people throughout the Occupied Palestinian Territory, particularly in the occupied Gaza Strip, due to the current aggression." His request was rejected "because the report did not deal with the issues he raised regarding the problems of conducting military operations in civilian areas".
Kemp publicly rejected the conclusions of the investigation, denying allegations that Israel engaged in war crimes and crimes against humanity. Kemp said: "Of course innocent civilians were killed. War is chaos and full of mistakes. There have been mistakes by the British, American and other forces in Afghanistan and in Iraq, many of which can be put down to human error. But mistakes are not war crimes...Based on my knowledge and experience, I can say this: during Operation Cast Lead, the Israeli Defense Forces did more to safeguard the rights of civilians in the combat zones than any other army in the history of warfare."
In the report of a June 2009 conference at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs Kemp also accused Hamas of deploying women and children as suicide attackers, and wrote that "Women and children are trained and equipped to fight, collect intelligence and ferry arms and ammunition between battles."
Colonel Kemp was appointed Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE), Military Division, on 25 April 1994 in recognition of his intelligence work in Northern Ireland in 1993, and was awarded the Queen's Commendation for Bravery for service as a commander in the United Nations Protection Force in Bosnia in 1994. He was promoted Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE), Military Division, in the New Year Honors 2006. He received an honorary doctorate from Bar-Ilan University in 2015.
Colonel Kemp is also a 2017 recipient of one of EMET’s coveted “Speaker of the Truth" Awards.
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2020 lingers only for those out of touch with voters' march forward BY SALENA ZITO
More than a year after the 2020 presidential election cycle, signs for Donald Trump still graced the front lawns of homes across the country. And it wasn’t just lawns. Front porches, sides of barns, boats, and motorcycles all proudly flew Trump flags.
It was and remains a phenomenon that few outside of those who displayed that sentiment understood. The press saw it as a cult, Democrats believed that, and so did a lot of Republicans. So, instead of exploring it and asking voters the "whys," they spent 2021 either running for or against Trump, or writing endless stories about Trump.
What they missed was that these signs weren’t necessarily about fealty to Trump himself. For most of those posting them, this was probably about reminding themselves and anyone else that they were still who they were. They were not going to disappear just because Trump lost.
In short, if you were a Trump supporter, you can still feel grateful for his policies yet be ready for someone new. You can be proud that he called out the press and the bureaucracy, and that he had official Washington's head exploding on a daily basis, yet still understand that the Trump era is over.
The press have had a very difficult time processing this nuance. In their mind's eye, these sentiments are inconsistent. You are either a member of the cult, or you aren't.
This short-sighted view caused them to miss the massive shift rightward in states across the country ahead of the 2021 off-year election cycle — not just in Virginia and New Jersey, but in down-ballot elections across the country for school boards, sheriffs' offices, and municipal row offices in places where Republicans rarely compete, let alone win.
In New York state, Democrats conceded afterward that Republican wins in bedroom and suburban communities across the state had been a shellacking. Same in Pennsylvania, where Republicans won three of four statewide judicial races, retaining a seat on the state Supreme Court and at least gaining ground with voters in Democratic-leaning places such as Chester, Delaware, and Bucks counties.
The press weren't alone; the Democrats ran the bulk of their messaging tying Trump and Trump voters with the riot of Jan. 6, 2021. What they missed is that, although voters understand the circumstances of that day, they moved on a long time ago. They are concerned now with the circumstances that actually affect their daily lives — fanatical pandemic restrictions, inflation, crime, supply-chain disruptions, border
A recent Morning Consult survey suggests that Jan. 6 is far from voters' minds heading into this year's midterm contests. Nearly half of voters (47%) said they don’t expect the events of last January to have any impact on their votes in November. And yes, two-thirds of them say it's important to investigate the riot.
You would think Democrats would have figured that out after trying to tie the two together throughout 2021. They haven't. Democrats' premier super PAC, Priorities USA, just launched a six-figure ad buy called Coup. Its narrator opens with a dark and dire warning — “Last time was just a test run” — accompanied by scenes of Trump supporters flooding the Capitol.
Some Republicans have also failed to move on. Some believe that they need Trump’s endorsement to win, so they at least pay lip service to the idea that the 2020 election was stolen. They are making a big mistake.
Click here for the full story.
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Biden left the field open for Putin to decide. Another stupid mistake. Ross Rants.
Biden's news conference will go down in history as a colossal mistake with his comment that a small incursion of Ukraine is a different matter, and he would have to determine with the other NATO members what to do, and there was disagreement. In short, there is not an agreement between some NATO members as to what to do about Ukraine, and Putin knows it. Biden is not being the leader to force agreement. So the US is going to let some small EU nation, or Germany veto action against Russia if they make only a small invasion, whatever that means??? Is that like, if they only invade 10 miles, or is it 15 miles, we will talk about what to do. That was not a misstatement, it was incredible dangerous stupidity which could turn out to be historic foreign policy catastrophe. It also clearly states Biden foreign policy that the US does not lead, it waits to get consensus from even minor EU countries. Obama lead from behind. It is likely Germany would defer, and be preferring to do another meaningless sanction due to its dependence on Russia for gas, and Putin would get away with it. Putin must have been amazed at what he heard. What Biden should have said was--if one Russian soldier so much as sets foot inside Ukraine he will get his head blown off by the now well trained and heavily armed Ukraine army, and we will immediately shut down Russian access to the Swift system, and to any other currency transactions using dollars. We will also make sure Nordstream never starts flowing. (Germany still has not agreed to do that). He should have said, we will retaliate with cyberattacks if he continues to initiate any further cyberattacks . What do you think the Chinese took from Biden's statements. And now Blinken has agreed to send written responses. What a show of weakness. Ukraine is now the keystone to geopolitics for the next several years, and maybe decades. What happens there in the next few weeks will be the determinant for world history events. Does the US lead, or does Russia intimidate using energy as the lever on the EU now that the EU has shut down much of its fossil fueled power generation. This is what climate change mania really means. Another clear example of how the left and climate fanatics have no understanding of the ramifications of what they are doing. We will save you from being warm so you can die from war.
After Afghanistan this is a further demonstration to the world that Biden is an idiot and weak. This is more of Obama's red line in Syria which proved to be no line at all, and a message of weakness. It proved to be a disastrous foreign policy blunder which Putin and the Mullahs then took advantage of. The Biden foreign policy team are the exact same people as under Obama. They learned nothing from Chamberlain nor the gross mistakes of Obama, including his Syria red line. Then Biden followed up and said the Iran talks are not dead. He made it look like he is desperate to do an Iran deal, which he is. He could not have shown more weakness at the news conference if he planned it. The world is now even more dangerous, and the black swans are ecstatic. The swans are going to give Biden an honorary place in their culture. The attempt by the White House to walk that back the Ukraine comments 5 minutes after the presser was over, fails to undo the damage. Everyone heard what Biden said, clear as day. Standby for new cyber attacks and sabotage and other things by Russian operatives already creating major problems inside Ukraine. Putin probably will not fully invade, but he will have his operatives do all sorts of things to disrupt life in Ukraine, and to disrupt their economy, and sew discord so his puppet prime minister can take over. He may even send troops into the breakaway area and have them fire artillery or other weapons just to stir the pot. Germany continues to do nothing helpful, and is even helping Putin by doing things to stop weapons from going to Ukraine. Biden should send hundreds of tons of weapons immediately and tell Germany we are moving our troops to Poland, and tell them pick sides now. This is what climate change policy has wrought, with Germany now dependent on Russia. This is now extremely dangerous. I still do not believe there will be an all out invasion. There is no need to do that for Putin to get what he wants, just as he did in Syria. The EU, and especially Germany, will fold. From Yemen, to Taiwan to Ukraine, US foreign policy is leading the world to potential war.
The press conference confirmed that Biden is stupid, mentally incompetent, delusional, and therefore dangerous. Just in case you have any doubt what I think. He continues to say spending $5 trillion on BBB will lower inflation and the deficit, and that Republicans are suppressing the vote. He actually said if the voting bills don't pass the November election may not be legitimate. What a terribly dangerous thing to say. Ironically, he is echoing Trump's false rhetoric. Between the two of them, they are undermining the credibility of the vote. I think he really believes he is doing a great job, and accomplishing a lot of good things, and it is other people who are causing problems. This means the next three years are going to be extremely dangerous geopolitically, and for the nation. Harris is universally acknowledged to be grossly incompetent, so we are stuck hoping Biden lives, and can at least make believe he is functional. I doubt they are going to ever let him have another long free-wheeling presser. He needs to fire his chief of staff and his speech writers and communications staff. He also needs to fire Blinken and Sullivan, Buttigieg, Miley, and Austin, but he won't fire any of them. After this, the Republicans should take at least 60 seats in the House and control of the Senate. They will also take other key posts down ballot, especially governor and possibly mayoral seats. The left is finished. All they can do now is act like children yelling and calling names. 48 Dems in the Senate have shown they are just puppets who have zero character and zero principles.
Oil is not going down until Biden completely reverses course and allows drilling and pipelines. He might get forced to by 2023 if oil is around $95 for the whole year and the voters are screaming. As Omicron disappears from most of the world, and things reopen fully by spring, the demand for oil will increase substantially, and unless the US is pumping all out, there is no chance the price of oil will drop materially. It could go even higher. Oil and gas demand will increase no matter what the left tries to do to cut fossil fuels. The grid cannot handle the proposed demand from forecast electric cars and other demands. Fossil fuels will be with us for decades more. The absurdity is, the left demands to cut oil production and to stop banks from financing it, and who gets badly hurt by high energy prices, the low income worker whose real income is going down, and the economy generally from inflation caused by high energy costs.
There is a chance we will be in a recession as I have been predicting, as oil prices stay high and the Fed is possibly forced to raise rates by 150- 200 BP in 2022 to try to cope with runaway inflation. If that happens, the ten year would go above 3% by early 2023, or earlier. The good news is Covid will soon be just another flu like virus, life will be back to normal by spring. Overall demand will have dropped enough as a result of inflation reducing real wages, so supply chains should be able to catch up later this year. Chips will remain a problem until year end or longer. The Fed could find itself in a real bind as they raise rates and reduce the balance sheet to fight inflation, but then we get a recession, or at least a major slowdown due to inflation, and they are again caught in the wrong policy. It is very possible the Fed will raise, and then be forced to stop early because the economy and the stock market will be tanking. The political appointees he has put forward for FOMC will be under heavy pressure in the fall to not raise with the election coming. It is now completely clear Powell did hold rates low until he was reappointed, and we are now all paying the price for politization of the Fed. Exactly what the House of Lords study predicted would happen if central banks lost their independence.
* I continue to believe the slamming of the big tech stocks due to higher rates is ridiculous. Even if we have a recession, those companies will do fine. Demand for products and services from Apple, Microsoft, Google etc will continue to grow as the internet becomes even more critical to doing anything. If you notice, there are no more easily accessible customer support operators, and ordering anything, banking, paying bills, getting a loan, making a reservation, buying a car, or dealing with almost anything is now online. If Microsoft can get past the Biden anti-trust blockade, they will bring all sorts of online services beyond just games. Apple will have new things to buy, and Google will add services. None of these companies needs to borrow to do things. Many of the little startups that went public will disappear, just like in the Dotcom era. Analysts say, buy the old line businesses, but if we do have a major economic slowdown, those companies will be the ones to get hurt. Cash is a nice place to be right now. The severe downturn of the market this past two weeks is a bursting of the bubble, and the beginning of the wipe out of IPO's and SPACs that should never have been public. The big solid companies will go forward with lower PE multiples, and over time they will be good investments. Bonds remain losers. This week may be the bottom for now and we could have a upturn to 4550 or 4600. We will see.
My investment experts group are still all over the lot on where the market goes this year. Range on SPX is up 10% down 20%, 3800- 5200. In short nobody at this point has any clue. Estimate of EPS on SPX is $235-$245 and a ten year 2.75% = 4300- 4500 yr end on SPX. I am less optimistic and believe EPS could be lower for the reasons I have stated, and while I agree 2.75% year end on the ten year is reasonable, the lower EPS would result in the market ending around where it is today or lower, with a lot of ups and downs in between. There are so many black swans now, that anything is a pure guess. How long inflation lasts, and what the Fed does will drive the stock market, and even the Fed has no idea right now. Nobody in the group is predicting a real crash. The underlying economy remains strong, and there is still a lot of liquidity, so there is likely to see buying on the dip and being sustained for a while.. Germany has made it clear it is subject to pressure from Putin on energy and is being very detrimental with Ukraine. Russia is going to continue to play games with gas, and keep energy costs very high in the EU, so inflation there will be high all year. The EU is not where you want to invest now. None of this is good for the US market as it just makes more uncertainty and inflation pressures. I believe we have hit bottom for the moment but that is still unclear.
Here is the dilemma. Starting in March the Fed is going to raise rates, but they are also going to begin to let the portfolio run off. At the same time Treasury is issuing huge amounts of new bonds. The Fed has been the market for Treasury and mortgage backed bonds. So what is the rate that clears the market for the ten year and mortgage backed bonds without the Fed as a buyer. Where does the housing market go when rates rise quickly and house prices are unsustainably high. This is a recipe for trouble. Inflation reduces consumer discretionary spending, margins are reduced due to higher wages, and housing suddenly flat lines or trends down. It is why I think there is some possibility of a recession in Q3. Still very unclear.
The Dems and DOJ continue to pursue anyone who was at the capitol on January 6, even if they were only standing around and not doing anything wrong. But they are unwilling to arrest and harshly prosecute criminals who smash and grab, who rioted and destroyed property in 2020, and those who commit other crimes including resisting arrest in NYC. In Dem run cities, criminals can do almost anything with no consequence, but protestors who did nothing on Jan 6 are in jail. Garland is again proving he is just a political hack.
Yellen has again proved to be also just another hack with her trying to defend Biden's economic policies on Friday. She even invented new economic theory called "modern supply side" which nobody knows what that means.
Demographics matter. Chinese population growth is nil. The population is aging. Worker shortages are starting to happen. China will have increasing economic issues as time goes on. It will not stop them. from trying to take over Taiwan and doing other very bad things however. Meantime Larry Fink says triple your investment in China, but stop investing in US energy companies, and he oversees more investment dollars than anyone. He is becoming Soros and dangerous.
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The Russian Mystery
By: George Friedman
In looking at Russian strategy in Ukraine, and indirectly toward the United States, there is a mystery that seems to have an obvious answer but that is difficult to simply accept.
Moscow started with a relatively slow deployment of forces along the Ukrainian border. It appeared to be in a position to invade Ukraine with minimal opposition. Rather than attack, though, Russia engaged in a diplomatic confrontation with the United States, demanding that Ukraine never be admitted into NATO, and that NATO limit its deployment of weapons in Eastern Europe.
Russian negotiators knew full well that the U.S. would never agree to these terms. For one thing, it’s a decision for NATO, not Washington. For another, NATO members in the region are at the easternmost frontier of the alliance. They are the most exposed to potential Russian actions, particularly if Russia takes control of Ukraine. In short, capitulating to Russian demands would leave Eastern Europe open to Russian attacks. Most important to Washington, though, is that its credibility would be mortally wounded, not just in Europe but around the world. Allowing the Russians to force the United States to agree on future relations with a sovereign state was simply a nonstarter. The consequences would be global, and not for nothing, it would create a political crisis in the United States the administration could not manage.
It doesn’t make sense for Russia to delay military operations while making demands it knew were going to be rejected, especially since its military was already deployed. Why would Russia, if fully committed to entering and occupying Ukraine, give the West time to prepare military countermeasures? Moscow understands that its actions would be seen as a threat because that is how they were meant to be seen. It understands there would be a response, but it also understands it can’t be certain what the response would be. Air and naval forces and anti-tank weaponry, for example, could dramatically complicate the invasion.
An invasion of Ukraine is difficult in the best conditions. The country is roughly the size of Afghanistan, and coordinating a complex armored operation presents untold opportunities for failure. The Russian army has not carried out an armored operation since World War II, so the troops are inexperienced. Minimizing the possibility of an anti-Russian buildup would increase the risk to the operation. In an operation of this magnitude, the attack should be made as early as possible. By waiting, Russia increased the risk of failure.
It’s possible, then, that Moscow wanted to float an impossible proposal for propaganda purposes. But the value of world public opinion compared to a successful military operation is minimal. After an invasion, public opinion would be against Russian aggression regardless of diplomatic niceties. The value of public opinion, in other words, only takes you so far.
The only conclusion to be drawn is that Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine, as Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has repeatedly said. Given that Russia failed to act when it could and arguably should have, it seems to me that he might have been telling the truth. On the other hand, we have seen the Russians be active, albeit more subtly, in Belarus, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Logic dictates that Russia must rebuild its historic buffer zone and that Ukraine is essential in this regard. Moscow has done everything in its power to create an atmosphere of crisis. Perhaps it had intelligence that the U.S. and NATO would fold their cards. But the U.S. can’t afford to do nothing. President Joe Biden’s threat to the Russian banking system is either far more devastating than I can fathom or simply a cover for military action. So in this sense, the U.S. is being coy as well, just not nearly as confusingly as the Russians.
My best guess is the Russians have set up negotiation with the most extreme demands as a normal negotiating strategy. But the fact remains that Russian forces are deployed, and resistance is being strengthened. It may be that the Russians are simply confident that their force is still able to win. But a rule of war is that you strike at maximum advantage, and give away no advantage. The rule of diplomacy is to make a lot of threats before making a deal. Right now, it’s one or the other.
And:
Russia Russia Russia
Washington's stupidity and self-indulgence has made war more likely
By Christian Whiton
Greetings from Singapore, seemingly the new capital of East Asia since the Chinese ruined Hong Kong and other contenders have decided not to make the cut.
On Fox News on Monday afternoon, I argued that the Biden administration and the national security establishment, which can’t win a war, has made the Russia-Ukraine crisis much worse. Some points:
Biden and his lieutenants in Washington and London have made it more likely that Russia will invade, especially with their outlandish statements of what will happen to Russia if it does so. This gives Putin a strong incentive to call Biden’s bluff and illustrate the obsolescence of NATO.
Putin knows Washington and London are misrepresenting NATO solidarity. On Monday, Biden claimed “Total unanimity with all the European leaders,” which in reality would last right up to the point you ask them to do something.
None of old NATO from Spain to Turkey will fight or even sanction Russia over Ukraine. Washington and London are mostly alone with Poland and the Baltics, the latter of which could be occupied by the Rhode Island State Police.
Germany has already told Washington it will not support expelling Russia from SWIFT, the Belgian-based mechanism for cross-border financial transactions. Nor will anyone stop buying Russian oil and gas. With low debt, a realist approach to green energy, and growing oil revenue, Russia is in a strong economic position.
I’d still put the probability of all-out invasion below 50 percent, but the risk has increased. Some fear Russia could take all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River, which runs through Kiev. Putin is more interested in political outcomes than holding new territory. He may instead make his point with less risk by taking the parts of Ukraine that Russia does not control east of the Donets River.
The administration says it still prefers diplomacy. In fact, it has not attempted diplomacy. It has refused to negotiate seriously over not adding Ukraine to NATO and refraining from large U.S. deployments in new NATO (i.e., the status quo).
Biden has failed to explain what U.S. interests exist in Ukraine to the American people or even the military rank-and-file, which his party thinks is full of racist hicks who need reeducation.
Bellicose Republicans have also failed to explain why it makes sense to risk a huge regional war with Russia, which isn’t Panama, Grenada, Libya, or Iraq. We are not Rome at the end of the first century A.D. or even the USA in 1991, but a heavily indebted nation in a competitive situation facing serious internal and external risks, especially China.
Hawks say that CCP boss Xi Jinping is watching Ukraine closely and will be more aggressive if the U.S. does not act. In reality, Xi couldn’t care less about Ukraine and would welcome the USA getting bogged down there.
Market Turbulence
The first two postings of Super Macro were about the risk of higher inflation and overpriced equities driven by loose monetary policy. They were ahead of their time, but not by much.
In the latest episode of Simon & Whiton, now in high def, Mark and I hit the markets and earnings season. We also discussed whether the Wall Street Journal news division will get away with going woke, and why Trump decided to give an interview to Nicaraguan Public Radio (NPR). Please take as look or give a listen.
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The New Mayor of NYC will never solve the crime issue until he either get's the DA recalled or the DA comes onboard and stops making/enforcing his own laws. Soros funded the campaigns of most large city Democrat seeking the DA position and that is paying off as crime mounts:
Alvin Bragg’s Threat to Democracy
Leftist prosecutors defy legislatures and take the law into their own hands.
By Peter Reinharz
We hear a lot these days about threats to democracy, but a real assault on the foundations of our republican form of government is under way: the refusal of executive branches to enforce laws passed by the people’s elected representatives. Exhibit A is the new Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg.
New York State’s Constitution, like the U.S. Constitution, divides government into three equal branches—legislative, executive and judicial—to ensure checks and balances that protect liberty and democratic self-government. New York’s Constitution requires that the state Legislature write and pass the laws, while the role of the executive branch is to carry out those laws as drafted.
Enter Mr. Bragg. As an elected district attorney, his job is the enforcement of the criminal laws passed by the Legislature. The law vests Mr. Bragg, like any executive, with a certain amount of discretion regarding enforcement. He can look at a defendant and decide that prosecution is unwarranted because the particular circumstances merit leniency. But this discretion is linked to the individual case before Mr. Bragg and his office. He can’t decide to ignore or rewrite those laws he doesn’t like.
But that’s what he’s done, for instance by proposing to treat all armed robberies that don’t result in serious bodily injury as misdemeanors. He has no authority to redefine a felony armed robbery, which New York law punishes by up to 25 years in state prison, as the equivalent of a petty theft with a maximum penalty of less than one year in jail. Yet Mr. Bragg has unilaterally decreed that a gunpoint robbery of a deli in Manhattan isn’t what the law says it is. Mr. Bragg presumes not merely to threaten democracy but to nullify it.
He is hardly the sole perpetrator of this constitutional revolution. Progressive district attorneys across the country have nullified statutes passed by state legislatures in the name of criminal-justice reform. The results of these actions have been well publicized. Prosecutors in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, St. Louis, Baltimore and Philadelphia have rejected their legislative directives, reducing enforcement even as crime soars.
Mayors in Seattle, Portland, Ore., and San Francisco, ignoring vagrancy laws, have likewise allowed autonomous zones and homeless encampments to flourish on public streets and parks throughout their cities. They have abandoned laws designed to protect citizens and their property.
New York City has a long history of executive indifference to enforcing the laws. Recall the Occupy Wall Street protest in lower Manhattan that allowed thousands of demonstrators to take up residence in Manhattan’s Zuccotti Park for months in 2011. Police finally removed them after Mayor Michael Bloomberg acceded to public pressure to enforce existing law.
Is there recourse? Yes, but Mr. Bragg is a duly elected city official, and his tenure can’t be vacated on a whim. Nevertheless, even though Mr. Bragg specifically ran on this unconstitutional platform, Manhattan voters lack the power to amend the constitution by the simple election of a lawless officer. The state Assembly and Senate should hold hearings to determine why Mr. Bragg and any other officials who similarly reject the enforcement of the laws should remain in office.
If the Legislature agrees with Mr. Bragg’s policies, it can rewrite the laws accordingly. But lawmaking is a power solely vested within the Legislature, and elected legislative representatives must uphold their constitutionally mandated role. If the Legislature finds that Mr. Bragg has usurped its role by illegitimately revising the penal code, and if it further finds that he refuses to follow his constitutional mandate to enforce the laws as written, then it can impeach him.
Should the Legislature fail this basic task, the New York Constitution also allows the governor to remove a sitting district attorney for cause. That’s an extreme measure that she should exercise with caution. But how can the governor support a chief law enforcement officer who refuses to abide by the state’s most fundamental law, its constitution?
When Mr. Bragg was sworn into office on Jan. 1, he took an oath to protect the constitutions of the United States and the state of New York. The question for the Legislature and the governor: Does that oath have any meaning?
Mr. Reinharz is a former chief prosecutor of New York City’s Juvenile Court and author of “Killer Kids, Bad Law.”
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