Middle East and Other Musings: Can It Happen Here? Stay Home. Statistics Regarding Israel! Manchin Pans.

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What if It Can Happen Here?

I scoffed at Sinclair Lewis, but I’ve had second thoughts since the Jan. 6 attack.

By William A. Galston

Through my adult life, I read books such as Philip Roth’s “The Plot Against America” and Sinclair Lewis’s “It Can’t Happen Here” with bemused interest. The counterfactuals were intriguing—what if an American version of Hitler had come to power?—but of no practical significance. I read Lewis’s title unironically: It really couldn’t happen here.

Over the past year, I’ve started to wonder. I’m torn between fear of complacency and fear of alarmism. Was the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol the result of a singular confluence of events or a harbinger of worse to come? Am I suffering from a failure of imagination or an excess of it?

For the first time, I’ve begun to understand the plight of German Jews in the late 1920s and early 1930s. Some concluded that this time was different and acted accordingly, often by leaving the country. But most could not take the worst case seriously, or even conceive of it. We’ve seen bad times before, they thought, and we’ve always managed to get through them. Surely our friends and neighbors won’t believe unscrupulous demagogues. We’re all good Germans, aren’t we?

I recognize the pitfalls of Weimar analogies, so let’s look at some current evidence that troubles me.

In the year since a mob tried to disrupt the certification of Joe Biden as the duly elected president of the United States, public opinion hasn’t budged. About 7 in 10 Republicans continue to deny that Mr. Biden was legitimately elected. Some 47% of Republicans describe the attack on Congress as an act of patriotism, and 56% say the attackers were “defending freedom.”

Forty percent of Republicans believe that violence against the government is sometimes justified, a view shared by 23% of Democrats and 41% of independents. Overall, support for the use of violence has risen to 34% from 10% in 1995 and 16% in 2010.

Some 68% of the American people have come to believe that the events of Jan. 6 represent an increasing danger of political violence, compared with 32% who regard it as an isolated incident, and 62% expect violence by the losing side in a future presidential election. A survey released on Jan. 4 found 83% of Americans are worried about the future of America’s democracy, and 71% say it’s weaker than it was four years ago. Overall, two-thirds of Americans regard U.S. democracy as “threatened,” compared with only one-third who describe it as “secure.”

On the legal front, the threat to the electoral system in some respects has intensified. In many states, GOP legislatures have moved to reduce the authority of secretaries of state and other officials charged with overseeing and certifying the vote count. A few lawmakers are asserting the legislatures’ alleged constitutional authority to set aside the popular vote and select their own slates of electors.

Equally threatening is Congress’s failure to reform the Electoral Count Act of 1887. That law was adopted in response to the presidential election of 1876, in which contested slates of electors from three states created a deadlock in the Electoral College, resolved only by a para-constitutional political deal. Contemporary legal analysts say the law is vague or ambiguous at various points and vulnerable to serious constitutional challenge.

Writing last month in National Review, Benjamin Ginsberg, a veteran Republican election lawyer, urged his party’s leaders to support an update of the ECA before it’s too late. A rewrite, he said, should clarify the role of the vice president, the congressional process for deciding between competing slates of electors from the same state, and grounds for congressional objections to electors. The new bill also should answer some questions: Is a “majority” of the Electoral College all 538 electors or only those present and voting? Can a state hold an election after Election Day if it claims that the results were tainted? In cases of disagreement, who is the state’s “executive” with the power to certify its slate of electors? The list goes on.

The country’s antiquated electoral laws and ramshackle voting procedures increase the chances of violence in the next close presidential election. And the next election likely will be close. In the nine presidential elections since 1988, the winner has prevailed by less than 8 percentage points—a record matched only by contests between the end of the Civil War and the start of the 20th century. We are closely divided as well as deeply divided, the worst scenario for effective governance in the Madisonian constitutional system.

Although we know how to reduce the chances of a contested election in 2024, it is far from clear that the political parties can agree on the necessary steps. If not, the people’s fears could become a reality, and political violence could deal constitutional democracy in America a fatal blow.

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It is one thing to move your body from the north to the south but if you bring the same northern liberal mind set immigrants moving south will destroy what we have and what they left. My advice is stay home.

Bye-bye, Bay State

by Jeff Jacoby

The Boston Globe

A FRIEND of mine who lived for many years on the North Shore of Massachusetts relocated to Kentucky in 2018 and has rejoiced ever since that it was among the best decisions he ever made. Compared to the Bay State, he reports, the housing where he lives now is more affordable, the taxes are lower, the winters are milder, the people are friendlier, and the politics are more congenial. Not even the tornadoes that tore up western Kentucky last month have dampened his satisfaction in no longer having to put up with all the things that he found so irksome about life in Massachusetts.

My friend's experience isn't anomalous. Each year, more people leave Massachusetts for other states than move to Massachusetts from other states. According to the Census Bureau, between April 2020 and July 2021, the population of Massachusetts shrank by more than 45,000. Only three other, much more populous, states — California, New York, and Illinois — experienced a greater net outflow of residents.

When it comes to domestic migration — the movement of people within the United States — Massachusetts has been on the losing team for quite a while. Back in 2003, the Donahue Institute at the University of Massachusetts noted with concern that over the previous 12 years, Massachusetts had experienced a net loss of more than 213,000 people (not including foreign immigrants). The out-migration hasn't stopped. While the influx of people moving into Massachusetts from elsewhere in the United States has been steady, the Boston Business Journal observed in 2020, the tide of those moving out has swelled by 24 percent. And where are they going? The numbers fluctuate from year to year, but the Journal identified Florida and New Hampshire as the two "top states draining Massachusetts of the most residents."

Real-world evidence confirms that far more people relocate from Massachusetts to Florida or New Hampshire than the other way around.

Consider U-Haul's rental rates. To rent a 26-foot truck for a one-way move from Boston to Orlando this month will cost you $5,325, but the rate is just $887 for a move from Orlando to Boston. Why the steep disparity? Because the demand for one-way trucks from Boston to Florida is very high, while demand for trucks going in the other direction is very low.

The imbalance shows up even for destinations as close as Massachusetts and New Hampshire. U-Haul's rate to rent a truck from Boston to Manchester is $473. But it's just $208 if you're driving from Manchester to Boston.

To be sure, the choices Americans make about where to live and work are affected by all kinds of individual considerations — school, work, weather, family, cost of living. But the persistent attraction of Florida and New Hampshire also reflects the fact that they offer something Massachusetts doesn't: Could it be that neither imposes an income tax? When the states are ranked by overall tax burden, Florida and New Hampshire are among the least onerous. That can't be said about Massachusetts. Taxes are not the only reason that people pull up stakes and move, of course. But the steady (and costly) flow of Massachusetts residents to the Granite and Sunshine states speaks for itself.

When it comes to domestic migration — the movement of people within the United States — Massachusetts has been on the losing team for quite a while.

Economist Mark Perry, who analyzes national domestic migration patterns, shows that on a range of economic and political measures, the Top 10 "inbound" states (currently Florida, Texas, Arizona, North and South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Idaho, Utah, and Nevada) differ significantly from the Top 10 "outbound" states (California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Louisiana, Maryland, Hawaii, Minnesota, and Michigan). By and large, inbound states have lower taxes, Republican governments, cheaper energy, greater fiscal stability, and a more pro-business environment. Outbound states are more likely to lean the other way.

Admittedly these are only broad patterns, and no state in either category fits the description precisely. And, as noted, every family's decision to move from one state to another is shaped by personal circumstances. But the data keep reinforcing the patterns. "There is empirical evidence that Americans and businesses 'vote with their feet' when they relocate from one state to another," writes Perry. "The evidence suggests that Americans are moving from blue states that are more economically stagnant . . . to fiscally sound red states that are more economically vibrant."

Massachusetts certainly has its charms and advantages; countless Bay Staters would never consider moving anywhere else. But plenty of their neighbors feel differently. Year in, year out, tens of thousands of Massachusetts residents leave for good, and their numbers aren't replenished by newcomers from other states. My friend in Kentucky is happy he left, and he's clearly not alone.

(Jeff Jacoby is a columnist for The Boston Globe).

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Israel Statistics

Geography:
Israel is only 1/6 of 1% of the landmass
of the Middle East .

Israel is roughly half the size of Lake Michigan .

The Sea of Galilee , at 695 ft. below sea level,
is the lowest freshwater lake in the world.

The Dead Sea is the lowest surface point on earth,
at about 1,373 feet below sea level.

Israel is the only nation in the world that entered
the 21st century with a net gain in its number of trees.

Jericho is the oldest continuously inhabited town in the world.

The Mount of Olives in Jerusalem is the oldest,
continually used cemetery in the world.

Demographics:
Israel 's population is half the size of Metro New York City .

Israel has only 2% of the population of the Middle East .

Israel has the highest ratio of university degrees
per capita in the world.

Israel produces more scientific papers per capita than any other nation in the world - by a large margin.

Israel has the highest number of scientists and technicians per capita in the world - by a large margin.

Israel has the highest number of engineers per capita in the world.

Israel has the highest number of PhD's per capita in the world.

Israel has the highest number of physicians per capita in the world.

Israel has the largest percentage of its workforce employed in technical professions in the world.

Israel is the largest immigrant-absorbing nation in
the world, per capita.

Israel is the only country in the Middle East where the
Christian population has grown over the last 50 years.

Israel is the only country in the Middle East where
Christians, Muslims and Jews are all free to vote.

Israel is the only country in the Middle East where
women enjoy full political rights.

Economics:
Israel has the largest number of startup companies
per capita in the world.

Israel is the world's largest wholesale diamond center,
finally surpassing Antwerp in the 1970's.

Most of the cut & polished diamonds in the world come from Israel .

Israel has the largest number of NASDAQ listed
companies outside of the US and Canada .

Israel was the first country to have a free trade
agreement with the United States .

Apart from the Silicon Valley, Israel has the highest
concentration of hi-tech companies in the world.

The cell phone was developed in Israel at Motorola's largest development center.

The Voice Mail technology was developed in Israel .
In the early 80's,

IBM chose an Israeli-designed computer chip as the brains for its first personal computers.

The first anti-virus software for computers was developed in Israel in 1979.

Most of the Windows NT and XP operating systems were developed in Israel by Microsoft.

Both the Pentium-4 and Centrino processors were entirely designed, developed and produced in Israel .

The Pentium MMX Chip technology was designed in Israel at Intel.

Israel has the highest number of home computers per capita in the world.

The technology

Israel was the first Middle Eastern country to launch a satellite, the Ofek 1, on September 19, 1988.

Culture:
Hebrew is the only case of a dead national language being revived in all of world history.

Hebrew had not been spoken as a native tongue by anyone for centuries.

Today it is the native tongue of millions of people.

Israel has more museums per capita than any other nation in the world.

Israel has more orchestras per capita than any other nation in the world.

Israel publishes more books per capita than any other nation in the world.

Israel publishes more books translated from other languages than any other nation in the world.

Israel reads more books per capita than any other nation in the world.

The most independent and free Arabic press in the Middle East is in Israel .

Military/Security:
Israel has the largest fleet of F-16 aircraft outside of the US .
Israel has the world's most impenetrable airline security.

Israel spends more money per capita on its own protection than any country in the world. (unfortunately...)
Other
Israel's dairy cows are the most productive dairy cows in the world.
They average 25,432 pounds of milk per cow per year, compared to just18,747 pounds from American cows; 17,085 from Canadian cows;
13,778 from European Union cows;
10,207 from Australian cows;
and 6,600 from Chinese cows.

Israel has more in-vitro fertilization per capita than anywhere in the world, and it's free.
Israelis, per capita, are the world's biggest consumers of fruits and vegetables.
Of the 175 UN Security Council resolutions passed before 1990, 97 were directed against Israel . (that sucks... big time)

Well, another sucky one:

Of the 690 UN General Assembly resolutions voted on after 1990, 429 were directed against Israel .