Ross continues his ranting
Just because it is a new year is no reason to think anything has changed. The same serious issues exist and are just getting worse. The good news is everything is turning around. The soccer moms are in action against school boards and CRT and other ideology that harms kids. The medical data is now very clear, remote learning is miserable failure and did vastly more harm than Covid ever could. They are rising against the unions. Fauci has lost all credibility as has Biden and the CDC. VA was the major turn and began a wave to come. Inflation and crime have driven even liberals to the break point, where even the mayor of San Fran is reversing course. Defund the police is over. A cop is now mayor of NYC. BBB is defeated as is the false voting bill. The radicals lost in Congress, thanks to Manchin. They way over played their hands. The public is fed up with hearing they are all racists and they have to let minorities get Covid treatment in NY but they cannot get it if they are white. Mandates was the last straw. Everyone now recognizes that the main stream press has zero credibility and they often lie. We are all done with the massive flood across the border that we all have to pay for. The voters have had it and intend to take back America. Have faith, the reverse is underway.
I previously described the basic economic theory followed by the White House and the Dems as outlined in an email to me from their top economic consultant. Ramp up fiscal spending, and continue Fed ultra- low rates and monetizing the deficit, and that will inflate asset values which will drive more investment, which will create more jobs and more tax revenue to pay for all the increased spending. That is exactly what they have been doing, but they forgot to recognize the creation of inflation that would occur, and the decline in real wages. They assumed they could pass BBB and just lie and keep the false narrative going. They assume the Fed will not raise rates a lot. and based on Modern Monetary Theory-MMT- they assume the amount of government debt makes no difference. They also assumed they can claim the rich don't pay their fair share and just raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations, and the mass of voters who pay no, or little, tax would say great idea. That has all blown up on them now. We have near record inflation, real wages declining, the debt skyrocketing, and no way to pay for it, and asset bubbles which is leading to housing prices being unaffordable to low and lower middle income workers. They have created the worst scenario possible. It is why they are scrambling to pass something, and to use executive powers to implement their plans. None of that is going to work and save them. Larry Summers, former Obama Treasury Secretary, says we now have the most irresponsible fiscal and monetary policy in history.
They are trying to pack the Fed senior leaders and the FMOC with left wing members, and a vice chair who will vote to keep rates low, and to implement massive new regulations on banks. The Trump appointed chair of the FDIC just resigned because she could not continue to work with the Biden appointed other members of the board who were blatantly undermining her authority. If the appointed people for the Fed and other agency heads get confirmed, the banking industry and non-bank lenders are in for a terrible few years, and there will be a major shift to determine who can borrow based on the perceived "climate risk". Loans will also be required to be made to minority borrowers in a replay of the subprime lending days in the name of "equity". The banking functions will become a government dominated mess, and the allocation of capital will get driven by falsely premised government mandates instead of free market underwriting and lending. This will end badly. The left never read any history and they just continue to make the same mistakes over again. There will be a massive misallocation of capital investment, both debt and equity as these ideology driven rules take effect. The only hope is that Republicans really do sweep massively in 22 and pass laws to try to stop this. It should be noted that the White House consultant did admit to me that there is a chance of a real recession by Q3. Unfortunately the Fed appointees will likely get approved.
Here is the averaging of the opinions of a small group of very high level successful money managers and investment pros. Market range for year-+10% to -20% with some down 25%, near term market generally up or flat, market for year generally flat to down with a couple saying up a little, the Fed will raise 3 times and possibly 4, with the same in 23, ten year will end year at 2.25%-2.5%, oil will move up to around $80 with some thinking $90-over $100 could happen. There is some belief the market could drop quickly sometime in 2022 by 20%, or maybe more due to some as yet unknown event. Everyone predicts a massive Republican sweep in November, and some reversal of the insanity by mid-2023. Most had recession at no more than 10% probability. Caveat- these are just guesses with no certainty to any of it. Nobody expects the SPX to be up more than 10%, but everyone believes it could go down 10% -20%, or more, and when it goes, it will go fast when some unknown event, or an unexpected rate move up by the Fed is the trigger. Recovery from the down will not likely be the same V as we saw in April 2020. My views are up 10%-down 25%, generally down for the year, maybe a lot, I agree something will trigger a sudden fast decline, and there will not be the same as the recent fast recovery we have seen for the past two years short lived downturns, the Fed will raise at least 3 times and may raise by 50 BP in Q3, will raise more in 2023, ten year could be at 2.75%- 3% by year end, but I forecast 2% by end of 2022 so my rate forecast is worthless, oil $80-85. I am the most pessimistic of this group, and I am the only one who is not a money manager or professional investor, so my view is more based on gut instincts than theirs, although they would all tell you off the record they really have no idea, and they are just guessing at this point. Nobody is highly optimistic about the market. All believe when the Fed raises rates, stock prices, at some point, retreat. Once again, a strategy based on fundamentals won. Chasing IPO's, crypto, or meme stocks, or what is an "in" stock is not the winning strategy over time. One of the major investors who is a fundamental trader /investor not playing in crypto, had a return of 34.9% --that should tell you what strategy works.
Even though TESLA ran way up, it is even more ridiculously over-valued, and I still believe it will get brought back down as the brands hit the market in full. I do think Musk may be the smartest guy on the planet.
The teachers unions are again pushing not working even though every expert and parent knows how much damage the teachers did to the kids last year when they refused to work in person. We will see how many mayors and governors tell the unions they are harming the kids and school is open. So far Biden is saying the right things on this. Teachers should be fired if they don't work in person. Regan air traffic controllers.
CA is the center of climate change mania so they changed the rate paid to homeowners who sell excess power to the grid and lowered it so that solar on homes no longer are the good economic deal it had been. Turns out the rate they had been paying was so high that non-solar homes had to pay higher utility bills to make up the cost of the payments for the excess solar generated power. So low income homes with no solar paid extra for electricity. One more glaring example of how the climate nuts and radicals never bother to understand what the impacts are of what they are doing. Just like the White House and congressional Dems. Shut down oil production and who pays--low income homeowners and workers who can least afford higher heating and gas costs. Raise corporate taxes and it comes out of raises for the lower income workers. There is no possible way there can be enough electric power generation to meet the Biden demands for more EV's. The grid cannot provide even close to that much power. Has anyone asked what would happen if in 2035 there are millions of EV's in TX and they have another massive power outage. Or maybe there is another Sandy and large sections of NJ are out of power for days. All the cars and trucks will be dead including those of cops and EMT. Maybe we are all supposed to also buy a generator for those occasions so our cars will run. There is no end to the ignorance.
Look at geopolitics since Biden took over and brought back the exact same Obama foreign policy team that created so many problems. Now we have Russia, China and Iran making military threats and intimidation since Afghanistan. They know the EU is very weak and will always defer to appeasement. They know Biden will roll over if they make threats. The only one missing is N Korea at the moment.
Putin is bluffing. He puts out ridiculous demands knowing the west will say no, but then he will demand something less and act like he gave in. Classic negotiating strategy I saw all too often in deals. He threatened if the west imposes harsh sanctions, Russia will cut all ties and negotiations. Biden should have said -go right ahead, and we will impose even worse sanctions, and your economy will collapse in weeks. If Russia cannot sell oil and gas they have no economy. Biden does not have the balls to call Putin's bluff. Putin is using migrants fed in through Belarus to try to create problems in Poland, Lithuania, and other border nations. Unfortunately Putin knows Germany is so dependent now on Russian gas that they cannot afford for the gas to be turned off. Germany just shut down three of its last 6 nuke power plants making them even more dependent on Russian gas, and coal fired power plants. One more example of the stupidity of the whole climate change rush to actions which have serious bad consequences in other areas. Everyone is so anxious to appear climate conforming that they do not think through what they are doing beyond the next press release. The whole world has lost its collective mind over climate change. Now it already turns out that the UK and others have already walked back their "commitments" made in Glasgow as they realize the real cost to their economies. And now the EPA has raised the gas milage requirements to so high a level that car companies will be forced to sell more EV's than they can sell just to meet the standards. As the WSJ put it, Biden screwed the car companies and mislead them. That is what they get for being lemmings chasing being woke.
The phone companies spent $70 billion to buy the spectrum for 5G and several years building out their systems. Everything was fully pubic and investigated for years. Other countries already have their 5G systems activated with no issues. And now at the last second the FAA decides 5G is too dangerous to turn on. This is nuts. The rest of the world will have 5G but not America due to some bureaucrat making a unsupported decision.
The reason case numbers in S Africa declines so much is they stopped testing on a large scale because they did not have the money and staff to keep up. It is true that hospitalizations are not rising and deaths are minimal from Omicron. Given the massive spread it is likely we and much of the world now has immunity, or soon will.
The Dems plan to vote on suspending the filibuster for the voting rights bill. So why have any filibuster rule if it can be suspended anytime the party in power feels like it. The Dems should have learned from Harry Reid changing the rules on confirming judges, that the other party eventually gets into power. I am not a constitutional expert, but the constitution does say states decide the method of selecting their electors, or words to that effect. It would seem the entire bill is probably unconstitutional as it takes away all powers from the states on voting in federal elections, and changes the basics of a system that has essentially been in place since our founding. It is the ultimate corrupt power grab, and it is incredible that all Dems other than Manchin and maybe Sinema are ready to go along. It is not really different than Trump trying to stop the certification of the election. As I have said before, why elect anyone to Congress if all they do is be a puppet for the party leaders instead of representing their constituents. In the end it comes down to campaign funding and committee assignments from the speaker and the majority leader. And they wonder why the voters have no faith anymore in the federal government.
Keep in mind Biden is president for 3 more years -if he can remain coherent that long- so he can do a lot of damage in that time -Kamala would be far worse if she takes over. We are not out of the woods until Jan 2023when Republicans take back Congress.
Durham’s Investigation: Fearless Predictions for 2022
While the seemingly slow pace of Special Counsel John Durham’s “Russiagate” investigation is frustrating to many, it appears that conditions are ripe for a slew of indictments in 2022, holding to account both FBI personnel and a number of other actors connected to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, possibly including the Clinton campaign itself.
Although grand jury proceedings are kept confidential, COVID restrictions likely caused both its sessions to be postponed and its witnesses to be temporarily excused from appearing. These delays were inevitable and certainly not Durham’s fault.
One strikingly ironic result of the partisan Mueller investigation was that its one-sided focus ignored any attempt to ferret out anti-Trump crimes dealing with “Russian Collusion.” Had it done so, a subsequent investigation, such as Durham’s, might have been foreclosed. In any case, Mueller’s investigation delayed the start of Durham’s.
Durham is scrupulously ethical and does not leak to a thirsty public. That is a good thing, because the partisan Attorney General Merrick Garland would like nothing better than a “good cause” excuse to fire Durham for violating Department of Justice policies. Durham’s silence, though, has frustrated curious citizens.
But recent indictments do tell us something about the focus of Durham’s probe, when viewed alongside other publicly available information such as the Report of FBI Inspector General Michael Horowitz on FBI FISA abuse.
For instance, Durham in the Igor Danchenko indictment does not mention, as does Horowitz in his report, that in his January 24-26, 2017, interview with the FBI, Danchenko said his Steele dossier claims were mainly gossip, rumor, and bar talk. After this interview, for the next year and a half, the FBI told the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) that it found Danchenko truthful and cooperative, a claim repeated to the Senate. But what the FBI did not tell FISC or the Senate was that Danchenko was truthful and cooperative about the Steele dossier’s being untruthful speculation and jest “over beers.” In short, the central thrust of the FISA application was without factual basis.
Accordingly, any FBI agent who knew of Danchenko’s interview and participated in either of the two subsequent FISA renewal applications or the Senate testimony has potential criminal culpability. The Danchenko interview thus places agents Stephen Somma, Joe Pientka, Peter Strzok, Bill Priestap, Lisa Page, Andrew McCabe, and others in potential jeopardy.
What role FBI General Counsel James Baker played, and what knowledge FBI Director James Comey can be proven to have had, are unknown.
This same analysis can be applied to the FBI chain of command regarding other misstatements or material omissions regarding, for just one example, the failure to disclose Steele’s affiliation with the Clinton campaign. Horowitz has itemized 17 separate such scenarios.
We know that the FBI did not disclose the past cooperation of Carter Page, who was falsely accused of being a Russian agent, and that failure to disclose could be a basis for culpability of the same chain. Moreover, FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith altered a CIA email about Carter Page to submit with the fourth warrant application, for which he was indicted. But who else knew of Clinesmith’s actions? Clinesmith is likely cooperating and can name names.
What about Comey? He will claim lack of knowledge about just about everything but for his name, rank, and serial number. Indeed, as to CIA’s referral of an investigative lead on September 7, 2016 suggesting a Russian disinformation plot, Comey testified that this dramatic revelation “doesn’t ring a bell.”
While Comey can perhaps escape revealing much of his guilty knowledge, he cannot credibly deny the July 28, 2016 Oval Office briefing by then CIA Director John Brennan reporting on a possible Russian disinformation plot. This may be the only undisclosed knowledge material to the case that Durham can prove the slippery Comey possessed. If Comey credibly claims that it was not his job to closely “flyspeck” each application, however, he may escape liability.
Now, to the Clinton side of the investigation. A recent Durham court filing noted that Hillary’s campaign manager Robby Mook, her communications director Jennifer Palmieri, and advisor Jake Sullivan were at least witnesses in the scheme involving lawyer Michael Sussman to sell the FBI the false story of an “Alfa Bank server” colluding with the Trump campaign. But Durham has not given us as a hint as to whether any of these three knew that the Alfa Bank claim was the “red herring” other conspirators acknowledged among themselves, which knowledge we await with bated breath.
Then there is the chain from Sussman to his law partner Marc Elias (referred to in the indictment as “Campaign Lawyer-1”), who in turn advised the Clinton campaign, including, perhaps, Hillary Clinton herself—though to what extent is unknown. Elias may thus be a person of interest, but going beyond him may be difficult.
Clinton ally Rodney Joffe, a cybersecurity expert referred to in the indictments as “Tech Executive-1,” at least two researchers delving into non-public data inappropriately, as well as principals and agents of Glenn Simpson’s Fusion GPS, are all possible targets regarding the Alfa Bank canard, along with the Clinton campaign itself.
We know only of the Alfa-Bank hoax from the Sussman indictment, but can infer there are likely other false stories which Clinton aides discussed. For instance, who discussed the false story of Trump lawyer Michael Cohen traveling to Prague to collude with Russia, other than Danchenko and possibly friend Olga Galkina? Who knew that this false story was to be fed to the FBI?
Early in his investigation, Durham reviewed a deposition of the supposed “Russian-connected” Professor Joseph Mifsud, about his revelation to George Papadopoulos of Russian possession of harmful Clinton emails, which in turn began the opening of the FBI “Crossfire Hurricane” investigation.
This counterintelligence investigation was initiated on a false premise if FBI agents knew Mifsud was a Western Intelligence agent provocateur, fabricating the Russian email possession story out of whole cloth. One may infer that high FBI counterintelligence officials Bill Priestap and Peter Strzok knew of this false predication. But it is likely not a crime if FBI agents did not lie to others about Mifsud. Did agents lie to Horowitz or did they reveal in confidence Mifsud’s Western intelligence connection?
Similarly, if any FBI agents were conferring with Sergei Millian as an informer, wouldn’t these agents know that the Steele dossier was false in its implication of Millian? If so, they seemingly concealed this material fact from FISC.
The Mueller team, assisted by the FBI agents assigned to it, prepared a sentencing memorandum for the court in the prosecution of George Papadopoulos, strongly implying that Mifsud was likely a Russian agent, which at least some FBI agents knew to be false. Unless the court was confidentially advised of the truth, there may be grounds for obstruction of justice and false statements.
In short, while there are many possible targets, as described above, only lower subjects on the totem pole will be strongly tempted to point to the culpability of higher-ups, with Clinesmith being a prime example.
In Watergate, the Nixon White House was excoriated, and rightly so, for hinting at executive clemency for the burglars. Similarly, suggestions of pardon by the Biden White House are not unlikely, but also difficult to prove. So don’t expect indictment of the big fish in either the Biden or Clinton camps.
Nevertheless, the New Year should prove very busy and productive for John Durham.
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Lapid talks Iran, regional issues with Macron
“The conversation dealt with regional challenges, the nuclear talks and Israel’s demand to put pressure on Iran,” said the Foreign Ministry
(January 9, 2022 / JNS) Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid held a conversation on Saturday evening with French President Emmanuel Macron. Among the issues discussed was the ongoing nuclear talks in Vienna surrounding a possible return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, according to the Foreign Ministry.
“The conversation dealt with regional challenges, the nuclear talks and Israel’s demand to put pressure on Iran,” the ministry said in a statement.
Their conversation builds on Lapid’s visit to Paris on Nov. 30, 2021, in which the Israeli foreign minister said that only a credible military threat would stop Iran from continuing its race to a nuclear weapon.
The two also discussed relations between Israel and the European Union, with Lapid congratulating Macron on France’s assumption of the presidency of the Council of the European Union (E.U.), the statement said.
Lapid stressed the importance of strengthening ties between Israel and the E.U. Macron said he remains committed to Israel’s security and places importance on the relationship between the two countries.
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A black police officer tells it as he sees and believes it therefore, he must be a racist. Since I am in total agreement I must e a racist as well.
This week on the Fair for All Substack, we published a new FAIR Advisor Spotlight profile by Sophie Lee of filmmaker Eli Steele. Eli Steele, much like his father Shelby Steele, is known for challenging popular narratives about race in America, and the way they impact our everyday decisions and personal relationships.
In 2020, during a year of high racial unrest, Eli and his father released What Killed Michael Brown, a documentary film examining Brown’s death and the racial tensions that arose around it.
The film, a collaborative project between Eli Steele and his father, Shelby Steele, took a critical look at the narrative brought forward by progressives and Black Lives Matter activists. Though Steele is himself a descendant of slaves and Holocaust survivors, the idea that black American life today is largely shaped by oppressive, systematic forces is one that Steele takes to task.
The film was immediately banned by Amazon Prime, citing “quality control” concerns. Though the documentary has garnered both praise and scorn, Steele is satisfied that it has spurred healthy debate and caused some to question the veracity of many dominant narratives driven more by emotion than facts.
Read the full article here.
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