Caveat emptor: https://youtu.be/iWpwDbEOtN8
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Democrats Try to Delegitimize Everything They Don’t Like
Donald Trump was delegitimizing the election in 2016 by suggesting it might be rigged if he should lose. The national press went into overtime outrage about it. But Trump won.
So the media and Democrats have been working hard ever since to claim the election was stolen.
In Georgia, Stacy Abrams refuses to accept she was beaten. That race too is illegitimate despite it being a lawfully conducted election.
The Senate must be delegitimized because Wyoming has the same number of votes as California...
Read More...
And:
Re-introducing the tyranny of democracy. Overturning genius by greedy idiots. (See 1 below.)
And:
Re-introducing the tyranny of democracy. Overturning genius by greedy idiots. (See 1 below.)
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More about Trump's peace plan and Israel will not tolerate assassinations to go unrewarded with a lethal response. (See 2 and 2a below.)
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In my most recent memo I wrote about Europe wakening to the threat from China. Subsequently I read this op ed. (See 3 below.)
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More Ross Rants. (See 4 below.)
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Trump strikes out again when it comes to his comments about McCain. I never cared for McCain. Always thought he was a maverick and certainly he was contentious but what does Trump gain in terms of favor-ability by attacking a man who served his country is now in his grave?
It speaks more about Trump's insecurity and over reach. He makes it increasingly difficult for those to separate his accomplishments from his prickly personality and, in the long run, it costs him votes and possibly a second term.
I caught the comments of an old New Hampshire codger today who was favorably disposed towards BETO because he wanted a president who was not old and crusty, He liked the fact that BETO was upbeat and optimistic. Trump actually is upbeat and optimistic and even humorous and clever at times then he dumps in the punch bowl.
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DickTrump strikes out again when it comes to his comments about McCain. I never cared for McCain. Always thought he was a maverick and certainly he was contentious but what does Trump gain in terms of favor-ability by attacking a man who served his country is now in his grave?
It speaks more about Trump's insecurity and over reach. He makes it increasingly difficult for those to separate his accomplishments from his prickly personality and, in the long run, it costs him votes and possibly a second term.
I caught the comments of an old New Hampshire codger today who was favorably disposed towards BETO because he wanted a president who was not old and crusty, He liked the fact that BETO was upbeat and optimistic. Trump actually is upbeat and optimistic and even humorous and clever at times then he dumps in the punch bowl.
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1) Targeting the Electoral College
Democrats tee up another constitutional norm for a rewrite.
Last week we wrote about Democratic ambitions to pack the Supreme Court. This week the Electoral College is on the chopping block as Senator Elizabeth Warren comes out in favor of its abolition, Beto O’Rourke makes sympathetic noises and Colorado’s Democratic Governor signs a bill adding his state to the “National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.” Scrapping the system the U.S. has used to select Presidents since its founding will likely soon be the Democrats’ default position.
Like the Supreme Court, the Electoral College sometimes frustrates the will of political majorities. That makes it an easy target in this populist age. But while “majority rules” has always been an appealing slogan, it’s an insufficient principle for structuring an electoral system in the U.S.
Presidential elections often do not produce popular majorities. In 2016 neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump won 50%. “Plurality rules” doesn’t have the same ring to it. In the absence of the Electoral College, the winner’s vote share would likely be significantly smaller than is common today. Third-party candidates who can’t realistically win a majority in any state would have a greater incentive to enter the race.
Democrats are upset that Mr. Trump is President with 46% of the vote to Ms. Clinton’s 48%. What if a Republican was elected with a third of the vote in an election featuring five formidable third-party candidates? A free-for-all plebiscite would hurt the system’s legitimacy. The Electoral College helps narrow the field to two serious contenders, as voters decide not to waste their vote on candidates who have no chance to win.
The founders designed the Electoral College to help ensure that states with diverse preferences could cohere under a single federal government. Anyone who thinks this concern is irrelevant today hasn’t been paying attention to the current polarization in American politics. The Electoral College helps check polarization by forcing presidential candidates to campaign in competitive states across the country, instead of spending all their time trying to motivate turnout in populous partisan strongholds.
In a popular-vote contest in 2020, for example, the Democratic candidate might ignore the economically dislocated areas that Mr. Trump won and focus on urban centers along the coasts. Mr. Trump might campaign more in upstate New York or Texas but ignore urban voters.
The Electoral College also contributes to political stability by delegating vote-counting to the states and thus delivering with rare exceptions a faster result. The uncertainty arising from a nationwide recount for President amid myriad regional irregularities—as happened in North Carolina and Florida in 2018—would make Florida 2000 look tame.
The Electoral College abolitionists are unlikely to get a supermajority of three-fourths of states to agree to pass a constitutional amendment. The greater danger is the popular vote compact that Colorado has joined, which requires signatories to ignore their voters and grant their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner. It goes into effect once states representing 270 electoral votes have signed. If the governors of New Mexico and Delaware sign their states’ bills as expected, then 14 states and the District of Columbia with 189 votes will have signed up. A Democratic sweep at the state level could one day get to 270.
The pact is likely unconstitutional. But if it succeeded it would inject more corrosive uncertainty into American elections in pursuit of a hyper-populist system that goes against the structure of the Constitution that has protected liberty for 230 years.
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By TOVAH LAZAROFF
The terrorist, identified as Omar Abu Lila, stole a vehicle and drove to the nearby Gitai Avishar junction on Sunday, where he started shooting.
The IDF has killed the Palestinian terrorist who carried out the shooting spree near the West Bank city of Ariel on Sunday, killing two Israelis and severely injuring one.
Late Tuesday night, the IDF closed in on Omar Abu Lila, 19, in the Palestinian village of Abwain, near Ramallah.
Abu Lila shot the IDF during his attempted arrest. He was killed in an exchange of fire. No soldiers were reported to be injured during the incident.
The security operation was carried out by the Shin Bet, the IDF and the Yamam special unit. Special technology was used to locate and identify him.
The shootout in Abwain comes after an intense two day manhunt for the Palestinian terrorist, identified as Omar Abu Lila. On Sunday he shot at Israelis at both the Ariel Junction and the Gitai Avishar junction and fled the scene.
Late Tuesday night, the IDF closed in on Omar Abu Lila, 19, in the Palestinian village of Abwain, near Ramallah.
Abu Lila shot the IDF during his attempted arrest. He was killed in an exchange of fire. No soldiers were reported to be injured during the incident.
The security operation was carried out by the Shin Bet, the IDF and the Yamam special unit. Special technology was used to locate and identify him.
The shootout in Abwain comes after an intense two day manhunt for the Palestinian terrorist, identified as Omar Abu Lila. On Sunday he shot at Israelis at both the Ariel Junction and the Gitai Avishar junction and fled the scene.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked the security forces for their efforts in locating and finding the terrorist, "Israel long arm can reach anyone who tries to harm its citizens."
Tamar Ettinger, whose husband Ahiad was killed in Sunday's attack, also thanked the security forces for their swift work and called for the terrorists family to be exiled.
Abu Lila, stole a vehicle and drove to the nearby Gitai Avishar junction on Sunday, where he started shooting.
One civilian, Rabbi Ahiad Ettinger, 47 and father of 12, was severely injured when trying to stop Abu Lila and succumbed to his wounds on Monday.
Just before Ettinger was shot, he was able to recognize that he was in the middle of an attack, drew his gun and shot at the terrorist a number of times, his son-in-law Zeev Goldstein said.
Gal Keidan, 19, a soldier guarding the Ariel junction was killed at the scene and buried in his hometown of Beersheba on Monday morning.
Another soldier, identified as Alexander Dvorsky, a young immigrant from Moldova, was injured but is reported to be out of immediate mortal danger.
This is a developing story.
Anna Ahronheim contributed to this report.
2a) Kushner peace plan once urged huge Palestinian-Jordanian-Saudi land swap — book
Vicky Ward writes that Trump was reluctant to meet Netanyahu at first, but the two forged a close bond in 2016 as the PM delivered a 2-hour ‘masterclass’ to the candidate
WASHINGTON – Jared Kushner’s Middle East peace plan once included a massive land swap proposal in which the Palestinians would get Jordanian land and Jordan would get Saudi Arabian land, according to a new book by an investigative journalist released Tuesday.
In an explosive chapter detailing US President Donald Trump’s first foreign trip — in which he visited Saudi Arabia, Israel and the Vatican — British-born author Vicky Ward wrote that Saudi Arabia was meant to play a critical role in Kushner’s Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts, including through relinquishing its own territory and helping to revive Gaza.
“Saudi Arabia was… the key to Kushner’s burgeoning Middle East peace plan,” the book says. “What Kushner wanted, according to multiple people who saw drafts of the plan, was for the Saudis and Emiratis to provide economic assistance to the Palestinians. There were plans for an oil pipeline from Saudi Arabia to Gaza, where refineries and a shipping terminal could be built. The profits would create desalination plants, where Palestinians could find work, addressing the high unemployment rate.
“The plan also entailed land swaps, so that Jordan would give land to the Palestinian territories. In return, Jordan would get land from Saudi Arabia, and that country would get back two Red Sea islands it gave Egypt to administer in 1950.”
The book did not say whether the land swap scheme is still in the peace plan, which the administration says will not be rolled out until sometime after the Israeli election on April 9, but the president’s special envoy for Mideast peace Jason Greenblatt tweeted that “no one who has seen the plan would spread misinformation like that. Whoever made these claims has bad info.”
After Trump became president, he tasked Kushner and Greenblatt with leading the diplomatic efforts to forge an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.
The revelation is contained in the book, “Kushner, Inc.: Greed. Ambition. Corruption. The Extraordinary Story of Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump,” which was published Tuesday and challenges the view that the president’s daughter Ivanka Trump and son-in-law Kushner are moderating influences in Trump’s orbit.
In reality, Ward asserts, they’ve been fueling the chaos for which the White House has become notorious.
They’ve made fierce enemies with other White House officials, such as former adviser Steve Bannon, former economic adviser Gary Cohn and former secretary of state Rex Tillerson, the book says, adding that Kushner urged Trump to fire the ex-head of the FBI James Comey, a step that stunned Washington and ultimately led to the Robert Mueller investigation.
While Kushner is widely regarded as influential across a range of issues in the Trump White House, “Kushner, Inc.” chronicles his involvement with the Israel portfolio going back to the campaign, when he helped draft then-candidate Trump’s speech to the 2016 AIPAC Policy Conference.
“Trump turned to him for help with his March 2016 speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee,” the book says. It then claims that “Kushner got help from Israeli Ambassador to the US Ron Dermer.”
Kushner’s family’s relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made him a useful conduit between the campaign and Jerusalem, Ward asserts.
She writes that Trump was initially “reluctant” to meet with the Israeli premier. “He and Bibi had a history,” Bannon told Ward, using the prime minister’s nickname. “Two alpha males. Trump had thought Bibi didn’t treat him with respect.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump meeting at Trump Tower in New York, September 25, 2016. (Kobi Gideon/GPO)
The two ended up meeting in the fall of 2016, when Netanyahu came to New York for the UN General Assembly and he met with both Trump and his opponent, Hillary Clinton.
Netanyahu, Dermer, Trump, Bannon and Kushner were all present at the meeting, which Trump later thought went swimmingly.
“The meeting in September was considered an extraordinary success — at least by Trump,” Ward writes. “Netanyahu and Trump each sat on a chair that looked like a throne. Netanyahu spoke for two hours and gave what Bannon called ‘a Middle East master class.’”
Netanyahu reportedly said that American presidents since the 1950s had operated under the “central tenet” that they needed to keep Russia out of the region. He then blamed former president Barack Obama for reversing course. “Obama had essentially allowed Russia to come in [to Syria] and get quasi-permanent status and they weren’t going to leave, and they would have to be dealt with,” Bannon told Ward of the meeting. “He and Trump really got along, big-time.”
Ward quotes an anonymous source who was at the meeting as saying that Trump allowed Kushner to speak freely, as he believed Israel was one of the few issues on which the young man had substantive knowledge.
“In that conversation, Trump let Kushner jump in, because US-Israel relations was the one political issue anyone in the campaign ever saw Kushner get worked up about,” Ward writes, later quoting her source as saying, “On the Israel stuff, Jared at least comes across like he knows what he’s talking about.”
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3) Europe’s China Dilemma
The Continent shows a new realism as Xi seeks to divide and dominate.
The Editorial Board
Even those who don’t agree with President Trump’s trade policy concede that he has a point about China’s often predatory practices. Last week he received intellectual reinforcement of all places from the European Union, which issued a report calling China an “economic competitor” and systemic political rival—sharp language for a region that once considered China a partner to replace an inward-looking U.S.
“There is a growing appreciation in Europe that the balance of challenges and opportunities presented by China has shifted,” says the report issued by the European Commission. The paper knocks Beijing over corporate subsidies and closed markets and notes that China’s military ambitions “present security issues for the EU.” It says Beijing’s foreign investment “may result in high-level indebtedness and transfer of control over strategic assets and resources.”
The paper includes some significant proposals amid less worthy bromides about the importance of the United Nations or the Paris climate accord. The Commission says it will identify how to “fill existing gaps in EU law” to address unfair Chinese competition. It adds that during trade negotiations the EU should push to end forced technology transfer.
The paper also promises a forthcoming “common EU approach to the security of 5G networks.” China’s Huawei has bid aggressively to participate in this next-generation telecom network, but the Commission report leaves open what a united EU would do. The U.S. has been pushing for an EU ban on Huawei because of what U.S. spooks say are its ties to Chinese intelligence.
But individual countries are resisting because they don’t believe the evidence or don’t have a better alternative at Huawei’s price. The report comes on the eve of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s tour of Europe ahead of the EU-China summit. You can bet Huawei’s access is on his agenda.
Mr. Xi is stopping in Italy, which is rolling out a red carpet as it seeks Chinese cash. The deals might include specific plans for Chinese investment in an Italian port and expanded collaboration in industries such as aerospace. Italy may also become the first G-7 country to sign a memorandum of understanding endorsing Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. That plan uses debt financing for infrastructure to boost Beijing’s economic and strategic influence.
Italian politicians want to boost exports to the increasingly important Chinese market. They argue that the Southern European economy, which shrunk in the latter half of 2018, needs more investment in public works and that critics are being hypocritical. Germany’s rail industry has been reinvigorated partly by Chinese investment, as the German city of Duisburg has become an important stop in the New Silk Road promoted by Beijing.
The new European report is a welcome alert that China has strategic and economic ambitions beyond merely benefiting from the Western market economy. If allowed to get away with it, China will behave like a mercantilist power that favors national champions over foreign firms to dominate world markets. Europe can best respond by joining the U.S. and Japan in a united front that uses their leverage to force China to play by the rules or pay an economic and political price.
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4)Q1 GDP is likely to be 1% or less. Combination of world slowdown, shutdown, weather and Q1 is always lower. Q2 and 3 will be materially higher, but unlikely strong due to the continued slowdown everywhere else. There will not be any recession, but there will not be 3% growth. Interest rates will remain flat or lower all year despite wages rising at 3.% or more.
No way to know what happens next with Brexit. The Brits don’t know. March 29 is the deadline. Standby for hard out or a delay. It could be either. Just one more big problem for the EU.
Germany has decided to decrease the share of GDP used to pay for its military despite an EU policy to spend 2% of GDP. Germany is critical to defend against Russia, but it has never spent over 1.5%, and now has decided it will reduce its expenditure to below 1.5% and let the US taxpayer bear the cost. Trump is exactly right on this sharing the burden issue, and it is about to get worse. Expect blowback from Trump on this.
I was accidently sent the wealth management statement for a person I do no know, by UBS. The account was a retirement account with around $1.5 million of value. I was curious, so I looked it over. Frankly, I found the way UBS handled the account deplorable, but not unusual for typical money managers. The person who owned the account got screwed. UBS invested money across a very large number of stocks, mutual funds and ETF’s. 200 shares of this, 300 of that, 200 of another. Money managers seek to not lose money in retirement accounts, so they spread the funds across so many stocks and funds, that no one stock can do major harm. But they buy so little of everything, the investor never really makes any real return. The investor would have been better with an index fund and nil fees. But the investor does only so-so. Many of the shares in that account had been purchased in 2003 and 2004, and held since. 40% was in cash. The return since opening the account in 2003 was 50% over 16 years. That is disgraceful. If the sole goal was preservation, then they could have bought an A, or BBB rated corporate bond, and done as well or better since 2003, with no fees to the manager. If you have a material amount of money, say between $1 -15 million, then choose 10, or maybe 20 stocks you firmly believe in and buy $125,000-$400,000 of each. Obviously it depends on how much you have to invest, and allocate proportionately (if you only have $1 million then maybe 7 or 8 stocks is all), but either you believe in the company, or not, and if not, invest nothing. So long as you have 15 or so different, good solid growth stocks, in different industries, you should be fine. Strong financials, strong management and a leading product line are keys to solid investments. My point is, either commit to invest, or just buy an index fund or an investment grade bond, and go to sleep. Why pay a money manager 75-100 basis points to spread your money around a bunch of stocks that could just as well have been chosen by a dart board, and leave a sizable amount in cash or bonds. The same goes for annuities. You pay big fees to have your money tied up in under performing funds that are illiquid and create tax problems under certain conditions. It makes no sense. Again, just buy an investment grade A or BBB muni or corporate bond, hold to maturity, and sleep well, with interest coming quarterly, and all your money back at maturity. You will have total liquidity, and only taxes on the interest income, or no state tax if a muni. This is why I have never given discretion to any money manager, and I do choices for investing and allocations myself. I get far more good data and research info on Schwab then any money manager ever provided. My total portfolio is up 17% in 2019, vs 13.4% for the S&P. A limited number of stocks in solid companies, no fixed income and nil cash. I rarely trade. How is your money manager doing vs what you might do for yourself? How is your annuity doing? You also need to be completely able to liquidate the entire portfolio in 5 minutes or less, in the event you determine it is time to get out, as I did on May 2007.
The Nunes lawsuit against Twitter might turn out to be the inflection point for the internet companies like Facebook, Google and others which post content. Clearly these are now the primary media companies that produce content by deciding what you see. They censor content posted by others. They are editors of what we see. They have moved from private search and posting companies, to the primary source of news and information for the world. They far exceed TV and print in their reach and impact on the thinking of the public on every topic. They control what people read and know. Very scary when you think about that. You have to ask is this really free speech when AI and young kids edit what readers can see. On TV or print you have wide choices what you read and hear. On primary search you are directed to what they think you should, or should not see. Who makes the rules defining what is free speech. Not an easy question when so much hateful, terrible (child porn), and very dangerous things (ISIS posts) get on these systems. There is clearly proof that there is a bias against conservative posts. Twitter just admitted it improperly deleted a post by the Federalist Society that was not offensive, but was not what the left wants shown. That was not unique for Twitter or others like Facebook. I do not know what the right answer is, but there will likely be very big changes in how these companies and sites are regulated over the next few years.
Similarly, real estate marketing and design is being heavily impacted by the internet and sites like Zillow. There is now no need to drive around and only see what the broker wants to show you or tell you. Now you see all properties, and a lot of data about the asset. You can also learn all about the demographics and other aspects of a neighborhood including all the comps. Buyers are far better informed. This is true for residential as well as commercial. Google Earth even allows you to see the building, and the area from various views. In commercial, it is now possible to find potential properties to acquire without the use of a broker to go seek out deals. There are also auction sites which are legit. Over time, brokers will find that they are less critical to some transactions, and their commissions will likely decline as their value is diminished in many situations. There is now a lawsuit attacking broker commissions on residential. You should negotiate the commission. It does not have to be 6%.
Student loans are a fiscal disaster about to happen. They now total $1.5 Trillion and growing rapidly. The real issue is, anyone can get a student loan. Kids are told you need a college degree to get good paying jobs. (Not true). So colleges are in business to sell certification that you are a graduate of a college. The fact that you are uneducated is irrelevant. (A recent survey shows kids graduate college knowing less history than when they were freshman). The schools are run like a marketing business. They know they can force kids to get these loans, so they compete with fancy buildings and all sorts of amenities instead of a cost effective solid education. At Bowdoin they have lobster fests and a sushi bar compliments of the school. Then schools add sexual abuse, race relations, sensitivity, gender issues and other deans with six figure salaries who then hire a staff who need to find things to justify their existence. The president of U of P earns $5 million plus a house on campus. That is not unique these days for top schools. In short, because the student loans pay for all this, costs at colleges have skyrocketed way beyond any other society or product cost or inflation. It even exceeds drug cost inflation. You hear about drug costs, but college costs are a far bigger problem. Text book costs are way up, but printing and costs of all other books are way down.
The result is, kids drop out at astounding rates, (only 40% complete in 4 years, and only 65% in six years), but the student loan stays. So the kid now has $35,000 or so of debt, and not great job prospects in terms of being able to get paid a salary that can deal with the loan payments. Much of what kids learn today in college is useless garbage like gender studies, race relations, or other useless topics. There are almost no history or civics or economics classes required. 95% of professors are admitted very liberal, and many campuses shut down free speech, so the kids come out like the bartender from the Bronx, uneducated and demanding that all of us conform to the orthodoxy they are ingrained with in college. They attack anyone on social media who does not conform. So now we have millions of kids unable to buy a house, deferring marriage, and in too many cases becoming frustrated and turning to opioids or other drugs and dying. The overhanging debt means no credit to buy a house. Bad for the economy. They are deferring marriage and kids. Not a benefit to society. We need more kids to grow up and work at skilled jobs, and pay taxes to pay for the increasing retiree population that is going to receive higher entitlements and healthcare, which we cannot now afford. We need an educated populace to compete with China effectively, but we are not getting it. The terrible ramifications of college debt are hidden, but are very real to the economy.
I do not ascribe student loans the entire blame for these issues, but it is becoming a major crisis, far greater than climate change in the next decade. Trump has the exact right idea. Make the schools bear a meaningful part of the cost of the defaults. Now the schools enjoy all the benefits of all this funding, but have no liability for failing the students and the country. Contact the Association of Trustees and Alumni, FIRE, or National Constitution Center for much more information and how you can help. Contact your congressman, Senator and governor and tell them the whole issue of student loans and schools needing to be held liable, free speech needs to be allowed, and an end to speech codes needs to happen. Mitch Daniels, the president of Purdue, has held tuition flat for seven years, has a loan program where there is shared loss and payments geared to what the graduate can afford, and far lower costs to textbooks. He has shown how it can easily be done. Other schools do not want to do this so they can have all those inflated salaries.
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