Friday, December 28, 2018

Useless White Males. Can The Fed Make A Soft Landing? 2019 - Could It Be The Year For Conservatives? Root For Root. Sports Humor.

Be on the lookout for a red Chevy and illegal immigrants trying to sneak over our border.  If you see them please report to ICE and give location.


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Males are mostly useless in the coming society. Particularly the white variety.

"The Women's Liberation Movement" gave them their freedom and The  MeToo Movement" extended it beyond sanity.

One day the pendulum will reverse but relations between the sexes will never be the same because "hell hath no fury as a women scorned."

Perhaps this is good and what was ordained. I have my reservations. Time will tell.  (See 1 below.)
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When has The Fed made a soft landing as it shift from prior policies? (See 2 below.)
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Is there an upside for conservatives in 2019?

I will always have reservations about Trump because of his quirkiness but I am downright frightened by the far left swing of the Democrat Party and the progressive liberals/radicals who have taken over the party.

I pray the Democrats nominate the kind of candidate that "deplorables"  will reject and Republicans, who embraced some recent House Candidates  because the Democrat Party was smart enough to run some former military veterans and seemingly middle road types, will return to the fold when it comes to supporting a president.

I believe and hope these Republicans are un-willing to vote for a far left radical running for president. If they are then  our republic's decline will simply accelerate. (See 3 below.)
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A former "vanity editor" explains Trump. (See 4 below.)

And:

What Trump faces in 2019. (See 4a below.)
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You have to root for Root. (See 5 below.)
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 have consistently maintained our fight with China goes beyond tariffs.  We are in a cold war with China. (See 6 below.)
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Time for some sports humor.   Sent to me by a dear friend and fellow memo reader. (See 7 below.)
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Dick
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1) The #MeToo War on Males

The #MeToo Movement originated with good intentions, to show support for the sexually harassed or raped.  But as with everything else, the politically correct warriors have taken over. As this year is ending, people should be examining why it has gone too far and how it has hurt many victims instead of helping them.
American Thinker interviewed Dr. Paul Nathanson, a gender relations professor, who has defined the field of hatred, contempt, and prejudice against men in the current culture, and authored four books on the subject with Katherine Young.  For the past thirty years he has researched this subject, and now believes, “The MeToo Movement has declared war on men, undermined the rule of law, and have become vigilantes. In the 1960s I considered myself a feminist.  As a gay man, I thought feminism was removing gender barriers with a rhetoric all about equality of pay and opportunity. But now it has moved to identity politics.  Justice means ‘justice for our group,’ not what is just.”
Dr. Nathanson believes women need to be accountable for their own behavior and thinks it ridiculous that there are outcries for songs such as “Baby It’s Cold Outside” and that there are demands that the Disney song, “Kiss the Girl” to be banned.” William Shatner, who played Captain Kirk in Star Trek, put it succinctly, “the man in the song is just offering an invitation and presenting an argument for not leaving. He is not saying ‘I'm closing the door and you can't leave.’ It's not force, it's verbal persuasion, which works in the act.” Similarly, the Disney song is trying to prompt a shy boy to “kiss the girl,” not rape the girl.
In the 1970s, another song by Helen Reddy, “I Am Woman, Hear Me Roar” woke up an entire generation of feminists who thought of it as an empowering anthem. In other words, women were raised to stand up for themselves. Dr. Nathanson believes that women should think about taking matters into their own hands by getting out of the toxic #MeToo environment even if it means losing prestige, or financial gain. “If someone doesn’t agree with the #MeToo identity politics they are called a traitor or heretic. But this movement is not empowering women to be independent and to stand up for themselves. There is an implication that women cannot rely on themselves to survive in this brutal world that men have created.”
He wants to call out those that are using feminism to inspire hatred.  For example, Senator Mazie Hirono from Hawaii thinks that any woman who makes an accusation should be believed and forget due process. Remember her saying,
“But really, guess who is perpetuating all of these kinds of actions? It’s the men in this country… And I just want to say to the men in this country: Just shut up and step up. Do the right thing for a change.”
In other words, the man is found guilty by public decision, and there is no need for a court, jury, judge, or trial.
Dr. Paul noted, “I refer to this as identity harassment.  Women need to be held accountable for what is done in their name. Even had Judge Kavanaugh been tried and acquitted in a court of law, his reputation would still have been ruined.  Once these charges have been made most people cannot be rehabilitated in the court of public opinion.”
Another example he cites is the kangaroo courts on college campuses called tribunals.  “There is no due process for men, and they are not able to stand up for themselves.  Rape is wrong and anyone that commits it should be punished through a court process.  But what about those who have consensual sex while drunk and without their wits about them? Today, a woman who has second thoughts afterward can say she was too drunk to think clearly and to give her consent. She is considered the victim. Yet, he, who is also drunk, is still responsible and thus committed rape.  There is a double standard here because she gets a pass for not thinking clearly, while he does not.”
Nathanson is encouraged that women are coming forward to speak out. Caitlin Flanagan said women who were teenagers in the 1970s "were strong in a way that so many modern girls are weak." Megan McArdle, a columnist for the Washington Post, says, “I think there are also lots of situations where the men do [have the power]. But I think we should teach those women to stand up and seize that power back." Catherine Deneuve challenged some of the basic assumptions and aims of the #MeToo campaign, claiming that the movement represents a "puritanical… wave of purification" driven by a growing "hatred of men and of sexuality". 
People have to define what is rape or harassment, and what is seduction or an attempt to pick up someone.  Do women want to be considered victims or to be empowered? Is there due process or witch hunts?  Dr. Nathanson summarized it, “No one would argue that it is perfectly legitimate to think women should have their ‘date’ in court.  The problem arises when they bypass the court and use the court of public opinion.  This is not the foundation of American liberty. There should never be a double standard where men are always evil and women are always good.  This is very toxic.”
The author writes for American Thinker.  She has done book reviews, author interviews, and has written a number of national security, political, and foreign policy articles.
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2) The Fed’s Nightmare Scenario

December 29 marks the twenty-ninth anniversary of the high-water mark in Japanese stocks.  On that date in 1989 the Nikkei 225 Index closed at its all-time high of 38,915, but within months fell into “bear market” territory.  It has never recovered.  It’s astonishing to realize that the Nikkei today is 48% below its historic high.
The main reason for this is because Japan has been fighting the effects of deflation since the early 1990s. To try to reflate the economy, Japan brought short-term interest rates down to zero in 1994, the first major economic power to do so.   Since then, its short-term interest rates have been near zero, and sometimes negative. The Bank of Japan has never been able to “normalize” interest rates back to their pre-1989 level.
One lesson to be gleaned from all this is that a bear market is not merely the name given to a sharp, but transitory, decline in stock prices caused by periodic fluctuations in the business cycle.  It can also be a persistent background condition of generational duration, caused by human error in monetary policy making. 
Another lesson is that the use of short-term interest rates as a tool of monetary policy can lose its effectiveness.  The tool becomes useless in bringing about desired outcomes in the real economy. 
The third lesson is that the first two lessons are connected. This is the nightmare scenario facing the US Federal Reserve Bank as it, too, tries to “normalize” interest rates, getting them up to a level prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-08.
Since 2015, the Fed has been gradually raising short-term rates.  It has come in for sharp criticism amid signs of weakness in the US economy and the slide in stock prices on Wall Street.  The criticism is not just about the interest rate hikes.  It is also about the Fed’s move to “normalize” its balance sheet.  This latter is typically called “quantitative tightening” (QT), which is the opposite of the “quantitative easing” of 2008-14 when the Fed bought some $4.3 trillion worth of securities, mostly intermediate term Treasury bonds, as a way to inject liquidity into the economy during the GFC and its aftermath.
Today the Fed is letting these bonds run to maturity.  On the maturity date, it receives the face value of the bonds in cash from the US Treasury and removes them from its balance sheet.  It then extinguishes the money. This means money is going out of existence, at the rate of about $50 billion a month.
Thus, the recent cycle of interest rate hikes is taking place within the context of the Fed draining liquidity from the market. Some analysts say that by the end of 2019, QT will have the effect of adding two percentage points to short-term interest rates, thus increasing the risk of a recession.
At a press conference on December 19, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell summed up the Fed’s policy stance, thus: 
“We came to the decision that we would have the balance sheet run-off on automatic pilot and use rate policy as the active tool of monetary policy. I don’t see us changing that.”
One need not go any further than this statement to get a handle on the current situation.  A close reading of it reveals four variables are in play.  Powell pointed to something called interest rates and something else called the balance sheet.  He pointed to something called a monetary tool and to something else not considered a tool.  He linked interest rates and a monetary tool, but considered the balance sheet as something else.
This approach brings the nightmare scenario into view.  In the face of deceleration in the US economy, the path is open for the Fed to reverse course on its recent rate hikes.  But what if the economy does not respond as intended?  What if, as in Japan’s experience, the interest rate tool becomes ineffective when it is close to zero?  As one joke has it, when your interest rates are zero, the central bank has only two options:  either it raises rates, which contracts the economy, or it raises rates, which contracts the economy.  Something like this bad joke is going on today in the US.
It is important to ask the right questions in the current debate over monetary policy.  Currently, the debate keys on answers having to do with more or less: how high or low should interest rates be set?  The more penetrating question would yield an either-or answer:  should the primary monetary tool be interest rates? Or should that be scrapped?
A new monetary policy paradigm is needed.   A new outlook would flip the emphasis in Chairman Powell’s statement above so that the Fed’s balance sheet becomes the “active tool” of monetary policy, while interest rates are relegated to a secondary concern — or discarded entirely in favor of letting the market decide the level of short-term rates.
This new paradigm would be a rule-based approach to monetary policy.  One way to do this would be to use the price of gold as the rule for determining the quantity of dollars demanded by the economy.  Accordingly, if the daily price of gold settles above its long-term moving average, that would be considered an “inflationary” signal.  The Fed should drain liquidity from the system; it would sell bonds.  If the daily price of the gold settles below its long-term moving average, that would be a “deflationary” signal.  The Fed should inject liquidity into the system; it would buy bonds.  The Fed would take no action if the price of gold roughly approximates its long-term moving average.  Regardless of the signals, using short-term interest rates as an “active policy tool” would be discarded.
The 2016 Republican Party Platform renewed the party’s call for the creation of commission “to consider the feasibility of a metallic basis for U.S. currency.”  In the past, there have been fitful moves in Washington in this direction.  What is needed today is a debate that would examine alternative means for monetary policy-making.  It would certainly be an improvement over the current rancor and bitterness as to how the Fed is doing its job on setting interest rates.
James Soriano is a retired Foreign Service Officer.
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3)

The Upside for Conservatives in 2019


There are, I believe, positive developments -- even reasons for cautious good cheer – as 2019 faces conservatives, even as the assault on our constitutional order continues (and I use this phrase advisedly).
The most obvious positive result is to be found in the results of the midterm elections. True, the GOP lost the House, yet on the positive side, Paul Ryan -- who played a key role in slowing down the House investigations into the Russia Hoax and even, as it turns out, the initial dissemination of the Clinton campaign's "dossier" -- is gone. That alone is a positive development, as is the emergence of a more unified Republican caucus.
On the Senate side the news is even better. The GOP majority has been expanded -- an historically unlikely achievement. Traitorous members have been discarded -- McCain, Flake, Corker -- and replaced by either more conservative new senators or new senators who owe their election to Trump's remarkable campaign effort and who will therefore be in his debt. This bodes well for confirmations, both of judges -- including very possibly another seat on the Supreme Court -- but also for perhaps the key cabinet position: the confirmation of a new attorney general to replace the feckless Jeff Sessions.
Already, in that regard, we have good news. Matt Whitaker, the acting AG, has been cleared by an internal ethics review at DoJ to supervise Team Mueller. Of course, emboldened by their success with Sessions, the usual Democrat suspects brought forward the by now standard demands for recusal, citing Whitaker's past criticisms of Mueller. Whitaker, despite anonymous DoJ sources suggesting recusal out of "an abundance of caution," wisely and out of a strong sense of principle refused to recuse himself. The notion that anyone who has paid attention to ongoing events in the public life of the nation and who has both an opinion and the gumption to express that opinion should recuse himself from a position of authority is too bankrupt for serious consideration.
The stage is now set for Whitaker to play an active role in oversight of Team Mueller. If the Democrats have a problem with that, there is a ready solution. They can try their luck with Bill Barr by allowing his confirmation as AG to proceed expeditiously.
Barr is, as former AG Michael Mukasey wrote in "The Phony Attack on William Barr", "probably the best-qualified nominee for U.S. attorney general since Robert Jackson in 1940... Mr. Barr has already served as attorney general under George H.W. Bush, as well as assistant attorney general in charge of the Office of Legal Counsel [OLC], the authoritative voice within the Justice Department on issues of law throughout the government."
Official portrait of William Barr as Attorney General
Beyond his obvious qualifications, Barr has demonstrated over the past few years a degree of principle and even courage in his concern for the public weal that recommends him for the position of Attorney General. For a lawyer of his accomplishments, to have remained silent at his stage in both his life and his career would have been easy. Instead, he has spoken out forcefully regarding what he has been able to discern of the direction that Mueller has been leading his team of Clinton partisans. Even more notable in a way, Barr took the unusual step of embodying his views not in an op-ed piece but instead in a tightly reasoned 19-page memo to Rod Rosenstein and Stephen Engel (the Ass't AG currently in charge of OLC).
In this memo Barr takes Mueller to task for what Barr describes as a theory of obstruction of justice (regarding the firing of James Comey) that is "fatally misconceived." Mueller's theory, says Barr, is "premised on a novel and legally insupportable reading of the law." And he goes on to examine Mueller's theory in detail, analyzing both the relevant statutory law as well as the past positions on obstruction that DoJ itself has taken.
Barr's sense of public duty and principle as well as his courage in expressing views that are bound to be unpopular with the Washington establishment that knows him well, speaks volumes about his character. Predictably, the release of this memo has been greeted with howls of outrage and calls for his preemptive recusal from all matters concerning Team Mueller. I'm not much of one for predictions, but in this case, I'll go out on a limb a bit. I predict that Barr will refuse to offer any sort of preemptive pledge of recusal, and I further predict that, when confirmed, he will not recuse himself but will instead examine Team Mueller's legal theories and their prosecutorial practices with a critical eye focused on justice.
Those qualities of principle, sense of public duty, and courage were on display late last year, as noted by the New York Times, when the paper questioned former AGs regarding Trump's continued calls for investigation of Hillary Clinton:
Of 10 former attorneys general contacted Tuesday, only one responded to a question about what they would do in Mr. Sessions’s situation. 
“There is nothing inherently wrong about a president calling for an investigation,” said William P. Barr, who ran the Justice Department under President George Bush. “Although an investigation shouldn’t be launched just because a president wants it, the ultimate question is whether the matter warrants investigation.” 
Mr. Barr said he sees more basis for investigating the uranium deal than any supposed collusion between Mr. Trump and Russia. “To the extent it is not pursuing these matters, the department is abdicating its responsibility,” he said.
Regarding the utterly predictable and unprincipled calls for Barr's recusal or rejection as AG, former AG Mukasey stated, with a touch of irony:
The logical implication of opposing Mr. Barr’s appointment or seeking his recusal because he has opined on a matter of substantial public concern is that the only people suitable for public office are those who are ignorant of public issues or indifferent to them. That in itself should silence his critics.
All this, I submit, offers reason for hope.
Mark Wauck is a retired FBI agent who blogs on philosophy, religion, and national security at meaning in history. In his previous life he had over two decades of experience in counterintelligence matters.
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4) The Crisis Of America's Upp Class

One man especially has them going batty.

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