The new Democrat party:Terrorists over IsraelIllegals over AmericansSocialism over CapitalismLobbyists over VotersCriminals over PoliceGlobalists over AmericaVoter Fraud over Voter I.D.DC over AmericaPolitics over the People
https://www.frontpagemag.com/
And:
CLICK- Send Out the Clowns
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
All I can say it is a good thing I am not president because an invasion of my nation is an act of war. I would respond by sending the military to the border with instructions to shoot st the illegal immigrants trying to cross. First at their feet, then at their legs and then aim higher if need be. No nation should have to tolerate an invasion.
In addition, I would cut off all funding to any nation engaged in "war"against us and I would declare war against them and give them a week to do something about it and if they failed to do so I would attack them from the air and send them a message they would understand.
No doubt this would cause great emotion, anxiety and angst among Democrats, thuggish members of The U.N. and feckless Europeans. The mass media would go bonkers and Waters would seek my impeachment but the object would be to make sure the world knew America was to be feared. Being feared is far better than being liked when it comes to foreign affairs. This is something Obama did not know, never learned and this is why we are being invaded now. He wanted to be liked, he wanted to apologize and he wanted to give money to terrorists. That was the gist of his foreign policy. Oh yeah, he also wanted to run down our military and this is why so many of our best military senior officers retired. (See 1 below.)
Beto can and should be beaten. Cruz may not be my kind of garden variety conservative but his opponent is apparently a fraud in sweaty clothing. (See 1a below.)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Unlike the Saudi's in Yemen, Israel restrains itself but eventually might be forced to retaliate causing collateral damage it has consistently tried to avoid at peril to its own citizens. (See 2 below.)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Will Democrats miss the boat with Latino voters? (See 3 below.)
If a pollster called me I would purposely lie. Why? Because I have deep seated resentments against the mass media and would love to mess with them. Is this going to happen again with respect to polling predictions? Stay tuned.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
When has The Fed ever landed a plane at the correct speed? This from Schwab. (See 4 below.)
And:
Another Rant. (See 4a below.)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
When something is free that means there is no monetary cost. When Democrats say it is free you can bet God will pay for it. (See 5 below.)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Our Newest Video
The American Trinity: The Three Values That Make America Great
Nearly every country on Earth is defined by race or ethnicity. Not America. What makes the United States different? Dennis Prager outlines the values that have allowed the American people to flourish and, unlike immigrants almost everywhere else, transformed those who arrived from across the globe into full Americans—regardless of where they were born.
+++++++++
Dick
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1) Migrant Caravan Points Way to GOP Midterm Success
The current caravan is a group of four- to seven-thousand Hondurans, traveling from Honduras to the United States. Google Maps shows the distance between Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, and Brownsville, Texas, the most logical border city, as about 1,600 miles, a 515-hour trek on foot.
Interestingly, the caravan consists primarily of military-aged men, as opposed to women and children, as this photo from the Daily Mail demonstrates. Women and children are few, and mainly being used as photo props. The migrant hordes entering Europe from the Middle East were also primarily young men.
Screenshot from Fox News
What the media is surprisingly incurious about is who is paying for this journey. Thousands of adults and children on a 45-day trek, need food, water, bathroom facilities, first aid, and other services that all cost money. The New York Times was all over the false story of United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley ordering extravagant new drapes, but they are uninterested in funding of this enormously costly caravan.The timing is also suspicious. This caravan is making its move in October, the month of “surprises” ahead of a major election. Two years ago, it was the Access Hollywood tapes. This October brought us last-minute Justice Kavanaugh accusations, Senator Elizabeth Warren unsuccessfully attempting to prove herself Native American, a suspicious murder in Turkey implicating the Saudi royal family, and now this supposedly spontaneous migrant caravan.
The only common denominator is an upcoming election, one of the utmost importance to Democrats, on political life support, desperately trying to regain power and relevance. These events are not coincidental, instead all are preplanned and part of an electoral strategy.
The migrant horde, at least 4,000 in number, seek better socio-economic opportunity in the United States, something lacking in their home country. They are not alone. Some 150 million adults worldwide would migrate to the U.S. if they could. Bringing their children, parents, and extended families could double this number, and double the U.S. population if they all actually came here. That would fulfill Barack Obama’s dream of “fundamentally transforming America” although not in a good way.
Without language or other skills necessary to be productive in the U.S. (and Central American nations rank the lowest in the hemisphere for English), most would be enjoying the health, education, and welfare benefits of the U.S. courtesy of already overtaxed US citizens. What else might they be bringing?
How about diseases, particularly those common in their home countries, but not in the U.S.? I’ve written about drug-resistant TB, scabies, chicken pox and hepatitis crossing the border with these migrants. Chagas disease is the latest regional scourge turning up in the U.S. Terrorists could also easily join the caravan, bringing in weapons and ideologies of mass destruction to the U.S. Already, the president of Guatemala has stated he's found such terrorists in his country. This, in addition to run of the mill criminals – thieves, murderers, rapists, gang members, and the like. Remember Kate Steinle?
Interesting that 100 ISIS terrorists were caught in Guatemala at the same time the caravan moved toward the U.S. How many were not caught and remain within the caravan? Democrats and the media seem non-plussed about this clear and present threat to America.
Recently there has been an uptick in acute flaccid myelitis, a polio-like neurologic illness affecting mostly children, untreatable, and often leading to permanent paralysis. Polio has been mostly eradicated but is still prevalent in Nigeria, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. It has also returned to Venezuela, a side benefit of their full-on socialism.
Could any of these caravan migrants be from these countries and carrying a polio-like illness? Does everyone entering the U.S. receive a physical exam? Is the recent outbreak of acute flaccid myelitis a coincidence or is it related? The CDC is mum on the subject, so we can only speculate and try to connect the dots.
Democrats hope the caravan will hurt President Trump. Images of the U.S. military turning away migrants from the border will dominate the news cycle. All that’s necessary is for a Democrat brown-shirt activist, inserted into the caravan, attempting to trigger a violent response from the military or an ICE agent, captured and edited by preplaced media operatives, all to damage Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterms.
Trump is wisely encouraging Honduras, Guatemala, and Mexico to stop the caravan, wielding a big economic stick as he makes these countries an offer they can’t refuse. After two years, they already know not to cross Trump, especially on his signature issue of border security. So far, Mexico is listening to Trump, attempting to stop the caravan on their southern border.
I have a better idea. Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell should call their respective houses of Congress into emergency session to vote on completely funding the wall on the U.S. southern border. After all, this is a matter of national security and urgent.
Let every member of Congress go on record as for or against border and national security. Then load up all illegal immigrants currently in U.S. detention centers into busses and send them to the local campaign offices of all members of Congress, regardless of party, who voted against protecting and securing our border.
Drop them off in San Francisco, Manhattan, Portland, and Seattle, at the district offices of those voting 'no' on the wall. Let these Representatives and Senators contend with illegal immigrants in their neighborhoods and districts. How will the voters like a small migrant caravan in their towns? Perhaps they can then ask their elected officials why they refuse to do anything to stop or prevent this? What a good question to ask a few days before an election.
Let the Democrats defend opening our country to those disrespecting America, as this photo of two migrants burning the American flag on the Guatemala-Mexico border illustrates.
Elections have consequences. Vote for a party that wants open borders and unlimited immigration, then live with the results of that decision, but at home, in their backyard, not somewhere else. It’s only when voters and legislators have to live with the consequences of their votes do the votes seem to matter.
How would that be for an October surprise, this time for the Democrats.
Images credit: Fox News screenshots
1a)
The Real Beto O'Rourke
I recently attended an indoor Beto O'Rourke rally in Corpus Christi, Texas in the Richardson Auditorium on the Del Mar College campus. Arriving 45 minutes late (after meeting for 15 minutes with fawning press backstage), he was introduced by Congressman Joe Kennedy. O'Rourke bizarrely rolled onto the stage on a skateboard (he had done this in an earlier rally in Brownsville) and spoke for 30 minutes.
O’Rourke called for essentially open borders and free health care. He attacked Trump along with his senatorial election opponent, incumbent Texas Senator Ted Cruz, but there was no mention of his previous statement approving of disrespect for the flag,which Cruz and others had pounced on. O'Rourke appeared awkward and thin and was constantly flailing his hands and arms.
I noticed something rather unsettling. I was only sitting ten feet away from O'Rourke. The temperature outside was a near perfect 78 degrees, and the hall itself, which is kept at 72 degrees, seemed chilly. The stage lights are 20 feet above the stage. But just minutes into O'Rourke's speech, sweat began to pour down his face and spread across the front of his shirt. In his introduction, Joe Kennedy had said of O'Rourke that "he sweats a lot," and the local Caller-Times, in what was basically an advocacy article, showed pictures of O'Rourke before and after the speech both dry and drenched in perspiration.
If one googles "Beto sweat" there are several articles from websites both left and right that make reference to it. The primary causes of cold sweats are said to be anxiety and stress.
He quickly exited after his speech and took no questions from the audience, but what I had wanted to ask O'Rourke about was his arrest record and some of his inconsistent statements concerning it. In 1995, he graduated from Columbia University in New York. He then went by "Rob" and had a degree in English literature, and among other things, was known for scolding other students for smoking cigarettes while constantly using marijuana (of which he now avidly supports federal decriminalization).
O’Rourke called for essentially open borders and free health care. He attacked Trump along with his senatorial election opponent, incumbent Texas Senator Ted Cruz, but there was no mention of his previous statement approving of disrespect for the flag,which Cruz and others had pounced on. O'Rourke appeared awkward and thin and was constantly flailing his hands and arms.
I noticed something rather unsettling. I was only sitting ten feet away from O'Rourke. The temperature outside was a near perfect 78 degrees, and the hall itself, which is kept at 72 degrees, seemed chilly. The stage lights are 20 feet above the stage. But just minutes into O'Rourke's speech, sweat began to pour down his face and spread across the front of his shirt. In his introduction, Joe Kennedy had said of O'Rourke that "he sweats a lot," and the local Caller-Times, in what was basically an advocacy article, showed pictures of O'Rourke before and after the speech both dry and drenched in perspiration.
If one googles "Beto sweat" there are several articles from websites both left and right that make reference to it. The primary causes of cold sweats are said to be anxiety and stress.
He quickly exited after his speech and took no questions from the audience, but what I had wanted to ask O'Rourke about was his arrest record and some of his inconsistent statements concerning it. In 1995, he graduated from Columbia University in New York. He then went by "Rob" and had a degree in English literature, and among other things, was known for scolding other students for smoking cigarettes while constantly using marijuana (of which he now avidly supports federal decriminalization).
Days after the commencement, on the campus of the University of El Paso (UTEP) with two other men, he was arrested for attempting to burglarize a building. The charges were dismissed the next year, but at the time of the incident, even though he had already left college and never attended UTEP, he consistently has called it a "college prank,” which had happened “during his college years.” I attempted to locate the two other “pranksters,” one of whom apparently still lives in El Paso, to no avail.
Then there is the more serious issue of his arrest for DWI in 1998. O'Rourke has always described it as a "mistake for which there is no excuse." But in late August, the Houston Chronicle as well as the San Antonio Express News obtained the arrest report, and the Chronicle found that the incident was "a more serious threat to public safety than has been previously reported."
The police report showed that in the early morning hours of September 27, O'Rourke was traveling -n a 75 mile an hour zone on Interstate 10 in Anthony, Texas, about 20 miles west of El Paso. He passed another motorist, who was also headed west, and then lost control and collided with a truck. The impact sent O'Rourke's Volvo over the grassy median and he ended up on the eastbound side. The motorist that O'Rourke had passed on the westbound side also crossed over to the other side and began to pursue the fleeing O'Rourke. He began to flash his lights and honk to try to get O'Rourke to stop as well as warn other vehicles, and then he finally was able to impede O'Rourke.
Arresting officer Richard Carrera spoke to the motorist first and then approached O'Rourke, who was obviously intoxicated and failed several sobriety tests. Carrera placed O'Rourke under arrest and he was transported to a police substation in west El Paso. During his interview, O'Rourke claimed to have had only two beers. He agreed to take a breathalyzer and the readings showed .136 and .134 of blood alcohol content, far above intoxication levels.
For O'Rourke's reported size and weight, he would have had at least six beers. He was then taken before a judge and later booked into the county jail. The bond was placed at $1,500 and O'Rourke made bail the next day. The charges were dismissed after O'Rourke completed a court-appointed diversion program.
Carrera filed two reports, one with the Anthony Police Department and another with the State of Texas and El Paso County. The only thing that is unclear is the direction on the interstate O'Rourke had used to flee. In both reports, Carrera wrote that when O'Rourke landed on the eastbound side, he was also pointed east. If he continued to flee in that direction, he would have been going the wrong way down I-10. The witness/reporter who had chased O'Rourke and forced him to stop is unnamed and Officer Carrera cannot be located.
But what is clear is that O'Rourke fled the scene. During a debate with Ted Cruz in September a few weeks after the arrest record became public, the moderator asked O'Rourke if he had fled the scene. "I did not try to leave the scene of the accident, though driving drunk, which is a terrible mistake for which there is no excuse or justification or defense." Then he returned to his familiar stance before the more serious details recently became known. "I can tell you that I was able to have a second chance in life." O'Rourke then awkwardly pivoted to make the issue about racial justice. "What I do know is that as a white man in this country, there is a privilege that I enjoy that many African-American men and women do not."
Days later, Glenn Kessler, the Fact Checker of the Washington Post, gave O'Rourke the lowest rating of “Four Pinocchios,” which qualifies as a "whopper."
A few days later, O'Rourke did a friendly interview of over an hour with Texas Tribune CEO Evan Smith. When Smith asked if he had fled the scene of the accident, O'Rourke said, "I did not flee. The police report on this count is wrong." Then O'Rourke added that, "I reached out to the passenger who was in the car I was driving who does not appear in the police report, among other factual errors, somebody that I've not spoken to in more than 15 years, and asked her recollection of that evening. She said, "No, we were in the median of the road. We did not try to flee.'"
Smith did not follow up and ask who the mystery passenger was. I recently contacted the O'Rourke campaign as to her identity but have received no response. It should be noted that none of the police reports mentioned another passenger. But the reports did mention that there was another passenger with the witness/reporter who was able to chase down and stop O'Rourke.
Currently, O'Rourke has raised 38 million dollars, much of it from out of state. But Cruz continues to gain in the polls. Other Democrats in closer races were asked if they could share in the funds. “No,” O’Rourke said. “I'm focused on Texas. Most of our contributions have come from Texas." Actually, much of the money comes from ActBlue, which raises money almost entirely from out of state.
At the second and final debate last week, O'Rourke awkwardly called Cruz "Lyin' Ted" the moniker that Donald Trump had previously bestowed upon him, and the campaign followed up with attack ads, something that O'Rourke said he would never do. At a recent town hall on CNN, O'Rourke reiterated that he would vote to impeach Donald Trump, putting him in the same category as the angry Maxine Waters.
O'Rourke is not only being misleading about his past, but is a man of the far left who would not be able to win statewide elections through most of the country. It seems that no matter how much fawning press coverage and millions of dollars flow in from elsewhere, O'Rourke will lose, and probably by a significant margin. "Betomania" is all hype. To coin a current phrase from urban America, O'Rourke "ain't all that."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
2)
| Weekly Commentary: Israeli Public Deserves to Know Cost of Destroying Gaza Weapons |
Dr. Aaron Lerner Israeli intelligence has devoted considerable resources to maintaining the "target bank" - a detailed listing that includes the location of every known rocket and other weapon system in the Gaza Strip as well as the location of every known facility engaged in manufacturing these weapons. To date the Israeli policymakers have declined to order the destruction of these targets. This is most likely out of concern for the collateral damage that would be associated with hitting targets either protected by human shields or located within sensitive targets such a hospitals, schools, mosques. etc. To put it brutally: it would appear that Israeli policymakers are convinced that it would take an Israeli bloodbath to justify a truly effective IDF operation against these targets. And in the absence of an Israeli bloodbath, Israel's goal is limited to "restoring deterrence" = Hamas keeps on arming itself with even more advanced weapons but declines to use them against the Jewish State for a period of time. Yes. It would be naïve and irresponsible to suggest that an effective IDF operation against the targets would not have serious consequences. But the public deserves to know these assessments. It has frequently turned out that the Israeli street has been considerably more willing to bear the costs of military operations than the policymakers anticipated. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 3) Democratic outreach to Latino voters doesn’t look much better than it did in 2016Most Latino voters say they haven’t experienced any kind of midterms outreach.Latino voters could make the difference in some of this year’s most competitive congressional races — particularly in places like Arizona, California, and Texas where they make up more than 20 percent of the electorate.
Given high anti-Trump sentiment among Latino voters — and a strong preference for Democratic candidates — these voters could help spur a “blue wave” in November. But Democrats have to reach them and turn them out to vote first.
Recent data from NALEO and Latino Decisions suggests that this might not be happening — or at least that these efforts aren’t any more successful than they were in 2016.
In an October 16 poll, the groups found that 55 percent of Latino voters haven’t experienced any form of election outreach from Democrats or Republicans. Voters indicated that they hadn’t yet been contacted by a political party, campaign, or community organization about voting across multiple platforms including phone, mail, and email.
At the same time in the 2016 election, almost the exact same proportion of Latino voters also said that they hadn’t received any outreach. An October 17, 2016, poll found that 56 percent of Latino voters had not heard from either political party as the election was approaching.
The striking similarities in the data seem to suggest that neither party has changed much when it comes to their efforts to connect with Latino voters, even though experts have repeatedly emphasized that Democrats need to dial up their outreach if they want to bolster Latino turnout in 2018.
“If Democrats assume that they can expect higher voter turnout based on feelings of political threat or angst without investing in voter mobilization, this will likely lead to disappointing electoral participation,” Ricardo Ramirez, a Notre Dame political science professor, told Vox.
An aide from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — a campaign arm for Democratic House candidates — notes that the organization is investing more than $25 million to connect with different groups of Democratic base voters including African Americans, Latinos, Asian Americans, millennials and women. The aide also said that investments the DCCC made to reach voters ahead of the California primaries helped to spur Hispanic turnout for the CA-39 primary, a key battleground district. This year’s Hispanic turnout in that district was significantly higher than primaries in both 2014 and 2010, the aide said.
A spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
In 2016, Democrats were banking on Latino voters to help sway the presidential election, a surge that never fully materialized. That year, Latino voters ended up turning out at lower rates than white, African-American, and Asian voters, says Queens University political science professor Margaret Commins.
It remains to be seen whether the same dynamic could play out again in November
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
4) Raising Interest Rates: Will the Federal Reserve Get it Right?
With the economy recovered from the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has focused on returning short-term interest rates to historical norms. So far, things have gone pretty well—but there’s always the potential for the Fed to go too far, too fast, which could hasten another recession.
It’s happened before, notes Kathy Jones, Schwab senior vice president and chief fixed income strategist—although “the central bank’s overreach was apparent only in hindsight.” That’s what makes predicting the outcome of the Fed’s strategy so tricky, Kathy says. How likely is it to overstep? How will we know? Let’s take a look at the Fed’s role and three indicators that could signal where policy is headed.
The Fed’s charge
The Fed sets monetary policy—in other words, it manages the money supply by controlling short-term interest rates and influencing the cost and availability of credit.
The Fed has multiple tools to influence monetary policy, one of which is the federal funds rate—the interest rate at which depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, lend excess balances to one another on an overnight basis. An increase in the federal funds rate can affect everything from the yield on savings accounts to mortgage rates to the stock market.
How far we’ve come
In response to the Great Recession, the Fed reduced the federal funds rate from 5.25% in September 2007 to a range of 0–0.25% by December 2008. (The Fed also took a number of other measures, such as quantitative easing, to help stimulate the economy.) Gradually, the economy began to recover.
In December 2015, with conditions greatly improved, the Fed began returning to more traditional monetary policy measures that aim to maximize employment, stabilize prices and moderate long-term interest rates. Since then, the Fed has raised the federal funds rate eight times—once in 2015; once in 2016; three times in 2017; and, thus far, three times in 2018—each time a quarter percent. And it has signaled the likelihood of one more rate hike this year, with more to come in 2019.
Will the Fed go too far, or move too fast? “While it’s nearly impossible to tell in advance—that’s a question Fed policymakers themselves struggle with,” Kathy explains, “there are a few indicators that can help investors gauge whether the Fed is near the end of the cycle or likely to overshoot, and whether it might be time to make portfolio changes to manage potential risk.
What you can do now
“At this point,” says Kathy, “we see only one indicator—the flattening yield curve—that could be signaling an eventual end to the rate-hiking cycle.” But once all three signals have flashed, it’s quite possible that bond yields will have already begun to decline. Schwab advises investors to keep their eyes on market changes and consider the following actions:
The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Diversification does not ensure a profit and does not protect against losses in declining markets.
Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed-income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. Lower-rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk and liquidity risk.
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the U.S. government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the U.S. government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation.
The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.
4a) Program trading now constitutes around 80% of daily trading, and when the algorithm sees rising rates, some may be programmed to sell. We do not know what is coded into many of these programs, but we do know that they do account for some, or maybe most of the volatility. If you believe the recent data on the economy, the fundamentals remain excellent, and maybe as good as it has ever been. Just stay calm and do not try to outguess the ups and downs. If you believe the economy is going to remain strong for at least another 3-4 quarters, then subject to the election, the market should remain strong over time. If I am correct that the Republicans hold the House, and pick up 4 or more seats in the Senate, then there will be a rally. If I am wrong, then stay on top of the market and be prepared to possibly do some selling. Keep in mind that all the Dem economists, Krugman, Sommers, Bernstein, and others, were 180 degrees wrong about what would happen if Trump won, which should tell you to ignore all that stuff from those people, especially Krugman who is so far off about just about everything, it is hard to understand how he has any credibility left. Bernstein is just a political hack. Make your own judgments on where the economy and stock markets are going. All the pollsters and media got 2016 completely wrong.
One major indicator of how good things are, is the demand for qualified labor. Everyone I talk to who runs a company or organization, tells me they cannot find anyone to hire. Highly qualified young people who graduated in the last two years, are changing jobs quickly because they can get 15%-20% more salary by just moving to a new company. Anyone looking to hire well qualified people who is not willing to pay up, is not able to hire and is losing good staff. The result in some cases is companies will fail because they cannot fill key positions and so cannot run the company in a way that they can compete effectively. This problem is now impacting non-profits who do not pay well. If you look at new unemployment claims, not only is the number near record lows, but as a percent of the workforce it is barely a rounding error. The job market has never been this good. And what is the Democrat solution, repeal the tax cuts and give $500 a month to people who do not work, then give everyone government run healthcare paid for with confiscatory taxes. A policy guaranteed to destroy the economy.
Oil prices are back below $70 as expected, and demand from China and other places outside the US is slowing. US shale is now making the US the largest producer in the world since Trump lifted many of the restrictions on shale, offshore drilling, and pipelines. We are no longer dependent on OPEC. That allows us to isolate Iran. With oil prices likely to remain between $65 and $70, inflation will remain lower, as will gas prices. That should help mitigate interest rate increases next year. Obama never understood how oil impacts the economy and foreign policy. He and the left never understand that alternative fuels are far away from taking over energy markets, so producing oil in huge quantities really matters.
If you have not been a paying attention, the Chinese stock market is far down, and possibly headed lower. The recent rally is likely due to the government intervening, but it is unlikely to last. Their economy is now suffering, and it is getting worse. And that is all before the real tariffs go into effect in two weeks. China is in difficult economic shape. The government is beginning to intervene by increasing liquidity for banks and supporting the stock market. But underneath all of that is a slowing economy, and more problems ahead once tariffs kick in fully. Don’t believe the official stats that the economy is still growing at 6.5%. They lie a lot about data. The private data show it is worse. The slowing economy has put a stop to the effort to reduce the massive over leverage, so the problems are just festering for China. Trump is letting them twist in the wind for now, which is exactly the right position to take for now. The US is in good shape for a trade fight, but China is not. Now that Brexit is again in difficulty, and Italy is creating serious problems, the EU cannot afford to fight the US on trade. That deal will get done soon in our favor. It really does not matter that China is reducing their Treasury holdings. They are doing it slowly, and it is not really impacting yields. They cannot just dump nearly $1 trillion of Treasuries.
The Fed is a seller of bonds now in its effort to wind down QE, so that creates some artificial pressure on bond prices and asset values. Not a lot, but it is the complete reversal of QE which pumped up risk asset values, so asset prices are not being pushed up any longer by the flood of liquidity we experienced under QE. Real estate prices are flat as part of the result, but also because rates are rising. Underwriting is still mostly decent, but starting to loosen too much in the shadow loan market. There are still some opportunities in real estate, but you have to look hard, and be prepared to do renovation and repositioning, which has its own risks. There are also still some ground up opportunities, but land and construction costs are making that harder to make work, especially in housing.
Even with the record stock market, pension plans across the country are $4 Trillion in the red vs liabilities. If stocks fall, say 10% or 20%, that number might rise to $6 trillion. There is no possible way this can get covered. If they are so deep in the hole in this market and economy, there is only a massive brewing crisis ahead, primarily in government pensions, which means taxpayer bailout. Did you know that many government worker pension payments are tax free, but your pension payment is not? The inability of state and local government to fund pensions is already materially impacting many infrastructure projects which cannot get done because the money has gone to fund teacher pensions. And it is going to get much worse. This is the next financial crisis when the stock market declines. Unless there is major pension reform and reduction, many states like IL, CA and NJ are is major trouble.
One of the worrying issues in two years is that many companies levered up to do stock buybacks, and for other non-productive reasons. For some reason I do not understand, many used short term paper which will start to mature in the next two years or so, just as interest rates will be higher. Why they did not lock in longer term fixed rates makes no sense to me. Short term savings on short maturities will come back to bite them. There is a real question now as to how these companies are going to repay or refinance all this debt at rising interest rates so that it will not impinge on profits, just as the economy runs out of fiscal stimulus in 2020, and beyond. Unless companies use the tax savings and profits to reduce this debt, or unless they lock in fixed rate loans now, we are potentially in for a problem in 2021. That does not mean another crash. It just means a profits decline and a stock market decline somewhere out two to three years.
Apparently drivers of lumber trucks in Montana have been talking over their radios more than they ever have, and a lot have agreed to forgo loads on election day in order to vote Republican. The driver reporting this said he has never seen this sort of thing before, and these guys are really riled up. 77,000 people signed up in Houston to get tickets to go to the latest Trump rally. Just think about that number, and try to relate it to what you will hear on CNN, NBC, ABC, Google, etc about Trump’s approval. That indicates what is going on in the real America away from the coasts, and away from the media and Silicon Valley. The caravan is likely supported and encouraged by the Dems and Pelosi, and Soros and Steyer, and it is going to add on to Kavanaugh, and shift votes from the Dems in AZ, TX, and many other places. The idea that the border will be overrun by illegals taking advantage of the separation of families issue from a couple of months ago, is going to get a lot of border state voters out to the polls. There are now 4,000 -yes 4,000, coming across each week since the courts stopped Trump from closing the border. Look at pictures of the caravan. Note that nobody has a suitcase. Nobody has water, or a sleeping bag. They drag along kids walking over one thousand miles with no clothes or any personal belongings. Do you ask how this is possible. How can the kids walk over 1000 miles. Where do 4000 walkers go to the bathroom. And the media claimed Trump was heartless by trying to close the border. There are 13,000 kids that came across unaccompanied now in custody. Many “parents” are not real “parents”, they just have a kid in tow to get across. How does anyone just pick up and walk over 1000 miles with no change of clothes or personal belongings. Who is really behind this, and what is really going on. The more they break down border fences in Mexico and create a huge story, the more Republicans go out to vote in border states.
Now the Dems want to repeal the tax reductions and give poor people $6,000 of your tax dollars each year for doing nothing. That is your money they want to give away. And that would just be a start to a program that failed in Canada and Sweden recently. Tariffs are no longer an issue in farm states, and, in fact, now that story is a positive for Republicans. Each of these things is what is going on in much of America that the coasts do not report. That is shifting the vote. The closer the caravan gets to the border, and the more the Dems want open borders, and the more they talk about impeaching Kavanaugh and Trump, the more Republican and independent voters are motivated to go vote. Many reports on the news now, is how the vote is shifting, and how Republican senatorial candidates are now moving ahead. You no longer hear as much about a blue wave. Some pollsters give the Republicans a 20% shot at holding the House. Up from zero. Early voting has begun, so the Kavanaugh effect has already had an impact. Trumps approval rating is now around 47% in the most recent credible polls like Rasmussen, and that matters in this election. (Go to Google, or CNBC, or CNN and you will get the impression the rating has fallen-not that Silicon Valley slants its searches ) It is higher than Obama at 2 years in. The caravan will seal the deal. It is all about turn out.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
5) FREE MEDICARE FOR ALL?
WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG WITH MAKING FREE MEDICARE FOR ALL?
FIRST, IT WOULD BE TOTALLY RUN BY GOVERMENT BUREAUCRATS, NOT PATIENTS, DOCTORS OR PROFESSIONAL HOSPITAL ADMINISTRATORS. THIS IS WHAT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS PROMOTING ACROSS OUR NATION. ELECT DEMOCRATS AND THIS MAY WELL BE WHAT YOU GET.
YOU MAY THINK THIS SOUNDS GOOD UNTIL YOU LOOK BEYOND THE SURFACE.
WE WANT QUALITY HEALTHCARE, BUT DO YOU THINK THAT WOULD HAPPEN with GOVERNMENT BUREAUCRATS? LOOK AT THE V.A, AND ALL THE PROBLEMS OUR VETS FACE WITH A TOTALLY GOVERNMENT RUN HEALTH SYSTEM.
DO YOU THINK WE HAVE ENOUGH DOCTORS, NURSES, FACILITIES, AND EQUIPMENT TO HANDLE THE INFLUX OF PATIENTS?
IT CERTAINLY WOULD OVER LOAD THE SYSTEM, AND GOVERNMENT BUREAUCRATS WOULD NEED TO STEP IN A WITH RATIONING USE OF FACILITIES, AND IT WOULD CREATE LONG DELAYS JUST TO SEE A DOCTOR OR GET A NEEDED OPERATION...AND YOU'D HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ACCEPT IT, AND WAIT.
GOVERNMENT CONTROLLED HEALTHCARE WOULD AUTOMATICALLY MOVE THE DECISION FROM THE DOCTOR AND YOU TO GOVERNMENT BUREAUCRATS.
WHAT ABOUT THE COST? IT HAS BEEN ESTIMATED IT WOULD INCREASE COST OVER $32 TRILLION OVER 10 YEARS. IT WOULD MEAN TAX INCREASES FOR ALL. NOT JUST THE RICH, BUT ALL CITIZENS DOUBLING OUR TAXES FOR INDIVIDUALS AND CORPORATIONS.
WHAT COULD THAT DO TO OUR ROBUST ECONOMY? DISASTER!
AND LASTLY IT WOULD SEE OUR FUNDS FOR MEDICAL RESEARCH DRY UP AND WE WOULD LOSE OUR ABILITY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING LEADING EDGE TREATMENTS AND CURES.
VOTING FOR DEMOCRATS WOULD BRING MUCH MORE HARM THAN GOOD.
VOTE FOR REPUBLCANS, IF YOU LIKE YOUR MEDICARE AND ARE DEEMED SANE.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
|
No comments:
Post a Comment