Iran's reach is all over the globe. War is inevitable. (See 1 and 1a below.)
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With two you get egg roll? (See 2 below.)
And:
Ari makes an interesting analogy. I cannot argue with anything he said because he is right on the ball. (See 2a below.)
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My friend and fellow memo reader's New Year Message. Hope springs eternity? (See 3 below.)
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Last memo until return from Orlando with Dagny.
I know everyone who receives my memos do not always agree with me and/or what I post . However, I appreciate the fact that you read them, send me your comments and at least acknowledge I make you think a little more about things than you might otherwise. That is my main mission - to inform and challenge one to reason.
I do not laways check everything I send of others and sometimes I am guilty of sending fake stuff,
I do believe that the truth is always somewhere in between but I also stand steadfast on much of what I write myself because, after some 70 plus years of reading and observing I have, I believe, learned about what works and what has not regardless of the good intentions motivating the philosophy.
There are certain truisms that stand the test of time and formed the basis of our nation's establishment
People want freedom, democracy is more likely to bring them benefits than any other political system. Capitalism is more likely to bring wealth and diverse choices than any other economic system. It is important that man (in the generic sense) have something beyond self to aspire to and America remains the greatest hope for mankind.
In our desire to better ourselves, we often believe what is new is preferable to what has been tried and proven to be worthy and belatedly we learn the grass ain't always greener. If it is said to be new and improved, be wary. As Reagan said "trust but verify." I am not against progress but progress that turns out to be mythical is not healthy.
I also believe, strongly, we must be responsible, hopefully leave the world a better place because we have an obligation to do so and finally, we must not take advantage of others but we also have an obligation to speak out and become informed.
Elliott Abram's book deals with the interchange between human rights and democracy and whether Arab and Muslim societies can come to grips with the concepts or are they impossible because of their religious beliefs, attitudes towards women and assorted dictates that conflict with the message and demands of human rights and democracy. He cites the views of many authors, academicians and philosophers and many have serious doubts and believe, for structural reasons, the Islamists win out over democracy. This is not a pleasant prospect for future world peace as terrorism spreads and access to WMD become more attainable. Only time will tell who wins in the end.
Perhaps, for those who believe in a higher being or force how man resolves this challenge is the ultimate critical issue we all need to think about and find solutions to because, at present, we seem to be on a path towards self-destruction.
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Dick
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1) Murder Most Foul in Argentina
A judge rules that a prosecutor investigating Iran was murdered.
By The Editorial Board
Argentine prosecutor Alberto Nisman was investigating President Cristina Kirchner’s links to Iran in January 2015 when he was found dead in his Buenos Aires apartment with a gunshot wound to the head. Now a judge has ruled that he was murdered.
In 2015 Mrs. Kirchner’s secretary of security immediately declared Nisman’s death an apparent suicide. That made little sense to those who knew Nisman, in part because he was hours away from presenting evidence to Congress that Mrs. Kirchner had made a deal with Tehran to cover up Iran’s responsibility for the 1994 bombing of a Buenos Aires Jewish community center that killed 85 people.
When President Mauricio Macri took office in December 2015 he pledged that investigators would have the independence to discover the truth. The Journal reported in September that“twenty-eight government forensic experts, toiling at a secret facility for seven months, concluded” that Mr. Nisman was killed. They handed their findings to a federal court.
On Tuesday in a 656-page opinion, Argentine federal judge Julián Ercolini ruled that “the death of Prosecutor Nisman was not a suicide, and was brought about by a third party and in a painful manner.” He charged Diego Lagomarsino, who was an aide to Nisman, as an accessory to the murder.
The judge says Mr. Lagomarsino was the last person in the apartment and the bullet that killed the prosecutor came from the aide’s gun. Mr. Lagomarsino denies any role in Nisman’s death and says his boss asked him for the gun for protection.
Nisman is being vindicated in death. His thorough investigation led to the indictment of Mrs. Kirchner on treason charges earlier this month. As a sitting senator she has immunity for now but her former foreign minister, Héctor Timerman, is under house arrest. Let’s hope investigators keep following the trail to Tehran.
1a) Iran-Backed Syrian Troops Reported Just 7 Miles from Israel’s Border
Syrian troops supported by Iranian-backed militias and Hezbollah are on the verge of capturing a rebel-held village at the foot of Mt. Hermon, just seven miles from the border with Israel, The Times of Israel reported Wednesday.
Rebels in the village of Mugr al Meer report that they are being attacked by "heavy bombardments and artillery fire" from Syrian troops and their Iran-backed allies. The Syrian army reports that it has surrounded the village at the foot of Mt. Hermon, which "commands the Golan Heights."
The rebels in the village have reportedly been given 72 hours to surrender or face defeat.
Ibrahim al-Jebawi, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) official who is familiar with the situation told Reuters, “They were given 72 hours to surrender with fighters to go to Idlib or those who want to stay have to reach a settlement."
According to Hadashot news, Assad's forces and Hezbollah are considering an assault on the last significant rebel-held area in the region, Beit Jinn.
Rebel forces - including both members of the FSA and al Qaeda-affiliated fighters - are vastly outnumbered by the Syrian army and Shiite militias.
The rebels still hold some parts of Quneitra on the Golan Heights.
Addressing the threat to Israel's north, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that Israel would not allow Iran to establish a presence in Syria, telling graduates of the IDF's pilot training, "We will not allow Iranian military forces to establish bases in Syria in order to attack us and we will act to prevent the manufacture of precise and deadly weapons aimed at us."
Rebels in the village of Mugr al Meer report that they are being attacked by "heavy bombardments and artillery fire" from Syrian troops and their Iran-backed allies. The Syrian army reports that it has surrounded the village at the foot of Mt. Hermon, which "commands the Golan Heights."
The rebels in the village have reportedly been given 72 hours to surrender or face defeat.
Ibrahim al-Jebawi, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) official who is familiar with the situation told Reuters, “They were given 72 hours to surrender with fighters to go to Idlib or those who want to stay have to reach a settlement."
According to Hadashot news, Assad's forces and Hezbollah are considering an assault on the last significant rebel-held area in the region, Beit Jinn.
Rebel forces - including both members of the FSA and al Qaeda-affiliated fighters - are vastly outnumbered by the Syrian army and Shiite militias.
The rebels still hold some parts of Quneitra on the Golan Heights.
Addressing the threat to Israel's north, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that Israel would not allow Iran to establish a presence in Syria, telling graduates of the IDF's pilot training, "We will not allow Iranian military forces to establish bases in Syria in order to attack us and we will act to prevent the manufacture of precise and deadly weapons aimed at us."
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2) Two Presidencies in One Year
We have spent year one with Trump of Twitter and Trump of accomplishments.
By Daniel Henninger
There is really only one question anyone asks today: What do you think of it? “It,” of course, being America’s presidency. Needless to say, one presidency wasn’t going to be enough for Donald Trump. In true Trumpian style, the New York developer has produced two presidencies in one year.
The two Trump presidencies exist as parallel universes. One is inhabited by Trump of Twitter, a character out of Rabelais’s novel “The Very Horrific Life of Great Gargantua.” Much of the American population is appalled by Trump of Twitter, who lives in a dark and deeply personal pool of feuds and fulminations. His first-year approval rating floated below 40%, while voters in Virginia and Alabama rejected his candidates, and him.
Existing alongside is a universe of solid, tangible economic success. Reporting on the season’s strong holiday retail sales, this newspaper noted that consumer confidence is at a 17-year high, with unemployment at a 17-year low—a time-frame that turns the Obama presidency into a forgotten memory.
Donald Trump entered office revved up from his victorious campaigns against Hillary Clinton, all Republican comers—and pretty much the whole wide world. It was us versus them, and “us” won.
On Jan. 20, President Trump delivered an us-versus-them inaugural speech. Later that day he declared war on the White House press.
No one should ever forget that Mr. Trump has been a career kibitzer, a nonstop source of often annoying opinion about everything. In real life you can say “enough already.” But Twitter allowed the formerly private Trump kibitzing to go mass market. On social media, nobody ever shuts up.
An atmosphere of eternal Trumpian battle and mayhem dominated the early period of the presidency. Simultaneously, however, Mr. Trump was making stellar, quality appointments to his cabinet and key White House policy roles, but it was hard amid the din to focus on them or their goals.
The White House instead came to be defined by the Bannon-Scaramucci-Priebus battles, by tales of Ivanka and Jared, and the daily bear-baitings with Sean Spicer.
For six months, Trump courtiers leaked self-destructively to a hostile press, and Mr. Trump looked less like a president than the ringleader of a traveling carnival.
It couldn’t go on, and it didn’t. In July, Mr. Trump named retired four-star Marine Gen. John Kelly as his chief of staff.
Until the Kelly appointment in July, the entire Trump government had operated in a state of constant distraction. It looked like failure. The attempt at ObamaCare reform, an attempt to legislate amid impossible tumult, was failure when three Senate Republicans voted against the bill in late July.
Mr. Kelly, who has worked in worse conditions, famously imposed discipline on the White House, but military discipline isn’t an end in itself. It exists to attain one goal: success. The relative calm Mr. Kelly’s discipline brought to the White House has allowed the successes of the parallel Trump presidency to come into focus.
This is the presidency of people Mr. Trump appointed to his government, who amid the Twitter and Mueller diversions went to work every day and executed serious policy goals: EPA’s Scott Pruitt, Betsy DeVos at Education, Interior’s Ryan Zinke, Scott Gottlieb at FDA. Add the judicial appointments. It’s a long list of accomplishment.
In the fall, Chief White House economist Kevin Hassett emerged to provide important justifications for the tax bill’s rate reductions. Less publicly, Gary Cohn, the former Goldman Sachs banker who became director of the National Economic Council amid much skepticism, has turned out to be the most ardent Democratic deregulator since Alfred Kahn was advising Jimmy Carter on getting the government out of the airline, shipping and trucking industries. (The Reagan economy reaped the benefit of this head start.)
The Democrats, who are overinvested in predicting national failure, and the media, overinvested in the Russian collusion story, will try to taunt Mr. Trump into reviving the cage-match atmospherics of the year’s first half.
It wouldn’t be the dumbest strategy, especially if Mr. Trump starts the year shooting at his own robust economy by starting trade disputes with Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea and China. But if Mr. Trump doesn’t rise to the bait, the Democrats’ carping will eventually look petulant and unattractive. Most Americans don’t want their presidency to fail utterly, but that looks increasingly to be what the party’s progressive factions are about.
For the moment, a correlation appears to exist between success and Donald Trump’s sense of calm. Yes, he still tweets, but with less unnerving animosity (as we go to press). Possibly over time, Mr. Trump will unify his two presidencies into a single venture. At year’s end, this is how a successful government is supposed to look.
2a) Too Many Flags in Trump’s First Quarter
The president advanced the ball far downfield, but thanks to penalties, he kept losing yardage.
By Ari Fleischer
The first quarter of President Trump’s term is almost over. To grade his performance in football terms, he deserves credit for moving the ball down the field over several different drives. But he has committed so many unnecessary roughness penalties, along with giving up one huge fumble, that he may have to gain 200 yards just to score one touchdown.
Mr. Trump does have to put up with biased referees. The press loves to blow the whistle on him. But face it, he earned more than a few of those penalties. The result is that despite many first-year accomplishments, opinion polls show the president isn’t getting credit for them.
The White House’s biggest political fear should be that even if the economy roars back and middle-class wages rise, it won’t help the Republicans or Mr. Trump. Many voters outside the president’s 35% base separate him from his accomplishments—and his words and tweets seem to be wearing people down.
Americans were evenly split on Mr. Trump when he came into office, with 45% approving and 45% disapproving, according to Gallup. Now the president is almost 20 points underwater, with 38% approval to 56% disapproval. Moreover, Mr. Trump’s opponents hate him more than his supporters love him. That’s a huge problem for the GOP and the president. Several special elections this year that Republicans should have won by double digits resulted in narrow GOP victories.
Normally, a first quarter like Mr. Trump’s would be worth a few touchdowns. The tax reform he signed last week was the most significant pro-growth overhaul since Ronald Reagan. It cut taxes on almost everyone, letting millions of Americans keep more of what they earn, and repealed ObamaCare’s individual mandate.
The economy is expanding by more than 3% a year, the unemployment rate is at a 17-year low, and America is exporting crude oil again. Mr. Trump’s conservative judicial appointments, including Justice Neil Gorsuch, are changing the bench for the better. Islamic State has been largely destroyed, Israel is once again a friend, and Iran has been put on notice.
But often after Mr. Trump runs a good play and picks up yardage, in comes a penalty flag, and back again he goes. Instead of running a presidency defined by policies, actions and laws, he frequently has made himself too hot to handle.
On Feb. 28, Mr. Trump gave a well-received speech to a joint session of Congress. He noted that it was Black History Month and talked about the importance of civil rights. “We are one people, with one destiny,” he declared. The speech was uplifting, unifying, conservative—and normal. Praise poured in from his base, but also from pundits, some Never Trumpers and even some Democrats.
Mr. Trump was advancing the ball. Four days later, he tweeted—without providing any evidence—that President Obama had wiretapped his phones in Trump Tower, calling it McCarthyism and citing Nixon and Watergate. Penalty flags flew.
Later the public learned that federal investigators, through a court order, had wiretapped Mr. Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort, who had an apartment in Trump Tower. But for six months, the red-hot accusatory tweet stood on its own. And since a legal court order isn’t exactly Watergate or McCarthyism, the penalty stood.
Two months later, Mr. Trump fumbled badly when he fired FBI Director James Comey. He tweeted that Mr. Comey had better hope there were “no ‘tapes’ of our conversations.” That turned out to be an empty bluff. Regardless of whether Mr. Comey was or wasn’t doing a good job, firing him was a mistake that led to Robert Mueller’s appointment as special counsel to investigate people associated with Mr. Trump’s campaign.
There is nothing wrong with a president’s using Twitter, especially to go around the mainstream press. But there is something wrong when Mr. Trump tweets to settle petty scores, such as celebrating Arnold Schwarzenegger’s firing from “The Apprentice” or saying that Mika Brzezinski was “bleeding badly from a face-lift” or retweeting the racist group Britain First. This was one unnecessary roughness penalty after another.
The tax cuts just enacted prove President Trump and the Republicans can govern. Next up could be immigration reform, a major infrastructure package, and perhaps welfare reform. Being tough and hitting opponents is part of the political game, but the lesson of the first quarter is that avoiding penalties is just as important.
Mr. Trump is capable of scoring a lot more points. As any head coach would advise, however, it won’t happen if he doesn’t show more mental discipline on the field.
Mr. Fleischer was White House press secretary for George W. Bush, 2001-03. He now leads Ari Fleischer Communications.
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