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The Road to Ceasefire Leads Through the Rafah Offensive
By Jacob Stoil & John Spencer
Have you wondered why, despite the devastation in Gaza and
massive diplomatic efforts involving many countries, Hamas
continues to refuse a ceasefire? It has a lot to do with its initial
strategy on October 7—and the United States.
When Hamas attacked and invaded Israel, it did so knowing there
would be a massive response by Israel and an operation into
Gaza. It knew many Gazan civilians would die, indeed they
counted on it, referring to their population as "nation of martyrs"
and taking pride in their sacrifices to further Hamas' military goals.
The military strategy for Hamas" October 7 attack was to create the
largest scale of atrocity possible and survive Israel's counter attack.
Then, having survived, it intended to build up for many more
October 7 attacks, all with the aim of achieving its grand strategic
goal: the destruction of Israel and the death of the Jewish people.
Ghazi Hamad, a senior Hamas political leader, stated as
much, saying, Israel is a country that has no place on our
land. We must remove that country ... the Al-Aqsa Flood is
just the first time, and there will be a second, third, and fourth.
Will we pay a price? Yes, and we are ready to pay it.
Hamas' hope is that repeated attacks like October 7 will
eventually break the will of the Israeli population. To do that,
Hamas would need to survive the war.
Hamas' defenses in Gaza were built to hold the Israeli Defense
Forces (IDF) in the eastern areas of Gaza. The defense also relied
on the hundreds of miles of tunnels that Hamas had built under the
civilian areas, protected sites, and infrastructure of Gaza. In the
offensive in North Gaza, the IDF achieved operational surprise and
performed well on the battlefield. As a result, Hamas' defenses did
not hold as well as they hoped, so Hamas embraced a temporary
ceasefire and returned almost half the hostages. During that
ceasefire, Hamas evacuated the remaining hostages and much of
their leadership to hide among the concentration of civilians in the
remaining uncleared areas of Gaza such as Rafah.
In the meantime, pressure at home and the suffering of Gazans
led the United States to put pressure on Israel to change
operations during the fighting in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza,
by employing a much lighter force package. For the first time,
Hamas could see a way forward.
If the United States could be made uncomfortable enough with the
continuing of the war against Hamas, then it would put more
pressure on Israel to wind down operations. Egypt, in part, was
inadvertently aiding in Hamas' strategy when they closed their
border to Palestinian civilians. This trapped Gazans in the combat
zone and guaranteed that, despite Israel and the international
communist efforts with humanitarian aid, there would be little
relief to Gazans suffering.
While multiple countries joined Israel's efforts to increase the
amount of aid going into different parts of Gaza, to include airdrops
and now a seaport, there will always be limitations while Hamas
continues to hold the hostages and attack the IDF. Hamas actions
to limit the aid to Palestinians continues to increase the likelihood
that the United States will demand further restrictions on
Israel–especially on operating in Rafah.
So why has Hamas refused a ceasefire now in Gaza?
Simple: They think their strategy is going to work.
They believe the United States will keep Israel out of Rafah, or that
if Israel operates in Rafah, it will risk a strategic rupture with its
only ally in the United Nations Security Council. Either way, Hamas
potentially walks away with a strategic victory.
Without operations in Rafah, Israel will be forced to accept
outlandish demands for the return of the hostages. Moreover,
Hamas will survive and emerge as the only Palestinian
organization to defeat Israel.
As it becomes increasingly clear that the United States has
little stomach for an Israeli incursion into Rafah, Hamas has
no reason to negotiate the terms of a ceasefire. It does not
care about the interest of the Gazans. Hamas can maximize its
gains with faith that the United States will ultimately impose a
ceasefire on Israel. In the unlikely event that the Hamas
assumptions about the United States start to prove false, they
could attempt further delays of the Israeli offensive into
southern Gaza by coming back to the table.
Without the realistic threat of an Israeli operation in Rafah,
Hamas has no reason to seek a ceasefire, and given Hamas'
strategy, there can be no truly lasting ceasefire if Hamas can
return to control Gaza.
As long as the United States seems opposed to an Israeli entry
into Rafah, Hamas leadership can sleep relatively soundly in their
tunnels and refuse to negotiate.
Ultimately, Hamas strategy and unwillingness to negotiate is
entirely dependent on the United States acting as Hamas
wants—an outcome that looks increasingly likely. This means that
the key actor in determining whether Hamas will come to the table
and whether a ceasefire is possible is not Israel but the United
States.
In other words, while the road to a lasting ceasefire in Gaza may
run through Rafah, its first stop is in Washington.
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Dr. Jacob Stoil is the Chair of Applied History at the West Point
Modern War Institute (MWI), Assistant Director of the Second
World War Research Group (North America), Trustee of the U.S.
Commission for Military History, and a founding member of the
International Working Group on Subterranean Warfare.
John Spencer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War
Institute (MWI) at West Point, codirector of MWI's Urban Warfare
Project and host of the "Urban Warfare Project Podcast" He
served for 25 years as an infantry soldier, which included two
combat tours in Iraq. He is the author of the book Connected
Soldiers: Life, Leadership, and Social Connection in Modern War
and co-author of Understanding Urban Warfare.
The Israel-Hamas conflict halted those talks. Hamas, with support from Saudi Arabia's mutual enemy, Iran, perfectly timed its attack to undermine a normalization pact between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
We cannot afford to let Iran and Hamas derail what would be a critically beneficial relationship for all sides. America needs to proactively seek out an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia is in a unique position. The country's oil wealth has given it a tremendous amount of influence and independence. America and China are both heavily invested in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis purchase more than $100 billion worth of weapons and defense equipment from the US each year.
To capitalize on this unique standing, Saudi Arabia could lead the way in revitalizing Gaza post-conflict. By focusing on reconstruction, infrastructure development, and humanitarian assistance, Saudi Arabia can ensure that support for the Palestinian people is used constructively, avoiding the pitfalls of previous aid efforts that inadvertently empowered Hamas.
If the US and Israel want to expand the Abraham Accords in the wake of the Israel-Hamas conflict, they must start with Saudi Arabia.
These factors give Saudi Arabia a weight that other regional actors lack. If the US and Israel want to expand the Abraham Accords in the wake of the Israel-Hamas conflict, they must start with Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis have three broad strategic objectives: Increasing their stature on the international stage, becoming less reliant on oil revenue, and countering Iran.
Saudi Arabia has captured headlines recently with the acquisition of major sports franchises, tournaments, and players in an attempt to make itself an international cultural force. A major obstacle has been a reputation for oppression and human rights violations.
By utilizing its wealth and influence to help revitalize the Palestinian people, Saudi Arabia would become a true global ambassador.
Neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority is qualified to lead the Palestinian people. Saudi Arabia, perhaps working alongside more moderate and technocratic Palestinians, could offer both financial stability and leadership support. It would gain a stake and say in the future of the Palestinian people. The money that the Saudis would invest would not be used to fund Hamas, like previous aid from Arab countries, but for reconstruction, infrastructure, and humanitarian assistance.
Stabilizing the Middle East also makes sense from an economic perspective. Saudi Arabia needs foreign investors to diversify its oil-dependent economy. A peaceful and stable Middle East, forged mainly by the Saudis, would go a long way towards increasing investments.
The final factor to consider in a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia is Iran. Iran is a mortal enemy of both Israel and Saudi Arabia. Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has been involved in a war against the Houthis, an Iranian proxy, in Yemen. Although there is currently a ceasefire in place, Saudi Arabia and Iran remain deeply hostile towards each other.
An Israeli-Saudi peace agreement would further those two countries' ability to counter Iran and confront the Houthi threat.
Recently, the Houthis have been attacking ships in the Red Sea and disrupting international commerce, as well as firing missiles and drones at Israel. An Israeli-Saudi peace agreement would further those two countries' ability to counter Iran and confront the Houthi threat.
Another significant benefit to an Israeli-Saudi accord would be the possibility of realizing the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
IMEC would consist of a ship-rail-transit network from India across the Middle East to Europe, and would include both Israel and Saudi Arabia. The railway would boost economic growth in the region and beyond, provide an alternative to shipping goods through the Red Sea or around the Cape of Good Hope, and stand as a bulwark against China's Belt and Road initiative.
IMEC has been put on hold due to the Israel-Hamas war. However, it is another long-term benefit that can be accrued through an Israeli-Saudi deal.
The United States must seize this moment to broker a deal that leverages Saudi Arabia's potential as a stabilizing force and a beacon of progress in the Middle East. Such an agreement would not only be in America's interest, but would also herald a new chapter of peace and prosperity for the entire region.
Gregg Roman is director of the Middle East Forum and a former official at the Israeli Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense.
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Throughout the world, education is the critical element missing in most underperforming nations and America caught the virus some 60 years ago. Now, it must dig it's way out or it will simply decline further.
Even if it takes a hammer, use it on the Palestinians. They have hard heads, not much by way of brains and hard hearts.
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For a Bright Post-Hamas Future, Gaza Needs Education Reform |
If Gaza is to have a brighter future after the war between Israel and Hamas is over, one of the key ingredients for this renewed society must be education reform, focused on democracy, de-radicalization, and normalization between Israelis and Palestinians.
If not, the stage will be set for future years of war and terrorism.
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I would like to attend the attached but I do not believe anything I hear from those who were once in our government and particularly the CIA.
My cynicism has proven very good and I know it is a shame but I also know my government no longer cares about me so why should I care about what former bureaucrats have to say?
Sad but I would rather start reading Seamus Bruner's book: "Controligarchs."
I trust him and what he has to say about the Rockefeller Foundation, Zuckerberg, Bezos, Soros, Klaus Schwab, Larry Fink , John Brennan and all the corrupt DAVOS crowd who want to destroy my life, my freedom, my nation.
It is evident they have already corrupted the Justice Department, IRS, FBI and CIA.
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REMINDER
We are excited to offer our next
program on Thursday, March 21 at 7:30pm ET.
Social Time Starts at 7:00pm
Kristin Wood, Former Fellow on the Intelligence Project at Harvard University Kennedy School Belfer Center and former Chief of Innovation and Technology at the CIA Open Source Center will present:
"The Role of Open Source Information in U.S. National Security"
With enormous amounts of data commercially available today, it’s not just the intelligence community that has access to information that can be vital to our national security. Information about what governments and private individuals are doing is in the hands of private companies via satellites and social media, and it is growing. Could effective use of such data help make us more secure? Should our government have an entity to evaluate this “open-source data” to inform our decision making on national security issues? What should be the relationship between government and the private sector when it comes to the information that is gathered? How can key data be protected? One of America’s leading and most thoughtful experts on these crucial questions, Kristin Wood, will help us decipher the issues and will offer recommendations. A 20-year veteran of the CIA, recent fellow at Harvard University and now the CEO of her own tech startup, Kristin will provide her insights on using private sector open and commercial data to help meet our country’s international challenges..
We will meet at the Skidaway Community Church
(Previously known as the Skidaway Island Presbyterian Church)
50 Diamond Causeway, Savannah 3141
The program will be recorded for later viewing on the SCWA YouTube channel, but WILL NOT be Live Streamed.
Pre-program social time (coffee & cookies) will start at 7:00pm.
Our regular $10 per guest program fee will apply for this presentation.
There will be a Q&A session at the end of Ms. Wood's presentation.
Kristin Wood is a leading voice in the open-source community, advocating for harnessing the power of private-sector open and commercial data to better understand the world, its opportunities, and its challenges. She spent 20 years at the CIA, where she worked and led teams following five wars, delivered the Presidential Daily Brief (PDB) to senior Administration officials, and gained extensive experience in high-consequence analysis, operations, and open-source innovation and technology. Ms. Wood was selected for the Agency’s Senior Intelligence Service and finished her career at the CIA as the Deputy Director of the Innovation & Technology Group at the CIA’s Open Source Center.
Currently, Ms. Wood is the CEO and co-founder of August Interactive, a deep tech start-up gaming studio that is building personalized, immersive games with purpose, offering players positive outcomes, new skills, and a deeper connection to their communities. She believes gaming and extended reality are critical to our economic future.
Ms. Wood serves on the advisory boards of numerous deep tech start-ups and venture capital firms. She recently completed a fellowship at the Intelligence Project at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs where she focused on climate and the art of the possible for open source. She is an emeritus advisory board member for the International Spy Museum.
Ms. Wood graduated from Occidental College with an A.B. in Political Science.
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