My Mis-match Thesis Might Be Valid. More Like A Trickle. What Does It Take?

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WHAT WE WITNESSED THIS PAST TUESDAY IS MY MIS-MATCH THESIS IN ACTION. AFTER 2 YEARS AMERICAN'S HAD THEIR ONE DAY CHANCE TO SEND THEIR MESSAGE TO THOSE WHO SPEND THEIR TIME 24/7 MAKING SURE AMERICA IS DSTROYED.

I AM WRITING THIS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AT 7PM AND DO NOT HAVE A CLUE AS TO THE ELECTION RESULTS.  If a tattooed zombie like Fetterman can become an electable candidate then something is seriously wrong with our judgement.

MY VIEW IS THAT REPUBLICANS WILL CAPTURE BOTH THE HOUSE AND SENATE BECAUSE WHAT RADICAL DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN SELLING, SINCE BIDEN WAS ELECTED, IS ILLOGICAL AND NOT WHAT AMERICAN'S WANT.

IF I PROVE WRONG THEN I ALSO BELIEVE YOU CAN KISS AMERICA GOODBYE.

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Abrams Has A DEVIOUS Plan For Her Loss

Nothing is over until it’s over... +++++++++++++++++++++++ Welcome to Byron York's Daily Memo newsletter. Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here to receive the newsletter. DID GOP OPTIMISM OUTRUN REALITY? Even as votes continue to be counted, the big picture that is emerging from midterm results around the country is that, as predicted, it appears Republicans will win control of the House of Representatives. That's a big deal. Even if the GOP controls only one chamber of Congress, President Joe Biden's legislative agenda is dead. A Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), should McCarthy realize his ambition to run the House, is not going to help the president pass any big legislative priority. That will be a momentous change in Washington. But in the final days and weeks of the campaign, Republicans began to hope for more. An optimism grew among GOP insiders that the party could capture the Senate, as well. First, they began to believe that Republicans could hold on to the toss-up seats they currently control — Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The first three they felt very confident about, and the final one, Pennsylvania, they knew would be difficult. But as time went by, especially after Democrat John Fetterman's poor performance in the Oct. 25 debate with Republican Mehmet Oz, GOP strategists began to feel increasingly confident about winning Pennsylvania, too. Then, once Republicans successfully defended their current seats, the thinking went, all they had to do was win at least one of the vulnerable Democratic seats in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. If the GOP lost Pennsylvania, it would have to win two of those, but some Republicans were confident they could do that, too. As time went by, some in the GOP became even more confident, believing they had a good chance to win New Hampshire, which had earlier seemed out of reach. Some even thought they could take Washington state, which had seemed even farther out of reach. In the big picture, they predicted Republicans would win control of the Senate with 52, 53, 54, or maybe even more seats. Now, it appears the GOP will be doing well to win control of the Senate at all, even with a bare 51-seat majority. And it is entirely possible that Democrats will keep control. First, the Republican hold-your-own states turned out to be much more difficult than optimistic Republicans had thought. Yes, in Ohio, Republican J.D. Vance won a solid victory over Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), reflecting the state's continued move toward red-state status. But in Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) had a much more difficult time with Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes than many in the GOP envisioned. The same with Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC) versus Democrat Cheri Beasley in North Carolina, although Budd was declared the winner around midnight. And in Pennsylvania, the state that attracted the most attention and passion from both parties, Fetterman defeated Oz. So just holding on to Republican states was a struggle. Needless to say, the pie-in-the-sky states, New Hampshire and Washington state, were hard, too. Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) easily won reelection against Republican Don Bolduc in New Hampshire — so much for that GOP hope. In Washington, Democratic Sen. Patty Murray won decisively over GOP challenger Tiffany Smiley, whose strong performance nevertheless earned her a lot of good reviews in Republican circles. And then there were the big three potential pickups, Republicans' best chance to gain ground in the Senate. In Georgia, many Republicans believed Herschel Walker's status as a University of Georgia football legend gave him a reserve of goodwill and support that Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) just could not beat. As of late night, the race was essentially tied, with neither candidate likely to break the 50%-plus-one-vote standard required by Georgia law. If the race ends that way, there will be a runoff between the two on Dec. 6. That left Arizona and Nevada. Significant portions of results in both states were still unknown when this story was filed. But the GOP's experience around the country on Tuesday night suggested that each would be difficult, especially for Republican Adam Laxalt in Nevada. There were some bright spots for Republicans. The brightest was the state of Florida, in which Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) easily won reelection, as did GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis. DeSantis, in particular, emerged from election night in a powerful position not only to press forward with his agenda in the state but to enter the 2024 Republican presidential primary race if he chooses. But overall, the reality of the 2022 midterm elections fell short of the optimistic scenarios Republicans had increasingly come to embrace. Their optimism leaked into the general conversation about the elections, as well, even though many polls showed several contests as too close to call. Fairly early on Tuesday night, MSNBC's Chris Hayes described what he called "a narrative that became increasingly untethered from the data" — in other words, a media narrative that leaned increasingly toward predictions of a Republican wave when underlying polls did not necessarily support that conclusion. In the end, for many Republicans, that narrative might have been driven more by hope than anything else. +++++++++++++++++++++++++ More like a trickle. This does not bode well for our republic if the deplorables cannot do more. Where were the coat-tails?  The false dreams/hopes of socialism has dug deeper than I thought.  Yes, Mc Carthy can disrupt Biden's agenda but that is not what American's need or will satiate their concerns. Perhaps my fear of Republicans having moved themselves into a corner will prove prophetic. If historic inflation, crime, border invasion, decline in education and military ability etc. does not concern Americans and make for a greater political earthquake, then what the hell does it take? +++ That Was No Wave ERICK-WOODS ERICKSON   Sorry to have to be the bearer of bad news. But what happened last night did not seem to be in the cards for anyone. The recriminations on the GOP are starting after a week of Democrats attacking each other for losing. No one saw that coming. Headed into election day, Democrats had started attacking each other. Late yesterday, they were already throwing White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain under the bus. The turnout data in a number of states showed Democrat voting underperforming. What happened is that the Florida GOP turnout was so overwhelming it almost hid everything else. What happened last night was the best showing of an incumbent party since 2002. The Democrats are track to lose the House, but barely. And the Senate may hold to 50-50. There are no apparent indications of fraud or theft, though some Republicans who expected a big night are already rushing there. Instead, there is something very obvious. This is the United States Balkanizing Our united states seem more and more like a forced coalition of people who do not like each other. Working-class neighborhoods of nonwhite voters shifted a bit to the right. White, rich neighborhoods that had long propped up the GOP shifted hard left. In Republican states, the GOP did well. In Democrat states, the Democrats fared well. Republicans helped the Democrats in Maryland get the Governor’s Mansion. Democrats in Florida and Georgia voted for DeSantis and Kemp. This election is our nation fracturing before our eyes where both sides are increasingly unwilling to live with each other, and the nation, being so closely divided, is reflected in our congressional vote. Yugoslavia was a country of countries forced together. Over years, that nation, forced together with the force of dictatorship, began to break apart into small nations that went to war with each other for freedom. That concept of these small Balkan region nations splintering from Yugoslavia is what is happening in this nation, though hopefully without a war. Americans simply do not like other Americans and have lost the ability to get along with one another at a regional level. Where Do We Stand? It looks like we may have the status quo, but with a GOP barely in charge of the House instead of the Democrats. A small, fractious party majority for the GOP probably cannot be led by Kevin McCarthy, but God help whoever leads. Democrats got a few surprise pickups that hint to a larger pattern. Republicans did flip a few swing seats, including in Virginia, where Democrat turnout did underperform. The Senate looks like it could be back to 50-50 or decided by a runoff in Georgia. Adam Laxalt does look on track to win Nevada, but it is too soon to tell. Pennsylvanians really did decide to go with a native vegetable over a transplanted New Jerseyian. Polling in Arizona vastly overstated performances for the GOP. In fact, partisan Republican polling was so terrible it painted a rosier picture for the GOP and hid a lot of what was happening, even in the polling averages. A bright spot was Florida. The GOP has now turned that state bright red. That helps them with an Electoral College advantage in two years. The bottom line is that voters hate everybody, and candidate quality matters. GOP, You Must Be Done With Trump This has to be a key takeaway. Ron DeSantis, Greg Abbott, and Brian Kemp all did very well. They did well as their own men in their own right. The voters thoroughly rejected trump-backed candidates. Bo Hines, the young man in North Carolina who Trump backed, got beaten in a Republican district drawn for a Republican to win. Kari Lake, whose campaign actually impressed me in Arizona, may not pull through now. In Pennsylvania, it is undisputed that Trump’s endorsement of Mehmet Oz pushed Oz across the finish line in the primary, and Pennsylvania would rather Fetterman than Oz. Trump really owns that one. The pattern is too noticeable. Trump-backed candidates were very, very weak and many of them lost. Traditional Republican candidates won. The GOP could have done much better had it picked better candidates. Candidate quality matters, and Trump picked bad candidates. Barely An Okay Night The data headed into the election suggested the GOP was headed to a good night. The data and even the Democrats expected it. But voters were having none of the GOP’s unique offerings. Where the GOP offered mainstream candidates who had no Trump baggage, the voters embraced the candidate. The GOP looks like it is going to win the House. The Senate looks like it’ll probably be tied and need a runoff in Georgia to decide it. In Georgia, every Republican candidate running statewide was swept into office. Kemp got higher margins than his last race. Kemp outperformed a lot of the public polling. Walker underperformed. Bright red counties for Kemp were light pink for Walker. Voters could not pull the trigger on Trump’s chosen candidate. This should be a wake up call for the GOP base and donors. Resist the urge to hide your head and claim the election was stolen. Do instead what voters are asking — clean up your house. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Here are six takeaways:    The Senate is undecided and will take a while to know. Democrats flipped Pennsylvania and Republicans now need a net gain of two pickups to take the Senate.   Republicans underperformed in the House, and there’s going to be a lot of finger-pointing. They're looking at a possible net gain of only about eight seats, which is on the low end of forecasters’ projections. This could threaten Republican House Leader Kevin McCarthy’s plans to be speaker of the House.  There’s also going to be blame directed at Trump. The former president weighed in heavily on these elections, but a lot of his candidates underperformed, raising questions about how effective his brand is in purple states.  Florida might be the new Ohio. The state that decided the 2000 election and has been a swing state since is looking like it’s firmly in GOP hands now with wins by Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio.  Democrats appear to slip again with Latino voters. Despite a decent night overall, exit polls showed Democrats won about 60% of Latinos overall, down from 65% in 2020, which was already considered a decline.  The cross-currents of this election between abortion rights and inflation were real. Abortion rights clearly fired up voters who cast ballots for Democrats and helped stem a Republican wave. Abortion rights appear to have succeeded in the four states where they were on the ballot, including in Michigan and Kentucky. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++