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I EXPRESSED MY VIEW THAT BIDEN WOULD DO NOTHING TO ASSIST THE IRANIANS AND THAT NOW WOULD BE THE PERFECT TIME TO RID IRAN OF THEIR NUCLEAR DREAM.
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With 86% of votes tallied, Netanyahu headed for decisive comeback victory
Near-complete results give Likud leader’s bloc 65 seats, with far-right set to gain unprecedented sway; landscape could change if Meretz, Balad cross threshold, but seen unlikely
By Michael Bachner
As the ballots in the Knesset election were being tallied Wednesday, all signs were pointing to a resounding victory for opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu and his bloc of right-wing, far-right and religious parties, a result that would end a political crisis that has seen five general elections held in under four years.
With some 86 percent of the votes counted, the bloc of parties loyal to Netanyahu was predicted to win 65 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, a comfortable majority.
The numbers were expected to shift as officials had yet to begin tallying the so-called double-envelope ballots cast by members of security forces, prisoners, people with disabilities, diplomats serving abroad, and others, but significant change to the balance between Netanyahu’s bloc and its opponents was not seen as likely.
The coalition shaping up to be Israel’s next is made up of Netanyahu’s Likud party, ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, and the far-right Religious Zionism party led by Bezalel Smotrich, which includes extremist Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit faction.
Ben Gvir is seen as the biggest star of the election, having gone from leading a fringe party to becoming a popular leader in a party representing some 10% of Israeli voters.
If the results don’t change significantly, it would mark a stunning comeback for Netanyahu, currently on trial in three corruption cases, and end four years of political stalemates that have dragged the country through a series of elections.
But critics warn that it could also hand power to ultra-nationalists such as Ben Gvir and his political partner Bezalal Smotrich, who could strip Arab citizens of rights, defang the Supreme Court and pass legislation that will do away with Netanyahu’s legal woes, and ratchet up societal divisions.
Critical remaining factor was the fate of the left-wing Meretz party and the hardline Arab party Balad, which were both hovering barely under the 3.25% minimal electoral threshold. Meretz was predicted to get 3.19% while Balad was at 3.01%, meaning that as it stands, both parties will not be in the next Knesset.
The only scenario that could thwart the Netanyahu bloc’s majority is if both Meretz and Balad end up above the threshold and if fellow left-wing Labor party — currently at 3.57% — doesn’t fall below it. Channel 12 pollster Mano Gevo said Wednesday morning that the overall division of seats between the blocs was unlikely to change significantly, although further shifts in party totals were possible.
Hebrew media reported that Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party was already preparing for a possible power transition, with Lapid intending to phone Netanyahu as soon as the final results are published, which could take several days.
Facing potential political oblivion, Meretz MK Mossi Raz told Army Radio Wednesday morning: “What we are seeing are partial results. We maintain cautious optimism. We will continue to represent our voters, even if outside the coalition or outside the Knesset.”
Meanwhile, an unnamed senior Labor politician was quoted lashing out against party leader Merav Michaeli following Labor’s apparent poor showing.
The party member said Labor — the ruling party during Israel’s first few decades and a major political force until a few years ago — was saved by party loyalists who voted for Labor despite Michaeli, the Ynet news site reported.
“We expect her to draw the obvious conclusions, otherwise we will send her home,” he said. “It is unbelievable that the Labor Party is struggling to cross the electoral threshold. Merav is a colossal failure and disconnected from reality.”
Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben Gvir speaks to supporters at the far-right party’s campaign headquarters after the results of exit polls are announced, November 1, 2022. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
On the other side of the political divide, Ben Gvir told reporters that he would work for all the people of Israel.
Ben Gvir vowed to be part of a “completely right-wing” government, but added: “I want to say that I’ll work for all of Israel, even those who hate me.”
Earlier in the morning, Netanyahu himself told supporters that he was “on the cusp of a huge victory,” promising a government that would restore pride to Israel and make it strong again.
“If the actual results reflect the exit polls, I’ll set up a national government that will look after all the citizens of Israel,” he told supporters, using a word for that is also used to describe nationalist sentiment.
Speaking shortly before Netanyahu, his chief rival Lapid refused to concede defeat, telling party faithful in Tel Aviv to wait until all votes were counted and saying his Yesh Atid party had secured record levels of support.
“They want politics not based on hate and incitement,” Lapid said of his voters.
One party that fell well below the threshold was Ayelet Shaked’s Jewish Home, which ran with a pro-Netanyahu campaign but was met with little support due to anger among its potential voter base over Shaked having joined the current government that ousted Netanyahu last year after 12 years in power.
Jewish Home only got 1.17% of the votes, according to the non-final results, but a report by Channel 12 news claimed that Shaked running until the end had been coordinated with Netanyahu, in an attempt to increase the general vote count, thus increasing the number of votes needed to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold and potentially helping to sink some rival parties.
On Tuesday night, exit polls from Israel’s major networks gave Netanyahu a clear path back to power, with 62 seats between his Likud faction, the far-right Religious Zionism and the Haredi parties Shas and United Torah Judaism. At least 61 seats are needed to secure a majority and form a government in the 120-seat Knesset.
As pollsters revised their findings and early returns began to come in overnight, the numbers shifted more in Netanyahu’s favor.
A supporter of Benjamin Netanyahu known as Liran Grey-Shirt celebrates the election exit polls at the Likud party headquarters in Jerusalem, November 1, 2022. (AP/Tsafrir Abayov)
Israel has been rocked by political turmoil since a Netanyahu-led government fell apart in late 2018. Two rounds of elections, in April 2019 and September 2019, failed to yield a winner, and a short-lived unity government formed after the third vote in March 2020 collapsed after less than a year.
Starting in June 2021, Lapid’s unlikely coalition, which he helmed with his predecessor as premier Naftali Bennett, managed to push Netanyahu from power after over a decade, but the alliance, which included right-wing Yamina and Islamist Ra’am, struggled to overcome deep ideological divisions and collapsed, partly due to pressure from Netanyahu and his allies.
Times of Israel staff contributed to this
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The Fed raises rates another 75 basis points … Powell signals a slowdown, but sounds very hawkish … today’s market from a 30,000-foot perspective … where do we go from here?
Today, in a widely-expected move, the Federal Reserve raised rates by another 75 basis points.
The fed funds target range now stands at 3.75% to 4.00%, which is the highest it’s been since 2008.
The rate hike itself wasn’t today’s primary focal point. Investors were far more interested in hints of a policy change in the days ahead. Well, they got it…but it wasn’t the answer they wanted.
The new policy statement included this hint at a slowdown:
[The Fed] will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.
And in his live press conference after the statement’s release, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell answered the question du jour, saying:
…I’ve said at the last two press conferences that at some point it will be important to slow the pace of increases.
So that time is coming, and it may come as soon as the next meeting or the one after that. No decision has been made.
But that was about as dovish as Powell sounded. His overall comments were decidedly hawkish.
Here are additional selected comments from Powell’s press conference:
Data since September suggest the “ultimate” level to which rates will go will be higher than 4.6%, which was the expectation at the Fed’s September meeting.
“We have some ground to cover” to move interest rates higher.
“I don’t think we have overtightened.”
It is “very premature” to think about pausing rate hikes.
“I don’t see the case for real softening just yet” in the labor market.
It is “still possible” for the Fed to achieve a soft landing, but the path has “narrowed.”
Overall, while today brought the hint of a slowdown that Wall Street wanted, Powell’s hawkishness was the b
As I write shortly before the closing bell, all three indices are selling off, with the Nasdaq down the most at -2.9%.
Divergence came for investors during the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, the Dot-Com crash, and Black Monday in 1987. Today, Luke Lango – a self-made millionaire and investing prodigy – says this event is just ahead in 2022. If you’re holding onto cash, you’re in for a rude awakening. Get the facts here.
So, where does all of this leave us?
Let’s forget the Fed a moment and step back. We’ll begin our analysis with a 30,000-foot perspective.
Below, we look at the S&P 500 over the last 20 years. I’ve added a trendline that attempts to capture the long-term average growth of the index.
Take a look before we add commentary.
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Based on this chart, was the market surge from the pandemic-low of 2020 through the market-high at the start of this year in line with the long-term trendline?
Clearly not.
It was an above-trendline, steep sloping bubble, inflated by trillions of dollars of new liquidity.
With this long-term perspective, it’s clear that this year’s bear market hasn’t resulted in a historic “deep discount” buying opportunity from a valuation/long-term average perspective.
All the bear market has done is bleed off the excess gains from 2020 through January 2022. And let’s not argue that that those gains weren’t excessive.
At the height of the bullishness, the S&P’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) hit roughly 38. That was the third highest reading ever. For perspective, according to multpl.com, the long-term average P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 15.98.
Today, the S&P’s P/E ratio has fallen all the way back to 20.03. Yes, that’s a huge drop. But with a long-term orientation that includes today’s P/E of 20 and the S&P’s multi-decade trendline we just looked at, current S&P prices do not scream “low valuation buying opportunity.”
At best, broad market valuations have gone from highly-above average to average (based on the 20-year trendline). At worst, valuations remain 25% overvalued (based on the P/E ratio).
So, the idea that “we’re due for a huge bull run because of the double-digit market losses this year” completely misses the point – this year’s losses have simply bled out the price excess, returning us to the multi-decade average trendline.
I’m not saying the market can’t go on a new bull run. But if it does, it will be sentiment-based, not fundamentals-based.
“But Jeff, the P/E multiple uses old earnings. That’s ancient history. You should be using forward-looking earnings. That will show our valuation edge.”
Fair enough. Let's do that.
Are earnings estimates correct, or are they inflated and setting up more stock market pain?
So, what do we know about the S&P’s valuation based on forward earnings estimates?
Well, let’s go to FactSet, which is the earnings data analytics company used by the pros. From their most recent update last Friday:
The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 16.3, which is below the 5-year average (18.5) and below the 10-year average (17.1).
However, it is above the forward P/E ratio of 15.2 recorded at the end of the third quarter (September 30), as the price of the index has increased while the forward 12-month EPS estimate has decreased since September 30.
So, today’s forward 12-month P/E ratio is below its 5- and 10-year average. The bull party is on!
Not so fast. Four issues:
One, both the 5- and 10-year averages include many years of major bull market pricing that skew the averages up.
Two, even if we ignore that upward skew, a forward P/E of 16 isn’t wildly below the other two averages of 17 and 18.5. So, it’s not as though we’re primed for a roaring bull thanks to a basement valuation.
Three, these 12-month forward-looking P/E estimates come from very fallible, historically inaccurate humans. Analyst estimates can be woefully wrong… in fact, they’re usually wrong.
Investopedia reports that, on average, forward earnings estimates are about 10% higher than where earnings come in.
Some studies put the number far higher.
For example, a paper written in 2016 called An Empirical Study of Financial Analysts Earnings Forecast Accuracy put the overestimation at 25%.
Such inaccurate bullish estimates have played out all year long. As just one illustration, here’s Fortune from last month:
On Sept. 23, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end target on the S&P 500 for the fourth time in 2022.
Goldman’s new estimate is 3600, a number that’s 29% below the 5100 mark it was forecasting as late as mid-February.
These are the “experts” getting it wrong four times so far this year.
Clearly, whether it’s a price-target for the S&P or a 12-month earnings forecast, we have to take such estimates with an enormous grain of salt.
But now, let’s quadruple that salt grain as we turn to our fourth point…
How accurately are forward-looking earnings estimates factoring in the potential for a recession?
Let’s repeat this snippet from FactSet:
[Today’s forward 12-month P/E ratio of 16.3] is above the forward P/E ratio of 15.2 recorded at the end of the third quarter (September 30), as the price of the index has increased while the forward 12-month EPS estimate has decreased since September 30.
Got that?
While earnings forecasts have been dropping, the S&P has been climbing.
Aren’t stock prices supposed to reflect earnings?
Before you answer, let’s throw in the extra monkey wrench of a looming recession.
If a recession is coming next year, which many experts are predicting (Bloomberg just put the odds at 100%), then it seems fair to say that earnings during that recession will be lower than earnings today, when we’re not in a recession.
So, how are estimates looking?
According to FactSet, analysts expect calendar year 2023 earnings for the S&P to be $235.61. For greater context, analysts are suggesting that this year’s final earnings number will be $221.65.
So, consensus has it that earnings will grow 6.3% next year.
How realistic is that earnings growth if we’re in the middle of a recession?
Here’s wealth management group DA Davidson with some historical context:
It is important for investors to know during recessions that economic downturns create challenges for corporate profits, and S&P 500 earnings growth turned negative in each of the past ten recessions.
S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) declines, from peak to trough, ranged from -4.6% in the 1980 recession, to -91.9% during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) from 2007 to 2009.
The average earnings decline across all ten recessions was -29.5%.
Again, consensus calls for earnings growth of 6.3% next year.
To be fair, not all analysts are upping their 2023 estimates.
From Forbes:
…At least one market strategist, Marko Kolanovic, JP Morgan’s Chief Global Markets Strategist, has his 2022 earnings estimate at $225, slightly above consensus, but decreased his 2023 forecast recently from $240 to $225, and flat year over year.
I suspect other analysts have either decreased their 2023 projections or will do so over the next few months.
This will create a headwind for stocks to move higher.
Now, given our skepticism about the accuracy of the analyst community, we don’t want to assign more weight to Kolanovic’s forecast than any other.
So, let’s fall back upon logic…
What seems more likely to you when we evaluate the broad market?
An earnings contraction during a recession? Or earnings growth during a recession?
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Ultra-Wealthy Farmer Says “Wake Up America”
By Mike Palmer, Partner, Stansberry Research
He’s one of the most successful businessmen in America over the past 50 years…
Who converted his wealth into more than a half-dozen properties around the globe, including a massive ranch in Argentina and three properties in Europe.
And today, he’s coming forward with an urgent warning for Americans. He says:
“I believe it falls on someone like me to warn you… clearly… and without distraction.
I can do this now because I’m too rich to care about money… and too old to care about what anyone says about me.
In short, our good fortune of the past 50 years is about to take a major turn, as two inevitable trends careen towards each other, like runaway freight trains on the same track.
This collision will bring about some of the most difficult years in American history.
Most will pay no attention to my warning. Even fewer will take the basic steps I recommend. And that’s fine. I have no interest in telling anyone what to do.
But I know for a small group, this warning could be life changing.”
Click here for the full warning—we’ve posted the entire message on our website for you to view free of charge.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW HIS PREDICTION
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I BELIEVE URBAN SOCCER MOM'S ARE DESERTING THE DEMOCRATS. I BELIEVE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 5% OF THE BLACK VOTE WILL DESERT THE DEMOCRAT PARTY AND AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 10% OF THE HISPANIC VOTE WILL DESERT THE DEMOCRAT PARTY AND THE ACCUMULATED EFFECT WILL CREATE A TSUNAMI IMPACT.
INCREASED EFFORTS AT THEFT WILL OFFSET SOME OF THESE INCREMENTAL REPUBLICAN GAINS. DEMOCRATS ARE DESPARATE AND IN A PANIC MODE..
THEIR RADICAL POLICIES HAVE BACKFIRED AND BIDEN'S RESPONSE IS TO LIE ABOUT SS CUTS, ACCUS REPUBLICANS OF BEING FASCISTS AND OTHER SUCH NONSENSE. THAT DOG WILL NO LONGER HUNT BECAUSE AMERICANS ARE SUFFERING AND THEY SEE WHAT A TOTAL DISASTER BIDEN IS AS A LEADER.
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundi
YOU REAP WHAT YOU PLANT.
THE RADICAL DEMOCRAT EXPERIMENT, WITH SAUL ALINSKY'S CONCEPTS, HAS FAILED. NOW THE QUESTION BECOMES, HAVE THE REPUBLICANS BACKED THEMSELVES INTO A CORNER? WILL THEY HAVE THE WILL, ABILITY AND NUMBERS TO MAKE HEADWAY AS VOTERS WILL BE EXPECTING? STAY TUNED,
FINALLY:
The Left Were the Mad Scientists, We Were Their Lab Rats
BY Victor Davis Hanson
Once the Left took the presidency, the House, and Senate, they tried a deadly experiment on the American people.
As the midterms approach, one way of looking at America’s current disaster is that we, the American people, were lab rats. And since 2021, the Left were the mad scientists, eager to try out their crackpot leftist experiments on us.
The result is that the housing market is tottering on the verge of collapse.
As interest rates soar, our $31 trillion national debt crowds out everything else in the budget.
Inflation roars at a rate of 8-9 percent per annum, higher than at any time in 40 years. Yet the prices of the stuff of life—food, fuel, shelter, energy—are far steeper still than the official rate.
No one is safe from thugs anymore—whether a commuter on a New York subway or the Pelosis in Pacific Heights.
The country reportedly has a 25-day supply of diesel fuel—the energy source that runs the nation. Meanwhile, we keep draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve of oil—a commodity we have in abundance but refuse to produce fully.
We never fixed the supply-chain crisis of last year, and so still face shortages of key consumer goods.
The labor participation rate is at an all-time low—given fat government COVID subsidies, the Siren-song appeal of staying home after the lockdowns, fear of COVID, and millions of workers with long COVID.
The post-Kabul Pentagon is quiet about the depletion of its critical stocks of weaponry. We have sent billions of dollars’ worth in howitzer shells, javelin missiles, and Hilmar rocket launchers to Ukraine without replenishing our own arsenals. The Army’s recruitment rate is off 50 percent this year.
Our broken Navy is ossifying as China expands its fleet in expectation of absorbing Taiwan.
When we look to the president for an accounting for these madcap experiments, we get nothing. In the last few weeks, Joe Biden has lied that gas was $5 a gallon when he took office when it was half that.
He falsely swears that he passed his student-loan amnesty plan by one or two votes when he simply signed away a half-trillion dollars in debt by an executive order and bypassed Congress.
Kamala Harris is our border czar but she avoids the nonexistent southern border like the plague.
As the country depletes its petroleum reserves, she gushes about “solutions” like transforming the nation’s school bus fleet to battery power.
On the rare occasion she is allowed abroad, Harris has no idea what North Korea’s official name is—only that it is supposedly one of America’s staunchest allies.
We are now headed for a decisive midterm election. Strangely the hard-left architects of the last two years neither offer a defense of their failing agendas, nor agree to change them.
No Democratic congressional candidates brag about the 3 million people who illegally crossed an open border.
None boast that they helped cancel key pipelines, reduced federal leasing of gas and oil, and shut down the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. None take credit for hammering investments in fossil fuels.
None preen over the no-bail and defund-the-police policies of left-wing, big-city prosecutors and mayors who have spiked crime.
None insist that an annual 8-9 percent inflation rate is a desirable spreading of the wealth.
And yet odder still, no Democratic candidate, state or national—and most certainly not Joe Biden—offers to alter these toxic policies.
If they won’t defend what they have done, they apparently will not undo what they have wrought either.
No Democratic gubernatorial candidate wants one foot built of a new border wall. No House candidate demands that the Keystone pipeline be finished. No senatorial candidate calls for fiscal discipline to lower inflation.
Instead, they stay mute.
Biden mutters lies about MAGA extremists under every bed while daily offering yet another made-up tidbit of his fantasy autobiography.
State and national candidates either avoid debates with their Republican opponents or delay them in hopes they will become irrelevant since millions of mail-in ballots are already cast.
Rarely have voters turned over their country to radicals, socialists, and nihilists.
We did in 2020.
And once the Left took the presidency, the House, and Senate, they tried a deadly experiment on us the American people, their veritable lab rats.
It failed—and has now nearly destroyed us along with the country.
Yet in November the Left apparently demands more time for more experimentation on more of us. But to do what exactly?
Pass more no bail laws and promote more defunding of the police? Make the jails and prisons emptier?
More destruction of what’s left of the southern border?
More biological men overpowering women in sports?
More printing of money?
More cutting back on federal gas and oil leases and canceling pipelines?
Apparently, the only thing that will stop their mad experimentation is that they have run out of us—their once willing lab rats.
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With overwhelming victory, Netanyahu to form strong, stable, legitimate, right-wing gov’t
The vote was a national referendum on the tremendous damage caused cycle after election cycle by opposing parliamentarians who conspired to block the people’s choice from serving as prime minister. Op-ed.
BY Alex Traiman
(JNS) Apparently in Israel, the fifth time is the charm. After repeated attempts by the opposition, by defectors from his own right-wing bloc, by the prosecution and the Supreme Court to prevent embattled former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from ruling, the electorate finally ended Israel’s protracted political deadlock by voting overwhelmingly in favor of Netanyahu and his natural—and loyal—right-wing allies.
With 87.6 percent of the paper ballots counted, Netanyahu’s bloc is likely to surge to as many as 65 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The number represents a stable parliamentary majority. By contrast, Israel’s left-wing collapsed to barely 45 seats—a massive 20-seat gap between the right-wing and left-wing blocs. Parties comprising the outgoing coalition secured only 50 Knesset seats this time around, and that is including an Arab party affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood.
Even if the distribution of mandates shifts slightly as the final votes are counted, the results are clear: Netanyahu is returning to power for a third stretch as head of government, after a year in the opposition.
The vote was a national referendum on the fitness of Netanyahu—Israel’s longest-serving prime minister—as the man best suited for the top job. It was also a referendum on the tremendous damage caused cycle after election cycle by opposing parliamentarians who conspired to block the people’s choice from serving as prime minister.
In a major surprise, turnout was the highest in years. Many had said that Israelis were growing tired of going to the polls each year and might boycott the voting booths. On the contrary, Israelis embraced their hyper-democracy and voted overwhelmingly to return stability to the electoral system. And the voters proved once again that Israel is a traditional, center-right country.
Despite all the efforts to oust him, it is now clear that Netanyahu has not lost any support across five consecutive elections. And now, the right-wing government he is poised to assemble represents the most stable alignment he has ever secured. There is virtually zero chance that Netanyahu will attempt to move towards a so-called unity alignment with parties that have tried to prevent him from serving as premier. Doing so would bring a Trojan horse and the opposition directly into his cabinet. Stability depends on forming an alliance with parties that actually support Netanyahu’s candidacy.
The Religious Zionist Party, and Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, are each expected to recommend Netanyahu as prime minister when President Isaac Herzog begins consultations with party leaders, possibly as early as Sunday. Netanyahu should have little trouble negotiating coalition agreements and distributing cabinet portfolios. With only four parties in the coalition, there will be more than enough ministries to apportion among the ideologically-aligned allies.
After securing more than twice as many Knesset mandates as any other party in the alignment, Netanyahu’s Likud will likely hold the most senior cabinet offices, including the coveted Defense and Foreign ministry posts.
Having 100 percent of the cabinet ministries headed by members of Israel’s right-wing will produce an unprecedented era in the state’s history. The outgoing alignment, led by alternate prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, brought the left wing from the backbenches of the opposition into the key government ministries, where many introduced progressive agendas that challenge the fabric of Israel as a traditional Jewish state and an emerging regional superpower.
In addition, the Bennett-Lapid alliance brought a self-declared anti-Zionist Arab party into government for the first time. Without the Ra’am Party, the anti-Netanyahu bloc could not have assembled its bare 1-seat majority in June 2021. The ideologically disparate alliance lasted barely a year to the day, with Ra’am wavering in its support of the government during major Israeli security operations in Gaza, as well as in Judea and Samaria.
Ra’am’s unprecedented participation in government was a major source of contention for Israel’s traditional voter base and contributed to the present right-wing resurgence.
The surprise electoral surges in support during this fifth round both occurred on the right wing.
In the first, the Religious Zionist Party, once a fringe group in Israeli politics, soared to become the third-largest party in the Knesset with 14 mandates. The party, a technical bloc of smaller right-wing factions, is led by longtime parliamentarian Bezalel Smotrich. Second on the candidates list is up-and-coming political firebrand Itamar Ben-Gvir, a former supporter of the banned Kach political party.
While arousing controversy among many detractors, Ben-Gvir has garnered tremendous support from young voters who feel disenfranchised by longtime political leaders. He is calling for enhanced security, greater protections for soldiers and police officers operating against enemies in the field, and tougher conditions for terrorists sitting in Israeli prisons. The growing support for his views is itself a referendum on security policies carried out by a left-wing political and defense establishment, which led to a dramatic increase in terror in the year since Netanyahu left office.
The second surge in support came in the nation’s two Orthodox sectors. Both the Ashkenazi United Torah Judaism party and the Sephardic Shas party secured mandate totals that exceeded the pre-election forecasts. In particular, Shas soared by three mandates up to 11 seats on Election Day. The Orthodox communities typically have low voter turnout. The sudden high turnout gives the Orthodox parties representation matching their growing share of the population.
More important, the rise of the two Orthodox parties plus Religious Zionist demonstrate their constituents’ strong desire to safeguard Israel’s traditional and uniquely Jewish national, religious and social values. Strengthening the values that make Israel unique runs counter to the leftward, globalist trends affecting many of the Jewish state’s Western allies.
The election of a broad right-wing government is a clear rejection of the progressive values Yair Lapid and his left-wing allies attempted to foist upon the electorate—without a clear mandate to do so. In particular, the failure of the far-left Meretz Party to cross the electoral threshold (so far) is a stinging defeat for the progressive camp. The left-wing Labor party barely crossed the threshold to receive the four-mandate minimum, a historic low for Israel’s former ruling party (which has changed its charcter,ed.).
Members of the left-wing are now turning their animus on left-wing leader Lapid for cannibalizing the votes of the smaller parties in his bloc. And while Yesh Atid did improve to 24 seats, up from 17 in the previous election, an eight-seat gap behind Likud is not enough to convince anyone in Israel that Lapid deserves to remain in the prime minister’s chair that he co-opted as a “caretaker” once Naftali Bennett resigned.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid now both hold the consecutive distinctions of being the shortest-lasting prime ministers in the state’s history. Bennett has since resigned from politics altogether. Lapid is now set to become head of the opposition, where he will continue his endless campaign to delegitimize Netanyahu.
Lapid is likely to be sitting in the opposition for a long time. Unlike previous alignments, the incoming Netanyahu-led right-wing government has great potential to last a complete four-year term. After years of instability, a full term is just what Israelis need to secure their national interests.
Any attempts to delegitimize Netanyahu or his right-wing allies would be an affront to the voting public who have definitively ended Israel’s political deadlock. In contrast, it was the left wing that used every tool at its disposal to break precedents and hijack Israel’s democratic processes. In a fair and democratic election, the public has finally rejected the anti-Netanyahu bloc’s efforts and sent a clear message that the left-wing and Arab parties belong on the benches of the opposition.
Once the dust settles, Netanyahu will need to quickly set his policy agendas. Issues that his government will need to address include mounting Palestinian Arab violence, Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, the Abraham Accords agreements, and rapidly rising costs of housing and living.
Another will be to try and heal the rifts caused by Israel’s repeat election cycles. With strong governance, Israel may not enter another such cycle for at least four years.
Alex Traiman is CEO and Jerusalem Bureau Chief of Jewish News Syndicate.
AND:
Iran’s Hard-Liners Are Starting to Crack
Even regime stalwarts are criticizing Khamenei, which hasn’t happened during previous revolts.
By Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh
This time is different. The Iranian people have been protesting in the streets for more than a month since the morality police beat a young woman to death for reportedly failing to wear a headscarf. Now even Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s allies are distancing themselves from the government. It’s too soon to say the elite is fracturing, but it’s clear that these divisions will widen, putting unprecedented stress on the regime.
Take Ali Larijani, who was the longest serving speaker of Parliament and is still one Mr. Khamenei’s advisers. He’s never been known to care about women’s rights. He’s been an ardent defender of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and sycophantic toward Mr. Khamenei. But in a recent interview with the Iranian paper Ettela’at, he decried the rigid imposition of the hijab and insisted, “Dialogue is necessary, and it has to be substantive. We must provide the public venues for protest and a means of conducting a dialogue.”
Jumhuriya Islami, a conservative newspaper whose first managing director was Mr. Khamenei, has also criticized the regime. A stern editorial rejected the government’s official explanation for the protests—that they are a product of foreign interference—and stressed the seriousness of demonstrators’ grievances: “The problems of inflation, unemployment, drought, and destruction of the environment have caused people, ranging from retirees, educators and students, to protest.” The newspaper offered a 14-point plan to defuse tensions. Point 11: “Don’t lie about what is happening.”
Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eja’i has long cultivated an image of a ruthless enforcer. And yet he is now imploring that “we must increase dialogue in the country and ensure that diverse opinions are presented in the public culture.” This is hardly what Mr. Khamenei wants to hear from the judiciary, the linchpin of his regime’s frequent inquisitions.
Former President Hassan Rouhani, who has often kept quiet about repression if not loudly backed it, has strongly dissented from the supreme leader’s methods: “National security isn’t achieved only by recourse to military and law-enforcement means. . . . Security must come through the protection of life and the securing of one’s livelihood, personal freedoms, and the basic rights of the people.”
Autocracies rely on terror, and it’s clear that fewer Iranians fear Tehran today. This is particularly true of young women, but Iranians from all walks of life have joined the protests. The unrest has produced strikes in critical industries, and the security services have been hesitant to use lethal force. That conservatives are now critiquing Mr. Khamenei shows that the regime is losing its core strength. They seem to realize that Tehran can’t kill its way to success. These men either don’t have the stomach to murder thousands of women, or they believe—rightly—that doing so would only lead to mass confrontation with hundreds of thousands of angry, relentless men.
Those inside the regime who are critical of Mr. Khamenei find themselves in a difficult position. The demonstrators aren’t interested in compromise. Dialogue was the objective of protesters in 1997, when Mohammad Khatami, a clerical reformer, became president; even as late as 2009, when the pro-democracy Green Movement brought millions into Tehran’s streets, a compromise with the regime might have been possible. The theocracy’s brutal reactions then, and to later efforts at reform, have ended the possibility of dialogue. Conservatives now face a choice between joining the protest or being left behind.
The scenes in Iran today are reminiscent of 1979. The monarchy’s prospects dimmed when those who benefited most from its largess hedged and then fled. Today an important segment of the Islamist elite is displaying a similar hesitancy to back the regime. Over time it could become a majority.
The Islamic revolutionaries running Iran are made of stern stuff: They believe they’re defending God from political, if not spiritual, defenestration. But the Islamic Republic’s rulers, like the shahs before them, know that their regime ultimately rests on haybat—the awe of unchallengeable power. That neither teenage girls throughout Iran nor foundational figures of the theocracy see this majesty any longer suggests that Mr. Khamenei’s time is running out.
Mr. Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the Central Intelligence Agency, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
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IT HAS COME TO THIS:
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Subject - Donna Trump —- Just for Laughs
When one tries to reason with a leftist Democrat, remember you are dealing with a person who believes that a man can be a woman and a woman can be a man and that such a delusion should be encouraged, not discouraged.
Discouragement of the delusion is considered immoral and bigoted. Thus, our society has unnecessary dilemmas concerning bathrooms, athletic competition at all levels, and pronoun controversies subjecting ourselves to all manner of laws, rules, regulation and more needless government control. Here is a suggestion to break the left's ridiculous gender ideology and denial of biological reality.
President Trump should make a declaration that he is identifying as a woman. The left will have to admit the absurdity of their gender ideology or accept and celebrate Donna Trump as the first woman President, thus beating Hillary, Liz Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand to the glorious goal of one of their female firsts.
Furthermore, if he remains married to Melania he will also be the first gay president and the first lesbian president. He will also be the first lesbian president married to an immigrant! What a most glorious event for the democrats to celebrate.
Man oh man, I love it when a plan comes together.
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