A brilliant speech and a convincing message: https://youtu.be/LjAsM1vAhW0
And:
Trump's New Mid East Envoy: https://unitedwithisrael.org/
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Trump pulls off brilliant trade deal. (See 1 below.)
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Peter is a friend and fellow memo reader and a very astute economist. I agree with his suggestion. (See 2 below.)
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Macron another French patsy. (See 3 and 3a below.)
And:
Matters continue to heat up regarding Israel and Hezbollah. Israel does not want a confrontation but Hezbollah seems itching to cause one so Israel has no choice but to prepare. (See 3b below.)
Finally:
Why many Israelis remain enamored with BIBI: See: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/
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One day black voters will wake up and realize their enslavement to The Democrat Party has continued to work against their better interests. Democrats are Beholden to the Teachers Union who oppose Charter Schools. The two best solutions for Black citizens is through a better education and to rebuild their family unit.
Everything progressive Democrats have proposed has been mostly anathema for our black population because it fosters dependency on the government.
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Dick
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1) BREAKING: Trump ends US China trade war; swaps Hong Kong for California in unprecedented deal
Washington DC—After months of growing trade Tensions between the US and China leading to an impending global recession, along with mounting strife in China’s Hong Kong province prompting dissidents to wave American flags, US President Donald Trump has negotiated quite possibly the biggest deal of his life.
The US will trade the entire state of California for Hong Kong in a flat exchange.
“Basically everyone in California wants to be commies and Hong Kong wants to be American, so we did what we call a win-win-win and traded the two in a tremendous deal,” Trump said in a press conference announcing the unprecedented deal.
Markets responded with a complete turnaround from recent declines and posted record numbers.
Californians and Hong Kongers were dancing in their respective streets—Californians happy about the 1-child-only policy and being run by the Communist Party finally!—and Hong Kong happy about being part of the free world once again.
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2) MarketWatch : Stick with Stocks during the Trade Wars
Nervous Investors Are Rushing into Bonds, but the Savvy Ones Won't Panic
Peter Morici @pmorici1
Trade wars and political and economic turmoil in China and Europe have stoked market volatility. Many have sought refuge in bonds but savvy long-term investors will stay with stocks.
Adding to nervousness, FAANG stocks - Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google (a.k.a. Alphabet) - face tough antitrust scrutiny, new challenges over user privacy and more competition. After leading the market for years, like Microsoft, Intel, and Cisco in the 1990s, they have somewhat receded into the pack.
Consumer spending and the broader service sectors are still growing and the FAANG's challenges more likely herald opportunities for other leaders to come forward.
Disrupting the FAANGs
For example, Walmart has fashioned a formidable web presence to rival Amazon in groceries and doesn't suffer the same product quality problems in other areas. Netflix's woes are driven by Disney and others expanding in the video streaming space - likely expanding overall industry revenue and profits.
Microsoft has resurrected itself from a "legacy tech" to a leader in cloud services, and revolutions in artificial intelligence and robotics are driven by a host of smaller firms that are cutting waste out of the economy.
Searching for the brightest prospects requires information that ordinary investors cannot muster. They should stick to broad diversification - in particular, indexing - and ask how stock valuations stack up against history and prospects for continued growth.
Over the last 25 years, the price-earnings ratio has averaged 25 for the trailing 12-months of profits. Currently, those are at 22 and indicate stocks are hardly overvalued.
Moderate growth
The U.S. and global economies should continue to grow at about 2% and 3% in real terms and 4% to 6% nominally, respectively, with U.S. household income improving moderately. That should translate into gains in corporate sales and profits the first half of next year.
The American economy is adjusting to less emphasis on autos and residential construction-and temporarily Boeing - to greater reliance on digital technologies that are revolutionizing the services sector. For example, consumer accessible artificial intelligence through health apps and UberEats and DoorDash.
Overall, profit growth may hit a nadir in the third quarter, possibly pushing stock prices to clutch down further, but that metric should accelerate to 8% or 9% by the first half of next year.
Stick with equities
Over the horizon, the stuff of strong gains beckons and is a good reason to stick with equities.
For ordinary investors, stocks, bonds and CDs are the only reasonable places for retirement money. IRS depreciation rules make investing in rental property difficult, and small investors can expect increasing competition from large firms - with significant backing from Wall Street - expanding into the businesses of flipping and renting homes.
Over the last 50 years, the S&P 500 has outperformed 10-year Treasuries by more than 50%, and no compelling argument has been offered that the coming decades will be any different. With the Federal Reserve and other central banks in an interest-rate-cutting mode, stocks will continue to enjoy the edge over fixed-income assets-even with only moderate profit growth.
The world is awash with too much savings - businesses have more cash than new opportunities and international investors looking for safe havens for their wealth. A good chunk of that money will find its way into Treasuries - suppressing yields - and U.S. stocks - driving up P/E ratios.
Picking the next Apple or Amazon or timing when profits and stock prices will dip and then rise is a virtually impossible task - winning at that game has even eluded Warren Buffett over the last decade.
What to do
Small investors should invest for the long term by purchasing a broad-based index fund like the Vanguard, Fidelity or USAA S&P 500 portfolios. And perhaps an international index fund to smooth results - sometimes U.S. equities do better while other times foreign stocks lead.
Once within 10 years of retiring, gradually move about half of that money into fixed-income vehicles with maturities of less than five years. Avoid bond funds - it's less risky to purchase fixed income through Treasury Direct or in CDs.
If you consistently add a reasonable amount to those investments throughout your working years, you should be in good shape to give your child a great wedding, pay tuition, and enjoy a secure retirement.
Peter Morici is an economist and business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist. He invests primarily in index funds.
Peter Morici
Professor
Robert H. Smith School of Business
University of Maryland
New Cell: 703 350 9701
Twitter: @pmorici1
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3) Macron’s Bad Bargain With Iran
Tehran shows what it thinks of France’s latest bribe to stay in the nuclear deal
First the European signatories tried to evade U.S. sanctions by creating a new trade and finance system. That failed, so now French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed giving Tehran a roughly $15 billion credit line, guaranteed by Iranian oil, if the regime renews compliance with the nuclear deal.
Mr. Macron would do better to save the money and help Mr. Trump ’s Iran efforts. Sanctions the U.S. has imposed since last year are designed to coax Tehran to renegotiate a better deal. This has included designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a foreign terrorist organization and sanctions that have reduced Iranian crude oil exports some 80%. U.S. Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook announced fresh measures against the IRGC and Iranian oil last Wednesday.
This appears to be working. Iranian leaders such as Foreign Minister Javad Zarif have gone from refusing talks with Washington to probing ways to get back to the negotiating table. That’s important context for Iran’s provocations that are supposed to scare Washington into offering a new deal, such as attacks on oil infrastructure in the Middle East, threats against a Washington think tank, and news that Tehran is now openly violating the 2015 deal by stockpiling highly enriched uranium.
The mystery is why, in light of all this, Mr. Macron is eager to send Iran more money—especially since Mr. Trump can block the transfer by refusing to waive U.S. sanctions. Perhaps Mr. Macron and the Europeans hope to buy off Iran in the short term as they wait to see if Mr. Trump wins re-election. But in the meantime they are advancing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
3a)
IAEA finds traces of uranium at site Netanyahu warned was atomic warehouse
By REUTERS
Samples taken by the U.N. nuclear watchdog at what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called a "secret atomic warehouse" in Tehran showed traces of uranium that Iran has yet to explain, two diplomats who follow the agency's inspections work closely say.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is investigating the particles' origin and has asked Iran to explain the traces. But Tehran has not done so, according to the diplomats, stoking tensions between Washington and Tehran. US sanctions have slashed Iranian oil sales and Iran has responded by breaching its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. In a speech a year ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who vehemently opposed the deal, called on the IAEA to visit the site immediately, saying it had housed 15 kg (33 lb) of unspecified radioactive material that had since been removed. Reuters first reported in April that the IAEA, which is policing the nuclear deal, had inspected the site - a step it had said it takes "only when necessary" - and environmental samples taken there were sent off for analysis. Israeli and US media have since reported that the samples turned up traces of radioactive material or matter - the same vague language used by Netanyahu. Those traces were, however, of uranium, the diplomats said - the same element Iran is enriching and one of only two fissile elements with which one can make the core of a nuclear bomb. One diplomat said the uranium was not highly enriched, meaning it was not purified to a level anywhere close to that needed for weapons. "There are lots of possible explanations," the diplomat said. But since Iran has not yet given any to the IAEA it is hard to verify the particles' origin, and it is also not clear whether the traces are remnants of material or activities that predate the landmark 2015 deal or more recent, diplomats say. The IAEA did not respond to a request for comment. Iranian officials were not available to comment. The deal imposed tight restrictions on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, and was based on drawing a line under Iran's past activities. Both the IAEA and U.S. intelligence services believe Iran had a nuclear weapons program that it ended more than a decade before the deal. Iran says its nuclear ambitions have always been peaceful. Netanyahu, who has repeatedly accused Iran of seeking Israel's destruction, points to Tehran's past to argue that it can never be trusted. The Islamic Republic's previous secrecy might explain why uranium traces were found at a location that was never declared to the IAEA. COULD DO BETTER The IAEA takes environmental samples because they can pick up telltale particles even long after material has been removed from a site. Uranium traces could indicate, for example, the former presence of equipment or material somehow connected to those particles. Cornel Feruta, the agency's acting director-general, met Iranian officials on Sunday. An IAEA statement said afterwards: "Feruta stressed that these interactions (on its nuclear commitments) require full and timely cooperation by Iran." The United States, which was pulled out of the nuclear deal last year by President Donald Trump, is trying to force Iran to negotiate a more sweeping agreement, covering Tehran's ballistic missiles and regional behavior, than the current accord. Iran says it will not negotiate until it is granted relief from US sanctions, which France is trying to broker. In the meantime, Iran is breaching the deal's restrictions on its nuclear activities step-by-step in response to what it calls U.S. "economic warfare". A quarterly IAEA report issued a week ago did not mention the sample results because inspection-related matters are highly confidential. But it did say Iran's cooperation could be better. "Ongoing interactions between the Agency and Iran...require full and timely cooperation by Iran. The Agency continues to pursue this objective with Iran," the report said. US RAISING PRESSURE It is far from the first time Iran has dragged its feet in its interactions with the IAEA over the agency's non-proliferation mandate. The IAEA has made similar calls in previous reports, in relation to promptly granting access for inspections. The IAEA has likened its work to nuclear accounting, patiently combing through countries' statements on their nuclear activities and materials, checking them and when necessary seeking further explanations before reaching a conclusion, which can take a long time. The process of seeking an explanation from Iran has lasted two months, the IAEA's safeguards division chief told member states in a briefing on Thursday, diplomats present said. But he described what it was seeking an answer to far more generally as questions about Iran's declaration of nuclear material and activities, since the details are confidential. "It is not something that is so unique to Iran. The agency has these cases in many other situations," a senior diplomat said when asked about the current standoff with Iran. "Depending on the engagement it can take two months, six months." That does not mean all member states will be happy to wait. "IAEA Acting Director General going to Iran just as IAEA informs its Board that #Iran may be concealing nuclear material and/or activities," US National Security Adviser John Bolton said on Twitter on Saturday. "We join with other @iaeaorg Board member states eager to get a full report as soon as possible." The IAEA's policy-making, 35-nation Board of Governors holds a week-long quarterly meeting starting on Monday.
3b) IDF kicks off large exercise simulating war against Hezbollah
Drill focuses on roles of senior officers and their staffs during conflict in north, rather than tactics and fighting; comes week after cross-border exchangeBy Judah Ari Gross
The Israel Defense Forces on Sunday launched a large-scale exercise simulating war against Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian forces in the north of the country.
The drill, known in Hebrew as Even HaRosha, or Keystone, will largely be focused on the performance of senior officers and their staffs, rather than on fighting tactics and maneuvers, the army said.
“The goal of the exercise is improving the performance of the [IDF] General Staff and the various headquarters in war,” the IDF said in a statement.
Command units of the army’s air force, navy, ground forces, intelligence, logistics, communications and cyber units will participate in the exercise.
Some aspects of the drill were initially scheduled for last week, but were postponed in light of heightened tensions with the Hezbollah terror group.
The military said the exercise was scheduled to end Wednesday.
“Various scenarios will be simulated, with an emphasis on cooperation, multi-system planning and operations during wartime,” the army said.
Tensions with Hezbollah and its patron Iran have soared in recent weeks, after the IDF late last month thwarted an attempt by Iranian operatives in Syria — including two former Hezbollah members — to carry out an attack on northern Israel with armed drones and attacked their base. It also followed a drone attack in Beirut, attributed to Israel, that reportedly destroyed key components of a joint Hezbollah-Iran project to manufacture precision-guided missiles in Lebanon.
In response, last Sunday, Hezbollah operatives fired three anti-tank guided missiles at Israeli positions near the Israel-Lebanon border — two of them at a military vehicle and one at a battalion headquarters. No Israeli soldiers were injured, and the IDF retaliated by firing approximately 100 artillery shells and bombs at Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. No Lebanese casualties were reported.
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