Friday, January 11, 2019

Everything A Crisis But Not Illegal Immigration.Is America's Root Structure Still Healthy? SIRC's PDD! Another Rant!



What I find perverse is Democrats always believe in crisis-es.  War on Poverty , Climate Change, tax cuts for the rich, gun ownership, Trump's Election would lead to nuclear war etc. Yet when it comes to an invasion by illegal immigrants and pictures of a caravan heading our way, drugs flooding our nation, police and American citizens killed by illegal immigrants etc. the sole event reaching the level of a crisis becomes government paychecks not being mailed.

When people were actually losing jobs and Obama was president that was not a crisis.  It was simply GW's fault.
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There are those who look at a bush, a tree, a shrub, a manicured lawn and see beautiful green etc. but never think to consider the status of the root structure. Even light bulbs are known to brighten before they die.

The American economy is doing quite well in absolute and relative terms but the root structure of our republic is not healthy.

The political picture is one of deep division, spending is out of control, our education system has been poisoned by political correctness, the family structure has been destroyed, the middle class is shrinking as is our native born population, and the attributes of what went to make up the American culture have been shredded.  Our adversaries have their own issues but, overall, are gaining at our expense etc. Need I say more?

The current battle, with respect to the partial government shut-down over border spending, is a perfect example of America's political dysfunction and the desire on the part of Democrats to rub Trump's nose, and thus the nation's, into the mud because Democrats cannot accept  that he won the 2016 election.

I agree with Eric Erickson that the "die is cast" and Trump must hang tough along with his fellow members and win this fight. Not because walls or barriers work, because they do, and yesterday CNN's Acosta was made to look like the  hypocrite and fool he is,but because the basis of the dispute is predicated on the wrong premise. (See 1 and 1a below.)

Trump is seeking to protect and defend our nation, as is his constitutional responsibility, and because Democrats find him repugnant, have a vested interest in defeating him in 2020 and have spent a great deal of money and political capital prior to and post his 2016 victory,  they feel compelled to pursue their treasonous behaviour.

Once again Democrats have placed their desire for power over the welfare of our nation. (See 1b below.)

Many books have been written about this and the Mueller Investigation was birthed as a response to false charges regarding Russian Collusion. I commend: "Trump's Enemies" to you and if you attend  The SIRC's PDD you will be given a complimentary and inscribed edition. It is a worthy read and you can draw your own conclusions.

I believe it documents and confirms my own suspicions that Obama and his senior intelligence gum shoes facilitated and Hillary orchestrated one of the greatest political frauds since The Teapot Dome.  They are up to their eye balls in one of the most cynical political scandals ever. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
                                 SKIDAWAY ISLAND REPUBLICAN CLUB 
          


                                                RSVP: Tom Huffer  598 9986
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Another Rant. (See 2 below.)
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Has the Syrian troop withdrawal begun? (See 3 below)
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This, pertaining to Democrats, from a dear and talented friend and also a fellow memo reader : "

"Dick,  

As a retired surgeon friend of mine recently wrote: 

The Party has never moved this far Left. They are chomping at the bit for a revolution. They are ready to end ICE and open the borders, ready for single payer, and ready to outlaw the internal combustion engine. This is not just about Trump. It goes beyond Trump. It is about erasing every accomplishment of the past two years, turning out every judge, every policeman who looked sideways at a criminal, every bit of plastic in our supermarkets, every host on Talk Radio. In the last convention they didn’t just boo Israel, they booed God. 

They’re going to ruin the goddamn place. R--"
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Dick
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1) If You Do This Mr. President, You’ll Get Nothing
I understand the President’s frustrations with the Congressional Democrats, but the way to win this fight is to go into the districts of freshmen Democrats and point out that they are refusing to compromise at all. The President is willing to negotiate on the amount of money for border security. He’s willing to negotiate on DACA. But all the Democrats are doing is saying no, no, no. The President must make the case in local TV markets around the country. He must note that the prolonged government shutdown is because of Democrats’ refusal to compromise.
If the President declares an emergency and attempts to reprogram money through that declaration or have the military construct the wall, a federal judge is going to stop him. The President will not get the wall and opponents will tie the emergency declaration up so tightly in court the President could go six... 

Jim Acosta is touring south Texas where the President went to campaign for more border barriers. Acosta, who normally has a contentious relationship with the White House, did yeoman's work helping the President advance his argument.
Acosta went to the border wall and noted that there, at that wall, there is no emergency...


1b) Marc Thiessen: This is the stupidest government shutdown in US history. When will Dems get smart about it?

Barring some miraculous breakthrough, on Saturday the current government shutdown will become the longest in American history. But it has already hit another historic milestone: It is, by far and away, the stupidest government shutdown in American history.
In 2019, the federal government will spend a whopping $4.407 trillion. Yet Congress and the president are shutting down the government in a dispute between the $1.3 billion the Democrats have approved for border security and the $5.7 billion the president is demanding -- precisely 0.0998 percent of the total federal budget. In Washington, that is considered a rounding error.
Worse, Democrats are doing it over a border wall strikingly similar to one that they almost unanimously supported just five years ago. While House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., now says that "a wall is an immorality," back in 2013, she supported a bill that required the construction of 700 miles of border fencing. (Trump has called for a wall of "anywhere from 700 to 900 miles" long.) The bill negotiated by the Gang of Eight, which included current Democratic leaders Sens. Charles Schumer, N.Y., and Dick Durbin, Ill., declared that "not later than 180 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Secretary [of Homeland Security] shall establish ... the 'Southern Border Fencing Strategy,' to identify where 700 miles of fencing (including double-layer fencing) ... should be deployed along the Southern border."
That's not all. The bill further said that "the Secretary may not adjust the status of aliens who have been granted registered provisional immigrant status ... until 6 months after ... [the Secretary submits] a written certification that ... there is in place along the Southern Border no fewer than 700 miles of pedestrian fencing." In other words, Democrats agreed that no illegal immigrants could get a path to citizenship until all 700 miles of border fencing had been fully completed.
Every Senate Democrat voted for the Gang of Eight bill -- including 36 Democratic senators still serving today. President Barack Obama agreed to sign it. Indeed, he praised the bill for including what he called "the most aggressive border security plan in our history" and said that "the Senate bill is consistent with the key principles for commonsense reform that I -- and many others -- have repeatedly laid out" (emphasis added). That bears repeating: Obama said building a 700-mile fence on the southern border was consistent with the principles of the Democratic Party.
Pelosi supported the Gang of Eight bill, saying at the time that "every piece of this legislation has had bipartisan support" (emphasis added). But now we are shutting down the government over a wall much like the one that Pelosi and Senate Democrats fully supported just five years ago?
Democrats will object that the Gang of Eight bill did fund a border wall, but it was in exchange for a lot of concessions. Of course it was. As Obama said at the time, "the bipartisan bill that passed today was a compromise." But today, Democrats are refusing to compromise or lay out what concessions they would accept in exchange for wall funding. When Trump rhetorically backed off the wall and talked about "steel slats" -- a fence -- Democrats ignored it. When Vice President Mike Pence reportedly offered a deal for $2.5 billion, Democrats dismissed it. In a White House meeting Wednesday, Trump asked Pelosi whether, if he agreed to end the shutdown and negotiate separately on border security, she would support wall funding. She said no.
That is ridiculous.
In their response to the president's address to the nation, Schumer and Pelosi accused Trump of "manufacturing a crisis." That is simply untrue. As The Post reported this week, the United States now faces "a bona fide emergency on the border" as "record numbers of migrant families are streaming into the United States, overwhelming border agents and leaving holding cells dangerously overcrowded with children, many of whom are falling sick."
Democrats could not possibly be in a better position to demand concessions form Trump if they had manufactured a crisis. So put some demands on the table, for crying out loud. If Democrats think they have Trump cornered, then squeeze him and try get a lot out of him. But don't refuse to negotiate and tell us the wall is an "immorality" -- because their voting history shows they don't believe that.
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2)  First the real world. The China talks are progressing apparently fairly well given they went an extra unscheduled day and Chinese spokesmen have been positive in their reporting. Now a senior Chinese official is coming to DC for follow up talks. The real issue remains cybertheft of IP, and allowing foreign companies to own a majority, and to not have to share IP. These issues are key to Xi’s strategy to make China preeminent by 2025. To achieve is goals they have to steal every bit of IP they can or we will just stay ahead. So in the end, Xi needs to modify his strategy, and that is why the talks are hung up on IP and the methodology and measures of compliance by China. China will cheat at any opportunity, so verify and punish is key. That will be the real hang up for China. However, as I keep mentioning, the Chinese economy is getting weaker by a lot, and Xi has a lot of pressure to fix it. He cannot let there be 25% tariffs in March. Factories are already moving out of China and this would materially accelerate very fast if higher tariffs are imposed. The economy had been weakening in any event, and various stimulus efforts have not been effective, at the same time as they had been trying to delever the massive amounts of loans that banks have outstanding.  A huge game of chicken is happening. My bet is they do a deal.
The Fed is clearly now as uncertain as all of us as to where things go from here. They got the message after the market drop in December that the economy could be hurt if the stock market stays down. The good news is mortgage rates dropped, from 4.8 to 4.5 or less, and refis have shot back up last week, and should continue to do so.  Christmas retail results should be released shortly and will be very good for most retailers, even if bad for Macy and Kohls. Target was up 5.9%. Based on an interview Dimon just gave, consumers are in fact in good credit shape, and he would know better than anyone, and a lot better than the pundits who worry about consumer debt. Even though oil prices are back up a little, gas prices are still below $2.00 in many areas, which just keeps putting money in consumers pockets. Tax refunds will go out soon despite the shutdown, adding more to consumers bank accounts. Dimon was optimistic about the economy and spending, and felt that the talk of inverted yield curves etc is not an issue. Wall St is sending many mixed messages with some saying stocks will rise 15% this year, and others saying they are cautious. Recall that just two weeks ago many were saying there will be a 2019 recession, and now few say that. My point once again, listen, but in the end make your own analysis of where the economy is headed since it is obvious all the negative talk in December was wrong. Yes, there will be slower growth in GDP and earnings, but we all knew that. It is now more than priced into the market. PE ratios are once again attractive at around 14-15 x forward earnings. If you took  a deep breathe, and just sat still in December, you are being rewarded. If you sold in worry, you are a loser unless you bought back in right after Jan 1. 
It is very hard to judge the yield curve now as there has never been the liquidity squeeze we see developing due to the reverse QE by the Fed reducing their balance sheet by $50 billion a month. They were buying more per month during QE, and now they are sellers, which is draining cash and liquidity from the markets, and materially reducing the demand to buy bonds. This is having an impact on credit markets and bond prices, but nobody is as yet sure how much impact nor, what the effect on investment and the economy since this has never happened before. It is likely having an impact on the yield curve, so the fear of inversion might be caused by artificial reasons, and not an economic slowdown.  The Fed also seems now to not be sure.

Germany continues to slow, and France continues to have riots. Poland is now complaining that they are not treated equally to France on deficits, and they are right. Nothing is getting better in the EU, and Brexit is about to blow up in Parliament this week or next. In the meantime, the US and the EU are making progress on finalizing a trade deal behind the scenes. The EU cannot now afford to have a trade fight with the US. It would kill them. 

The border battle is insane. Pelosi has now admitted that even if Trump agreed to extend the government for 30 days, there is no chance she will agree to any money at all for the barrier. Trump was right to walk out. He is right to hold out. The Dem position now is yes, we did vote to pay for 700 miles of wall, but we don’t need another mile. How stupid is that. As this goes on the Dems will carry more of the blame as they refuse to negotiate anything, and as their hypocrisy is now clear. All they say is, the wall is not effective and immoral, but then they have no specifics on what is needed, nor how to end the caravans and drugs, and human trafficking. Trump is right. If the other party says there is never any chance I will give you any of what you want, then why stay in the room. He has tried several times to do a deal, and Chuck and Nancy just say no. It is now disgusting this is what the next two years will be. In the Senate there are hundreds of unfilled jobs needing Senate confirmation for which candidates have waited for over a year, but the Dems use all sorts of tactics to keep Trump from having a full management team. This only hurts the country. It is unprecedented. Eventually even the white suburban college educated women will realize this is ridiculous, and this is what they voted for. The Dems all voted for a 700 mile wall or barrier several times, until now, it is suddenly ineffective, a waste of money and immoral. Van Holen even said, yes we all voted for the fence for 700 miles before, but that is now all the barrier we need. So, it is good for 700 miles, but immoral and ineffective for any further wall or fence????  The left learned nothing from the disaster of open borders in the EU which let in uneducated and culturally different refugees flooding in from Syria and N Africa. Germany is now paying a high price. I have no idea how this ends, but it seems the Republicans are more solid behind Trump than ever since the Dems are being so intransigent. 
And we are just getting started with the circus the Dems have launched with waste of time hearings and press events, instead of doing anything useful. Next up is the Cohen hearing with a guy who is going to jail for lying to Congress and lying to the FBI, and for fraud, but the Dems will put him in front of TV and claim he is now truthful. A complete farce, and the press will love it and repeat whatever he says as truth. The Dems do not know how to deal with a president who is willing to take the intense heat, and hold his position. They misjudged this situation and have boxed themselves in now.

I am reading a very good book that tries to explain why things have become so bad on campus. They explain that the generation now in college are the helicopter and social media generation. The kids never got to do a lot of free play and never get hurt, either physically or emotionally, so they never learned coping or socialization skills. They were protected from any chance of getting hurt, they were dragged to lessons, and soccer and whatever by mommy or the housekeeper.  There was little free play in the school yard where kids where prior kids were not picked to be on the team that day, or where they were called names. Now they get trophies for just showing up to a game. They had grade inflation and less discipline in class. They spent their time on social media or video games, instead of out on their own getting hurt playing sports, and having a fight or two, and learning the skills of real life. So they grew up in “safe zones” and only knew to run to  mommy or the teacher if someone made them feel bad. So when they get to college they expect to have their way, and still be protected by whoever is in charge, and they are “offended or harmed” by speech that challenges their childish beliefs, or by speakers who challenge their thinking. Colleges now have “bias response” hotlines and teams to respond to any perception of offense by anyone. Any student can report a professor or fellow student for “offensive” speech, and that professor then gets investigated and admonished, and maybe fired. Guess what then happens.  Professors don’t teach anything that could in the least bit out of the mainstream of student mantra, so the kids no longer learn challenging ideas, nor even many classic ideas. CYA is now the rule for professors. The kids no longer learn to think critically.  Orwell come to life. Gestapo tactics. The whole point of university is to teach kids to think and question things, and to stand on their own. That no longer happens. Apparently, there is a lot of research that says the brain is formative during childhood and needs to experience socialization, disappointment, getting hurt, and coping, so that as adults you are ready to face the real world and cope with adversity and upset. These kids are untrained, and hide in their social media world protected by adults from any offense, and unable to cope, so they lash out at anything, or at anyone, who challenges their cozy protected world. The deans and the bureaucracy promote this because universities are now large competitive businesses, and they are selling beautiful campuses, a protected “safe” life for the student, and the luxury of continuing to have safe spaces. It is exactly the opposite of what they should be doing, but the schools have built up vast, very expensive staffs headed by all sorts of deans of diversity, sexism, inclusion, anti-bias,  or whatever, and all those people need to justify their existence, so they coddle and ruin the kids for life by investigating any claim of offense or perceived bias. This explanation all makes a lot of sense to me. We are producing a generation of people unable to cope with life, and the left wants to  perpetuate this with free everything, return to excessive regulation, limits on free speech, and calling everyone a racist, Nazi, or worse. The government takes over for mommy and the dean. That rhetoric just feeds the college kids dependence on government protection against anything perceived to be outside their comfort zone. It feeds the left wing mantra of free things and guaranteed income, high taxes for the “rich”, and bad corporations. That is why you are seeing such really bad things on campus and now in Congress. Even anti-Semitism is back on campuses, promoted by Palestinians like the new congresswoman who used an obscenity about Trump, and made an anti-Semitic comment. We are in for several years of bad stuff with these kids coming out of these campus safe zones into the workplace and politics.

Reality check. Apple is selling fewer phones because everyone on the planet with access to wireless has a phone already, and other companies are now competing strongly. Why pay $700 or $1000 for a new phone when the old one is only two years old and works fine. Do you really need a slightly better camera, or a curved edge. The market is saturated. Phones are like cars- you can keep them for several more years with no problem. Apple’s issues have nothing to do with the US economy slowing. It is market saturation and over- priced product.

Pompeo made it completely clear in Egypt that the era of Obama weakness is over. The US will protect its allies, and work to take down Iran. If you missed it, he completely dismantled Obama’s foreign policies. There will be a major confrontation with Turkey over the Kurds and that could get very messy. Erdogan cannot be trusted, and is a pure Islamist.  The region is going to blow up this year in some place, in some way. Now everyone allied with us is begging us to stay in force, even the Iraqis. Iran will have increasing pressure and it is possible something violent will happen.
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3)

Troop withdrawal from Syria has started. The real reasons why Netanyahu isn't worried

By Zev Chafets

 Donald Trump's sudden Dec. 19 announcement that the U.S. would withdraw its 2,000 troops from Syria cost him his defense secretary and set off alarm bells among Israel's staunchest U.S. supporters, notably Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. The one person we didn't hear objecting was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
That's less of a mystery than it might appear. Having carefully built a close relationship with Trump - one that has already resulted in the historic U.S. embassy move to Jerusalem and other signs of friendship - Netanyahu knows better than to publicly upbraid his ally. But behind the scenes, he's worked to ensure that any American withdrawal not only doesn't hurt Israel, but might deliver some benefits.
In Brazil last week, Netanyahu discussed Israel-American cooperation with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and received assurances that the American commitment to countering Iranian aggression and to the "protection of Israel" is unchanged. This week, National Security Adviser John Bolton came to Jerusalem to explicitly declare American support for Israel's war against Iran in Syria and Lebanon.

Bolton seems to have succeeded in getting some conditionality attached to the withdrawal plan, though expressed with excruciating care so as not to be seen to contradict his boss: "Timetables or the timing of withdrawal occurs as a result of the fulfillment of the conditions and the establishment of the circumstances we want to see. It is not the establishment of an arbitrary point for the withdrawal to take place as President Obama did in the Afghan situation ... The timetable flows from the policy decisions that we need to implement." Translated into English, this suggests that an unconditional, immediate withdrawal would send the wrong signals to Arab and Kurdish allies, and to Iranian adversaries, not to mention the Lindsey Graham wing of the Republican Party.



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