When Obama threw this person out the audience cheered. Obama also told the person who was baiting him it was his house. I thought The White House was the people's house.
Obama Kicks out reporter for asking questions Other Reporters cheer
At some point the attacks on Trump, the media bias towards him is going to boomerang.
Meanwhile, Democrats love tagging their opponents as racists and smearing them . When they say they go high they mean they are drunk with power. (See 1 below.)
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Trump is interviewed and unabashed common sense drives his thinking. Unlike those who came before, he does not use Diplomatic speak nor does Pompeo. (See 2 and 2a below.)
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Peace through strength and an explanation why The IDF entered Gaza.
Previously the press reported the Gaza penetration as a botched effort. The purpose was rational the results were less than 100% but dangerous missions encompass high risks. (See 3 and 3a below.)
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I made the same point several memos ago. The Fed often lands breaking something. The economy remains strong but psychology is weakening. (See 4 below.)
And
It is time for Trump to pull Putin's plug. He has had a free hand playing in the sand box and now needs to pay a stiff price.(See 4a below.)
Finally:
Following political hemophiliacs generally is bad policy and ends in poor results. (See 4b below.)
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This from a dear friend, fellow memo reader and a rational scientist: "Dick- I am a scientist, though not a climatologist. But I do read the literature carefully. I agree that carbon dioxide levels are increasing, probably due to human activity, and that CO2 levels will indeed perturb the climate. But I also believe that geophysics trumps man. For example, look for a mini ice age in the coming decades due to sunspot activity- so called Maunder Minimum. Also, we are way overdue for a magnetic pole reversal which coincides with major ice ages, some of which brought glaciers to coastal Georgia and lowered sea levels 200-300 feet! C---"
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1)Attacked repeated as a racist and responding weakly, Hyde-Smith still won. Good.
Cindy Hyde-Smith won in Mississippi, beating former Clinton Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy who had been indicted and forced out of his job in the Clinton Administration. She won despite an aggressive and vigorous character assassination campaign and unforced errors on her own part.
Hyde-Smith was not a good candidate and she exacerbated the attacks on her with unforced errors and pitiful responses. But the attacks themselves were largely unfair distortions amplified by a media increasingly in the pocket of the Democratic Party.
There are still warning signs for the GOP. Espy won a number of counties that Trump had solidly won. And it is abundantly clear that Democrats are now going to tar and feather any and all Republicans as racist, no matter the facts, and will then tar and feather anyone who supports those Republicans as racist. They are going to go after donors, supporters, and candidates.
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2) Trump: U.S. troops will remain in the Middle East for Israel
2) Trump: U.S. troops will remain in the Middle East for Israel
By SARA RUBENSTEIN
"We have reached a point where we don't have to stay in the Middle East. One reason to stay is Israel," US president Donald Trump said on Tuesday evening in an exclusive interview with The Washington Post.
Trump made this comment when he spoke about the possibility of US forces withdrawing from the Middle East. He said that the lower price of oil would be a reason for US troops to withdraw from the Middle East region. "Oil is becoming less and less of a reason because we’re producing more oil now than we’ve ever produced," he said. "So, you know, all of a sudden it gets to a point where you don’t have to stay there. One reason to stay is Israel.”
This isn’t the first time Trump has held Israel as a virtuous example in the Middle East. During a meeting with Putin in Helsinki in July, Trump said, "We’ve worked with Israel long and hard for many years," adding that the US has never been closer to Israel than it is today. “President Putin also is helping Israel, and we both spoke with ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu and they would like to do certain things with respect to Syria, having to do with the safety of Israel.”
Trump said “we,” which apparently indicated that Moscow and Washington are both working with Israel and “Israel working with us.” He continued, “I think their working with Israel is a great thing – and creating safety for Israel is something both President Putin and I would like to see very much.”
The US president also addressed this week's tension between Ukraine and Russia when three Ukrainian ships near Crimea were immobilized and taken over by Russian forces. Trump said he waiting for a "full report" from his national security team about the incident but is considering canceling his scheduled meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, which convenes on Friday and Saturday.
"That will be very determinative," Trump told the Post. "Maybe I won't have the meeting. Maybe I won't even have the meeting ... I don't like that aggression. I don't want that aggression at all," he said. "Absolutely. And by the way, Europe shouldn’t like that aggression. And Germany shouldn’t like that aggression.”
Trump justified his support for Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman in light of the CIA assessment that bin Salman ordered the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a contributor to the The Washington Post before his death. Trump questioned the reliability of the CIA assessment, saying that the CIA did not make a definite statement about Bin Salman's guilt. Additionally, Trump said that the Crown Prince had denied responsibility.
“Maybe he did and maybe he didn’t,” Trump said. “But he denies it. And people around him deny it. And the CIA did not say affirmatively he did it, either, by the way. I’m not saying that they’re saying he didn’t do it, but they didn’t say it affirmatively.”
Trump made this comment when he spoke about the possibility of US forces withdrawing from the Middle East. He said that the lower price of oil would be a reason for US troops to withdraw from the Middle East region. "Oil is becoming less and less of a reason because we’re producing more oil now than we’ve ever produced," he said. "So, you know, all of a sudden it gets to a point where you don’t have to stay there. One reason to stay is Israel.”
This isn’t the first time Trump has held Israel as a virtuous example in the Middle East. During a meeting with Putin in Helsinki in July, Trump said, "We’ve worked with Israel long and hard for many years," adding that the US has never been closer to Israel than it is today. “President Putin also is helping Israel, and we both spoke with ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu and they would like to do certain things with respect to Syria, having to do with the safety of Israel.”
Trump said “we,” which apparently indicated that Moscow and Washington are both working with Israel and “Israel working with us.” He continued, “I think their working with Israel is a great thing – and creating safety for Israel is something both President Putin and I would like to see very much.”
The US president also addressed this week's tension between Ukraine and Russia when three Ukrainian ships near Crimea were immobilized and taken over by Russian forces. Trump said he waiting for a "full report" from his national security team about the incident but is considering canceling his scheduled meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, which convenes on Friday and Saturday.
"That will be very determinative," Trump told the Post. "Maybe I won't have the meeting. Maybe I won't even have the meeting ... I don't like that aggression. I don't want that aggression at all," he said. "Absolutely. And by the way, Europe shouldn’t like that aggression. And Germany shouldn’t like that aggression.”
Trump justified his support for Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman in light of the CIA assessment that bin Salman ordered the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a contributor to the The Washington Post before his death. Trump questioned the reliability of the CIA assessment, saying that the CIA did not make a definite statement about Bin Salman's guilt. Additionally, Trump said that the Crown Prince had denied responsibility.
“Maybe he did and maybe he didn’t,” Trump said. “But he denies it. And people around him deny it. And the CIA did not say affirmatively he did it, either, by the way. I’m not saying that they’re saying he didn’t do it, but they didn’t say it affirmatively.”
2a) The U.S.-Saudi Partnership Is Vital
We don’t condone Jamal Khashoggi’s murder. But the kingdom is a powerful force for Mideast stability.
By Mike Pompeo
The Trump administration’s effort to rebuild the U.S.-Saudi Arabia partnership isn’t popular in the salons of Washington, where politicians of both parties have long used the kingdom’s human-rights record to call for the alliance’s downgrading. The October murder of Saudi national Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey has heightened the Capitol Hill caterwauling and media pile-on. But degrading U.S.-Saudi ties would be a grave mistake for the national security of the U.S. and its allies.
The kingdom is a powerful force for stability in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is working to secure Iraq’s fragile democracy and keep Baghdad tethered to the West’s interests, not Tehran’s. Riyadh is helping manage the flood of refugees fleeing Syria’s civil war by working with host countries, cooperating closely with Egypt, and establishing stronger ties with Israel. Saudi Arabia has also contributed millions of dollars to the U.S.-led effort to fight Islamic State and other terrorist organizations. Saudi oil production and economic stability are keys to regional prosperity and global energy security.
Is it any coincidence that the people using the Khashoggi murder as a cudgel against President Trump’s Saudi Arabia policy are the same people who supported Barack Obama’s rapprochement with Iran—a regime that has killed thousands world-wide, including hundreds of Americans, and brutalizes its own people? Where was this echo chamber, where were these avatars of human rights, when Mr. Obama gave the mullahs pallets of cash to carry out their work as the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism?
Saudi Arabia, like the U.S.—and unlike these critics—recognizes the immense threat the Islamic Republic of Iran poses to the world. Modern-day Iran is, in Henry Kissinger’s term, a cause, not a nation. Its objectives are to spread the Islamic revolution from Tehran to Damascus, to destroy Israel, and to subjugate anyone who refuses to submit, starting with the Iranian people. An emboldened Iran would spread even more death and destruction in the Middle East, spark a regional nuclear-arms race, threaten trade routes, and foment terrorism around the world.
One of Mohammed bin Salman’s first acts as Saudi crown prince was an effort to root out Iran’s destabilizing influence in Yemen, where the Tehran-backed Houthi rebels seized power in 2015. Tehran is establishing a Hezbollah-like entity on the Arabian Peninsula: a militant group with political power that can hold Saudi population centers hostage, as Hezbollah’s missiles in southern Lebanon threaten Israel. The Houthis have occupied Saudi territory, seized a major port, and, with Iranian help, improved their ballistic-missile targeting so that they can shoot at Riyadh’s international airport, through which tens of thousands of Americans travel. Meanwhile, Tehran has shown no genuine interest in a diplomatic solution to the Yemen conflict.
The Trump administration has taken many steps to mitigate Yemen’s suffering from war, disease and famine. We have exerted effort to improve Saudi targeting to minimize civilian casualties, and we have galvanized humanitarian assistance through our own generous example.
The U.S. is pleased to announce it is providing nearly $131 million in additional food assistance for Yemen, bringing total humanitarian aid to more than $697 million over the past 14 months. The funds are being provided to the World Food Program and other organizations working to feed the Yemeni people.
Without U.S. efforts, the death toll in Yemen would be far higher. There would be no honest broker to manage disagreements between Saudi Arabia and its Gulf coalition partners, whose forces are essential to the war effort. Iran has no interest in easing Yemeni suffering; the mullahs don’t even care for ordinary Iranians. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has invested billions to relieve suffering in Yemen. Iran has invested zero.
Yemen is also an important front in the war on terror, and has remained so across presidential administrations of both parties. The group now known as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula launched its first major attack on Americans in October 2000, when its operatives bombed the USS Cole while the destroyer was berthed in Yemen’s Aden harbor. The attack left 17 sailors dead and 39 wounded.
AQAP has since attempted multiple attacks on the U.S. homeland and allied interests, from Nigerian terrorist Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab’s attempted bombing of Northwest Airlines Flight 253, en route from Amsterdam to Detroit on Christmas 2009, to the 2015 massacre at Charlie Hebdo’s offices in Paris. ISIS also maintains a presence in Yemen, from which it seeks to attack the U.S. and our allies.
Abandoning or downgrading the U.S.-Saudi alliance would also do nothing to push Riyadh in a better direction at home. Much work remains to be done to guarantee the freedoms for which America and President Trump always stand. Yet the crown prince has moved the country in a reformist direction, from allowing women to drive and attend sporting events, to curbing the religious police and calling for a return to moderate Islam.
The U.S. doesn’t condone the Khashoggi killing, which is fundamentally inconsistent with American values—something I have told the Saudi leadership privately as well as publicly. President Trump has taken action in response. Twenty-one Saudi suspects in the murder have been deemed ineligible to enter the U.S. and had any visas revoked. On Nov. 15, the administration imposed sanctions on 17 Saudis under Executive Order 13818, which builds on the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act. We’ve worked to strengthen support for this response, and several countries, including France and Germany, have followed suit. The Trump administration will consider further punitive measures if more facts about Khashoggi’s murder come to light.
Critics of the U.S.-Saudi alliance would do well to revisit Jeane Kirkpatrick’s seminal 1979 essay, “Dictatorships and Double Standards,” which analyzed the Carter administration’s failure to distinguish between autocrats friendly to U.S. interests and those who are implacably opposed. Mr. Carter’s ideological predilections had blinded him to U.S. national-security interests and inhibited him, to borrow a phrase, from putting America first.
“Liberal idealism,” Kirkpatrick observed, “need not be identical with masochism, and need not be incompatible with the defense of freedom and the national interest.” What a timely reminder for critics of President Trump’s pragmatic—and correct—approach to the U.S.-Saudi relationship today.
Mr. Pompeo is U.S. secretary of state.
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3) Netanyahu to elite commandos: IDF strength 'best answer' to antisemitism
By ANNA AHRONHEIM
Israeli Prime Minister and Defense Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with elite commando troops Tuesday evening during a major ten day long brigade-level drill and said that Israel’s military strength was the Jew’s “best answer” to antisemitism.
"Once we were a leaf blown in the wind and anyone could massacre us. Today we have strength to respond," he said while meeting with troops participating in the exercise which simulates a two-front war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
"On the eve of Hannukah the spirit of the Maccabees is here — you are the Maccabees. We overcome our enemies with extraordinary spirit that I see here, in the IDF and in all of our fighters."
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eisenkot and Brigade Commander Col.Kobi Heller briefed Netanyahu on the brigade’s capabilities and the threats it is expected to face.
He was also given a demonstration of the unit’s various advanced new weapons systems.
The cross-country 10 day-long exercise will see troops from the Maglan, Egoz and Duvdevan units training on a variety of scenarios, including fighting on two different fronts-in the Gaza Strip against Hamas and in the north of the country against Hezbollah.
The exercise includes broad cooperation with the Israel Air Force, including the launching of strikes in close proximity to troops. During the exercise troops also practiced the transition between fronts and combat zones, as well as fighting in both open and urban areas.
Israel has experience in fighting in two arenas at the same time such as during the Second Lebanon War in 2006 where Hamas starting carrying out terror attacks in Gaza.
But 12 years later, Israel’s enemies have changed and their military capabilities increased tremendously with massive rocket and missile arsenals aimed at the Jewish State’s homefront.
During a visit to the Meitav base at Tel Hashomer during the July 2018 recruitment of the Border Police and the Paratroopers Brigade was held, Netanayhu said that “we are managing tough fronts both in the south and in the north.”
On the southern front Israel has been engaged in three wars with the Gaza’s ruling Hamas terror group over the past ten years. Hamas, which calls for the destruction of the State of Israel, is believed to possess an arsenal of 10,000 rockets and mortar shells.
In 2007 Israel was hit by 2433 projectiles and in 2008 during Operation Cast Lead terror groups fired 3,557 projectiles. In 2012 during Operation Pillar of Defense Israel was struck by 2,771 rockets and in 2014, which coincided with Operation Protective Edge, Israel was bombarded by 4897 projectiles.
Earlier this month southern Israel was struck by close to some 400 rocket and mortar shells alone.
While the army has also been engaged with the Gaza Strip on a weekly basis for the past seven months of violent protests along the security fence, the military believes that Lebanon’s Hezbollah is the most significant strategic threat.
Backed by Iran, the Shia terror group possesses over 100,000 rockets and missiles which can strike most of Israel.
Jerusalem has repeatedly said it would not allow the shipment of advanced weaponry from Iran to Hezbollah via Syria and has admitted to carrying out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria against Hezbollah weapons convoys and Iranian targets.
The fighting in Syria’s civil war has also led to incoming rocket sirens wailing in Israel’s usually pastoral and serene north due to errant projectiles, drones or fighter planes crossing into Israeli airspace and Israeli missile defense systems shooting them down.
Hezbollah has also gained years of battlefield knowledge after fighting for years on the side of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the country’s civil war and is also reported to have sent fighters to Yemen to train Houthi rebels which have been engaged against a Saudi-led coalition.
"Once we were a leaf blown in the wind and anyone could massacre us. Today we have strength to respond," he said while meeting with troops participating in the exercise which simulates a two-front war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
"On the eve of Hannukah the spirit of the Maccabees is here — you are the Maccabees. We overcome our enemies with extraordinary spirit that I see here, in the IDF and in all of our fighters."
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eisenkot and Brigade Commander Col.Kobi Heller briefed Netanyahu on the brigade’s capabilities and the threats it is expected to face.
He was also given a demonstration of the unit’s various advanced new weapons systems.
The cross-country 10 day-long exercise will see troops from the Maglan, Egoz and Duvdevan units training on a variety of scenarios, including fighting on two different fronts-in the Gaza Strip against Hamas and in the north of the country against Hezbollah.
The exercise includes broad cooperation with the Israel Air Force, including the launching of strikes in close proximity to troops. During the exercise troops also practiced the transition between fronts and combat zones, as well as fighting in both open and urban areas.
Israel has experience in fighting in two arenas at the same time such as during the Second Lebanon War in 2006 where Hamas starting carrying out terror attacks in Gaza.
But 12 years later, Israel’s enemies have changed and their military capabilities increased tremendously with massive rocket and missile arsenals aimed at the Jewish State’s homefront.
During a visit to the Meitav base at Tel Hashomer during the July 2018 recruitment of the Border Police and the Paratroopers Brigade was held, Netanayhu said that “we are managing tough fronts both in the south and in the north.”
On the southern front Israel has been engaged in three wars with the Gaza’s ruling Hamas terror group over the past ten years. Hamas, which calls for the destruction of the State of Israel, is believed to possess an arsenal of 10,000 rockets and mortar shells.
In 2007 Israel was hit by 2433 projectiles and in 2008 during Operation Cast Lead terror groups fired 3,557 projectiles. In 2012 during Operation Pillar of Defense Israel was struck by 2,771 rockets and in 2014, which coincided with Operation Protective Edge, Israel was bombarded by 4897 projectiles.
Earlier this month southern Israel was struck by close to some 400 rocket and mortar shells alone.
While the army has also been engaged with the Gaza Strip on a weekly basis for the past seven months of violent protests along the security fence, the military believes that Lebanon’s Hezbollah is the most significant strategic threat.
Backed by Iran, the Shia terror group possesses over 100,000 rockets and missiles which can strike most of Israel.
Jerusalem has repeatedly said it would not allow the shipment of advanced weaponry from Iran to Hezbollah via Syria and has admitted to carrying out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria against Hezbollah weapons convoys and Iranian targets.
The fighting in Syria’s civil war has also led to incoming rocket sirens wailing in Israel’s usually pastoral and serene north due to errant projectiles, drones or fighter planes crossing into Israeli airspace and Israeli missile defense systems shooting them down.
Hezbollah has also gained years of battlefield knowledge after fighting for years on the side of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the country’s civil war and is also reported to have sent fighters to Yemen to train Houthi rebels which have been engaged against a Saudi-led coalition.
3a) Hamas: Palestinians aided Israeli commandos in botched Gaza operation
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF
On November 11, Lt.-Col. M. was killed and another Israeli soldier was moderately wounded in a firefight between an IDF mission and Hamas operatives in the southern Gaza Strip.
A Hamas source announced that the Palestinian terror organization was also to uncover more information about the botched IDF operation in Gaza earlier in November, which left one soldier, Lt.-Col. M. dead, according to a report in the Lebanese Al-Akhbar.
The report states that Israeli soldiers entered Gaza multiple times before the operation through the Kerem Shalom crossing, the Palestinian side of which is under the control of the Palestinian Authority, in order to install listening devices aimed at Hamas's communications network. In one instance, the commandos were disguised as workers for a Palestinian telecommunications company and installed the surveillance equipment east of Gaza city.
Before their final operation, the Israeli soldiers entered Gaza through the Erez checkpoint using false identities.
While Israel launched dozens of rockets at the vehicle used by the Israeli commandos before their capture, according to the report Hamas was nevertheless able to extract important information about the unit's operations.
Al-Akhbar also reported that Palestinians inside Gaza helped the Israeli team.
On November 11, Lt.-Col. M. was killed and another Israeli soldier was moderately wounded in a firefight between an IDF mission and Hamas operatives in the southern Gaza Strip.
Earlier, Hamas had released photos of individuals whom they claimed were members of the Israeli commando team. In an irregular public statement, the IDF Spokesperson's Unit and the Military Censor asked the public to refrain from posting the pictures on social media so as not to aid Hamas.
“Hamas is currently trying to decipher and understand the incident that took place deep inside Gaza (11/11) and any piece of information, even if it is considered harmless by those publishing it, is liable to endanger human lives and harm state security,” the IDF said.
The report states that Israeli soldiers entered Gaza multiple times before the operation through the Kerem Shalom crossing, the Palestinian side of which is under the control of the Palestinian Authority, in order to install listening devices aimed at Hamas's communications network. In one instance, the commandos were disguised as workers for a Palestinian telecommunications company and installed the surveillance equipment east of Gaza city.
Before their final operation, the Israeli soldiers entered Gaza through the Erez checkpoint using false identities.
While Israel launched dozens of rockets at the vehicle used by the Israeli commandos before their capture, according to the report Hamas was nevertheless able to extract important information about the unit's operations.
Al-Akhbar also reported that Palestinians inside Gaza helped the Israeli team.
On November 11, Lt.-Col. M. was killed and another Israeli soldier was moderately wounded in a firefight between an IDF mission and Hamas operatives in the southern Gaza Strip.
Earlier, Hamas had released photos of individuals whom they claimed were members of the Israeli commando team. In an irregular public statement, the IDF Spokesperson's Unit and the Military Censor asked the public to refrain from posting the pictures on social media so as not to aid Hamas.
“Hamas is currently trying to decipher and understand the incident that took place deep inside Gaza (11/11) and any piece of information, even if it is considered harmless by those publishing it, is liable to endanger human lives and harm state security,” the IDF said.
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4)
The Federal Reserve has done an outstanding job fulfilling its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. To keep the economy in this happy Goldilocks position, the Fed should hold off on raising rates at its December meeting and consider incoming data before deciding when—or even whether—to resume tightening.
4)
The Case for Pausing the Interest-Rate Climb
By Jason Furman
The Fed predicted another increase this year, but changing conditions should lead it to reconsider.
The Federal Reserve has done an outstanding job fulfilling its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. To keep the economy in this happy Goldilocks position, the Fed should hold off on raising rates at its December meeting and consider incoming data before deciding when—or even whether—to resume tightening.
For much of the postcrisis period, the Fed relied on forward guidance—publicly committing not to raise the federal-funds rate without signaling a shift long in advance. This assured markets that short-term rates would stay near zero until there were clear, persistent signs that the economy had fully recovered. Yet even then the Fed was a poor predictor of its own behavior, frequently releasing “dot plot” forecasts that overestimated how early the rate increases would begin and how steep they would be.
The Fed’s poor predictions of its own actions were actually a sign of the soundness of its decision making. Instead of sticking to a rigid plan, it changed course based on new developments, including unexpected headwinds from the global economy.
With interest rates in positive territory, forward guidance is no longer needed. Accordingly, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has de-emphasized dot-plot forecasts, saying “We don’t have the ability to see that far into the future, so I really wouldn’t put a lot in that.”
Certain strong economic indicators may encourage the Fed to stay the course of normalizing rates. The state of the labor market looks a lot like full employment, with the jobless rate near the lowest level on record, and employment for prime-age workers back to its prerecession rate. Workers are showing their confidence by quitting their jobs at high rates, and employers are posting record numbers of openings.
Wage growth has picked up but is still below the rates seen in the late 1990s. This slower growth is not necessarily evidence of a slack labor market. Productivity growth is running around 1%, compared with about 3% in the late 1990s, which explains lower wage growth. Recent wage gains have been fastest for workers in the bottom quintile. Overall, this is what a hot labor market looks like in an economy that still suffers from low productivity growth.
These factors underscore the importance of staying ahead of possible inflation, which is harder to counteract after it starts to accelerate. But that goal needs to be weighed against the possibility of accidentally preventing an extended period of high employment by raising rates too soon. Allowing lower-interest borrowing to continue could keep the economy steady, bringing more people back to the labor market and potentially raising real wages even higher.
The Fed’s interest-rate increases earlier this year balanced this uncertainty in a reasonable way, keeping monetary conditions stimulative while taking care not to overheat. The Fed’s plan to raise rates in December also looked reasonable three months ago—but it looks much less reasonable now.
Since late August financial conditions have tightened substantially: The S&P 500 is down 8%, long-term interest rates are up about 0.2 percentage point, and the trade-weighted dollar has strengthened by 2%. Collectively these changes are equivalent to about two federal-funds rate hikes. The Fed’s governors might have thought in September that another increase would be needed by year’s end, but they should acknowledge that the market beat them to it.
At the same time, the global economy is weakening. Germany and Japan posted negative growth rates in the third quarter; growth in China slowed to its lowest pace, on a year-over-year basis, since the global financial crisis; and last month the International Monetary Fund reduced its forecast for global growth in 2018 compared with its projection this summer. The Fed wisely slowed its normalization plan to accord with similar global economic tremors in 2015-16, and it should do so again at the coming meeting.
The biggest reason for caution is surprisingly low inflation. The core consumer-price index, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, has increased at a mere 1.6% annual rate since July. That’s below the 2.3% it grew over the previous 12 months, and lower than most analysts expected when the Fed set out on its current course. This inflation slowdown is puzzling given the tightening labor market and rising wage growth, and it may prove transitory. Financial markets, forecasters and the public haven’t revised down their predictions for inflation. But there would be little downside to the Fed waiting a few months to find out.
Looking forward, fiscal stimulus will be much smaller in 2019 than this year, and the trade war could take an increasing toll on growth. These facts aren’t new, but information about how the economy responds to them will be, and it will be important to monitor this new data going forward.
John Maynard Keynes is reported, perhaps apocryphally, to have said that he was willing to change his mind when the facts changed. One reason the economy is so strong now is that the Fed has been willing to change its mind as the facts develop. That adaptability makes policy more predictable, not less, because it enables monetary policy to act as a hedge against economic developments.
It’s time for the Fed’s governors to remind us that they are not on a preset course dictated by hawks or by doves, but instead are acting like owls—peering through the dark and updating their movements based on the latest scurryings of the mice.
Mr. Furman, a professor of practice at the Harvard Kennedy School, was chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, 2013-17.
4a) Ways to Make Putin Pay for Ukraine
Cancel the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and don’t canoodle at the G-20.
The Editorial Board
Russia’s attack against Ukraine over the weekend marks a notable escalation: Russian forces, under Russian flags, openly assaulted their western neighbor. President Trump said he was “not happy,” while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo condemned “this aggressive Russian action.” Strong rhetoric helps, but there’s also scope for concrete action—especially if the U.S. and Europe cooperate.
A start would deny Mr. Putin the international respect he craves, and this week’s G-20 summit in Argentina offers a chance to isolate the Russian leader. President Trump can call off his meeting with Mr. Putin pending a substantive gesture, such as release of the two dozen Ukrainian sailors Russia kidnapped in its skirmish. Such leverage is more effective than whatever charm Mr. Trump thinks he can deploy against Mr. Putin.
Russia’s economy is another vulnerability the West can exploit. Congress is considering new financial sanctions, and targeting a major Russian bank or banning U.S. investment in Russian government debt would add stress on Mr. Putin’s regime.
Such sanctions will work best if implemented in coordination with Europe. New measures will be a tough sell in countries like Italy and Greece. Yet recent months also have brought a new awareness of the threat of Russian espionage across Europe, which could concentrate some minds.
Germany deserves a special mention, as Berlin enjoys considerable leverage thanks to the proposed Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would carry natural gas from Russia to the West. Mr. Putin hopes this conduit through the Baltic Sea will tighten his energy grip on Western Europe while allowing him to cut off Ukraine and other Eastern European states from gas-transit revenues.
But the project isn’t necessary, especially with U.S. natural-gas exports increasing. Now is a good moment for Chancellor Angela Merkel to revisit her government’s approval. It’s notable that leaders of the Green Party, now Germany’s second-largest party by some measures, oppose the pipeline. Green leader Cem Ozdemir warned earlier this year, “If we want Putin to take us seriously again, then just stop the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 2.”
NATO needn’t directly defend Ukraine, which isn’t an alliance member. But increasing its presence in the Black Sea is worth considering as a show of solidarity. Washington and allies also can heighten the potential costs of future Russian actions around the Sea of Azov by selling Kiev more lethal military assistance, such as antiship missiles.
Ukraine’s Russia problem is a more urgent version of everyone else’s. Mr. Putin wants to expand his influence from the Arctic Circle to Africa. Absent a forceful response to the weekend’s events, more Russian affronts will come soon enough.
4b) Europe’s Migrant Disaster Should Teach America a Lesson
Even Hillary Clinton now admits the Continent erred in allowing entry of too many unvetted ‘refugees.’
By Jason L Riley
Political up-and-comers like New York’s Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez might feel comfortable comparing Central American migrants to Jewish families fleeing Nazi Germany, as she did in a tweet the other day. But some elder statesmen in her party seem to know better.
Take Hillary Clinton, who surprised a lot of people last week when she told a British newspaper that “Europe needs to get a handle on migration.” She said the Continent’s leaders should make clear that they are “not going to be able to continue to provide refuge and support” to any and all who want to come. Border chaos fuels anti-immigrant populism, be it in the U.S. or Europe—and she should know. During the 2016 campaign, Mrs. Clinton’s focus was making the Mexico border more open rather than more secure, and she believes that’s one of the reasons Donald Trump was elected president.
Delivering the Nelson Mandela Annual Lecture in South Africa in July, Barack Obama went further. “It’s not wrong to insist that national borders matter, [that] whether you’re a citizen or not is going to matter to a government, that laws need to be followed,” he said. Newcomers, Mr. Obama added, “should make an effort to adapt to the language and customs of their new home. Those are legitimate things, and we have to be able to engage people who do feel as if things are not orderly.”
Right now, the situation on America’s southern border is anything but orderly, and Europe is a cautionary tale for Democrats who think national boundaries are passé. In his recent book, “The Strange Death of Europe,” British journalist Douglas Murray explains how the Continent became a prime example of how to mishandle cross-border migrant flows. The Arab uprisings and Syrian civil war displaced millions of people from mostly Muslim countries. Many fled to a Europe caught unawares by the numbers. When the migrants showed up in places like Greece, Italy and Norway, laws went unenforced. Refugee protocols were tossed aside. Vetting ranged from poor to nonexistent. Criminality was played down. And fake asylum seekers were indulged instead of deported.
Years before U.S. reporters were interviewing Central American caravaners as they headed north, the European press was traveling alongside migrants as they passed through poorer countries like Hungary to reach richer ones like Germany and Sweden. “The fundamental right to asylum does not have a limitation,” said German Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2015, as the crisis was worsening. Would-be migrants from far and wide happily took her up on the offer. “Over the next 48 hours The New York Times reported a surge of migrant movement from Nigeria, among other countries, as people saw that a window of opportunity had opened for citizenship in Europe,” writes Mr. Murray.
Even when European officials determined that a migrant had no legitimate asylum claim, he often was allowed to stay. Left-wing activists strenuously opposed deportation for any reason. Word of lax enforcement spread quickly and proved a major magnet for illegal immigration. Citing data from the European Commission, Mr. Murray reports that a majority of the migrants who traveled to Europe in 2015 “had not been asylum seekers but economic migrants,” who had “no more right to be in Europe than anyone else in the world.”
In her interview, Mrs. Clinton praised the “generous and compassionate” approach taken by some European countries to deal with the largest refugee crisis since World War II. But where was the compassion for the citizens of these countries who count on their governments to keep them safe? Norway was so concerned about the increase in reported rapes that followed a large influx of Muslim refugees that it began offering etiquette classes to new arrivals. The program, reported the New York Times, “seeks to prevent sexual and other violence by helping male immigrants from societies that are largely segregated or in which women show neither flesh nor public affection to adapt to more open European societies.”
The same officials Mrs. Clinton lauded also made their countries more susceptible to acts of terror. The man who in July 2016 carried out Germany’s first Islamist suicide bombing was a Syrian refugee and failed asylum seeker. Shouldn’t a country’s immigration policies prioritize the welfare of its citizens?
The good news is that America’s troubles on the southern border pale in comparison to what Western Europe has experienced. The bad news is that the situation on this side of the Atlantic continues to worsen. The president’s anti-immigrant agenda is as well-known as it is misguided, but he’s right to take the caravan situation more seriously than Jim Acosta of CNN does. Mr. Trump wants the U.S. to learn from Europe’s recent mistakes, while too many Democrats seem hell-bent on repeating them.
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