More humor:
Nine Important Facts to Remember as We Grow Older
#9 - Death is the number 1 killer in the world.
#8 - Life is sexually transmitted.
#7 - Good health is merely the slowest possible rate at which one can die.
#6 - Men have 2 motivations: hunger and hanky-panky, and they can't tell them apart. If you see a gleam in his eyes, make him a sandwich.
#5 - Give a person a fish and you feed them for a day. Teach a person to use the Internet and they won't bother you for weeks, months, maybe years.
#4 - Health nuts are going to feel stupid someday, lying in the hospital, dying of nothing.
#3 - All of us could take a lesson from the weather. It pays no attention to criticism.
#2 - In the 60's, people took LSD to make the world weird. Now the world is weird, and people take Prozac to make it normal.
#1 - Life is like a jar of jalapeno peppers. What you do today may be a burning issue tomorrow.
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A new Rant. (See 1 below.)
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For the last few days I have been absorbed in other activities and have not caught much news. I have, however, had a lot of random thoughts about a myriad of subjects and decided I would express them. I will first begin with a correction.
a) A friend and fellow memo reader brought to my attention that TITLE IX was passed during the Nixon Administration. That said, implementation and significant enforcement really began in the Obama Administration as false accusations, against males on campus, began to escalate and the Obama Administration seemed more than willing to jump to guilty conclusions before the facts were investigated and revealed. This behaviour follows a pattern set by Obama in numerous instances.
b) Animus towards men has accelerated over the past few decades. Mona Charen writes the second phase of Feminism began in 1960. The basis for it started with a few women who had personal grievances and whose home/family circumstances were beyond normal.
One might correctly conclude the third phase of Feminism began with the "Me Too Movement" as more women, who previously covered up their angst, finally began to speak out against unacceptable behaviour towards their gender.
What I find interesting is not the speaking out but the way most all "movements" seem to evolve. They generally begin with a few voices and then are followed by a cacophony that draws in more radical types which, lamentably take over the "call," and set it back as it reaches unsupportable extremes. Eventually the flame of passion dies but things are never the same.
c) Even more disturbing is the apparent need to obliterate established scientific facts in order to further the "cause." Eventually this results in outrageous and unsupportable factions bordering on alphabet soup. From male and female, we evolve into all types of side human descriptions and then morph into demands as they become acceptable norms. Finally, they extend into outrageous nonsense , ie. what bathrooms all these aberrant protesters have the right to use etc.
d) And this leads me to an insightful article I recently posted about why an increasing number of Americans no longer support/embrace democracy. Whereas in our beginning as a nation, we embraced the concept of "organization joining" and this perpetuated the "bizarre" concept of structuring democratic institutions anathema to personal norms, ie. subjugating one's interests to that of the whole.
Now we have morphed more and more into a society of the self-interested. We have lost sight of the right's of others as taking precedent. This,in turn, has led to outrageous attacks on others who seek to express their views, to exercise their freedoms and all of a sudden we find ourselves being drowned in voices who reject our constitutional roots, who reject the idea of capitalism as preferred over socialism.
Irrational anti-constitutional views do not stop there. They spread amoebic-ally into virtually every aspect of civil life from support of open borders to embracing anti-social behaviour to actually using tax dollars to support and encourage it's spread.
Once we begin to cast aside our historical respect and abeyance of laws there is no telling where this virus will spread. Should it continue, as I fear it will, a dysfunctioning republic will eventually morph into chaos. All along, this has been the goal of those who profit from such and/or who have always questioned the merit of America. Here, I refer to radical academics who have taken over critical college/university departments and who are teaching their brand of discord and inculcating their bile upon naive and penetrable, youthful minds.
Our republic is fragile. It rests upon voluntary attributes, respect for law and a willingness to sacrifice for the good of the whole. Once we become self-centered, nihilistic we risk implosion. I submit we are trending in that direction as we lose faith in our institutions, our politicians to do what is best for our nation rather than feathering their own power nests and perpetuating their own wealth achievement.
Harry Reid, Diane Feinstein, Obama and their ilk became multi-millionaires while "serving" the nation and have used their influence in questionable ways.
As we learned recently, Feinstein sought to "frag" Kavanaugh in order to curry favor with the radicals who have taken over the Democrat Party because they cannot accept the fact that they are being rejected by voters who are fed up with the results of their policies etc.
Booker thought he was Spartacus when , in fact, he looked more like a "hooker."
c) Another fleeting thought relates to the constant harassment of Trump and his pursuit, by Mueller and total disregard of balance.
It has become obvious, Mueller feels no legal constraints regarding his initial charge to seek out Russian Collusion. His convictions, to date, go far afield. If this statement is factual then why not pursue what Congressional investigations have brought to light as well? It is obvious, to any reasonable observer, Clinton , members of our Intelligence and Justice Departments were up to their armpits in questionable behaviour. They resorted to illegalities by the bushel load yet ,Mueller ignores. Why?
Mueller's apparent bias against Trump will only serve to sully any conclusion he reaches and that serves no national interest but sure will compound more discord.
The fact that Trump is a president with an out-sized, unorthodox and often grating personality does not justify Mueller's own questionable behaviour.
d) Finally, an act bordering on the male equivalent of Jane Fonda's. Former Sec. Kerry decided that it was alright to get in bed with Iran in order to thwart Pompeo's efforts to enforce the ending of Obama/Kerry's Iran Deal. We know Kery , through his daughter's marriage, has family ties to Iran and Obama shoved billions in cash at night down open Iranian throats but does not the buck end when they are no longer in government?
How far does the reach of "treasonous" behaviour go, how long must we tolerate such despicable behaviour? (See 2 below.)
You decide!
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Dick
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1) Be careful what you believe from industries and economists about the impact of tariffs. Everyone has an agenda, and everyone plays with the data. Keep in mind the tariff is on landed cost, not retail prices. Depending on the item, and if it is a component or a final retail item, the landed cost might be 20% or 80% less than final retail price. So, to make a simplistic example, let’s assume a widget landed cost is $6.00 and the final retail price is $9.00 accounting for all the shipping, admin and profit margin in between. A 25% tariff on $6.00 is $1.50 or 11.66% of retail price. Now assume the Chinese exporter agrees to eat a part of the tariff -say $.75. Now the landed cost is $5.25 and the tariff is $1.31. Now assume the retailer -Walmart, is willing to eat part of that- say $.25. so now the added cost before retail mark up is $1.06. That is still an 11.7% increase in price, but only $1.06 so not the crisis increase Walmart will claim. This is just for illustration, and the whole issue is very complex due to differing products, is it a component to be assembled in the US into another more costly product, is it passing thru a wholesaler who might eat some of the tariff, and what sort of mark-up can they do at each level. Point is, don’t buy the BS of all the companies who import products, as they are all trying to make it sound worse than it might really be. Not to minimize that tariffs are generally bad, but just be skeptical of claims about the impact. It is very different for different items.
It is hard to know what is happening on Brexit. There needs to be a deal signed shortly to meet the preset schedule, but if so, it is not at all clear Parliament will agree. The final outcome is still very unclear. The BOE is keeping Mark Carney as head until end of next year to be able to consistently deal with a hard Brexit, or other disruption, should that happen. The BOE has already set plans to support banks and credit, should things go off track on a hard Brexit. The UK is well prepared, as are banks and companies, so whatever happens will not be a crisis or disaster. It will create disruptions, but after he initial chaos, it will get calmer quickly. The government has already told the public to stock up on drugs and food as Brexit nears to avoid any disruptions in imports. Life will go on. The UK will do bilateral deals with the US and the EU if there is a hard Brexit.
To keep the facts straight, GDP in 2016 under Obama went from 2.3% in Q2, to 1.9% Q3, to 1.8% Q4, to .8% Q1 20017 before Trump had time to do anything. So for the Dems to claim Obama is responsible for the economic growth we now have is pure BS. In fact the economy was slowing materially going into 2017. Unemployment was much higher in U6, wages were stagnant, productivity was terrible and stagnant, and capital investment was minimal. All that has reversed to the positive in the past 18 months. The US is the only high performing economy in the world right now, and the Dems are trying to claim Trump is not responsible for that??? The one issue we need to worry about is the good news is wages are rising at 2.9%, and maybe more in some industries like trucking. The bad news is wages are rising and may go higher, and then inflation will go higher. Thanks to the high dollar, online price competition between Amazon and Walmart and others, and much better productivity starting to happen thanks to much greater cap ex into tech programs for ordinary companies to improve productivity, inflation will likely remain under control for now.
Both JP Morgan and Moodys Analytics are projecting a recession in 2020. They believe the deficit will create problems and rates will rise to a level that will turn the growth to a slide, and possibly a decline of 20% in stock prices. Their point is mainly that the huge fiscal stimulus of the tax cuts and the excessive 2018 Congressional budget, will wear off by 2020. In my discussions with them, while they are very concerned, they admit they really do not know what will happen. There are so many black swans right now that anything could happen either way. Maybe the US and China will resolve trade and IP issues in the coming months, and the whole tariff and trade issue will become a positive. China will have to change how it does business so it is hard to know. Maybe the Republicans will hold both houses and things in DC will be somewhat stable- at least by DC terms. Maybe the new budget will start to attack the deficit which is the biggest cause of recession fear- doubtful but maybe. Maybe there will be a Iranian revolt and there will not be a military crisis in the Mideast. If there is a revolution it will be very violent and many dead, but it would change history completely. So maybe, maybe. Nobody knows what the next 24 months will bring so stay ready to get out if needed. If the US has a market selloff, the rest of the world will be awful, so stay with the US.
Despite all that is happening, the market continues strong. S&P is up approximately 8.6% YTD, vs US intermediate government bonds total return of (.6%), Emerging markets (11.1%), Muni 4-6 yr total return 1.1%. The annualized total return for the S&P over last 3 yrs is 16.2% compound annual return. Quant funds are down 4% YTD on average. They need to recode their algorithms. The fund managers are doing fine with their 2% fees. All US equities managed by yourself continues to be the big winner by far. My total portfolio is up 13.68% YTD following that strategy. You need to find your own comfort zone and way you manage your own money.
This latest disgraceful fiasco by Feinstein to derail Kavanaugh is beyond anything we even saw in the Thomas and Bork confirmations. The Dems, and especially Feinstein, have demeaned themselves, the entire Senate and the confirm process to a degree that is unimaginable. Even Judge Ginsberg has stated the process is off the track now. The FBI said it had the letter and merely put it in a file with no action. 65 women who have known him for 35 years sent a letter to say he is a perfect gentleman. The other guy who was named in the “letter” said it never happened. Feinstein likely told someone from San Fran to write it.
As they did each time someone in some relationship with Trump was pleading guilty to something totally unrelated to Trump, the press is pouncing on it hoping the person is going to implicate Trump. It has not happened so far and Michael Cohn is not credible. Manafort is not going to dump on Trump for two reasons- there was no collusion, and he wants a pardon. The press is going to be disappointed again.
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2) Did John Kerry Commit Treason?
Promoting his new book Every Day Is Extra, the former secretary of state in the Obama administration confirmed he met with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif a number of times in recent months to help the Iranians salvage the nuclear deal canceled by President Trump and later to strategize with him on how to get around the administration’s policies.
Current Secretary of State Mike Pompeo commented at a news conference:
“What Secretary Kerry has done is unseemly and unprecedented…It’s inconsistent with what the foreign policy of the United States is, as directed by this president. It is beyond inappropriate.”
An understatement.
The president had harsher words in a tweet:
“John Kerry had illegal meetings with the very hostile Iranian Regime, which can only serve to undercut our great work to the detriment of the American people. He told them to wait out the Trump Administration! Was he registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act? BAD!”
Trump was right to call out Kerry for a possible violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, a 1938 statue which requires a person acting as an agent of a foreign entity in a political or quasi-political capacity make regular public disclosures of this relationship, including activities and disbursements.
This is not the first time Kerry met with a foreign entity and acted against the policies of his country. In 1970, as a naval reservist, he traveled to Paris and met with the North Vietnamese delegation in the middle of the U.S.’ war against North Vietnam. He later advocated for the North Vietnamese peace plan and urged then president Richard Nixon to accept it. The plan basically called for the U.S. to surrender and pay reparations to North Vietnam.
One could argue that with the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, Kerry was responsible for making the worst deal of the century. In his quest to reach an agreement at any cost for his and his boss’ legacy, he succeeded in imperiling the entire world. The deal released billions of dollars to the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism and actually enabled the goal of Iran’s fanatical mullahs: access to nuclear weapons (this would have happened in 2025 due to the 10-year sunset clause in the deal).
Further, the deal Kerry negotiated put inspections and compliance into Iran’s very hands, in effect making it worth less than the paper it was written on.
Since the deal was made and its pockets were flush with cash, Iran embarked on a brutal and bloody journey through Iraq, Syria and Yemen to complete its goal of establishing a Shiite crescent from the Islamic Republic to Lebanon. It has continued to stretch its tentacles into Africa and North and South America.
Trump’s shift in course from the Obama administration – from cancelling the agreement to the imposition of severe economic sanctions on the Iranian regime – is the one and only effective policy at this point to stop the terrorist, expansionist project of the regime.
Kerry’s actions – which amount to aiding and abetting an enemy of the United States – should be met with the full force of the law.
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