Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Erdogan A Menace.145th Day. Ramadan Explosion? Berkley Disgrace.


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Body Language Experts Think Fani Willis Wearing Her Dress Backwards Was the Least of Her Problems
https://pjmedia.com/victoria-taft/2024/02/27/heres-what-the-body-language-experts-say-about-fanis-performance-n4926825
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I agree Turkey is a threat to western unity and NATO but, if what Roman suggests were to occur, it would, in my opinion, throw Turkey into Russia's arms.  Erdogan has options. He is a dangerous menace.
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Turkey Must Be Isolated and Condemned
by Gregg Roman - Israel Hayom

https://www.meforum.org/65604/turkey-must-be-isolated-and-condemned

The Turkish parliament voted to accept Sweden as a member of NATO last month, but this should not distract us from how outrageous Turkish rhetoric and behavior have been under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Turkey is wildly out of step with other NATO members. Turkish language about Israel is unhinged. Erdogan accused Israel of carrying out "the most heinous attacks in human history"; equated Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with Adolf Hitler, giving Netanyahu the moniker the "butcher of Gaza"; and accused Israel of being a "terror state" that is committing genocide in Gaza.

On the other hand, Erdogan referred to Hamas as a "liberation group" and refused to categorize it as a terrorist organization. Turkish behavior toward Israel has been no less reprehensible and sets it apart from the rest of NATO. Ankara removed Israel as a favored export target to discourage Turkish companies from engaging in commerce with Israel. The Turks also assisted South Africa in that country's ludicrous case against Israel in the International Court of Justice, furnishing Pretoria with "evidence" of Israeli "genocide." When an Israeli soccer player, Sagiv Jehezkel, expressed solidarity with Israeli hostages, he was detained by Turkish authorities. Turkey's Justice Minister said that Jehezkel was under investigation because he had "openly incited the public to hatred and hostility" with "an ugly gesture in support of the Israeli massacre in Gaza."

 
Gregg Roman is director of the Middle East Forum
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Israel’s 145th Day of War
By Sherwin Pomerantz

On the 145th day of the war Israel continues its efforts to move Palestinians in southern Gaza to areas way from Rafah in anticipation of a military operation there sooner rather than later.  Fighting continues nevertheless in all parts of Gaza.  Sadly rocket alerts continue to come in to communities located near the Gaza border.

In the north, Hezbollah has fired some 100 rockets at northern Israel since the beginning of the week in response to an IDF strike on its stronghold deep in Lebanon Monday.  About 40 rockets were launched over the course of Tuesday morning towards the Galilee and Meron alone, causing no casualties.

The IDF did take rare credit for an assassination in southern Lebanon Monday. Senior Hezbollah terrorist, Hassan Hussein Salami was killed while in a moving car in between villages.  Salami was the equivalent of a brigadier general and was responsible for co-ordinating attacks on civilian and IDF sites in Israel, including the launching of anti-tank missiles at the Kiryat Shmona area and the headquarters of the 769th Brigade.  The launches are Hezbollah’s way of showing support for Hamas in its war with Israel. The question is now whether Hezbollah will limit its reaction to just these rocket launches, and whether the IDF will expand its attacks on the terrorists to regain security for tens of thousands of Israeli citizens who were evacuated in October and have yet to come back home.

Details of a revised hostage deal awaiting Hamas’ agreement that would only cover some of the abductees were reported by Reuters on Tuesday.  The latest Israel offer is for 40 hostages who are over the age of 50 and under 19, those who are ill, and all remaining women. In exchange, Israel will stop all military activity for 40 days (i.e. probably the period of Ramadan), release 400 terrorists, including those with blood on their hands, increase the number of humanitarian aid trucks going into Gaza to 500 per day, and deliver thousands of tents and mobile homes for those who fled their homes ahead of the IDF incursion into the Strip.  In addition, Israel reportedly agreed to restore the functioning of bakeries and rehabilitate hospitals in the coastal enclave. The IDF has already given fuel and medical supplies to several of the hospitals they cleared of terrorists so that they could continue to function.

Humanitarian aid to Gaza is a controversial subject in Israel, as its critics say it Is stolen by Hamas instead of being given to civilians, thereby prolonging the war.  According to this outline, Israel stood firm in rejecting Hamas’ demand for a cessation of the war and complete withdrawal of IDF troops from the Gaza Strip.

Qatari media outlet Al Jazeera meanwhile reported Monday night that in exchange for the 40 hostages, Israel has agreed to withdraw its troops from Gazan population centers, stop patrol flights over Gaza for eight hours a day, and allow the gradual return of non-military age civilians to the northern end of the Strip.  In both reports, Israel agreed not to rearrest those terrorists whom it releases.

Hamas officials said on Tuesday night that there had been no breakthrough in the mediated talks with Israel aimed at pausing the war and freeing the remaining hostages in the Gaza Strip, one day after President Biden said he was hopeful that a cease-fire would be in place by next week.  Basem Naim, a Hamas spokesman, said in a text message that the militant group had yet to formally receive “any new proposals” since senior Israeli officials met with Qatari, Egyptian and U.S. mediators in Paris last week to advance a possible deal.

Another Hamas official, Ahmad Abdelhadi, said that the group was sticking to its demand that Israel agree to a long-term cease-fire and that leaks about the talks were designed to pressure Hamas to soften its position.  “We are not interested in engaging with what’s been floated, because it does not fulfill our demands,” Mr. Abdelhadi said Tuesday in a televised interview with al-Mayadeen, a Lebanese broadcaster.

Qatar, a key mediator in the talks, also expressed caution on Tuesday, saying it could not comment on Mr. Biden’s view that negotiators were nearing an agreement.  “The efforts are ongoing; all the parties are conducting regular meetings,” Majed al-Ansari, a spokesman for the Qatari foreign ministry, told reporters in Doha. “But for now, while we certainly hope it will be achieved as soon as possible, we don’t have anything in our hands so as to comment on that deadline.”

Future Leadership  
 
Another potential leader for the post ware government is Sapir Harosh, currently a director on the board of Grip Security. Previously Sapir was with Pitango, Israel’s largest venture capital fund with over $2.5 billion under management. During her time at the fund, Harosh was involved in 20+ investments in early-stage tech start-ups, overseeing 8 of them from sourcing to transaction. She also served as an observer in the boards of 7 companies, including Komodor, PayEm, Frontegg, Swimm, and companies that are still in stealth mode.

Harosh has an extensive network of relationships, skillfully used to locate teams in preliminary stages as potential companies for investment. This network includes colleagues from elite military units, start-ups, angel investors, accelerators, local and global venture capital funds, and start-up service providers. She works closely and regularly with the entrepreneurs and management teams of all companies, assisting them with client relations, talent recruitment, strategic thinking, product development, introductions to the world’s leading capital funds, etc.

Harosh began her career while serving in IDF's elite 8200 unit. In her last position there, she was the recipient of the Unit Commander’s Award of Excellence for her work. Following professional service in the IDF, she relocated to New York, where she served as a procurement manager in the Ministry of Defense’s Mission to the US for two years – while taking part in sensitive procurement processes between the two countries, valued at hundreds of millions of dollars.

Harosh has 5+ years of experience in software engineering with expertise in cloud tech and DevOps and, before joining the venture capital world, had worked as a software engineer at RAFAEL (Rafael Advanced Defense Systems) and some start-ups. Harosh holds a  B.Sc.. in Software Engineering.  She is the youngest board member of the 8200 Alumni Association, where she founded the Young Alumni Community. Since founding the community in 2015, she has overseen all operations, including providing opportunities, employment options, networking, and events to the 4,000 community members who, in return, give back by promoting entrepreneurship and technology in the Israeli society. Harosh has volunteered to establish the community, teaming up with 10 other alumni to oversee its affairs.

Harosh is also a board member of Wize, one of Israel's largest content providers, making science, technology, politics, culture, and other content worlds available to 100,000+ Israelis by providing a platform for speakers in over 2,000 venues throughout Israel. In the past year, she has received recognition for her business and social efforts by being featured on Forbes 30 Under 30, a list of Israel’s 30 most influential people under 30 years old, published annually by Forbes Magazine.

For those who wonder if we have the talent to take Israel to its next stage of growth, Sapir is a shining example of people who can make a difference.
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Preventing a Ramadan Explosion in the Holy Land
by Jonathan Schanzer and Mark Dubowitz_The Liberal Patriot


https://schanzer.pundicity.com/27574/preventing-a-ramadan-explosion-in-the-holy-land


The Muslim holiday of Ramadan begins on March 11 this year. How Israel handles this month-long festival of fasting by day and feasting by night will exert significant influence on the wider conflict in the Middle East—and a possible hostage deal between Israel and Hamas that yields a pause in the current war in Gaza could help mitigate the prospects of unrest. Other players may have significant roles to play, too.

First, it is important to understand the role Ramadan has played in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over recent years.

The 11-day war between Israel and Hamas in 2021 was undeniably connected to Ramadan. It began after Israeli police, amidst security concerns, closed the plaza outside one of the gates of Jerusalem's Old City at the start of Ramadan. Nightly clashes erupted in the city, holy to all three monotheistic faiths. Tensions further escalated over reports of the possible eviction of Arab families from homes in the Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah (the eviction never occurred). Soon enough, the Iran-backed terrorist group Hamas began to fire rockets out of Gaza. In the final days of Ramadan, the violence spiraled into all-out war.

Not surprisingly, the Islamic Republic of Iran played a significant role in stoking that clash in 2021. On al-Quds Day—a day created in 1979 by the regime's first Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to make the last Friday of Ramadan a flash point between Israel and the Palestinians—current supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei exhorted Palestinians to "continue their legitimate, morally correct fight" against Israel. He hailed the use of "precision missiles," and glorified "martyrs" from terror groups.

The following year's Ramadan also proved violent. Hamas leader Khaled Meshal threatened that his group would "escalate in Ramadan, and we are on the verge of hot days." He was not wrong. The month of fasting was preceded by a week of terror that left 11 dead in Israel. After the holiday began, a terror shooting attack rocked Tel Aviv. Senior terrorist leaders encouraged their followers to attack Israel and warned of a "crime against al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan." Clashes soon erupted on the Temple Mount, where Palestinian agitators threw stones and shot fireworks at Israeli police who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets.

All signs pointed to another major conflict in 2022. But the policy of Naftali Bennett's government was an important factor in preventing a large conflagration. As Prime Minister Bennett's national security advisor Eyal Hulata, now a colleague at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told us, "the key was making sure that the Palestinians saw blue, not olive, uniforms." In other words, the presence of police rather than military troops was a psychological distinction that may have helped keep a lid on a wider conflict. Admittedly, a short war between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad did erupt that August, with some 1,100 rockets fired into Israel eliciting nearly 150 strikes by the Israeli Air Force.

Ramadan in 2023 passed without major incident. This was early in the tenure of the current government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. If anything, political unrest on the streets of Israel in response to the government's attempts at a judicial overhaul overshadowed the Palestinian arena.

This Ramadan could look a lot more like 2021. War has been raging in the Gaza Strip since Hamas perpetrated a mass slaughter of 1,200 Israelis on October 7 and took 241 Israelis and foreigners, including Americans, hostage. The subsequent war has brought destruction to Gaza, even as the Israeli military tries to limit civilian casualties in a brutal urban warfare environment where Hamas uses human shields. War on Israel's northern border kicked off one day after the Hamas assault when Hezbollah attacked Israel; Hezbollah has since carried out more than 700 attacks on Israeli territory.

As it fights Hamas in Gaza and against Hezbollah on Israel's northern border, the Israeli military has also operated almost nightly in the West Bank, arresting as many as 7,000 suspects, killing more than 200 terrorists, and destroying homes of those convicted of carrying out violence against Israel. The last few days alone have witnessed a terrorist attack near Maale Adumim, a drone strike against an Islamic Jihad commander in Jenin, and rock-throwing by Palestinians at Israeli vehicles. The West Bank is so volatile that today there are more Israeli military battalions operating there than in Gaza, according to a former Israeli official we spoke to earlier this month. This is to say nothing of the Iran-backed militias attacking Israel and the United States out of Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

In short, the region is on fire. The White House desperately seeks to prevent a wider war, particularly as America enters a presidential election cycle. Israel continues to work with Washington to this end, focusing primarily on the war in Gaza, while endeavoring to prevent other fronts from exploding. Israeli solutions have ranged from aggressive action to pre-empt terrorist attacks in the West Bank, to potentially offering greater freedoms to Arab residents of Jerusalem, to offering financial perks to the Palestinian Authority. While this might all sound helpful, none of these measures will matter amidst efforts by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to forge a unity government with Hamas. This initiative is deemed a nonstarter by the government in Jerusalem, which seeks to delegitimize (if not destroy) Hamas above all else.

But there's another factor that could undermine efforts to contain a violent Ramadan: Israel's right-wing minister for national security, Itamar Ben Gvir. The minister has vowed to bolster security in the West Bank and Jerusalem since the war began, messaging directly to his right-wing and religious supporters. His rhetoric has been troubling to some, including statementspromoting the re-settlement of Palestinians outside of Gaza.

Israeli forces under Ben Gvir's command—regardless of whether they wear blue or olive—have the potential to set off a chain reaction that nobody wants. Tensions are already rising over the security-related limitations that Israel may impose on prayers at the al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu must now consider sidelining Ben Gvir to the extent possible, for the sake of Israeli national security. The prime minister has the authority to take control of the Israeli police and other internal security forces under his command—and he should do so, at least temporarily during Ramadan. Doing so won't be easy, given that Ben Gvir is a key pillar of the Netanyahu government. Should Ben Gvir decide to walk away, Netanyahu would have to either replace his party in the coalition or face the prospect of new elections.

In the end, the real key to preventing a Ramadan explosion this year likely lies in a hostage deal between Hamas and Israel. Obviously, the Israelis are eager to make a deal that would see the release of more than 100 hostages held by Hamas for more than four months—and they are pushing hard for a deal before Ramadan begins. The French hosted meetings in Paris last Friday to that end, and those talks yielded an outline agreed upon by all sides. Negotiations are ongoing in Qatar, with some further signs of optimism.

Should a deal be reached in the next few days and weeks, it could lower the temperature across the region. If the last ceasefire was any indication, it could lead to a cessation or reduction of violence on the northern border with Lebanon, and perhaps mitigate security crises in the West Bank and Jerusalem. The United States could tout such a deal as providing respite to the Palestinian population in Gaza. Such a message might resonate across the Arab world during Ramadan, and ultimately make it easier for the Saudis to reengage on normalization talks with Israel.

A hostage deal during Ramadan might have one other positive impact. It could provide the Israelis and Egyptians the time they need to iron out a plan to deal with the estimated 1.4 million Palestinians currently sheltering in tents and temporary housing in the town of Rafah. The Israeli military will need to conduct ground maneuvers in Rafah soon to destroy the remaining Hamas battalions, block tunnels between Egypt and Gaza, and stop the transfer of weapons to Hamas. But a plan to evacuate civilians is urgently needed before this crucial battle can occur.

As always, there are many moving parts. Several malign actors—Iran, Qatar, Turkey, Hamas, Hezbollah—could play the role of spoiler. If there was ever a time for the United States to wield its influence as a superpower on these actors, this would be it. Washington must convey clearly to Qatar that it is time to get Hamas in line. The U.S. must also convey to Iran, Turkey, and the other Hamas backers that this year's Ramadan cannot spin out of control.

Calm must be brokered soon. A ceasefire during Ramadan is urgently needed. After that, war will almost certainly resume, with the goal of defeating Hamas's military in its entirety. But this objective must be achieved without sparking a regional conflict. With a little effort, a wider conflagration could be contained... at least for now.

Jonathan Schanzer is senior vice president for research at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Mark Dubowitz is chief executive officer. Follow them on X @JSchanzer and @MDubowitz.
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