++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Literally just returned from 6 days with our Florida kids and returned with our two grandchildren . Return them this Sunday.
Inundated with mail so am just posting a few items with no further commentary. Happiest and healthiest of New Year's.
And:
What Was the Enlightenment? | PragerU
Just as I wrote several memos ago the attacks on Barr and Durham would begin. Kim wrote in her book instances when the "Resistance" would leak to the NYT's/WAPO in order to get ahead of and neutralize their fear bad news was coming down the pike.
They now want Durham taken off the investigation.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Anything is possible because we are an open society increasingly less educated, less willing to/capable of reject(ing) those who would destroy our Republic because they have access to the rights and privileges that allow them to do so. (See 1 below.)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Salena Zito writes stories about home town America, the real America not what America came to be - urbanized, increasingly criminalized and a refuge for homeless etc. and you know the rest.
In her recent op ed she wrote about Everett Pa. and discussed how it was the town not passed by and this brought to mind the positive and negative impact of Eisenhower's National Highway System.
Main Positives: lowered the cost of transportation. provided enormous employment, sped-up deliveries and even provided straight stretches of runway for military planes to land in the event of war.
Ah, but with every positive there often comes a downside.
Main negatives: It destroyed so many communities and it forced people to move away and reconnecting never replaced what was lost. I believe America's divisiveness is, in part, the consequence and thus the argument for doing away with the electoral college. If you combine California, New York and some other large State you have the tail wagging the dog and you validate what Franklin allegedly responded when asked what we had: "a republic if you can keep it."
I maintain the Durham Report will expose how the radical "Resistance At All Cost" crowd , if not brought to justice, will destroy our Republic.
And: An update of her book:
The Great Revolt Enters a New Phase: How the Populist Uprising of 2016 Will Reverberate in 2020
“Whether or not the president ever turns his attention to winning over the voters who resist both socialism and his own style, other Republicans will be appealing to them. Suburban voters hold the keys to hotly contested 2020 Senate races in Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Colorado -- not to mention the entire slate of competitive House districts."
"The suburbs may be where control of government will be decided, but the 2020 election will not be the end of the coalition Trump mobilized in 2016 or the resistance that formed in response. Why? Because the individualization of our cultural economy and the self-sorting of our communities will keep fueling distrust of establishment institutions and keep roiling our political and consumer behaviors. Establishment politicians, CEOs and journalists all ignore the dynamism of this great revolt at their own peril." Click here for the full story.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Soros is a sick man and no psychiatrist can help him cure his hatred of Jews. (See 2 below.)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
|
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Hanson wraps up the past year. (See 4 below.)
And:
Ross closes out the year with one last Rant. (See 4a below.)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Dick
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1)
Is Iran Quietly Infiltrating Congress Through Democrats Like Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib?
By Tyler O'Neil
Earlier this month, House Democrats sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, urging sanctions relief for Iran. Among other things, they criticized "the designation of Iran's Central Bank under terror authorities," arguing that "the efficacy of sanctions is questionable." An organization long described as a front group for the Iran regime sponsored the letter and has embedded staffers with many of the letter's supporters in Congress, including Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.).
“Is Iran’s regime quietly infiltrating Congress?” M. Hanif Jazayeri, news editor at Free Iran, asked on Twitter. He pointed out that many of these congresswomen hired current or former staffers with the National Iranian-American Council (NIAC), an organization with many links to Iran's regime and which Iran state-media has described as "Iran's lobby" in the U.S.
Jazayeri added that NIAC "has a mole in Congress. [Samira Damavandi] is now a permanent Legislative Assistant in the Office of [Barbara Lee]. That could potentially give her (& the regime) access to US citizens' data."
Did some digging over the letter's authors. Found out @NIACouncil (Iran rgm's lobby in the US) has a mole in Congress. @samira_says is now a permanent Legislative Assistant in the Office of @RepBarbaraLee. That could potentially give her (& the regime) access to US citizens' data pic.twitter.com/lEk1k4bHTK— M. Hanif Jazayeri (@HanifJazayeri) December 18, 2019
"It turns out the Senior Legislative Assistant to [Ilhan Omar] is [none] other than [Mahyar Sorour] who in July was a candidate for NIAC Action's leadership board," Jazayeri added. He then alleged that NIAC "is an arm of Iran's Intelligence Ministry." This connection makes sense, given Ilhan Omar's many anti-Israel statements and Iran's condemnations of Israel.
Is Iran's regime quietly infiltrating Congress? It turns out the Senior Legislative Assistant to @Ilhan is non other than @mahyarsorour who in July was a candidate for NIAC Action's leadership board. @NIACouncil is an arm of Iran's Intelligence Ministry.
CC: @FBI @TheJusticeDept pic.twitter.com/NaWdG3nsPF— M. Hanif Jazayeri (@HanifJazayeri) December 18, 2019
"It turns out [Rashida Tlaib] has a staffer from [NIAC] (the Iranian regime's de facto lobby/embassy in the US), [Ethan Azad] handles a 'broad legislative portfolio, helping Rep. Tlaib’s office on foreign affairs … and government oversight,'" he added. "Is Congress safe from Iran's meddling?"
It turns out @RepRashida has a staffer from @NIACouncil (the Iranian regime's de facto lobby/embassy in the US).@ethanazad handles a "broad legislative portfolio, helping Rep. Tlaib’s office on foreign affairs … and government oversight"
Is Congress safe from Iran's meddling? pic.twitter.com/ZVlwafpSVn— M. Hanif Jazayeri (@HanifJazayeri) December 21, 2019
Jazayeri also pointed to Yasmine Taeb, whom he described as "an agent of NIAC," working for the Democratic National Committee (DNC). "Does the DNC know she gets her talking points from Iran's mullahs?" He also noted that NIAC got Taeb a congressional staffer position with Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.) and later "campaigned for her to join the DNC board." For her part, Taeb "got DNC to adopt a resolution calling for end to sanctions on the regime."
Here's an example of @NIACouncil (Iran's US lobby) influencing @DNC policies:
1) NIAC got @YasmineTaeb a Congressional staffer position w/ @RepKarenBass
2) It campaigned for her to join the DNC board
3) She got DNC to adopt a resolution calling for end to sanctions on the regime pic.twitter.com/aFQkMQ8Gz7— M. Hanif Jazayeri (@HanifJazayeri) December 22, 2019
This is how Congress often works. When a representative agrees with an advocacy group, he or she often hires staffers from that group. There is nothing inherently nefarious about this, although it does reveal where the representative stands on specific issues. Yet NIAC does have disturbing ties to Iran.
NIAC claims to be an organization dedicated to Persian heritage in America, and indeed Iran/Persia has a noble history and many Iranian-Americans have contributed a great deal to the U.S. Iranian-Americans can be proud of their heritage without advocating for a regime that oppresses its own people. However, the organization supports many policies that are friendly to the mullahs.
When Iranian-American journalist Hassan Daioleslam asserted that NIAC was lobbying on behalf of the mullahs, NIAC's president sued him for defamation. The lawsuit unearthed many documents showing a correspondence between NIAC and Mohammad Javad Zarif, then Iran's permanent representative to the U.N.
Even if NIAC is not a front for the mullahs, the group has long supported the disastrous Iran Nuclear Deal in the name of promoting peace with the mullahs, and it has long opposed sanctions on the Iranian regime. Its infiltration of congressional offices is troubling regardless of the truth of Daioleslam's allegations.
Follow Tyler O'Neil, the author of this article, on Twitter at @Tyler2ONeil
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
2) Soros’ War Against the Jews -
When George Soros hit middle age, he began seeing a shrink.
3) As Wednesday night deadline looms, Netanyahu expected to request immunity
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was expected Wednesday to ask the Knesset to grant him immunity from prosecution in the three corruption cases against him, as the clock counted down toward a midnight deadline for him to seek the protection.
2) Soros’ War Against the Jews -
Soros’ War Against the Jews
When George Soros hit middle age, he began seeing a shrink.
The ruthless financier’s problem was that he was burdened with an “oversized” sense of shame over a “guilty secret”. That guilty shameful secret which sent Soros to a psychoanalyst was “Jewishness”.
Soros’ Jewish problem was generational. He grew up in, in his own words, a “Jewish, anti-Semitic home”
He had adopted his father Tivadar’s worldview, that God was a human invention. It was Tivadar who forged and sold documents to Jews trying to escape the Holocaust, charging “wealthy clients”, as he put it, “whatever the market would bear”. And it was Tidavar who found his teenage son a place with a Hungarian fascist official who was confiscating Jewish property.
In his biography, Tivadar later described the trip to confiscate Jewish property as a move by the “kind-hearted” Nazi collaborator to “cheer the unhappy lad up” where after a dose of watching the persecution of Jews, “he quickly regained his spirits”. Soros would later describe this, a period that most Jews remember as a time of utter horror, as “the most exciting time of my life” or an “adventure”.
Tivadar’s amorality thoroughly infected his son. In an infamous 60 Minutes interview, which the Soros network and his media allies have worked hard to spin, Soros coolly agreed that he had “helped in the confiscation of property from the Jews.” Then denied any feelings of guilt. “It’s just like in the markets — that if I weren’t there — of course, I wasn’t doing it, but somebody else would,” he observed.
It echoed his response to allegations of hurting the British economy. “When you speculate in the financial markets, you are free of most of the moral concerns that confront an ordinary businessman.”
The father had profited from selling forged documents to wealthy Jews and the son had enjoyed being part of confiscating the property of a wealthy Jewish family. Neither father nor son, to whom the God of the bible was a human invention and Jewish kinship was mere “tribalism”, felt any guilt over it.
They had no moral or ethnic allegiances. They were not Jews, either ethnically or religiously.
Indeed, the name Soros was taken to cover up the Jewish origins of the family. Even before the war, Erzebet, Soros’ mother, had wanted to change their name so that her sons would not be stigmatized as Jews. If Tivadar was merely amoral, Erzebet actively despised Jews. “My mother was quite anti-Semitic and ashamed of being Jewish,” he told an interviewer. Erzebet had opposed circumcising Paul, George’s brother. Like other members of the Soros clan, Erzebet eventually converted to Christianity. But her son could not believe in either Judaism or Christianity. He had only one faith. In his own godhood.
“George did not convert,” Soros: The Life and Times of a Messianic Billionaire notes, “What sense would conversion make for someone who was an atheist?”
The grandson of a schizophrenic, the son of a glib financial manipulator and a neurotic mystic, George Soros would fuse the conflicted legacy of his parents by becoming his own moneyed god.
In a New Yorker interview, he discussed his sense of being a superhuman philanthropist. “God in the Old Testament has a number of attributes, you know. Like invisible– I was pretty invisible. Benevolent– I was pretty benevolent. All-seeing–I tried to be all-seeing. So I was playing it out.”
If God was merely a human invention, as George and his father believed, why couldn’t he be a god? The more wealth and power Soros amassed, the more he could play god in his godless world.
Or, as Soros put it on another occasion, “I carried some rather potent messianic fantasies with me from childhood which I felt I had to control, otherwise they might get me into trouble. But when I had made my way in the world, I wanted to indulge my fantasies to the extent that I could afford.”
As one of the wealthiest men around, George Soros could afford to indulge them a whole lot. And by becoming his own god, Soros could escape his shame and suppress his sense of inferiority. Gods have no shame, no guilt and no morality. But George wasn’t a god. He was a man hiding from god by playing god. His shameful secret lay in the God and His people whom he had sinned against.
The family’s Jewish origins were Soros’ secret shame. Schwartz, a Jewish family, were dead. They had been replaced by the Soros clan. George, who had once had a Bar Mitzvah, had been reborn a Nazi collaborator. And then, after the excitement of the war, he washed up as just another refugee in the UK.
It wasn’t the Holocaust that had traumatized Soros. But the aftermath of being a nobody.
The Holocaust had been the most exciting time in his life. After the war, he became a refugee in England, dependent on the charity of British Jewish organizations funded by the sorts of people he and his father had, not that long ago, been taking to the cleaners. He callously defrauded a Jewish charity meant to help the unfortunate and would go on fuming and bragging about that act decades later.
Over the decades, George Soros became very wealthy and very hollow. “I have lived with a double personality all my life,” he later wrote. He was neither a Jew nor a Nazi. He belonged to no nation and no religion. He had made a fortune, but his existence had no purpose except his delusions of grandeur.
Once upon a time, Soros had been convinced that he would be “some kind of god or an economic reformer like Keynes, or, even better, like Einstein.” But outside the financial world, he was a mediocrity.
George Soros dashed off 15 books and endless scribbled thoughts. He has tried to develop a philosophical system. And all of it is so trite that not even his political allies bother to care. His inferiority is real. He’s never had a single thought outside finance that anyone would care about without being paid for it. His only skill is cold-blooded financial manipulation bolstered by a vast informational network.
His only way to overcome his inferiority complex and validate his convictions of godhood was by using his money to tear apart the countries and the people, including the Jews, he had never felt part of.
“I went to England in 1947 and then to the United States in 1956. But I never quite became an American. I had left Hungary behind, and my Jewishness did not express itself in a sense of tribal loyalty that would have led me to support Israel,” he would later write. He married a second time, but his mother, the “typical Jewish anti-Semite” turned Catholic, hated his second wife for being “too Jewish.”
This marriage would also eventually fall apart.
“Being Jewish was a clear-cut stigma,” Soros recounted. “There was always the desire to transcend it, to escape it.”
“The assimilationist Jews of Hungary had a deep sense of inferiority and it took me a long time to work through that,” he has said. “This whole interest in universal ideas is a typical means to escape from the particular.”
And he was “escaping the particular” by “espousing this universal concept of open society.”
The universalism of his Open Society Foundation was, like its Marxist forebears, a means of transcending the secret Jewish shame.
“I don’t think that you can ever overcome anti-Semitism if you behave as a tribe,” he declared. “The only way you can overcome it is if you give up the tribalness.”
Soros hates the Schwartzes for his secret shame, the existence of anti-Semitism. If there were no more Jews, there would be no more anti-Semitism. And his secret shame would finally be expunged.
Like his father and mother, Soros tried to overcame the “tribalness” of being Jewish, the shame and inferiority, by loathing those Jews who, unlike him and his parents, remained Jewish, the ‘Schwartzes’ who didn’t become ‘Soroses’, the Jews who stood there and watched their property being confiscated by his “kind-hearted” Nazi collaborators, and worst of all, those who became ‘Samsons’ and fought back.
George Soros hates the Jews of Israel who became neither collaborators nor victims, but fought and won, above all else. The existence of Israel is a shameful reminder of his treachery and cowardice.
“Attitudes toward Israel are influenced by Israel’s policies, and attitudes toward the Jewish community are influenced by the pro-Israel lobby’s success in suppressing divergent views,” he has claimed.
He blamed the “resurgence of anti-Semitism in Europe” on Israel and insisted that, “If we change that direction, then anti-Semitism also will diminish.”
In Soros’ twisted mind, Jews are to blame for anti-Semitism.
Soros does not want to be Jewish. He is deeply ashamed of his Jewish roots. He blames Jews for anti-Semitism. And while he avoids Jewish events and organizations, occasionally he makes an exception.
A Hungarian Jewish cultural event with Hungarian dancers, musicians, and traditional foods, lured Soros out to present an award to a writer. Instead, Soros was booed for a rant in which he compared Israelis to the Nazis in front of an audience of Holocaust survivors.
“I heard what happened. If I had been there,” Elie Wiesel later said. “I would have walked out.”
While Soros compared Israel to the Nazis, he has defended Islamic terrorists who murder Jews.
“America and Israel must open the door to Hamas,” Soros urged in a Financial Times editorial. “Neither Hamas nor Hezbollah can be treated merely as targets in the war on terror because both have deep roots in their societies,” he argued in another editorial. “AIPAC must bear its share of responsibility for aiding and abetting policies such as Israel’s heavy-handed response to Hezbollah last summer and its insistence on treating Hamas only as a terrorist organization,” he ranted in a rambling essay.
The media has falsely claimed that criticism of George Soros is an anti-Semitic trope. And yet Soros has defended the use of anti-Semitic tropes. “The fact that constructive critics of Israel say things that, when taken out of context or paraphrased in provocative ways, can be made to sound similar to the comments of anti-Semites does not make them anti-Semitic,” he had insisted.
After defending anti-Semitic tropes aimed against Israel, Soros is playing the victim.
George Soros is a sponsor of numerous groups who say things in “provocative ways”. He’s the godfather of the anti-Israel lobby in America, spreading his money across the spectrum from NIAC to J Street, funding conventional anti-Israel BDS groups and providing stealth money to trojan horse organizations like J Street that are meant to co-opt American Jews into undermining the Jewish State.
The beneficiaries of Soros cash have included Al-Haq, an anti-Israel group whose executive director has been described as a senior leader in the PFLP terrorist organization.
To transcend the secret shame of his Jewish origins, the world’s wealthiest anti-Semite has funded a widespread war against the Jews. Only in a world with no Jews, can Soros finally believe he is god.
“It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out,” the billionaire once quipped.
Instead of curing Soros, therapy made him a megalomaniac, escaping his shame by becoming a god.
But, as the Austrian painter who also decided he was god realized, that requires getting rid of the Jews.
The Soros final solution to anti-Semitism is the familiar Marxist formula of getting rid of anti-Semitism by getting rid of the Jews. When there are no more Jews, then Soros will be cured of his secret shame.
All it will take is another Holocaust.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
PM reportedly seeking low profile for move to avoid trial on graft charges, out of concern it could impact election campaign, be rejected by Knesset or overturned by High Court
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was expected Wednesday to ask the Knesset to grant him immunity from prosecution in the three corruption cases against him, as the clock counted down toward a midnight deadline for him to seek the protection.
Netanyahu has described his right to immunity as “a cornerstone of democracy.”
However, rather than make a public announcement at a press conference, as is Netanyahu’s preferred style for key developments, and was apparently his intention at the beginning of the week, he is seeking to keep a low profile and will likely reveal his request in a social media post, Channel 12 news reported.
Netanyahu and his aides are eager to remove the topic from the public agenda as quickly as possible, the report said.
The prime minister has told close associates he is concerned that making the request for immunity, which must be formally delivered to Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein, could impact his campaign for the coming March 2 elections, the Kan public broadcaster reported Tuesday. In addition, Netanyahu is worried that the Knesset may vote against granting him immunity or that, even if lawmakers approve it, the High Court of Justice could intervene and overturn it.
A request from the Knesset for immunity is seen as unpopular among voters, even among many of the prime minister’s supporters. A poll published Sunday evening by Channel 12 news found that 51 percent of Israelis oppose such a move, while only 33% support it.
Netanyahu must announce whether he wants to seek immunity by midnight or automatically forfeit his right to do so. Though the premier is far from guaranteed to get a Knesset majority to support an immunity bid, merely asking for it will likely delay any potential trial by months.
Channel 13 television news reported Monday that Netanyahu has already formulated his request and informed Edelstein of his intention to submit it.
The unsourced television report said that Netanyahu wrote in the letter that he would be willing to face criminal prosecution, but only after he left political life.
He reportedly argued that trying him now would compromise the will of the electorate and harm the Knesset, since many of the witnesses in the trial are current lawmakers; that it would discriminate against him, since indictments haven’t been filed against other politicians; and that the charges were announced in “bad faith,” since Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit made his decision too soon after the pre-indictment hearing, and the process was marred by numerous leaks to the press.
Edelstein’s office immediately rejected the report, with a spokesperson telling The Times of Israel: “No request has been made.”
On Monday, Netanyahu’s staff invited the media to a live statement to the press for 8 p.m., only to cancel it just half an hour later. Netanyahu was believed to have planned to formally announce he would be seeking immunity.
It was not immediately clear why Netanyahu canceled the announcement, which came shortly before hundreds of his supporters gathered Monday evening at Habima Square in Tel Aviv to protest against the criminal cases and support his immunity bid.
Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit at a press conference at the Justice Ministry in Jerusalem announcing his decision to indict Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for bribery, fraud and breach of trust, November 21, 2019. (Hadas Parush/Flash90)
Netanyahu has long evaded questions on whether he will seek to avoid criminal charges through immunity. But in a Channel 12 interview days before the April elections, he clearly stated he would not make any move to shield himself from prosecution if charges were announced.
His request must by weighed by the Knesset House Committee before it can be voted upon by the plenum, but due to the lack of a functioning legislature amid an ongoing political deadlock, and with new elections set, the Knesset will likely only be able to review and decide on his request after a coalition is formed — if it is formed — following the March 2 vote.
Mandelblit in November announced his intention to indict the prime minister in three corruption cases. Netanyahu is charged with fraud and breach of trust in all three cases, as well as bribery in one of them. He denies wrongdoing and has accused police and state prosecutors of an “attempted coup” against him. Mandelblit formally presented the charges to Speaker Edelstein 30 days ago, starting a one month-countdown for Netanyahu to request immunity.
In a related development, the High Court of Justice on Tuesday morning held a preliminary hearing on whether a lawmaker facing criminal indictment can be tapped to form a coalition. Ruling against the possibility of tasking an indicted lawmaker with forming a government would further complicate Netanyahu’s position. The court indicated its wariness on making such a fateful ruling during the election period and after concluding the session said that a decision would be handed down at a later date.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
4)Herein, our learned friend wraps up his observations for 2019 with a bang.
4)Herein, our learned friend wraps up his observations for 2019 with a bang.
Trump’s ‘Failures’
The Left, far better than the NeverTrump Right, grasped that Trump is succeeding, and that it has little traction in demanding economic, energy, immigration, trade, and regulatory alternatives.
December 29th, 2019 emphasis added
It is popular on the NeverTrump Right and everyone on the Left to claim that President Trump has “failed” as we head into an election year. But his supposed failures are instructive.
Take the wall. True, Trump certainly in the last three years has not come close to building an envisioned initial phase of 1,000 miles or so of border fencing to stop the easiest access to the United States, much less made Mexico pay for it. Yet even his critics concede he relentlessly tried—and are fearful he will soon succeed.
There are some considerations to keep in mind. In some sense, we have had no wall at all, given that previous chain-link and thrown-up steel barriers were hardly impediments, at least in critical free-passage zones. Trump is addressing this. A recent Economist article lamented the fact that Trump is, in fact, slowly building a wall and replacing previous makeshift barriers in a manner that supposedly will have negative results—as defined by proponents of open borders—and “irrevocably change America’s south-western border.”
To move toward what the Economist believes is an existential redefinition of the border, the president has gone to court to fight constant lawsuits, scraped together almost $10 billion from previous allocations, as well as siphoning and redirecting funds from various agencies, shutting down the government from December 22, 2018 through January 25, and prompted a near crisis with the Mexican government—and yet so far built only 66 miles of replacement walling and about nine miles of new barriers.
Trump’s critics would argue his temperament needlessly caused such gridlock and stasis. His supporters would reply that no other leader would have fought on so many fronts to build a wall on the southern border—a program that is anathema to the entire Left and most of the libertarian Right.
After all that fighting, the money and the momentum are turning in Trump’s favor, as border crossings have dived over the last six months. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection predicts that by the end of 2020 there will be 450 miles of new walling and another 60 miles started. The Left is beginning to worry that its intersectional doctrines cannot address increased job opportunities for entry-level African American workers when deportations of illegal aliens proceed.
Again, the point is that after three years of mockery insisting Trump has not build his wall, he nonetheless has attempted almost every imaginable method to do it. And now the invective over the last few months has begun to alter. If Trump between 2017-19 was mocked as an obsessive Ahab pathetically and in vain chasing his Great White Wall, he now is being redefined as a dangerous xenophobe, whose American version of the Maginot Line may soon become dangerously reified.
The same ambiguity is true of many of Trump’s other “failures.”
The Right Direction on Trade and China
On trade, for much of Trump’s tenure, U.S. trade deficits increased and gyrated, in a pattern not much different from the latter years of the Obama administration. So far, Trump has been widely pilloried as a reckless protectionist, a mercantile Quixote jousting at Chinese windmills, without any idea of sophisticated trade theory and hopeless naïve in his effort to confront the Chinese colossus by 19th-century tariff policies and Napoleonic Continentalism.
But again, recently it appears things may be changing, if only incrementally. The September trade deficit was $52 billion, and in October, $47 billion, the lowest in 17 months. That’s still far too high, but moving in the right direction without prompting the supposedly inevitable recession.
So, the recent reduction cannot all be attributed to recessionary pressures that in the past have ossified trade in general. Rather the trade deficit decline occurs at a time when the United States has maintained historic low unemployment, a record high stock market, and steady increases in workers’ wages, all during an era of low interest and low inflation.
One can make the argument that trade deficits don’t matter, or that Trump’s “trade war” with China was nihilistic. But one cannot deny that, unlike during the last four administrations, the United States finally has begun questioning all of the conventional-wisdom assumptions of the prior 30-year trade relationship with China—so often characterized by Chinese patent infringement, trademark violations, technology appropriation, dumping, and currency manipulation.
We currently are in the midst of a high-risk, radical recalibration with China, of which trade deficits are central, but not all that is at stake.
The United States is dealing with a number of Chinese-related crises: in Hong Kong, the reeducation-camps, the Orwellian nature of the Chinese government, and the growing imperialism of the Silk Road network abroad. Under Trump, there is at least the chance that China will be forced to curb its predatory trade practices.
In contrast, the prior bipartisan orthodoxy that concessions would win Chinese favor, enrich its population, and soon lead to liberalization of 1.4 billion affluent consumers was unhinged—to the degree it was sincere and not just a hackneyed circumlocution for corporate outsourcing production to China.
What “America First” Looks Like
U.S. energy production continues to rise, given even more federal lands have been opened up to leasing. Frackers and horizontal drillers no longer feel that they are enemies of the people, but are recognized as saviors who provide America with flexibility in foreign policy and inexpensive energy for the middle classes. In 2017, the United States became the largest producer of oil in the world. Gas prices in real dollars remain low.
Abroad, most of the traditional talking points of conservatives have been reified. The U.S. embassy to Israel is now in Jerusalem. The Golan Heights are not going back to the murderous Assad regime.
Hundreds of millions of dollars less in U.S. aid not being rerouted through the United Nations to a corrupt Palestinian authority. The Iran nuclear deal is toast. Iran is not growing its tentacles over Syria and Iraq, but is broke and reeling.
The only irony is that those who used to demand such action blast Trump as a failure for actually turning their parlor talk into reality.
Was Reagan a failure in 1983 and early 1984, as he sought to liberate the economy and break inflation—as the economy went into a tailspin? Or was he savior by election time 1984 as the economy was growing over 7 percent per year?
For better or worse, we are now fundamentally recalibrating the United States—not just redressing the prior Obama transformation, but the policies of past Republican administrations as well. And no one quite knows where it will end, given that almost all our experts who swore in January 2017 that the economy would tank were wrong. They were wrong again with their prediction of a late summer 2019 recession. And they may well be wrong again that confronting China would ensure a global trade cataclysm. Never underestimate how greatly the hatred of Donald Trump can warp the mind of a Ph.D.
Fear of Trump’s Success Underneath It All
So we are watching a great experiment, as all of our past de facto assumptions about regulations, immigration, identity politics, trade, workers’ wages, manufacturing, the Middle East, China, Russia, and overseas interventions are all at once under sometimes chaotic reexamination.
We won’t know to what degree Trump won his battles against a now hard-leftist Democratic Party, the NeverTrump Right, the media, the academic and cultural elite, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, and the Washington deep state until he finishes his first term. In 2020 the people will decide whether such risks were worth taking.
But the idea that Trump has “failed,” when the economy is booming, the United States is energy independent, the border is becoming a border again, China is on notice that the past 30 years of appeasement are over, the military is far stronger, and U.S. foreign policy is being radically recalibrated is absolutely absurd.
Impeachment was never about Trump’s failures, but about fears of his perceived successes.
The Left, far better than the NeverTrump Right, grasped that Trump is succeeding, and that it has little traction in demanding economic, energy, immigration, trade, and regulatory alternatives. Its lunatic multi-trillion-dollar proposals ensure that it cannot attack Trump on the deficit where he is weakest.
As a result, the Left rightly concluded that its only hope to save the progressive agenda is to destroy Trump before the people can vote on his agenda, which they rightly fear is succeeding.
4a)2019 will go down as one of the greatest bull markets and wealth creation years in history. It was the best for both bonds and stocks in 20 years, with equities far surpassing fixed income gains. There was a huge lost opportunity cost to be in bonds and not equities. The S&P is up 28%. That is terrific performance. Hopefully you were in all US equities and did very well, and not in annuities or similar bad investments. In my view, nothing has changed for 2020 to also be good for 100% US equities, although not likely nearly as good. Earnings should beat forecasts next year, and that will likely lead to some multiple expansion as the recession fears dissipate and cap ex spending grows again. It is possible that EU stocks, and even emerging markets may show good recovery, but they have more risk than I think they are worth. The risk reward trade off seems not worth it to me, but I may be wrong next year. If there is some black swan event that causes Trump to look like he will lose, then all this changes for the negative. As I always suggest, listen to whoever you wish, but make your own decisions on how to invest based on your own gut feel after weighing all the input. Bonds did very well in 2019 because the Fed lowered rates 3 times, and there was a lot of foolish talk of recession driving up demand for bonds, but that is highly unlikely in 2020, and as the economy continues to expand, Treasuries are more likely to rise in yield and fall in price. Monetary and fiscal stimulus is now huge, and inflation, oil prices, and interest rates is likely to remain low, all of which are good for equities.
4a)2019 will go down as one of the greatest bull markets and wealth creation years in history. It was the best for both bonds and stocks in 20 years, with equities far surpassing fixed income gains. There was a huge lost opportunity cost to be in bonds and not equities. The S&P is up 28%. That is terrific performance. Hopefully you were in all US equities and did very well, and not in annuities or similar bad investments. In my view, nothing has changed for 2020 to also be good for 100% US equities, although not likely nearly as good. Earnings should beat forecasts next year, and that will likely lead to some multiple expansion as the recession fears dissipate and cap ex spending grows again. It is possible that EU stocks, and even emerging markets may show good recovery, but they have more risk than I think they are worth. The risk reward trade off seems not worth it to me, but I may be wrong next year. If there is some black swan event that causes Trump to look like he will lose, then all this changes for the negative. As I always suggest, listen to whoever you wish, but make your own decisions on how to invest based on your own gut feel after weighing all the input. Bonds did very well in 2019 because the Fed lowered rates 3 times, and there was a lot of foolish talk of recession driving up demand for bonds, but that is highly unlikely in 2020, and as the economy continues to expand, Treasuries are more likely to rise in yield and fall in price. Monetary and fiscal stimulus is now huge, and inflation, oil prices, and interest rates is likely to remain low, all of which are good for equities.
It is important to understand that analysts are reluctant to bad mouth a company, or they get left out of meetings and calls with management. If the analyst works for an investment bank, the bankers want the client to give them business, so the analyst is cautioned not to be negative. The CFO manipulates the analysts to forecast a little below what the CFO believes the earnings will really be so when released it appears as an earnings beat. The whole process is a game. That is why I have never put a lot of credibility on analyst reports. Call me a cynic, but I base this on being around the business for 55 years, and talking to analysts off the record. In addition, when quarter end comes, the CFO has some leeway as to how he reports earnings.
The housing market is now booming with low rates, and should be an extra boost to the economy. Millennials are now getting married and making babies. Good for the economy. A lot of new homes means a lot of things get bought for that home from furniture, to supplies, to garden items, and tools. Once Boeing gets the 727 back in the air, probably in spring, that is another little boost to industrial production, not just at Boeing, but for hundreds of other companies in their supply chain. It will also be a boost for stocks due to the impact of Boeing on the Dow. Online retail sales are up 18%, which is now 14.6% of all sales. Savings are also up to 7.9% which is great news. It means households are being prudent on spending and debt, and can much more easily handle their debt which is now at near record low rates just as wages rise. There is no chance of another bubble of consumer debt like in 2008. Corporate debt is where the risk lies. All of this is further indication of higher wages, more consumer spending, and more economic growth into 2020. It is possible that 2020 will be a much better year for GDP growth than is now being forecast. Consumers feel good, and that makes a big difference.
China reports a material rise in corporate borrowing last quarter at the same time economic reports show it is the weakest quarter in 2019 and profits are getting squeezed. . It is likely they are borrowing to keep going and trying to grow. Cash flow is deteriorating at a record rate. Profits are declining. 40% of the loans are from the unregulated shadow loan market. Not much discipline there. While there seems to still be good consumer buying, there is a slowdown in China which is possibly going to get worse as more companies move out regardless of the trade deal. The debt binge is going to catch up with the Chinese economy one of these days, Defaults are rising to over 4% and that is very likely hiding the truth. Payables are showing lateness at very high levels. Cash flow is declining at many businesses and at the same time debt is rising. Not a good formula. Long term China has a real problem.
There has been a decline in miles driven in cars in the US. That suggests more people shop and work online, and more are using mass transit, or walking in urban areas. If you want to be developing a successful residential project, being close to mass transit is a sure winner going forward. It also is good for cleaner air.
Uber loses money on every ride, drivers want more comp, regulators are making it more costly, and competition is getting very rough, especially in Asia. I don’t understand how Uber survives. There is no place I can see how they cut costs enough, and their costs are likely going up. Another hyped stock with a business plan that makes no sense. They are just a taxi service with increasing costs and declining revenue per ride in many markets. Could be a great short, but not in the short run. Risky stock either way.
If you think what we are experiencing now with the far left Dems is unique to now, you forgot history. William Jennings Bryan ran against McKinley in 1896 on a platform Bernie and Warren would love. He was the Democratic Party nominee railing against the robber barons Carnegie, Rockefeller, and JP Morgan, and against bankers and the gold standard. It was the wealthy easterners vs the populists. Social media and TV has changed everything, but the underlying politics of the far left is not new. Bryan lost.
I don’t know what Pelosi is planning or thinking, but I assume the Dems think they can force McConnell to call the witnesses the Dems could not get to testify. That is not happening. An argument is being made that if she does not forward the papers, then he is not impeached since it is akin to a prosecutor never filing charges with the court meaning you are not officially indicted. Whatever game she is playing is doing real harm to the country as it causes foreign countries to be confused as to what they are dealing with. It also consumes huge time in the media, so real stories bet buried, meaning the public does not get well informed. The White House has to devote huge time and effort to deal with this instead of real issues. There is nothing good about what she is doing. And now the Dems want to talk about new charges!!! They know this current effort failed so they want to keep at it until the election, I assume, hoping something will stick, but trying anything to stop Trump from being reelected. Is this any better than whatever the Russians were doing in 2016. To me it is far worse, and much more dangerous to the election and democratic process. It is very damaging to the country, and exactly what the Founders feared could happen, which was why they tried to define what constitutes impeachment. It is not what the Dems are charging.
It is very informative reading about the late 1700’s and early 1800’s.It highlights why America is special, and why we surpassed Europe. In that period there were constant wars and massive death. France was a disaster after the king was beheaded, and mass beheadings became common. France was also being attacked on all sides by other monarchies fearful of similar uprisings. The level of depravity and mass murder was huge with whole cities and villages laid to waste. France, after the revolution, suffered years of tens of thousands of deaths. WWII with Hitler and Stalin then took mass murder and genocide to levels that were unimaginable. Europe at the end of WWII is a totally different place than the prior centuries. WWII was the final ripping apart of the old history of European monarchies trying through war to dominate each other. Putin and Russia still have not gotten past that era when Russia, led by Catherine The Great, influenced much of what went on in Europe. Putin still seems to think Russia should again be dominant, recreating the days of glory of Catherine. Without America, it is hard to know what would have happened.
The French protests of today are a relatively calm replay of the post revolution period, but it is still imbedded in their culture. The American revolution touched off a period of upheaval against the monarchies that had reigned for hundreds of years in Europe. Populists began to try to copy what we had done. The difference was, America got rid of the monarchy controlling the colonies and formed a constitutional government of laws based on certain rights. None of that existed at the time in Europe. We were blessed with a group of founders who clearly were unique, and who created a nation based on freedom and law of the people. George Washington was much more than the general in the revolution. As president, he kept the struggling new nation on an even keel, and kept us out of war in Louisiana on the side of the French, which could have been disastrous. He kept Jefferson and Hamilton from tearing apart the Congress over the French revolution. In Europe they never really had similar people to draw a similar constitution, as there was an ongoing mix of royalists, lords of the manor, and those seeking some level of democracy, and many in between. All sorts of centuries of vested interests kept the continent in turmoil, and wars until 1945. Almost 200 years. Maybe this explains why Europe today is generally pacifist.
Americans think we were the only place there were slaves, but there were black slaves in Europe, and a massive serf population who were treated like slaves. In fact, slavery goes back to Roman times. In Europe in the 1700’s, there were too many entrenched parties and political beliefs. They had existing government officials, monarchs with a powerful position, and parliaments of varying sorts, and social/political organizations, an aristocracy class, whereas in America, we sort of started with a clean slate. There was no imbedded national culture, and no long embedded royalty or dictatorship. We had 13 colonies with varying interests, but no national body that had existed in one form, or another, for centuries. We were fighting off everything Europe stood for. We also had 3000 miles of contiguous land which offered huge opportunities. That was not available in Europe. That made all the difference. Even then, it took several years for the Americans to finally agree a constitution, but then followed by a civil war clash of cultures to finally settle things. We are exceptional, regardless of what Obama thought. He obviously never studied history. These parts of history are why it is so important to bring history back to campus. They give so much more context to current events.
2020 will prove to be a very interesting and chaotic year with impeachment and the election. In the end Trump will win, the stock market will go up, and the economy will not go into recession. Iran and N Korea will be huge issues, and the chance of real war exists. The Dems will continue to disrupt the nation with more outrageous and desperate actions in the House, the press will continue to attack Trump, and in the late spring Durham will lay out what was the worst political scandal in US history. Through it all, keep your head straight, don’t get caught up in the press claiming whatever is a new bombshell, and keep your eye on the ball of investing intelligently. Ginsberg is unlikely to survive on the ability to be on the court, and will create a giant battle for the seat on the court that will make Kavanaugh look like kindergarten. Most important, exercise and eat right and stay healthy. The rest is irrelevant if your health goes.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The housing market is now booming with low rates, and should be an extra boost to the economy. Millennials are now getting married and making babies. Good for the economy. A lot of new homes means a lot of things get bought for that home from furniture, to supplies, to garden items, and tools. Once Boeing gets the 727 back in the air, probably in spring, that is another little boost to industrial production, not just at Boeing, but for hundreds of other companies in their supply chain. It will also be a boost for stocks due to the impact of Boeing on the Dow. Online retail sales are up 18%, which is now 14.6% of all sales. Savings are also up to 7.9% which is great news. It means households are being prudent on spending and debt, and can much more easily handle their debt which is now at near record low rates just as wages rise. There is no chance of another bubble of consumer debt like in 2008. Corporate debt is where the risk lies. All of this is further indication of higher wages, more consumer spending, and more economic growth into 2020. It is possible that 2020 will be a much better year for GDP growth than is now being forecast. Consumers feel good, and that makes a big difference.
China reports a material rise in corporate borrowing last quarter at the same time economic reports show it is the weakest quarter in 2019 and profits are getting squeezed. . It is likely they are borrowing to keep going and trying to grow. Cash flow is deteriorating at a record rate. Profits are declining. 40% of the loans are from the unregulated shadow loan market. Not much discipline there. While there seems to still be good consumer buying, there is a slowdown in China which is possibly going to get worse as more companies move out regardless of the trade deal. The debt binge is going to catch up with the Chinese economy one of these days, Defaults are rising to over 4% and that is very likely hiding the truth. Payables are showing lateness at very high levels. Cash flow is declining at many businesses and at the same time debt is rising. Not a good formula. Long term China has a real problem.
There has been a decline in miles driven in cars in the US. That suggests more people shop and work online, and more are using mass transit, or walking in urban areas. If you want to be developing a successful residential project, being close to mass transit is a sure winner going forward. It also is good for cleaner air.
Uber loses money on every ride, drivers want more comp, regulators are making it more costly, and competition is getting very rough, especially in Asia. I don’t understand how Uber survives. There is no place I can see how they cut costs enough, and their costs are likely going up. Another hyped stock with a business plan that makes no sense. They are just a taxi service with increasing costs and declining revenue per ride in many markets. Could be a great short, but not in the short run. Risky stock either way.
If you think what we are experiencing now with the far left Dems is unique to now, you forgot history. William Jennings Bryan ran against McKinley in 1896 on a platform Bernie and Warren would love. He was the Democratic Party nominee railing against the robber barons Carnegie, Rockefeller, and JP Morgan, and against bankers and the gold standard. It was the wealthy easterners vs the populists. Social media and TV has changed everything, but the underlying politics of the far left is not new. Bryan lost.
I don’t know what Pelosi is planning or thinking, but I assume the Dems think they can force McConnell to call the witnesses the Dems could not get to testify. That is not happening. An argument is being made that if she does not forward the papers, then he is not impeached since it is akin to a prosecutor never filing charges with the court meaning you are not officially indicted. Whatever game she is playing is doing real harm to the country as it causes foreign countries to be confused as to what they are dealing with. It also consumes huge time in the media, so real stories bet buried, meaning the public does not get well informed. The White House has to devote huge time and effort to deal with this instead of real issues. There is nothing good about what she is doing. And now the Dems want to talk about new charges!!! They know this current effort failed so they want to keep at it until the election, I assume, hoping something will stick, but trying anything to stop Trump from being reelected. Is this any better than whatever the Russians were doing in 2016. To me it is far worse, and much more dangerous to the election and democratic process. It is very damaging to the country, and exactly what the Founders feared could happen, which was why they tried to define what constitutes impeachment. It is not what the Dems are charging.
It is very informative reading about the late 1700’s and early 1800’s.It highlights why America is special, and why we surpassed Europe. In that period there were constant wars and massive death. France was a disaster after the king was beheaded, and mass beheadings became common. France was also being attacked on all sides by other monarchies fearful of similar uprisings. The level of depravity and mass murder was huge with whole cities and villages laid to waste. France, after the revolution, suffered years of tens of thousands of deaths. WWII with Hitler and Stalin then took mass murder and genocide to levels that were unimaginable. Europe at the end of WWII is a totally different place than the prior centuries. WWII was the final ripping apart of the old history of European monarchies trying through war to dominate each other. Putin and Russia still have not gotten past that era when Russia, led by Catherine The Great, influenced much of what went on in Europe. Putin still seems to think Russia should again be dominant, recreating the days of glory of Catherine. Without America, it is hard to know what would have happened.
The French protests of today are a relatively calm replay of the post revolution period, but it is still imbedded in their culture. The American revolution touched off a period of upheaval against the monarchies that had reigned for hundreds of years in Europe. Populists began to try to copy what we had done. The difference was, America got rid of the monarchy controlling the colonies and formed a constitutional government of laws based on certain rights. None of that existed at the time in Europe. We were blessed with a group of founders who clearly were unique, and who created a nation based on freedom and law of the people. George Washington was much more than the general in the revolution. As president, he kept the struggling new nation on an even keel, and kept us out of war in Louisiana on the side of the French, which could have been disastrous. He kept Jefferson and Hamilton from tearing apart the Congress over the French revolution. In Europe they never really had similar people to draw a similar constitution, as there was an ongoing mix of royalists, lords of the manor, and those seeking some level of democracy, and many in between. All sorts of centuries of vested interests kept the continent in turmoil, and wars until 1945. Almost 200 years. Maybe this explains why Europe today is generally pacifist.
Americans think we were the only place there were slaves, but there were black slaves in Europe, and a massive serf population who were treated like slaves. In fact, slavery goes back to Roman times. In Europe in the 1700’s, there were too many entrenched parties and political beliefs. They had existing government officials, monarchs with a powerful position, and parliaments of varying sorts, and social/political organizations, an aristocracy class, whereas in America, we sort of started with a clean slate. There was no imbedded national culture, and no long embedded royalty or dictatorship. We had 13 colonies with varying interests, but no national body that had existed in one form, or another, for centuries. We were fighting off everything Europe stood for. We also had 3000 miles of contiguous land which offered huge opportunities. That was not available in Europe. That made all the difference. Even then, it took several years for the Americans to finally agree a constitution, but then followed by a civil war clash of cultures to finally settle things. We are exceptional, regardless of what Obama thought. He obviously never studied history. These parts of history are why it is so important to bring history back to campus. They give so much more context to current events.
2020 will prove to be a very interesting and chaotic year with impeachment and the election. In the end Trump will win, the stock market will go up, and the economy will not go into recession. Iran and N Korea will be huge issues, and the chance of real war exists. The Dems will continue to disrupt the nation with more outrageous and desperate actions in the House, the press will continue to attack Trump, and in the late spring Durham will lay out what was the worst political scandal in US history. Through it all, keep your head straight, don’t get caught up in the press claiming whatever is a new bombshell, and keep your eye on the ball of investing intelligently. Ginsberg is unlikely to survive on the ability to be on the court, and will create a giant battle for the seat on the court that will make Kavanaugh look like kindergarten. Most important, exercise and eat right and stay healthy. The rest is irrelevant if your health goes.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
