Two more Helsinki comments. (See 1 and 1a below.)
I did not hear all of Trump's 180 degree mia culpa today but I do believe the following:
a) Trump is clear about his concern Merkel has attached herself to Russian energy which undercuts NATO and brings in billions to Russia while she takes advantage of the U.S.
b) Trump is very supportive of NATO but correctly believes they need more funding from our so called allies and after over 30 years it needs some strategic and tactical rethinking.
c) Trump is no fool and understands Russia interfered with our election but we do the same and though, he believes in our intelligence conclusions but not some of the senior members who were Obama holdovers, actually one lied to Congress and favored Hillary because they did not want Trump and thus, this morphs into less respect for our intelligence community.
d) Trump often says the wrong things but eventually does what needs to be done so he undercuts his effectiveness . He over speaks, is overly sensitive, talks without always thinking of repercussions and nothing his does will ever find favor with the likes of Up Chuck, Pelosi etc. and all of the other assorted Trump haters and mass media bias.
That does not mean he can continue with abandon but eventually the mass media and Trump detractors are being seen for what they are and thus, are increasingly less effective.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Thoughts from a retired oil expert, dear friend and fellow memo reader. Long but very informative. (See 2 below.)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I listened to a very interesting interview of Bryon York. He was explaining his view of Trump's reaction to Mueller's investigation. York says Mueller has a two part investigation:
a) was their Russian involvement in our election and the answer is yes.
b) was their collusion on the part of Trump?
The problem Trump has with Mueller York believes is, Trump runs the two together and since he believes there was no collusion he attacks Mueller because it has given Trump haters ammunition that sits like an albatross on what he wishes to accomplishment. York said a lot more but this is the essence of what he concludes.
And More commentary re Mueller investigation. (See 2a below.)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
China is hurting and have been turning to the E.U. (See 3 below.)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Dr Frank Parker was my great professor of Corporate Finance when I was at Wharton. He introduced me to Hayek and I have been a devotee of this pragmatic economist for over 60 years.
From time to time others write about what Hayek might say regarding today's problems. Reagan was guided by Hayek's thinking and advice. This article is a MUST READ! (See 4 below.)
In essence Hayek suggests correct/reliable information is critical in making a decision and it is easier to get that and faster from the local level. What happens is solutions gravitate to those who feel they need to be in the decision process so government becomes amoebic as it expands and the decline in useful information begins it's downward direction. Over time the individual theoretically being served by government is out of the loop/equation. Consequently, Socialism takes over and free market solutions are evaded. This is why he wrote his seminal book: "The Road To Serfdom." and why Capitalism has been so successful. Perfect? Of course not, just better because power remains local and people remain part of the process and see their inputs produce results akin to their wishes. More distant/bigger government generally fails and does not serve the interests of the distant individual over time but rather accommodates those who want to be in the in and who seek power to bring about their own philosophical changes.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Dick
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1) The Trump First Doctrine
Putin respects strength but Trump showed weakness.
Donald Trump left for Europe a week ago with his reputation enhanced by a strong Supreme Court nomination. He returned Monday with that reputation diminished after a tumultuous week of indulging what amounts to the Trump First Doctrine.
Mr. Trump marched through Europe with more swagger than strategy. His diplomacy is personal, rooted in instinct and impulse, and he treats other leaders above all on how much they praise Donald J. Trump. He says what pops into his head to shock but then disavows it if there’s a backlash. He criticizes institutions and policies to grab headlines but then claims victory no matter the outcome.
The world hasn’t seen a U.S. President like this in modern times, and as ever in Trump World everyone else will have to adapt. Let’s navigate between the critics who predict the end of world order and the cheerleaders who see only genius, and try to offer a realistic assessment of the fallout from a troubling week.
• NATO. The result here seems better than many feared. Mr. Trump bullied the allies with rhetoric and insulted Germany by claiming it is “totally controlled” by Russia. But his charges about inadequate military spending and Russia’s gas pipeline had the advantage of being true, as most leaders acknowledged.
The 23-page communique that Mr. Trump endorsed is a solid document that improves NATO’s capabilities to deter and resist a threat from Russia. Mr. Trump’s last-minute demand that countries raise military spending to 4% of GDP was weird, but he is right that more countries are likely to meet the 2% target.
One risk is that Mr. Trump’s constant criticism of NATO will undermine public support for it in the U.S.—and, more dangerously, undermine the alliance’s deterrence against Russia. If Vladimir Putin concludes Mr. Trump isn’t willing to protect the Baltic states, he may pull another Crimea.
• The Brits. Mr. Trump turned a friendly visit into a fiasco by criticizing Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit strategy in an interview with the Sun newspaper. He backtracked a day later, calling his own comments on tape “fake news,” and Mrs. May was gracious.
But Mr. Trump should encourage a U.S.-British post-Brexit trade deal both in the U.S. interest and to help Britain negotiate the most favorable Brexit terms from the European Union. Other leaders will conclude from his rude treatment of Mrs. May that working with Mr. Trump is more perilous than fighting him.
• The EU. In contrast to NATO, Mr. Trump does seem to want to undermine the European compact. He called it a “foe” on trade, which will make negotiating a better trade deal even less likely. He seems determined to impose a 20% or higher tariff on European autos to strike at Germany, which would also hit France and others.
The U.S. isn’t part of the EU, but American Presidents have found it useful as an ally to leverage sanctions against, say, Russia or Iran. Mr. Trump is stoking European resentments that will bite back sooner or later when he wants Europe’s help.
• Russia. Details from the private Trump-Putin talks in Helsinki will spill out in coming days, but Monday’s joint press conference was a personal and national embarrassment. On stage with the dictator whose election meddling has done so much harm to his Presidency, Mr. Trump couldn’t even bring himself to say he believed his own intelligence advisers like Dan Coats over the Russian strongman.
“I have—I have confidence in both parties,” Mr. Trump said. “So I have great confidence in my intelligence people, but I will tell you that President Putin was extremely strong and powerful in his denial today.” Denials from liars usually are strong and powerful.
The charitable explanation for this kowtow to the Kremlin is that Mr. Trump can’t get past his fury that critics claim his election was tainted by Russian interference. And so he couldn’t resist, in front of the world, going off on a solipsistic ramble about “ Hillary Clinton’s emails” and Democratic “servers.” He can’t seem to figure out that the more he indulges his ego in this fashion, and the more he seems to indulge Mr. Putin, the more ammunition he gives to his opponents.
For a rare moment in his Presidency, Mr. Trump also projected weakness. He was the one on stage beseeching Mr. Putin for a better relationship, while the Russian played it cool and matter of fact. Mr. Trump touted their personal rapport, saying the bilateral “relationship has never been worse than it is now. However, that changed as of about four hours ago. I really believe that.” In four hours?
Mr. Putin focused on his agenda of consolidating Russian strategic gains in Syria, Ukraine and arms control, and suggesting that the American might help. Mr. Trump even seemed to soften his stance against Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany.
By going soft on Mr. Putin, Mr. Trump will paradoxically find it even harder to make deals with the Russian. Republicans and Democrats will unite in Congress, as they should, to limit his diplomatic running room. Mr. Trump may decide to court Mr. Putin anyway, like Barack Obama did Iran’s mullahs, but political isolation concerning a foreign adversary is a weak and dangerous place to be.
1a) Is Helsinki Trump’s Iran Deal?
The president may be indulging Russia as his predecessor did the Islamic Republic.
Rarely has an American president been as isolated on foreign policy as President Trump is today. The Senate voted 97-2 to support the North Atlantic Treaty Organization last week, even as Mr. Trump belittled NATO and its principal members. Meanwhile, both the Justice Department and the director of national intelligence are sounding the alarm about the Russian leader Mr. Trump appears to be trying to recruit as an American ally. The president’s policy of reconciliation with Russia at the expense of NATO has even less support in Washington than President Obama’s policy of breaking with Middle East allies to attempt a reconciliation with Iran.
Among the president’s remarkable assumptions about Vladimir Putin’s Russia: that it can be induced to cooperate with the U.S. on a wide range of security issues, including Syria and Iran; and that it can replace Germany as America’s principal Eurasian partner—or, if not, the U.S. can use the threat of a Russian alliance to extract better terms from Germany and the European Union. The president is confident that he possesses the bargaining ability and diplomatic talent to manage the complex negotiations involved.
Why does Mr. Trump seem so determined to defy his advisers and play a Russia card that costs him dearly in Washington and nourishes the suspicions of the investigators probing his Russia connections? His fiercest critics are sure they know the answer: Vladimir Putin has “compromised” the president, leaving him no choice but to appease the Russian dictator.
Special counsel Robert Mueller will be in a better position to assess that question than the journalists who speculate about it wildly. Meanwhile, after Mr. Trump’s meeting with Mr. Putin in Helsinki, it’s worth remembering that his Russia policy is less of an outlier than some of his critics assume. Both George W. Bush and Barack Obama also naively overestimated their ability to charm Mr. Putin.
Mr. Obama’s policy in particular bore similarities to Mr. Trump’s. Both men held Washington’s foreign-policy establishment (“the blob” or “the deep state”) in contempt. Both came to the job with a belief that their unique life stories and personal qualities would enable them to transform global politics in a historic way. Both were willing to accept a Russian presence in Syria and to overlook Russian complicity in Bashar Assad’s atrocities. Long after the 2009 “reset” failed, Mr. Obama was willing to flout domestic public opinion to make concessions to Russia. As he whispered to Russia’s then-President Dmitry Medvedev in 2012: “This is my last election. . . . After my election I have more flexibility,” on issues like missile defense.
While the press celebrated rather than pilloried him for it, Mr. Obama also made overtures to a U.S. adversary (Iran) over the heads of longtime allies (Israel and the Gulf states). Mr. Trump’s Russia overtures over Germany’s head are just as ill-considered.
What differentiates Mr. Trump from Mr. Obama most sharply is his approach to Europe. Mr. Obama saw Europe as a rich and generally well-intentioned part of the world that punches well below its weight in world affairs. Mr. Trump’s view has been profoundly influenced by hard-core Brexiteers like Nigel Farage and anti-Islamist campaigners who see in the EU a mix of fecklessness in defending Western values and ruthlessness in promoting its own bureaucratic power.
Similarly, both Mr. Trump and the Brexiteers see the EU as a screen for German domination of the Continent. And Mr. Trump’s concern that “excessive” levels of migrants from Islamic countries threaten the social cohesion of Western societies tallies with the views of politicians in countries across Europe who resent German power and fear the imposition of post-Christian, postnationalist values through the EU.
From this perspective, Mr. Putin looks less like a malign force bent on dismantling the cathedral of liberty and more like an unsavory but potentially useful partner. After all, the one indisputable success of the EU is forming a bloc that can collectively resist American pressure on trade. Mr. Trump sees the trade balance as a fundamental inequity in the trans-Atlantic relationship. From this mercantilist perspective, cooperating with Mr. Putin’s anti-EU agenda is appealing to the president.
A fresh start with Russia appears to be as much of an idée fixe for Mr. Trump as outreach to Iran was for his predecessor. Mr. Obama never fully appreciated that the U.S. political system limits the ability of presidents to bring about diplomatic revolutions in the teeth of congressional resistance. It remains to be seen whether and how quickly Mr. Trump will grasp this important truth.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
2)We continue to hear a lot about the yield curve, and the fear that it is
flattening and could become inverted. In the past, inverted yield curves
have generally meant a recession is following. This time may be different,
and the hype about the yield curve might be unfulfilled. The difference now
between the ten year and 30 year is around 10 basis points, depending on the
day. That is essentially flat. The difference is long term rates generally
gets impacted by what the market believes will be inflation longer term, as
that would push up the term premium. The market seems to be saying that
there will be modest inflation long term which keeps the long rate low.
Hopefully that will prove right.
Globalization and the Amazon affect, plus AI keeping costs down, all will
help inflation stay lower than we would have expected in the past, so the 30
year will probably stay low for a while. Wages are the key now, and so far
there seems to be many more people on the sidelines who have decided to look
for a job now that the job market is so strong. On the other hand, there are
no workers left for oil field work, hotels, food service or other low end
dirty jobs. There is a real issue in the oil fields since it takes a lot of
training to do drilling, and there are just no workers left with the
training. It is not just having a few days training. It takes time. Wages
for well qualified rig workers is around $150,000-$200,000, but even that is
not getting the trained guys since there are none left not working. At the
low end, hotel and food service workers can go to a factory or warehouse and
make much more than in a hotel. The hotel industry has a major problem that
it is aware of, but nobody wants to talk about NOI, and they just talk about
Revpar, since that hides the real crisis unfolding with cash flow as the
worker shortage worsens. The next year for hotels cash flow is going to get
ugly in many cases. Either wages go way up, or rooms do not get cleaned and
food service becomes bad. This means guests get angry, and rates and
occupancy suffer eventually. There is no answer for shortages of labor other
than higher wages in hotels, restaurants and similar places. It is unlikely
the flat yield curve will predict a recession this time.
CLO's -collateralized loan obligations, are back. These are similar to the
old CDO's in that they are pieces of loans left after a CMBS offering or in
some cases floaters, or other loans originated outside of the CMBS market.
For the moment, they are real loans fairly well underwritten, but over time
they will morph into lower quality and dicer securities. Happens every
cycle. Along comes the next batch of "smart MBA's" who push the envelope,
and then comes the dicier deals. There are differences from CMBS, but in the
end it is the quality of the underlying loans that matters. Quality will
deteriorate at some point.
Now the UK is in the same bad place as Germany in that the leader is very
weak and might be voted out at any time if the Conservatives can find a
viable candidate. It is just one more reason that the world is undergoing a
vast change from the post war rules of the game to a new generation of
leaders driven by more of a populist approach. Since the war, the world
operated with a certain set of ways of doing things, and diplomatic
niceties. Human rights was a major issue. Stopping the Soviets and now
Russia, and basically the US subsidizing everyone, was the way things were
done. That era is now over. Trump has drawn a line in the sand and voters in
the EU and the US have said it is time for a new approach. Most commentators
and politicians worry we are causing our "allies" to be angry with us.
Reality check- "allies" are only allies so long as they can take advantage
of us. The EU used us to protect them from the Soviets in the cold war, and
to fund their recovery from the war. Unfortunately, once recovery happened
and the cold war ended, the US continued to be the sucker, and to fund the
EU, and to pay for 80% of their military protection. The EU were our allies
so long as we paid them to be. Geopolitics is just like business, a party is
your friend only so long as it is to his economic advantage to be a friend.
If a better offer comes along, your "friend" and ally is off to the better
offer. Countries are no different. They are like people, they act in their
own best interests. So long as the Soviets, and then Russia, presented a
threat, and so long as we were paying the bills, they are our "allies". Now
Trump is saying out loud, the king has no clothes. He is calling on the EU
to share their own defense costs and responsibilities, and to trade with us
on a fair basis, and not on the old basis which advantaged them. He is
correct that the gas pipeline give Putin complete control of the EU, and
especially Germany, now that they closed all of the coal and nuke power
plants, and left themselves at Putin's mercy in the name of climate change.
Merkel correctly figured that so long as the US (Obama) was willing to pay
and be disadvantaged on trade, and on NATO costs, why not take advantage.
Obama was weak, so they took advantage of his ignorance and weakness. In the
end, the EU needs us, now more than before, while political chaos reigns in
the EU and the UK, and as Russia presents a threat. Trump is simply dealing
with reality knowing they need us, and knowing they are our friends only so
long as they need us. It is now the US that has the ultimate economic and
military power in the world, and under the Reagan /Schultz doctrine, when
you are strong, you have the advantage. The EU has no choice- they need the
US much more than the US needs them, and Trump has said it out loud. The EU
is angry because he has called their bluff, and he has the royal flush. The
press and the establishment just do not understand how to play the power
game.
Many say Trump has no strategy. Here it is. He follows the Reagan/Schultz
doctrine- rebuild the military to be overwhelmingly strong, and make it
clear you are willing to use it, and make the economy very strong so you win
the trade fights. Make it so everyone fears and needs us, and make it clear
we are not backing down. They found out this week this is a new world order
and the US is no longer the patsy. From that base you can bend the other
countries to your will if you are willing to be tough, demanding, and take
the time to get the right deal, and walk out unless they bend. I understand
Trump since I have always operated in business from the approach that I want
what I want, trust nobody, and will walk and say no until I get close to
what I want. I have always been willing to bet I can prevail in the end by
hanging tough, even when it was a pure bluff. Nice guys don't win ball
games. In my two major lawsuits it worked. In neither case did I have the
resources to extend the fight, but I was willing to risk it, and bluff, and
make it seem I could go on forever, turning down multiple settlement offers.
In both cases it paid off hugely. In both cases I walked when offered an
attractive deal, just not one good enough. Trump plays the same game. Make
demands, turn the screws, and hold out until the other guy loses or caves,
even if it causes some short term pain. Don't do what is expected, and what
is the norm. It is the same thing he is doing on tariffs. You just have to
be tough, take the pain and criticism, and wait out the other guy. Persevere
in what you really believe in, regardless of the criticism and pressure, and
no matter how ugly it may get. Trump is playing the long game on tariffs,
and is willing to wait until the EU cries uncle, and Canada suffers. The
press and politicians are playing the short game, which is always the losing
hand. After the NATO meeting the EU now knows they can't pressure Trump, and
so the tariffs will get sorted out soon.
Right now Trump is in the driver's seat. May badly needs a deal with the US
on trade, but with her new policy she has boxed herself out of that . The
soft Brexit deal is no deal, and will not survive. May played it all wrong.
It is not what Brexit is about. She wants a middle ground still subject to
EU rules, but Brexit was about ending the ability of Brussels to make any
rules. They may end up with a hard Brexit. They need a tough bastard to
replace May now. Merkel will give on auto tariffs, and then steel quotas,
and then farm products. The auto deal, the most key, is already well along
to getting done, she has already agreed preliminarily to steel quotas, so it
is really only farm products to get done. Then Canada falls into line. NAFTA
will wait until later in the year. Merkel has now agreed to increase spend
on NATO, and today agreed to much more than she intended once she and the
others realized Trump was really willing to really play hardball. Germany
has played us for suckers for decades. Trump is absolutely right that the EU
lived off the US taxpayer, and that game is now over. Even some in the EU
have admitted he is right. Several agree he is right on the pipeline issue.
Today Trump won far more than a much bigger NATO contribution. He won the
war of wills, which was far more important. Now the world really knows the
Obama era is over. The EU fears Trump now, and cannot predict what he may
do, and that gives him all the leverage in the negotiations. Liberals and
the press simply do not understand how this game is played because it is not
how it was done all these decades, but we just need to look at the world
today to see a mess with threats on all sides as a direct result of the past
polices, and ways of doing things. Politeness gets you into a weak place,
and leaves the other guy in control. Just look at Libya, Iran, Russia,
China, and places like Egypt. They are all dictatorships, and the people are
oppressed as badly as ever. Pakistan is now reported to have moved
aggressively against the Taliban and other terror groups in the northwest
due to Trump canceling $1 billion in aid until they do it. So what good was
all the play nice approach for all these years. It left the world a big,
dangerous mess. That is what Obama and years of playing nice got us. By
playing the Reagan policy of, we will outspend you in armaments and drive
you into bankruptcy, Trump leaves adversaries like Iran and N Korea unable
to compete and survive. Putin has the same issue that Gorbachev had. He
cannot afford to compete. It takes time and gets ugly sometimes, but in the
end, being strong is a winning formula. Go read the history of the Reagan
period, and you see the similarities. Reagan was also mocked in the press,
heavily criticized, called dangerous and a warmonger by the establishment,
the state department tried to change his best speeches, and were sometimes
horrified by what he said, but in the end he won big.
The populist anti-immigrant movement in the EU is ending Merkel's rule, and
Brexit will end May, and will push the EU and UK into the much better
cooperation with the US. EU anti-immigration rules, as of now, require
detention in camps, and deportation, and are no softer than Trump. The
fences are going up in Europe, and detention centers are opening. We are
witnessing the end of the post war policies and ways of diplomatic process
as it has been done for decades. All the human rights stuff and democracy
crap has resulted in weakness, and in the end more human rights abuses now
occur all across the world, more refugees, more terrorism, and less peace.
The liberal approach failed miserably. Turmoil is now in Iran, There are no
human rights in the Mideast other than Israel. China has none. North Africa
has none other than Morocco. China did not comply with the rules once it
joined WTO, and once it opened trade, despite that it was the naïve belief
and policy of the west that China would play nice if trade was opened. The
Chinese just played the west for suckers. There is no real democracy in most
places -even in some places in the EU like Hungary and Poland. The old way
has yielded disaster and death, refugees and misery, and no real democracy.
It is why Pompeo said clearly, we are prioritizing the real issues first,
then we will deal with human rights later. We will not try to tell others
how to run their government. The exact same approach as Reagan/ Schultz for
which they were also roundly criticized by the media.
Trump is doing exactly what he was elected to do despite the coastal elites,
many of you, and the establishment being horrified.
2)We continue to hear a lot about the yield curve, and the fear that it is
flattening and could become inverted. In the past, inverted yield curves
have generally meant a recession is following. This time may be different,
and the hype about the yield curve might be unfulfilled. The difference now
between the ten year and 30 year is around 10 basis points, depending on the
day. That is essentially flat. The difference is long term rates generally
gets impacted by what the market believes will be inflation longer term, as
that would push up the term premium. The market seems to be saying that
there will be modest inflation long term which keeps the long rate low.
Hopefully that will prove right.
Globalization and the Amazon affect, plus AI keeping costs down, all will
help inflation stay lower than we would have expected in the past, so the 30
year will probably stay low for a while. Wages are the key now, and so far
there seems to be many more people on the sidelines who have decided to look
for a job now that the job market is so strong. On the other hand, there are
no workers left for oil field work, hotels, food service or other low end
dirty jobs. There is a real issue in the oil fields since it takes a lot of
training to do drilling, and there are just no workers left with the
training. It is not just having a few days training. It takes time. Wages
for well qualified rig workers is around $150,000-$200,000, but even that is
not getting the trained guys since there are none left not working. At the
low end, hotel and food service workers can go to a factory or warehouse and
make much more than in a hotel. The hotel industry has a major problem that
it is aware of, but nobody wants to talk about NOI, and they just talk about
Revpar, since that hides the real crisis unfolding with cash flow as the
worker shortage worsens. The next year for hotels cash flow is going to get
ugly in many cases. Either wages go way up, or rooms do not get cleaned and
food service becomes bad. This means guests get angry, and rates and
occupancy suffer eventually. There is no answer for shortages of labor other
than higher wages in hotels, restaurants and similar places. It is unlikely
the flat yield curve will predict a recession this time.
CLO's -collateralized loan obligations, are back. These are similar to the
old CDO's in that they are pieces of loans left after a CMBS offering or in
some cases floaters, or other loans originated outside of the CMBS market.
For the moment, they are real loans fairly well underwritten, but over time
they will morph into lower quality and dicer securities. Happens every
cycle. Along comes the next batch of "smart MBA's" who push the envelope,
and then comes the dicier deals. There are differences from CMBS, but in the
end it is the quality of the underlying loans that matters. Quality will
deteriorate at some point.
Now the UK is in the same bad place as Germany in that the leader is very
weak and might be voted out at any time if the Conservatives can find a
viable candidate. It is just one more reason that the world is undergoing a
vast change from the post war rules of the game to a new generation of
leaders driven by more of a populist approach. Since the war, the world
operated with a certain set of ways of doing things, and diplomatic
niceties. Human rights was a major issue. Stopping the Soviets and now
Russia, and basically the US subsidizing everyone, was the way things were
done. That era is now over. Trump has drawn a line in the sand and voters in
the EU and the US have said it is time for a new approach. Most commentators
and politicians worry we are causing our "allies" to be angry with us.
Reality check- "allies" are only allies so long as they can take advantage
of us. The EU used us to protect them from the Soviets in the cold war, and
to fund their recovery from the war. Unfortunately, once recovery happened
and the cold war ended, the US continued to be the sucker, and to fund the
EU, and to pay for 80% of their military protection. The EU were our allies
so long as we paid them to be. Geopolitics is just like business, a party is
your friend only so long as it is to his economic advantage to be a friend.
If a better offer comes along, your "friend" and ally is off to the better
offer. Countries are no different. They are like people, they act in their
own best interests. So long as the Soviets, and then Russia, presented a
threat, and so long as we were paying the bills, they are our "allies". Now
Trump is saying out loud, the king has no clothes. He is calling on the EU
to share their own defense costs and responsibilities, and to trade with us
on a fair basis, and not on the old basis which advantaged them. He is
correct that the gas pipeline give Putin complete control of the EU, and
especially Germany, now that they closed all of the coal and nuke power
plants, and left themselves at Putin's mercy in the name of climate change.
Merkel correctly figured that so long as the US (Obama) was willing to pay
and be disadvantaged on trade, and on NATO costs, why not take advantage.
Obama was weak, so they took advantage of his ignorance and weakness. In the
end, the EU needs us, now more than before, while political chaos reigns in
the EU and the UK, and as Russia presents a threat. Trump is simply dealing
with reality knowing they need us, and knowing they are our friends only so
long as they need us. It is now the US that has the ultimate economic and
military power in the world, and under the Reagan /Schultz doctrine, when
you are strong, you have the advantage. The EU has no choice- they need the
US much more than the US needs them, and Trump has said it out loud. The EU
is angry because he has called their bluff, and he has the royal flush. The
press and the establishment just do not understand how to play the power
game.
Many say Trump has no strategy. Here it is. He follows the Reagan/Schultz
doctrine- rebuild the military to be overwhelmingly strong, and make it
clear you are willing to use it, and make the economy very strong so you win
the trade fights. Make it so everyone fears and needs us, and make it clear
we are not backing down. They found out this week this is a new world order
and the US is no longer the patsy. From that base you can bend the other
countries to your will if you are willing to be tough, demanding, and take
the time to get the right deal, and walk out unless they bend. I understand
Trump since I have always operated in business from the approach that I want
what I want, trust nobody, and will walk and say no until I get close to
what I want. I have always been willing to bet I can prevail in the end by
hanging tough, even when it was a pure bluff. Nice guys don't win ball
games. In my two major lawsuits it worked. In neither case did I have the
resources to extend the fight, but I was willing to risk it, and bluff, and
make it seem I could go on forever, turning down multiple settlement offers.
In both cases it paid off hugely. In both cases I walked when offered an
attractive deal, just not one good enough. Trump plays the same game. Make
demands, turn the screws, and hold out until the other guy loses or caves,
even if it causes some short term pain. Don't do what is expected, and what
is the norm. It is the same thing he is doing on tariffs. You just have to
be tough, take the pain and criticism, and wait out the other guy. Persevere
in what you really believe in, regardless of the criticism and pressure, and
no matter how ugly it may get. Trump is playing the long game on tariffs,
and is willing to wait until the EU cries uncle, and Canada suffers. The
press and politicians are playing the short game, which is always the losing
hand. After the NATO meeting the EU now knows they can't pressure Trump, and
so the tariffs will get sorted out soon.
Right now Trump is in the driver's seat. May badly needs a deal with the US
on trade, but with her new policy she has boxed herself out of that . The
soft Brexit deal is no deal, and will not survive. May played it all wrong.
It is not what Brexit is about. She wants a middle ground still subject to
EU rules, but Brexit was about ending the ability of Brussels to make any
rules. They may end up with a hard Brexit. They need a tough bastard to
replace May now. Merkel will give on auto tariffs, and then steel quotas,
and then farm products. The auto deal, the most key, is already well along
to getting done, she has already agreed preliminarily to steel quotas, so it
is really only farm products to get done. Then Canada falls into line. NAFTA
will wait until later in the year. Merkel has now agreed to increase spend
on NATO, and today agreed to much more than she intended once she and the
others realized Trump was really willing to really play hardball. Germany
has played us for suckers for decades. Trump is absolutely right that the EU
lived off the US taxpayer, and that game is now over. Even some in the EU
have admitted he is right. Several agree he is right on the pipeline issue.
Today Trump won far more than a much bigger NATO contribution. He won the
war of wills, which was far more important. Now the world really knows the
Obama era is over. The EU fears Trump now, and cannot predict what he may
do, and that gives him all the leverage in the negotiations. Liberals and
the press simply do not understand how this game is played because it is not
how it was done all these decades, but we just need to look at the world
today to see a mess with threats on all sides as a direct result of the past
polices, and ways of doing things. Politeness gets you into a weak place,
and leaves the other guy in control. Just look at Libya, Iran, Russia,
China, and places like Egypt. They are all dictatorships, and the people are
oppressed as badly as ever. Pakistan is now reported to have moved
aggressively against the Taliban and other terror groups in the northwest
due to Trump canceling $1 billion in aid until they do it. So what good was
all the play nice approach for all these years. It left the world a big,
dangerous mess. That is what Obama and years of playing nice got us. By
playing the Reagan policy of, we will outspend you in armaments and drive
you into bankruptcy, Trump leaves adversaries like Iran and N Korea unable
to compete and survive. Putin has the same issue that Gorbachev had. He
cannot afford to compete. It takes time and gets ugly sometimes, but in the
end, being strong is a winning formula. Go read the history of the Reagan
period, and you see the similarities. Reagan was also mocked in the press,
heavily criticized, called dangerous and a warmonger by the establishment,
the state department tried to change his best speeches, and were sometimes
horrified by what he said, but in the end he won big.
The populist anti-immigrant movement in the EU is ending Merkel's rule, and
Brexit will end May, and will push the EU and UK into the much better
cooperation with the US. EU anti-immigration rules, as of now, require
detention in camps, and deportation, and are no softer than Trump. The
fences are going up in Europe, and detention centers are opening. We are
witnessing the end of the post war policies and ways of diplomatic process
as it has been done for decades. All the human rights stuff and democracy
crap has resulted in weakness, and in the end more human rights abuses now
occur all across the world, more refugees, more terrorism, and less peace.
The liberal approach failed miserably. Turmoil is now in Iran, There are no
human rights in the Mideast other than Israel. China has none. North Africa
has none other than Morocco. China did not comply with the rules once it
joined WTO, and once it opened trade, despite that it was the naïve belief
and policy of the west that China would play nice if trade was opened. The
Chinese just played the west for suckers. There is no real democracy in most
places -even in some places in the EU like Hungary and Poland. The old way
has yielded disaster and death, refugees and misery, and no real democracy.
It is why Pompeo said clearly, we are prioritizing the real issues first,
then we will deal with human rights later. We will not try to tell others
how to run their government. The exact same approach as Reagan/ Schultz for
which they were also roundly criticized by the media.
Trump is doing exactly what he was elected to do despite the coastal elites,
many of you, and the establishment being horrified.
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2a) The Russia Indictments: Why Now?
2a) The Russia Indictments: Why Now?
The point of the hacking appears to have been to hurt President Clinton, not elect President Trump.
By Michael B. Mukasey
The indictment of 12 Russian military intelligence agents last week, on charges they hacked into Democratic National Committee and other servers during the 2016 campaign, raises questions about the timing of the announcement and the work of the hackers themselves. The news came on the eve of the Trump-Putin summit. Why then?
The president was told of the indictments before he traveled. Yet the plain effect of the announcement was to raise further doubts about the wisdom of the meeting—and perhaps to shape its agenda. Neither is the business of the special counsel or anyone else at the Justice Department. The department has a longstanding policy, not directly applicable here but at least analogous, that candidates should not be charged close to an election, absent urgent need, lest the charges themselves affect the outcome. The general principle would seem to apply: Prosecutors are supposed to consider the impact of their actions on significant events outside the criminal-justice system, and to act with due diffidence.
From a law-enforcement standpoint, there was nothing urgent about these indictments. All 12 defendants are in Russia; none are likely ever to see the inside of a U.S. courtroom.
Alternative strategies were available. In 2008 Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, known to law enforcement as the “Merchant of Death” and the defendant in a sealed indictment, was lured in a sting by U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agents to Thailand, where he was seized. The Thais, to their great credit, resisted heavy Russian pressure to release him. Instead they fulfilled their treaty obligations and granted a U.S. extradition request.
It has been argued that the objective of last week’s indictments was not to prosecute the defendants but to “name and shame” them. They were named, and even their military intelligence units disclosed—but shamed? In 2006 Alexander Litvinenko, a Russian defector to the U.K., was poisoned in London with polonium from a Russian nuclear facility. Litvinenko had charged that Vladimir Putin was directly responsible for bombing a Moscow apartment building in 1999, an event used as a pretext for the invasion of Chechnya.
Andrei Lugovoi, implicated in the assassination, fled the U.K. and returned to Russia. Not only did Moscow refuse a British extradition request, but Mr. Putin decorated Mr. Lugovoi for “services to the nation.” Mr. Lugovoi was given a seat in the Russian Parliament in 2007. On that record, the 12 indicted hackers are likelier to be lionized than ostracized.
Recall also that the only basis for appointing a special counsel under applicable regulations was the conflict of interest and special circumstance presented by a Justice Department investigation into possibly unlawful conduct by the president’s campaign. Thus the initial order appointing Robert Mueller directs him to investigate “any links and/or coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated with the campaign of President Donald Trump. ” Thus far, numerous Russians have been charged with crimes related to the campaign, and several “individuals associated with the campaign” have been charged with crimes unrelated to the charges against the Russians or to the Trump campaign. No “links” or “coordination” has been charged or even suggested.
Turning to the crime charged, and assuming that the 12 current Russian defendants are guilty, why did they do what they did, in the way that they did?
Despite the wide-eyed, golly-Mr.-Science tone in much of the news coverage, the indictment doesn’t portray cutting-edge Russian intelligence capabilities. The defendants all are said to be members of GRU, Russia’s main military intelligence unit. It is comprised largely of former special-forces types who are looked down upon by their more sophisticated competitors in the SVR, successor to Mr. Putin’s alma mater, the KGB. Their acts, as portrayed in the indictment, obviously were detected—in exquisite detail—by U.S. intelligence services. GRU’s phishing venture, although widespread, was primitive compared with the SVR’s capabilities.
Why would Mr. Putin, an SVR alumnus, give GRU a mission meant to be highly covert? Was this a serious attempt to swing the election to Donald Trump?
At the time of the hacking, virtually no one gave Mr. Trump any chance of winning. Mr. Putin is a thug, but he is not reckless. It seems unlikely he would place a high-stakes bet on a sure loser. Rather, he likely sought to embarrass the person certain to be the new president, assuring that she took office as damaged goods.
Why leave fingerprints? If the only goal was to inflict damage, the new president would have been not only damaged, but also resentful. Even the person who happily posed with a mislabeled “reset” button in frothier days likely would have turned sour.
The point likely was not merely to inflict damage but also to send a warning. Consider the Justice Department inspector general’s report on the FBI investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of an unauthorized and vulnerable email server. It found that the bureau had concluded the server could well have been penetrated without detection. Recall also that some of the people hacked by GRU agents were aware of that server and mentioned it in messages they sent, so that the Russians too were aware of it. The SVR certainly was capable of an undetected hack.
There are some 30,000 emails that Mrs. Clinton did not turn over, on the claim that they were personal and involved such trivia as yoga routines and Chelsea’s wedding. If they instead contained damaging information—say, regarding Clinton Foundation fundraising—the new president would have taken office in the shadow of a sword dangling from a string held by the Russians.
As we watch the drama of an investigation into whether the president or those close to him committed crimes to help the Russian government, it seems useful to keep in mind not only the possibilities but also the plausibilities.
Mr. Mukasey served as U.S. attorney general (2007-09) and a U.S. district judge (1988-2006).
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3) The President Turns the Tables on China
He imitates Beijing’s mercurial approach to negotiation.
By Jeff Moon
Usually it’s the other way around, as U.S. negotiators in government and business can attest. Chinese officials often blame the foreign counterpart for any number of problems. The foreigners then have a duty, according to the Chinese, to make things right. An old proverb often cited is that a man who drops a stone on his own foot must take responsibility for picking it up.
But instead of specifying the terms for a resolution, the Chinese officials wait for foreign concessions. When the proposal arrives, the Chinese reject it as inadequate, forcing the foreigners to negotiate against themselves, offering more in each successive round. In the end, the foreigners are relieved when the struggle concludes, but they regret settling on terms much less favorable than they had planned. A 1995 Rand Corp. study traced these techniques to 1971, when Premier Zhou Enlai reportedly blamed tensions over Taiwan on the U.S. as he pressed Henry Kissinger for favorable terms normalizing U.S.-China relations.
This Chinese approach is maddening enough for governments. Foreign businessmen are more vulnerable yet, because Beijing has total leverage over the future of their Chinese enterprises. Businessmen have no choice but to play China’s game, which commonly begins with investigations into misdeeds. Otherwise, their companies may fail regulatory reviews or lose their approval to operate. There are different versions of the game, but aggressive pressure for concessions—sometimes including the transfer of foreign technology—is a constant.
Unwittingly, Mr. Trump is turning China’s tried-and-true approach against it. He accuses Beijing of “ripping off” the U.S. and says longstanding Chinese policies are to blame for today’s trade tensions. His rhetoric addresses three U.S. interests: cutting the U.S. trade deficit with China, opening China’s market further to foreign businesses, and easing industrial policies such as the China 2025 plan, the stated goal of which is to exclude foreign technology vendors and then dominate global markets.
But Mr. Trump has never specified exactly what he wants or whom he has granted the authority to make a deal. He has shifted to China the responsibility to make things right. In response, Beijing has indicated flexibility regarding opening new sectors to foreign companies and importing more U.S. goods to reduce the trade deficit. To date, President Trump seems to have rejected these proposals as insufficient.
The Chinese clearly want to reach an agreement, but they remain confused about how to proceed. They may have to sweeten their offers and have even consulted Mr. Kissinger and other luminaries for negotiating advice. In the meantime, the Chinese have responded defensively to Mr. Trump’s tariffs with their own tariffs of equal amounts.
Mr. Trump’s negotiating style is bombastic, volatile and reckless. Its success remains very much in doubt, since the situation is difficult to read. But at least the Chinese government is learning an old American saying: What goes around comes around.
Mr. Moon is a former assistant U.S. trade representative for China.
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4) A modest proposal
Andy Smarick
Director, Civil Society, Education and Work
In 1945, the Austrian economist and public intellectual F.A. Hayek published an article on “The Use of Knowledge in Society.” It was a response to those advocating for planned economies, but its lessons can be generalized. Hayek was making a profound argument: We must appreciate the limited ability of central authorities to collect and use information. Even if we could make a government agency that was lean, efficient, and staffed only with able and selfless professionals, he pointed out, it would still struggle to achieve its ambitions.
The roadblock isn’t intentions; it’s information. It is “a problem of the utilization of knowledge,” Hayek wrote, “which is not given to anyone in its totality.” No one can ever have all the information necessary, much less all of it smartly combined and analyzed, to make the right decisions. In his words, “the knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess.” In other words, the countless minds thinking about, engaged in, and influenced by a policy matter will always know more in combination than any single body.
I am not an economist and in no way qualified to analyze Hayek’s views on the price system or business cycles. But I do know a little bit about policymaking. My views have been formed by work for six different government bodies over nearly 20 years—from a state legislature and Congress to the White House and Department of Education. What I glean from Hayek’s article is a five-part test that should be used by government officials prior to acting:
- Are you certain you have the information necessary to act wisely?
- Who are the experts who could acquire all the relevant information and translate it into smart policy?
- Assuming such experts exist, how would you find them?
- Can all the relevant information spread across countless interested parties be translated into a form that can be used by a single authority?
- Since conditions on the ground change constantly, can the necessary information be rapidly and continuously sent by the field to the governing body?
In my experience, government bodies often decide to act and then use whatever information is available to decide how to act. For instance, during the education-accountability era, led by states in the 1980s and ’90s then tightly embraced by Washington with the No Child Left Behind Act (2001), governments decided they wanted to hold schools accountable for results. They used reading and math test scores largely because that was the information that was available.
The “Hayek Test” suggests that government officials should first figure out what the right information consists of and then decide whether they are actually able to acquire enough of it. Only then should they decide on any action. In the case of education accountability, the federal government might’ve first asked, “What are all the things that we care about when it comes to school performance?” Then it would’ve asked, “Are we actually able to collect, analyze, and make use of all of that data for all of our schools?”
Hayek helps us recognize something that should be obvious: That it’s much easier for small, local agencies to answer “yes” to such questions than large, faraway bodies. An entity that oversees three nearby schools is better able to respond to changing conditions than a central body overseeing 3,000 schools spread far and wide.
Usable information takes different forms based on the size of the government body. A small-town mayor can take a daily briefing from his director of transportation to understand exactly what’s happening with traffic or road construction and know what citizens are experiencing. But if the Secretary of Transportation in Washington wants information on the status of each city’s roads, she’d need a statistical analysis of available standardized data reflecting averages and themes and largely devoid of personal experience.
Understanding how these types of problems result from centralized economic planning, Hayek argued for free markets and the price system. There are analogous strategies for other policy domains. Federalism and localism push decisionmaking down—local police make most day-to-day law-enforcement decisions, not the Attorney General. Similarly, tradition allows us to use knowledge accumulated over generations instead of constantly gathering information from scratch. G.K. Chesterton astutely noted that tradition offers a vote to our predecessors—he called it “the democracy of the dead.”
And in this regard, Hayek’s article remains particularly salient for our policymakers. He argued that scientific knowledge—in this case, knowledge of general rules of human behavior—isn’t everything. There is instead a “very important but unorganized knowledge” discovered and possessed in “particular circumstances of time and place.” This kind of specific knowledge seldom lends itself to statistical form.
I was a young congressional aide when No Child Left Behind was under consideration and tried to convince my boss, a representative from Maryland, to vote in favor. I was convinced the test data generated by this legislation would revolutionize education. We’d have information from all 100,000 public schools on reading and math proficiency. We’d be able to quantify the performance of different student subgroups.
But the congressman was suspicious of the law’s narrow focus on reading and math scores. He thought that those were poor indicators of school success. He didn’t think this data would necessarily enable experts to improve schools and thought emphasizing standardized tests would obscure the invaluable knowledge that local practitioners possessed. He believed good educators continuously adapt to changing community conditions, student needs, and so on, and he believed a cumbersome federal framework would hinder such work. Obviously my boss didn’t refer to what I’m calling the Hayek Test, but in hindsight, I see he was reasoning along those lines.
I haven’t mentioned that he was a former high school teacher and well understood how much more knowledge local leaders have compared to those far away. And I was overestimating the ability of a central authority to choose the right measures, to collect the data, and to make use of them. He voted against the legislation. It became law, nonetheless, and his concerns were largely borne out.
If a government agency becomes convinced that conditions have deteriorated far enough, it will put aside the knowledge problem and act. The pre-No Child Left Behind era was considered troubling enough that it begot the No Child Left Behind Act. This was not entirely irrational, but we failed to recognize the knowledge problem and our good intentions went awry. This is not to say that all efforts to centralize decision making are indefensible, but rather that policymakers too easily convince themselves that centralization, which means the acquisition of more power, is the right answer.
Hayek’s 1944 book, The Road to Serfdom, is well known for its argument that grand state planning leads to an increasingly authoritarian state. One of its themes is the coercive power of the state. As society believes more and more that authorities have the knowledge to act ably, more decisions are made centrally, the state increases in power, and the process begins again. As a result, those wanting to influence society increasingly see the attraction of working for the state. As Hayek wrote, as “the state will alone decide who is to have what, the only power worth having will be a share in the exercise of this directing power.”
The attraction is especially strong for those with technical expertise in some area of governing. As Hayek noted, “There is little question that almost every one of the technical ideals of our experts could be realized within a comparatively short time if to achieve them were made the sole aim of humanity.” The potential of centralized government to bring about very specific ends creates “enthusiasts for planning.”
Hayek recognized that there are two types of governing beliefs among state leaders. There are those who believe in “central direction and organization of all our activities according to some consciously constructed blueprint.” The better approach, he thought, was the other, “that the holder of coercive power should confine himself in general to creating conditions under which the knowledge and initiative of individuals are given the best scope so that they can plan most successfully.”
Now here is something to which every policymaker should aspire, using government authority to encourage non-government authority. The challenge, of course, is the policymaker’s accepting the diminution of his own authority. If you are going to empower others, you must accept that those empowered will do things that you don’t agree with and don’t like. You must put the principle of devolving power above your personal policy preferences. In my experience, though, most people who seek positions of authority do so because they want things to go their way, not someone else’s.
A decade ago, I was working at the White House, and the Bush administration was contemplating new regulations under the No Child Left Behind Act. One issue was whether to categorize a particular set of schools as low-performing, which would make them subject to intervention.
I was a strong supporter of this kind of tough accountability and wanted to aggressively identify and address failing schools. I was very firm in my views, and the trappings of White House employment do very little to encourage self-doubt. Back then everyone liked you when you worked at the White House. Everyone returned your calls. It was easy to feel smart and accomplished.
Sitting with my boss in his office in the West Wing, we considered using our authority to force the outcome that we liked. But in truth, it would’ve been a one-size-fits-all ruling from Washington. Did we know enough about the history of the schools that would be affected? No. Did we know how families and educators would react? No. Could we have made swift adjustments as facts on the ground changed? No.
In the end, we didn’t do it. This was a turning point in my policymaking career. I was realizing that the conservative principle of decentralization, when combined with the dose of humility and judiciousness essential in public service, demanded a course of action foreign to reformers on both sides of the aisle: relinquishing power. Standing up as a conservative policymaker required standing down, and the best use of authority is enabling and invigorating others.
But in moments of actual governing, it is terribly tempting to reach a very different conclusion, and the pressure is there for conservatives not to go soft and give in to the status quo—to use the authority it was so hard to acquire. If you believe that you have identified the right answer and know you possess the power to make it happen, your instinct will be to act. You might consider it governmental malpractice not to act.
I saw this early this decade when I was involved in crafting legislation to overhaul teacher evaluation in New Jersey. Here, too, I thought that some districts were not subjecting educators to rigorous enough evaluation, meaning that there were students assigned to the classrooms of ineffective teachers. The bill gave the state government substantial authority—at the expense of principals and district administrators—and there were detailed rules on what percentage of the teacher’s evaluation had to be based on student success and the consequences for educators deemed ineffective.
After the bill was passed, in the state’s department of education we had internal debates about implementation. The biggest battle was over how swiftly and comprehensively to bring the law to life. Some thought that anything other than rapid statewide implementation was an invitation for local delay and mischief. But did we really know enough about each of New Jersey’s 600 school districts, which assessments they used, what complicating provisions might be in their various union contracts? Didn’t we need a pilot implementation plan? Everyone agreed that piloting—working with and learning from a few districts first—would broadcast uncertainty. It would encourage local differentiation and slow the pace of change. Interestingly—importantly—some of us thought these were assets, not problems. Others thought them a worst-case scenario.
The pro-pilot side won, and some of the expectations of both sides were realized. The pilot program did lead to differences in local implementation and course-corrections in overall policy. But it also revealed significant variation in the school districts and enabled the reforms to be better tailored to actual needs. It helped instill in practitioners a sense of ownership of the work—that it was being done with them, not to them. The very uncertainty we broadcast enabled local success.
A few years later, I wrote an article advocating the training of what I called “school choice technocrats.” These would be people who worked inside government to advance school choice. The term—“school choice technocrats”—was purposely paradoxical. School choice is the antithesis of state planning; it means not having the government run all schools and not having it decide where kids go to school. It means empowering families. But technocracy means governing by elite experts who use their knowledge and power to plan for others. The school choice technocrat, I hoped, would be an example of Hayek’s vision of a government official who doesn’t aim to control more and more but instead to foster citizens’ knowledge and initiative.
When some area of public life isn’t working, we needn’t look for a central authority to solve things. Public officials can find creative policy tools that broadly distribute authority so individuals and communities can use their knowledge and preferences to plan for themselves. In The Road to Serfdom, Hayek offered a helpful binary—“planning for competition” instead of “planning against competition.” This is governing with energy and purpose, but also with humility.
If The Road to Serfdom is a catalogue of the consequences of experts consciously dominating individuals, Hayek’s follow-up, The Counter-Revolution of Science (1952), describes the dangers of overlooking or disregarding individuals. He was warning us against studying “wholes,” namely big systems, to the exclusion of understanding their component parts. As Hayek noted, there is a major difference between observing individuals’ actions as if through a telescope and understanding what things mean to individuals on the ground. The “expert” central administrator may have well-developed theories, massive data sets, and fascinating regressions, but these are often just the illusion of knowledge.
When politicians and policymakers lose sight of individuals, and their countless motives and their interactions with one another, we fail to grasp how complex and intertwined lives are. We can miss that people create—without any direction at all—systems, associations, and traditions that serve them well. It is easy to think that all of our social structures were the product of advanced planning and conscious design, when in fact they are organic and adaptive. The technocrat may dream of systems that are more rational, more intelligible, and more efficient, but those who understand the evolutionary nature of existing systems should also marvel at their natural wisdom, complexity, and robustness.
I’ve found the differences between these worldviews profound. Looking to the daily lives of individuals, I can’t help but be humbled. I recognize how little I know about their activities, what they value and why, their goals and worries. I’ve found that it’s all but impossible not to be struck by what Hayek called the “spontaneous” order that results from individuals leading their vastly different lives together.
It is like the passive voice in English, when a writer emphasizes what has been done and de-emphasizes who has done it. It’s not that a single brilliant mind created a social practice; it’s that a practice was created through an unplanned process. Consider the difference between a national agency designed by law to solve poverty and the thousands of locally developed food pantries, shelters, health clinics, treatment programs, and so on. Hayek cleverly got at this point by differentiating the terms “institution” and “formation.” The former implies an actor—someone instituted. The latter highlights the upshot—something was formed.
Hayek suggests a light hand when it comes to governing. If we know only the smallest fraction about individuals and their associations, and if their unplanned interactions are generating such social benefits, we should show great care before meddling. I view this as the policy equivalent of the old saying, “Don’t speak unless you can improve the silence.” It is akin to the insightful formulation known as Chesterton’s Fence: Never take down a fence until you are absolutely certain that you know why it was put up.
As Hayek noted, if we believe that all valuable institutions are the work of human planning, it’s a short step to the view that we have complete power to refashion them. If we built the machine, then there’s no harm in adjusting the knobs. Tinkering is just good engineering.
I was once on my way to becoming this kind of engineer. I’d gone to graduate school for policy. I was taught how monetary and fiscal policy can change the economy. I collected data and ran those fascinating regressions. I worked for a state legislature and Congress, where I learned to think in terms of laws and regulations. I was developing what Hayek called the “telescopic” view—comprehensive and from far away. But all the while, even as I was being pulled along by the hubristic impulses of the aspiring policy leader and the technocratic instructions from policy school, I was being followed around by countervailing lessons from the most formative, most humbling experience of my career: In 2006, I ran for the Maryland House of Delegates.
In campaigning, I knocked on over 10,000 doors. My district had farms, trailer parks, and public housing. It had middle-income townhouses and apartments, affluent suburban neighborhoods where houses had huge yards, densely populated row houses on tight city streets. I met government workers who played in cover bands in their spare time; entrepreneurs working at home in pajamas; people taking care of sick family members. I met folks who loved their local schools and the local library; three times I was asked if I wanted to join the Knights of Columbus.
I noticed that a surprisingly high number of people who had a “beware of dog” sign had no dog. I noticed older women disproportionately looked at my left hand to see if I had a wedding band. I learned to know what to expect when I approached a house with an American flag and a Semper Fi sticker on a car’s bumper. I was asked my views on abortion, the death penalty, and guns. But just as often I was asked about dredging, state policy on midwives, and that new speed bump the county put on the road just outside the neighborhood.
My experiences meeting so many different people, seeing so many different situations, were absolutely invaluable. They taught me the dangers of zooming out, of abstraction. I learned how people used rules of thumb, traditions, family, and voluntary associations to thrive. It was through retail politics, not graduate school, that I learned the difference between an “institution” and a “formation.”
To this day, when I hear aspiring policymakers leaning heavily on empirical analyses, trusting in their own intellectual and moral powers to solve every problem, and believing that human institutions need to be designed, my response is simple: “Go knock on 10,000 doors.”
I entered public service thinking of myself as a “conservative reformer.” What has remained constant over time is my belief in markets, in an enduring moral order, and in limits on government power. But what has shifted for me is where I put the emphasis in the term. I used to prioritize big, swift policy changes, whether with regard to schools, welfare, Social Security, or other domestic issues. I emphasized being a reformer.
But I’ve come to appreciate the risks of trusting that faraway government bodies know what reforms ought to be pushed, and how quickly. I increasingly emphasize the conservative part of “conservative reformer”—understanding the indispensability of humility, prudence, gradual change, existing institutions, and the empowerment of others. I have remained constant in my basic understanding of good government, but I’ve become more conscious of the mindset used to bring them to life.
Hayek understood all this long before I did. He deduced and explained the seductions of state authority, the dangers of technocratic exuberance, and the genius of evolved social formations—things I had to stumble upon while attending bureaucratic meetings and canvassing for votes in remote neighborhoods. He knew we can more readily trust individuals, communities, and the associations they form than anything created in Washington. He saw we could lean on philanthropy, nonprofits, and local governments instead of immediately turning our eyes to Washington. He hoped we would choose leaders who appreciate the limits of their own knowledge, the expanse of others’ wisdom, and the value of pluralism—leaders who possess a deep-seated desire to elevate and activate their neighbors, who will act on their principles in the best interests of country rather than simply acquiring more and more authority.And such figures can contribute to legislation that answers pressing problems, as welfare reform did in 1996 and the Every Student Succeeds Act in 2015. Both explicitly pushed authority down and out.
For me, the domestic-policy reform that has best exemplified this approach in recent years is “chartering,” the process that enabled charter schools to come about. The traditional policy approach to public education has been to have a single government body—the school district—own and operate all schools in an area. In some cities, this meant that one set of central-office experts made decisions related to hiring, contracts, purchasing, and much more for hundreds of schools. And in instances where that urban district was failing, the typical response was to centralize and give more power to the state or federal government.
Chartering went in the other direction. It empowered a vast array of community-based organizations to create different types of public schools. It empowered families to choose from among them. It was a policy that devolved authority. It appreciated the valuable differences among us. It allowed individuals and communities to plan for themselves. It helped create in America’s cities high-performing, nimble, dynamic, responsive systems of schools.
Government can be modest if politicians and policymakers appreciate the limits of central agencies, the complexities of individuals’ lives, and the spontaneous order around us. If public officials have as their North Star the empowerment of others, then government leadership can be meaningful, exhilarating, and inspiring. It can be deeply humble.
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