PLEASE HOLD E MAILS!
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/03/15/cyberthreats_the_vexing_new_front_in_modern_warfare_136534.html
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this fits with my last memo about the future of man:https://video-subtitle.tedcdn. com/talk/podcast/2016S/None/Od edShoseyov_2016S-480p-en.mp4
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Humor:
Larry died. His will provided $40,000 for an elaborate funeral. As the last guests departed the
funeral, his wife, Sarah, turned to her oldest and dearest friend. "Well, I'm sure Larry would be
pleased," she said.
"I'm sure you're right," replied Jody, who lowered her voice and leaned in close. "How much did this
really cost?"
"All of it," said Sarah. "Forty thousand."
"No!" Jody exclaimed. "I mean, it was very nice, but $40,000?"
Sarah answered, "The funeral was $6,500. I donated $500 to church. The whiskey, wine and snacks were another $500. The rest went for the Memorial Stone."
Jody computed quickly. "$34,500 for a Memorial Stone? My God, how big is it?" "Four and a half carats."
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More Rants (See 1 below.)
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This from a very, very dear friend, fellow memo reader and brilliant psychiatrist regarding Trump:
"I agree. Also he sits with the arms closed in front of his chest. That is a no-no in psychiatrist terms.
It may mean that he is hiding something, not open to conversation or not accepting what he is being told.
Happy spring , M----"
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Dick
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1)I previously mentioned that it is the credit spread that matters as much as the index rate. Right now there are numerous sources of debt for real estate ranging from traditional banks and insurance companies to private equity funds, mortgage loan funds, and assorted other lenders. They are all competing for a shrunken pool of opportunities. This leads to the borrowers being able to shop their deals to get better, lower spreads. So the ten year might go up by 10 or 15 basis points, but spreads on a specific deal might go down by a like amount if the deal is attractive enough to the lenders. So just looking at rising 10 year base rates is not what matters. Most loans today are actually priced over the swaps rate, so the pure ten year treasury rate is not the index. Swaps can vary in spread from the ten year rate as well as the credit spread. The other issues for borrowers are covenants, and the competition by lenders to get the deal can sometimes result in covenant light, meaning looser terms than would be the case if money was tight. It all depends on who is the sponsor, how good is the deal, how much leverage the borrower wants, and location of the property. Point is, don’t just assume because the ten year yield is up a few basis points, that it is so bad for all real estate deals. The ten year is still near an all-time low and even at 2.9%, it Is still possible for a very good sponsor, with a good deal, to get a very attractive rate on his loan and 70% leverage. This even goes for land development loans. It takes a lot to get a good loan, but if you are a good borrower and a solid project it is very achievable.
We are past the wave of 2007 -2008 maturities that threatened to crowd out new loans. One way or another these maturing loans got repaid, modified, deed in lieu, or worked out with added equity infusions. That means there is now more capacity for lenders to make new loans and that has increased the competition by lenders which is good for borrowers. Corporate bond default rates are expected to drop to 2.2% this year from 3.2% in January. While leverage levels have risen again, it is very different if you can lock in 4% vs 6%-or 8% years ago before the crash. With lower taxes and a fast growing economy, the risk of default for several more years is low. Because banks have far more base capital, the risks to the banking system are far less than ever. The banks also hold far less risk on their own balance sheets and there are no more sidecar entities they used to hide the real risk. Primary bond dealers held $279 billion of corporate bonds. Today they hold $24 billion. Debt is much more affordable with very low interest rates, and cash flow is at record high levels thanks to tax reform and good economic growth. With inflation remaining at moderate levels, interest rates will remain relatively low for at least several more months. Default risk will remain very low for at least this year.
There is still no final decision as to what is the replacement for Libor, and how the transition is to work. The documentation for new loans today is tricky in that nobody is sure what the replacement will be, and in transition from Libor to the new index, it is not clear how the pricing adjustment will be handled so neither party gets hurt. As a result, lawyers are having to be creative in the sections related to the index rate and how to finalize pricing and adjust for differing indexes. We are still 2-3 years way from all this getting finalized, but Libor will be gone by 2021, and maybe sooner. There are trillions in loans around the world indexed to Libor, so it is a bit messy right now and the closer we get to 2020, the messier it becomes. There are bound to be lawsuits when it happens with one side or the other claiming the adjustment was not in accord with the documents which by necessity will be somewhat vague until the final index is agreed. This will be messy no matter what is decided. It is a lawyers dream come true as far as fee generation possibilities.
If you think hacking is bad now, wait until AI takes over for the hackers. It will soon be possible for hackers to use AI to unleash storms of cyber-attacks by robot computers. Current defenses may become overwhelmed. It will be a battle of the AI geeks to attack and to defend. One of the other areas of danger is using AI to control swarms of drones to launch military attacks by overwhelming defenses. This technology exists now, and it is why the US military is working on lasers as defense as well as other electronic defenses to foil drone attacks. Just as the Iranians try to use swarms of small attack boats to attack US navy vessels in the straits, attackers will use swarms of drones. There are defenses being developed but a F-35 cannot take out a swarm of drones by itself the way it can blow up an aircraft. Israel and the US are way ahead in this field, but it is moving very fast, and it is why we need tens of billions for defense to develop these weapons and defenses. In China now the government is using AI to track everyone in a given area with facial recognition, and other identifying factors. The Chinese budget just released spends more on this internal security equipment than on external defense. In a couple of years, China will be George Orwell’s dream come true, and Xi will control it all. AI will change life for the better in most cases, but the bad guys like Putin and Iran will try to use it for very bad things. With Google, Facebook, Instagram and the other social networks, there is no privacy in the US anymore. If you think you have privacy you are naive. If you go online to buy anything, use Facebook or Twitter or Instagram -you have a data set all about you somewhere. Just look what happens next time you go online to consider buying something and all of a sudden, ads appear with similar product offers. As soon as you go on your phone they know where you are. So now assume it is China and the AI tracking programs and equipment they use. The government knows all. Science fiction has arrived in real time.
Believe it or not, wood is replacing steel and concrete in tall skyscrapers in some places. Apparently the technology has been perfected such that wood now can be made stronger than steel and fireproof. Go look it up online. It Is not yet in the US, and it is new, but the first of these buildings are under construction in other countries, and if it proves itself, you will see it here. Cost and speed of construction is driving this.
Critical lesson for everyone signing agreements to sell a company, or do some other similar transaction or joint venture. In my big law suit on Sacramento we won the case on a single word in a key sentence. That was the entire case in a single word-refinance. The appeal judges focused on that single word-refinance. I wrote the one sentence that was the whole case, and I wrote it myself because I knew going into that deal that it would be the key to any case where the guy was going to try to not pay us. I wanted to be sure it was in simple English and with no possible ability to misconstrue what it said. And that was the key to our winning. In at least two other cases I know, the lawyers were not so careful to read the documents and the principals lost millions as a result. Bottom line—if you are the principal you must read every word in a sale or JV document, and make certain that the key sentences which dictate if you get paid or not are in clear, precise English with no chance of misunderstanding. You must be fully aware of exact terms of calculating if you get paid on an earn out, and time limits on when you must act or not. Do not ever trust your lawyers to do this. Many lawyers are excellent, but just because someone passed the bar, does not make every lawyer competent. Do it yourself. Be sure you understand all the key covenants, and remember key dates and triggers even if it is a few years later. These were key to our winning our lawsuit.
Now we have the first proof that there was no collusion. It really was a plot to go after Trump and upset his ability to govern. It is clear Mueller has no evidence either. Schiff will scream it is a cover up and the investigation is not complete, but that is just the Dems wanting to cover their butts and keep the script in play for the media. There also is no case for obstruction. Drafting a press release that was essentially true is not a crime, and there was no crime to obstruct. Firing Comey had a legal basis, and was demanded by the Dems until Trump fired him, and then it is suddenly obstruction. Trump had every right to fire him, and this is not Nixon. The Investigation of Trump and collusion went on at the FBI, and by Mueller, and now there Is no case to have obstructed since there was no collusion. The media will keep trying to make a case for obstruction, but there is nothing there.
The Dems are hoping to win the House, and supposedly white suburban and urban women will be the difference. I wonder what it is these women are voting against other than they just do not like the individual Trump. Surely it can’t be womanizing after Clinton. Is it their tax reduction, their rising stock portfolio value, their rising home value, record low unemployment for blacks and Latinos, a far better DACCA deal than the Dems put forward, the rebuilding of relations with Israel and the Arab states, the near record low unemployment, 3% GDP growth everyone said was impossible, rebuilding the military, maybe having a shot at denuclearization of N Korea, reestablishing a good working relationship with XI, crushing ISIS which has led to a material reduction in terror attacks in Europe and the US, the reversal of losses in Afghanistan and now talk of a peace agreement possibility, attacking Syrian chemical weapons facilities, Standing with our allies against Iran, deregulation which has spurred greatly accelerated growth in the economy, a chance for real laws to prevent school shootings, a possible real infrastructure program, support for school choice for poor kids, getting NATO to pay more for their defense so the US taxpayer is not supporting them, or maybe they are signing on to the new Dem platform to raise taxes back up, bring back regulation which will kill economic growth, pay people not to work with minimum guaranteed incomes, clamping down on free speech, or maybe they are for the new Dem policy of eliminating ICE so there will be no deportation of MS-13. Putin is correct- the US is eating itself with the political battles now being fought by the Resistance. If it is educated white women in the suburbs and cities, then one wonders where they got their education, and how they lost their ability to think clearly. Do they really think there is anything good to come of a vote by House Dems to impeach Trump which will have no real legal basis, but will disrupt the country and our foreign policy. Putin understands us better than we do. He thinks we have lost our collective minds. A year ago I said ignore the tweets and what Trump says, and watch what the cabinet does.
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