Update.

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Ross rants. (See 1 below.)
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If we abandon the Middle East Iran , Turkey, Russia and China are waiting in the wings. Doubt the world would be safer.  Has the Middle East become a Tar Baby for America? (See 2 and 2a below.)

Was Yesterday's response by Iran calculated to save face and miss targets against  our forces?

Iran Launches Revenge Attack: a Deliberate Fail?Is this Iran's way of saving face? Read and Watch 

Trump will speak soon and I would bet he will issue a further warning but not escalate.  Finally:

Is Iran prepared to escalate by virtue of their positioning of terrorists in our hemisphere? (See 3 below.)
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Dick
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1) When you consider all of the data in my last Rant as a relatively comprehensive measure of the current US economy, it is very hard to see where a recession emanates from in 2020. There is little reason to think the job market is about to fall out of bed, or that interest rates are going to suddenly move materially higher. The Fed is flooding the market with liquidity, and the banks are as solid as they have ever been. The housing market is very strong and way under supplied. While stocks are highly priced, it is much more likely they rise somewhat this year, rather than fall, even with Iran. Jobs remain plentiful and consumers are continuing to spend and save. Low income workers are getting substantial increases in income. With the trade deals now in place, there is only Brexit, and a deal with the EU to be completed. Boris will make a good deal for the UK, and even if it is a hard break instead of a negotiated deal, it is well advertised as to timing, so there is no reason things will not be in place in time to deal with a hard break. He will then rapidly cut a good trade deal with Trump. The EU will be left as the odd man out and will now need to acquiesce to Trump, or he can crush them with tariffs. Impeachment is not an issue. Iran will be a war of some nature, and will be very ugly, but in the end will not negatively impact the US economy other than possibly in a favorable way with ramped up defense spending, and more pumping by frackers. The world economy will remain weak, but it will not impact the US any more than it already has. Tariffs will have a limited impact now. We now control our own oil prices to a great degree. Bottom line, I just do not see how the US economy goes into recession in 2020, unless Trump loses, and I judge that to be highly unlikely.  As further support, some prominent economic forecasters have now backed off their 2020 predictions of a recession by summer, and have agreed one is getting more unlikely this year

If you are considering how to invest money long term for your kids or grandkids, just consider this stat from Barclays   $100 invested in stocks in 1928 would be worth $255,553 in 2013, and far more today. The same $100 invested in Treasuries would equal $6,925 in 2013. While there would be big fluctuations in between in stock values, overtime equities are the far away winner if money is parked for the long term.  if you wish to create real wealth for future generations, the strategy is very obvious.  Just buy a good S&P index fund and put it in trust. Do not pay management fees or commissions to some wealth manager to “balance the portfolio” and end up with far less when the kids cash in years or decades later. 

Chinese stocks ended the decade with a loss of 6.9%. That is the only major index in the world with a loss and almost the only one at all. The S&P was tripled, and Stoxx was up 69% while Japan doubled. 

Boeing is as much as .25% of GDP so when it is back in full production in spring GDP will pop in Q2

The Iranians have to be worrying how the US knew in perfect detail how and when Soleimani was traveling, down to the car he was in, and exactly when and where to the exact spot on the road. That information had to have been a closely held secret in Iran. They now have to wonder what else do we know in detail and how do we know. With the population in revolt they have to worry that millions of citizens represent a potential spy. Iran has to do something, but I doubt they will launch a major retaliation now that they know Trump is capable of doing anything, and he has carried through on his warnings in a very unexpected way, unlike Obama and the infamous red line that became no line. It has to be a real shock to the system in Iran and elsewhere. They have to believe Trump really will launch a major counter attack this time inside Iran, and he is not bluffing. They can launch dozens of rockets and ground attacks by locals, but we can shoot them down, and then wipe out the launch pads quickly. We then can destroy much of the Iranian military and oil refineries. They also have to figure out what to do to save face, but not to incur a massive response by the US that might set off internal revolts, and  that really creates major problems for them. If Trump launches a major response that destroys refineries and major military bases, then Iran is in a much worse spot than now. Do they declare all out war and attack Israel, in which case they will get totally destroyed by a combined US and Israel mass attack. Or do they do some little thing which loses face for them. Do they try a major cyber-attack on US infrastructure, in which case, we respond with our own cyber attack plus a military attack. The US now has substantial firepower in the area, and much more nearby to call on quickly.  Our forces are ready to launch at a moment’s notice. There have been reports that our special forces have been inside Iran doing recon for months, so we are very prepared to destroy key targets quickly.  It is also likely that the CIA and Mossad are inside as well ready to foment further uprisings.

The press and Dems can dither about how many missiles Iran has, or its little navy, or cyberattacks, but we have been preparing for all of this for years. What the Dems and press fail to appreciate is with Trump, Iran is in a lose, lose position. The Dems simply are too stupid, or deeply ingrained in their liberal views to understand projection of power by a determined president, and, most important, the will to use it. They would continue the Obama Biden failed policy of appeasement, and instead Trump is working to eliminate the Mullahs and the Iranian proxies, with hope the anti-Iran forces now revolting in several countries taking over. It is binary- Dems say do nothing, which means increased attacks on Americans by the proxies killing many more Americans, and hoping we leave, as Obama did in Iraq, or the Trump strategy, which is to deal with the problem now and save many lives, and the chance to remake the Mideast. The Dem policy would be to again appease and concede, and in the end Iran would be in control of the Mideast. There would be a war with Israel and /or Saudi where we would have to go to their aid in a much less viable position.  Or they build the bomb, or buy a few from Kim, and we wring our hands and pass UN resolutions. 

Not only are we now sending a message to Iran, but also to Kim and Putin. If attacked we will show the world what happens now under Trump, and Kim has already certainly noticed.  There has been no Christmas surprise. Everything is now different going forward. If Iran does do something, and Trump counters with a major attack, which he will, the Dems and the world will dither and run in circles screaming, but Trump will have changed everything in the Mideast, and rectified negligent inaction of the past 40 years on dealing with Iran.  I view a response by Iran as a good event, as it triggers our opportunity to end the Iranian hegemony in the Mideast. Some Americans will die, but doing nothing would have meant many more would die in the end. This is 1938 all over again. The last thing Congress should be doing is passing restrictions on our ability to carry the attack forward.

The other major terrorist killed was Muhandis-the top guy in Iraq running the Shia militias. He was almost as key as Soleimani. We don’t know who else was in the car, but they were possibly other senior terrorists. The kill was a massive hit to the terror network taking out both of them plus likely some other top leaders. The militias now are leaderless, and it is unclear where all that goes from here. Soleimani is not replaceable.

The continuing flow of really ignorant, disgraceful, and plainly stupid statements made by Dems related to Iran, is hard to believe. As dumb, and unprincipled as I think most politicians are, I still struggle to get why they say some of what they do, and how they still do not understand what a huge threat Iran represents to the rest of the world order, and our own security. It says a lot about how ignorant most of the press is when they report what Kaepernick or the bartender from the Bronx, or some ignorant actress say.  Why does anyone care what a failed football player says and a kid bartender with a Twitter following has to say. When the press reports on the comments of Omar and Talib, they demonstrate that they rank even lower than I thought possible. Why would you even give these morons air time at all. It is really bad when the Dems were slamming the action before they even heard the briefing, especially Schiff claiming it was done just to deflect from impeachment. That guy should be brought up on ethics charges and removed from chair of intelligence. With him that chair is an oxymoron.

The move by Dems to limit Trump’s ability to fight Iran is beyond irresponsible and dumb. Why not just invite the Ayatollah over for tea. What is the military supposed to do.  Oh its 30 days we now go home if in the middle of a battle??? These people are truly dangerous to our security due to their Trump derangement syndrome. And they introduced that BEFORE they got the briefing

As usual the Europeans are nowhere, but are running away from us in Iraq despite Iran abrogating the entire nuke deal. That is why Trump does not count on allies. They are also dithering despite their own direct experience in 1938. It boggles the mind that the EU is repeating the same stupid policy as 1938, and worrying about not stirring the pot instead of realizing that they have paid a heavy price in terror attacks for years because Iran has been funding and instigating terrorists all that time. It just shows once again that few people learn their history lessons, and this allows horrible people like Hitler, Stalin and the Soleimani to exist and commit mass murder. There can be no peace with a deal with the Mullahs, only their overthrow and destruction will solve the Mideast mess.  Anything else is naïve, and just postpones a much worse problem later. Now is the time to act. Appeasement of murderous dictators has always resulted in eventual war.  They treat appeasement as weakness and successful intimidation. The Europeans tried that with Chamberlain-peace in our time. Biden and the Dems and press are spouting the exact same foolish policy.

In 1789, when Napoleon was running rampant across Europe and the Mideast, there was great fear in America that he would send an armada here to invade up through the Mississippi. We had no standing army or navy at the time. There were raging battles in Congress between the royalists who supported English relationship, and the Francophiles. The battles were over raising an army and preparing to take on the French if they invaded. It became extremely bitter. So if you think the battle over taking on Iran is a new event for Congress, go read history.

If you wonder where those tuition dollars are going: the diversity staff at Penn State is 66 , U of Mich 93, and Amhurst 19. A considerable number of these worthless people are paid over $100,000 and the deans in charge over $500,000. Yes that was $500,000 to write memos and give orientation lectures to freshman. And you wonder what the hell kids are learning in university today. These staffs need to justify their existence and salaries so they look for reasons to find problems where none existed. That is your tuition hard earned dollars being wasted. And that is one main reason why student loans are so out of control.

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2)Loss of Soleimani won’t stop Iran’s long-term goal of regional hegemony - JNS.org

By YAACOV LAPPIN

Despite the substantial blow absorbed by Iran due to the Jan. 3 assassination of the notorious Quds Force commander, Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, by U.S. military forces, the regime is set to continue its expansion program to dominate the region, Israeli observers have assessed.

“No one can dispute the fact that Qassem Soleimani was undoubtedly not only one of the most skilled commanders in Iran throughout the past decades, but that he had many types of skills—not just militarily but also politically,” Raz Zimmt, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told JNS.

Soleimani’s ability to manage relations with Iraqi Shi’ite militias, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi forces in Yemen and the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad (added to his ability to convince Russia in 2015 to enter the Syrian war to rescue Assad) all meant that he was a most significant figure who was in the “right place at the right time” from his perspective, said Zimmt.

“It’s totally clear that the Quds Force and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps absorbed a painful blow,” stated Zimmt, editor of “Spotlight on Iran,” which is published by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.

Nevertheless, unlike non-state terror organizations, Iran is an organized state, he stressed, and those setting the strategy in the Islamic Republic are continuing to function. They are made up of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and members of Iranian Supreme National Security Council.

Soleimani, despite being highly influential, did not set the strategy and core objectives, noted Zimmt.

“Soleimani is the one who implemented the strategy with a large degree of success, although he had quite a few failures as well. Hence, the bottom line is that in short term, in my assessment, we can expect to see damage to the operational capabilities of Iran. But that is unlikely to change their regional agenda. They won’t change their objectives.”

Attention is now turning to Soleimani’s successor, Esmail Ghaani, who was, until the assassination, the Quds Force deputy commander. Ghaani will now face the test of being able to deliver on Iran’s regional agenda.

“No one really knows Ghaani well,” said Zimmt. “But it must be said that he knows the Quds Force well. He has been its deputy commander since the end of 1990s.”

While possibly lacking Soleimani’s charisma, Ghaani is close to the supreme leader, said Zimmt, noting that both were born in the city of Mashhad and had been in contact since the 1980s following the Iranian revolution.

Pronouncements about the end of Iran’s destructive role in the region are premature, Zimmt cautioned, saying that “Soleimani was important, effective and fairly successful, but Iran will continue to implement its strategy.”

New commander of the Iranian Quds Force Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani. Credit: Erfan Kouchari via Wikimedia Commons.

Asked whether Iran could also seek to target Israel in its retaliation to the assassination, Zimmt said Tehran has no interest in dragging Israel into the clash, due to the fact that they are in “up to their necks” with the United States at the moment, and because “it is clear to them that Israel is not Saudi Arabia—it will respond.”

At the same time, he said, “I can’t rule out the possibility that if a U.S.-Iran clash escalates, the Iranian thinking might change, and they could drag Israel in.”

In addition, the separate Israeli-Iranian shadow war in Syria has not ended, and the Iranians are still committed to responding to Israeli action taken to prevent Iranian entrenchment.

‘Iran has a problem’

Ely Karmon, a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) in Herzliya, told JNS that Iran had many options to contemplate in its revenge against America, including potential attacks on embassies and military bases overseas. The problem for Iran, he said, is in figuring out what would be painful enough without causing U.S. President Donald Trump to react too harshly.

Referring to the recent Iraqi parliament vote calling for a U.S. departure from Iraq, Karmon said that a parliament has no authority to cancel a Status of Force Agreement (SOFA), and that only a prime minister could do that. Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi is currently serving only in a caretaker role following his Nov. 29 resignation.

Karmon said that one of Soleimani’s missions in Iraq may have been an attempt to secure the appointment of a pro-Iranian prime minister.

Looking ahead, Karmon said if they feel vulnerable in Baghdad’s Green Zone, U.S. military forces could reposition to the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, where some American forces already operate out of a base near Kirkuk, and where close working relations are in place with the friendly Kurdish Peshmerga forces.

Such a move would also boost Kurdish hopes of preserving autonomy and could be used to undermine Iran, he argued.

Karmon said he doubted that Iran would activate Hezbollah against Israel at this time, since firing rockets and missiles could quickly result in a deterioration into general conflict, but that Iranian-controlled Iraqi and Afghan militias in southern Syria could launch attacks on the Golan Heights.

“The physical war between Israel and Iran in Syria will continue, and it is broadening into Iraq, as IDF Chief of Staff [Aviv Kochavi] recently stated,” said Karmon. Simultaneously, Iran will likely focus on Iraq as a central arena to take over.

“The Iranian maneuver is to eject the U.S. from Iraq,” emphasized Karmon. “But they have to take into account the fact that they’re in a problematic situation. There have been big demonstrations in Iran, and 1,500 people have been killed recently in disturbances. There have been anti-Iranian protests in Iraq, which are likely to continue, and 500 have been killed. Then there are the protests in Lebanon.

“Due to all of these fronts, Iran has a problem,” he continued. “Their response will not involve shooting from the hip. They will seek to avoid aggravating the unpredictable President Trump.”

2a)

SYRIA

Jockeying for Position

Russian President Vladimir Putin made a surprise visit to Syria on Tuesday amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, following the killing of an Iranian general by a US drone strike earlier this week, Reuters reported.

Putin met with Syrian President Bashar Assad to discuss the recent developments in the area and plans to “eliminate terrorism” in the Idlib region, one of the last pieces of territory held by anti-Assad insurgents.

Russian and Iranian support helped Assad maintain power and win back nearly all of Syria’s territory, after rebels tried to overthrow him during the Syrian civil war that began nearly nine years ago.

The visit comes a few days after the killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was one of the key figures during the civil conflict and the architect of Iranian military operations in the Middle East.

Analysts believe that Putin’s visit – his second since Moscow’s direct intervention in the conflict – is intended to reinforce Russia’s position in Syria, since Iran’s position has weakened after the death of Soleimani.
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3)

By Todd Bensman

Weirdly absent from much of the professional speculation about where and how Iran will exact its promised “severe revenge” for the U.S. drone strike killing of Quds Force Gen. Qassem Suleimani is mention of the dead man’s highly suggestive hint. During a time of intense saber rattling between Iran and President Donald Trump in July 2018, Suleimani gave a speech during which he called out the American president: “Mr. Gambler, Trump! I’m telling you that we are close to you, exactly where you wouldn’t think that we are.”

So what might Suleimani have meant when he suggested his reach was closer than we think? You’d never know it from New York Times and Washington Post analyses. Their commentaries about where Iran and its Hezbollah proxy might strike primarily quote prognosticators naming bullseyes not only far away from the American homeland – American troops on Middle East bases, allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, shipping in the Persian Gulf, or American officials and citizens presumably also overseas – but also exactly where anyone would think the attackers are.

Trump has vowed drastic measures if Iran hits any Americans, but as foreign policy experts predict, these worst-case scenarios are an unlikely outcome. While American media and citizens entertain escalating World War III-esque theories, however, honest analysis and prudence demand we consider Iranian threats much closer to home.

Here’s what is missing from the analysis. Iranian avengers, in the form of Quds Force-supported Hezbollah operatives of the clandestine “Unit 910,” are stationed in cities across America, set to activate pending distant command on target lists they have painstakingly developed over time. Hezbollah operatives also are positioned throughout Latin America, where American officials and economic interests are ubiquitous, at least as close as Nicaragua.

Terrorists Planted In the U.S. to ‘Carry Out Assassinations’

We know Shiite Muslims from Lebanon have been recruited and trained to live in American cities as sleeper agents of Hezbollah’s so-called clandestine External Security Organization (ESO), known colloquially as Unit 910, because agents have been prosecuted over the years, leaving behind detailed public records. The most current source of public information about Unit 910 in America comes from two federal prosecutions that resulted in 2019 convictions, one of Ali Kourani in the Bronx, New York, and the other of Samer El Debek in Dearborn, Michigan.

These Lebanese immigrant terrorist spies were routinely sent home to train in weapons, spycraft, and killing on American soil as soon as they were eligible for useful U.S. citizenship and passports. Their main purpose from about 2007 until their 2017 arrests was to pose in plain sight as normal immigrant family men while they collected weapons and built target lists for when they were activated to strike, court records show.

Their targets tended to be Jewish Americans, Israelis inside the United States, and symbolic and pragmatic sites of importance. For example, after undergoing counter-surveillance and weapons training on trips to Lebanon, Kourani’s handler had him identify Jewish businessmen in New York City who were former or current members of the Israeli Defense Forces worth killing.

Kourani cased a government armory in Manhattan and scoped out the FBI and U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services buildings, sending video to Lebanon. He also sent intelligence on how passengers disembarked from planes at John F. Kennedy International Airport, how U.S. customs agents screened and collected luggage, and the locations of security personnel, cameras, and magnetometers. Kourani located storage spaces where firearms and a legal explosive known as “samad” could be stockpiled. He was told to buy drones, night-vision goggles, and high-powered cameras.

The purpose of all of this, he confessed to FBI agents, was to build a capability for “assassinations and attacks in the U.S.” As one FBI document paraphrased, Kourani lived a double life as one of Hezbollah’s “sleepers — tasked to maintain ostensibly normal lives, who could be tasked with operational activity should the ESO decide to take action.”

In Michigan, El Debek operated on the same model, according to the criminal complaint. He too was a salaried operative dating to about 2007 ($1,000 a month plus medical expenses), trained and indoctrinated during multiple trips back to Lebanon to kill on command inside the United States when ordered. El Debek specialized in building bombs.

The U.S. citizenship and passport came in handy; Hezbollah sent El Debek to Thailand to transfer explosives out of a safe house and at least twice to Panama, where he built target lists of Americans and Israelis in 2011 and 2012.

Posing as an entrepreneur, El Debek surveilled the American and Israeli embassies and the Panama Canal. He noted U.S. embassy security, especially the “periods of heavy traffic into and out of the embassy, vehicular patterns in front of it, and the locations of houses and apartments,” records show. El Debek located hardware stores that sold bomb precursors such as acetone and battery acid. He sent photos and notes to Lebanon, where they no doubt handily remain.

While the extent of Unit 910 cadres in American cities is publicly unknown, the cautious presumption should be that El Debek and Kourani were hardly the only two. Other prosecutions date to 9/11, including a 2011 plot authorized by Suleimani himself for a Texas operative to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, D.C., at Cafe Milano, a plan which failed miserably.

Indeed, lightly redacted, normally classified internal FBI reports show Kourani named 15 probable operatives in New York, New Jersey, Florida, and Canada. The documents name a Queens mosque Kourani said was aligned with Hezbollah and list the names of sympathizers involved in credit card fraud, counterfeit clothing rackets, an auto parts theft scam, and schemes to export cars to West Africa, a Hezbollah global money-laundering hallmark.

The network is prevalent enough in Western countries that an “association of Western intelligence organizations” hosts a public website titled “Stop 910.” In English, Spanish, and Arabic, the site provides photos of suspected agents and instructions for how to anonymously inform.

 Bases Are as Close as Nicaragua

As a journalist during a time of extreme Iran-U.S. tensions in 2007, I traveled to Nicaragua after U.S. nemesis President Daniel Ortega struck close bilateral relations with Iran, which opened a consulate in Managua. I found the Iranian compound in a posh neighborhood, guarded by Nicaraguan troops. For three days, I knocked on the tall metal gates, asking to interview the new ambassador. “Soon, very soon, but not today,” a polite aide always told me.

  

Frustrated that all I was getting to see was the peak of a limp Iranian national flag jutting over the tall gates, I clambered up to a neighboring building rooftop and shot photos of the compound’s interior, spy-like, then went off to interview Sandinista leaders and regular citizens about the Iranians encamped in their country.

Journalists at the country’s largest-circulation newspaper, La Prensa, provided leaked government documents showing that Nicaragua’s chief immigration minister had authorized 21 Iranian men to enter the country visa-free, leaving no paper trail. I reported that other local media accounts at the time named Quds Force operatives who came in under diplomatic cover and traveled to Honduras and El Salvador. Iran and Nicaragua remain close, with Iran sending its foreign affairs minister in July 2019.

Latin America all around Nicaragua is target-rich in Americans, Israelis, embassies, and Jewish communities involved in regional commerce and diplomacy. As evidenced by El Debek’s 2011-2012 surveillance trips to Panama, these targets are of clear interest to Iran-Hezbollah. The U.S. State Department’s 2017 and 2018 Country Reports on Terrorism found that Iran-Hezbollah “continued its long history of activity” in Latin America, such as illicit smuggling and fundraising activity but also “helping to plan and support acts of terrorism.”

In Argentina, where Iran-Hezbollah agents bombed two Jewish facilities in the early 1990s, the government froze assets of 14 Hezbollah associates, some of whom had “worked closely with numerous extremists” in a free trade zone shared among Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil. In Peru, authorities arrested an apparent Unit 910 operative named Muhammad Ghaleb Hamdar for stockpiling explosives and weapons and using false documents. Operatives were found in Colombia and Venezuela. In 2017, Bolivia uncovered a Hezbollah cache of explosives.

Thanks to Trump’s vow to hit 52 identified Iran-Hezbollah targets if any Americans are killed, some foreign policy analysts predict a less-dramatic revenge attack than worst-case scenarios like this one. But so long as the world is entertaining worst-case scenarios, major U.S. journals do average Americans a disservice in so conspicuously omitting that Iran-Hezbollah has for years prepared to strike in their own hometowns. “Closer than you think,” as Suleimani said.

Todd Bensman is a Texas-based senior national security fellow for the Center for Immigration Studies and a writing fellow for the Middle East Forum. For nearly a decade, Bensman led counterterrorism-related intelligence efforts for the Texas Department of Public Safety's Intelligence and Counterterrorism Division. Follow him on Twitter @BensmanTodd. Bensman also worked for The Dallas Morning News, CBS, and Hearst Newspapers. He reported extensively on national security and border issues after 9/11 and worked from more than 25 countries in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa.

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