Mail chimp, the organization I use to send memos out, changed their format so I am making some mistakes trying to adjust and I believe I resent a memo I had previously sent by mistake. Bear with me as this old dog is confronted my new tricks.
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It is becoming increasingly evident Trump is intemperate and uses language and sends twitter messages that hurt his cause.
That said, the latest outburst episode occurred in a private meeting after he was presented with a total disregard of what he was willing to negotiate/compromise regarding DACA and then it was purposely leaked by Sen. Durbin.
I understand Trump reacted to being betrayed and was p----- but what motivated Durbin. There are several reasons I can think of, none positive.
1) Durbin saw an opportunity to drive home that Trump is a racist and he knew this would create a firestorm of criticism from all anti-Trump sources. It has and serves to perpetuate a fraudulent claim. Trump is not a racist.
2) Durbin saw an opportunity to blame Trump for failing to pass immigration changes which, of course, Democrats use as a wedge issue because they have had several opportunities to do so but have failed to act.
Why do Democrats want to maintain this wedge issue? One of the reasons is, it allows them to keep their constituents up in arms and if the immigration issue was resolved they would lose the opportunity to keep their voters corralled. I am suggesting hypocrisy. Now how could that be possible? Democrats hypocrites?
3) Democrat hypocrisy is most evident when one realizes illegal immigrants are willing to perform work other Democrat constituents do not wish to do because it is hard, does not pay well and they can remain on welfare rolls and do even better by not working.
What I am getting at is illegal immigrants keep wages low in certain work categories and this actually harms those American citizens who have less skills and this means black Americans.
Trump told Democrats straight up, and in a public forum, he is willing to resolve the DACA issue and wants three things in return. He also told them, and Republicans as well, he was willing to take the heat because he knew he would be attacked for allowing amnesty by many of his own supporters etc.
I see this as confirming Trump is a doer even when significant personal risks are involved.
4) By perpetuating the DCA issue Democrats could blame Trump, should the government shut down, because of the inability to pass more stupid continuing resolutions. If business men ran their companies like politicians run government there would be none.
What does Trump seek and what has he said he is willing to do:
a) Trump wants to shift to a merit based immigration system that focuses more on applicants who have skills we need. America does not replace its population so we need to bring in at least a million citizens each year to retain stable demographics. Russia is actually going down along with many other nations when it comes to demographics, even China.
b) Trump wants to replace chain immigration with legal immigration limited to only the closest relatives of DACA immigrants once they are offered some form of amnesty and a path to citizenship.
c) Trump wants structures to reduce future illegal immigration. If you drain the immigration swamp why would you want to allow it allow it to be refilled? Holland has walls to prevent flooding.
As I have argued, structures are self-financing so the argument, it costs money, is more Democrat hypocrisy.
Trump reached out got crap thrown in his face and went on a verbal rampage which was leaked and which reinforced the view, among those who hate him, he is a racist. Where are the reasonable minds? If they are there, when will they begin to take control of events?
I conclude, Trump does not know how to ignore bait and the last person he should trust is Dick Durbin from Chicago/Illinois. Durbin is a front man for Schumer and a partisan of the first order. He is no Dirksen! Trump should know Democrats do not want him to succeed and that means they do not want the nation to solve serious problems.
Second, Trump does know the mass media are servants for the Democrats and, therefore, also do not want him to succeed.
Why would politicians and the media not want America/Trump to succeed? Simply because they would lose power.Talk about hypocrisy.
So far, what has been accomplished during Trump's one year term in office is actually amazing. So the focus must be on painting him in negative ways, to which he provides his own pathetic contributions, not on what is happening, ie a growing economy etc.
If voters in 2018 are capable of rational reasoning results might be different, once again, than the tripe and distortions we are being given by the biased mass media. Time will tell.
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Rant explains spreads and highlights his thoughts regarding immigration which he reminds us is a privilege our nation grants. (See 1 below.)
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1)
Here are some market stats that will help you consider how to invest. I believe it will better explain why I say all equities at this moment is the best strategy. Long term, equities substantially outperform fixed income. Risk return. Keep in mind risk goes both directions. Risk of loss, and risk of missing the opportunity to make very substantial capital gains and growing your wealth by not investing in equities. Much depends on your personal situation, your appetite for risk, your personal need for cash in the short term out of your portfolio, and your view of the world and politics, and most of all your ability to be clear thinking and totally objective using the real data, and not what talking heads on CNBC or in investment letters claim they know. If you allow your political views to get in the way of objective analysis of the economy and specific companies, then you are not an intelligent investor. You have to look at data and weigh real facts and news, and not your emotional view. Whether you love Trump or hate him, is not relevant. What is the economy really doing, and what is the world economic and political situation, and the likelihood of actual policies actually being implemented in DC and states, is what matters, not what he tweets or Pelosi and Schumer bellow about. Everyone in DC lies and pontificates, so you need to look at what is actually happening, not the stupid nonsense they and the press all blather about. What is the attitude of consumers and CEO’s matters. Is consumer spending and corporate capital investment growing, are wages starting to improve. Where are rates and the dollar. As you saw, the market could not care less whether Trump did or did not use some word, or did Durbin lie again as he has in the past about what was said, in a private meeting. That is all just background noise to the market.
Index
Dow Industrial
S&P 500
Nasdaq
Russell 2000
MSCI World Index US $
MSCI Emerging Markets US $ 37.3 9.1 4.3 1.7
Bloomberg US T 5-10 yr
ICE Muni 1-10yr AAA
Bloomberg US Corp High Yield 7.5 6.4 5.8 8.0
Ice Preferred Stock
As you can easily see, the spread between equities and fixed income is very large, accounting for the tradeoff of upside and downside risks. However, keep in mind we are coming off the second worst crash in over100 years, so the upside bias is heavy due to the recovery from the trough. It may not be repeated for many years. From here we are already at record highs and ultra high PE ratios, so the downside risk from here is far greater. Flip side, the tax reform, pro business deregulation policies, combined with an all world economic recovery, has strong upside potential even at this high level. If you believe profits will really grow 12% to maybe 20% this year with the tax cuts, then there is a lot more upside. If you believe Kim is going to launch a missile at the US, there is only downside. If you buy into the Pelosi stupid comments that $1000 bonus, higher wages and lower taxes is crumbs to a person earning $55,000, then you are letting nonsense and your political emotions guide your investing strategy. If you think consumers will likely spend a little more and improve the economy with this added income, then you are being more objective. If you pay any attention to any Democrat from CA or WA, or to Elizabeth Warren or Bernie, or CNN and NBC, then good luck making money with your savings account. It is your money, so you need to do whatever works for you and your individual situation. For me, I continue to be all equities, and continue to enjoy 20% plus returns on my portfolio. The choice is yours. I do what works for me, and my point in life, my financial needs and assets, and my knowledge of finance and investing. That is probably very different than what your situation is. Be a turtle. Be happy with 9% long term and 20% short term. Stay away from Bitcoin, commodities, forex and other things you do not understand. They may have short term spectacular returns, but they also have spectacular crashes.
I do not know if Trump really said what Durbin claims, or if Durbin is lying once again about such things as he has done in the past. Likewise the tapes are not clear- did he say I’d or I in the WSJ interview regarding Kim. I suspect it was I’d as that would be totally consistent with his past comments. The press can devote hours to these things, or they can objectively report on things that really matter. Don Lemon, Jake Tapper, Chris Mathews, CA Democrats, Hollywood egomaniacs, and others can say all sorts of ridiculous and very nasty, disrespectful things about Trump, or they can run off with Oprah as their latest darling, but none of that is helpful to anything but their egos. They are no better than Trump when they say the things they say, and disparage him the way he does to others. They are all like a bunch of schoolyard brats calling each other stupid names. Trump forgets he is now president, and not in his NY real estate office with a bunch of construction or Wall St guys who would totally ignore such things. He seems to be able to continually snatch defeat from victory by opening his mouth or twitter. Just as things go really well for the Republicans, there is Trump saying or tweeting something stupid and handing the press a new way to attack him. I am sure Paul Ryan and Republican leaders are tired of having to deal with it, but I doubt much will change.
Immigration is a privilege, not a right. The UK, Canada, Australia, Japan and most other developed nations have merit based immigration rules. That is what we should have with exceptions for special circumstances like Vietnam, El Salvador, Haitian earthquakes or whatever. But these need to be special situations, not the everyday norm of chain migration and the lottery. What Trump is pushing is right in line with what most of the rest of the world already doing. That does not make him a racist.
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