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Dagny turned three today and we will be with her Friday for her birthday party.
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CHINESE WISDOM
Henry Kissinger once asked Chou En-Lai to theorize on what might have happened if Nikita Khrushchev had been assassinated instead of John F.Kennedy.
After a moment's thought, Chou En-Lai answered
==="I don't believe Mr. Onassis would have married Mrs. Khrushchev."
A compelling argument written by a Marine and sent by a dear friend and fellow memo reader. The Marine explains, from his perspective, why America is on the down slope and possibly not going to recover. SEMPER FI! (See 1 below.)
This is also from a dear friend and fellow memo reader: "I am not your constituent, but am writing as a citizen regarding your Select Committee on Benghazi and Ms. Clinton's emails.
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Since she refuses to surrender her server, please consider a subpoena of the NSA metadata on Ms. Clinton's personal email accounts. A simple comparison of the metadata and the emails she surrendered will reveal whether she surrendered all official emails.
We all know the NSA collects metadata on phone calls and emails. If Ms. Clinton's metadata reveals a gap between emails received/sent and the emails she surrendered, then you have hard evidence, not just suspicions. "
Whenever I rn across and article by Arnaud de Borchgrave, I would post it because I thought he was a bright man with an even brighter view point. He passed away recently and I came across this eulogy. (See 2 below.)
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I have belonged to AIPAC for well over 40 years and was encouraged to join by former Sen. Sam Nunn.
AIPAC exists to strengthen the relationship between America and Israel. It is not a PAC and is non-partisan.
To offset AIPAC , J Street was formed by Jews of a more anti-Zionist liberal persuasion, who maintain an antipathy towards Israel and AIPAC's success. In my opinion, J Streeters are misguided wimps.
Zionists believe Jews are entitled to have a nation called Israel. I agree, as did Harry Truman and The U.N. before that pitiful organization came under the spell and control of Arabs and Muslim nations.
This was sent to me by a friend and fellow memo reader. (See 3 below.)
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What factions are picking over Syria's remains? (See 4 below.)
and
What is going on with ISIS. Several articles (See 4a, 4b and 4c below.)
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This is a fascinating report sent to me by a very close friend, a fellow memo reader who recently returned from Israel. He forwarded an e mail analysis from his friend who has great insight into the Israel election which takes place Tuesday. He also sent a second analysis (in blue) for comparative purposes.
This is a MUST READ. (See 5 below.)
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Dick
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1) Not easy reading here, but please read it slowly and mindfully. So true...and it hurts so bad. I can't find fault with any of it. I'm passing it along as it was received. Unfortunately, there are those who will not only disagree with this Marine, but also, not even comprehend the merits of his words!
"Time is like a river. You cannot touch the water twice, because the flow that has passed will never pass again." Written by a USMC Vet.
He wrote:
The American Dream ended (on November 6th, 2012) in Ohio. The second term of Barack Obama will be the final nail in the coffin for the legacy of the white Christian males who discovered, explored, pioneered, settled and developed the greatest Republic in the history of mankind.
A coalition of Blacks, Latinos, Feminists, Gays, Government Workers, Union Members, Environmental Extremists, The Media, Hollywood, uninformed young people, the "forever needy," the chronically unemployed, illegal aliens and other "fellow travelers" have ended Norman Rockwell's America. The Cocker Spaniel is off the front porch... The Pit Bull is in the back yard. The American Constitution has been replaced with Saul Alinsky's "Rules for Radicals" and Chicago shyster, David Axelrod, along with international Socialist George Soros, are pulling the strings on their beige puppet to bring us Act 2 of the New World Order.
Our side ran two candidates who couldn't even win their own home states, and Chris Christie helped Obama over the top with a glowing "post Sandy" tribute that elevated the "Commander-in-Chief" to Mother Teresa status. (Aside: with the way the polls were run, he didn't need any help!) People like me are completely politically irrelevant, and I will never again comment on or concern myself with the aforementioned coalition which has surrendered our culture, our heritage and our traditions without a shot being fired.
You will never again out-vote these people. It will take individual acts of defiance and massive displays of civil disobedience to get back the rights we have allowed them to capture. It will take Zealots, not moderates & shy not reach-across-the-aisle RINOs to right this ship and restore our beloved country to its former status.
Those who come after us will have to risk their lives, their fortunes and their sacred honor to bring back the Republic that this generation has timidly frittered away due to "white guilt" and political correctness...
An American Veteran......... Semper-Fi
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2) Arnaud de Borchgrave, a Tribute
The following were remarks I gave at a special memorial service held in honor of Arnaud de Borchgrave on March 9, 2015, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Arnaud passed away on Feb. 15, 2015.
What drives a person to give practically his whole life for his country? I never asked that question to Arnaud de Borchgrave.
I first met Arnaud when I was a young man in my early 20s. I was visiting my sister in Palm Beach one winter, and I noticed an ad in the Palm Beach Post announcing a public forum to hear the famed editor Arnaud de Borchgrave.
I remember arriving to a local auditorium. The place was packed. Before Arnaud spoke, the local high school marching band came out on stage in full regalia, music blaring.
I thought to myself, Are journalists usually announced by marching bands? Well, I soon discovered Arnaud was no normal journalist.
After I started in my own journalism career, our paths would cross, and Arnaud soon became a friend and mentor. When I founded Newsmax, which started from very small beginnings, Arnaud quickly volunteered his name to help, and he became a founding board member.
2) Arnaud de Borchgrave, a Tribute
The following were remarks I gave at a special memorial service held in honor of Arnaud de Borchgrave on March 9, 2015, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Arnaud passed away on Feb. 15, 2015.
What drives a person to give practically his whole life for his country? I never asked that question to Arnaud de Borchgrave.
I first met Arnaud when I was a young man in my early 20s. I was visiting my sister in Palm Beach one winter, and I noticed an ad in the Palm Beach Post announcing a public forum to hear the famed editor Arnaud de Borchgrave.
I remember arriving to a local auditorium. The place was packed. Before Arnaud spoke, the local high school marching band came out on stage in full regalia, music blaring.
I thought to myself, Are journalists usually announced by marching bands? Well, I soon discovered Arnaud was no normal journalist.
After I started in my own journalism career, our paths would cross, and Arnaud soon became a friend and mentor. When I founded Newsmax, which started from very small beginnings, Arnaud quickly volunteered his name to help, and he became a founding board member.
When I moved from New York to West Palm in the late 1990s, I had the good fortune to see Arnaud and his wife Alexandra during their frequent trips to Florida.
It was always special. Upon their arriving in town, we’d typically meet at Taboo, Palm Beach’s very own version of Rick’s Café American.
There Arnaud would hold court, drinking his traditional bull shot. One time, he asked how I discovered him and Alexandra sitting in a dark corner. “Easy,” I said. “I Just asked the maitre d where I could find a beautiful young lady sitting with her grandfather.”
Arnaud loved it. He had a self-deprecating sense of humor for sure, but he also came up with some great lines.
Looking back, I think humor was an anesthetic for Arnaud. He had witnessed great suffering during the long sweep of his life. He fled Nazi occupied Belgium, and much of his family was wiped out in the Holocaust. He arrived in England, lied about his age, and at 16, joined the Royal Navy. On D-Day he was wounded on Juno Beach.
He saw the carnage on those beaches, and more terrible things in 16 wars he covered as a journalist, including Vietnam when he was with a Marine battalion that was ambushed at Hill 400 near the Demilitarized Zone. He was wounded by a mortar, but many other Marines were not lucky enough to escape death that day.
Arnaud was undaunted and relentless and always a truth seeker. During his career he continually said things that did not make people happy — when he reported on the unfolding U.S. disaster in Vietnam or the failure to grasp the Soviet threat or the limits of U.S. policy after invading Iraq.
He never aimed his remarks for Republicans or Democrats, he just told it as he saw it.
Arnaud represented something missing today in our policy debates. A vision of the world not based on rigid ideological thinking, but on wide open lenses that capture the world as it is.
Still this question keeps coming back to me: What kind of person would spend his whole life to benefit his countrymen?
It was 1999 and Arnaud was 72 years of age. There he was in Belgrade, head of UPI, blindfolded and being bounced around in cars and safe houses to get his exclusive interview with Milosevic.
Or we can remember in his early 80s Arnaud opening up the first door to Gadhafi for a new relationship with the U.S. Or again in his 80s, going out daily for 20-mile practice hikes to prepare for his trek though the Pakistani mountains to meet Mullah Omar.
Thankfully, his legacy of truth telling will not end. Tom Sanderson, his protégé at CSIS will carry the torch admirably. And so will his beloved Alexandra and her Light of Healing Hope Foundation, which Arnaud was so proud of.
I recall one of our last long, liquid lunches at Taboo. The question of faith came up. We had never talked about religion much. Arnaud asked me if I believed in God.
I told him I did, and strongly. He seemed quite surprised.
He told me he didn’t believe in God and even less in religion. He shared some negative personal experiences he had. So I asked him what he did believe in. “Well, I believe in the big bang,” he said. “What do you mean, the big bang?” I asked.
“You know, 20 billion years ago the big bang happened, and we’re here today,” he said. A philosophical discussion followed. I won’t bore you with the details.
Suffice it to say, that after this conversation I would frequently end our visits together by saying, “Arnaud, may the big bang bless you.”
Whether Arnaud actually believed in God or the big bang is probably not so important.
Because he did believe in what God is, love. Love is the guiding power of the universe, and saw it in his love for Alexandra, for his country, for us.
I never really needed to ask Arnaud what drove him. The answer was always there. The love he felt, that sustained him, that he shared with us.
So Arnaud I have one last message for you: I have no doubt that when you finally met the big bang he had a marching band there for you.
And it still plays, my friend.
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So Arnaud I have one last message for you: I have no doubt that when you finally met the big bang he had a marching band there for you.
And it still plays, my friend.
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3)How J Street Misled Obama Into Netanyahu Speech Debacle
By Moshe Phillips & Benyamin Korn
Who misled President Obama into his losing showdown over Prime Minister Netanyahu’s blockbuster speech to Congress?
And how much of this week’s setback to the President should be blamed on the “progressive” Israel lobbying group J Street?
When J Street was established, its leaders chose a football metaphor to describe their purpose: they said they would serve as “President Obama’s blocking back.” In other words, they would charge into the defensive line, pushing aside critics so that Obama would be able to dictate terms to Israel. But as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech to Congress demonstrates, J Street has instead misled the president–and the White House should draw a lesson from the experience.
J Street officials make no secret of their access to the White House. There can be no doubt that when the president and his aides were considering how to respond to John Boehner’s invitation to Netanyahu to address Congress, they consulted the J Streeters. And this is where the bad advice began.
Clearly, President Obama came to the conclusion that sufficient pressure on Netanyahu would cause the Israeli leader to cave, and to cancel his speech. It defies logic to think that the president would have forged ahead with such a nasty anti-Netanyahu campaign if he thought the effort was likely to fail. He would not want to risk all the damage to his relationship with American Jewish voters, not to mention the millions of others of Israel supporters, if he didn’t feel sure he was going to win. He would not want to risk turning the speech into a much bigger deal than it would otherwise have been.
It is not hard to imagine the arguments that J Street’s leaders must have made to White House officials. “We know Bibi–he always caves into pressure” …”We’re Jews–we understand the American Jewish community” … “Some of us have lived in Israel–we know how the Israeli psyche works” … “Netanyahu has given in before –he froze settlements, he said he would accept some version of a Palestinian state–he’ll give in again.”
And so began a carefully calibrated campaign of gradually ratcheting up the pressure on Israel’s prime minister.
First, accusations that Netanyahu had “insulted” the president and “breached protocol.” Neither of those claims were true, but pretending to be a victim is often a useful tactic.
Then, a flurry of attacks on Israel’s ambassador in Washington, featuring brutish comments from prominent current or former State Department officials who happen to be Jewish, such as Daniel Kurtzer and Martin Indyk.
Next: comments from Democrat congressional leaders, such as Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, hinting that they might boycott the speech. In the end, neither Reid nor Pelosi did boycott, but their early comments sowed seeds of tension.
When these attacks didn’t seem to gain traction, the assault intensified. They trotted out National Security Adviser Susan Rice to accuse Netanyahu of “destroying” American-Israeli relations.
But Rice’s over-the-top remarks didn’t resonate, either. So they began rounding up minor Democratic congressmen to pledge they would boycott Israel’s prime minister. Although each new addition to the list generated a headline or two, in the end, the boycott was a complete flop, and more than 90% of senators, and more than 90% of House members, attended.
J Street tried one last, desperate gambit: they invested large sums of money in a series of television ads that claimed Prime Minister Netanyahu would use footage of his speech in Israeli election campaign commercials. It was a curious coincidence that simultaneously with the airing of the ads, a Minnesota Congress member, Betty McCollumm, made the exact same argument–and so did a Kentucky congressman, John Yarmuth, in his remarks on Fox TV after the speech. It sounded as if they were all reading from the same page of talking points.
Most telling, perhaps, was the fact that the ads continued to air on television throughout the afternoon after the speech. In other words, J Street was so obsessed, so filled with loathing for Israel’s leader, that they did not even have the good taste or common sense to stop the ads once the speech had taken place.
So in the end it was precisely this passion, this pathological loathing for Netanyahu, that caused J Street to so badly mislead the president, to convince him that Netanyahu would collapse or that a large part of Congress members would stay away. In the end, Netanyahu did not bend, and the White House could not get even more than a small minority of its own base –the Democrats in Congress– to boycott. That’s because, despite its best efforts, J Street cannot change the fact that an overwhelming number of members of Congress, and most of the American public, Jews and Christians alike, strongly support Israel and its democratically-elected leaders. That is an obstacle that J Street failed to help Obama to overcome.
The Netanyahu speech was a huge victory for Israel and its friends, and a stinging loss for the Obama administration and J Street. If the administration is wise, it will think twice before again letting J Street lead it down the road of defeat and embarrassment.
Moshe Phillips is president and Benyamin Korn is chairman of the Religious Zionists of America, Philadelphia, and both are candidates on the Religious Zionist slate (www.VoteTorah.org) in the World Zionist Congress elections.
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4)
Four Rival Factions Pick Over Syria's Bones
ANOTHER RESULT OF A U.S GOVERNMENT WITH NO PLAN......CHALK UP ANOTHER FAILURE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.BILL ROHLFS.....FLORIDA
by Jonathan Spyer
In the latest blow to supporters of the "moderate" elements among the Syrian rebels, the Harakat Hazm "Movement of Determination" last week announced that it was disbanding.
Hazm was never a large group. It never possessed more than around 5,000 fighters and was active only in northwest Syria. But for a period of time, it was held up by those who supported arming the Sunni Arab rebels as the kind of militia that the U.S. and the west could get behind.
It had ties neither to the Salafi jihadists nor to the Muslim Brotherhood. Nor was it given to the kind of open and florid corruption favored by some of the other "secular" groupings in Syria's north.
As a result, Hazm was the recipient of a number of U.S.-made BGM-71 (TOW) anti-tank missiles in the spring of 2014.
Its demise comes in the same week that the U.S. plan for beginning a program to train and equip a force that will fight the Islamic State is set to commence. The timing is not auspicious.
Hazm's act of self-destruction appears to be an act of capitulation, undertaken in response to threats from the powerful Jabhat al-Nusra militia, and the capture by the latter of its headquarters. Nusra, the Syrian franchise of al Qaeda, is in the process of solidifying its control over northwest Syria. In so doing, it is slowly isolating and swallowing up these smaller fry.
Among Nusra's recent victims are a number of elements that once featured large in western hopes for the rebellion.
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Among the victims are a number of elements that once featured large in western hopes for the rebellion. In late October, Nusra destroyed the Syrian Revolutionaries Front of Jamal Ma'arouf. Ma'arouf had a fair run enriching himself as a petty warlord in his native Jebel Zawiya region, making deals with regime garrisons and smuggling across the border into Turkey. In late 2014, the jihadis took him on and soon it was over.
Nusra and Hazm then clashed in February. Hazm sought refuge by joining the Jabhat al-Shamiyah (Levant Front), a coalition of rebel groups in the northwest supported by Turkey.
However, in recent days, Nusra continued to issue accusations that Hazm was guilty of the murder of a number of Nusra fighters. The Levant Front, meanwhile, made it clear that it would not stand between the two groups if Nusra attacked Hazm. And that appears to have been that. Left exposed without the help of its new friends, Hazm quietly took itself out of existence.
This not very uplifting tale nevertheless contains within it a number of lessons.
As of now, what constitutes the rebellion in northwest Syria is Nusra, plus the Salafi Islamic Front, plus the Levant Front, whose most significant members are also Sunni Islamist. But it is the jihadists of Nusra that are the key element.
In the longer term, it may well be Nusra that establishes itself as the key armed group representing Syria's Sunni Arabs.
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Jabhat al Nusra receives less media attention than the rival jihadi group, Islamic State. Nusra has not declared the area it controls to be a sovereign state, much less a "caliphate.' But in the longer term, it may well be Nusra that establishes itself as the key armed group representing Syria's Sunni Arabs. There are number of signs that the smartest local players are seeing the situation in these terms.
Israel turns a public blind eye to the prominent role played by Nusra among the rebels in south west Syria. The Jewish state is determined to prevent either the Assad regime/Iran/Hezbollah or the Islamic State from gaining a foothold along the border with the Golan Heights.
Privately, Israeli officials are well aware that there is no clear dividing line between Nusra and the rest of the rebellion in the southwest. Indeed, Nusra is one of the most active elements when there is fighting to be done.
As a result, Israel has made its pragmatic peace with the presence of the jihadists. Presumably, Israel sees no alternative to accepting their presence if it wishes to keep both the Iranians and IS from the border. There are voices within the Israeli system that are well aware of the dangers lurking along this road. It is safe to assume that Israel will venture no further down it than it perceives to be absolutely necessary. But it is testimony to the extent that Nusra has made its presence a fait accompli in the southwest of Syria no less than it is in the northwest, where it has just swallowed the hapless Hazm militia.
Walid Jumblatt, Druze leader in Lebanon, is a good figure to watch if you want to know the direction of the winds at any given moment in the Levant. Jumblatt always knows to make his peace with rising forces, and to oppose weakening ones, in the classic survival strategy of his Druze people.
There are now four serious
forces on the ground in Syria: the Iran/Hezbollah/Assad side, the Islamic State, the Kurds, and Jabhat al-Nusra.
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Five days ago, Jumblatt in an interview with a regional newspaper reiterated earlier statements according to which he does not consider Nusra to be a terrorist organization. The latest reports suggest that he may also be negotiating with Nusra over the fate of a very small Druze community in northwest Syria.
What is the significance of all this? It is the following. As of today, there are four serious forces on the ground in Syria. They are the Iran/Hezbollah/Assad side, the Islamic State, the Kurds, and Jabhat al-Nusra. What used to be Syria is divided between them.
This is the unpleasant reality to which prudent local players are adapting, after making their own careful calculation of their interests.
Bigger powers which could change this reality, meanwhile, appear to be flailing in every direction. The U.S. "train and equip program," which aims to put 15,000 men in the field against the Islamic State over the next three years, is unlikely to make much of a difference to the picture. Indeed, given the clear tendency among the rebels to favor Sunni Islamism, it seems quite likely that the U.S. is about to begin arming Sunni Islamists in Syria, even as it gives air support to their rival Shia Islamists in Iraq.
Jonathan Spyer is a senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
4a)
The U.S. and U.K. are putting together cyber-forces to take on the jihadists. But governments aren’t very good at this stuff. Just ask Christopher Cornell in Ohio.
It is the jailhouse interview his attorney wishes like hell he’d never made. For one long hour would-be jihadist Christopher Cornell outlined to an Ohio TV station in chilling detail what he would have done if the FBI had not arrested him in January.
He had bought two semiautomatic rifles and hundreds of rounds of ammunition from a Cincinnati-area gun store. Speaking from his jail cell in Kentucky, the all-American kid unrepentantly told WXIX-TV Fox 19: “I would have put it to Obama’s head, I would have pulled the trigger, then I would unleash more bullets on the Senate and House of Representative members, and I would have attacked the Israeli embassy and various other buildings. They might say I’m a terrorist, but you know we see American troops as terrorists as well, coming to our land, stealing our resources and killing our people, raping our women. We’re more organized than you think.”
By “our lands,” this convert to what he thinks of as Islam means Muslim lands, or, more precisely, the lands conquered by the so-called Islamic State, or ISIS.
Some of Cornell’s frightening rant was broadcast late Friday as his lawyer appealed to a judge to stop the airing of the interview on the grounds it could prejudice his trial. In the end, the appeal failed on Sunday, and it is worth listening closely to what Cornell had to say.
Deluded he may be but Cornell, described by his father shortly after his arrest as a good kid and lost, shares the characteristics of many of the Americans and Europeans radicalized online by jihadists—mental instability and a sense of being marginalized. But understanding that about them does not make them any less dangerous.
As de-radicalization experts and psychologists grapple with the mindset of young Westerners lured into jihadist ranks, there is still no consensus among Western counter-terrorism experts on how to combat the jihadists’ sophisticated use of the Internet and their skill in radicalizing, grooming, and recruiting.
“They are monitoring suspicious websites and social media, cyber-attacking others, and planting bogus information.”
And that includes whether Western governments should be pressuring Internet companies to suspend social media accounts and whether reducing jihadist access to cyberspace will help or hinder de-radicalization. There is also concern that shutting down jihadist access to the Web, even if it were possible, could cripple efforts to gather intelligence about the organizations and the individuals involved.
And that includes whether Western governments should be pressuring Internet companies to suspend social media accounts and whether reducing jihadist access to cyberspace will help or hinder de-radicalization. There is also concern that shutting down jihadist access to the Web, even if it were possible, could cripple efforts to gather intelligence about the organizations and the individuals involved.
While the confusion reins, foreign volunteers—from fighters to jihadi brides—continue to head to Syria and Iraq; and lone wolves—or what some experts prefer to describe as stray dogs—are inspired to act.
On Sunday, police arrested a Spanish-Moroccan woman in Barcelona on suspicion she was running a major recruitment ring for the Islamic State, widely known as ISIS or ISIL, after Turkish authorities arrested her on the border with Syria, returning her to Spain.
Her arrest came as jihadist sources confirmed that three British schoolgirls who flew without being challenged from a London airport last month had crossed into Syria close to the Turkish town of Urfa. They are now in the Raqqa home of Aqsa Mahmood, a 21-year-old Glaswegian jihadist who appears to be one of ISIS’s best female recruiters. She had groomed at least one of the girls online—despite U.K. intelligence services monitoring her social media accounts since she fled Scotland a year ago.
U.S. officials say only about a hundred Americans have traveled to Syria so far but admit the trickle of recruits from the U.S. to overseas jihadist groups has quickened in recent months. For intelligence officials in the U.S. the bigger worry is the potential influence that online jihadist propaganda can have encouraging vulnerable recruits directly or indirectly to mount lone-wolf attacks or gang together in Charlie -Hebdo-style wolf pack assaults.
For months ISIS has been mounting an online drumbeat exhorting followers who can’t make the trip to Syria not to sit out the war. “If you are able to kill an American or European infidel,” ISIS pronounces in one notorious audio message posted online, “particularly any of the hostile, impure Frenchmen—or an Australian or a Canadian…Do not consult anyone and do not seek a fatwa from anyone. It is immaterial if the infidel is a combatant or a civilian. Their sentence is one; they are both infidels, both enemies.”
But critics fear there is still little being done to turn back what the jihadists like to call their “invasions” of Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and their Arabic equivalents. Despite President Obama recognizing more than three years ago the threat posed by digital jihadist recruiters and propagandists, there has been no rollout by the administration of a promised strategy “for countering and preventing violent online extremism.”
Instead, last autumn the administration launched with great fanfare, but seemingly little study, a social media offensive against ISIS and al-Qaeda aimed at ridiculing the militants’ sophisticated messaging with blunt sarcasm. The news of the initiative made headlines — as it was meant to in a crafted PR offensive by administration aides—but doubts have persisted since about the effectiveness of the offensive and whether the State Department is the right messenger.
Part of the problem, say critics, is there appears to be no one in charge and a variety of agencies, from the National Security Agency, the Department of Defense, the CIA, the FBI, the Defense Intelligence Agency, as well as private contractors are mounting their different fight-backs with little coordination and few blueprints.
“They are monitoring suspicious websites and social media, cyber-attacking others, and planting bogus information,” says Gabriel Weimann, professor of communication at Israel’s Haifa University. “The virtual war between terrorists and counterterrorism forces and agencies is vital, dynamic, and ferocious,” he adds in a report for the Wilson Center, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.
Ferocious it might be but Western online counter-radicalization efforts to date, say critics, are amateurish, lack a clear understanding of the mentality of the jihadi propagandists and their potential recruits, and are unclear about objectives, how to reach them, or even how to evaluate success. Ferocious is no substitute for viral on the Internet: the kind of contagious enthusiasm, horrifying though it may be, that infects much of the jihadist discourse.
The British are now launching an effort modeled on the State Department’s, announcing in January that the British army is to form a 1,500-strong “crack team of social media specialists” to focus on non-lethal psychological operations and the use of social networks to counter propaganda peddled effectively by organizations like ISIS. To respond to doubts being cast on whether the military is best-equipped for the task, army chiefs have been citing the movie The Imitation Game, a recent British blockbuster about Second World War code breakers, arguing it shows what is possible when thoughtful minds from different social backgrounds are harnessed.
So far the biggest advance in setting up the crack cyber-force has been to get rid of crusty old-school generals who demanded that the young agile minds recruited should also be physically fit enough to complete basic infantry training—a test that was also waived for the boffins of wartime Bletchley Park.
But breaking secret codes such as Germany’s Enigma is a different art from countering the jihadists’ complex use of the Internet for a variety of objectives—from propaganda to the grooming and recruitment of volunteers, from fundraising to operational purposes such as sharing tactical information and whipping up psychological warfare.
“Counter-terrorism is certainly lingering behind terrorists’ manipulative use of the new channels,” warns Weimann at Haifa University. “Despite the growth of Internet research in recent years, it has not yet provided efficient strategies or fruitful countermeasure devices or tactics.”
Consensus is also elusive on whether the best approach should include pressure on Western Internet companies to suspend jihadist social media accounts. Western governments haven’t been slow to criticize Twitter and other social media giants for allowing jihadists to use their platforms. British Prime Minister David Cameron has been at the forefront, saying Internet firms should be doing more to tackle online extremism by suspending social media accounts.
But that could result in a tremendous loss of useful information in the fight against the Islamic State. “If every single ISIS supporter disappeared from Twitter tomorrow, it would represent a staggering loss of intelligence—assuming that intelligence is in fact being mined effectively by someone somewhere,” argue analysts J.M. Berger and Jonathon Morgan in a study published Friday for Brookings, a U.S. think tank, called “The ISIS Twitter Census.”
The report garnered media coverage at the weekend for its estimate that last autumn the followers of the terror group had over 46,000 and possibly as many as 90,000 accounts on Twitter, which has become the main social media hub for ISIS, allowing it to disseminate links to digital content hosted on other online platforms.
The authors argued, “By virtue of its large number of supporters and highly organized tactics, ISIS has been able to exert an out sized impact on how the world perceives it, by disseminating images of graphic violence (including the beheading of Western journalists and aid workers, and more recently, the immolation of a Jordanian air force pilot), while using social media to attract new recruits and inspire lone actor attacks.”
But the authors maintain that Twitter’s aggressive suspension of jihadist accounts in recent weeks—a policy that has earned the threat of retaliation against the company’s executives by the terror group—could well be counter-productive. A total suspension, they say, could have unintended consequences. Not only would it deny intelligence agencies useful operational and tactical information, they fear, it could speed up radicalization by channeling potential recruits and lone wolves like Cornell into segregated ISIS Internet channels.
That, they maintain, would reduce any possibility of moderating influences being brought to bear by the intelligence services and de-radicalizing experts on potential recruits. But such sophisticated efforts seem a long way from being applied.
4b)
Teaming up with Boko Haram was just the start. ISIS is extending its reach around the planet. Here’s how they're doing it. Boko Haram isn’t about to become a mere extension of ISIS, despite a purported pledge allegiance to the self-proclaimed Islamic State this weekend.
Instead, ISIS is likely to offer resources, training, and its brand so the Nigerian terror group can create a distinct province within an Islamic caliphate, experts and U.S. officials told The Daily Beast. It’s a model that ISIS is increasingly adopting as it attempts to spread its reach around the planet.
Boko Haram leader Abubaker Shekau has embraced ISIS tactics and even the religious dress of its leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in the last year. But Shekau is also a control freak, experts said. That means he’s unlikely to allow micromanaging from ISIS leaders thousands of miles away, U.S. officials told The Daily Beast.
Boko Haram “is reluctant to be subsumed to another group,” one government official explained to The Daily Beast. This isn’t the first time Shekau’s outfit has allegedly cast its lot with an outside terror organization. “We usually see them pledging allegiance when they need something or want something.”
And right now, they need something. After a series of recent setbacks, Boko Haram could use ISIS’s help finessing its messaging, developing its terror tactics and sowing fear in Nigeria by adopting the ISIS name. Such sharing only needs a few ISIS fighters offering guidance. Because of that, the most important immediate question in the face of the purported allegiance is whether ISIS fighters start to travel to Nigeria from places like Iraq, Syria, and Libya.
So far, “we have seen no operational linkages,” Army Colonel Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman, said Monday.
“Rather than trying to expand [like al Qaeda] from the center, the Islamic State is mushrooming all over the place.”
While U.S. officials have been telegraphing a possible ISIS-Boko Haram team-up for more than a month, on Monday they were quick to say that the announcement should not be exaggerated; so far, there is no evidence of direct communication or money changing hands. But Boko Haram is not short on cash, having gained millions though kidnappings for ransoms, looting of cities and selling weapons procured from overrun Nigerian military forces.
While U.S. officials have been telegraphing a possible ISIS-Boko Haram team-up for more than a month, on Monday they were quick to say that the announcement should not be exaggerated; so far, there is no evidence of direct communication or money changing hands. But Boko Haram is not short on cash, having gained millions though kidnappings for ransoms, looting of cities and selling weapons procured from overrun Nigerian military forces.
Rather, both sides stand to gain quite a bid for a relatively small price. For the Islamic State, embracing Boko Haram allows it to seemingly extend its grip. For Boko Haram, which in recent weeks lost momentum and control of a number of towns to a multinational force, the purported fealty to al-Baghdadi may be an attempt to instill terror in the civilians in the areas the group retains.
Such an allegiance could also encourage ISIS fighters who find it increasingly difficult to travel from north Africa to places like Iraq and Syria to move south instead, J. Peter Pham, director of the Africa Center at the Washington-based Atlantic Council, explained to The Daily Beast.
Boko Haram has made connections to outside jihadi groups before. There were reports as early as 2010 that Boko Haram pledged an alliance with al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, but the degree of cooperation was always opaque. Either way, in that case it appeared the al Qaeda branch tried unsuccessfully to foist its vision on the group.
During Boko Haram’s purported relationship with al Qaeda, “there was never anything formal publicly. There were only rumors and signs of training. This announcement is a lot more overt,” said Aaron Zelin, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Affairs who studies jihadi movements.
Boko Haram is the latest of about a dozen terror groups to claim allegiance to ISIS, and a pattern is beginning to emerge in how ISIS treats such relationships. It’s very different from the al Qaeda model.
Al Qeada once sought to create the protocol for franchising a jihadi movement. But that group sought to create furtive links with groups and demanded strict adherence to its brand of jihadism.
ISIS, on the other hand, appears more flexible. Groups like Boko Haram and Libya’s Islamic Youth Shura Council, which pledged allegiance to ISIS on June 22, have been allowed to embrace tactics and brand in ways that allows them to flesh out their vision for a province within an ISIS-led caliphate.
“Rather than trying to expand [like al Qeada] from the center, the Islamic State is mushrooming all over the place,” Pham said. “There may not be conducting tactical command day-to-day, but they’re certainly going to have tighter command on messaging and strategy.”
Or as Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com and longtime student of the relationship between ISIS and Libyan jihadist groups, explained, after a group pledges allegiance, ISIS fighters move in and offer “something like a jihadi startup kit.”
Perhaps the best example of this is Libya’s Islamic Youth Shura Council, based out of the city of Derna. In the weeks leading up to its pledge of allegiance, the Shura Council revamped its online presence to mirror the ISIS campaign. Two months ago, Boko Haram transformed its rudimentary online presence into a flashy ISIS-like display. And as The Daily Beast reported in January, there appeared to be increasing ties between the Boko Haram and ISIS, particularly on media operations and tactics.
Like Boko Haram, the Shura Council was not short on cash. Rather, after swearing its loyalty, evidence emerged that fighters were traveling to Libya and offering terror tactics. Moreover, Libyans fighting on behalf of ISIS in Iraq and Syria were allowed to come home and share their lessons with local counterparts, Pack said.
And in both in Derna and Nigeria, the groups both have a very local agenda.
“They admire ISIS,” Pack said. “They want to be like ISIS. That doesn’t mean they want to be ISIS or take orders from ISIS.”
Three months after pledging its allegiance to ISIS, the Shura Council announced that its territory in Derna was now part of the Islamic State, suggesting an ongoing pairing with the two groups
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4c)
The U.S. government is finding that in addition to fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on the ground, it must also fend off the growing threat of ISIS online.
The jihadist group has proven adept at outreach to teens who are fluent in digital communication. Last week the FBI and Homeland Security Department issued a joint alert warning that ISIS's message is increasingly resonant with Western youth.
The alert advised local and state law enforcement agencies that ISIS has been having some success with social media campaigns that invite youth to join jihadists for the fight in Syria.” The concern is that you have a message that is proving romantic, heroic and alluring to a swath of the western population that's dangerous,” said CBS News Senior National Security Analyst Juan Zarate. “The messages that are out there are really messages not just to local law enforcement but to communities and families to be on the lookout and to be vigilant about the potential that their youth are being drawn like the Pied Piper to this movement in the Middle East.”
In recent months, there have been regular reports of teenagers fleeing their homes in places like Colorado and England to travel to Syria to join the ISIS fight, or to marry its fighters. Just last week, a high school student from Northern Virginia was taken into custody because authorities believed he helped a man travel to Syria to fight with ISIS.
A recent report from SITE Intelligence Group details how ISIS has moved beyond the typical password-protected jihadist forums and now operates on Twitter, YouTube, Tumblr, Ask.fm and other social media sites. The three suburban Denver girls who tried to join ISIS communicated directly with its recruiters.
During a speech to the Brookings Institution last fall, National Counterterrorism Center Director Matthew Olsen said that ISIS “operates the most sophisticated propaganda machine of any extremist group.”
“ISIL disseminates timely, high-quality media content on multiple platforms, including on social media, designed to secure a widespread following for the group,” he said.
It has become a top concern for law enforcement officials. “You have the Islamic State using all forms of media and outreach to include peer-to-peer social media outreach to the youth to try to draw them to the fight,” Zarate said.
“This isn't just about going to fight apostates or to right oppressors or occupiers. This is about a broader project, [the] establishment of an Islamic caliphate, that holds some allure to those who want to see a pure form of Islam and are willing to draw themselves into this heroic and romantic cause,” he added.
The White House turned its attention to violent extremism last month with a summit that brought together governments, civil society groups and community leaders from more than 60 nations to talk about ways to combat the threat.
Meryl Chertoff, who heads the Justice & Society program at the Aspen Institute penned an op-ed in The Hill about what she learned at the summit about the jihadi recruitment process–“scary stuff,” she called it. There are, she wrote, social media tools “pairing the incipient recruit online with the fighter of their choice, and then sending them to Sharespot or Kick to allow the grooming to continue out of the reach of standard internet tracking tools, which can lead to mobilization in a matter of weeks.”
In the past, the U.S. has tried using Islamic rap groups to help counter extremists, and Tweeting to undercut extremist messages.
Since the summit, Zarate said, there has been a commitment to more resources to attack the ISIS narrative online and amplify the credible voices that are trying to counter the movement.
But will any of it make a difference? Zarate isn't exactly sure.”Are we able to inoculate youth and those who would otherwise be susceptible to the message from the allure of what the ISIS folks and the propagandists are selling?” He suggests that their appeal is surprisingly broad. “[E]ven among non-Muslims you see some polling numbers, for example in France, where there is an allure to the Islamic state, an allure of the romanticism of what they are building and I think that's part of the ideological battle in addition to the theology that's hard to combat.”
Part of what is so dangerous for western youth also lies in what they don't know. Secretary of State John Kerry, addressing the White House summit, put it this way: “Those recruiting for [ISIS] are not looking for people who are devout and knowledgeable about the tenants of Islam,” Secretary of State John Kerry said at the summit. “They're looking for people gullible enough to believe that terrorists enjoy a glamorous lifestyle.
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5)Having just gotten back from Israel and being briefed on the intricacies of forming a coalition from two Israeli pollsters i thought it a good idea to forward an email from a very informed friend. It is important to focus on the Arab MK's. They have vowed not to join any coalition, so therefore the magic number while still 61 takes the number of eligible MK's to form a coalition from 120-13 to 107. It makes the math much harder for the opposition, although i have been reading the polls are swinging away from Bibi. We were warned by the pollsters they are often very wrong because many Israeli's make up there mind in the closing days. This may hurt the current prime minister. The question is how badly. Last election Yaer Lapid's party was projected to get at most 12 seats and ended up with 19. Welcome to Israeli politics. Even with that surge, Bibi was able to cobble together a coalition without the ultra orthodox MK's. This time the winner, in my opinion, will need to deal with the ultra orthodox to get a coalition. We will see if Herzog wins the largest majority of MK's can he get to the magic 61.
I am also pasting below this analysis another point of view (in blue) which I believe is important to read below the first.
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5)Having just gotten back from Israel and being briefed on the intricacies of forming a coalition from two Israeli pollsters i thought it a good idea to forward an email from a very informed friend. It is important to focus on the Arab MK's. They have vowed not to join any coalition, so therefore the magic number while still 61 takes the number of eligible MK's to form a coalition from 120-13 to 107. It makes the math much harder for the opposition, although i have been reading the polls are swinging away from Bibi. We were warned by the pollsters they are often very wrong because many Israeli's make up there mind in the closing days. This may hurt the current prime minister. The question is how badly. Last election Yaer Lapid's party was projected to get at most 12 seats and ended up with 19. Welcome to Israeli politics. Even with that surge, Bibi was able to cobble together a coalition without the ultra orthodox MK's. This time the winner, in my opinion, will need to deal with the ultra orthodox to get a coalition. We will see if Herzog wins the largest majority of MK's can he get to the magic 61.
I am also pasting below this analysis another point of view (in blue) which I believe is important to read below the first.
D----
First Analysis:
2d Analysis:
”Shalom friends and family,
Well, it's been almost 2 years so I guess it is time for elections here again in the State of Israel. With our parliamentary system, it is difficult, if not impossible, for any elected government to last its full 4-year term. Since we vote for a party, the leader of each party tries to get other leaders to join with him/her to make a coalition of at least 61 votes, the majority of the Knesset. The larger the coalition, the greater the chance of it lasting. The current Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu, attempted to make a leadership team out of newcomer Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid (there is a future) party along with his compatriots Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beytanu (Israel is our home) who ran on a combined ticket with Likud last time, Naftali Bennett's Bayit Yehudi (Jewish home) party, and Tzipi Livni, who left Kadima and started her own party (Hatnua) and will join any coalition that will give her power. This was the first time that the religious parties were excluded by Likud. Many were hopeful that this would be a successful government that would last, but due to the inexperience of Lapid and the arrogance of Livni, the government fell.
So, here we are, with elections again next week on Tuesday. Here is a summary of the major parties up for election and their projection for seats from a consensus of polls:
LIKUD - Likud is the mainstream right-of-center party lead by Prime Minister Netanyahu. Their platform includes forwarding peace with the Palestinians but without any more concessions before negotiations. They favor socio-economic reform starting with banking and housing. Likud walks a fine line between the center and the far right, often having to bring in the far right and religious parties to make a coalition. Many believe that Netanyahu is the only candidate with a reasonable shot of forming a stable coalition. The polls predict between 22-27 seats.
ZIONIST UNION - Comprised of the Labor party and Hatnua, the Zionist Union is the mainstream left-of-center party. Lead by Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni, they are campaigning mostly on a "we're not Bibi" ticket. The arrangement between themselves is that should they lead a coalition, Herzog will be Prime Minister for the first 2 years and Livni for the last 2 years. This type of arrangement was successful years ago between Yitzchak Shamir and Shimon Peres but hasn't worked since the 1990's. Livni has now run with 4 different parties in the past 4 elections; as many of you know, I used to be a big supporter of her but not anymore. She has shown much hubris and personal ambition rather than what is good for the country and it has hurt her at the polls. Their platform is to restart the peace talks with the Palestinians (even if it means making more concessions before the talks begin) and like Likud, economic reforms. Livni was a member of the previous government (Justice Minister) and Herzog was in the opposition, becoming its leader for the past year. The Zionist Union is projected to win 23-25 seats, but some of the parties have stated that they will not form a coalition with them no matter what.
Bayit Yehudi - Led by Bibi's former chief-of-staff Naftali Bennett, Bayit Yehudi is a right wing party that sides with Likud on most issues. Bennett is very popular among Anglos having spent a lot of time in the States after his army service, founding a software company in Manhattan. While they are not a religious party, many of its supporters tend to be Modern Orthodox like Bennett. They are projected to win 11-14 mandates.
JOINT ARAB LIST - This year, the Knesset has raised the threshold to 3-1/2%, meaning that any party that does not get that percentage of votes cannot have anyone seated in the Knesset. Because of this the 3 traditionally Arab parties, Balad, Hadash, and Ta'al, have joined into one. Most Israelis have a problem with the Arab parties as they seem to represent the Palestinians more than they represent the needs and concerns of Israeli Arabs. Even Israeli Arabs are upset with them and many choose not to vote. They are projected to win 12-13 seats and have pledged not to join any coalition regardless of who is the Prime Minister. This was a blow to Herzog and Livni who thought that they could persuade them to join with them. But, never say never as politics makes strange bedfellows!
YESH ATID - Probably the biggest disappointment in the last government, a popular TV personality (and son of legendary MK Tommy Lapid) Yair Lapid made a splash in his first try at politics with a whopping 19 seats (actually beating Likud 19-18, but since Likud ran on a joint list with Yisrael Beitanu, they garnered 31 seats). This was enough to make him a major player and Finance Minister. Unfortunately, due to his lack of political experience and savvy, he overplayed his hand and stood up to the coalition once too often and brought down the current government. The party's platform is a left leaning one. It is projected that they will only carry 8-12 mandates this time.
KOOLANU - A new party lead by political veteran Moshe Kahalon, a former minister and Likud member, they are politicking as the right-of-center alternative to Netanyahu. Kahalon has made it clear that he will only join a government lead by Zionists and he does not believe in dividing Jerusalem, stopping construction in the settlement blocs, and would not permit any Palestinians to "return" to Israel in a final settlement. He is campaigning as the candidate on the right that can restore relations with President Obama and America. His socio-economic plans reflect his Likudnik roots. They are projected to win 7-10 mandates.
HARADI PARTIES - There are now 3 Haradi (Ultra-Orthodox) parties -- Shas, United Torah Judaism (UTJ), and a new player in the group, Yahad. Yahad is lead by Eli Yishai, former head of Shas, who was ousted upon Arye Deri's return to the leadership after his time in prison on a fraud conviction. These parties are political whores -- they will go with anyone in power, left or right, that will give them power in the Interior and/or Education ministries. Traditionally it is the right who capitulates to their demands more readily and I don't think that it will be any different this time, especially with them out of the government in the current Knesset. I can't see any of them joining a coalition that will lead to a woman being Prime Minister which leaves Bibi as a proxy winner of between 15-20 seats.The projections are Shas will earn 4-7, UTJ 7-8, and Yahad 4-5 mandates.
MERETZ - The traditional far left party, Meretz has been a mainstay of the liberal left for decades. Billing themselves as a social-justice party, they support peace with the Palestinians based on the 1967 borders, UN recognition of the Palestinians as a state, and creating a welfare state with a wide social net. They are expected to win their usual 4-6 seats.
Additionally, there are many small parties with specific item platforms -- the Green Party (environmentalist), the Green Leaf Party (libertarian supporting the legalization of marijuana), the Pirate Party, and many others. It is rare when a small party wins a seat or two; almost impossible now with the 3-1/2% threshold.
My prediction is that regardless of the final tally of seats, Prime Minister Netanyahu will lead the next government as he will most likely be the only candidate who will be able to form a coalition of 61+. If his recent trip to American and speech to Congress did anything for him here, it made Israelis try to picture Herzog or Livni making a speech like he did if they were Prime Minister and realizing what an impressive figure Netanyahu is and how well he represents not only the State of Israel on the world stage, but the Jewish people on the whole. There are many here who feel Herzog made a mistake in refusing Netanyahu's invitation to join him at AIPAC and in Congress. While Herzog supports Bibi's position on Iran, he felt that it was more important that he stay here so close to an election. This decision disappointed many Zionist Union supporters. While there are American Democratic operatives(V 15) on the ground here working with the Zionist Union (and American Republican operatives working with Likud), I don't think they will impact enough voters to make a change. I think the next Knesset will be more right-wing than the last one, and we can thank/blame Lapid and LIvni for that.
For the past 15 years, I've been writing about the prospects of peace with the Palestinians. Unfortunately, PA President Abbas has proven time and time again that he is not a reliable partner for peace. While he talks a good game in English, his actions speak louder than words. By honoring homicide bombers, demanding Israeli concessions before returning to the table, and refusing to recognize Israel as a Jewish State, he is making it impossible for substantive talks to proceed. By going to the UN demanding recognition as a member-state, he is violating every principle agreed to for an agreement with Israel. In the meanwhile, Gaza is restocking missiles, rebuilding tunnels, and stealing money and supplies from the people who need it most -- and blaming Israel for their problems. By joining the International Criminal Court, Abbas is trying to accuse Israel of war crimes from last summer's Operation Protective Edge. All this does is anger Israelis (and Americans) and put the possibility of an agreement further and further on the backburner. What should be an easy problem to solve is made much more difficult due to the UN and other world powers capitulation to the Palestinian demands, no matter how unreasonable they may be. It is a pity, I don't believe that I will ever see true peace here in the Holy Land in my lifetime.
Outside of that, things are great! After a hard winter (though nothing compared to my old haunts of New England), we are now turning into the warm weather of spring. The 73 kids here on our NFTY-EIE High School in Israel program are having a great time, learning and growing as they spend more time here with us. Of course, still basking in the glow of the Patriots' Superbowl victory and getting ready for the Red Sox return to glory, gives me something to look forward to!
As the summer approaches, things are looking good here in Israel. International stars like Robbie Williams, the Backstreet Boys, Taylor Swift, and Lauren Hill have announced their upcoming concerts here with many more to join, despite the protests of the BDS movement and their ilk. Summer youth programs are preparing to arrive and travel the country. The economy is doing well, the shekel is relatively strong, the sun is shining -- what more can you ask for?
So that's about it from Jerusalem -- Keep fighting the good fight!
Much luck and love always,
S----
2d Analysis:
“THE ELECTION”
This is a posting of utmost seriousness, my friends, about a subject that is both weighty and complex. I will do my best to clarify.
We’re not looking at an election that is “simply” a contest between two candidates with somewhat different opinions and styles: We are talking about radical differences.
And we are not looking at a campaign process that has been measured – sort of an extended civil debate on the issues. Quite the contrary! What has been going on has been ugly and distressful.
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At the core of the campaign, we have the Likud, headed by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Credit: Politico
And the “Zionist Camp,” a merger of Labor and Hatenua, which are headed respectively by Yitzhak “Buji” Herzog and Tzipi Livni. It sometimes refers to itself as the “Zionist Union,” although “Camp” is the direct translation from the Hebrew.
Credit: The Guardian
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For the moment, we will put the other parties aside, although I will come back them.
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For those alarmed by the prospect of a Herzog-Livni government, the question is how to vote to prevent this disaster from occurring. There is huge concern right now because the current polls put the Zionist camp ahead of Likud. It’s no comfort that traditionally these polls are often wrong: the prospect remains truly terrifying.
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Why is the prospect of a Herzog-Livni government a disaster? Because we live in very dangerous times, within an exceedingly dangerous neighborhood, and nothing about the former policies of Herzog and Livni or the goals they are promoting remotely suggest they would have either the wisdom or the strength needed to stand for Israel.
This is a very serious matter. In my book, a matter that trumps the other issues. There is, for example, a housing problem here in Israel. No question. Responsibility for this problem falls on many shoulders going back over time. It must be debated and solutions must be found. But – Heaven forbid – if we are overrun by radical Islamists/terrorists because of a weak government, the housing issue becomes moot. Does it not?
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Back when Tzipi Livni was foreign minister, I was present at a talk she gave at a conference. She was explaining why Israel had to relinquish Judea and Samaria: Because this would make the world like us better, and we need international support. Dear Heaven! How I deplore this attitude. I walked out.
Livni was foreign minister in 2006, at the time of the Second Lebanon War, and served as a sort of Israeli diplomatic nursemaid to Security Council Resolution 1701, which provided the structure for Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the formation of UNIFIL – UN forces charged with working with the Lebanese army to oversee the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon.
Originally 1701 was supposed to have been established under Chapter 7 of the Security Council, which would have meant it had enforceability. But it was scaled back to a Chapter 6, which means there was no enforceability. What Livni said was “so we got [Chapter] 7 minus” – a breathtakingly stupid and meaningless statement. There is, of course, no such thing. And yet she did not protest and said that this resolution was good for Israel: she took enormous credit for this “diplomatic” achievement.
Resolution 1701 had no clause to prevent the transfer of arms into Lebanon for use by Hezbollah. In fact, UNIFIL was not authorized to use armed force. And UNIFIL includes recruits from countries that do not have diplomatic relations with Israel, countries that support terrorism and destruction of the Jewish state, and countries that are in an official state of war with Israel.
This is what Livni, without protest, called “good for Israel.”
The theoretical goal of 1701, aside from moving Israel out of Lebanon, was to keep Hezbollah out of the south of the country and to prevent it from re-arming. Today Hezbollah, along with its 100,000 rockets, is in south Lebanon.
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For most of the campaign, neither Livni nor Herzog enunciated a clear platform. The campaign consisted mostly of a series of “anyone but Bibi” innuendoes. It has been a depressingly ugly and unserious campaign.
This past Sunday, the Zionist Camp brought its platform to the public. It addresses housing issues, and economic problems, which is quite fine.
But, within the first 100 days after the election, the Zionist Camp would also “make every effort to present our (peace) initiative to the Arab League." (Emphasis here and following is added.)
What? A “peace initiative”? Now? And involving the Arab League, yet. “We present a vision and a leadership that is able to pay a political price when we believe it's justified.” This “vision” is couched in very vague language, but what is being said here is that they would relinquish Judea and Samaria and parts of Jerusalem.
Beware, I tell you.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has said repeatedly in recent days that there will be no territory relinquished under current circumstances: it would be dangerous because in no time at all we’d have jihadist terrorists at our border. He is 100% correct, and the fact that Herzog and Livni do not get it is serious indeed.
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I will not belabor all of the planks of the Zionist Camp platform, but want to mention this:
“A government headed by the Zionist Union will act to prevent Iran from developing military nuclear capabilities through a final-status agreement between Tehran and the international community, which includes dismantling the existing nuclear infrastructure, and a strict and effective regime of supervision and inspection."
I think most of my readers can understand what babble, devoid of reality, this is.
And lastly:
"The strategic allegiance (sic) between the United States and the State of Israel is a basic component of Israel's national strength, and an asset that must be safeguarded and nurtured. Hurting this allegiance (sic), much like the deterioration in Israel's international status, leads to unimaginable damage to Israel's diplomatic and security strength.
"A government led by the Zionist Union will mend the special relationship with the United States, which was seriously damaged during the tenure of the outgoing government.”
Translation: We are going to go kissy-kiss with Obama. Netanyahu made a huge mistake in crossing him, as this damaged Israel’s relationship with the US, but we aim to fix it.
Not so, of course. What was “damaged” was our relationship with a US president who works against us in any event. The enormous esteem in which the US Congress holds Netanyahu was clear for all to see.
Appeasement, bending over to keep Obama happy, can only hurt Israel.
~~~~~~~~~~
So the case against the Zionist Camp has been made. And now we look at what to do to keep Herzog and Livni out of power. Our electoral system is more than a bit complex:
People vote for parties, not for individuals, and the president of Israel plays a key role in what follows after the votes are cast and counted: It is the president who invites the head of one party to attempt to form a governing coalition. As there are 120 seats in the Knesset, the coalition must represent at least 61 of those seats (referred to as mandates).
After the election is completed, it is determined which party received the most mandates. (It has never happened that any one party had at least 61 mandates. A coalition has always been required.) Very often, the president then invites the head of that faction to try to form a coalition. The scuttlebutt now is that this is what President Ruby Rivlin intends to so. It is not necessarily required of him to do this – but it is what we expect to happen, what usually does happen.
(There is yet another step, before he formally selects the person who will attempt to form the coalition: The head of each party comes to visit the president, and indicates which party head he/she prefers to put together the coalition.)
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There are only two choices, in terms of whom Rivlin might select – it is either going to be the head of Likud (Netanyahu) or the head of the Zionist Camp (Herzog).
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There are those who make the case that what matters is a strong right wing bloc so that you are helping defeat Herzog by voting for Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) or Eli Yeshai’s Yahad party. This would be the case if Likud were solidly ahead of the Zionist Camp in the polls: then there would be a strong case for voting to the right of Likud, to prevent pull in the opposite direction.
And it is certainly the case once a coalition is being formed. Bayit Yehudi and Yahad are natural allies of Likud, and if they are strong, then the right wing bloc is stronger. (This is good because then fewer other parties have to be brought in to make the coalition. When there are more parties, the coalition tends to be weakened because each party has different demands.)
However, there is a “but” here. If Likud does not bring in more mandates than the Zionist Camp in the election, then Netanyahu might not ever have the chance to form a coalition. This is the reality right now.
I say this not because I am opposed to Bayit Yehudi or Yahad. Not at all. But because the Zionist Camp must be defeated.
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It is not necessarily the case, by the way, that the person who is given the first opportunity to form the coalition will be successful. A few years ago, Livni had the first opportunity, and failed.
What must be understood is how complicated the coalition building process is. There are parties that are definitely on the right, such as Bayit Yehudi and Yahad. They are not going with Herzog no matter what. And there are others that are clearly left, such as Meretz (if it even gets enough mandates to get into the Knesset). But there are other “centrist” parties that will swing either way. Such parties as Shas, or Yesh Atid or Kulanu. Calling themselves “centrist,” they will go with the coalition that will do the most for them. It’s a sort of political horse-trading: I’ll support your coalition and vote with you, but I want this ministry, or that law passed.
Thus is it the case that the party who has the first opportunity to attempt to form a coalition, has the best chance of bringing in these swing parties.
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And there are two other points I would make here:
Our prime minister did us very proud in Washington – making the case for blocking Iran’s intentions in a manner that may have positive implications for our security. At the same time, he enhanced our reputation. At a time when Israel is routinely delegitimized, he accrued honor for us, holding his head high and demonstrating the need for strength.
Thus does it seem right that his nation should now support him. Is he perfect? Far from it. But he is the best leader we have at present, and merits serious attention from us.
What is more, there is reason to believe that the White House has been behind the scenes in terms of some of the manipulations going on in the campaign – the game playing, engendered by American advisors. The picture of Obama getting the last laugh, knowing he “fixed” his enemy Netanyahu, even if he couldn’t block him from Congress, is a rather intolerable one.
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I cannot tell anyone how to vote. What I have done here is lay out a scenario that I believe has significant validity in terms of the current electoral situation. What I do ask, if you are in Israel, is that you take what I have written here seriously, and then make sure you go out and VOTE. What is more, I ask that you share this information with others and encourage them to vote as well.
If you are in the US or elsewhere, and have friends and relatives in Israel, I ask that you share this with them and encourage them to vote, as well.
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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist.
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