Netanyahu Wins in March! Obama Bad, Weak Negotiator. Trust Is Gone!

Stella goes silly!
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My friend Ne'eman dopes the upcoming Israeli election. Netanyahu wins because none of the opposition can mount a majority so the more  radical right win by default.  (See 1 below.)

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From a logical , and even a moral standpoint, Obama's decision vis a vis Cuba is something I can embrace. Where I have a serious problem is that he did not extract anything.  As usual he comes across as a lousy negotiator. He gives everything and receives nothing.

The American prisoner released, Alan Gross, bears some resemblance to yours truly.

This has got to be an Obama weakness signal Iran, Russia, China, N Korea and ISIS understand and Obama simply reconfirmed. 

Obama comes across as a mean spirited president who resents being rejected by the voters in view of the fact that:

a) He believes he is always right and

b) He cannot cope with rejection.

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I had a pleasant lunch today with Jolene Byrne and I told her what we discussed would not re-appear in this or any future memo.

I do not believe I am breaking by word by stating that I maintain my view that caused me to support her successful candidacy for President of The Chatham School Board.

I continue to believe though, she may come across as a soft spoken young lady,  I also believe her commitment to improving education in Chatham County is solid, her passion and plans are sound and her expectation of success seems  rational.

Obviously Jolene has a lot of heavy lifting ahead and it is incumbent upon Board members to give her a fair hearing, support her in her endeavors and do what is best for Savannah's future generation of school children.  A tall order but critical.

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Dennis Prager - "Trust Is Gone." (See 2 below.)

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Netanyahu addresses the  Foreign Press Corps and lays it on against the world's hypocrisy towards Israel. (See 3 below.)

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Our upcoming President's Day Speaker , John Podhretz, praises Jeb Bush "...was, in his time, easily the most fluid and fluent speaker on what would later come to be known as the “conservative reform agenda.”  However, John writes Jeb cannot overcome the dynasty problem and will be seen by voters as out of sync with where the Republican Party finds itself in 2016!
  (See 4 below.)

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Dick

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1) Right/Religious Victory in Israel Elections 2015

By Yisrael Ne'eman

Israel will have unnecessary, unwelcomed early elections in March 2015.  The outcome is for sure: the Right-Religious bloc will win and the Center-Left will lose.  That being said, Israel is in its usual crisis mode.  Alongside the economic slowdown there is no 2015 state budget, the health care system is in crisis with government hospital CEOs warning of collapse, the housing crunch is no better than it was two years ago and possibly worse, and many middle class young couples feel they have better options abroad.  And that is only the tip of the iceberg on the domestic front.

As important as domestic issues may appear, this time they will be of little note.  Foreign policy and defense are back to center stage.  Beginning with Iran's continued threats to obliterate Israel, virtually all the Zionist parties agree with the hard line approach of more western sanctions to halt Tehran's nuclear program – so at the moment this too is not much of an issue.  Nor is there real disagreement in confronting Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon, if need be.  But the Palestinian diplomatic statehood offensive is and will continue to be paramount.  Foremost, throughout Europe the Palestinians are gaining increasing support, especially Pres. Mahmoud Abbas and his PLO/Fatah led Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.  One parliament after another votes to call for and/or recognize an independent Palestinian State along the 1967 border guidelines.  The Palestinians themselves speak of a state within two years.  As a result of Israel's Protective Edge operation in Gaza this past summer even the viciously antisemitic Hamas is making gains in certain quarters.

The Likud is the ruling party led by PM Benyamin Netanyahu.  Fairly despised in his own party, he lacks serious support but is an expert politician.  It will be a major surprise if he loses the #1 spot in the Likud primaries on Dec. 31.  Tactically he did not allow enough time for serious candidates to get organized.  Internally since 2013 the Likud continues shifting further to the Right as much of its membership is no longer from the secular right following of the Revisionist ideologue Zev Jabotinsky.   Rather increasingly membership and those who determine the Knesset list have a national religious ideological commitment.  Much of his party believes in continuing settlement in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) at all costs, this being quite similar to the national religious Jewish Home faction led by Economics Minister Naftali Bennet, a party which today is comprised of many right wing secular activists alongside their religious colleagues.  The parties are beginning to resemble each other and together can be expected to poll some 35 Knesset seats (out of 120) in the upcoming elections.

Supposedly the big news is the unification between the Labor Party led by Yitzhak Herzog and Tzipi Livni's Hatnua faction.  They could get as much as 30 seats if we stretch our imaginations beyond its rational limits.  Many journalists, who are generally Left-Center get overly excited about the possibility that a Labor/Hatnua alignment will out poll the Likud.  But it is just a media hype fake-out.  Governments are put together with Right or Left wing blocs sometimes bringing in a centrist party to help out.  This time the Left, Center and the Arab bloc together will muster less than 50% of all Knesset seats if recent polls are any indication of Israeli voter sympathies.

The hard Left Zionist party Meretz may obtain 7 seats and former finance minister Yair Lapid's centrist Yesh Atid is not expected to get more than 10 mandates (down from 19 in the 2013 Knesset).   The Zionist Center/Left in the best of circumstances may take a bit over 45 MKs. 

The Arab lists, some of whose members like Hanin Zuabi are overtly anti-Israel, will not manage more than 12 seats.  When added to the Zionist Left-Center there is no way to block a Right/Religious coalition.  A wildly optimistic prediction could give everyone together 58 seats.  61 are needed for a coalition.  And let's face it, no one will align with the two extreme Arab factions nor do the more moderate communists offer much of an option.  So it is all a non-starter on the Zionist Left/Center.

Last time Lapid took votes from the Likud but two years later these voters will head back to the mother party or find their way to the new faction being organized by Moshe Kachlon, a former Likud minister who broke with the party to organize his own political base and is expected to gain 10 seats.  Realistically Leiberman's Yisrael Betainu will poll 8 or more and the two ultra-orthodox haredi parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas will gain at least 15.  If we do the math a conservative estimate of Right/Religious polling will bring us to 68 when adding in the Likud and Jewish Home (35 together). 

An extremely slim possibility for an alliance between the Left/Center and Yisrael Betainu together with Kachlon's new party could become a coalition.  But there would be little agreement on the main issue of the two-state solution with the Palestinians. 

The next government will be Right/Religious and most likely led by Netanyahu once again.  Despite recent legislation we can expect monies to be funneled increasingly to the haredi factions for housing and yeshiva support.  Do not be surprised if less haredim will be encouraged to do army service.  Settlement activities will increase and there will be little initiative on the Palestinian front.

However, the Palestinian issue is dominant on the international front.  There will be tough choices in the offering which no government will be able to avoid, not even Netanyahu.  More about this in the next article

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2).TRUST IS GONE, by Dennis Prager 


 Dennis Prager 

I have been broadcasting for 31 years and writing for longer than that. I do not recall ever saying on radio or in print that a president is doing lasting damage to our country. I did not like the presidencies of Jimmy Carter (the last Democrat I voted for) or Bill Clinton. Nor did I care for the “compassionate conservatism” of George W. Bush. In modern political parlance “compassionate” is a euphemism for ever-expanding government. 

But I have never written or broadcast that our country was being seriously damaged by a president. So it is with great sadness that I write that President Barack Obama has done and continues to do major damage to America . The only question is whether this can ever be undone. 
This is equally true domestically and internationally. 

Domestically, his policies have had a grave impact on the American economy. 

He has overseen the weakest recovery from a recession in modern American history. 

He has mired the country in unprecedented levels of debt: about $6.5 trillion — that is 6,500 billion — in five years (this after calling his predecessor “unpatriotic” for adding nearly $5 trillion in eight years). 
He has fashioned a country in which more Americans now receive government aid — means-tested, let alone non-means-tested — than work full-time. 

He has no method of paying for this debt other than printing more money — thereby surreptitiously taxing everyone through inflation, including the poor he claims to be helping, and cheapening the dollar to the point that some countries are talking about another reserve currency — and saddling the next generations with enormous debts. 

With his 2,500-page Affordable Care Act he has made it impossible for hundreds of thousands, soon millions, of Americans to keep their individual or employer-sponsored group health insurance; he has stymied American medical innovation with an utterly destructive tax on medical devices;and he has caused hundreds of thousands of workers to lose full-time jobs because of the health-care costs imposed by Obamacare on employers. 

His Internal Revenue Service used its unparalleled power to stymie political dissent. No one has been held accountable. 

His ambassador to Libya and three other Americans were murdered by terrorists in Benghazi , Libya . No one has been blamed. The only blame the Obama administration has leveled was on a videomaker in California who had nothing to do with the assault. 

In this president’s White House the buck stops nowhere. 

Among presidents in modern American history, he has also been a uniquely divisive force. It began with his forcing Obamacare through Congress —the only major legislation in American history to be passed with no votes from the opposition party. 

Though he has had a unique opportunity to do so, he has not only not helped heal racial tensions, he has exacerbated them. His intrusions into the Trayvon Martin affair (“If I had a son, he’d look like Trayvon”) and into the confrontation between a white police officer and a black Harvard professor (the police “acted stupidly”) were unwarranted, irresponsible, demagogic, and, most of all, divisive. 

He should have been reassuring black Americans that America is in fact the least racist country in the world — something he should know as well as anybody, having been raised only by whites and being the first (halfbreed) black elected the leader of a white-majority nation. 

Instead, he echoed the inflammatory speech of professional race-baiters such as Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. 

He has also divided the country by economic class, using classic Marxist language against “the rich” and “corporate profits.” 

Regarding America in the world, he has been, if possible, even more damaging. The United States is at its weakest, has fewer allies, and has less military and diplomatic influence than at any time since before World War II. 

One wonders if there is a remaining ally nation that trusts him. And worse, no American enemy fears him. If you are a free movement (the democratic Iranian and Syrian oppositions) or a free country ( Israel ), you have little or no reason to believe that you have a steadfast ally in the United States . 

Even non-democratic allies no longer trust America . Barack Obama has alienated our most important and longest standing Arab allies, Egypt and Saudi Arabia . Both the anti–Muslim Brotherhood and the anti-Iran Arab states have lost respect for him. 

And his complete withdrawal of American troops from Iraq has left that country with weekly bloodbaths. 
Virtually nothing Barack Obama has done has left America or the world better since he became president. Nearly everything he has touched has been made worse. 

He did, however, promise before the 2008 election that “We are five days away from fundamentally transforming the United States of America ..” That is the one promise he has kept. 

What does it take for the American people to WAKE UP?

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3)  PM Netanyahu Addresses the Foreign Press Corps

Nitzan Chen, the Director of the Government Press Office. 

Good evening. 

I want to thank you and all the staff at the Government Press Office for all 
that you do, not only for tonight, but throughout the year. 

I also want to recognize most especially Moshe Milner. Moshe retired after 
decades of service as one of the GPO's most prominent photographers. He has 
documented Israel through his photographs over many years, and I think he 
actually produced an invaluable pictorial record the country, the country as 
it really is – not as it's often portrayed but as it really is. And I want 
to thank you, Moshe, for your many, many years of service. For this you have 
our profound gratitude. Thank you. 

Ladies and Gentlemen, 

Today we witnessed a series of examples of European naivety, and may I add, 
hypocrisy: the decision of the European court in Luxembourg on Hamas, the 
resolution of the EU Parliament in Brussels on Palestinian statehood, and 
the call from Switzerland to investigate Israel for supposed violations of 
the Geneva Convention. Now all these point in the same direction. They point 
to a spirit of appeasement in Europe of the very forces that threaten Europe 
itself. Too many in Europe are calling on Israel to make concessions that 
would endanger not only the security of Israel, but also paradoxically, the 
security of Europe itself because Israel is the forward position of European 
civilization. Israel is the bulwark of European values. Israel is a 
pluralist, vibrant multi-party democracy. 

In Israel there is equality before the law. The rights of all are vigorously 
protected – of minorities, of women, of gays, of everyone. Only in Israel. 
In Israel there is a true separation of powers. Our judiciary is fiercely 
independent and we're proud of this. And you as journalists know something 
that applies to your profession: In a very, very large expanse, Israel is 
the only country in the Middle East and beyond with a truly free press. No 
one is incarcerated. No one is pressed. No one is harassed. You could write 
what you want. You do. You can say what you want. You do. And you can just 
about photograph anything you want and you do that too. Only in Israel and 
it stands in sharp contrast to what we see in the region around us, in the 
horrors that afflict human beings there, in the horrors that afflict 
journalists who cover these savageries. 

Ladies and Gentlemen, 

Israel is an embattled democracy in a region plagued by totalitarianism, 
tyranny and Islamist terrorism; a region where human rights are trampled 
upon; where basic human freedoms ignored; where arbitrary violence is 
par-for-the-course. Israel is forced to defend itself against terrorists who 
time and again try to target our civilians. This summer they fired thousands 
of rockets on our cities and while they were doing this, these terrorists 
committed a double war crime. They deliberately targeted our civilians. 
That's a war crime. And they used their civilians as human shields. That's a 
second war crime. 

Yet the focus in Geneva today was that Israel must be investigated for war 
crimes. What hypocrisy. What a travesty. I ask, where is elementary European 
integrity? Now I know that some in Europe say that they are frustrated with 
the situation in the Middle East. Well let me tell you a secret. We in 
Israel are frustrated with the situation in the Middle East. We are 
frustrated that our Palestinian neighbors refuse to recognize the right of 
the Jewish people to a state of their own at the time that they're asking 
for us to recognize their right to have one. We're frustrated that our 
Palestinian neighbors continue to incite against Jews and the Jewish state, 
creating a climate of hatred and violence. We're frustrated that they refuse 
to negotiate seriously about our legitimate security concerns. And I think 
all of you know that in this part of the world, there can be no genuine 
peace without security for peace will not last if it cannot be defended. 

The simple truth is that half of Palestinian society has been taken over by 
Islamist extremists who openly call for Israel's destruction, while the 
other half refuses to confront the first half. So when Europeans say that 
they are frustrated, we say, "Join the club". And I don't believe that 
frustration can be an excuse for wrong policy. Removing the terrorist 
designation of Hamas is a grave mistake. Hamas is a ruthless terrorist 
organization with a proven track record of brutal terror attacks against 
innocent civilians – by the way, not only Israelis: hundreds, hundreds and 
hundreds of Palestinians who have been murdered by them. Just this year, 
Hamas kidnapped and murdered three Israeli teenagers. It launched thousands 
of rocket attacks indiscriminately at our children, at our civilians. And it 
celebrated just recently the murder of innocent worshippers massacred at a 
Jerusalem synagogue, and called upon its followers to commit more such 
terrorist atrocities. 

Some erroneously believe that Hamas terror is a function of a failed peace 
process. Well, I will remind all of you that in the heyday of Oslo, when 
leaders across the globe were excited about the new momentum in the peace 
process, hundreds of Israelis were the victims of one of Hamas's most brutal 
terror campaigns. Now, it was said then that Hamas uses terror to destroy 
the peace, and it is said now that Hamas uses terror because there is no 
peace. 

Well, the truth is that Hamas uses terrorism against Israel because it's a 
terrorist organization committed to Israel's destruction. It's as simple as 
that. That's the nature of this organization and that's its fundamental 
goal. Now if anyone had any illusions about that, you could hear one of the 
leaders of Hamas this weekend, Mahmoud al-Zahar. He reminded us that Hamas's 
goal isn't to rule over Gaza or to rule over Judea/Samaria in the West Bank. 
He said it clearly: Hamas's goal is the total and complete annihilation of 
Israel and the murder of Israel's citizens. 

Well, do the self-proclaimed Palestinian moderates confront Hamas and the 
other Islamist extremists? Unfortunately, they often seem to be trying to 
compete with them over who can use the most inflammatory language and who 
can summon wells of anti-Jewish sentiment and anti-Israel sentiment. It was 
President Abbas himself who spoke seriously, slanderously of a Jewish threat 
to the Muslim holy sites. There is no such threat. We keep the status quo 
rigorously. That's not going to change. We guard the holy sites of all the 
religions. That's not going to change. And by the way, again, in the broad 
Middle East, we're the only ones who do so – for Jews, for Christians, for 
Muslims. In fact, the only place where Christian communities are not 
persecuted, where Christian communities have not shrunk – they've actually 
grown four-fold since the founding of the State of Israel – is Israel. It's 
the only place. 

So to speak about our "attack" on the holy sites is not merely a lie, it's 
just wrong. It's wrong because it creates the wrong impression among 
Palestinian youngsters, among Palestinians at large and it produces these 
waves of attacks from people who seriously believe that we would destroy the 
al-Aqsa Mosque. There was just a poll taken in Palestinian society. About 
90% believe, 85% believe that Israel seeks to achieve such a goal so this 
rhetoric has consequences. It forces a change in people's minds and it 
forces radical and violent behavior. It has to stop. It was Abbas who 
actually called the Palestinians to use "all means" to fight this fabricated 
threat; and it was Abbas who accused the Jews of "contaminating" – that was 
his word – "contaminating" the Temple Mount. 

Now, the question I raise for you tonight is where is Europe in all of this? 
Does it hold the Palestinian leadership accountable for its coddling of 
extremism? Does it demand that the Palestinian Authority break its signed 
pact with Hamas? Does Europe call for an end to outrageous official 
Palestinian incitement against Jews and the Jewish state? 

The sad truth is that Europe is largely silent on these questions and when 
it raises its voice, it's typically in the other direction. In fact, the 
European Parliament and some parliaments of EU member states have been 
calling for the recognition of a Palestinian state. And I ask you, why 
should the Palestinian leadership demonstrate responsible behavior? Why 
should the Palestinian leadership jettison its maximalist and extreme 
positions? Why should it abandon its call to flood Israel with millions of 
Palestinians? Why should the PA do any of this if its extremist and 
irresponsible behavior is rewarded time and again by European parliaments? 
Let there be no mistake: parliamentary recognitions do nothing to advance 
peace. Quite the contrary. These declarations merely reinforce Palestinian 
intransigence, pushing peace further away. 

And the point that I came here tonight to make, this is the point I close 
with: There is a simple truth that cannot be ignored. Peace will only come 
when the Palestinians are willing to confront their own extremists. Instead 
of embracing the militants, the PA should fight them. And instead of 
rewarding Palestinian intransigence, the European democracies should support 
the one and only democracy in the Middle East and that, ladies and 
gentlemen, is the State of Israel. 

Thank you.

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4) Jeb’s killer flaw — the name, not the ideology

By John Podhoretz

Jeb Bush is running for president. The brother of Bush 43 and son of Bush 41 said as much yesterday on Facebook.

If you think you know something about Jeb Bush solely based on his name and connections, truth is, you don’t. What he has in common with the two Georges is blood, a last name, time in Kennebunkport and membership in the Republican Party.

Otherwise, they are startlingly different, all three.

George H.W. Bush was the man who became president because he ran beside Ronald Reagan and spent his years in the White House as an ideologically inconstant Republican.

George W. Bush was the man who became president because he forswore his own father’s inconstancy and followed Reagan’s big-picture conservative example instead.

By contrast, Jeb Bush is a gregarious and enthusiastic policy wonk (and a Catholic convert).

His unusually intellectual governorship (from 1998-2006) was, first and last, dedicated to introducing conservative reform ideas on education, health care and budgeting.

He created tough state standards for Florida’s horrific schools, and pushed through the nation’s first full-fledged school-choice program.

He changed the way Florida’s state universities admitted students and basically killed off its ineffective and unjust quota system.

More than a decade before Chris Christie canceled the construction of a Hudson River tunnel that he feared would break the New Jersey budget — the dramatic move that made Christie a star in conservative circles — Bush killed a multi-billion-dollar high-speed-rail boondoggle on his second day in office.

Jeb Bush was, in his time, easily the most fluid and fluent speaker on what would later come to be known as the “conservative reform agenda.”

He knew the policies he was advocating inside and out, and could explain them effectively and push them forward even more effectively.

For this reason, he was generally considered both the best and the most effective conservative governor in the country when his second term ended in 2006. He was not just respected among conservatives, he was beloved.

But it’s about to be 2015, and conservatives now view Jeb Bush with suspicion and distaste.

Some of this is pure ignorance. Many only know him by name and they assume he is an amalgam of father and brother, both of whom activist conservatives (who once loved W.) now view with hostility.

But it’s also due to a sea change in the conservative ranks. Bush was once a darling for his tough and serious approach on education.

But he supports the new Common Core standards, which are anathematic to many conservatives because they seem to have a centralized root.

Bush is similarly out of step on immigration issues; he is broadly supportive of a path to citizenship, both as the longtime steward of a state with a large Latino population and as the Spanish-speaking husband of a Mexican immigrant himself. The party’s base has shifted very far to the rejectionist right on this matter.

Yet he is so intelligent and able a politician that he might find a way to talk about these matters effectively over the course of the next year before he faces voters.

But there’s something else that I doubt he can overcome.

Flash forward to one of the GOP debates next fall. Imagine that Bush is leading in the polls, or close. One rival takes the opportunity to say this:

“Jeb, you were a great governor. You’re a fine man. Your father is a great American. Your brother gave his all to keep America safe and secure.

“But Jeb, we have to face facts. This is a party that needs to convince ordinary working-class and middle-class Americans that we stand with them.

“Look around you. Scott Walker and Ted Cruz are the sons of preachers. Marco Rubio’s father was a bartender and his mother cleaned rooms at a hotel. John Kasich’s dad was a steelworker. Chris Christie’s was a CPA.

“This will be the 10th presidential election since 1980. In all but three of them, a Bush was on the ticket. America isn’t a monarchy, Mr. Bush. That’s not who we are.

“Is this the message we want to send to the American people — that to get a major-party nomination, Democrats need to be named Clinton and Republicans need to be named Bush?”

It may not be fair. But it’s unanswerable.

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