A dear liberal friend of mine sent me a recent article extolling how successful Obama has been because employment is below what Romney said he could achieve, energy prices were down below even Romney's wildest dreams, and the article went on and on about how wonderfully good we were because of Obama's marvelous statistical accomplishments..
I did not have time to read the entire article because I was watching the burial of a NYPD officer but then 'what difference does it matter!'
Yes, Liberal statistics do not lie they just do not tell it all. Sometimes you have to look behind them, as with all statistics, and when you do I would argue that employment is uneven, salaries have not kept up with rising costs, the middle class is being decimated as health care costs and increased taxes take further permanent bites out of household budgets and gas prices are likely to ratchet back up over time.
America is more divided along racial lines since the Kennedy/Johnson Years and we are weaker and less respected than since WW 2.
That said, I know whatever I point out in a statistical sense cannot overcome the mindset of one who must defend the indefensible because I am 'racially biased' and then there is that pesky Mitch McConnell!. (See 1 below.)
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Why This University of Michigan Professor Says, “It’s Okay to Hate Republicans”
My New Year Predictions from A to Z!
As the New Year begins from a political, economic, foreign policy and social standpoint I suspect the following
a) America will remain racially divided because ideologically de Blasio, Sharpton, Obama and Holder have provided matches and hate is and ever present combustible.
b) America will find itself deeper in debt with diminishing hope of reversing the trend
c) Our nation's education system will continue failing our children largely because the federal government got involved and the politically correct crowd have intruded with their bleeding heart ideas
d) America will remain militarily weaker than ever and because Obama wanted to prove we had won the war against terrorism and thus, withdrew our troops only to be forced to reintroduce them
e) America's borders will remain unsecured
f) Obama remains hell bent on shoving his radical policies down the nation's collective throat and remains more interested in furthering his legacy than the nation's welfare.
To do this Obama constantly needs to blame someone, something and to find a new Pinata. After all he has just about run out of them. He's blamed the police,the wealthy, Wall Street, Republicans in general and G.W specifically,and then there are all those pesky bible thumping gun toters etc.
g) Israel will continue to remain a thorn in Obama's side for several reasons among which are: his contempt for Netanyahu, his anger over his own premature effort and subsequent failure to resolve the Palestinian Issue because he believes Netanyahu's settlement efforts undercut him, and Secretary's Clinton and Kerry.
h) China will continue to spend and advance militarily in order to challenge America's sphere of influence in the Pacific Region.
g) Co-operation between Saudi Arabia and the United States will continue to ebb due to Saudi distrust of Obama and his weak and inept stance against Iran
h) Turkey will grow increasingly contentious when it comes to being a true NATO partner
i) Iran will continue to press forward on their nuclear program which is currently impeded by the price of oil.
Iran may stop short of challenging the next Israeli l P.M to take action but should be allowed to come within a few months of their goal.
j) I suspect, in the next several months, the decline in oil will reverse because even the Saudis cannot sustain the self-induced pain
k) The 2016 election will become increasingly dominant and will begin to intrude upon and shape the legislative agenda
l) The cost impact of Obama Care will spread as much of the act's deferred provisions take root.
m) I would not be surprised if we sustain an increased number of terrorist attacks on Americans both overseas and domestically.
n) The Fed will probably defer raising interest rates because of the flabbiness of the world's economic picture.
o) Any benefits of our recognition of Cuba will fade as reality supplants hype. This will hold true even if Raoul Castro succumbs because those who control Cuba make too much money skimming the country's treasury.
p) Putin will continue to oppose everything Obama does and though Russia's economy will put more stress on Russia's standard of living, Putin will probably survive the Ruble's decline.
q) America's Middle Class decline will continue at a somewhat muted pace and black employment will remain far behind that of other groups because of poor education, lack of training, job skills and poor work ethics.
r) Any Obama appointments to sensitive positions will be successfully resisted now that Republicans have the power to do so and that includes a possible opportunity to appoint one or more members to The Supreme Court.
s) Jeb Bush will gain traction among voters but may be rejected by his Party. Hillary will run and will be opposed but not effectively unless poor health prevents her from campaigning.
t) Another war will most likely break out in The Middle East between Hamas and maybe even Hezballah, and Israel because Iran believes it is free to push the envelope and will benefit from doing so. (See a and b below.)
u) Strife and discord in our nation will continue to remain at flash point levels because Obama, Holder and Sharpton among others have unleashed and encouraged behaviour that supports anarchy and radical attitudes and solutions.
v) Tragically, I expect a terrorist event will result in significant casualties among our troops in The Middle East and again Obama will be hard pressed to respond. Why? Because ISSIS has obtained more powerful weapons and we cannot depend upon those whom we are assisting.
w) Since our economic expansion is dependent upon the economic fortunes of China and Europe, any continued slow down overseas will impact and/or could suspend our own recovery.
I do not believe we are out of the economic woods and solidly on the way to what has historically been deemed a full employment economy. The demand impetus is not strong enough to result in the greening of America and tax policies remain restrictive vis a vis returns.
x) Unfunded pension liabilities will continue to haunt state governments and as interest rates creep higher problems will mount. Yes, politicians will continue to finesse them but it will create rising tensions among public sector unions
y) Christie's presidential campaign will falter because the public will tire of his bullyness and his style will not project well again Jeb's more reflective manner.
z) I suspect the Dow and other major market indices will have peaked long before 2015 is over though corporate earnings should sustain a higher market beyond 2014 closing levels.
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My friend, who heads the Birmingham Federation has written about the Israeli election. (See 2, and 2a below.)
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Brilliance from the mouths of Democrats (See 3 below.)
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Dick
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1) White Liberals and The New Racism
I attended a forum the other night at a liberal synagogue about “the tragic trend of police shootings of unarmed black men.” Let’s set aside that there is no “trend” and that the “unarmed” black men were also resisting arrest, and in the case of Michael Brown was trying to take the gun away from the police officer who felt he had to shoot him in order to save his own life.
I’m pretty sure at least 99 percent of everyone in the room –- not counting me and the 3 co-conspirators I dragged along – were committed liberals who were convinced that the biggest problem plaguing black America is white cops who hate black people and shoot them if they so much as look at the cop funny.
No, they didn’t say so in just that way, but that was certainly the gist of what was said that night.
During the opening remarks, we heard from the panelists — a black activist who didn’t want anyone to be called a “criminal,” and opposed prisons on principle; a member of the ACLU who thought that America was “further away from equality” today than in 1965 when he marched from Selma to Montgomery; a cop who said he believed Michael Brown was trying to take away Officer Darren Wilson’s gun only to “humiliate him,” presumably with no intention of shooting the cop; and a judge who for the most part simply explained how grand juries operate, though she tiptoed into liberal terrain too.
They talked about how cops had to change their behavior in order to stop the “trend” that was killing off “unarmed” black men. But during their presentations, not one of them uttered even one word about what criminal suspects needed to do to avoid being shot by police.
When the moderator asked for questions I was the first one on my feet. I noted that everything said up to that point was about police behavior, and the obligations of white society, and the supposed failure of America’s educational system. I told the libs I found it troubling that no one was holding criminal suspects responsible for their actions. Then I offered up a list of three things people needed to do to avoid trouble with the police.
- Obey the law.
- Don’t resist arrest
- Never – NEVER! – try to take a cop’s gun away from him
If suspects did those things, I said, the number of unarmed black men would go down to near zero. I noted that I said “near zero” because there are some bad cops out there, and I made clear they should not be allowed to wear a badge or carry a gun.
I sensed more than a whiff of unease in the room. Good.
Inside the bubble they inhabit, nobody talks the way I did, even though I didn’t say anything even vaguely controversial. Inside the bubble, they can go for a day, a week, a month, a year, practically an entire lifetime and not run into somebody with a right-of-center point of view. The comfort of the bubble enables them to glide through life believing that it’s not so much that they’re liberal, but more that they’re … reasonable.
Then I dropped a statistic on them. Black police officers account for a little more than 10 percent of all fatal police shootings (according to the most current government statistics). But of those they kill, 78 percent were black.
That leads us to one of two conclusions I told the lefties: Either black cops are just as racist as they believe white cops are … or … a lot of black criminal suspects do things that bring about their own demise.
Next question, please, said the moderator.
Afterward, in informal gatherings, one of the libs told me that crime stems from poverty. I responded that 72 percent of black babies are born out of wedlock and that often leads to poverty, which too often leads to crime. Cut down on that kind of behavior, I said, and a lot of the crime problem – and confrontation with cops — goes away.
I must have said something about how liberals would never tell 15-year old black girls to stop having babies because one of the libs told me that it’s not up to white people to tell black people how to raise their families.
Oy! It’s true: There are no limits to white liberal guilt.
It’s comfortable living in a bubble. You never have to defend your positions. All your friends think the way you do. But it’s not healthy to be so cut off from what really amounts to mainstream American thought. And most of all, living in the white liberal bubble doesn’t do young black men, who this group supposedly cared so much about, one bit of good.
Here’s what I didn’t tell the group, though I was tempted. They are the new face of racism in America. They are the kinder, gentler, liberal kind. They are enablers who make it easy for too many black people to see themselves as victims. They are the ones who would never tell black people that the best way to avoid confrontations with cops – yes, some of whom are racists – is to not get into trouble in the first place.
A few days later, with their liberal rubbish still clogging my thoughts, I remembered that old observation by Winston Churchill. “Show me a young Conservative and I’ll show you someone with no heart. Show me an old Liberal and I’ll show you someone with no brains.”
Bingo!
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a) Islamic State Fighters are Moving Ever Closer Towards Israel
by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
The Jerusalem Post
Islamic State has suffered severe losses as a result of coalition air strikes in the last months. Over 1,000 of its fighters have been killed, and Kurdish peshmerga forces have driven the jihadists back on a wide front between the cities of Erbil and Mosul.
The terror movement has also failed to conquer the symbolic town of Kobani (Ayn al-Arab) close to the Syrian-Turkish border (further south, Islamic State losses have been more modest and at least partially reversed).
Yet despite these setbacks, there are no indications that Islamic State is anywhere close to collapse. And while American bombers and Kurdish fighters are preventing its advance further east, there are many indications the jihadists are continuing to advance their presence in a south and westerly direction – from the borders of their entity towards Damascus and Lebanon, and incidentally, in the direction of Israel.
A largely hidden contest is under way in Deraa province in southern Syria, between Islamic State and the rival jihadists of Jabhat al-Nusra.
Deraa, where the Syrian rebellion was born in March 2011, has been the site of major losses for the Assad regime over the last year. Nusra established itself as a major force in the area after its fighters were defeated by Islamic State further east.
In recent weeks, reports have emerged that three rebel militias in Deraa have pledged bay'ah (allegiance) to Islamic State.
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But now it appears that Islamic State is seeking to establish a foothold in this area, too.
In recent weeks, reports have emerged that three rebel militias in Deraa have pledged bay'ah (allegiance) to Islamic State. The largest of these is the Yarmuk Martyrs Brigade; the others are Saraya al-Jihad and Tawheed al-Junub. While the Yarmuk Martyrs Brigade has since denied pledging formal allegiance to Islamic State, the reports have Nusra and the Western- supported rebel groups in the south nervous.
They are acutely aware that in locales further east, such as al-Bukamal on the Syria-Iraq border, in the course of 2014 Islamic State came in not through conquest, but by recruiting the non-Islamic State groups that held the area to its flag. Nusra now fears that Islamic State wishes to repeat this process further south.
This fear is compounded by the appearance of Islamic State-linked fighters in the Damascus area in recent weeks. In the town of Bir al-Qasab, fighters affiliated with the terror movement have been battling other rebels since early December; Islamic State has engaged in resupplying these fighters from its own territory further east. Nusra and other rebel groups have begun to speculate about the possibility of a push by the jihadists either toward Deraa or Eastern Goutha, adjoining Damascus.
Finally, further west, in the Qalamoun Mountains, Islamic State and Nusra fighters have clashed in recent weeks. Reports have surfaced that Islamic State has begun to demand that other rebel groups in the area, including Nusra, pledge bay'ah to it.
This is despite the notable fact that the Qalamoun area had been the scene in recent months of rare cooperation between Islamic State and Nusra, out of shared interest in extending the conflict into Lebanon.
The events there come amid Lebanese media speculation as to the possibility of an imminent Islamic State push from Qalamoun toward the Sunni town of Arsal across the border (or even, in some versions, toward the Shi'ite towns of Baalbek and Hermel).
Such an offensive would form part of the larger campaign against the regime and Hezbollah in this area.
SO, WHAT does this all amount to? First, it should be noted that Nusra's presence in Quneitra Province, immediately adjoining the Golan Heights, is the point at which Syrian jihadists currently come closest to Israel.
As Islamic State loses ground further east, it seeks to recoup its losses elsewhere; this trend is bringing jihadists closer, toward the borders of both Israel and Jordan.
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And while Nusra has not yet been the subject of hostile Western attention, it is no less anti-Western and anti-Jewish than its Islamic State rivals. The fact that it cooperates fully with groups supported by the Military Operations Command in Amman should in itself be a matter of concern for the West.
But Nusra, unlike Islamic State, appears genuinely committed to the fight against Syria's Assad regime. And at times, at least, it is prepared to set aside its own ambitions to pursue this general goal.
This means, from Israel's point of view, that while its presence close to the border is a matter of long-term concern, in the immediate future the al-Qaida franchise's attentions are largely turned elsewhere.
Such calculations could not be safely made regarding Islamic State, which by contrast works only for its own benefit.
Its sudden push into Iraq in June and then August show the extent to which it is able to abruptly change direction, catching its opponents by surprise. The record of Islamic State against other rebel groups thus far has been one of near uninterrupted success.
Conversely, it is now being halted in its eastern advances by the US and its allies. But neither the US Air Force nor the Kurdish ground fighters are present further south and west, so there is a clear strategic logic to the current direction of Islamic State activity.
As Islamic State loses ground further east, it seeks to recoup its losses elsewhere; this trend is bringing jihadists closer, toward the borders of both Israel and Jordan. It may be presumed this fact is not lost on Israeli defense planners – hence the reports of increased activity by Military Intelligence collection units and reinforcement of the military presence on the Golan Heights.
The single war now raging in Syria, Iraq and increasingly Lebanon, is moving closer – toward Israel.
Jonathan Spyer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
b)
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Military Intelligence foresees threats to Israel in 2015
Analysis: Top Shin Bet assessment predicts Middle East will remain dangerous and unstable: There is no international landlord, states are disintegrating, and enemies are honing tactics. Alex Fishman
The Middle East is expected to be very bad place in which to live over the coming year – perhaps one of the worst and most dangerous places in the world. When Military Intelligence puts its feelers out across the borders – in the direction of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and North Africa – it sees and describes a world gripped by social decay, crumbling politically, and becoming increasingly poor.
The chronic economic crisis that is affecting the Arab Spring countries, and continues to worsen in light of the falling oil prices, is accelerating the internal disintegration of major countries such as Syria, Libya and Iraq, and could undermine stabilizing regimes like Iran and Egypt.
 Islamic State members in Iraq. (Archive Photo: AP)
In Saudi Arabia alone, which is seen as a stable country, unemployment among the young will reach 30 percent in the coming year. No wonder there are so many Saudis in the global Jihad organizations.
Many more young individuals will fail to find their place in the Muslim societies, resulting in the rise of many more radical movements around Israel and the spilling by Muslims of a lot more Muslim blood in relation to previous years. And this tidal wave of violence could spill over into Israel. If there is a nightmarish scenario that's going to keep MI officials awake at night in 2015 it's the possibility that they won't be able to locate this tidal wave as it begins to form.
This gloomy outlook, in the drier and more professional terminology of the MI researchers, is the bottom line of the comprehensive document MI's Research Department submitted recently to senior General Staff officials in the traditional ceremony known as MI's Annual Assessment – a regular ritual designed to present the army chiefs and political leadership with a forecast outlining the expected political and military developments in the coming year.
This intelligence assessment, consisting essentially of a series of potential threats to which answers must be found, is supposed to serve as the foundation for the State of Israel's security-economic-political work plan for the year to come.
This time, however, this gloomy forecast will fall on the shoulders of a new government, a new cabinet, a new chief of staff and perhaps a new defense minister too, making the situation even more worrisome. The Middle East, after all, is not going to wait until the summer, until a new Israeli government settles in. The uncertainty, instability and volatility of the events taking place could shake the region without warning.
It's no wonder then that MI officials themselves are saying today that an intelligence assessment for an entire year is excessively pretentious. They say they can offer an assessment with a high degree of certainty only for the first few months of 2015.
Chief of staff-elect Gadi Eisenkot sits today in the temporary office set aside for incoming army chiefs on the 15th floor of the Defense Ministry tower. There's a good chance that he will have to take responsibility for everything for a few months, at least. A new government, and perhaps a new defense minister, will need time before figuring things out and starting to adopt long-term decisions. Until then, Eisenkot will be the only one to offer continuity in terms of security readiness.
He will also have to act as mentor for the new group until it gets comfortable in its seats. He is very familiar with MI's assessment, having been party to its preparation. Now, he's racking his brains: How do we construct a wall of security to prevent the madness that is gripping the Middle East and is likely to get worse throughout 2015 from spilling over into our house?
 Explosions at Quneitra in Syria, not far from the Israeli border. (Archive Photo: EPA) The landlord's vanished
Every MI assessment begins with an overview of the regional picture from the perspective of the world powers. The bottom line here is a very simple one: The Middle East of today has no international landlord. There's no single element that maintains the balance, that facilitates international collaboration to preserve peace of sorts in the region.
Vladimir Putin's Russia is making every effort to increase its influence in the Middle East by means of a firm foothold in Syria. The United States, which for years enjoyed a free hand in the Middle East as a soloist, doesn't make a move these days without coalitions. In Syria, it's an Arab coalition; in Iraq, a Western coalition. Without a coalition behind him, Barack Obama would not have got involved with Islamic State and wouldn't have come down from the fence to help the more moderate Sunni forces in Syria and the Kurds in Iraq.
The Russians, who have come to the aid of the Syrians in several key battles against the rebels, have despaired with the Syrian Army. Syrian and Iranian experts, working shoulder to shoulder in Syria, have already come to the conclusion that Syrian Army is not going to deliver the goods and stop the tide.
They are trying therefore – with the Americans getting dragged along – to work towards a compromise solution between the rebels and Bashar Assad's regime that would lead to a division of powers in the country. This isn't stopping the Russians from continuing every week to deliver a shipload of arms for the Syrian Army – from bullets for Kalashnikovs and through to heavy rockets – to the port of Tartus.
Greater Syria no longer exists. The accepted term these days is Assad's "Little Syria," which controls 20-30 percent of the country. The remainder comprises independent cantons that are fighting against one another. Israel's part in the story is the Golan Heights.
The price Israel is paying for providing humanitarian aid to the Free Syrian Army rebels is the deployment of these moderate Sunni groups over a large portion of the Golan Heights, facing into Syria. They create a buffer and physically prevent elements such as Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State from spilling over into the Israeli side of the Golan Heights.
North of Quneitra lie a number of Druze villages that serve as hotbeds for hostile actions against Israel on the Golan Heights. The units operating there are backed by Hezbollah and the Syrian Army. One of them is under the command of the son of Imad Mughniyeh, who oversaw Hezbollah's terror activities abroad and was assassinated by Israel in 2008. A second group is under the command of another familiar face - Samir Kuntar, who spent decades in an Israeli prison before being released in return for the bodies of Israeli soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser who were captured by Hezbollah.
And, by the way, the chemical weapons issue in Syria will remain unresolved in 2015 too. The body dealing with Syria's chemical disarmament, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, has yet to close the file. There is reason to believe that the Assad regime is still concealing chemical agents.
The Iranian front presents a complex picture too. We won't know before the summer if Iran and the United States are going to sign an agreement on the nuclear issue. MI officials believe today that such an agreement would be bad for Israel.
On the one hand, it would allow for a more accurate assessment vis-à-vis Hezbollah's future conduct along Israel's northern border; on the other, if Iran doesn't sign an agreement with the West and fails to shake off the global sanctions, it could spiral out of control. Disappointment with President Hassan Rouhani and continuing economic despair could see a return to power in Tehran of the Revolutionary Guard. These are dramatic processes that could have an immediate effect on the northern border – but no one can foresee them today.
At least two more issues will determine the face of 2015 in the Middle East – the Israeli elections and the impact the falling oil prices has on the oil exporters in the region. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are believed to have accumulated sufficient financial reserves to allow them to get through the crisis in one piece. In contrast, the price crisis could bring down the regimes in Iran, Iraq and Libya and lead to further anarchy. The Russians, too, could change their tune in the Middle East in light of the dramatic decline in oil revenues and turn more aggressive, in an effort to combat what they perceive as an American plot to destroy them.
 Police and protestors in Egypt following the vedict in Hosni Mubarak's trial. (Archive Photo: AP) A ray of light in the dark
MI's assessment also deals with the issue of the disintegration of the nation states. Libya is divided into three states – Cyrenaica in the east, Tripolitania in the west, and Fezzan in the largely desert south. Sudan has split in two. Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Somalia are falling apart. The process, MI officials say, could spread to other countries and deepen in those crumbling already now.
Islamic State elements – political not military, for the time being – are in Jordan's Ma'an region. In the Sinai Peninsula, the Ansar Bait al-Maqdis organization, which was once linked with al-Qaeda, recently pledged allegiance to Islamic State. Since the declaration, the Israel Defense Forces' Southern Command has been readying for the group's first terror attack against Israel from the Sinai. The emir of Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, announced a few weeks ago that Israel was one of the organization's targets.
The global Jihad, in all its various forms, continues to run rampant through the Middle East and Africa. It's in the Sinai, Gaza, Syria, Iraq, Somalia and Yemen. Osama bin-Laden's successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who came from Egypt, has – unlike his predecessor – a Middle Eastern agenda with Israel at its center.
MI officials speak of four camps in the Middle East that are fighting one another. The first is the radical-Shia axis that includes Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and the Houthis in Yemen. This axis is currently trying to embrace Hamas. In the past two weeks alone, senior Iranian officials have announced plans to begin providing military aid to Hamas in the West Bank.
The second axis is the moderate camp – Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. Qatar, too, has recently joined this group, albeit in part only, after the Saudis coerced the Qataris into reaching an understanding with the Egyptians. This understanding between Qatar and Egypt is particularly significant for Israel. It could delay or prevent a conflagration along the Gaza border. This alliance could distance the Iranians from Hamas and give another boost to the rebuilding of the Gaza Strip in cooperation with the Palestinian Authority.
This process will undoubtedly encounter resistance from global Jihad elements and rogue organizations in Gaza. In the last few days alone, we've twice received proof of efforts to drag Israel and Hamas into another round of hostilities – a rocket fired in the direction of the Eshkol region by global Jihadists, and sniper fire in the southern section of the Strip from an unidentified organization.
Hamas, which can see the Qatari money and reconstruction of Gaza on the horizon, is making every effort to prevent the global Jihad groups and rogue organizations from acting against Israel. The Qatari-Egyptian partnership, still in its infancy, may in 2015 turn out to be a ray of light in the darkness of the relations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Israel is now keeping a close eye on Mahmoud Abbas' moves and efforts to present a request to establish a Palestinian state within two years to the UN Security Council. If Abbas does so after January, he'll have a majority for the decision, and the event will take on different dimensions. Tensions between Israel and the Palestinians will increase and could lead to deterioration in the security situation.
Deterioration in the security situation between Israel and the Palestinians, or between Israel and Gaza, is a realistic option in 2015. Hamas now has 30 percent of the rocket capabilities it had on the eve of Operation Protective Edge – a 5-10 percent improvement since the ceasefire.
While the defensive tunnels in Shujaiya and Khan Younis are undergoing renovations and rebuilding, there are no signs meanwhile of new tunnels leading into Israeli territory. Israel has proof that Hamas has purchased cement from more than 8,000 homeowners in Gaza who received the building material from the United Nations, in cooperation with Israel, in order to repair their homes.
The third camp is the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood. They are in Gaza, Israel, Jordan, Egypt and Syria. MI's assessment doesn't rule out the possibility that the protest rallies will return again to the public squares in Jordan and Egypt, as the chances of stabilizing the economies in the Arab states are very low.
The fourth camp in the Jihadist-Sunni one – Islamic State, Jabhat al-Nusra, Ansar Bait al-Maqdis and their offshoots.
All four of these camps are at war with one another on the playing field of the Middle East. Israel, meanwhile, is the observer that sometimes gets hit with a ricochet from the fighting.  A rocket fired from Gaza in summer 2014. (Archive Photo: EPA) Get ready for a cyber-assault
The MI assessment also points to a change in the enemy's perceptions vis-à-vis its use of force. Both Hezbollah and Hamas have dropped their projectile-based defensive and attrition tactics in favor of offensive methods and close-quarter hostilities with the use of forces operating inside Israeli territory. The goal is also to create the image of victory and undermine the resolve of Israel's citizens. This change was clearly evident during the course of Operation Protective Edge, in terms of the tunnel tactics and the establishment of the special units for carrying out operations inside Israel.
At the same time, both Hezbollah and Hamas are focusing on striking at Israel with precise weapons – cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles and sophisticated rockets. One of the lessons the two organizations learned from Operation Protective Edge concerns the introduction of short-range missiles with large warheads that can destroy structures near the border – a move perceived during the fighting in Gaza as an essential element in terms of breaking the enemy's spirit. And indeed, Hezbollah has acquired Borkan missiles, which have a range of just 4-5 kilometers but are armed with a huge warhead.
The new military doctrine that Israel will face also involves the decentralization of the military forces it will encounter, with no clear-cut target or two on the other side that if taken out could leave the enemy unbalanced. The duration of the hostilities, too, is a crucial factor from the point of view of the enemy, which will try to spark more prolonged military campaigns.
Hezbollah is at the ready in southern Lebanon for the order from Iran, the moment Tehran feels threatened. The arming of Hezbollah is going ahead in keeping with a multi-year work plan. In Lebanon, the central government has very limited control over the nationalist cantons. For now, Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army are working together to curb Jabhat al-Nusra and the Lebanese global Jihad groups.
Another threat that could take Israel by surprise this year involves a cyber-attack: Israel must consider the real possibility that one day we'll wake up to an assault on our military and civilian systems. We witnessed the outcome of such an assault just recently in North Korea.
The criticism voiced from within the army against MI's annual assessment does not deal with the facts, and stems more from their interpretation instead. According to the detractors, MI's assessment for 2015 fails to see the opportunities and only perceives the threats, the half-empty cup. And perhaps, given Israel's lowly status in the international arena today, we can't afford to see the half-full one instead
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2)
By Richard Friedman, BJF Executive Director
It can be summed up this way: Current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is bad and he's a paranoid, xenophobic fascist. It's time for him to go. If those Israelis will just get it right this time, and elect a new government led by left of center leaders as opposed to Netanyahu's right wing Likud party, we will see the dawning of a new era in the Middle East including peace with the Palestinians.
It's fascinating.
Netanyahu, who has continually expressed his willingness to negotiate a two-state solution as long as security measures are in place to protect Israel and the agreement brings an end to the conflict, is constantly vilified. Also, in 2009, to encourage the Palestinians to participate in peace talks, he did something that is almost totally forgotten. He instituted a 10-month freeze on new construction in the West Bank; the Palestinians failed to respond to his overture. The way in which prominent journalists -- most recently, the New York Times' Roger Cohen -- generalize and write about Netanyahu reminds me of the way many in the media, as well as many American Jews, characterized Menachem Begin upon his becoming Israel's prime minister in 1977. Begin was painted as a radical, uncompromising Jewish nationalist incapable of reaching any accommodation with Israel's Arab neighbors. Yet it was Begin, in a page from the "only Nixon could go to China" playbook, who made peace with Egypt.
MUCH HAPPENING
Back to Netanyahu. Here is how Cohen began a recent New York Times column, written from Jerusalem: "Uneasiness inhabits Israel, a shadow beneath the polished surface. In a violent Middle Eastern neighborhood of fracturing states, that is perhaps inevitable, but Israelis are questioning their nation and its future with a particular insistence." Continues Cohen, "As the campaign for March elections begins, this disquiet looks like the precursor of political change. The status quo, with its bloody and inconclusive interludes, has become less bearable. More of the same has a name: Benjamin Netanyahu, now in his third term as prime minister. The alternative, although less clear, is no longer unthinkable." The column, which is highly critical of Netanyahu, is linked below. There is much that is happening, however, which Cohen omits, which, even if Netanyahu continues as prime minister, could dramatically affect the status quo.
A new Middle East is emerging, growing out of the continuing turbulence in the region. Egypt and Israel are arguably as close as they've ever been, though most of the cooperation takes place behind the scenes. Fear of the deadly terror group ISIS appears to be inching more Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, closer to Israel. Plus the Iranian nuclear menace and Iran's support for terror groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah hover over the region, creating additional anxieties among Arab leaders.
In addition, other significant factors may emerge these next few years which may further strengthen Israel's position in the Middle East. These include a large natural gas discovery; possible large-scale immigration of talented, educated Jews from Ukraine, France and other parts of Europe, due to anti-Semitism and economic instability; and expanded ties with India, China and Japan, a significant economic and diplomatic development.
INTERESTING & IMPORTANT
The upcoming Israeli election will be interesting and important. Netanyahu might wind up continuing as prime minister or he may not. Capable experienced leaders are heading the parties opposing Netanyahu. And they are promising a different direction and vision for the country. The view of The Birmingham Jewish Federation is this: We believe that Israel has the right to choose its own leaders. And once those leaders are chosen, it is our role to be educated, to understand the rationale and context behind the decisions and policies of the new government -- regardless of who and which party leads it -- and to explain them intelligently. Our purpose is not to promote a particular prime minister or government, but rather to promote a strong, informed and mutually-beneficial relationship between the US and Israel, a relationship that has benefited these two sister democracies immeasurably. So, my thought is this: Keep an eye on the Israeli elections, they are important; learn as much as possible; be wary of predictions as to what will happen if this leader or that leader winds up as prime minister, and remain skeptical of anything or anybody who already is forecasting the outcome and its aftermath.
2a) To whom it may concern in Europe and The U.S:
by Vic Rosenthal
We are tired of hearing that withdrawal from Judea and Samaria will bring peace. We know and you know that it would bring another Gaza. So stop saying it.
We are tired of hearing that land beyond the Green Line is ‘Palestinian land’. The Green Line is simply an armistice line that has no political significance. You know this too.
We are tired of hearing about the “Palestinian people.” They are no different from the Arabs of Syria or Egypt, from which most of their ancestors migrated in the last 150 years or so. There is no Palestinian language or religion, and until very recently they considered themselves simply ‘Arabs’. Their culture is almost entirely defined by their opposition to the Jewish state.
We are tired of hearing that “the Palestinians deserve a state.” We are indigenous here, not them, and their behavior entitles them more to a trial at The Hague than to a state. And they certainly don’t deserve our state, which is the only state they want.
We are tired of hearing about ‘The Occupation’. As Naftali Bennett said the other day, you can’t be an occupier in your own land.
We are tired of hearing that “settlements are illegal under international law.” They aren’t.
We are tired of hearing that “settlement construction is an obstacle to peace.” Arab rejectionism and terrorism is the reason there isn’t peace. By the way, we are pro-peace. We are just not pro-suicide.
We are tired of hearing about the 5 million (or whatever ridiculous number there are alleged to be) ‘Palestinian refugees’ or the ‘Palestinian diaspora’. There were about 700,000 Arabs that left their homes in 1948, mostly of their own volition, more or less at the same time as the 800,000 Jewish refugees from Arab countries. We resettled ours — resettle yours.
We are tired of hearing anything from anyone associated with the UN. The UN is a parasitic and criminal enterprise domina
ted by our mortal enemies.
We are tired of stupid post-colonialist rhetoric. We aren’t ‘colonists’ and Arabs don’t have the right to murder us in the name of ‘resistance’. Talking this way reveals you as moral imbeciles.
You can’t recognize a state that has no borders, no single government, and no economy.
We know we can’t depend on any kind of security guarantee from anyone except the IDF. So stop being insulted because we don’t trust you. And don’t ask us to give up any nuclear weapons we might or might not have.
We know that the left-wing parties in Israel are bankrupt of ideas. We aren’t going to vote for them, no matter how much you would like us to. So don’t bother trying to influence our election.
Don’t believe what you read in Ha’aretz.
Jerusalem, undivided, is the capital of the state of Israel. Get used to it, because you can’t change it.
Sincerely,
Ordinary Israelis
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3)Watchdog of the Week: CNN Acting “Brain Dead”
3) Former Democratic leaders:
“One man with courage makes a majority." ~ Andrew Jackson
"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself." ~ Franklin D. Roosevelt
"The buck stops here." ~ Harry S. Truman
"Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country." ~ John F. Kennedy
AND NOW:
Current Great Orators of the Democrat Party :
"It depends what your definition of 'is' is?'' ~ President William Jefferson Clinton
"That Obama... I would like to cut his nuts off." ~ Jesse Jackson, Sr.
"Those rumors are false. I believe in the sanctity of marriage." ~ John Edwards
"What difference does it make?" (re: Benghazi) ~ Hillary Clinton
"I invented the Internet." ~ Al Gore
"The next person that tells me I'm not religious, I'm going to shove my rosary beads up their a**." ~ Joe Biden
"America is, is no longer, uh, what it, uh, could be, uh, what it was once was, uh, and I say to myself, uh, I don't want that future, uh, for my children." ~ Barack Obama
"I have campaigned in all 57 states." ~ Barack Obama (Quoted 2008)
"You don't need God anymore; you have us Democrats." ~ Nancy Pelosi (Quoted 2006) (A really, really stupid remark.)
"Paying taxes is voluntary." ~ Sen. Harry Reid
"Bill is the greatest husband and father I know. No one is more faithful, true, and honest than he is."
~ Hillary Rodham Clinton (Quoted 1998)
"You have a business. You didn't build that. Someone else did!" ~ Barack Obama (Quoted 2012)
And the most ridiculous gem of wisdom, from the "Mother Superior Moron": "We just have to pass the Healthcare Bill to see what's in it." ~ Nancy Pelosi (Quoted March,2010)
(And as one perceptive Doctor said: And that is also the perfect definition of a stool sample.)
HOW FORTUNATE WE ARE TO HAVE SUCH BRILLIANT MINDS IN CHARGE OF OUR ONCE-GREAT COUNTRY!!
"Life is tough! It's even tougher when you're stupid.'' ~ John Wayne
"Life is tough! It's even tougher when you're stupid.'' ~ John Wayne
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