Saturday, May 30, 2020

Allowing Hot Heads To Destroy - I Do Not Understand This Policy.The Kadoorie Family.


Buy American - Rebuild America

And:

I do not understand a public policy that allows hot heads to destroy in the hope cooler heads will ultimately prevail. But then I  thought the '60's was a dangerous time and established unacceptable norms. So what do I know.

Twin Cities Cops Stand and Watch as Buildings Burn

Local business owners say they are willing to use force if necessary to keep their shops from being looted.

By Kyle Hooten

Minneapolis
Hennepin County prosecutors on Friday charged former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin with third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter in the death of George Floyd, 46. The white Mr. Chauvin was recorded Monday kneeling on the African-American Floyd’s neck for nearly nine minutes as he and three other officers tried to arrest him on suspicion of passing a counterfeit $20 bill. Floyd, who was struggling to breathe, repeatedly asked the officers to help him stand up and died after being taken into custody.
Each night since, the Twin Cities have burned. This isn’t the first time Minneapolis has experienced civil unrest with racial overtones. In the summer of 1967, young residents of North Minneapolis threw rocks, smashed windows and set fires to shops along Plymouth Avenue in protest against unjust conditions in the city’s black neighborhoods. Mayor Arthur Naftalin urged the police to show restraint, and the situation eased.
Minneapolis police have similarly taken a hands-off approach to this week’s rioting, which has destroyed roughly 130 local businesses, but the anger shows no sign of letting up. Downtown business owners—even those who stand against police brutality—have been fighting off looters with their bare hands. Some have taken up arms in defense of their establishments.
A local man posted a video to Snapchat Thursday showing four armed men guarding a stretch of black-owned businesses near where the riots were taking place. One of the men in the clip appeared to be wearing body armor and could be seen holding a Vector SDP, a gun the size of a small rifle that fires handgun caliber bullets. Two of the men in the clip appeared to hold AR-style pistols. The fourth man held an AK-style pistol at the high-ready position. A voice on the video could be heard warning looters to “run up in here and see what happens.”
Early Friday morning, as fires raged along the Lake Street corridor, the African-American owners of GM Tobacco told me they were armed and ready to protect their business—and that they stand in solidarity with those who seek justice for Floyd.
“This our home, this is where we live, this is where we shop,” one the men in front of the tobacco store said. “Our problem is they could have took it to the Capitol, could have took it to different places, but they took it here.” From the sidewalk in front of the tobacco shop I could see Minneapolis’s Third Police Precinct, which rioters set on fire.
“Why are you attacking small businesses and family owned businesses?” one of the men in front of the tobacco store said. “Why are you doing that if you have a problem with the police? We feel the same way that you feel.”
While the owners of the tobacco store avoided violent confrontation that night, the same couldn’t be said for the owner of Cadillac Pawn, who allegedly shot and killed Calvin Horton as he and others tried to loot his East Lake Street jewelry store. Hennepin County Jail records show that the 59-year-old owner was arrested.
Small-business owners aren’t the only ones packing heat. Minutes after I spoke with the tobacconists, I heard gunshots. As flames poured out of the Third Precinct, live streams showed several people brandishing firearms. One rioter suggested that he had recently acquired the gun he was holding, which looked to be a SIG Sauer P226—a law-enforcement and military favorite.
Dozens of shots could be heard Thursday night and into the early hours of Friday. Most bullets were presumably fired into the air, but the Star Tribune reported at least one gunshot victim had sought medical help overnight Thursday. “A gentleman pulled out a gun and started shooting in this direction,” the paper quoted a St. Paul resident as saying. “It’s just been crazy out here.”
Although Gov. Tim Walz has deployed some 500 members of the state’s National Guard to patrol Twin Cities streets, the police haven’t done much to protect businesses or bystanders. As the Third Precinct was under attack, a convoy of police vehicles was caught on video driving away. Early Thursday, I watched three looters carrying armfuls of goods jump into a getaway car. Dozens of police officers who were blocking access to an adjacent street stood by and let them go.

A Jewish Dynasty in a Changing China

For more than a century, the fortunes of the powerful Kadoorie family have been a barometer of Chinese openness to the world 

By Jonathan Kaufman



Since 1880, when an Iraqi Jewish refugee named Elly Kadoorie arrived in Hong Kong, China has gone through a series of revolutions—from domination by Western powers to independence, from Nationalist to Communist rule, from colonialism to capitalism to communism. Through it all, the Kadoorie family have been a barometer of the country’s openness to the world, rising to become the richest Western family in China. Leaders have been seeking their advice for generations, drawn by their combination of business skills and political acumen. Now, as China cracks down on dissent in Hong Kong and defiant protesters again take to the streets, the problem facing the family—like other companies and governments seeking to deal with a more repressive and nationalistic regime—is whether China will continue to welcome them.
The Kadoories built their first fortune in Shanghai between the world wars, when the city became a global crossroads. When the communists took over in 1949 and expelled foreigners, they lost almost everything, fleeing to British-ruled Hong Kong to make a new start. Over the next 25 years they grew richer than ever, amassing an $18 billion portfolio that includes China Light and Power, which provides electricity to 80% of Hong Kong’s residents, and the luxury Peninsula hotel chain.
When the People’s Republic began to open up in 1972, after President Nixon’s visit, one of the first calls the communist leadership made was to the Kadoories, seeking their help in building a nuclear power plant. The Kadoories, who remain British citizens, became one of the country’s biggest foreign investors, returning to Shanghai triumphantly to build a new Peninsula Hotel. Today they meet regularly with top Chinese leaders, including Xi Jinping.
It has been a steep ascent since Elly Kadoorie landed in Hong Kong at the age of 18. He had been recruited to work for a major trading firm owned by the Sassoons, another Jewish family that had come to China from Baghdad 35 years earlier, just after the Opium Wars. But Elly soon struck out on his own, steering clear of opium, one of the main commodities the Sassoons transported between India and China. Instead he invested in hotels, land and utilities, building the infrastructure for the growing city of Shanghai as it became the “Paris of the East.” In time he built the grandest mansion in the city—43 rooms for just three people—and entertained celebrities like Charles Lindbergh. The Kadoories’ hotels hosted the world’s elites, including the wedding of Chiang Kai-shek.


During World War II, the elderly Elly Kadoorie was imprisoned in a Japanese camp, and he died in captivity in 1944. Soon after the war ended, the Chinese communists swept through Shanghai, seizing the family’s buildings and art collection. Most Westerners in China, including the Sassoons, fled to Europe, Australia or the Americas. But Elly’s grown sons, Lawrence and Horace, stayed close by, moving to the family’s hotel in Hong Kong. “If we sit down and worry, not only will no progress be made but everything will get worse,” Lawrence wrote to Horace in 1946. “If we go ahead optimistically, and in the belief that Hong Kong has a great future before it…we shall recover our losses and progress.” Hong Kong, Lawrence declared, “may become another Shanghai.”
He turned out to be spectacularly correct. Over the next 70 years, through the Cold War and China’s economic rise, the Kadoories rebuilt their fortune in Hong Kong. They also concluded that businessmen of their father’s generation, isolated and wealthy, had been blind to the rise of communism and paid a terrible price. “The best protection against Communism is to provide living conditions that are better than those in China proper,” Lawrence declared. The Kadoories poured millions into helping displaced Chinese farmers and refugees set up small farms in Hong Kong. Research supported by the Kadoories led to the breeding of a new strain of pig that provided more meat for the city’s booming population. The Jewish Kadoories, the Chinese farmers joked, “know everything about the pig except the way it tastes.”
At the same time, the Kadoories were convinced that one day China would open up again. They maintained covert ties with the mainland and never publicly criticized the communist regime. The strategy paid off in 1978, when the Kadoories were welcomed back by Deng Xiaoping and invested a billion dollars in China’s first nuclear plant. Later they helped to keep Hong Kong calm as the British negotiated its handover to China, which took place in 1997. “You have always been a friend to China,” an aide to Xi Jinping told Michael Kadoorie, grandson of Elly and the current head of the family.


Michael Kadoorie still believes that Hong Kong’s business community must work with China. Last summer, as the city was racked by increasingly violent anti-China demonstrations, he wrote a full-page advertisement that ran in local English and Chinese newspapers. “It is disheartening to see what has overtaken the city recently,” he wrote. “I do not support violence nor do I believe this should be the way to resolve conflicts.” Instead, he pleaded, China must “find solutions in mutual respect, understanding and open dialogue.”
It’s a familiar dilemma for the Kadoories. Whenever China has been open and engaged with the world—in Shanghai in the 1920s and 1930s, in Hong Kong under British rule, and in mainland China after 1978—the family has prospered. Their success is a testament to China’s ability to absorb foreign influences and benefit from foreign investment. But as the country turns more assertive and nationalistic, the tightrope the Kadoories walk is growing thinner.

Mr. Kaufman is director of the School of Journalism at Northeastern University. This essay is adapted from his new book, “The Last Kings of Shanghai: The Rival Jewish Dynasties That Helped Create Modern China,” which will be published by Viking on June 2.
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More from Salena:


Bristol is like Elvis, so identifiable that it only goes by one name, and tickets are so revered they are often included in divorce settlements and family estate settlements.
My latest from Bristol Tennessee: By Salena Zito
Click here for the full story.
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If these are factual does it justify what happened?



BTW....wait until you read the REAL story of the "innocent man".....methinks, not so innocent.  In prison for five  years; held a gun to  a woman's tummy while looking for drugs in her home: spoke of feeling bad before they pinned him: medical reports apparently shows no strangulation; he fought with the officers; and medics now looking for why he felt like he couldn't breathe. They suspect drugs.....?  He seemed innocent.  All  he did was give a fake $20.00 bill to a kid in the store who demanded the cigarettes back, but didn't get them.

Holding an expected felon in a neck hold was/is not illegal in Minnesota.

After hearing an explanation and interpretation of the state statutes and watching the subsequent riots, I have become increasingly persuaded  charging the police with a higher level of crime would make obtaining  conviction  far more difficult .
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Goldwater Was Wrong Then and Should Be Even Now.


Buy America and Rebuild America

And:

Breaking: EPIC! Sen. John Kennedy Has PERFECT Reaction to Trump Standing Up to China
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Over the last few days we have witnessed public policies that I find abhorrent. Not only did we see videos of the death of a handcuffed citizen whose civil rights were abused but this wanton act was  followed by tolerance of intolerance in the form of riots, looting's and outright anarchism. There is nothing cool  about setting fire to property.

First progressives tell us we should not protect our borders, then we should allow sanctuary cities and now we have shut down an entire nation because of failed health policies in New York and California. Welcome to the world of affirmative action and elimination of the electoral college.

I remember the time when Americans rejected the advice of Sen. Goldwater who  said:   "Extremism in Defense of Liberty is No VICE."

Now we seem to allow the law of the jungle to rule as we stand down in order to let rioters go beyond their constitutional rights to engage in peaceful protest. A few bad apples can/will destroy entire orchards.

If this is the republic we have become we may no longer be worth saving.
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Friday, May 29, 2020

More Petty Blame and The Gotcha Game.


Buy American - Rebuild America
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"Obamagate" matters if you care about America: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/27/what the_obamagate_scandals_mean_and_why_they_matter.

And:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/obama-administration-scandals-coming-to-light-legacy-in-tatters/
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Every time a grievous injustice is committed and is followed by acts of rioting it serves to undercut the repulsive act and justified feelings of sympathy and outrage.  Outraged citizens still have a responsibility to act in a restrained manner.  Biden's piling on was another disgraceful display of petty intemperate behaviour.  Did he learn that from Obama?

If truth be known this civil rights abuse happened in Minneapolis, a Democrat city controlled for years by Democrat politicians who seemed to do little to resolve existing  racial discord and a police department that tolerated members with records of prior abuse. A few bad apples ruin a good orchard.

Meanwhile politicians, like Pocahontas, and certain members of the mass media continue to lay blame and play their gotcha game.
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Thursday, May 28, 2020

Today Is Significant As Trump Turns Exclusive Attention to China.


                                                                                    Pays to be certified.
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Buy American - Rebuild America
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There is one message Chinese leadership will understand and that is the withdrawal of production from   and commerce with China and engagement with new manufacturing and supply chains in other democratic nations.  The sooner the better.  China must be treated as the pariah it has chosen to become.

And:

Today I suspect Trump will reveal how he will now turn his focus exclusively on China and this is why he is planning to walk back from Afghanistan in the hope the picture there has been stabilized enough for us to end our policing.

Obviously Trump's initial overture has failed and China has chosen to take an aggressive path to bullying the world as they seek to supplant America.

Stay tuned.
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Another Salena Zito interview:

WARREN, Ohio-“There's not a clearer, more apparent illustration of the economic problem we have in this country."
My interview with Ohio congressman Tim Ryan about the economy &  the pandemic at his home in Warren:

Click here for the full story.
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In The Garden of Treason? Cyber Attacks - An Act of War?


                                                                                Blake graduates from kindergarten

Dagny loses more teeth.
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Buy American -  Rebuild America
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How deep to the roots of the Democrats and those in cahoots with the FBI go in the garden of treason?

Plot Against Flynn Aimed To Cripple Trump’s Moves In The Middle East

By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun
As Attorney General Barr and General Michael Flynn battle in court to rescind the general's guilty plea, a deeper look deserves to be taken at the phone conversations that underlay the controversy. The calls were, in part, meant to protect the incoming administration from an effort to cripple the Mideast policy on which Mr. Trump campaigned for office.
The effort to cripple Mr. Trump’s Mideast policy centered, in large part, on the UN Security Council’s Resolution 2334. There is a good account of this by Lee Smith, writing in Tablet Magazine. The resolution was designed to undercut Israel’s claims to Jerusalem. The general, in his guilty plea, claimed that he misled FBI agents when he told them that “on or about December 22 (2016), Flynn did not ask the Russian Ambassador to delay the vote on or defeat a pending United Nations Security Council resolution.”
Yet Mr. Flynn was absolutely right to undermine the resolution. Security Council resolution 2334 was widely seen as Mr. Obama’s parting shot against Benjamin Netanyahu. Mr. Obama was still fuming over the fact that Mr. Netanyahu had publicly denounced Mr. Obama’s articles of appeasement with Iran. Mr. Netanyahu saw the Iran deal as a threat to Israel. He marked the point memorably in his third speech to a joint meeting of Congress.
The real aim of 2334, though, was an attempt by Mr. Obama to tie the hands of the incoming Trump administration. It was particularly galling because Mr. Trump’s transition team — indeed, Mr. Trump himself during the campaign — had clearly signaled its intention to reverse Mr. Obama’s Israel policies.
Mr. Trump had specifically campaigned against the Obama administration’s view that Judea and Samaria and Jerusalem settlements were the top, perhaps only, stumbling block to peacemaking. Mr. Obama decided to forgo battles with Jerusalem-friendly lawmakers on Capitol Hill, where turning his Israel policy into a lasting legacy would be difficult. Instead, as in the Iran deal case, he turned to the friendly turf of the United Nations.
Ostensibly, resolution 2334 was an Egyptian idea. Cairo, as the Arab representative at the council, supposedly pushed a global condemnation of Israel’s settlement policies, rendering even Israel's hold on Judaism’s holiest sites illegal in international law. In reality, as several diplomats told me at the time, Washington conceived, shaped and pushed the resolution.
Unlike in the past, when the American team at UN headquarters would consult with Israeli counterparts on measures involving their county, Ambassador Samantha Power’s team refused to return Israeli diplomats’ phone calls. “It’s your guess how the Americans will vote, because they sure don’t talk to me,” a senior Israeli diplomat told me at the time. Frozen out of the process, Jerusalem then turned to the Trump team.
Mr. Flynn, according to his guilty plea, discussed the proposed resolution with the Russian ambassador in Washington at the time, Sergei Kislyak. He also tried his luck with UN representatives from then-council members Uruguay and Malaysia. Also, the President-elect’s adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, spoke with Britain’s ambassador in Washington, Kim Darroch.
Then Mr. Trump got on the blower, calling President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi. The Cairo strongman seemed to realize he’d be better off on the good side of a soon-to-be president than carrying water for a less-than-friendly Mr. Obama.
Shortly after that December 22, 2016, call, Egypt’s UN team withdrew its proposed “settlements resolution.” Still, Ms. Power’s pressure prevailed, as the resolution’s cosponsors — New Zealand, Malaysia, and Venezuela — scheduled the vote for the next day anyway.
On December 23, 14 council members raised their hand in favor of the anti-Israel resolution. Ms. Power abstained, breaking from a long tradition of American vetoes of resolutions regarding Israel.
So who was the villain here? Was it General Flynn, who tried to return America to its familiar position on Israel’s side, or Mr. Obama's aides, who used the United Nations to impose its failed policy on the incoming president?
Since Mr Flynn asked to rescind his guilty plea, much ink has been dedicated to the Logan Act — a law that since 1799 was tested only twice, yielding zero convictions.
Instead, Mr. Obama’s December 2016 maneuvering suggests a new act may be needed to regulate the actions of the presidency, rather than the citizens, during the lame duck transition period between the early November election and the late January inauguration.
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Are cyber attacks the equivalent of war? If not why not?

Israeli cyber chief: Attack on water systems ‘a changing point in cyber warfare’


Yigal Unna says attempted hacking into civilian systems, widely ascribed to Iran, marked a historic first, and could have resulted in disaster had it not been detected in time

By AP Today, 


Last month’s major cyber attack against Israel’s water systems was a “synchronized and organized attack” aimed at disrupting key national infrastructure, Israel’s national cyber chief said Thursday.
The assault has been widely attributed to Iran. Yigal Unna, who heads the National Cyber Directorate, did not mention Iran directly, nor did he comment on the alleged Israeli retaliation two weeks later said to have shut down a key Iranian port, but he said recent developments have ushered in a new era of covert warfare, ominously warning that “cyber winter is coming.”
“Rapid is not something that describes enough how fast and how crazy and hectic things are moving forward in cyberspace and I think we will remember this last month and May 2020 as a changing point in the history of modern cyber warfare,” he said in a video address to CybertechLive Asia, a digital international cyber conference.

“If the bad guys had succeeded in their plot we would now be facing, in the middle of the Corona crisis, very big damage to the civilian population and a lack of water and even worse than that,” he added.
Israel and Iran are bitter foes who have engaged in years of covert battles that have included high-tech hacking and cyber attacks. Most famously, US and Israeli intelligence agencies are suspected of unleashing a computer worm called Stuxnet years ago in an attempt to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program.
But Unna said the attempted hacking into Israel’s water systems marked the first time in modern history that “we can see something like this aiming to cause damage to real life and not to IT or data.”
Had Israel’s National Cyber Directorate not detected the attack in real time, he said chlorine or other chemicals could have been mixed into the water source in the wrong proportions and resulted in a “harmful and disastrous” outcome. His office released a brief statement after the attempt, acknowledged it had been thwarted and no damage had been caused. But Unna’s comments marked the first official detailed account of what happened.
“It is a part of some attack over Israel and over the national security of Israel and not for financial benefit,” he said. “The attack happened but the damage was prevented and that is our goal and our mission. And now we are in the middle of preparing for the next phase to come because it will come eventually.”
Iran hasn’t commented on the attempted hacking and has played down the alleged reprisal on May 9 against the Shahid Rajaee port. Mohammad Rastad, head of Iran’s port and marine agency, told the semiofficial ILNA news agency that the attack failed to infiltrate into the agency’s systems and only damaged “several private sector systems.”
Israel has not officially commented on the attack against Iran, but in an interview with Israel’s Army Radio, Amos Yadlin, a former head of military intelligence, said it was significant.
“The attack displayed the cyber ability of a world power. It appears that this was a clear Israeli message to Iran, don’t dare to touch civilian systems, the water and electricity systems in Israel, which were attacked this past month. You, the Iranians, are more vulnerable than we are,” he said.
Without discussing the attack directly, Unna said the past month marked a historic turning point in cyber warfare.
“Cyber winter is coming and coming even faster than I suspected,” he said. “We are just seeing the beginning.”
A television report earlier this month said Israeli leadership viewed the attempted attack on water systems as a significant escalation by Iran and a crossing of a red line because it targeted civil infrastructure.
“This is an attack that goes against all the codes of war. Even from the Iranians we didn’t expect something like this,” Channel 13 news quoted an official saying.

Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.
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Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Smiling Max. How Can You Trust China? They Sicken Me.


Happy Max at almost 1 year.

Buy American - Restore America

And:

In my previous memo I misspelled Sri Lanka.

Finally:

Trust China?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/26/cartoons-promise-reality-hong-kong-freedom/
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Truman was one of our greatest presidents in my humble opinion, for a variety of reasons. The ones I think that were among the the most important were: he knew history and was a simple man. While president he did not become a victim of or imbued with self-importance.  He remained a simple man.

This video tells an interesting story: https://aipac.hubs.vidyard.com/watch/0jZmnE_0O5QEtDoW8b9dOw
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Has the media passed the tipping point?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-liberal-leaning-media-has-passed-its-tipping-point-11590430876?mod=opinion_lead_pos6

And:

Our nation's cyber security lapses and deficiencies can no longer be ignored:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/24/us-cybersecurity-deficiencies-can-no-longer-be-ignored/
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Is Trump his own worst enemy or is writing about it a more subtle "Trojan Horse"  way of driving home the mass media's bias of damning by appearing empathetic?

A Disruptive President in a Storm of Crisis

Trump thrives on conflict but may pay a price for alienating America’s allies.

By Walter Russell Mead


With less than six months until the November elections, the Trump administration faces a concatenation of catastrophes, crises and critics. The most dangerous pandemic in a century has kicked off an economic crisis more serious than the Great Depression, and it’s happening against the backdrop of a toxic political atmosphere, a global crisis of confidence among America’s leading allies, and the possible start of a cold war with China. We’ve never seen anything like it.
A normal president would be crushed under the burden; Donald Trump is still tweeting and playing golf. To some degree, the crisis enveloping the country and his presidency is his natural milieu. Theatricality has always been central to Mr. Trump’s political method. As an insurgent populist candidate, and as an incumbent who nevertheless wants to run as an outsider fighting an entrenched system, he thrives on conflict and drama.
Yet even for Mr. Trump there can be too much of a good thing. The cascading crises ricocheting across the world threaten to become so acute and so overwhelming that they upstage him. Manageable crises can make a president look big; unmanageable ones can make him look small. For Mr. Trump, looking small would be fatal.
At home, the response to the pandemic, for better or for worse, seems increasingly independent of the briefings and tweets that come from the White House. In foreign affairs, other countries seem to be paying less attention to Mr. Trump these days. An oil tanker from Iran, sent in defiance of administration warnings, docked umolested in Venezuela. North Korea is making noises about doubling down on its nuclear program. China has defied Western pressure over Hong Kong, intensified its global propaganda campaign, and ratcheted up its military pressure on the Indian border.
The international crises come at a time when Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is contending with a congressional investigation of his role in the president’s decision to fire the department’s inspector general. The building is in revolt and the press hounds are baying on his trail, yet Mr. Pompeo’s biggest problem isn’t a stream of news stories that will likely get little attention beyond the Beltway. His biggest problem is the narrowing path for American diplomacy abroad.
Mr. Trump’s first wave of top national-security aides saw their task as trying to impose a conventional foreign policy on an unconventional president. Sometime during his first 18 months in office, the president decided that he no longer needed tutelage and looked for people who would implement his policy wishes, however unconventional. Mr. Pompeo, among others, took up this task, hoping to develop a policy framework around the president’s intuitions that would work both in the Oval Office and in the wider world. This isn’t an easy thing to do, as Mr. Trump’s instincts often work at cross-purposes.
Take China policy. Mr. Trump clearly believes that economic power is the key to national strength and that enhancing America’s economic vitality is necessary to maintain the country’s position in years to come. He also believes that under its current leadership China is a threat to American security and world peace. But Mr. Trump and his aides alike struggle to create a coherent policy around these ideas, in large part because the economic strategy and the China strategy, while they overlap in places, don’t ultimately mesh.
For Mr. Trump, restoring American economic strength involves fighting what he sees as a profoundly unfair global trading system and the major abuses of that system both by adversaries like China and friends like Germany, India, South Korea and Japan. Mr. Trump’s security concerns about China highlight a need for deeper relations with key allies, but his concerns about the foundations of American power lead to bitter quarrels with those allies he needs the most.
Neither the president nor his aides have been able to resolve this issue, and inconsistency has taken a heavy toll on American credibility. Mr. Pompeo’s predecessor, Rex Tillerson, lost the confidence of foreign leaders because he was seen not to have Mr. Trump’s ear; now the administration as a whole is losing respect because too many foreign leaders, friendly and otherwise, have concluded that Mr. Trump’s policies don’t add up.

“To govern is to choose,” said Pierre Mendès-France. Mr. Trump has a choice to make. Will he restore and reactivate America’s economic and security alliance networks in the interest of a coherent China strategy, even at the cost of deferring other goals? Or will he cling to the role of global disrupter in the face of the greatest storm since World War II?
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The best thing for America is a steady recovery, no return of the Coronavirus and Trump's re-election.

The Democrats are doing everything in their power to prevent a strong recovery because it would inure to Trump's benefit so they and the mass media will continue to  pick at everything he does.

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading
"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama. 
By RYAN LIZZA and DANIEL LIPPMAN 

In early April, Jason Furman, a top economist in the Obama administration and now a professor at Harvard, was speaking via Zoom to a large bipartisan group of top officials from both parties. The economy had just been shut down, unemployment was spiking, and some policymakers were predicting an era worse than the Great Depression. The economic carnage seemed likely to doom President Donald Trump’s chances at reelection.

Furman, tapped to give the opening presentation, looked into his screen of poorly lit boxes of frightened wonks and made a startling claim.

“We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country,” he said.

The former cabinet secretaries and Federal Reserve chairs in the Zoom boxes were confused, though some of the Republicans may have been newly relieved and some of the Democrats suddenly concerned.

“Everyone looked puzzled and thought I had misspoken,” Furman said in an interview. Instead of forecasting a prolonged depression-level economic catastrophe, Jason Furman laid out a detailed case for why the months preceding the November election could offer Trump the chance to brag — truthfully — about the most explosive monthly employment numbers and GDP growth ever.

Since the Zoom call, Furman has been making the same case to anyone who will listen, especially the close-knit network of Democratic wonks who have traversed the Clinton and Obama administrations together, including top members of the Biden campaign

Furman’s counterintuitive pitch has caused some Democrats, especially Obama alumni, around Washington to panic. “This is my big worry,” said a former Obama White House official who is still close to the former president. Asked about the level of concern among top party officials, he said, “It’s high — high, high, high, high.” 

And top policy officials on the Biden campaign are preparing for a fall economic debate that might look very different than the one predicted at the start of the pandemic in March. “They are very much aware of this,” said an informal adviser.

Furman’s case begins with the premise that the 2020 pandemic-triggered economic collapse is categorically different than the Great Depression or the Great Recession, which both had slow, grinding recoveries.

Instead, he believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep rebound.

The Covid-19 recession started with a sudden shuttering of many businesses, a nationwide decline in consumption, and massive increase in unemployment. But starting around April 15, when economic reopening started to spread but the overall numbers still looked grim, Furman noticed some data that pointed to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a hurricane or industry-wide catastrophe like the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Consumption and hiring started to tick up “in gross terms, not in net terms,” Furman said, describing the phenomenon as a “partial rebound.” The bounce back “can be very very fast, because people go back to their original job, they get called back from furlough, you put the lights back on in your business. Given how many people were furloughed and how many businesses were closed you can get a big jump out of that. It will look like a V.”

Furman’s argument is not that different from the one made by White House economic advisers and Trump, who have predicted an explosive third quarter, and senior adviser Jared Kushner, who said in late April that "the hope is that by July the country's really rocking again." White House officials were thrilled to hear that some of their views have been endorsed by prominent Democrats.

“I totally agree,” Larry Kudlow, the head of the White House National Economic Council, replied in a text message when asked about Furman’s analysis. “Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.” He called Furman, who he said he knows well, “usually a straight shooter. Hats off to him.”

“I have been saying that on TV as well,” said Kevin Hassett, a top Trump economic adviser, who pointed to a Congressional Budget Office analysis predicting a 21.5% annualized growth rate in the third quarter. “If CBO is correct we will see the strongest quarter in history after the weakest in Q2.”

Peter Navarro, a Trump trade and manufacturing adviser who is a Harvard-educated economist, called the high unemployment America is currently facing "manufactured unemployment, which is to say that Americans are out of work not because of any underlying economic weaknesses but to save American lives. It is this observation that gives us the best chance and hope for a relatively rapid recovery as the economy reopens."

(Asked about his new fans in the White House, Furman responded, “They get the rebound part, but they don’t get the partial part.”)

A rebound won’t mean that Trump has solved many underlying problems. Since the crisis started, many employers have gone bankrupt. Others have used the pandemic to downsize. Consumption and travel will likely remain lower. Millions of people in industries like hospitality and tourism will need to find new jobs in new industries.

The scenario would be a major long-term problem for any president. But before that reality sets in, Trump could be poised to benefit from the dramatic numbers produced during the partial rebound phase that is likely to coincide with the four months before November.


That realization has many Democrats spooked. 

“In absolute terms, the economy will look historically terrible come November,” said Kenneth Baer, a Democratic strategist who worked in a senior role at the Office of Management and Budget under Obama. “But relative to the depths of April, it will be on an upswing — 12% unemployment, for example, is better than 20%, but historically terrible. On Election Day, we Democrats need voters to ask themselves, ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?’ Republicans need voters to ask themselves, ‘Are you better off than you were four months ago?’”

One progressive Democratic operative pointed out that recent polling, taken during the nadir of the crisis, shows Biden is struggling to best Trump on who is more trusted to handle the economy. “Trump beats Biden on the economy even right now!” he said. “This is going to be extremely difficult no matter what. It’s existential that we figure it out. In any of these economic scenarios Democrats are going to have to win the argument that our public health and economy are much worse off because of Donald Trump’s failure of leadership.”

The former Obama White House official said, “Even today when we are at over 20 million unemployed Trump gets high marks on the economy, so I can’t imagine what it looks like when things go in the other direction. I don’t think this is a challenge for the Biden campaign. This is the challenge for the Biden campaign. If they can’t figure this out they should all just go home.”

The Biden campaign seems to recognize the challenge. “The way that Biden talks about the economy is not just tied to the Covid crisis, it’s also about the things that Donald Trump has done to undermine working people since the day he took office,” said Kate Bedingfield, Biden’s deputy campaign manager. “But secondly, it’s also highly likely that under any economic circumstances in the fall, Trump is likely going to be the first modern president to preside over net job loss.”

Between now and Election Day, there will be five monthly jobs reports, which are released on the first Friday of every month. The June report, covering May, is likely to show another increase in unemployment. But after that, Furman predicts, if reopening continues apace, the next four reports could be blockbusters. “You could easily have one to two million jobs created a month in those four reports before November,” he said.

He added, “And then toward the end of October, we will get GDP growth for the third quarter, at an annualized rate, and it could be double-digit positive economic growth. So these will be the best jobs and growth numbers ever.”

Furman noted that there is one major obvious caveat: “If there’s a second wave of the virus and a really serious set of lockdowns, I wouldn’t expect to see this. But I think the most likely case is the one I just laid out.”

When Obama ran for re-election in 2012, during the recovery from the Great Recession, he was able to point out that the unemployment rate was dropping about one point every year. But in a V-shaped recovery it would be much faster. “The Trump argument will be he’s producing the fastest job growth and fastest economic growth in history. If he has any ability to do nuance he would say, ‘We are not there yet, reelect me to finish the job,’” Furman said. “The Biden argument will be the unemployment rate is still 12% and even with those millions of jobs we are still down 15 million jobs and the only way for this to be fixed is new economic policies.”

Austan Goolsbee, a predecessor to Furman as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Obama White House, said the recovery would be more like a reverse checkmark, rather than a V, and that Biden and Democrats would need to point out that the explosive numbers predicted for the late summer and fall will not erase all of the damage. 

“I view it as Trump left the door open and five rats came into the kitchen and you’re going to brag, ‘Look I got two of the rats out?’” Goolsbee said. “There’s a high risk you look completely out of touch if you still have double-digit unemployment rates.”

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), who is close to Biden, said he's been studying numerous economic forecasts and isn’t convinced that a V-shaped rebound is certain. “It seems pretty unlikely to me that we’re going to have a really robust recovery in the next few months,” he said. “Of course, we all hope there will be. Frankly, no matter what the recovery looks like, I expect President Trump to either take credit for things he had nothing to do with or to avoid blame for things he helped cause.”

Furman is an economist, but he had some strategic advice for the Biden campaign. “Don’t make predictions that could be falsified. There are enough terrible things to say you don’t need to make exaggerated predictions,” he said. “The argument that we are in another Great Depression will look like it was overstated. Trump can say, ‘Two million deaths didn’t happen, Great Depression didn’t happen, we are making a lot of progress.’”
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Trump is one of the hardest working presidents ever and one of the most persecuted so if he chooses to relax a play some golf so be it.  He also has a tremendous amount of issues on his plate but he never seems to complain.  He simply tackles them in a general good spirit. The mass media, however, never relent. They sicken me.

Media Calls Trump Golf Outing a “Mortal Sin”, Ignores Obama’s Frequent Golf Trips - Read More

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