Mosab Yousef, was an Israeli
Shin Bet agent from 1997
to 2007, and is better known as the “Green Prince,” the son of West Bank Hamas chief Sheikh Hasan Yousef.
Mosab now lives in America and urges Israel to destroy Hamas now! (See 1 below.
===
Telling it like it is. and should be told as only Ron Prosor can!
If you want something worthwhile to read, spend a few minutes and read this speech delivered to the UN General Assembly by Israel’s Ambassador to the UN.
Question of Palestine Debat (See 2 below.)
===
I love to drive and I am the one generally doing it but then there are those others:
http://twentytwowords.com/husbands-frustrated-rant-is-mildly-amusing-at-first-then-its-hilarious/
===
Iran will become a nuclear nation because Obama has not desire or plan to prevent them. (See 3 below.)
===
Dick
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1)Destroy Hamas in Gaza now, urges the ‘Green Prince’
Israel’s ceasefire policy with Hamas is fundamentally mistaken, says the son of the Islamist group’s West Bank chief. It simply
gives Hamas time to rearm, when it can and must be urgently uprooted.
“To get to peace with the Palestinians, Israel needs to go to war against Hamas in Gaza, and fast.”
That’s the view of Mosab Hasan Yousef, better known as the “Green Prince,” the son of West Bank Hamas chief Sheikh Hasan Yousef.
Mosab Yousef, who was a
Shin Bet agent from 1997
to 2007, at the same time as he ran his father’s office, is well aware
of the significance of what he is saying. “I know that this will sound
to some people like dangerous rhetoric, a push
for war, but my motivation is precisely the opposite. I’m speaking out
because you can’t deal with reality by running away from it. You can’t
take refuge in temporary solutions. Hamas has to be tackled at its
roots, uprooted once and for all, and now is the
perfect moment to deal with Hamas militarily in Gaza. The longer Israel
waits,” he warned, “the more dangerous an enemy Hamas will become and
the harder the battle. This is the time to initiate a war against
Hamas.”
Now
based in the US, Mosab Yusef is currently on a visit to Israel, and I
met with him in Tel Aviv. It was five years ago
that I first revealed that he was an agent assisting the Shin Bet —
Israel’s most reliable source in Hamas, central to the prevention of
numerous suicide bombings and attacks, and to the exposure of Hamas
terror cells — and the identity of his handler, “Captain
Loai,” Gonen Ben Itzhak. As we sat together near the Tel Aviv beach,
his criticisms of Israeli government policy were clear and fierce.
“Don’t
wait for the summer for Hamas to surprise you again,” he urged. “Hit
them this winter when they’re not ready. If you
can solve the problem of Hamas in Gaza, that will pave the way forward
regarding the Palestinians in the West Bank and Abu Mazen (Palestinian
Authority President Mahmoud Abbas), who is currently replicating methods
that remind me of the days of the Second
Intifada and Yasser Arafat.
The Green Prince film poster
“The
people throwing stones and petrol bombs in Jerusalem, and carrying out
terrorist attacks, think that Israel is weak.
It’s precisely now that Israel needs to show its strength,” he
insisted, “while also acting responsibly and avoiding harm to civilians
because that serves Hamas.”
In
Mosab Yousef’s view, “the policy of having a ceasefire with Hamas”
since the summer’s war, and in previous lulls between
conflict, “is fundamentally wrong. These ceasefires only enable Hamas
to rebuild its strength, politically and militarily,” he noted.
Israel
needs to “reevaluate its approach,” he said. “Hamas is not an
organization with political imperatives, acting out of
political interests. It is first and foremost an ideological movement,
and there can be no negotiating or compromising with it. It cannot be
appeased through diplomatic compromise. Israel’s leaders have found what
they wrongly consider to be a magical solution
through temporary ceasefires to what is actually a strategic problem —
facing a foul and highly dangerous terror organization. The Israeli
government needs to acknowledge its mistake and change its strategy.
Negotiating with Hamas — via a third party, openly
or covertly, with or without mediators — is a mistake. You are just
strengthening Hamas and its strategy.”
‘You don’t understand how much the people of Gaza dislike Hamas, even hate it, and Hamas fears a protracted struggle with
Israel because it does not have a real capacity to stand firm’
A
convert to Christianity whose 2010 autobiography, “Son of Hamas: A
Gripping Account of Terror, Betrayal, Political Intrigue,
and Unthinkable Choices,” was made into an acclaimed documentary
released this year, the Green Prince has changed physically over the
years, almost beyond recognition. He practices yoga every day, he
meditates. It’s hard to believe that this is the hulking
young man who ran the office of the head of Hamas in the West Bank.
He is trying to keep a low profile on this visit to Israel, but without much success. He says people stop him in the street.
“You’ve become a celebrity,” I tell him.
He tells me that the owner of a restaurant in Tel Aviv, recognizing him, asked him to come and eat at his restaurant. “He
told me that he insists. I told him I just wasn’t hungry,” Mosab Yousef said with a smile.
Returning to his theme, he said he was not recommending “a major ground offensive” in Gaza “because that will just play into
Hamas’s hands…
“Israel
shouldn’t go into Gaza. It needs to avoid that trap. It also shouldn’t
declare war. It should just attack, to make
Hamas bleed and die. That’s their strategy and it’s the strategy that
will defeat them. It needs to be a surprise move, targeting their top
echelons. And there needs to be cooperation with Egypt, to block the
smuggling into Gaza, in order to cut off their
supplies of weapons and of material for making weapons.”
Once that cooperation is in place, he recommended, “start a military operation, without announcing it, targeting everything
connected to Hamas, without hitting civilian targets.”
Doubtless
Hamas would respond with rocket fire. But “for how long would they be
able to continue firing rockets at Israel?”
he asked. “If the borders are controlled, Hamas will eventually die and
the Israeli public needs to know this. Still, the Israeli public will
also have to demonstrate considerable patience. For this will not be a
war solely involving the Israeli intelligence
services and the Israeli army, but everybody.”
Arab residents of Jerusalem ‘have to make up their minds about where they want to live, in Israel or outside it. Those who
live here need to show their loyalty’
His
voice rising with passion, Mosab Yousef continued: “You don’t
understand how much the people of Gaza dislike Hamas, even
hate it, and Hamas fears a protracted struggle with Israel because it
does not have a real capacity to stand firm. That’s why the effort has
to be focused on their leadership and on their military wing. Make the
lives of the heads of the organization hell.
Blow them up in their houses, in the tunnels. And I’m not just talking
about air attacks.”
If
Israel were to follow this policy, he argued, “the international
community will not come out against Israel, and support
for Hamas in Gaza will decline. At the same time, you have to
continually supply humanitarian assistance to Gaza so that the people
there know that there is no intention of fighting the Palestinian
people, just Hamas.”
I asked Mosab Yousef for his thoughts on the nascent Third Intifada, wondering whether he believes Israel should be reopening
negotiations with Abbas.
‘Abbas is repeating Arafat’s mistakes. He’s manipulating. He knows Israel is not to blame for the situation in Gaza and yet
he accuses it of responsibility. But he won’t be able to control the international community forever’
“The
Israelis have to stop being scared, and to demonstrate strength and
determination,” he replied. “And the (Arab) residents
of Jerusalem have to make up their minds about where they want to live,
in Israel or outside it. Those who live here need to show their
loyalty.”
As
for Abbas, said Mosab Yousef, “he’s not ready for negotiations right
now. He’s repeating Arafat’s mistakes. He’s manipulating.
He knows Israel is not to blame for the situation in Gaza and yet he
accuses it of responsibility. But he won’t be able to control the
international community forever.”
In
a few years’ time, said Mosab Yousef, “when Islamic State starts to
hurt people in Europe, the Europeans won’t have any
more patience for the attacks and the duplicity, just as was the case
with Arafat after 9/11. The free world will understand that it is in a
battle against ideological organizations employing terrorism, and it
will change its attitude to the Palestinians and
to Abbas.”
But until then, he repeated, “Israel needs to carry out a thorough operation in Gaza, and in so doing make clear to Abbas
what the right path is. It’s the path of peace.”
Avi Issacharoff
Avi Issacharoff, The Times of Israel's Middle East analyst, fills
the same role for Walla, the leading portal in Israel. … He is also a
guest commentator on many different radio shows and current affairs
programs on television. Until 2012, he was a reporter
and commentator on Arab affairs for the Haaretz newspaper. He also
lectures on modern Palestinian history at Tel Aviv University, and is
currently writing a script for an action-drama series for the Israeli
satellite Television "YES." Born in Jerusalem, he
graduated cum laude from Ben Gurion University with a B.A. in Middle
Eastern studies and then earned his M.A. from Tel Aviv University on the
same subject, also cum laude. A fluent Arabic speaker, Avi was the
Middle East Affairs correspondent for Israeli Public
Radio covering the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the war in Iraq and
the Arab countries between the years 2003-2006. Avi directed and edited
short documentary films on Israeli television programs dealing with the
Middle East. In 2002 he won the "best reporter"
award for the "Israel Radio” for his coverage of the second intifada.
In 2004, together with Amos Harel, he wrote "The Seventh War - How we
won and why we lost the war with the Palestinians." A year later the
book won an award from the Institute for Strategic
Studies for containing the best research on security affairs in Israel.
In 2008, Issacharoff and Harel published their second book, entitled
"34 Days - The Story of the Second Lebanon War," which won the same
prize.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2)
Delivered to UN General Assembly at around 4:00 PM today (Nov 24/14) by Ambassador Ron Prosor
I
stand before the world as a proud representative of the State of Israel
and the Jewish people. I stand tall before you knowing that truth and
morality are on my side. And yet, I stand here knowing that today in
this Assembly, truth will be turned on its head and morality cast aside.
The
fact of the matter is that when members of the international community
speak about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a fog descends to cloud
all logic and moral clarity. The result isn’t realpolitik, its
surrealpolitik.
The
world’s unrelenting focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is an
injustice to tens of millions of victims of tyranny and terrorism in the
Middle East. As we speak, Yazidis, Bahai, Kurds, Christians and Muslims
are being executed and expelled by radical extremists at a rate of
1,000 people per month.
How
many resolutions did you pass last week to address this crisis? And
how many special sessions did you call for? The answer is zero. What
does this say about international concern for human life? Not much, but
it speaks volumes about the hypocrisy of the international community.
I stand before you to speak the truth. Of the 300 million Arabs in the Middle East and North Africa, less than half a percent are truly free - and they are all citizens of Israel.
Israeli
Arabs are some of the most educated Arabs in the world. They are our
leading physicians and surgeons, they are elected to our parliament, and
they serve as judges on our Supreme Court. Millions of men and women
in the Middle East would welcome these opportunities and freedoms.
Nonetheless,
nation after nation, will stand at this podium today and criticize
Israel – the small island of democracy in a region plagued by tyranny
and oppression.
Our
conflict has never been about the establishment of a Palestinian
state. It has always been about the existence of the Jewish state.
Sixty
seven years ago this week, on November 29, 1947, the United Nations
voted to partition the land into a Jewish state and an Arab state.
Simple. The Jews said yes. The Arabs said no. But they didn’t just say
no. Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon launched a war
of annihilation against our newborn state.
This
is the historical truth that the Arabs are trying to distort. The
Arabs’ historic mistake continues to be felt – in lives lost in war,
lives lost to terrorism, and lives scarred by the Arab’s narrow
political interests.
According
to the United Nations, about 700,000 Palestinians were displaced in the
war initiated by the Arabs themselves. At the same time, some 850,000
Jews were forced to flee from Arab countries.
Why
is it, that 67 years later, the displacement of the Jews has been
completely forgotten by this institution while the displacement of the
Palestinians is the subject of an annual debate?
The difference is that Israel did its utmost to integrate the Jewish refugees into society. The Arabs did just the opposite.
The worst oppression of the Palestinian people takes place in Arab nations. In
most of the Arab world, Palestinians are denied citizenship and are
aggressively discriminated against. They are barred from owning land
and prevented from entering certain professions.
And yet none - not one - of these crimes are mentioned in the resolutions before you.
If
you were truly concerned about the plight of the Palestinian people
there would be one, just one, resolution to address the thousands of
Palestinians killed in Syria. And if you were so truly concerned about
the Palestinians there would be at least one resolution to denounce the
treatment of Palestinians in Lebanese refugee camps.
But
there isn’t. The reason is that today’s debate is not about speaking
for peace or speaking for the Palestinian people – it is about speaking
against Israel. It is nothing but a hate and bashing festival against
Israel.
The
European nations claim to stand for Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité -
freedom, equality, and brotherhood – but nothing could be farther from
the truth.
I
often hear European leaders proclaim that Israel has the right to exist
in secure borders. That’s very nice. But I have to say – it makes
about as much sense as me standing here and proclaiming Sweden’s right
to exist in secure borders.
When it comes to matters of security, Israel learned the hard way that we cannot rely on others – certainly not Europe.
In
1973, on Yom Kippur – the holiest day on the Jewish calendar - the
surrounding Arab nations launched an attack against Israel. In the hours
before the war began, Golda Meir, our Prime Minister then, made the
difficult decision not to launch a preemptive strike. The Israeli
Government understood that if we launched a preemptive strike, we would
lose the support of the international community.
As
the Arab armies advanced on every front, the situation in Israel grew
dire. Our casualty count was growing and we were running dangerously low
on weapons and ammunition. In this, our hour of need, President Nixon
and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, agreed to send Galaxy planes
loaded with tanks and ammunition to resupply our troops. The only
problem was that the Galaxy planes needed to refuel on route to Israel.
The
Arab States were closing in and our very existence was threatened – and
yet, Europe was not even willing to let the planes refuel. The U.S.
stepped in once again and negotiated that the planes be allowed to
refuel in the Azores.
The
government and people of Israel will never forget that when our very
existence was at stake, only one country came to our aid – the United
States of America.
Israel
is tired of hollow promises from European leaders. The Jewish people
have a long memory. We will never ever forget that you failed us in the
1940s. You failed us in 1973. And you are failing us again today.
Every
European parliament that voted to prematurely and unilaterally
recognize a Palestinian state is giving the Palestinians exactly what
they want - statehood without peace. By handing them a state on a
silver platter, you are rewarding unilateral actions and taking away any
incentive for the Palestinians to negotiate or compromise or renounce
violence. You are sending the message that the Palestinian Authority
can sit in a government with terrorists and incite violence against
Israel without paying any price.
The
first E.U. member to officially recognize a Palestinian state was
Sweden. One has to wonder why the Swedish Government was so anxious to
take this step. When it comes to other conflicts in our region, the
Swedish Government calls for direct negotiations between the parties –
but for the Palestinians, surprise, surprise, they roll out the red
carpet.
State
Secretary Söder may think she is here to celebrate her government’s
so-called historic recognition, when in reality it’s nothing more than
an historic mistake.
The
Swedish Government may host the Nobel Prize ceremony, but there is
nothing noble about their cynical political campaign to appease the
Arabs in order to get a seat on the Security Council. Nations on the
Security Council should have sense, sensitivity, and sensibility. Well, the Swedish Government has shown no sense, no sensitivity and no sensibility. Just nonsense.
Israel
learned the hard way that listening to the international community can
bring about devastating consequences. In 2005, we unilaterally
dismantled every settlement and removed every citizen from the Gaza
Strip. Did this bring us any closer to peace? Not at all. It paved the
way for Iran to send its terrorist proxies to establish a terror
stronghold on our doorstep.
I can assure you that we won’t make the same mistake again. When it comes to our security, we cannot and will not rely on others – Israel must be able to defend itself by itself.
The
State of Israel is the land of our forefathers – Abraham, Isaac, and
Jacob. It is the land where Moses led the Jewish people, where David
built his palace, where Solomon built the Jewish Temple, and where
Isaiah saw a vision of eternal peace.
For
thousands of years, Jews have lived continuously in the land of
Israel. We endured through the rise and fall of the Assyrian,
Babylonian, Greek and Roman Empires. And we endured through thousands
of years of persecution, expulsions and crusades. The bond between the
Jewish people and the Jewish land is unbreakable.
Nothing can change one simple truth - Israel is our home and Jerusalem is our eternal capital.
At
the same time, we recognize that Jerusalem has special meaning for
other faiths. Under Israeli sovereignty, all people – and I will repeat
that, all people - regardless of religion and nationality can visit the
city’s holy sites. And we intend to keep it this way. The only ones
trying to change the status quo on the Temple Mount are Palestinian
leaders.
President
Abbas is telling his people that Jews are contaminating the Temple
Mount. He has called for days of rage and urged Palestinians to prevent
Jews from visiting the Temple Mount using (quote) “all means”
necessary. These words are as irresponsible as they are unacceptable.
You
don’t have to be Catholic to visit the Vatican, you don’t have to be
Jewish to visit the Western Wall, but some Palestinians would like to
see the day when only Muslims can visit the Temple Mount.
You,
the international community, are lending a hand to extremists and
fanatics. You, who preach tolerance and religious freedom, should be
ashamed. Israel will never let this happen. We will make sure that the
holy places remain open to all people of all faiths for all time.
No
one wants peace more than Israel. No one needs to explain the
importance of peace to parents who have sent their child to defend our
homeland. No one knows the stakes of success or failure better than we
Israelis do. The people of Israel have shed too many tears and buried
too many sons and daughters.
We
are ready for peace, but we are not naïve. Israel’s security is
paramount. Only a strong and secure Israel can achieve a comprehensive
peace.
The
past month should make it clear to anyone that Israel has immediate and
pressing security needs. In recent weeks, Palestinian terrorists have
shot and stabbed our citizens and twice driven their cars into crowds of
pedestrians. Just a few days ago, terrorists armed with axes and a gun
savagely attacked Jewish worshipers during morning prayers. We have
reached the point when Israelis can’t even find sanctuary from terrorism
in the sanctuary of a synagogue.
These attacks didn’t emerge out of a vacuum. They are the results of years of indoctrination and incitement. A Jewish proverb teaches: “The instruments of both death and life are in the power of the tongue.”
As a Jew and as an Israeli, I know with utter certainly that when our enemies say they want to attack us, they mean it.
Hamas’s genocidal charter calls for the destruction of Israel and the murder of Jews worldwide.
For years, Hamas and other terrorist groups have sent suicide bombers
into our cities, launched rockets into our towns, and sent terrorists to
kidnap and murder our citizens.
And what about the Palestinian Authority? It is leading a systemic campaign of incitement. In
schools, children are being taught that ‘Palestine’ will stretch from
the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. In mosques, religious
leaders are spreading vicious libels accusing Jews of destroying Muslim
holy sites. In sports stadiums, teams are named after terrorists. And
in newspapers, cartoons urge Palestinians to commit terror attacks
against Israelis.
Children in most of the world grow up watching cartoons of Mickey Mouse singing and dancing. Palestinian
children also grow up watching Mickey Mouse, but on Palestinians
national television, a twisted figure dressed as Mickey Mouse dances in
an explosive belt and chants “Death to America and death to the Jews.”
I
challenge you to stand up here today and do something constructive for a
change. Publically denounce the violence, denounce the incitement, and
denounce the culture of hate.
Most
people believe that at its core, the conflict is a battle between Jews
and Arabs or Israelis and Palestinians. They are wrong. The battle that we are witnessing is a battle between those who sanctify life and those who celebrate death.
Following
the savage attack in a Jerusalem synagogue, celebrations erupted in
Palestinian towns and villages. People were dancing in the street and
distributing candy. Young men posed with axes, loudspeakers at mosques
called out congratulations, and the terrorists were hailed as “martyrs”
and “heroes.”
This
isn’t the first time that we saw the Palestinians celebrate the murder
of innocent civilians. We saw them rejoice after every terrorist attack
on Israeli civilians and they even took to the streets to celebrate the
September 11 attack on the World Trade Center right here in New York City.
Imagine
the type of state this society would produce. Does the Middle East
really need another terror-ocracy? Some members of the international
community are aiding and abetting its creation.
As
we came into the United Nations, we passed the flags of all 193 member
States. If you take the time to count, you will discover that there are
15 flags with a crescent and 25 flags with a cross. And then there is
one flag with a Jewish Star of David. Amidst all the nations of the world there is one state – just one small nation state for the Jewish people.
And for some people, that is one too many.
As
I stand before you today I am reminded of all the years when Jewish
people paid for the world’s ignorance and indifference in blood. Those
days are no more.
We
will never apologize for being a free and independent people in our
sovereign state. And we will never apologize for defending ourselves.
To the nations that continue to allow prejudice to prevail over truth, I say “J’accuse.”
I accuse you of hypocrisy. I accuse you of duplicity.
I accuse you of lending legitimacy to those who seek to destroy our State.
I accuse you of speaking about Israel’s right of self-defense in theory, but denying it in practice.
And I accuse you of demanding concessions from Israel, but asking nothing of the Palestinians.
In the face of these offenses, the verdict is clear. You are not for peace and you are not for the Palestinian people. You are simply against Israel.
Members of the international community have a choice to make.
You
can recognize Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people, or
permit the Palestinian leadership to deny our history without
consequence.
You
can publically proclaim that the so-called “claim of return” is a
non-starter, or you can allow this claim to remain the major obstacle to
any peace agreement.
You can work to end Palestinian incitement, or stand by as hatred and extremism take root for generations to come.
You
can prematurely recognize a Palestinian state, or you can encourage the
Palestinian Authority to break its pact with Hamas and return to direct
negotiations.
T
he choice is yours. You can continue to steer the Palestinians off course or pave the way to real and lasting peace.
Thank you, Mr. President.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3)
Despite nuclear talks' extension, Iran is still on the verge of a bomb
Analysis: Decision to extend Geneva interim agreement holds several advantages and potential risks. It will be Western intelligence organizations' job to minimize risks and prevent Iran from using next seven months to advance its nuclear ambitions.
By Ron Ben-Yishai
The attempt to reach a permanent agreement which would completely
remove the risk of Iran becoming militarily nuclearized, in exchange for a
removal of the sanctions, failed because Iran is unprepared to give up its
status as a nuclear threshold state and is prepared to pay a heavy
economic price for that.
Anyone who knows how complicated the negotiations are, technically and politically, understands that the temporary interim agreement reached in Geneva a year ago is the maximum compromise the world powers (the five permanent Security Council members and Germany) are able to achieve with Iran.
Moreover, it still wants to shorten as much as possible the period of
time needed to "break through" towards a nuclear weapon, so that the
Western intelligence will not have enough time to discover that Iran has
already begun producing an atomic weapon and in order to neutralize a
military action which would stop the ayatollahs before they cross the
finish line.
But the West isn't giving up either. Speaking at a press conference in
Vienna, US Secretary of State John Kerry clarified that he and his allies
hoped the situation would change for the better in seven months' time.
How? Kerry implied that there is more to the progress made in the past
year of negotiations than what meets the eye, and he may also be hoping
that processes within the Iranian society will lead to a change in supreme
leader Ali Khamenei's tough stance.
In any event, at the moment the West would rather not declare that the
efforts to reach an agreement have failed. Such an announcement would be
met with a Congress demand to step up the sanctions. Khamenei and the
Iranian Revolutionary Guards might respond by breaking the rules of the
game and "breaking through" towards the bomb. In such a case, the United
States and/or Israel would have to decide whether to strike in Iran in
order to prevent the worst possible scenario. Yes, Israel is capable of
striking in Iran.
Nuclear talks' participants in Vienna (Photo:
AFP)
This scenario is one of the main reasons why the parties agreed to
extend the interim agreement, under which the Iranian uranium enrichment
project is almost completely frozen. The Islamic Republic can enrich
uranium to a high level (90%) for one nuclear explosive device within
three to six months, but it will take at least another year and a half to
develop an explosive device and nuclear warhead for a missile, leaving
Iran in the status of a threshold state which is about 18 months away from
a first bomb.
The agreement gave Iran an insignificant easement of the sanctions
which is incapable for leading to an improvement in its economy, as many
in the country expect and demand. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
promised, but Khamenei is in no hurry to fulfill. This is the stick still
being waved over Iran's head, and the US leverage which may cause Iran to
agree to a compromise which will satisfy the West later on. That way, each
side holds on to the bargaining chips it had at the beginning of the
negotiations, hoping to find a creative solution to the current deadlock.
The talks failed because neither side got what it wanted. The Americans
and Europeans failed to convince the Iranians to limit the number of
centrifuges, to prevent the installment of centrifuges of newer models and
to limit the amount of enriched uranium to a low level.
The Americans failed in another area: They did not get the Iranians to
agree to invasive supervision, which would allow unexpected inspections,
especially in places where the Western intelligence services say Iran is
developing a nuclear weapon.
Kerry hinted that that was the main bone of contention. The world
powers are concerned that Iran is secretly developing a weapons system,
including a primitive nuclear explosive device, followed by a warhead for
a missile.
The West doesn’t know what Iran is doing in the thousands of burrows
excavated in its mountains in recent years. The West's representatives
demanded that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors
would be able to hold unexpected visits to these sites. Iran rejected that
out of hand and failed to answer the IAEA's questions regarding
information on the nuclear weapons program.
According to the same information, this weapon was planned and tested
at least in one military camp near the city of Parchin, not far from
Tehran.
The Iranians didn’t get what they firmly demanded either: The West
refused to lift the sanctions immediately upon signing the agreement, or
making it valid for only two to three years, as Iranian Foreign Minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif demanded. He also demanded that once those years came
to an end, Iran would be able to do as it pleased in the nuclear field,
without any supervision apart from routing IAEA inspections.
There is no wonder, therefore, that both sides agreed not to agree and
preferred to extend the interim agreement, which still provides each side
with something.
Now it remains to be seen whether it will be possible to reach a
reasonable agreement on principles between the West and Iran by March
2015, and whether it will be possible to sign a permanent agreement in
July.
The West's minimum demand is that a detailed permanent agreement will
keep Iran at least one year away from the bomb. Israel is not settling for
such an achievement and is arguing that being one year away from a bomb
makes Iran a country with a nuclear weapon for all intents and purposes.
But Kerry insists, and has even implied that a lot of progress has been
made in the talks. No one knows what progress was made.
In any event, US President Barack Obama stands to benefit the most, as
the media and Congress cannot accuse him for now of another failure in his
foreign policy.
Israel is satisfied with the extension mainly because it thwarts a "bad
agreement," as it is called in Jerusalem. In the current situation, Iran
cannot expand its centrifuge lineup and increase the amount of uranium
enriched to a low level (3.5-5%) which it can produce and enrich to the
level of fissile material, and the burden of the sanctions remains
unchanged. This is the lesser of two evils.
As for the permanent agreement, Israel is demanding that Iran will not
be allowed to enrich Iranian at all, but as the West does not accept this
demand, Israel will accept a situation in which Iran will have no more
than 4,500 to 5,000 active centrifuges, and that the amount of uranium
enriched to a low level will not exceed 7,000 to 8,000 kilograms – the
amount required for the production of one nuclear explosive device.
Israeli officials are still very worried. The shortcoming of
the current situation is that Iran can secretly develop a nuclear weapon,
even during the talks. This can be done in small facilities latently. The
Iranians specialize in deceptive activity of this kind, which the Western
and Israeli intelligence will find it difficult to expose.
This is a real danger because if the process of developing a
nuclear weapon is completed, Iran will be able to considerably shorten the
period of time between from the decision to produce a nuclear weapon and
its actual production.
The second shortcoming is that the interim agreement does not
limit Iran's ability to develop and produce centrifuges of newer models,
which enrich uranium at a double and triple pace than the outdated
centrifuges it has now, and Iranian scientists can install them within
several months and enrich the uranium at a low level to the level of
fissile material at a much higher speed.
The third negative point is that there is no restriction on
Iran's ability to develop and produce accurate and fast ballistic missiles
which could carry a nuclear warhead.
These points basically allow Iran not only to maintain its
status as a nuclear threshold state, but also to shorten the time needed
to "break through" towards a bomb without violating the interim agreement
and without causing the West to cancel the easement of the sanctions.
This is the main risk involved in the extension. The
intelligence organizations of the US, Britain, France, German and Israel
will have to minimize this risk. They are the only ones capable of
thwarting the alarming possibility that Iran will use the next seven
months to advance its nuclear ambitions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------