Until Very Recently, Biden’s Economic Advisors Defined ‘Recession’ as ‘Two Quarters of Negative Growth’
By Debra Heine
The Republican National Committee has unearthed a number of remarks made by several Biden officials that seriously undermine their efforts to change the definition of a recession.
Until very recently, economic experts—including members of the Biden administration—defined a recession as two consecutive quarters of economic decline. On Thursday, economic data will be released that is expected to show the U.S. economy shrank for two consecutive quarters. With this bad economic report looming ahead of the midterm elections, the Biden regime has been attempting to broaden the “technical definition” of recession to include other variables.
But as recently as May of 2022, Biden’s Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers Cecilia Rouse said “two quarters of negative growth” means the economy is in a recession.
And in May of 2019, Biden’s economic adviser Heather Boushey said: As a “rule of thumb,” a recession refers to “two quarters of negative growth in GDP.” Later that year, Biden’s economic adviser Jared Bernstein defined a recession as “two consecutive quarters of declining growth.”
Biden’s economic adviser Jared Bernstein in September 2019: A recession is “defined as two consecutive quarters of declining growth.”https://t.co/q7EyM7Gh2Q
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 27, 2022
Biden’s economic adviser Heather Boushey in May 2019: As a “rule of thumb,” a recession refers to “two quarters of negative growth in GDP.” pic.twitter.com/E9F5s3nVn6
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 27, 2022
None other than Biden’s National Economic Council Director Brian Deese said in March of 2008: “Of course economists have a technical definition of recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.”
Deese at the time was was working for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign as her economic policy director. After Clinton was defeated in the Democrat primary, Deese joined Barack Obama’s campaign as an economic advisor.
In the past week, Bernstein, Rouse, and Deese, have all attempted to change the traditional definition of recession, even though they have used it themselves in the past.
Citing a “holistic look at the data,” In a White House Council of Economic Advisors post on the White House website, CEA chair Rouse and member Bernstein claimed last week that “it is unlikely that the decline in GDP in the first quarter of this year—even if followed by another GDP decline in the second quarter—indicates a recession.”
Bernstein echoed that narrative on CNN Saturday night.
“Actually two quarters of negative GDP doesn’t necessarily qualify as a recession,” he said, insisting that the variables that National Bureau of Economic Research considers to determine whether we are in a recession “tend to look pretty good.”
Monday morning, Deese also denied that the country is under a “technical definition” of recession.
“The technical definition considers a much broader spectrum of data points, but in practical terms, what matters to the American is whether they have a little economic breathing room, have more job opportunities, their wages are going up,” Deese said on CNN.
Deese repeated the message at the White House on Tuesday.
“Two negative quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of recession,” he insisted, adding, “it’s not the definition that economists have traditionally relied on.”
Brian Deese, yesterday: "Two negative quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of recession.”
Deese, 2008: “Economists have a technical definition of recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.” pic.twitter.com/MzVk7drq3v
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 27, 2022
By any metric, the economy in the United States is not doing well under Biden.
There may be plenty of “job opportunities” throughout the country, but unfortunately many Americans, for whatever reason, have left the work force.
The labor shortage is most acute in the food sector, durable goods manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and education and health services, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “These industries have more unfilled job openings than unemployed workers with experience in their respective industry.”
Businesses are going under because they can’t find people willing to work. Economist Lawrence Summers said the government’s juiced-up unemployment benefits created the record labor shortage.
Meanwhile, wages are not going up, as Deese suggested, they’re going down “by quite a bit,” according to Casey Mulligan, former chief economist for the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) under former President Trump.
“It seems to me that the White House seems to be saying, ‘yeah, you’re working more and earning less, but at least you’re working more,'” Mulligan, who is currently a professor at the University of Chicago, told Fox Business. “I don’t understand the silver lining of that. We work in order to earn. That earning part is not going well.”
“That’s really the GDP. GDP combines both the labor income and capital income, but they tend to move together,” he continued “We’ve seen it in the earnings data as well. Real wages, real earnings have fallen quite a bit just in the last month as well as over the last year.”
Update:
Members of the Biden regime are reportedly twisting the arms of “their allies and sycophants” to amplify their fake narratives about the economy.
Senior administration officials are hitting the airwaves and arm-twisting reporters in private, imploring anyone who will listen that the economy — despised by majorities of both Republicans and Democrats fed up with inflation — is still healthy.
About Debra Heine
Debra Heine is a conservative Catholic mom of six and longtime political pundit. She has written for several conservative news websites over the years, including Breitbart and PJ Media.
And:
RECESSION: Democrat Policies Tank Economy
Prolonged stagnation, fiscal crisis possible
By Christian Whiton
“Destruction,” by Thomas Cole from his Course of Empire series, 1833-1836.
The year of disasters for Joe Biden and the Democrats who control Washington just got officially worse. The Commerce Department announced this morning that the economy shrank by an annualized 0.9% in the second quarter which ran from April through June. Coming on the heels of a 1.6% annual contraction in the first quarter, that confirms two successive quarters of economic decline—the standard definition of a recession.
The development makes official the economic misery that most Americans have been feeling since Joe Biden became president: out-of-control inflation, declining real wages, and a workforce disrupted by big government.
The news is also the latest reminder that our economic and political elite are clueless and dishonest.
The economic disaster began because Joe Biden and his fellow big spenders have adhered to something called Modern Monetary Theory that said the government could spend as much as it wants and run up national debt without consequence. That theory has been put to the test since the 2020 government shutdown of the economy. Since then, the federal government has spent about $7 trillion more than it would have under its previous bloated budget plan and permanently enshrined annual budget deficits in excess of $1 trillion.
The Federal Reserve funded most of that growth by doubling its holdings of debt instruments from just over $4 trillion in early 2020 to just under $9 trillion today—primarily by creating dollars out of thin air to buy up newly issued government debt. Economic growth ended as soon as unsustainable spending was curtailed and inflation has raged.
Recall that the geniuses of Washington and Wall Street assured us there would not be inflation. Then they said it wouldn’t be bad nor would it last long. But it is bad and it is persistent.
We received the same clueless or mendacious predictions about the overall economy. In June, Joe Biden said of the possibility of recession: “First of all, it’s not inevitable.” The same month, Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi falsely stated that the economy had improved. This month, Treasury Secretary Janet “from another planet” Yellen pushed the envelope from spin to outright lying when she said, “This is not an economy that is in recession”—something the statisticians of her own administration were undoubtedly already telling her was not true.
Yesterday, clueless Fed Chairman Jerome Powell—one of many establishment poodles first given his job by Donald Trump because he “looked the part”—denied there is a recession. The “independent” Chairman Powell, who acts like he is a deputy assistant secretary at the Treasury Department taking orders from Joe Biden and Yellen, echoed laughable White House propaganda about the job market somehow negating the recession, even though he knows employment is a lagging indicator.
It wasn’t just the government elite who were wrong or lying. The other people you indirectly pay to be right, economic analysts at big Wall Street firms, were mostly wrong. Overall, the big banks forecasted economic growth despite access to all of the information the rest of us have and confirmation of a slowdown from their own business activities. (Luckily readers of this page knew recession was coming due to numerous warnings. Examples: March 14, May 26, June 16, July 1.)
The recession announcement isn’t just news because of the economic pain it reflects. It also foretells political turmoil and possibly a government spending crisis.
The economy is routinely the issue that voters care about the most. Recessions during the first terms of presidencies doomed Gerald Ford and George H. W. Bush. To hold the White House, Democrats must now hope to pull a Ronald Reagan, who won a landslide reelection in 1984 after a steep recession in his first term.
The problem for Democrats is that Reagan had laid the groundwork for a return to rapid and sustained economic growth. He cut taxes and regulation while giving Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volker the political cover to tighten monetary policy dramatically. Volcker’s tightening, which brought the prime interest rate to as high as 20% (it is 2.5% today), deepened the recession but controlled inflation. Then, from that reset, Reagan’s tax cuts and unabashed support for free market capitalism created a booming economy—Seven Fat Years of growth that changed America and the world.
Have Democrats created the political and economic circumstances for such a recovery? Reagan cut taxes and regulations. Democrats have tried repeatedly to increase them and succeeded through creating inflation—a tax on all Americans’ wages and savings. Democrats also want to use their religion of climate change alarmism as a justification to regulate every facet of the economy, starting with raising energy prices further.
This reality should call into question claims by Washington and Wall Street that any recession will be short and shallow. A Republican Congress can put a limit on some of the Democrats’ biggest schemes for transforming the economy, but Beltway Republicans seldom even call for balancing the budget or controlling federal spending—a likely prerequisite along with tighter monetary policy to taming inflation. Sustained economic prosperity will probably require a Republican president who is better than his party’s congressional luminaries. Until then, the safest bet is for “stagflation”—low or no economic growth and persistent inflation.
Furthermore, higher interest rates, out-of-control federal spending, and threats to the dollar’s global dominance because of dumb sanctions on Russia have an outside chance of sparking a fiscal crisis for the government—spending cuts made out of necessity rather than prudent choice. (Expect defense spending to decline no matter who is president.)
Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats sure know how to go out with a bang.
Christian Whiton was a senior advisor in the Bush and Trump administrations. He is a senior fellow at the Center for the National Interest and a principal at DC International Advisory.
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The National Tragedy of Hunter Biden’s Laptop - Tablet Magazine
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/the-national-tragedy-of-hunter-bidens-laptop
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Much hope has been placed in an eventual normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. On July 15th, President Biden travelled to Saudi Arabia in an attempt to help cement relations between the two countries and to find another source to lower the cost of gas for Americans before the November midterm elections. The Saudis were gracious enough to invite a group of Israeli journalists to cover the story.
One particular journalist, Gil Tamari, took it upon himself to enter Mecca, film what he saw there and then broadcast it to the world. This one incident by one individual might potentially have soured the flowering of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Why is it so difficult for those of us from Western democracies to understand the cultural, societal and theological contexts of other cultures? What is it about Islam that we fail to understand?
Here to discuss this with us was Harold Rhode.
About our Speaker: Harold Rhode is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Gatestone Institute. He received a Ph.D. in Ottoman History from Columbia University and later served as the Turkish Desk Officer at the US Department of Defense.
Harold Rhode taught Islamic history at the University of Delaware as an adjunct professor from 1979 until 1981. In May 1982, he joined the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy at the Pentagon as an adviser on the Islamic world with a special emphasis on Turkey, Iran, and Iraq. He retired from this position in 2010. During his tenure he wrote papers on how to understand, negotiate, and deal with Turkey, Iran, Central Asia, and other Arab countries.
Raising interest rates in combination with increases in taxes is a sure bet those in the lower socio level will suffer the most while driving us deeper into a recession. Thank you Manchin. I am sure
the miners in West Virginia are delighted.
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