Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Caving Like The Lemming He Is!


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U.S. Foreign Policy from the Founders' Perspective  - a Stratfor think piece. (See 1 below)

Obama's foreign policy has not changed from his first term no matter what Ms Rice says. It simply is one of more appeasement because iran, Syria, Russia and the Palestinians have hung tough and Obama is caving  like  the lemming he is as he dreams on and on.  (See 1a and 1b below.)

Another version of Palestinian demands.  (See 1c below.)

An article by my friend Jonathan Schanzer (See 1d below.)
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Israel at its best - helping and working with  other nations .  (See 2 below.)
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Carney is upset with insurance companies for abiding with the laws regarding 'Obamascare.' 

Just keep enforcing the law and that should get people riled enough to revolt! (See 3 below.)

Sowell on throwing the rascals out part 2! (See 3a below.)
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Dick
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1) U.S. Foreign Policy from the Founders' Perspective 

By David D. Judson
Just last week, the question came again. It is a common one, sometimes from a former colleague in newspaperdom, sometimes from a current colleague here at Stratfor and often from a reader. It is always to the effect of, "Why is Stratfor so often out of sync with the news media?" All of us at Stratfor encounter questions regarding the difference between geopolitical intelligence and political journalism. One useful reply to ponder is that in conventional journalism, the person providing information is presumed to know more about the subject matter than the reader. At Stratfor, the case is frequently the opposite: Our readers typically are expert in the topics we study and write about, and our task is to provide the already well-informed with further insights. But the question is larger than that.
For as the camp of those who make their living selling -- or trying to sell -- words and images grows exponentially via the Internet, the placement of one's electronically tethered tent takes on a new importance. This campsite has its own ecology, something scholars have taken to calling the "media ecosystem." We co-exist in this ecosystem, but geopolitical intelligence is scarcely part of the journalistic flora and fauna. Our uniqueness creates unique challenges, and these are worth some discussion in this space that is generally devoted to more specific geopolitical themes.
For the moment, let's skip how we approach subjects such as Syria's civil war, a protest by Colombian farmers or the tweet by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani after a chat with U.S. President Barack Obama in comparison to our colleagues in the conventional news business. Instead, let's go to the core dynamic of the media in our age and work back outward through the various layers to what we do in the same virtual space, namely, intelligence.
This requires some indulgence, so first, open a new tab in your browser window and go to the search engine Google. No cheating; you must do so before you continue this column. Now, type the following search terms: "David," "Goliath" and "mergers and acquisitions." Hit enter.
What you will see -- and please test us on this -- is essentially a survey of all the small companies of late that have purchased larger ones, along with strategies for small companies to target bigger rivals and maybe an essay or two on various sectoral consolidations. You could get the same information with a week's sorting of SEC filings. But instead, you have just circumvented that laborious process by going straight to just one of the "meta-narratives" that form the superstructure of journalism.

Meta-Narratives at Journalism's Core

Welcome to the news media's inner core. For the fundamental truth of news reporting is that it is constructed atop pre-existing narratives comprising a subject the reader already knows or expects, a description using familiar symbolism often of a moral nature, and a narrative that builds through implicit metaphor from the stories already embedded in our culture and collective consciousness. No writer can, and no writer should, resist these communicative tools. What better way to explain a small Italian tech company's challenge to Microsoft's purchase of Skype than to cast the effort as a "David vs. Goliath battle"? The currency of language really is the collection of what might be called the "meta-stories." Pick up any daily newspaper and you're sure to find Horatio Alger on the business page, Don Quixote in sports, Homer's Odyssey in the education news and a Shakespeare tragedy or two in the style section. They usually won't be clearly identified as such but you can find them. "David and Goliath" is just an unusually good example because it's irresistible to any scribe writing about a clash of Main Street and Wal-Mart. Storytellers proceed out of their own cultural canon, and Western journalists write from the Western canon.
There's nothing wrong with this. For the art of storytelling -- journalism, that is -- is essentially unchanged from the tale-telling of Neolithic shamans millennia ago up through and including today's New York Times. Cultural anthropologists will explain that our brains are wired for this. So be it.
Still working outward from this core reality comes a related phenomenon, the mirroring journalists engage in of one another's stories. How "group think" enters the picture is really a topic for another day. But imagine a crowded orchestra hall with all the concertgoers clapping in unison for an encore. How do 10,000 strangers suddenly, quickly and spontaneously calibrate their clapping into a unified tempo without formal guidance? Such random synchronization is a topic of significant scientific study. Let's skip the details, but the emergence of the familiar contours of the media -- whether they be around the "New South" or the "Arab Spring" or the "East Asian Miracle" -- is pretty much the same phenomenon. We at Stratfor may not "sync up." Journalists certainly do.

Meta-Narratives Meet Meta-Data

There is nothing new in this; it is a process almost as old as the printing press itself. But where it gets particularly new and interesting is with my penultimate layer of difference, the place where meta-narratives meet meta-data.
"Meta-data," as the technologists call it, is more simply understood as "data about data." When a reader of a web page enables a "cookie," this is really an exchange of meta-data that enables the provider to "customize your experience" -- i.e., to try to sell you something in most cases. Backstage at a website like the one I run, we spend a great deal of time "tagging" our analyses with terms we judge a reader likely to use: "Syria" or "chemical weapons" or "Assad," for example. This is how in the exercise above you found all the stories on small and large companies thanks to the many Internet tacticians who had the presence of mind to "tag" David and Goliath.
Where the online battle for eyeballs becomes truly epic, however, (Google "the definition of epic" for yet another storyteller's meta-story) is when these series of tags are organized into a form of meta-data called a "taxonomy." These are really just electronic breadcrumbs to lead to a particular website. The more precisely a webmaster places the bread crumbs relative to the migrating birds -- in this case, readers -- the fuller the cyber-hunter's knapsack of "hits" at the end of the day. Some web designers actually call these forms of meta-data "canonical taxonomies," a serendipitous term that supports the argument here.
And thus we arrive at the outermost layer of the media's skin in our emerging and interconnected age. This invisible skin over it all comes in the form of a new term of art, "search engine optimization," or in the trade just "SEO." This is the grand global competition involving thousands of bits of electronic birdseed at millions of websites whose owners all hope their electronic nets will snare the migratory reader-fowl amid billions of searches each and every day.
With journalists already predisposed by centuries of convention to converge on stories knitted from a common canon, the marriage of meta-narrative and meta-data simply accelerates to the speed of light the calibration of topic and theme. The "news" you consume is now commoditized and delivered per spec according to your TV preferences, your zip code and probably your shoe size. It is as if the 10,000 strangers in a concert hall who take a minute or so to calibrate their claps in hope of an encore suddenly have pulsating strobe lights helping set their tempo. It would no longer take a minute for them to sync up; they could be clapping in unison in less than 10 seconds. In the case of SEO, the concert hall is global, the "claps" are news bits, sound bites and tweets, and the order of magnitude is millions of times greater.
If a bit simplified, these layers add up to become the connective tissue in a media-centric and media-driven age. Which leads me back to the original question of why Stratfor so often "fails to sync up with the media."
An actual debate we had in the office helps explain. It was Sept. 5, and the world was on edge over the prospect of an imminent U.S. attack on Syria. This was the story in the mainstream media, and our dozens of stories on Syria were delivering a huge spike in much-appreciated traffic to Stratfor's online magazine. But our fundamental value proposition, the reason Stratfor exists, is that we do not always play the media's game.
That we were virtually alone among online publishers when we turned our gaze to farmer-led protests in Colombia that threatened to spread and involve other sectors, disrupting the economy and perhaps upending a pending trade treaty proved problematic because there was no wave of a meta-narrative for us to catch. For by the doctrines of the Internet's new commercial religion, a move disrupting the click stream was -- and is -- pure heresy. But our readers still need to know about Colombia, just as they need our unique perspectives on Syria.

Applying the Scientific Method to Journalism

Yes, we exist in the same media ecology -- the Internet -- as our journalist brethren. In that sense we compete, even while not being rivals. For while we do appear much like journalism at first glance, another way to consider the difference is to describe intelligence as "journalism with the scientific method."
Every forecast and article we do is essentially a lab experiment, in which we put the claims of politicians, the reports on unemployment statistics, the significance of a raid or a bombing to the test of geopolitics. We spend much more time studying the constraints on political actors -- what they simply cannot do economically, militarily or geographically -- than we do examining what they claim they will do. Our narratives are not derived from any canon, but materialize from careful examination of what could feasibly transpire rather than what someone says will occur.
This is abstract. In fact, we deal with many abstractions. The Oxford English Dictionary says of the scientific method, perhaps the key differentiator of journalism and intelligence: "A method or procedure that has characterized natural science since the 17th century, consisting in systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation, testing, and modification of hypotheses."
The key characteristic to ponder here is that such methodology -- intelligence, in this case -- seeks to enable the acquisition of knowledge by allowing reality to speak for itself. Journalism, however, creates a reality atop many random assumptions through the means described. It is not a plot, a liberal conspiracy or a secret conservative agenda at work, as so many media critics will charge. It is simply the way the media ecosystem functions. 
And so the intelligence company is the outlier in this media ecosystem. Yes, we live in it, but no we are not an organic part of it. We operate with a different rulebook, one at odds with our fellow inhabitants in this ecosystem.
Thus, we cannot sync up with the mainstream media, as convenient as that might be. We play on the margins of meta-data, tagging, taxonomies and search engine optimization. But we can't play very well because of who we are and how we do our jobs.
Journalism, in our age more than ever before, tells you what you want to know. Stratfor tells you what you need to know. We cannot build a taxonomy to automatically guide us. In a world of search engine Davids and Goliaths, Stratfor aims for a role more akin to that of Samuel, the seer credited with giving us the stories of both. Samuel represents the recorder of the significance of events, the one who saw it as his task to point out just where those events might lead. This is an ambition we share.
Editor's Note: Writing in George Friedman's stead this week is David D. Judson, editor-in-chief of Stratfor

1a)

Obama's “Modest Strategy” Good For Putin

By Jonathan S. Tobin 

For those seeking an explanation for the puzzling turn that American foreign policy has taken during Barack Obama’s second term, the New York Times has one today. In a front-page feature in their Sunday edition, the Times’s Mark Landler provides National Security Advisor Susan Rice with the kind of puff piece the paper’s readers have come to expect when such analyses of administration policy are provided. Rice’s “blueprint” for a change from the president’s more ambitious goals of his first term was, we are told, formed at a series of Saturday morning bull sessions where those involved decided that they wanted to “avoid having events in the Middle East swallow [Obama’s] foreign policy agenda, as it had those of presidents before him.” So they chucked the “freedom agenda” of George W. Bush that Obama had tentatively embraced at the time of the outbreak of the Arab Spring protests as well as any interest in Egypt. As the Times reported:
At the United Nations last month, Mr. Obama laid out the priorities he has adopted as a result of the review. The United States, he declared, would focus on negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran, brokering peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians and mitigating the strife in Syria. Everything else would take a back seat.
In theory, that might make sense. But given that the Iranians only use diplomacy to buy themselves more time to build their nuclear program; the Israeli-Palestinian talks are widely believed to be a fool’s errand (and were included in the agenda only because Secretary of State John Kerry had already committed the U.S. to another round of diplomacy with all of its risks and dangers regardless of what Rice or anyone else wanted to do); and the administration has already punted on Syria, this is not a promising agenda. Indeed, it looks to be even more of a disaster than the more wide-ranging to-do-list of the president’s first term that no one is claiming was exactly a great success.
But unfortunately for Rice and her boss, their “modest strategy”—as the headline of the Times feature puts it—just got a little shakier today. Earlier this month, I was one of many administration critics who warned that the president’s decision to cut aid to Egypt could open the door for Russia to step back into the alliance that Anwar Sadat trashed back in the 1970s as he strove to make peace with Israel. It appears Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to do that. At the same time that Rice was using the Times to send a message to Egypt that it is no longer a U.S. priority, reports are circulating that the Russian autocrat is planning a visit to Cairo where he will attempt to revive the military alliance that existed between Russia and Egypt. If he succeeds in getting the Russian fleet back into Egypt’s Mediterranean ports, he should send a thank you note to Rice and the president. But, of course, he already owes them one for the administration’s retreat on Syria.
This is a potential disaster for U.S. foreign policy.
The Egyptian military seems to have succeeded in not only ousting the Muslim Brotherhood government that threatened to turn the most populous Arab nation into an Islamist regime but in keeping the group from organizing a rebellion. Though the process by which they have done so is not easy to defend, they at least understood something the president and Rice seem not to have learned: that the struggle with the Brotherhood is a zero-sum game. By taking out the Brotherhood, clamping down on terror in the Sinai, and squeezing Hamas in Gaza, the military has made the region safer. But they’ve gotten no thanks for this from Washington. Not only has Obama distanced the U.S. from Cairo and cut aid, Rice has now announced, via the front page of the Sunday New York Times, that what happens in Egypt isn’t all that important anyway.
While the Egyptian military will be loath to swap up-to-date U.S. hardware for Russian knockoffs, who can blame them for shopping around for new friends after the snubs they’ve received from President Obama?
Though his staff wants to save the president from being swamped by events in the Middle East, by putting all their chips on the slim hopes of an acceptable nuclear deal with Iran and the virtually non-existent chances of an Israeli-Palestinian accord, they have only set him up for more failure. Worse than that, by granting Putin a victory in Syria—where Russian and Iranian ally Bashar Assad looks more secure than ever thanks to Obama’s backing away from striking at his chemical-weapons stockpile—and setting him up to win back Egypt, President Obama has made the Middle East much less stable for U.S. allies like Israel and Arab nations like Jordan and Saudi Arabia. That’s a formula for exactly the kind of blow-up Rice and her buddies had hoped to spare the president.

1b)

Foreign policy based on fantasy

By Jackson Diehl

“One is forced to wonder whether disarmament or arms control issues, severed from economic and political issues, might be another instance of focusing on the symptoms of a problem instead of the disease itself.”
Barack Obama wrote those words in 1983 , when he was a student at Columbia University. He was describing the nuclear freeze movement and how its focus on warhead numbers left the larger social justice issues of the Cold War era unaddressed. But he could just as well have been describing his own policies in the Middle East 30 years later — and why they have driven a wedge between the United States and some of its closest allies.
In his zeal to extract his administration from what he sees as a regional quagmire, Obama, like the old freeze movement, has adopted a narrow and high-altitude approach to a complex and sprawling set of conflicts. Rising above the carnage in Syria — or “somebody else’s civil war,” as he called it in his recent speech at the United Nations — he has adopted a priority of destroying the country’s chemical weapons arsenal. He seeks to put stronger safeguards on Iran’s nuclear program while sidestepping its larger effort to use terrorism and proxy wars to become a regional hegemon.
From a certain Washington point of view, Obama’s aims look worthy and, better yet, plausibly achievable — unlike, say, establishing democracy in Iraq. The problem with the approach is that it assumes that the Syrian civil war and other conflicts across the region pose no serious threat to what Obama calls “core U.S. interests,” and that they can be safely relegated to the nebulous realm of U.N. diplomacy and Geneva conferences, where Secretary of State John Kerry lives.
Let’s suppose for the moment that al-Qaeda’s new base in eastern Syria, Hezbollah’s deployment of tens of thousands of missiles in Lebanon and the crumbling of the U.S.-fostered Iraqi political system pose no particular threat to America. That still leaves U.S. allies in the region — Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey — marooned in a scary new world where their vital interests are no longer under U.S. protection.
Israel and Saudi Arabia worry that Obama will strike a deal with Iran that frees it from sanctions without entirely extirpating its capacity to enrich uranium — leaving it with the potential to produce nuclear weapons. But more fundamentally, they and their neighbors are dismayed that the United States appears to have opted out of the regional power struggle between Iran and its proxies and Israel and the Arab states aligned with the United States. It is the prospect of waging this regional version of the Cold War without significant U.S. support that has prompted Saudi leaders to hint at a rupture with Washington — and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to talk more publicly than ever about Israel’s willingness to act alone.
Obama’s defenders have some answers to this: There’s no reason, they say, for the United States to be sucked down the rabbit hole of every Middle East conflict. The motives and interests of Saudi Arabia and Israel aren’t always worth encouraging. The former is driven by the atavistic sectarian enmity between Sunni and Shia; the latter sees no chance of co-existence with an Islamic Republic. Anyway, the Obamites say, the administration is trying to address the region’s larger problems through the pursuit of a political settlement in Syria as well as an Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Here lies another problem. Virtually no one outside the State Department — including the nominal parties to the talks — takes seriously the possibility that Kerry’s plan for a Geneva conference to settle the Syrian war can work in the foreseeable future, or that Israelis and Palestinians can agree on a two-state settlement. They play along with the process to please Washington, or Moscow, while complaining to journalists like me that Kerry’s diplomacy is based on fantasy. Who can imagine Syrian President Bashar al-Assad placidly agreeing to step down? Or Netanyahu ceding East Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley to the Palestinians and their security forces?
Diplomatic breakthroughs, like arms control agreements, don’t happen in a vacuum; they happen because political, economic and security conditions make them possible. The nuclear freeze movement failed in the early 1980s because the Soviet Union still presented a tangible and inescapable threat to the West. A Syrian peace conference could not succeed now because the Assad regime is in no immediate danger of losing on the battlefield.
For Obama, succeeding in even the limited objectives he has set for the Middle East would require reshaping conditions on the ground: weakening Assad, degrading Iranian strength, bolstering Israeli and Saudi confidence. That work could be done without deploying U.S. troops, but it would be hard, expensive and require a lot of presidential attention. It would mean, as a bright young student once put it, focusing on “the disease itself.”

1c)Palestinians make stiff land demands for peace deal
By Ilan Ben Zion 


The Palestinian Authority demands that any land swap with Israel as part of a peace deal not exceed 1.9 percent of the West Bank, less than half of the land necessary to incorporate the lion’s share of settlers, according to details leaked to Channel 2 by a disgruntled Palestinian official on Sunday.
According to the report, the Palestinians are also insisting that they gain control over water, and control at their sides of the Dead Sea and border crossings; that a Palestinian state be able to sign agreements with other states without Israeli intervention; that Israel release all Palestinian prisoners it holds; and that all Palestinian refugees and their descendants be granted the right to choose to live in Israel or the Palestinian territories as part of a final agreement.
The report made no mention of Israel’s position on these issues, but the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been wary of a Palestinian state exercising full sovereign powers that might threaten Israeli security, and all Israeli governments have rejected the possibility of anything other than a token influx of Palestinian refugees, for fear of remaking the demographic balance of the Jewish state.
Israel, for its part, according to the TV report, has demanded that any peace deal provide Israel with territorial contiguity, that there be an IDF presence in the Jordan Valley for a prescribed period of time, and that, in addition to border adjustments covered by the land swaps, further land be annexed by Israel to cover the major settlement blocs in return for financial compensation to the Palestinians.
In previous rounds of negotiations, the Palestinians agreed in principle to swap some West Bank land for Israeli territory, in order to allow Israel to annex some settled areas adjacent to its border. Israeli peace activist Gershon Baskin has estimated that annexation of 4% of the West Bank would be necessary to incorporate 80% of the settler population in a final agreement.
The US-brokered peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority reportedly reached an impasse last month due to the Israeli refusal to discuss land-swap and border issues. Sunday’s report would appear to indicate that the sides have broached the subject.
Israeli and Palestinian officials agreed ahead of the renewal of talks in July not to speak to the press about the progress of negotiations, but Justice Minister and chief negotiator Tzipi Livni on Sunday remarked in an interview with Channel 2 that the sides had yet to reach an agreement. Asked whether, now that nearly one-third of the nine-month time-frame — set by US Secretary of State John Kerry for the talks — has elapsed, negotiations were one-third completed, Livni tersely replied, “It doesn’t work like that.”
Earlier on Sunday, the Israeli cabinet approved the release of 26 Palestinian prisoners, the second phase of a four-stage release aimed at building confidence with the Palestinians.
A government statement said 21 of the inmates to be released were from the West Bank and five were from the Gaza Strip. “A list of the prisoners is to be published Sunday night on the website of the Israel Prisons Service, after the bereaved families have been informed,” the statement said.
All of the prisoners committed their crimes before the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993.
The releases were expected to be accompanied by the announcement of new plans for West Bank settlement construction, a senior Israeli official said.
The religious, nationalist Jewish Home party has bitterly attacked the planned prisoner releases in recent days. On Sunday, the party proposed legislation to prevent future releases. Opposed by Netanyahu, the bill was rejected by the Ministerial Committee for Legislation in an 8-5 vote.
Ilan Ben Zion is a news editor at The Times of Israel. He holds a Masters degree in Diplomacy from Tel Aviv University and an Honors Bachelors degree from the University of Toronto in Near and Middle Eastern Civilizations, Jewish Studies, and English.

1d)

For Palestinians, the other enemy is their own leadership

Jonathan Schanzer

After few quiet meetings in 2011 with Palestinians in Europe, the Middle East, and the United States, I noticed a common theme. While Palestinians are universally and often justifiably frustrated with Israel’s policies, they are also frustrated by their own poor leadership.
Intrigued, I began to write articles about the Palestinian leadership deficit, as well as the chronic abuses of power and mismanagement that are all too common across the Arab world. I soon realized that the story of failed Palestinian governance and persistent mismanagement is one that a great many observers of the region implicitly accept as truth, but few have ever documented.
The story, as I document in my book State of Failure: Yasser Arafat, Mahmoud Abbas and the Unmaking of the Palestinian State, begins with the inception of the Fatah faction in Kuwait in the 1950s. Under the leadership of Yasser Arafat, Fatah was a secretive terrorist organization on the receiving end of vast petro-dollars. The faction’s coffers ballooned after the 1967 Six-Day War and when Mr. Arafat took over the Palestine Liberation Organization. The PLO’s headquarters moved from Jordan to Lebanon to Tunisia in the decades that followed. All the while, its coffers continued to grow.
By the time the international community called upon Mr. Arafat in 1994 to create the Palestinian Authority, the PLO had a decades-long track record of operating as a secretive terrorist umbrella organization that was accountable to nobody.
Despite his organization’s history of violence, mismanagement, and secrecy, Mr. Arafat was urged to flip the switch and somehow transform the PLO into a functioning mini-state. Not surprisingly, what followed was a decade of scandal. Amidst the fits and starts of diplomacy with Israel, allegations of waste, abuse of power, nepotism, and corruption piled up.
Looking back, U.S. and Palestinian officials involved in the process admit that an opportunity was missed. As negotiator Aaron David Miller recalled, the hope was that if Washington could “get to an agreement, which was a transactional act, that would produce transformation.”
But there was no transaction. Nor was there transformation. The peace process collapsed with the outbreak of the Second Intifada in 2000. Amidst the violence, however, there was a remarkable awakening among Palestinians that went unnoticed: The Palestinians were demanding reform.
Even amidst the ongoing war with Israel (2000-2005), Palestinians made an effort to clean house. They worked to centralize Mr. Arafat’s many bank accounts, even removing officials who had benefited from the system. And the PA’s then-Finance Minister Salam Fayyad, hailed for his common sense reforms and institution-building, steadily gained the confidence of the West.
After Mr. Arafat died in November 2004, the Palestinians elected a new president, Mahmoud Abbas. Mr. Abbas was widely billed as the anti-Arafat. But within a few short years, it became clear that Mahmoud Abbas was, in many respects, Yasser Arafat with a tie.
Admittedly, Mr. Abbas’ Palestinian Authority functions better as a bureaucracy, but the reports of mismanagement and abuses of power will not subside. A recent European Union audit, for example, revealed that the PA may have “misspent” $3.13 billion in financial aid between 2008 and 2012. Mr. Abbas is now four years past the end of his legal presidential term, with no sign of elections in sight. Meanwhile, his regime has forcefully quashed protests in the West Bank, and made criticism of the president – in mainstream media and social media alike – an offence that could lead to imprisonment.
It is worth remembering that the perception of corruption and authoritarianism within the Abbas regime was key to giving the terrorist group Hamas, which ran on a platform of clean governance, the boost it needed to win the Palestinian elections in 2006. The political stalemate that followed ultimately led to a civil war in 2007 whereby Hamas conquered the Gaza Strip by force, yielding an unsustainable split between the West Bank and Gaza that persists today.
Remarkably, even after Hamas’s resounding victory, world leaders elected to ignore the abuses within the PA. Today, the international community, led by the United States, is yet again pushing the Palestinians and Israelis toward a two-state solution. And Washington still has not learned its lessons. The State Department continues to give short shrift to the internal challenges dogging the PA, which is widely seen by the Palestinian street as a seal of approval for the ongoing abuses. This is a dynamic that will continue to push the Palestinians into the hands of Hamas.
This is hardly a blueprint for peace. Nor is it a blueprint for successful statehood. If anything, the current course, if uncorrected, will put the Palestinians on track for a different state: a state of failure.
Jonathan Schanzer is vice president for research at Foundation for Defense of Democracies and author of State of Failure: Yasser Arafat, Mahmoud Abbas and the Unmaking of the Palestinian State (Palgrave Macmillan 2013).


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2)
ISRAELI INNOVATION & JAPAN:
ANOTHER BREAKTHROUGH

Due to the high level of agricultural technology expertise in both countries, Israel and Japan will establish a shared fund for research and development, Agriculture Minister Yair Shamir announced on Monday.

“The breakthrough between Israel and Japan in agriculture, as we did in the field of hi-tech, will be made possible by establishing a common agricultural research and development fund,” the minister said.

Shamir made the announcement following a meeting in Tokyo with his Japanese counterpart, Agriculture, Fisheries and Forests Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi. Japan, he stressed, is a natural partner to Israel in forging forward with agricultural research and development due to the ingenuity that takes place in both countries. The current volume of agricultural trade occurring between the two nations is still limited relative to its potential, at only about $80 million, according to data from the ministry.

During his trip to Japan, Shamir spent time with Hayashi touring fishing areas, seeing greenhouse development, examining the use of treated wastewater and looking at the dairy industry’s growth – all of which may be potential topics for future research and development cooperation, the ministry explained.

The two ministers also discussed the possibility of opening up the Japanese market to fresh agricultural produce from Israel – particularly crops such as peppers, spices, carrots and amaryllis bulbs. Due to Japan’s stringent regulations on crop protection, such exports had not been possible for a long time, the Agriculture Ministry said. However, due to Israel’s existing export agreements with the United States and the European Union, Japan has expressed greater willingness to promote the proceedings necessary to grant approval to the import of Israeli crops.

An additional goal of Shamir’s visit to Japan was to promote a conference of the International Dairy Federation that will be held next October in Israel, which should draw more than 2,000 participants from 54 countries and represent about 90 percent of the world’s dairy market, the ministry said.

“I was impressed that there is a great appreciation for the scientific and technological capabilities of the State of Israel in the field of agriculture,” Shamir said after the visit. “The Japanese government wants to increase the involvement of Israeli companies in the country’s fields of agriculture and water and I believe that this joint research and development fund is a most effective platform toward achieving this goal.”

Three years ago, Israel established a similar such fund with Italy and last year added $500,000 to each of its existing funds with Germany and China, according to the ministry.

Emphasizing that Japan successfully maintains the third biggest economy in the world, Shamir also praised the country for increasing its openness to partners across the globe.

“Japan’s efforts to upgrade its agricultural sector with exposure to competition and to bring back young people to engage in the field – by means of the import and implementation of new technologies, among other things – beckon Israel to an opportunity in the agriculture industry,” Shamir said.
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3)

Jay Carney Berates Insurance Companies For Complying With Obamacare


Speaking to reporters Tuesday White House Press Secretary Jay Carney blamed loss of healthcare coverage for millions of Americans on insurance companies complying with the Affordable Care Act.
"Insurers pulled those plans away from them," Carney said. "The law [Obamacare] could not order insurers not to cancel that plan."
Millions of health insurance plans are no longer available because they do not meet Obamacare standards and regulations. Carney's comments come less than 24 hours after information surfaced showing President Obama knew millions of Americans would be losing their health insurance plans under Obamacare despite promising, "If you like your health care plan, you will be able to keep your health care plan. Period. No one will take it away. No matter what."
When pressed on the issue of millions losing individual insurance plans they wanted to keep, Carney said it is five percent of the population being affected by insurance loss. That five percent adds up to 14 million people.
"We're talking about 5% of the country," Carney said after justifying losses and referring to the individual marketplace as a "wild west" that needed more regulation.
Now that the Obama administration is taking heat from all sides on the loss of insurance, the White House is pivoting back to blaming insurance companies for the loss of those plans, not Obamacare itself, which makes millions of plans illegal.


3a)

Throw the Rascals Out?: Part II

By mas Sowell

The public's opinion of politicians of both parties seems to have reached a new low. But no matter how much the voters detest Congress -- or how justifiably -- that does not mean that there will be radical changes at the next election.
For one thing, "Congress" is not on the ballot. Only individual members of Congress are. Most voters like their own Senator or Representative, often because of special favors that these incumbents have done for their own constituency -- at the taxpayers' expense.
Add to this the so-called "campaign reform" laws that restrict the raising of money that challengers need, in order to counter the millions of dollars' worth of free advertising that incumbents get through ordinary media coverage, enhanced by the incumbents' sponsoring of ever more legislation, expanding the role of government.
The very longevity of incumbents in Congress makes it expedient for them to treat each other as "facts of life" -- people with whom you have to "go along to get along." One of their common interests as incumbents is reelection. This can lead to all sorts of bipartisan log-rolling legislation to hand out the taxpayers' money in ways that benefit incumbents of both parties.
In short, longevity in office can create more longevity in office. Moreover, this longevity can attract campaign contributions from special interests who expect something in return -- if only a lightening up on government restrictions and red tape.
Many among the intelligentsia prefer to think of special interests as corrupting our dedicated public servants with campaign contributions. But Peter Schweizer's new book, "Extortion," shows what happens as the extorting of tribute by politicians in a position to do a lot of harm to businesses that do not pay them protection money.
Campaign contributions are just one of the things that can be extorted. The number of spouses, children or other relatives or favorites of Congressional incumbents who get high-paying jobs in private businesses regulated by government can hardly be coincidental.
When Al Gore was Vice President during the Clinton administration, he simply phoned various special interests and told them how much he wanted them to contribute. He did not have to spell out the reasons why they should -- or why they had better. They already knew from experience how the game is played.
If we are serious about countering this and other political games, at the country's expense in both money and confidence in our government, we have to oppose the creation of a permanent class of long-serving politicians in Washington.
A one-term limit would simultaneously limit how long special interests could expect a pay-off from their campaign contributions. It would also limit, indeed eliminate, the need for millions of dollars of campaign contributions to stay in office.
Congressional reform should also include expanding the range of people likely to serve in Congress. Today, a successful engineer, surgeon, business executive, or even a full professor of economics at a leading university, would have to take a pay cut to serve in Congress.
We need people in government who know something besides politics, and who have experienced what it is like to live under the kinds of laws that politicians pass. We are unlikely to get many of them if we insist that they sacrifice their families' standard of living in order to go to Washington.
How much would it cost to make Congressional salaries high enough to let successful professionals serve in Congress without financial sacrifice?
If we paid every member of Congress a million dollars a year -- for an entire century -- that would add up to less than the cost of running the Department of Agriculture for one year.
To pay less than required to get people of the caliber needed in Congress is the ultimate in being penny-wise and pound-foolish.
Without a financial sacrifice being required to serve a term in Congress, and no need for campaign contributions to get reelected, such a Congress might well get rid of the Department of Agriculture, among other counterproductive government agencies, repaying their own Congressional salaries many times over.
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Monday, October 28, 2013

Times Sho Have Changed! Will Obama Bludgeon Netanyahu Again? Will Netanyahu Crack? Manning and Sowell!



Subject: short and not so sweet
Dr. James D. Manning on Obama!<http://ourlighterside.com/2013/09/20/dr-james-d-manning-on-obama/>

Manning said it.  I just thought it
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 We leave for Israel early Thursday and I have much on my plate before we depart so, as always, I will say this is my last memo until sometime after we return on Nov. 10 and then proceed to send a few more but just in case I stick to my word you are now forewarned.
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Sticker shock? Have  Democrats walked off the cliff in lock step to the tune of their three musketeers -Obama , Reid and Pelosi?

Meanwhile Obama's hound dog press secretary is back pedaling so fast he might fall off another cliff.

Stay tuned because this is better than Johnny Carson.

Speaking of Johnny Carson.  I am reading Bushkin's biography of his client.  Not a pretty picture.  Carson was a complex man who had wonderful mid-western values but his mother was a disaster and it influenced him greatly.  A very interesting and seemingly truthful story told by the man who probably knew him best and was most involved with ever facet of his career (See 1 below.)
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Se if you can bare to watch this: Canadian Washing Machine Commercials

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Jeremy Siegel is a noted professor at Wharton and has been accurate more times than not. (See 2 below.)
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The office of the president is a political one and the current occupier has enjoyed overworking the word.

Obama said after Osama was dead, al Qaeda was also dying.  So when Bhengazi happened at a difficult political  time he and Hillary played politics and failed to send help.

Obama told us 'Obamascare' would not interfere with those who wanted to keep their doctors and policies and now that seems to be another political lie.

Obama told us that the NSA was not snooping in an unlawful manner and now we know it was listening to Ms Merkel singing while she was taking her baths..

Obama told us his would be an open administration  but when it came time for many appointees to testify about their many screw ups they become clams.  Since most everything they have done smells perhaps that is a normal consequence.

It is evident Obamabelieves he is too bright and thus, above being president so he plays a lot of golf and often seems out of touch with what is going on under his name. He vetoed postponing 'Obamascare's' implementation because it would have meant admitting something was rotten in Denmark.

So now Obama has extended the time people can sign up because someone just  told him something really is rotten in Denmark!

Solyndra was a brilliant idea which was going to cut down on our use of dirty coal so we burned hundred of millions of tax payer dollars instead.

I could go on but I hope you get the idea.  We elected a community organizer who paraded as a learned legislator, Constitutional Law Professor and executive.  Does anyone out there feel suckered?

Things have gotten so bad those in the media and press, who once  poked fun at GW,  have turned their guns on the man who blamed GW for everything under the sun.

Times sho' have changed!
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Don't throw the rascals out only to replace them with more rascals - Sowell!  (See 3 below.)
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Abbas apparently has made demands that are likely to end the prospects of successful talks.  When you give Palestinians  what they demand it simply leads to increase demands so every time Israel negotiates with them it ends the same way.

The only way these talks will end positively is if/when Obama bludgeons Netanyahu and Netanyahu cracks. (See 4 and 4a below.)
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Dick
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1)

Sticker Shock: The cold touch of Obamacare reality

By Los Angeles Times 


Thousands of Californians are discovering what Obamacare will cost them -- and many don't like what they see.

These middle-class consumers are staring at hefty increases on their insurance bills as the overhaul remakes the healthcare market. Their rates are rising in large part to help offset the higher costs of covering sicker, poorer people who have been shut out of the system for years.
Although recent criticism of the healthcare law has focused on website glitches and early enrollment snags, experts say sharp price increases for individual policies have the greatest potential to erode public support for President Obama's signature legislation.
"This is when the actual sticker shock comes into play for people," said Gerald Kominski, director of the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research. "There are winners and losers under the Affordable Care Act."
Fullerton resident Jennifer Harris thought she had a great deal, paying $98 a month for an individual plan through Health Net Inc. She got a rude surprise this month when the company said it would cancel her policy at the end of this year. Her current plan does not conform with the new federal rules, which require more generous levels of coverage.
Now Harris, a self-employed lawyer, must shop for replacement insurance. The cheapest plan she has found will cost her $238 a month. She and her husband don't qualify for federal premium subsidies because they earn too much money, about $80,000 a year combined.
"It doesn't seem right to make the middle class pay so much more in order to give health insurance to everybody else," said Harris, who is three months pregnant. "This increase is simply not affordable."
On balance, many Americans will benefit from the healthcare expansion. They are guaranteed coverage regardless of their medical history. And lower-income families will gain access to comprehensive coverage at little or no cost.
The federal government picks up much of the tab through an expansion of Medicaid and subsidies to people earning up to four times the federal poverty level. That's up to $46,000 for an individual or $94,000 for a family of four.
But middle-income consumers face an estimated 30% rate increase, on average, in California due to several factors tied to the healthcare law.
Some may elect to go without coverage if they feel prices are too high. Penalties for opting out are very small initially. Defections could cause rates to skyrocket if a diverse mix of people don't sign up for health insurance.
Pam Kehaly, president of Anthem Blue Cross in California, said she received a recent letter from a young woman complaining about a 50% rate hike related to the healthcare law.
"She said, 'I was all for Obamacare until I found out I was paying for it,'" Kehaly said.
Nearly 2 million Californians have individual insurance, and several hundred thousand of them are losing their health plans in a matter of weeks.
Blue Shield of California sent termination letters to 119,000 customers last month whose plans don't meet the new federal requirements. About two-thirds of those people will experience a rate increase from switching to a new health plan, according to the company.
HMO giant Kaiser Permanente is canceling coverage for about half of its individual customers, or 160,000 people, and offering to automatically enroll them in the most comparable health plan available.
The 16 million Californians who get health insurance through their employers aren't affected. Neither are individuals who have "grandfathered" policies bought before March 2010, when the healthcare law was enacted. It's estimated that about half of policyholders in the individual market have those older plans.
All these cancellations were prompted by a requirement from Covered California, the state's new insurance exchange. The state didn't want to give insurance companies the opportunity to hold on to the healthiest patients for up to a year, keeping them out of the larger risk pool that will influence future rates.
Peter Lee, executive director of Covered California, said the state and insurers agreed that clearing the decks by Jan. 1 was best for consumers in the long run despite the initial disruption. Lee has heard the complaints -- even from his sister-in-law, who recently groused about her 50% rate increase.
"People could have kept their cheaper, bad coverage, and those people wouldn't have been part of the common risk pool," Lee said. "We are better off all being in this together. We are transforming the individual market and making it better."
Lee said consumers need to consider all their options. They don't have to stick with their current company, and higher premiums are only part of the cost equation. Lee said some of these rate hikes will be partially offset by smaller deductibles and lower limits on out-of-pocket medical expenses in the new plans.
Still, many are frustrated at being forced to give up the plans they have now. They frequently cite assurances given by Obama that Americans could hold on to their health insurance despite the massive overhaul.
"All we've been hearing the last three years is if you like your policy you can keep it," said Deborah Cavallaro, a real estate agent in Westchester. "I'm infuriated because I was lied to."
Supporters of the healthcare law say Obama was referring to people who are insured through their employers or through government programs such as Medicare. Still, they acknowledge the confusion and anger from individual policyholders who are being forced to change.
Cavallaro received her cancellation notice from Anthem Blue Cross this month. The company said a comparable Bronze plan would cost her 65% more, or $484 a month. She doubts she'll qualify for much in premium subsidies, if any. Regardless, she resents losing the ability to pick and choose the benefits she wants to pay for.
"I just won't have health insurance because I can't pay this increase," she said.
Most Americans are required to have health coverage starting next year or pay a fine of $95 per adult or 1% of their income, whichever is greater. The fines increase over time.
A number of factors are driving up rates. In a report this year, consultants hired by the state said the influx of sicker patients as a result of guaranteed coverage was the biggest single reason for higher premiums. Bob Cosway, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman Inc. in San Diego, estimated that the average individual premium in 2014 will rise 27% because of that difference alone.
Individual policies must also cover a higher percentage of overall medical costs and include 10 "essential health benefits," such as prescription drugs and mental health services. The aim is to fill gaps in coverage and provide consumers more peace of mind. But those expanded benefits have to be paid for with higher premiums.
The federal law also adjusts how rates are set by age, a change that gives older consumers a break and shifts more costs to younger people. Rates by age can vary by only 3 to 1 starting next year as opposed to 6 to 1 in some cases now in California. People in their 20s just starting their careers may earn so little they qualify for subsidies. But that might not be the case for consumers who are slightly older and earning more.
"It has the effect of benefiting people in their 50s and 60s and shifting costs to people in their 20s and 30s," said Patrick Johnston, president of the California Assn. of Health Plans. "Benefits are being increased for all, but it's not government subsidies for all. Some will pay more."
Rates would be going up regardless of changes from the healthcare expansion. The average individual premium will climb 9% next year because of rising healthcare costs and increases in medical provider reimbursement, according to Milliman's estimates.
Some consumer groups have questioned whether insurers are inflating their rates under the guise of the healthcare law changes.
"We believe the prices are higher than they should be," said Jamie Court, president of Consumer Watchdog, a Santa Monica advocacy group. "This is giving a bad name to the Affordable Care Act."
State regulators checked the insurance companies' math and underlying cost projections for next year, but they don't have the authority to deny increases. Under federal rules, insurers can be ordered to issue rebates if they don't spend a minimum amount of every premium dollar on customers' medical care.
"The rates aren't going up because insurance companies are pocketing more money," Lee said. "That is what it takes to pay the claims and deliver the healthcare."
Javier Lopez, 38 and a self-employed aerospace engineer in Huntington Beach, pays about $750 a month for an Anthem Blue Cross plan for his family of four. His premiums may rise nearly 20% next year for a new policy because his current plan is being phased out.
Lopez says he's willing to absorb that one-year jump if it means the government can rein in future rate hikes.
"I'm hoping with this reform," Lopez said, "we won't see big increases year after year."
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2)Jeremy Siegel: Dow Could Reach 17,000 By Year-End
By Dan Weil
The party isn't over for stocks yet, says market guru Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index hit yet another record high Monday, and he tells CNBC the Dow Jones Industrial Average will soon reach an all-time peak too.

Siegel predicts the Dow will end the year at 16,000 to 17,000. The latter level would represent a 9 percent increase from its Monday morning level of 15,562. The Dow set its record high of 15,710 Sept. 18.

So what's going to push the market higher?

"I think the economy's going to hold in here, and tapering has been delayed," Siegel proclaims. 

Economists don't expect the Federal Reserve to curb its quantitative easing until March, he says.

"So there are no major uncertainties that are hanging over the market, at least in these two months coming up."

Fourth-quarter earnings will likely prove to be strong, Siegel asserts.

"One of the good things about rising interest rates is that the pension funds are a little bit better funded this year than they were last year," he notes. Pension funds earn much of their income from fixed-income investments. 

An increase in pension fund earnings means companies don't have to worry as much about pension shortfalls.

"And that was one of the things that dragged down fourth quarter earnings last year," Siegel argues. "I think we get a little tail wind on earnings."

The market also will benefit from the fact that companies are increasing their dividends 10 to 15 percent a year, Siegel adds.

Asked what poses a threat to U.S. stocks, Siegel says he was worried when the 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 3 percent in September. 

In addition, investors may be too bullish about Europe's recovery. "The euro at $1.38 seems too high to me," he contends. It traded at $1.3789 Monday morning.

"But none of that, I think, is going to be really critical to bringing down the U.S. market," Siegel asserts. "This is a very favorable climate for equities." 

Many investors share Siegel's bullishness.
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3)Throw the Rascals Out?
By Thomas Sowell


Polls indicate that the public is so disgusted with Washington politicians of both parties that a surprisingly large proportion of the people would like to get rid of the whole lot of them.

It is certainly understandable that the voters would like to "throw the rascals out." But there is no point in throwing the rascals out, if we are just going to get a new set of rascals to replace them.
In other words, we need to think about what there is about current political practices that repeatedly bring to power such a counterproductive set of people. Those we call "public servants" have in fact become public masters. And they act like it.
They squander ever more vast amounts of our tax money, and still leave trillions of dollars of national debt to be paid by our children and grandchildren. They intrude into our private lives with ever more restrictions, red tape and electronic surveillance. And they turn different groups of Americans against each other with class warfare rhetoric and policies.
None of this is inevitable. In fact, this pattern is largely the culmination of political trends set in motion during the 1930s, and reaching a climax today. During the 1920s, the national debt was reduced and the role of government scaled back. Unemployment went as low as 1.8 percent.
President Calvin Coolidge, with every prospect of being reelected in 1928, declared simply: "I do not choose to run." Later, in his memoirs, he explained how dangerous it is to have anyone remain too long in the White House, surrounded by flattery and insulated from reality. What a contrast that attitude is with the attitude of the current occupant of the White House!
The contrast extends beyond these two presidents. What we have today that we did not have in the early history of this country is a permanent political class in Washington -- a Congress and an ever growing federal bureaucracy composed of people who have become a permanent ruling class.
The United States was not founded by career politicians but by people who took time out from their regular professions to serve during a crucial time in the creation of a new nation, and a new kind of nation in a world ruled by kings and emperors.
In the nineteenth century, there was a high rate of turnover in members of Congress. Many people went to Washington to serve one term in Congress, then returned to their home state to resume their lives as private citizens.
The rise of the permanent political class in Washington came with the rise of a vast government apparatus with unprecedented amounts of money and power to control and corrupt individuals, institutions and the fabric of the whole society.
The first giant steps in this direction were taken in the 1930s, when the Great Depression provided the rationale for a radically expanded role of government that Franklin D. Roosevelt and his followers had believed in before there was a Great Depression.
There are now people in Washington whose entire adult lives have been spent in government, in one role or another. Some begin as aides to politicians or as part of the sprawling empires of the federal bureaucracy. From this they progress to high elective or appointed offices in government.
Turnover in Congress has been reduced almost to the vanishing point. Political alliances within government and with outside special interests, as well as the gerrymandering of Congressional districts, make most incumbents' reelection virtually a foregone conclusion.
The ability to distribute vast amounts of largess to voters, at the taxpayers' expense -- President Obama's giving away free cell phones during an election year being just the tip of the iceberg -- further tilts the balance in favor of incumbents.
This kind of government must constantly "do something" in order to keep incumbents' names in the news. In short, big government has every incentive to create bigger government.
Throwing the rascals out will not get rid of this political pattern. The first step in limiting, and then scaling back, government itself must be limiting the time that anyone can remain in office -- preferably limited to one term, to make it harder to become career politicians, a species we can well do without.
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4)" The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an Opportunity" Abba Eban

With prisoners’ release, Palestinians demand Israel withdraw to 1949 lines, renounce E. Jerusalem


The prime minister also kept mum about his offer to the Palestinians of financial compensation for land remaining under Israeli control – the first time any Israeli leader has put a price tag on disputed territory.

The 16 Palestinian demands,  below, make the release of convicted Palestinian murderers a dangerous exercise in futility, because each demand is enough to drive the negotiations into impasse, just as Mahmoud Abbas did two years ago.
After seeing the Palestinian list, Netanyahu should have put the release of prisoners on hold until Abbas comes around to a rational perception of the negotiations as a give-and-take process for the object of reaching an agreement – not an opportunity for outrageous extortion.

Israel’s senior negotiator Justice Minister Tzipi Livni tried arguing that the Palestinians were just making an opening bid and they expected it to be driven down in the bargaining process. However, negotiations have been going on for three months and the process is into the fourth month of the nine-month period assigned up to deadline.

Mahmoud Abbas, rather than seeking common ground, has used the time to raise his price for a deal to an exorbitant level, while keeping his hand firmly on the terrorist spigot.
It is a matter of record that a large proportion of jailed terrorists have reverted to violence after they walked in the past through the exits of Israeli jails.
First published list of Palestinian demands
  • The United States and Israel must acknowledge that the Palestinian state is “under occupation.” (This is the Palestinian response to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s demand to recognize Israel as the Jews’ national state.)
  • Israeli must repeal legislation extending Israeli law to East Jerusalem
  • The Palestinians will have full sovereignty over their air space. (This will bar Israeli air force flights over Judea and Samaria and the Gaza Strip).
  • The Palestinians will have exclusive control of all border crossings to neighboring nations. i.e. Israel and Jordan.
  • Israel’s withdrawal to the pre-1967 boundaries is not enough. Its pull-back must go all the way to the 1949 armistice lines, additionally annexing to the Palestinian state broad strips of Israeli land that were demilitarized at that time. Among the areas which the Palestinians want to lay hands on are the Ayalon Valley, the Latrun enclave and the Armon Hantatiz district of Jerusalem between the Old City and West Jerusalem; the Huleh Lake Valley; the Golan slopes running down to the Sea of Galilee; and the Nitzana belt north of the Gaza Strip – plus one third of Dead Sea water and shore.
    ( The Palestinians hope to grab substantial Israeli territory beyond the pre-1967 borders by invoking the long moribund 1949 accords.)
  • Electromagnetic space (radio frequencies, satellite and other communications) will be under sole Palestinian control
  • The Palestinians are ready to relinquish 1.9 percent of West Bank territory.
  • All parts of East Jerusalem including the shrines sacred to Muslims, Christians and Jews will come under sole Palestinian authority against a pledge of freedom of worship.
  • Israel and its armed forces will draw back from the Palestinian state over a three-year period. Six months after the drawdown is complete, the Palestinians will be willing to sign final peace treaties with the State of Israel
  • The US and Israel must accept the settlement of the Palestinian refugee problem as “a just and agreed solution.”
  • Every Palestinian refugee (as per the Palestinian Authority’s definition of up to the fourth generation) will be free to choose between three options: settlement in Israel or the Palestinian state or staying at their present locations.
  • Whichever option is chosen, the refugees will be entitled to appropriate restitution.
  • Only when the refugee issue is finally resolved will the Palestinians agree to declare their dispute with Israel at an end
  • An international mechanism will be tasked with administering the disposition of the Palestinian refugees and their resettlement. It will be composed of Palestinian, Israeli, American, European, Canadian, Australian, Japanese and Arab League representatives
  • The Palestinian state will be authorized to sign treaties including military pacts without the intervention of a third party, such as Israel.
  • All parts of the Palestinian state will be clear of Israeli civilian and military presence.

4a   Talks Will Fail Because Palestinians Don’t Want Peace

)Israel and Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority (PA) are engaging in negotiations refused for years by the PA. Yet, only weeks ago, the PA Minister of Religious Affairs, Mahmoud Al-Habbash, delivered a paean to Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, founder and leader of Hamas, the terrorist organization that has murdered hundreds of Israelis in scores of suicide bombings, calling him a Palestinian “icon.” How can peace talks and glorifying a terrorist chieftain coexist in the PA?

Al-Habbash gave us the answer this summer, when he justified this return to diplomacy by reference to something well-known to his mosque audience––the 628 Treaty of Hudabiyyah.
Hudabiyyah was an agreement between Muhammad and the Meccan Quraish tribe, in which Muhammad promised a decade of peace. But in less than two years, a Qureishi-allied tribe committed a breach by attacking a Muhammad-allied tribe. Muhammad, who had meanwhile organized a huge army, took this pretext to attack the Qureishis. Isolated and unprepared, the Qureishis surrendered.
This approach, says Al-Habbash, has “brought us to where we are today.”
“We have a [Palestinian] Authority and the world recognizes the [Palestinian] state. All this never would have happened … only through the wisdom of the leadership… exactly like the Prophet [Muhammad] did in the Treaty of Hudabiyyah… This is the example, this is the model,” he said.
In short, the Hudabiyyah strategy––working towards the weakening and eventual elimination of Israel through negotiations––has been the operative Palestinian strategy since the Oslo Accords were signed 20 years ago. Arafat said as much in a May 1994 speech in a Johannesburg mosque. (Israel demanded a retraction and an end to terrorism, got neither –– but continued nonetheless negotiating and conceding).
When Arafat told a confidential meeting of Arab ambassadors in Stockholm in January 1996 that the aim of Oslo was “splitting Israel psychologically,” and “eliminat[ing] the State of Israel and establish[ing] a purely Palestinian State” that would “make life unbearable for Jews,” the revelation was ignored even by Israel, which chose to ignore Arafat’s words as well as their political ramifications.
Since Arafat’s death, his successor, Mahmoud Abbas, has made it abundantly clear that not only has he not accepted Israel’s right to exist as Jewish state (“I do not accept the Jewish State, call it what you will”) but he also intends to set up a Jew-free state (“when a Palestinian state is established, it would have no Israeli presence in it”).
Questioned in an interview on the need for recognition of Israel, Abbas replied that, while official recognition was unavoidably necessary for the purpose of obtaining vital Israeli concessions, “It is not required of Hamas, or of Fatah, or of the Popular Front to recognize Israel.” And, indeed, Abbas’s Fatah has never altered its Constitution calling for the destruction of Israel and the use of terrorism to achieve it. Former Fatah strongman in Gaza, Muhammad Dahlan, put it plainly when he said, “The Fatah movement does not recognize Israel, even today.”
Words and bombs are thus the Fatah/PA strategy, a strategy made possible only by duplicity. That’s why the late Palestinian leader Feisal Husseini once dubbed it the strategy of the “Trojan Horse,” in which the Palestinian regime installed via negotiations would serve “our final aim… the liberation of all of historical Palestine, from the river to the sea.”
That’s why senior PA figure Abbas Zaki tells an Arab audience, “If I say that I want to remove [Israel] from existence, this will be great, great, [but] it is hard. This is not a [stated] policy. You can’t say it to the world. You can say it to yourself.”
That’s why the PA claims to be interested in a negotiated peace, even while it tells its people repeatedly that the Jews have no historical connection of rights in Jerusalem or anywhere else.
In short, the PA has a long-established policy of duplicity about its anti-peace intentions. In these circumstances, not only are the Israeli-Palestinian conflict negotiations convened under American auspices foredoomed, but in pursuing them, the Obama Administration has embarked on a fool’s errand. Furthermore, by pressuring Israel to make further concessions––like the freeing of jailed Palestinian terrorists, merely to get the PA to the negotiating table––it is endangering an ally.
This is a moment for the Congress to act. It can produce a detailed list of Palestinian bad faith statements (of which we have provided here only a fraction) and call upon the PA to explicitly retract each statement to its own public. It can make further aid to the PA conditional on verifiable Palestinian reforms, like outlawing terrorist groups, arresting terrorists and ending the incitement to hatred and murder that feeds the conflict. And it can withhold aid until these prerequisites for a genuine peace are forthcoming.
Morton A. Klein is National President of the Zionist Organization of America (ZOA). Dr. Daniel Mandel is Director of the ZOA’s Center for Middle East Policy and author of H.V. Evatt & the Establishment of Israel (London, 2004).