Monday, December 2, 2013

Some Market Thoughts! David Horowitz and His Political Journey!

Is it all a matter of low interest rates?

Low interest rates are like a low bar for jumpers.  (See 1 and 4b below.)
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Obama study N Korea and maybe you can learn something regarding Iranian negotiations.  (See 2 and 2a below.)
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Another Obama gasser! (See 3 below.)
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Faber remains suspect, Roubini not a happy camper either and Porter Stansberry is concerned about the correlation between interest rates , when they go up, and stock prices. However, Porter believes Yellin will keep rates lower for several more years,. Thus, the risk in equities is reduced.  (See 4, 4a and 4b below.)
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Rush interviews David Horowitz and they discuss David's new book.

David has traveled many political roads starting as afar out radical, then becoming a somewhat calmer liberal and he is an arch conservative.  It took him several decades but he finally saw the light. (See 5 below.)
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George Will asks whether Medicaid will provide Obama  his next crisis?  (See 6 below.)
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Dick
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1)
U.S. Stocks Could Still Soar 63%, Starting Now
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

People called me crazy…

"Right now is the greatest moment to be an investor in my nearly two decades in the industry," I wrote in the March issue of my True Wealthnewsletter.

My headline for that issue was, "The Entire Stock Market Could Soar 95% in Three Years."

Nobody wanted to believe me. Stocks had just finished 2012 with a 16% gain.

But in 2013, stocks are already up 29%. And they're on pace for their best year since 1997, when stocks closed out the year for a 33% gain.

So could stocks really keep going higher from here? Absolutely!

Here's why…

In short, over the last half-century, history has shown that when interest rates are low, stocks get more expensive… and yet you continue to make money!

How can that be?

What most people don't know is there is a strong relationship between interest rates and stock market values… This table shows what I mean:

  P/E Ratio% of the Time
Average P/E of all periods since 195017.8100%
Average P/E when rates are above 6%1225%
Average P/E when rates are below 2.5%21.827%

As you can see, when interest rates are high, stocks are usually cheap at a P/E ratio of just 12. But when rates are low, stocks trade for much higher average P/E ratios… nearly 22.

Today, interest rates are incredibly low, near zero. Yet stocks trade for a P/E ratio of just 16.8. That's below their long-term average P/E ratio… and well below the 22 P/E ratio they could trade for based on the table.

Astoundingly, even though stocks become expensive when the Fed cuts rates below 2.5%, they do very well when interest rates are low… Stocks actually perform best when interest rates are low based on history (compared with "all periods").

Now, we know Janet Yellen – the newly appointed chair of the Federal Reserve – will follow Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's course. That means keeping interest rates near zero until at least 2016. This likely gives us another two-plus years of safe stock market gains.

And our potential is still huge…

You see, stocks could return 28% over the next two years even if P/E ratios stay at current levels. (Specifically, Wall Street analysts estimate the earnings for S&P 500 companies will be $135 in 2015. That's about 28% more than today.)

But I doubt P/E ratios will stay at current levels. I expect they will go up…

Over the next two years, we'll see more folks and more dollars forced into the stock market. You can't live on zero-percent interest. So people will be "smoked out" of their safe investments, and they'll move into riskier assets like stocks.

This could drive stocks up to their average P/E of around 22, given low interest rates. If that happens, the S&P 500 will soar to around 2,940 by the end of 2015… a 63% gain from here.

I know this sounds crazy. But it's absolutely possible. The S&P 500 is up 21% in the nine months since I first wrote about this idea. Yet stocks are still incredibly cheap.

Things are already moving in our direction. And there is no reason to expect them to stop.

Yellen and the Federal Reserve will keep rates low for at least another two years. That is certain. This, in turn, will continue pushing money into riskier assets, like stocks and real estate.

The market is up big over the last few years. But I strongly believe stocks could soar another 63% in the next two years.

So you haven't missed it. Now is still a great time to put money to work in the U.S. stock market.

Good investing,

Steve
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2)
North Korea Offers Lessons for Iran Nuclear Talks


Korean Central News Agency via Korean News Service
Recent negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program failed to reach a comprehensive agreement. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, however, remains determined to move forward despite congressional misgivings. These nuclear negotiations with Iran are reminiscent of North Korea and the Six-Party Talks.
It has been 10 years since the U.S., North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan, and Russia first sat at the negotiation table over Pyongyang’s nuclear program. However, the Six-Party Talks never achieved their aim of denuclearizing North Korea, since Pyongyang never implemented its commitments. North Korea has proposed coming back to the negotiating table but as an acknowledged nuclear state. Under those circumstances, the U.S. has no chance of achieving great success.
Bruce Klingner, Heritage senior fellow for Northeast Asia, was interviewed inThe Wall Street Journal and made four points regarding the lessons the U.S. should learn from its North Korean experiences:
  1. The U.S. should maintain sanctions while engaging in conditional diplomacy. The punitive measures should continue as long as the behavior that triggered them remains.
  2. The U.S. needs precise language in any agreement to not let its opponents take advantage of loopholes.
  3. There should be a requirement for vigorous verification measures to ensure compliance. This needs to include not only technical samplings but also short-notice challenge inspections of non-declared facilities.
  4. The U.S. needs to establish deadlines and consequences for failure to meet them.
In addition to these four points, the U.S. needs to ensure sufficient military defenses against the full spectrum of North Korean military threats. North Korea’s provocations, such as its nuclear tests and missile launches, show continually improving military capabilities. However, it seems that the U.S. does not consider North Korea or Iran as serious threats. The U.S. should ensure sufficient deterrence and not allow North Korea or Iran to gain advantage through diplomacy.
When negotiating, the U.S. should figure out how to deal with states that lack table manners. Otherwise, the U.S. could face yet another nuclear threat somewhere else in the world.

2a) 'Secret talks with Iran led Obama to shelve strike on Syria'
Times of Israel staff - 

Members of a UN investigative team take samples near the site of an alleged chemical weapons attack, in Syria, August 28, 2013 (photo credit: AP/United Media Office of Arbeen)
President Barack Obama’s last-minute decision not to carry out an intended punitive strike against Syria’s President Bashar Assad this summer, after Assad killed almost 1,500 of his own people with chemical weapons, was influenced by secret US back-channel discussions with Iran, Israel’s security and intelligence community reportedly believes.
The issue of Assad’s chemical weapons use came up in the secret US-Iran contacts held in recent months in Oman, Israel’s Channel 2 news reported Friday, and it quoted unnamed Israeli intelligence and security sources asserting Obama’s change of heart was affected by those contacts.
The report speculated that Iran persuaded Assad to agree to dismantle his chemical weapons capability in return for Obama not carrying out the intended attack.
The report underlines Israeli concerns, frequently stated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that Iran is fooling the US about its ostensibly moderate intentions, and that the US is being duped into unjustifiably warming relations with Iran, while Israel is gradually becoming isolated in its unbending opposition to Iran’s nuclear program. The same TV news broadcast alsoquoted unnamed Israeli government officials denouncing Obama for mishandling the Geneva nuclear negotiations, with the result that Iran has been granted the “right” to enrich uranium and economic sanctions pressure on Iran is collapsing.
The Obama administration last week acknowledged holding months of secret back-channel talks with Iran ahead of the interim deal on Iran’s rogue nuclear program that was signed last week by the P5+1 powers and Iran in Geneva. The president reportedly informed Netanyahu of those contacts when he visited the White House in late September soon after they became “substantive.” Israeli reports have claimed that the back-channel was opened much earlier than acknowledged by the Obama administration, and Israeli officials have privately protested that the US did not inform Israel fully of those contacts.
Friday’s Channel 2 report recalled that the Obama administration was so certain that its forces were about to attack Syria in the chemical weapons crisis at the end of August that US officials telephoned Israel’s prime minister and defense minister to give them “advance warning” the attack was about to take place. The phone calls were made shortly after Secretary of State John Kerry on August 31 had accused Assad’s regime of an August 21 chemical weapons attack that killed 1,429 Syrians. Israel’s leaders were told explicitly that the US would be taking punitive military action against the Assad regime within 24-48 hours.
Friday’s report said that Kerry personally telephoned Israel’s leaders to inform them of the imminent attack, and that Britain’s Foreign Secretary William Hague also made such a call. The calls were made so that Israel could take steps to defend itself against any potential Syrian retaliation that might target the Jewish state.
In fact, however, Obama on September 1 surprisingly announced that he would seek Congressional authorization before a strike on Syria. Ultimately Obama did not carry out the narrow, punitive action he had said he was planning, instead joining a Russian-led initiative for a diplomatic solution aimed at stripping Assad of his chemical weapons.
The Times of Israel reported claims Friday that the secret back channel of negotiations between Iran and the United States began several years ago, and that it has also led to a series of prisoner releases by both sides, which have played a central role in bridging the distance between the two nations.
In the most dramatic of those releases, the US in April released a top Iranian scientist, Mojtaba Atarodi, who had been arrested in 2011 for attempting to acquire equipment that could be used for Iran’s military-nuclear programs.


2b) Iran Nuke Deal a 'Nightmare' for the World
Chris Mitchell - CBN,  

MOSCOW, Russia — While world powers met with Iranian negotiators in Geneva, Switzerland, a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow essentially fell flat.
Netanyahu is engaged in high-stakes diplomacy to prevent Russia and other Western countries from signing a deal with Iran over its nuclear program.
Netanyahu and Putin took different views from those talks. Putin was optimistic.
“We hope in the near future a deal will be announced acceptable to all the sides,” the Russian president said.
But Netanyahu warned once again about the danger of a nuclear Iran.
“For Israel, the biggest threat against us and against global security is Iran's effort to arm itself with nuclear weapons,” he said.
Some see Netanyahu's attempt to change Putin's mind as a long shot.
“I think the prime minister tried to convince Putin that agreement with Iran at the moment will be a bad idea,” Israel Public Radio's Moscow correspondent Yair Natov told CBN News. “But I think he knew that it would be a very hard task. And from what we saw in the press conference, I think both sides agreed not to agree.”
Netanyahu's Moscow visit is one part of an all-out diplomatic campaign by Israel to stop the international community from striking a deal with Iran that would allow it to get a nuclear device.
Israel doesn't want Geneva 2013 to become Munich 1938. That's when the Western powers appeased Adolph Hitler, and he took over Czechoslovakia. That agreement sowed the seeds of World War II.
Mark Regev, spokesman for the prime minister, called it a “dream deal” for Iran.
“The deal on the table is a deal that gives the Iranians exactly what they want,” Regev told CBN News. “It's a dream deal. They don't have to make any significant concessions and at the same time they get easing of sanctions. For them it's a dream deal — a dream deal — and we're concerned for the international community, it will be a nightmare.”
Regev said Iran is not just an Israeli problem.
“It's obvious the Iranian threat is a problem for Israel, that's clear,” Regev said. “I'll remind you that the Iranians are working on intercontinental ballistic missiles — missiles that can carry nuclear payloads.”
“Now they don't need those missiles for Israel because they've already got missiles that can target Israel,” he said. “Those missiles are being built for targets way beyond the Middle East — Europe and North America.”
But will Israel attack Iran's nuclear facilities?
In a statement designed to remind negotiators in Geneva a military option is very much alive, Israel's former national security advisor Ya'akov Amidror told the Financial Times, “…We have enough to stop the Iranians for a very long time.”
“We are not bluffing,” he continued. “We are very serious about preparing ourselves for the possibility that Israel will have to defend itself by itself.”
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3) 
Government  Opening Free Gas Stations in Poor
 Neighborhoods
Oct  29, 2013
First  'Obama-station' Debuts in Detroit, Seventy Planned Nationwide

 
As  the battle over Obamacare rages in Washington, the White House is
 quietly  using a little known provision of the law to roll out a 
nationwide network of  free gas stations for minorities and the poor.
According  to a report in The Detroit News this morning, the  
administration is using its authority under the Affordable Care Act to  
"improve transportation routes to hospitals" to dispense gasoline free 
of cost  in disadvantaged neighborhoods.

 
The  $2 billion-a-year program  aims to distribute 40 million gallons of 
free gasoline each year through 70  new gas stations constructed in 
major metropolitan areas. The Department of  Health and Human
 Services (DHS) will be responsible for operating the network,  whose first station opened yesterday in Detroit.
"It's  not something we're publicizing very much, for obvious reasons,
" explains Dori  Salcido, assistant DHS secretary for public affairs. "But 
under the law we are  well within our rights to offer this service, and 
we think it's good public  policy.

 
"How  are people supposed to get to the doctor's office if they don't
 have gas in  their cars? Health insurance is worthless if you can't make
 your appointment.  This is just another fine example of government 
stepping in and solving big  problems."

 
No  Gas for You
Although  some developing oil-rich nations like Venezuela and 
Indonesia subsidize  gasoline for the poor, the practice has never 
before been tried in the United  States. The plans are proving 
controversial with some taxpayers who are loathe  to see their money go to subsidize others.
"So  basically I'm being punished for not living in the ghetto," says 
Colin Blair,  a white person from the affluent Detroit suburb of 
Farmington Hills. "I have  three kids and a mortgage. Life isn't cheap
 for me either. I could use some  free gasoline too."   An  investigation
 into the station's operations, however, reveals that Blair is  unlikely to be able to use the service.

 
"Supposedly  access to the station is determined by income," says
 Ebony Jackson, manager of  the first Obama-station. "But it's pretty 
unrealistic to do an income check on  each and every driver. So what
 we do is basically let all the black people  pump for free, and charge 
all the white people the market rate."

 
The  Obama-stations scandal was uncovered by Nolan Finley , a 
conservative  Detroit News columnist widely lauded for his g
roundbreaking  exposé
.com/search?q=cache:fI1vxyFAhIUJ:www.detroitnews.com/article/
20130825/
OPINION01/308250002+&cd=17&hl=en&ct=clnk&amp
;gl=us> on Obamaphones. Finley says the blatant racial bias in the  program is  only one of its many outrageous aspects.

"The  stations have Obama campaign logo on them and giant photos of
 the president,"  he explains. "He's trying to buy votes ahead of the 
midterm elections. This is  something you normally only see in third
 world countries. I've never been more  scared for our democracy."
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4)

Faber: 'We're in a Gigantic Speculative Bubble'

By Dan Weil

!



Multiple asset markets have entered bubble territory, says Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report.

"You have to say that we are again in a massive financial bubble in bonds, in equities, in [other] asset prices that have gone up dramatically," he told CNBC.

"Farmland is up 10 times over the last 10 years. Bitcoins are up now, and who knows what will go up next. We are in a gigantic speculative bubble."

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has risen 29.1 percent so far this year. While Faber says he hasn’t sold stocks yet, he sees little value in them.

The S&P 500 closed at 1,805.81 Friday. The market hasn’t seen a 10 percent correction in more than two years, and Faber thought a correction was overdue around 1,600. “But that doesn't make stocks good value,” he said.

Faber compares the U.S. stock market to Asian markets earlier this year. They began 2013 on the upswing, and then in May began a swoon that has taken them down 30 percent in currency-adjusted terms, Faber says.

“So we have to be careful in this kind of exponentially rising market.”

Faber notes that Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio, which uses 10-year average earnings, stands at 25. “It's at the high level that would suggest relative low returns going forward,” Faber said.

Meanwhile, short-term interest rates are almost zero, and long-term rates remain low compared to historical averages. The 10-year Treasury note yielded 2.74 percent late Friday.

“So I think if you look at the next five to 10 years, expected returns [on stocks] will be very low,” Faber said.

Still, he says the stock market can climb another 20 percent before it tumbles, as long as the Federal Reserve keeps cranking up the money-printing machine.

For a long-term investor, the time to enter the stock market was late 2008 to early 2009, Faber says. The S&P 500 bottomed at 667 in March 2009.

But, “if you’re a long-term investor, I think future returns will be very disappointing.”

As for the bitcoin digital currency, which has soared by a factor of more than 90 since January to $1,230, the surge reflects an inflow of “excess liquidity,” Faber says.

That same money can go into paintings, farmland, diamonds, etc., he says. “It shows there is a lot of liquidity that just flushes into one speculative sector of the market from another one.”

When it comes to the outlook for stocks this month, some market commentators like to talk about a traditional "Santa Claus rally."

But Mark Hulbert, editor of Hulbert Financial Digest, isn't buying it.“Don’t fall for the sales pitch,” he writes on MarketWatch. 

“The stock market’s average performance before Christmas is no better than mediocre. It is only in the last week of December that the market has strong seasonal winds blowing in its sails.”

4a)
Roubini: Beware a Global Housing Market 'Train Wreck'
By John Morgan




Nouriel Roubini, the noted economist who correctly predicted the U.S. housing bubble and its collapse, now sees an impending housing market train wreck of global proportions, with housing markets in 18 countries vulnerable to a meltdown.


In a column for Project Syndicate, Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, wrote that "signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles" are evident in Asia, Europe and emerging markets.

"What we are witnessing in many countries looks like a slow-motion replay of the last housing-market train wreck. And, like last time, the bigger the bubbles become, the nastier the collision with reality will be."

Roubini said the symptoms of overheated conditions include fast-rising home prices, high and rising price-to-income ratios and excessive levels of mortgage debt as a percentage of household debt.

He wrote that in developed countries, the housing excesses are being caused by very low interest rates fostered by a "wall of liquidity" from central banks.

In emerging markets, the housing bubbles are being formed by efforts to manipulate currency rates, high inflation, lack of other investment alternatives and rapid urbanization whereby housing demand is outstripping supply, Roubini notes.

According to Roubini, who is often bearish when it comes to investment assets like housing, equities and bonds, the affected overheated housing markets include those in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom (London), Hong Kong, Singapore, China, Israel, Turkey, India, Indonesia and Brazil. 

Roubini said the global economy's new housing bubbles may not burst immediately because easy money from central banks and anti-inflation policies are still feeding them.

"But the higher home prices rise, the further they will fall — and the greater the collateral economic and financial damage will be — when the bubble deflates," he predicted.

A two-bedroom Beijing flat now costs an average of $330,000 — about 32 years of salary for the average worker, The Telegraph reported.

"China's property moguls are uneasy — and fear the boom has become a bubble at risk of bursting," the Telegraph said.

In Australia, the biggest banks are providing easy loan terms that have helped to fuel record house prices, according to Bloomberg. 

The proportion of Australian mortgages that represented more than 80 percent of a home's value surged in the third quarter to the highest since mid-2009. And mortgages in which borrowers pay only interest also risen to the highest in at least five years, according to figures cited by Bloomberg.

4b)
What rising interest rates mean for stocks… Porter's biggest fear… Where to find double-digit yield right now… A bond genius' favorite place for money today… The yen's huge drop… We're in the midst of a currency crisis…
We're living in a yield-starved environment

The 10-year Treasury yield is at a two-year high of 2.8% today… That's up from the all-time low of around 1.6% in May… but it's still far lower than its historical average.


 Interest rates will increase… It's an economic certainty.

Despite its best efforts, the Federal Reserve can't keep rates down forever.

The question is, when will we see a more substantial increase in rates?

While no one knows the exact time frame, rising interest rates will eventually make stocks cheaper.

 Steve Sjuggerud explained the relationship between interest rates and stock valuations in today's DailyWealth…

What most people don't know is there is a strong relationship between interest rates and stock market values… This table shows what I mean:

P/E Ratio
% of the Time
Average P/E of all periods since 1950
17.8
100%
Average P/E when rates are above 6%
12
25%
Average P/E when rates are below 2.5%
21.8
27%

As you can see, when interest rates are high, stocks are usually cheap at a P/E ratio of just 12. But when rates are low, stocks trade for much higher average P/E ratios… nearly 22.

Today, interest rates are incredibly low, near zero. Yet stocks trade for a P/E ratio of just 16.8. That's below their long-term average P/E ratio… and well below the 22 P/E ratio they could trade for based on the table.

Astoundingly, even though stocks become expensive when the Fed cuts rates below 2.5%, they do very well when interest rates are low… Stocks actually perform best when interest rates are low based on history (compared with "all periods").

Now, we know Janet Yellen – the newly appointed chair of the Federal Reserve – will follow Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's course. That means keeping interest rates near zero until at least 2016. This likely gives us another two-plus years of safe stock market gains.

 Still, rising interest rates are Porter's biggest fear in the market today… As he wrote in the August 16 Digest Premium…

The biggest thing that's making me cautious in the market today is simply that long-term rates continue to tick higher and higher. Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond are at a two-year high of 2.79%.

I believe, sooner or later, rising bond yields will intersect with rising stock-market valuations in a very painful way.

Judging by indexes, like the S&P 500, I think stocks are far too expensive relative to where interest rates should be.

That's a strange statement… but just imagine what interest rates would have to be to offer investors a safe place to save. For instance, take 2.5% GDP growth and 3% inflation. Add those two things together, and you get a 10-year Treasury rate of 5.5%. At 5.5%, people would have a good incentive to buy government bonds. And I believe that's where interest rates are heading. At that interest rate, what should the value of the S&P 500 be? Where should the Dow be?
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5)
Rush Limbaugh’s Conversation with David Horowitz

Reprinted with permission from The Limbaugh Letter.
So good to speak with a no-holds-barred enemy of the ruinous left, who — having once been the left’s “most important theorist” — knows from the inside out how critical it is to take the fight to them:
RUSH: How are you doing, David?
HOROWITZ: Hey, Rush! Good.
RUSH: Your latest book has an intriguing title, The Black Book of the American Left. If somebody walked up to you on the street and asked about it, how would you explain it?
HOROWITZ: It’s kind of my life mission, I guess. It’s my collected writings. I’ve written about a million and a half words in the last 20, 30 years, not counting my books, and these words have all been about one subject, it turns out. I didn’t realize this until I had somebody collect them. But it’s all about the left, and the battles I and conservatives have had with the left over race, the culture wars, and over the left’s lack of loyalty to this country in facing its enemies.
I organized those writings into ten volumes; each is a book that covers one area. This first volume, which Encounter Books is publishing this week, is called “My Life and Times,” about how I left the left and why. The second volume is called “Progressives,” about the nature of progressivism and why it’s connected to communism.
I think the most important thing I’ve done in this book is to show the continuity in the left with its communist forebears. These are not liberals. We should never call these people liberals. To begin with, they’re bigots. They’re bigoted against Christians, against America, against white people. They don’t like conservatives. They don’t want two sides to a question. We are liberal. I don’t know of a conservative who wants to shut off the conversation, but leftists do.
RUSH: What about their term “progressive?”
HOROWITZ: Progressive is certainly better than liberal, but none of these terms accurately describes them. Progressives believe that history is a forward march. Obama put a carpet in the Oval Office with this inscription: “The moral arc of the universe is bent towards justice.” No, it isn’t. What kind of a belief is that? The 20th century is probably the worst century on record for the number of people murdered and oppressed, and the 21st century will probably be worse. There’s no historical progress in the sense of a moral evolution. Progressives think that they’re on the side of history. That’s what drives them, that’s what makes them so arrogant, that’s what makes them despise us, because we don’t go along with their program, and so we’re standing in the way of historical “progress.”
RUSH: Now let me ask — you may think this question is silly. I ask it because I’ve had several epiphanies about this recently. Are you writing this book to persuade people to oppose communists, liberals, whoever — the left? Or are you writing it just to document them?
HOROWITZ: Ah. First of all, I think it was Santayana who said that in every generation we face a barbarian threat in our own children. This is something the left doesn’t understand. The left thinks people are born good and moral. No, they’re not. That’s why we need morality, religion, laws. So I would hope that young people would read this book and be warned against socialist “remedies.” According to a Pew poll, 49 percent of young Americans have a favorable view of socialism. What is socialism? It is a system that leads to mass misery, mass impoverization, and human slaughter. That’s what it means. Yet almost half of the young think it’s benign. So on the one hand, I would like to reach the young — although our schools, as one of the volumes will show, are completely dominated by the left and have been transformed into indoctrination centers for the left.
RUSH: You’ve documented that in previous books.
HOROWITZ: But I also think the most important message in these books is for conservatives. Conservatives do many things wonderfully well. They understand the Constitution. They understand how the economy works. But they are not so good at understanding how the left works. Conservatives are way too benign, benevolent, understanding. That’s why they’ll call people who are bigots liberals. Their thought is, “If these leftists want to be called liberals, sure, we’ll call them liberals.” I hope that my book will be a wake-up call to conservatives, that these are very dangerous people. Of course, Obama has done more waking up of conservatives than I could ever do. Unfortunately, he’s done it by having the power to show them what progressive “solutions” really mean.
RUSH: You’re lighting some fires here with me. I’ve been doing my radio show for 25 years, but I’ve believed what I believe for my whole life. This is fascinating to me — why do conservatives need to be awakened? Why don’t they see it, when it’s right in front of their face?
HOROWITZ: There are two tendencies or tics conservatives have that prevent them from seeing “liberals” as they really are. One is a complacency. They don’t think that things change radically; they’re skeptical of critics like me who say they can. Above all, they don’t see that we find ourselves in a war. They don’t want politics to be a war. They want politics to be about horse-trades and compromise.
RUSH: Now wait, is that Republicans or conservatives?
HOROWITZ: I think this is true of conservatives as well, Rush. It’s not true of you. There are some conservatives who get it, but an awful lot of them have a complacent attitude towards what’s happening, or at least did until Obama was elected.
RUSH: David, you’re zeroing in here on a major, major problem as I see it. I look at so-called conservative commentators in Washington who seem to be content to commentate, but they don’t have any interest in beating this back. I don’t want to mention names, but most of them are that way. Same thing with the Republican Party. You come from the left. You’re one of the founders of the New Left. You’ve emerged; you were in the inner circle. You’ve spent much of your career trying to explain who these people are, the destructive, vicious malice that they have.
HOROWITZ: Yes.
RUSH: And you don’t think — this is astounding to me — you don’t think that the Republicans or conservatives really yet comprehend the seriousness of the threat.
HOROWITZ: No.
RUSH: Wow.
HOROWITZ: No. Otherwise they wouldn’t be squabbling among themselves so much. There’s another thing going on, and that is that the left controls the language. Our universities, our schools, our mainstream media are gone — so if you pick a real fight with the left, you get tarred and feathered, as you know all too well. Conservatives are brought up in a healthy way; they mind their reputations, they don’t want to be bloodied, they don’t want to be looked at as kooks and extremists, which are the terms of abuse that are used.
RUSH: That’s true.
HOROWITZ: And that’s why it’s taken them so long to wake up. Obama is a compulsive, habitual liar. He makes Bill Clinton look like a Boy Scout. Clinton spun things and he did lie about something very personal and embarrassing to him, but Obama lies about everything, and all the time. And yet it’s taken five years for people to start saying this. Including conservatives. Take so-called single payer health care. Why do we use phrases like “single payer?” It’s communism! If the state controls your access to health care, which is what this is about, they control you. This is a fundamental battle for individual freedom, which is what conservatives are about, or should be. But who’s saying this about Obama’s plan to organize health care along communist lines?
RUSH: Let’s talk about persuasion a second. I’ve got true believers in my audience, and I’ve also got elements of the low-information or the swing-voter segment, and then a few leftists who listen. One thing I have discovered over the course of my career is that whenever I’ve used the word “communism” to describe, say, typical modern-day liberals, people say, “Oh, come on, Rush! They’re not communists!” It ends up being counterproductive, because I have found people don’t want to believe that about somebody like Obama. How do we go about persuading people that it is what it is?
HOROWITZ: That’s a very good question. I’m publishing these ten volumes in the hope of persuading some people that is indeed the accurate description for these “liberals” and “progressives.” I think the language problem is a very serious one. I once tried to launch the word “neo-communist.” We talk about neo-fascists, so how about neo-communists? But that doesn’t work. People look at you as a relic if you use the term. But you have to at least say what their agenda is, and their agenda is controlling, is destroying individual freedom. That’s the way I would do it. By continually reminding people of what their agenda is. It’s anti-individual freedom. You can’t talk about the national debt just as an accounting problem. It’s taking away the freedom of future generations. It means that you have to work for the government instead of yourself. Currently we work something like half our lives for the state. Every other day we’re working for the government instead of for ourselves. What Obama is doing is diminishing the realm of freedom. Conservatives need to keep bringing that up all the time.
For seven years I did this campaign on the university issue. My “Academic Bill of Rights” was just to get two sides to a question, that students should be assigned books on both sides of controversial issues and professors should let them make up their own minds. To restore democratic pluralism to the academic classroom. I got minimal support for this campaign from the Republican Party. This is part of the complacency problem. Conservatives gave up the schools. There are conservatives on boards of trustees. A lot of them are businessmen, not willing to engage in the battle, because the left is very good at tarring and feathering. Their name-calling and character assassination tactics are effective.
RUSH: In education, they hold your kids’ future in their hands. You bitch at the school, your kids can get a D or an F and it’s over. And they’re not afraid. They intimidate parents like this left and right.
HOROWITZ: That, too.
RUSH: You had a great piece [Nov. 4] in National Review —
HOROWITZ: “Uniting the Right.”
RUSH: You pointed out that Democrats are always in lockstep, in contrast to Republicans, who are all over the place rhetorically and strategically. You said, and I’m quoting here, “The result is that a morally bankrupt, politically tyrannical, economically destructive [Democrat] Party is able to set the course of an entire nation and put it on the road to disaster.” David, people always ask, my callers ask me, “Why don’t the Republicans do ‘x’? Why don’t they do this? Why don’t they do that?” So let me ask you why. Aside from what you’ve said, that there’s a fear of being castigated by the media, mischaracterized. I think media paralysis is a key answer to the question. Republicans simply don’t want to have mean things said about them. They want to be liked by the people who run Washington, D.C. But I don’t even see any pushback from the Republican Party. They’ll go after Ted Cruz and they’ll go after Sarah Palin and they’ll go after Mike Lee, but they won’t go after Obama.
HOROWITZ: Exactly. I have never seen Republicans conduct such bloody warfare as they do against conservatives. They don’t do that to Democrats, ever. And I think it’s great that all the people that you mentioned, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, are people, finally, who don’t care what The Washington Post says, don’t care what The New York Times says, and don’t care what the Republican establishment says. That’s the way it has to be done.
I will tell you that the big difference between the left and the right that I saw when I came into the conservative movement 30 years ago was that the right had no ground army. I watched as the Democratic Party was pushed to the left by the activists in the streets — the MoveOn.org people, the Netroots — until it’s now just a left-wing Party. It was Howard Dean, a 60s leftover, who launched the anti-Iraq war campaign that shifted the whole Democratic Party. But on the Republican side, there was nobody pushing from the right. There was no ground war, no force pushing on Republicans from the grassroots. Now we have the Tea Party.
RUSH: You come from the belly of the beast. We’ve talked about it before, your life, your parents, and how you escaped. You lived this stuff. You were a leader of the left in your youth. Talk about MoveOn.org — these are average Americans. They may make $50,000 a year. The Netroots, they’re a bunch of people in their pajamas, sitting there blogging and posting. What do they think is in it for them? They are not people Obama is prospering.
HOROWITZ: What’s in it for them is the fact that progressivism is a religion, or a crypto-religion. Like religious people, they believe the world is a fallen place. But they also believe that they can be its saviors. Salvation and redemption are not going to come from a divinity, but from the movement they are part of, from the organized left. What they get out of this is the consolation of religion. They get a sense of personal worth; they get a meaning to their lives. That’s what drives them. It’s not money. It’s much more powerful. When Whittaker Chambers left communism, he said, “I’ve left the winning side for the losing side.” Why did he think that? Because communists have ideas they’re willing to die for, and conservatives don’t. Conservatives have to get that idea. They have to understand that their freedom will be lost if we don’t stop the left.
RUSH: About stopping them. I remember last time I spoke to you officially like this it was after you had written The Professors: The 101 Most Dangerous Academics in America, your critique of the Academy. I asked you, “Do you ever foresee the day where we’d beat them back?” You were doubtful that we would ever reclaim education. Can these people be beaten back? Can the right triumph ever again?
HOROWITZ: I remain an optimist, which brings me to the second problem with conservatives. In addition to their decency and their not wanting to make enemies and not wanting to turn politics into war, they’re fatalists. If you think you’re going to lose, you can’t win. That’s very basic. I believe there’s a lot of hope. The ideas of the left are bankrupt. They don’t work. We’re seeing this now with Obamacare. Ludwig von Mises wrote a book in 1922, titled: Socialism. He explained that you can’t centrally plan a large economy, and he showed why. 1922. That’s almost 100 years ago, yet the Democratic Party rammed through Obamacare, ignoring what the last 100 years has proved. They’re going to organize the health care of 300 million Americans with their computers. It’s lunacy. Yet it’s the policy of the whole Democratic Party. They’ve staked their political future on this.
RUSH: You think it will implode?
HOROWITZ: I think they’re going to go down in flames in the coming election. I’m hoping for that, and I can’t see how that won’t happen.
RUSH: I tell you, I hope you’re right, because these series of lies on keeping your policy and your premium getting cheaper, keeping your doctor, these are deeply personal lies that Obama’s told about health care, which is something they’ve elevated to the most important thing in people’s lives. They’ve done that. They’ve made it sound like you can’t go through life without health insurance. You cannot survive. You’re one paycheck away from ruin. You’re one disease away from ruin. And here’s Obama, lying through his teeth on one of the most deeply personal things, health care. Gallup recently had his approval number at 39, David.
HOROWITZ: It’s still way too high, considering who this guy is and what he’s done. When he loses the Jon Stewarts, he’s in serious trouble, but he’s so arrogant he doesn’t realize it. Habitual lying is a characteristic of the left. Leftists are delusional, but they’re not stupid. My parents never called themselves communists. They always described themselves as progressives. When I was a kid, Stalin was alive, and the slogan of the communist party wasn’t “dictatorship of the proletariat,” it wasn’t “a soviet America.” It was “peace, jobs, and democracy.”
Thus to sell Obamacare, they claimed — lied — that it’s to cover the uninsured. But it doesn’t even do that. Everything they said about Obamacare is a lie. Why? Because their real agenda is not health care. It’s to create a socialist state. To do that they need comprehensive control over people’s lives. I never thought I’d be saying this, because I didn’t see it even in a remote future, but we’re on the brink of a one-party state if they were to succeed. If you are ready to use the irs politically, if you have access to every individual’s financial and health care information, and if your spy agency can monitor all communications, you don’t need a secret police to destroy your opponents. Anybody you want to destroy, you’ve got enough information on them and control to stop them. That’s how close we are to a totalitarian state. They want to control your life — for your own good of course — even to the point of whether you can buy Big Gulps. That’s not incidental.
RUSH: No, it’s not. Now when this kind of thing happens, I sit around and I wonder about the average American, somebody who’s not an activist like you or me. Do they not see this, and if they don’t, how can they be made to see it?
HOROWITZ: I don’t think they see it. Most people are averse to politics and don’t pay that much attention. However, Obamacare is going to make them pay attention because his plan affects so many people. You have to start using moral language against these people. I want to hear our guys saying, “This is a threat to individual freedom. You are attacking the freedom of every American when you run up the debt like this. You are attacking the freedom of every American when you put them all in a government-controlled program like this. Government should not have this information.”
Conservatives are caught a little bit on this. We have a problem with the nsa issue. The left is very clear, since they despise America and they don’t care about our national security. But they’re right about the threat to individual liberty with the state having so much information. As I wrote in National Review, we need to make individual freedom our rallying cry. Every time they have a program that hurts individual liberty, we need to stop talking about it as though it was just about money. The money figures are so big, trillions, nobody can even grasp them, unless they’re very involved in the economy and understand it — and then they probably are Republicans.
RUSH: I hold no brief for Ron Paul, but he said something fascinating in hisfarewell address to Congress. He said the thing that surprises him most is what a tough sell freedom has become.
HOROWITZ: I agree.
RUSH: I do, too. Freedom requires personal responsibility. You’ve got 90 million Americans not working, David, but they’re all eating. They’ve all got big-screen tvs.
HOROWITZ: I know. It’s appalling to me. We need to use a moral language. Notice when the left attacks, it’s always using moral language. Racist, sexist, homophobic, whatever. These attacks sting. We don’t use language like that. We need to. It’s they who are racist. I’ve written a piece about this called, “Fight Fire with Fire.” Why are we letting them get away with their destruction of inner-city minority communities? Detroit, Chicago: why weren’t the disasters Democrats have visited on these cities huge in the Republican campaign last time? Democrats control these cities, they’ve controlled them for half a century and more. They’re ruining, destroying the lives of young black and Hispanic kids in these cities, and poor whites there as well. They’re 100 percent responsible for that, yet we never mention it.
It is beyond me. Conservative pundits probably read the Federalist Papers and they understand that we have a really wise system set up for competing interests, so you balance off this and that. They don’t want to be at war, and particularly a moral war, with other Americans. But that is the reality. The left has already made it that. Republicans are treated as though they’re of the Party of Satan. That goes with the religious nature of leftist beliefs. Progressives believe that they are creating the Kingdom of Heaven on earth and that people who oppose them are the Party of the Devil. That’s the way they fight. We have to use that kind of language. Fight fire with fire.
RUSH: You’re nailing it. You came up with something in this book that I think is worth repeating, and to me it’s brilliant. I would never have seen it had you not pointed it out. You write that the fall of soviet communism had the unforeseen effect of freeing leftists from the burden of defending failed Marxist states, which in turn allowed them to emerge as a major force in American life. That’s so right on. The failure of communism, ironically, led to a rebirth of it in this country. We wipe it out in the Soviet Union, and a shining example of its atrocities goes away, and it becomes a tougher sell to educate people what it is.
HOROWITZ: Exactly, and leftists saw that at the time. That’s the first thing they said about it. They looked on the bright side right away. That’s why connecting them to the communists is very important. It’s part of the battle. Republicans, and conservatives as well, have let the foreign policy issue, national security, slip off the political radar. Barack Obama is a supporter of the Islamofascists. He’s supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization that wants to exterminate the Jews and kill Christians and destroy America. Obama and Hillary have supported them. Their Administration is infiltrated by Islamist agents. That’s why Benghazi is so important, and why I’m really encouraged that Republicans haven’t let it totally disappear.
RUSH: That was so frustrating when Mitt Romney let that go.
HOROWITZ: But that’s a perfect example, a perfect example. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have the blood of those American heroes on their hands. What Obama did and did not do is the most shameful act in the history of the American Presidency. It’s beyond politics. You turn your back on these heroic people who are fighting for their lives and calling for help? How un-American is that? And where is the language to describe that, coming out of the mouths of our political leaders?
To go back to our earlier discussion, it was the emergence of the Tea Party that made possible a Ted Cruz, a Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and others — there are actually quite a few in the House who are standing really tall.
RUSH: The Republican Party is trying to wipe them out, David.
HOROWITZ: It’s a battle, and I don’t think our people are going to be intimated. The grassroots will prevent that.
RUSH: They’re not going to be intimidated at all.
HOROWITZ: And you of course have had a tremendous role in this. When I came into the conservative movement 30 years ago, there was no ground force. There was no grassroots army. A grassroots army is very important because you can’t take away their perks. Washington can corrupt anybody who gets there, as evidenced by the impossibility of getting Congress to impose Obamacare on themselves. But you can’t bribe people at the ground level. They don’t have the privileges, so you can’t take them away, and that’s why they’re so important — and they’re the people who give power to the voices of resistance. They elected Ted Cruz and Rand Paul and Mike Lee. I’m just hoping over time, there will be more like them.
You are without question the most important voice in having created this grassroots army. I think I told you once that I went to speak at the University of Idaho in Pocatello, Idaho 15 years ago. I always asked the students who invited me to speak, “How did you get your conservative ideas?” Before I got to ask the kid who picked me up from the airport, he popped a tape into his dashboard player, and it’s you. That’s how he got his conservative education. So now he is an adult, he has a family, and he’s probably involved in the Tea Party movement.
I think this is the key for conservatives. We should hold Republicans’ feet to the fire, but the main thing is to organize at the ground level, put the pressure on, and remember that the Democrats — not other Republicans — are the enemy. We need to be saying that “liberals,” “progressives,” are vicious, unscrupulous, they’re character assassins, and they’re racists. Nobody is holding them to account right now in the public discourse — yourself, Mark Levin, and people like you excepted. But when you began, Rush, it was just you. That was the conservative voice nationally: just you. Now we have a lot of media. This is where I derive my hope. I see tremendous developments in the conservative movement that probably conservatives don’t see as clearly as I do, because I saw these as missing elements when I came into the right.
RUSH: Well, you’re right about one thing, there is so much pessimism on our side, and it’s got to be overcome. Your book is fabulous. It’s a compendium, but so timely. Congratulations on it, because there is a lifetime of work in this. I really wish you the best, and I’m going to do everything I can to push it.
HOROWITZ: Thank you, Rush. I’m a small voice. I so much appreciate your support.
RUSH: You’ll always have it. This is really great, and I really appreciate you making time.
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6) George Will: Medicaid is Next Obamacare Crisis
By Greg Richter

As the White House touted improvements to the troubled HealthCare.gov website Sunday morning, conservative pundit George Will said the real test might be in six months when employers begin to weigh their options for 2015.
"Watch the employers, because if they start dumping people into … Medicaid – and the doctors then say, the burdens are too high and the reimbursement is too low; we're not seeing Medicaid patients – then all hell is going to break loose," Will said on "Fox News Sunday." 

Former Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., voted for Obamacare, and admitted Sunday it hasn't worked out like he expected.

"Clearly, the rollout has been a disaster, and it's still a work in progress," Bayh told host Chris Wallace. Short-term, he said, the program has been "very problematic, and first impressions tend to be lasting."

If things don't turn around in the next year, he said, it will be "problematic" for Democrats in the 2014 midterm elections.

With the passing of the November 30 deadline to have the glitch-filled website functioning, James Capretta of the Ethics and Public Policy Center told Fox News it may be a month before anyone can tell if there has been success in fixing the site.

He said the appearance of a better-working site doesn't mean the system is functioning as it should.

"The real test of HealthCare.gov is whether you make the right payment to the right people to the right insurance plans, he said. "It's very easy to fix the front-end enrollment if you turn off controls on the back end. And it's very clear from multiple media reports that the system is still not accurate when it makes payments to the insurance plans."

The technicians are working around the problem instead of fixing it, he said. The government currently is making bulk payments to insurance companies who are self-reporting their sign-ups because the back end of the system isn't properly keeping an accounting.

Neera Tanden, of the Center for American Progress, agreed that the true test is a month away, but as a supporter of the Affordable Care Act noted, "I think the idea of gloom and doom over that is overstated."
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Too Close for Hayden Just Right For Obama? Will Obama Also Succumb to China?

A LTE  I could not resist sending to the local paper :


Every town has its miscreant and we have our in the guise of Norman Ravitch.

His recent LTE  warns Americans they  should not be ambushed by the Israel Lobby, devout Christians should not be taken in by their biblical beliefs and Israeli propaganda and even Obama and Kerry are not to be believed.

That about covers the waterfront but I question which cup of facts Mr. Ravtich drinks from.

As for an Israel Lobby that is a useful generality for Israel bashers. Those who support Israel's right to live in peace, as I do,  believe America needs dependable allies, would be well advised to  support democratic governments and every citizen has a constitutional right to 'lobby' their government .  If the so called Israel lobby is effective it must be because their argument has credibility.

As for Christians and Evangelists who support Israel, Cufi being among the strongest 'Lobbyists' far exceeding in number and effectiveness  AIPAC, I suspect they too come by their beliefs on their own and I doubt their fervor is based on their being hoodwinked.

As for Obama and Kerry, their Iranian agreement may or may not prove effective and I certainly have my own reservations but I assume they came to their conclusions honestly though perhaps driven more by naivety than a clear reading of history and belief it frequently repeats.

As we begin The Holiday Season  I would urge Mr. Ravitch be of good cheer and sip a stiff Scotch which is what I have chosen to do with his ideas.
===
Too close for Hayden.   Just about right for Obama?  (See 1, 1a, 1b and 1c below.)
===
Obama faces China's military.  Will he succumb here as well? (See 2 below.)
===
Dick
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1)  Gen. Hayden: Iran 'Far Too Close to Nuclear Weapon'
By Greg Richter



With few good choices in dealing with Iran's push for nuclear weapons, former CIA and NSA Director Gen. Michael Hayden said he's OK with letting the six-month temporary deal with the country go forward.

But we should be truthful, Hayden told "Fox News Sunday." "We have accepted Iranian uranium enrichment."

The "red line" with Iran has clearly changed, Hayden told host Chris Wallace.

"Right now, the Iranians are far too close to a nuclear weapon," he said. "We have hit the pause button. Now we've got to negotiate hitting the delete button with them."At the end of the day, Hayden said, "Iran's going to be a nuclear threshold state."

The deal allows Iran to have uranium enriched to 5 percent. Previous U.N. resolutions have called for a complete dismantling of its nuclear program and that all materials be shipped out of the country.
Turning to NSA leaker Edward Snowden, Hayden said he has no reason to doubt reports that Snowden has a doomsday cache that will be unleashed if he is caught or punished for leaking American secrets.

"This is catastrophic for the safety and the security of the American nation," Hayden said. Still, he doesn't think the U.S. government should back away from pursuing Snowden.

To do so, he said, would be like "negotiating with terrorists."


1a) Why Is There So Little Outrage Over The Iran Deal?
By E. Jeffrey Ludwig



While there are many skeptics concerning the recent deal with Iran in Geneva, a tone of outrage from political and religious leaders is missing or muted. Outside of Israel, American political leaders may disagree, but the language is typically restrained, and a "wait and see" attitude has been cultivated. Why are our politicians, as well as Christian and Jewish leaders, not clamoring for a Congressional resolution rejecting this deal?
Many of our American leaders may assume that since an Iranian nuclear weapon is so blatantly a danger not only to Israel but to the U.S., the Middle East, and to Europe, that the U.S. and the other countries who struck this deal will provide proper surveillance. They may be thinking that even though the Iranians are sneaky and cannot be trusted, the big powers will be smart enough and possess sufficient technological sophistication to prevent a real end run around the deal, and thus, even if at the last minute (the proverbial cavalry to the rescue), the West will intercept and stop any real cheating and Iran will pay heavy consequences.

First, is this reasoning legitimate? Can the West be fooled? Answer: the West in general and the U.S. in particular can indeed be fooled. We have been fooled time and again. Four planes with 19 terrorists on board were allowed to be crashed into three major buildings on 9/11/2001 (with at least one further target saved only by the heroic efforts of the passengers). Hamas has fired thousands of missiles into Israel since Gaza was awarded self-governing as a "move towards peace." More recently, the Boston Marathon bombers were fingered by the Russians as being a threat to our security, but the U.S. ignored the warning. Also, the North Koreans were able to get nuclear capability even though we knew for so long they were "on the verge."
Being fooled is first cousin to being weak. Our defense of Georgia against Russia was nil. We abandoned defense missile systems in Poland. Our stockpile of ICBMs has been radically reduced. The military of the U.S. is being downsized to accommodate only a one-front war, not a two-front war. Base closings begun under Clinton have continued under Obama. Our troops are being withdrawn from Iraq, and Shi'ite (Iranian power) in Iraq has increased dramatically under Nouri Maliki during the past few years, as well as in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and possibly Libya. The Taliban is still being "engaged" in Afghanistan after more than ten years. Gradually the U.S. is being pushed back while downsizing militarily. The thought that we can or will intervene in the case of a catastrophic breakthrough by Iran in nuclear weaponry doesn't seem supported by the facts on the ground. And let's face it: we weren't willing to save our own ambassador in Benghazi, so how can anyone think we are going to stick our necks out for Israel or any other so-called friends in the international community?

Second, Pres. Obama ideologically sees the U.S. military as basically a spearhead of capitalist imperialism, and believes that our military dominance is serving an exploitative motive. The idea that a strong military is necessary for defense is looked upon by the president and his close advisers as a view that is naïve at best. To the inner circle of policymakers in the present administration, the military exists mainly to prop up the capitalist worldwide hegemony, and, under the guise of "defending freedom," actually assures that other countries allow exploitation by multinational corporations and by dictators who can take advantage of their own people. In other words, for the statists now in power in the U.S., Iran is just going through "growing pains" to form a new identity and join the family of nations, and that those who oppose this "growth" and independence have an exploitative, capitalist mindset.
To the leftist crowd, if we are free to develop nuclear arms, then Iran should be free to as well (what's good for the goose is good for the gander). It is impossible to convince a leftist that nuclear proliferation should be stopped worldwide because some countries are more rational and balanced, while others are unstable or "bad." Instead by a twisted logic, the leftist will "accept" the premise that there should be some built-in safeguards against nuclear proliferation, but affirm that other countries' right to act independently must be safeguarded as well even if that "independence" poses an existential threat to our allies or ourselves. This view is as absurd as the police agreeing to provide a gun to a bank robber but telling him that he can only have one bullet and not an entire magazine of ammo.

Thirdly, there is a widespread assumption that the critics of the deal are hysterical because they have prejudged the agreement from an overly-partisan point of view. To the vast majority of people, the dangers posed by the agreement are nonexistent or remote. In our country we believe in talking and compromise, so it is assumed by many that this approach is always a good thing even if it involves certain risks. Most Americans, including our leaders, do not realize that this paradigm does not work at all times and everywhere. Realpolitik cannot be avoided in a dangerous world. Power must be asserted against the wicked ones who would cause bodily harm to oneself, one's family, or one's fellow citizens or allies. In short, wishful thinking is operational here just as if we were living in 1938 when Chamberlain went to Munich. Sadly, events must transpire to disprove a mistaken reliance on "compromise" and "talking" (really what is happening is "manipulation" and "diddling").

Lastly, Paul, writing to the church at Ephesus in the first century, revealed that in some important respects the evils of life are beyond our human ken. He wrote, "We wrestle not against flesh and blood but against powers, against principalities, against the rulers of darkness, against wickedness in high places." God is wrestling with all of us just as he wrestled with Jacob in Genesis to reveal to him a higher truth, one which we cannot forget. We are, like Jacob, wounded in the thigh by our traumatic encounters with the terrorist world. We are struggling with God against a great evil that cannot be easily perceived at the sumptuously appointed conferences in places like Geneva. There are evil powers in this world, evil powers of anti-Semitism that have been around for thousands of years. At the annual Zionist Organization of America banquet (Nov. 24, 2013) to honor Gov. Mike Huckabee and others dedicated to a strong and vibrant Israel, Morton Klein, President of ZOA, said we need to continue to believe in miracles as well as action. This observation is very true, and of course we must continue to pray without ceasing.

E. Jeffrey Ludwig is a Harvard University Master Teacher who has published numerous articles, and has taught in many educational settings including Harvard, Penn State, and Juniata College as well as in New York City secondary schools

1b) Is the US changing sides in the regional conflict between Iran and its enemies?
by Jonathan Spyer


A report by respected Washington-based journalist Hussein Abdul Hussein in the Kuwaiti Al-Rai newspaper this week revealed details of an indirect US channel with Hezbollah.

The report comes, of course, close on the heels of the interim agreement concluded in Geneva between the P5 + 1 world powers and Iran, allowing the latter to continue to enrich uranium.

News items are also surfacing suggesting a stark split between the US and Saudi Arabia over regional policy in general, and policy toward Syria in particular. Saudi officials are going on the record expressing their alarm at the direction of American policy.

Happily stirring the pot, some Iran-associated outlets have suggested that Washington is actively seeking to rein in Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who favors a hardline against Iranian interference in the region.

Meanwhile, agreement has now been reached over the long-postponed "Geneva 2" conference, to discuss the war in Syria.

The conference will go ahead because US-backed Syrian opposition representatives abandoned their demand that President Bashar Assad could have no part in any transitional phase of government in the country.

What does all this add up to? There are an increasing number of voices which perceive a shape behind all these details: Namely, an effort by the current US administration to turn the Iranian regime from an adversary into a partner. The method: Acceding, in part or whole, to key Iranian demands.
Let's take a look at each item in more detail.

The usually reliable Abdul Hussein's report details the mechanism by which the US is speaking to Hezbollah, in spite of that organization being a US-designated terrorist group. British diplomats are the ones doing the talking.

The channel of communication between UK officials and the "political wing" of the movement was recently revived, in tune with the improving relations between London and Tehran.
It is now serving to transfer messages between Washington and Tehran.

An unnamed diplomatic source quoted by Abdul Hussein explained that this dialogue is "designed to keep pace with the changes in the region and the world, and the potential return of Iran to the international community."

The official went on to explain that because the US does not concur with the (British, entirely fictitious) division of Hezbollah into "political" and "military" wings, direct dialogue is currently not possible.
The report goes on to outline moments in recent months when the US has found itself on the same page as Hezbollah. One of these, very notably, was the occasion in June when the Lebanese Army, together with Hezbollah fighters, fought against the partisans of the pro al-Qaida Salafi preacher Ahmad al-Assir in the Lebanese town of Sidon. The US backed the army, without reference to the key role played by Hezbollah fighters in the action, which resulted in al-Assir's defeat.

The other was the US condemnation of the recent al-Qaida-linked bombing at the Iranian Embassy in Beirut. The condemnation, well-noted in Lebanon, did not contain any reference to the presence of Iranian and Hezbollah fighters in Syria.

The Abdul Hussein report also tells us the US "outreach" to Iran has not been on the nuclear file alone. Rather, even before any comprehensive agreement was reached, Washington appears to have begun to dismantle the carefully assembled diplomatic structure seeking to contain Iranian regional ambitions.
Even Tehran's proxy Hezbollah, which killed 241 US Marines in Beirut in 1983, is evidently now a fit subject for communication, as part of Iran's return to the international community.

Reports suggesting American efforts to contain Bandar are somewhat less reliable, coming as they do from pro-Iran and pro-Hezbollah media outlets (al-Manar and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards-associated Fars News Agency). But certainly, the deep Saudi frustrations with the direction of US policy are not an invention of pro-Iran propagandists.

Nawaf Obaid, a senior adviser to the Saudi royal family, this week accused Washington of deceiving Riyadh over the Iran nuclear deal. "We were lied to, things were hidden from us," Obaid told an audience in London, as quoted in The Daily Telegraph. He went on to vow continued Saudi resistance to Iranian machinations across the region. In particular, he expressed Saudi determination to turn back the Iranians in Syria.

"We cannot accept Revolutionary Guards running around Homs," the adviser said. But this defiant tone appears in stark contrast to the developing US position.

The Geneva 2 conference is now scheduled to take place on January 22. It is a US-sponsored affair. It is not yet clear if Iran itself will be there. But what is clear is that the conference will take place entirely according to the agenda of the Assad regime and its backers.

That is – the US-backed Syrian National Coalition will directly face the regime, while the regime now flatly rejects any notion of its stepping down.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, humming with the old Ba'athist rhetoric, the Syrian Foreign Ministry said, "The official Syrian delegation is not going to Geneva to surrender power… The age of colonialism, with the installation and toppling of governments, is over. They must wake from their dreams."

The armed rebels will not be sending representatives to the conference.

They, financed and armed by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have formed a new "Islamic Front" that is battling the regime around Damascus, in Aleppo and in the border region of Qalamoun this week. The military advantage continues to ebb and flow.

But the stark contrast between the US-led diplomacy and the events on the ground is another clear reminder of the extent to which Washington's position has moved away from confrontation, away from Riyadh – and toward Tehran.

Assad has revived his fortunes in the course of 2013, mainly because of the massive Iranian assistance he has received. Washington, which officially backs the opposition, appears to be sponsoring a conference which will crown this achievement.

So is the US in fact changing sides in the contest between Iran and those regional forces seeking to contain and turn back its advance?

Michael Doran of the Brookings Institute suggested this week that Washington is in the first phase of seeking a "strategic partnership" with Iran, an "entente cordiale" which would see a US-Iranian alliance forming a lynchpin of regional stability.

If this is truly what the welter of evidence detailed above portends, then the Middle East is headed into a dangerous period indeed. As Doran also notes, there is no reason at all to think that Iranian designs for regional hegemony have been abandoned.

The effect of US overtures to Tehran and undermining of allies will be to build the Iranians' appetite. This will serve to intensify their continued efforts at expansion.

The corresponding efforts by other regional powers, Israel and Saudi Arabia chief among them, to resist this process will also increase.

That, in turn, is likely to mean greater instability across the region – and an eventual direct collision could result.
Jonathan Spyer is a senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs(GLORIA) Center, and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.


1c) U.S. boxes in Israel, not Iran: Surrender in Geneva
By Mark Steyn 

"Iran, U.S. Set To Establish Joint Chamber Of Commerce Within Month," reports Agence-France Presse. Government official Abolfazi Hejazi tells the English-language newspaper Iran Daily that the Islamic Republic will shortly commence direct flights to America. Passenger jets, not ICBMs, one assumes - although, as with everything else, the details have yet to be worked out. Still, the historic U.S.-Iranian rapprochement seems to be galloping along, and any moment now the cultural exchange program will be announced, and you'll have to book early for the Tehran Ballet's season at the Kennedy Center ("Death To America" in repertory with "Death To The Great Satan").

In Geneva, the participants came to the talks with different goals: The Americans and Europeans wanted an agreement; the Iranians wanted nukes. Each party got what it came for. Before the deal, the mullahs' existing facilities were said to be within four to seven weeks of nuclear "breakout"; under the new constraints, they'll be eight to nine weeks from breakout. In return, they get formal international recognition of their enrichment program, and the gutting of sanctions — and everything they already have is, as they say over at Obamacare, grandfathered in.
Many pundits reached for the obvious appeasement analogies, but Bret Stephens in the Wall Street Journal argued that Geneva is actually worse than Munich. In 1938, facing a German seizure of the Sudetenland, the French and British prime ministers were negotiating with Berlin from a position of profound military weakness: it's easy to despise Chamberlain with the benefit of hindsight, less easy to give an honest answer as to what one would have done differently playing a weak hand across the table from Hitler 75 years ago. This time round, a superpower and its allies, accounting for over 50 percent of the planet's military spending, were facing a militarily insignificant country with a ruined economy and no more than two-to-three months' worth of hard currency — and they gave it everything it wanted.
I would add two further points. First, the Munich Agreement's language is brutal and unsparing, all "shalls" and "wills": Paragraph 1) "The evacuation will begin on 1st October"; Paragraph 4) "The four territories marked on the attached map will be occupied by German troops in the following order." By contrast, the P5+1 (U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China plus Germany) "Joint Plan of Action" barely reads like an international agreement at all. It's all conditional, a forest of "woulds": "There would be additional steps in between the initial measures and the final step…" In the post-modern phase of Western resolve, it's an agreement to reach an agreement — supposedly within six months. But one gets the strong impression that, when that six-month deadline comes and goes, the temporary agreement will trundle along semipermanently to the satisfaction of all parties.
Secondly, there are subtler concessions. Explaining that their "singular object" was to "ensure that Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon," John Kerry said that "Foreign Minister Zarif emphasized that they don't intend to do this, and the Supreme Leader has indicated there is a fatwa which forbids them to do this." The "Supreme Leader" is not Barack Obama but Ayatollah Khamenei. Why is America's secretary of state dignifying Khamenei as "the Supreme Leader"? In his own famous remarks upon his return from Munich, Neville Chamberlain referred only to "Herr Hitler." "Der Führer" means, in effect, "the Supreme Leader," but, unlike Kerry (and Obama), Chamberlain understood that it would be unseemly for the representative of a free people to confer respectability on such a designation. As for the Fuhrer de nos jours, Ayatollah Khamenei called Israel a "rabid dog" and dismissed "the leaders of the Zionist regime, who look like beasts and cannot be called human." If the words of "the Supreme Leader" are to be taken at face value when it comes to these supposed constraints preventing Iran from going nuclear, why not also when he calls Jews subhuman?
I am not much interested in whether "the Supreme Leader" can be trusted. Prudent persons already know the answer to that. A more relevant question is whether the U.S. can be trusted. Israel and the Sunni monarchies who comprise America's least-worst friends in the Arab world were kept in the dark about not only the contents of the first direct U.S./Iranian talks in a third-of-a-century but even an acknowledgment that they were taking place. The only tip-off into the parameters of the emerging deal is said to have come from British briefings to their former Gulf protectorates and the French getting chatty with Israel. A couple of days ago, Nawaf Obaid, an adviser to Prince Mohammed, the Saudi Ambassador in London, was unusually candid about the Americans: "We were lied to, things were hidden from us," he said. "The problem is not with the deal struck in Geneva but how it was done."

"How it was done": Some years ago, I heard that great scholar of Islam, Bernard Lewis, caution that America risked being seen as harmless as an enemy and treacherous as a friend. The Obama administration seems to have raised the thought to the level of doctrine. What has hitherto been unclear is whether this was through design or incompetence. Certainly, John Kerry has been unerringly wrong on every foreign policy issue for four decades, so sheer bungling stupidity cannot be ruled out.
But look at it this way: It's been clear for some time that the United States was not going to take out Iran's nuclear facilities. That leaves only one other nation even minded to keep the option on the table: Israel. Hence the strange new romance between the Zionist Entity and the Saudi and Gulf Cabinet ministers calling every night to urge them to get cracking: In the post-American world, you find your friends where you can, even if they're Jews. But Obama and Kerry have not only taken a U.S bombing raid off the table, they've ensured that any such raid by Israel will now come at a much steeper price: It's one thing to bomb a global pariah, quite another to bomb a semi-rehabilitated member of the international community in defiance of an agreement signed by the Big Five world powers. Indeed, a disinterested observer might easily conclude that the point of the plan seems to be to box in Israel rather than Iran.
If it were to have that effect, the Sunni Arab states would be faced with a choice of accepting de facto Shia Persian hegemony — or getting the Saudis to pay the Pakistanis for a Sunni bomb. Nobody in Araby believes the U.S. can "contain" Iran, even if it wants to. And, since the Geneva deal, nobody's very sure the U.S. wants to.
Meanwhile, through the many months they kept their allies in the dark, Washington was very obliging to the mullahs. According to the Times of Israel, among the Iranian prisoners quietly released by the U.S. as a friendly predeal gesture is Mojtada Atarodi, arrested in 2011 for attempting to acquire nuclear materials. Iran has felt under no pressure to reciprocate. America is containing itself, in hopes of a quiet life.
Will it get one? The Guardian reports that, last Saturday night at the Geneva InterContinental, the final stages of the P5+1 talks were played out to the music bleeding through from the charity bash in the adjoining ballroom. At one point, the band played Johnny Cash:
"I fell into a burning ring of fire
I went down, down, down and the flames went higher
And it burns, burns, burns
The ring of fire . . . ."

So it does.

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2) A Military Strategy to Deter China
By T.X. Hammes


China’s announcement of an Air Defense Identification Zone last weekend made Seth Cropsey’s commentary “America Has No Military Strategy for China” extremely timely.  He is absolutely correct on two key statements.  First, an escalation between China and Japan would be disastrous and, even more importantly, the United States has no strategy for a conflict with China.  Secretary Cropsey notes that the AirSea Battle concept is the “sole U.S. preparation” but that it is not a strategy. 
While no set of actions can guarantee continued peace between China and the United States, carefully considered national and military strategies will reduce the probability of a conflict.  The United States National Strategy makes that an explicit goal.  In his November 2011address to the Australian Parliament, President Barack Obama stated U.S. National Strategy would:
“continue our effort to build a cooperative relationship with China.  … all of our nations have a profound interest in the rise of a peaceful and prosperous China.”
This year, Tom Donilon, the National Security Advisor, clarified and reinforced the Administration’s determination to continue its rebalance to Asia. 
“To pursue this vision, the United States is implementing a comprehensive, multidimensional strategy: strengthening alliances; deepening partnerships with emerging powers; building a stable, productive, and constructive relationship with China; empowering regional institutions; and helping to build a regional economic architecture that can sustain shared prosperity.”
Thus, the United States has a clearly articulated national strategy to encourage peaceful growth in the region. Unfortunately, as Cropsey noted, the United States has failed to express a coherent military strategy to support its national strategy.
Deepening the confusion concerning U.S. military strategy is the tendency of many observers to assume that CSBA’s paper,AirSea Battle: A Point-of-Departure Operational Concept, expressed the U.S. military strategy for a conflict with China.  The paper postulated that in the “unthinkable” case of a war with China, U.S. efforts would include a “executing a blinding campaign against PLA battle networks, executing a suppression campaign against PLA long-range, principally strike systems, seizing and sustaining the initiative in air, sea, space and cyber domains.” This paper stated it was not proposing a strategy but only a concept for overcoming China’s area denial/anti-access capabilities.
Perhaps the biggest weakness of the ASB concept is that it scares our allies without deterring China.  Since most ASB technology is top secret, U.S. officials are unable to discuss it with our allies.  As a result, many allies assume the United States will follow the plan described in CSBA’s paper and initiate immediate, extensive attacks on Chinese territory. Our allies are obviously concerned that China will see such attacks as emanating from allied territory and respond in kind.  In short, U.S. allies are being asked to offer bases without any knowledge of what actions the U.S. intends to take from those bases.  Not a great way to reassure allies. Unfortunately because this operational approach relies heavily on cyber and space capabilities, it creates the unintended consequence of raising the value of a first strike.  Thus it is escalatory.  In a crisis, both militaries will know that the one that strikes first will achieve significant tactical and operational advantages. 
ASB also fails to deter China.  Because it is apparently dependent upon space and cyber systems, China may well feel it can degrade those systems enough to defeat the operational approach.  Further, China may well believe the United States cannot afford ASB or at very least will not field the capabilities for a decade or more.  A military strategy that offers a relative inexpensive defeat mechanism or a window of vulnerability has little deterrent value. 
To eliminate the confusion and reassure other nations, the United States needs to go beyond simply declaring that ASB is not a strategy.  It must clearly state U.S. military strategy for a possible conflict with China. 
What Should a Military Strategy Do?
The first and most important function of a military strategy is to support the national strategy.  Therefore, any military strategy must encourage or, at very least, not discourage the continued growth and integration of China’s economy with that of the global economy.  A U.S. military strategy for Asia must achieve five objectives:
1. Deter China from military action to resolve disputes while encouraging its continued economic growth;
2. Assure Asian nations that the United States is both willing to and capable of remaining engaged in  Asia;
3. Ensure access for U.S. forces and allied commercial interests to the global commons;
4. Achieve victory with minimal risk of nuclear escalation in the event of conflict; and
5. Be visibly credible today.
Ideally, a military strategy would also provide guidance for matching limited defense resources to appropriate force structures and equipment buys. Given the fact that China has a thermonuclear arsenal, a military strategy must emphasize deterrence and, if that fails, should escalate in a deliberate, transparent way.
Outline for a Strategy
Professor Eliot Cohen proposes that a strategy should include critical assumptions, ends-ways-means coherence, priorities, sequencing, and a theory of victory. Without listing, examining and challenging assumptions, it is not possible to understand a strategy. With assumptions identified, coherence in ends-ways-means becomes possible. These elements should not be treated separately.  If goals are selected that exceed available means, one does not have a strategy.  Priorities are required because a nation will not have the resources to do everything at once.  Sequencing flows from priorities.  Finally, a strategy must have a theory of victory – an answer to the question “how does this end?” It must express how the strategy achieves war termination on favorable terms. 
A Proposed Military Strategy
I propose a military strategy I am calling Offshore Control: Defense of the First Island Chainthat takes advantage of geography to block China’s exports and thus severely weaken its economy.  
Assumptions
I have listed five key assumptions below.
1. China starts the conflict.  Assuming China initiates the conflict presents the most difficult military  situation for the United States.
2. There is a high probability that a conflict with China will be a long war.  For the last 200 years, wars  between major powers have generally run for years rather than months.  Further, the United States  would find a protracted conflict most challenging.
3. Any major conflict between the United States and China will result in massive damage to the global economy.  The integrated global economy means that, like WWI, the opening of the conflict will cause major economic contraction.
4. The United States does not understand China’s nuclear decision process.  Therefore, it is critically  important that the U.S. strategic approach minimize escalation.  If escalation is required, deliberate and  transparent escalation is better than a sudden surprise that could be misinterpreted.  This approach  certainly violates the generally accepted precept that escalation in war be violent and sudden to achieve  maximum effect.  However, that maxim was developed before the advent of offsetting nuclear arsenals.
5. In space or cyber domains, a first strike provides major advantages.  Thus any operational approach  that requires the robust use of space and cyber capabilities is inherently destabilizing in a crisis.
Ends, Ways, and Means Coherence
The combination of decreasing defense budgets and rapid increases in procurement costs for new weapons suggests a strategy for conflict with China should assume limited means, at least to start.  In addition to limited means, the United States must accept that China’s nuclear arsenal imposes restrictions on the way American forces may attack Chinese assets.  The United States must select ways that minimize the probability of escalation to nuclear conflict simply because no one can win in a major nuclear exchange. With limited means and restricted ways, the ends selected therefore also should be modest.   They must attain U.S. strategic goals but not risk a major nuclear exchange. 
This logic leads to the concept of Offshore Control.  Operationally, Offshore Control uses currently available but limited means and restricted ways to enforce a distant blockade on China.  It establishes a set of concentric rings that denies China the use of the sea inside the first island chain, defends the sea and air space of the first island chain, and dominates the air and maritime space outside the island chain.  No operations will penetrate Chinese airspace.  Prohibiting penetration is intended to reduce the possibility of nuclear escalation and make war termination easier. 
The denial element of the campaign plays to U.S. strengths by employing primarily attack submarines, mines, and a limited number of air assets inside the first island chain.  This area will be declared a maritime exclusion zone with the warning that ships in the zone will be sunk.  While the United States cannot initially stop all sea traffic in this zone, it can prevent the passage of large cargo ships and tankers.  In doing so, it cripples China’s export trade, which is central to China’s economy.
The defensive component will bring the full range of U.S. assets to defend allied soil and encourage allies to contribute to that defense.  It takes advantage of geography to force China to fight at longer ranges while allowing U.S. and allied forces to fight as part of an integrated air-sea defense over their own territories. In short, it flips A2/AD to favor allies rather than China.  Numerous small islands from Japan to Taiwan and on to Luzon provide dispersed land basing options for air and sea defense of the apparent gaps in the first island chain. SinceOffshore Control will rely heavily on land-based air defense and short-range sea defense to include mine and counter-mine capability, we can encourage potential partners to invest in these capabilities and exercise together regularly in peacetime.  
In keeping with the concept that the strategy must be feasible in peacetime, the United States will not request any nation to allow the use of their bases to attack China.   The strategy will only ask a nation to allow the presence of U.S. defensive systems to defend that nation’s air, sea, and land space.   The U.S. commitment will include assisting with convoy operations to maintain the flow of essential imports and exports in the face of Chinese interdiction attempts.
The dominate phase of the campaign will be fought outside the range of most Chinese assets and will use a combination of air, naval, ground and rented commercial platforms to intercept and divert the super tankers and post-Panamax container ships essential to China’s economy.   Eighty percent of China’s imported oil transits the Straits of Malacca.  If Malacca, Lombok, Sunda and the routes north and south of Australia are controlled, these shipments can be cut off.  This reduction in energy supply will have a negative effect on China’s economy. 
However, the United States must recognize that the dramatic reduction in China’s trade will significantly reduce its energy demands.  Thus, energy interdiction is not a winning strategy.  Exports are of much greater importance to the Chinese economy.  Those exports rely on large container ships for competitive cost advantage.  These ships also are the easiest to track and divert. Naturally, China will respond by rerouting, but the only possibilities are the Panama Canal and the Straits of Magellan – or, if polar ice melt continues, the northern route.  U.S. assets can control all these routes. While such a concentric campaign will require a layered effort from the straits to China’s coast, it will mostly be fought at a great distance from China—effectively out of range of most of China’s military power. 
Ends
That leads us to modest ends.  Offshore Control is predicated on the idea that the presence of nuclear weapons makes seeking the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party or its surrender too dangerous to contemplate.  The United States does not understand the Communist Party decision process for the employment of nuclear weapons but it does know the Party is adamant it must remain in control of China.  Thus, rather than seeking a decisive victory against the Chinese Communist Party, Offshore Control seeks to use a war of economic attrition to bring about a stalemate and cessation of conflict with a return to a modified version of the status quo.
Theory of Victory
Offshore Control seeks termination of the conflict on U.S. terms through China’s economic exhaustion without damage to mainland China’s infrastructure or the rapid escalation of the conflict.  It seeks to allow the Chinese Communist Party to end the conflict in the same way China ended its conflicts with India, the United Nations in Korea, the Soviet Union, andVietnam.  It allows China to declare it “taught the enemy a lesson” and thus end the conflict. Offshore Control does not seek decisive victory in the traditional military sense but secures U.S. objectives effectively.  It recognizes the fact that the concept of decisive victory against a nation with a major nuclear arsenal is fraught with risks if not entirely obsolete. 
Conclusion
President Obama has presented a U.S. national strategy that sets goals and the diplomatic, economic and political paths necessary to achieve them.  While one can argue about how effectively they are being executed, the diplomatic, economic, and political paths have been defined.  However, the United States has failed to articulate a coherent military strategy to support its national strategy.  It is time to correct that deficiency.  Offshore Control: Defense of the First Island Chain is a starting point for a discussion with our allies and friends in the region.  It seeks to provide the military component of the U.S. national strategy in Asia.
The major goal of Offshore Control is to deter China by presenting it with a military strategy that cannot be defeated. This directly addresses one of the most worrying aspects of the current situation in Asia.  Like the Germans before WWI, the Chinese may believe they can win a short war.  In particular, they may believe their growing capabilities in space and cyber might neutralize U.S. power in the region.  By showing that Offshore Control can be executed with today’s force even with dramatically reduced access to space and cyber, the United States and its allies can dispel the notion of a short war.  The only way China can defeat such a strategy is to invest hundreds of billions of dollars over a decade or more to create a global sea control navy.  And even that will not be a guarantee it wins such a conflict. 
Photo credits: Infinity Journal, Stratfor
T. X. Hammes served 30 years in the Marine Corps and is now a Distinguished Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at the National Defense University (NDU).
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Sunday, December 1, 2013

Gov. Walker An Acceptable Alternative to Gov. Christie?


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Jonathan David is a very dear Israeli friend.  The number two man at Israel's largest and best private University  - The  IDC Herzilya.  He was in Baltimore recently and was interviewed.

Dick,Enjoy my appearance on Canadian TV.  You may like it. jd


http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/featured/prime-time/867432237001/iranian-nuclear-deal-bungle/2867116300001  
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There are consequences when a president is weak.  (See 1 below.)
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Is Gov. Walker and acceptable alternative to Gov. Christie? (See 2 below.)
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Dick
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1) The price of presidential weakness
By Wesley Pruden


A president has to be a resolute officer of his administration. If he isn't he fails. When everybody gets his number the new reality makes everybody miserable. That goes double when other presidents, prime ministers and despots get it.
Barack Obama, resolute enough when he's designing health care schemes, shows only irresolution abroad. Weakness and irresolution is the face he turns to the rest of the world, in hopes that if he hires a good speechwriter and bows deeply enough to whatever kings and potentates cross his path, that's good enough.
But of course it isn't, and Mr. Obama is challenged now at every turn by friend and foe of the United States who need to see on what meat the man feeds, and of what stuff his promises and assurances are made. The mullahs in Tehran, who can't believe how easy it was to roll the president and his counterparts in Geneva, had no sooner signed the agreement to preserve the Iranian pursuit of the bomb at a bargain price than the mullahs began dreaming up new demands. If the mullahs could roll him once, they could roll him twice.
It's not just the Iranians measuring the president twice before cutting him once. China has drawn an unusual "Air Defense Zone" in the East China Sea meant to test the resolve of Japan, South Korea and above all the United States, to see who if anyone will try to do anything about it. The first Chinese aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was dispatched to the area on a training mission, innocent enough but intended to show that Beijing is big enough to back up a threat. This is supposed to be a dispute between China and Japan over a few uninhabited islands in the East China Sea. It's true that all real estate is about location, location, location, but this dispute is useful in other ways.
The United States — presumably at the instructions of President Obama, but one never knows — dispatched two B-52 bombers, the terror of despots and troublemakers everywhere, to fly through the zone to see what would happen. Nothing did. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said the United States has "no intention" of recognizing the "air defense zone," by notifying the Chinese when they cross the co-ordinates when they enter the zone, but the Chinese have no doubt noticed that President Obama's red lines eventually fade to green. The Chinese in Beijing read the newspapers.



Not far away, President Hamid Karzai is negotiating the terms of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, and an agreement to train Afghan's own army and to show the security forces how to keep what passes for peace in Islamic countries. Mr. Karzai desperately wants to forge such an agreement, but only on his terms, which change frequently. When Susan Rice, the White House negotiator, told Mr. Karzai that if there's no agreement soon the United States would withdraw all its troops and trainers in 2014. Mr. Karzai was so intimidated that he added the new conditions, including a demand that all prisoners at Guantanamo be freed.
Neither was he impressed by colleagues in the Afghan government. One of them told the New York Times that Mr. Karzai was only contemptuous of the American threat, and joked about the lack of American resolve. He asked Mr. Karzai what he wanted as the final outcome of the negotiations. "It is favorable if they surrender to us," he replied. "The United States has come and it will not go, brother. It does not go. Therefore, ask your demands and don't worry."
America's allies look at this, ponder the implications, and worry. No one worries more than the Saudis, one of the most reliable — if often infuriating — American friends in the Middle East. Like the Israelis, the Saudis can't understand President Obama's passionate romance with the Iranian regime.
They're think it spells trouble for everyone. "The Geneva negotiations," declared the influential Saudi newspaper Al Riyadh, "are just a prelude to a new chapter of convergence between the United States and Iran. A prominent Riyadh columnist likened Mr. Obama to Mother Teresa, "turning his right and left cheeks to his opponents in hopes of reconciliation."
Mother Teresa was something of a saint to her followers, and she was an inspiration to a lot of others. Nobody elected Barack Obama to sainthood. He just has to get over it.
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2)Scott Walker, Wisconsin’s action governor
MILWAUKEE
In 2011, thousands of government employees and others, enraged by Gov. Scott Walker’s determination to break the ruinously expensive and paralyzing grip that government workers’ unions had on Wisconsin, took over the capitol building in Madison. With chanting, screaming and singing supplemented by bullhorns, bagpipes and drum circles, their cacophony shook the building that the squalor of their occupation made malodorous. They spat on Republican legislators and urinated on Walker’s office door. They shouted, “This is what democracy looks like!”

When they and Democratic legislators failed to prevent passage of Act 10, they tried to defeat — with a scurrilous smear campaign that backfired — an elected state Supreme Court justice. They hoped that changing the court’s composition would get Walker’s reforms overturned. When this failed, they tried to capture the state Senate by recalling six Republican senators. When this failed,they tried to recall Walker. On the night that failed — he won with a larger margin than he had received when elected 19 months earlier — he resisted the temptation to proclaim, “This is what democracy looks like!”

Walker recounts these events in “Unintimidated: A Governor’s Story and a Nation’s Challenge” (co-authored by Post columnist Marc Thiessen). Most books by incumbent politicians are not worth the paper they never should have been written on. If, however, enough voters read Walker’s nonfiction thriller, it will make him a — perhaps the — leading candidate for his party’s 2016 presidential nomination.
Act 10 required government workers to contribute 5.8 percent of their salaries to their pensions (hitherto, most paid nothing) and to pay 12.6 percent of their health-care premiums (up from 6 percent but still just half of what the average federal worker pays). Both percentages are well below the private-sector average. By limiting collective bargaining to base wages, Act 10 freed school districts to hire and fire teachers based on merit, and to save many millions of dollars by buying teachers’ health insurance in the competitive market rather than from an entity run by the teachers’ union. Restricting collective bargaining to wages ended the sort of absurd rules for overtime compensation that made a bus driver Madison’s highest paid public employee.
Act 10’s dynamite, however, was the provision ending the state’s compulsory collection of union dues — sometimes as high as $1,400 per year — that fund union contributions to Democrats. Barack Obama and his national labor allies made Wisconsin a battleground because they knew that when Indiana made paying union dues optional, 90 percent of state employees quit paying, and similar measures produced similar results in Washington, Colorado and Utah.
Walker has long experience in the furnace of resistance to the looting of public funds by the public’s employees. He was elected chief executive of heavily Democratic Milwaukee County after his predecessor collaborated with other officials in rewriting pension rules in a way that, if he had been reelected instead of resigning, would have given him a lump-sum payment of $2.3 million and $136,000 a year for life.
To fight the recall — during which opponents disrupted Walker’s appearance at a Special Olympics event and squeezed Super Glue into the locks of a school he was to visit — Walker raised more than $30 million, assembling a nationwide network of conservative donors that could come in handy if he is reelected next year. Having become the first U.S. governor to survive a recall election, he is today serene as America’s first governor to be, in effect, elected twice to a first term. When he seeks a second term, his opponent will probably be a wealthy rival who says her only promise is to not make promises. This is her attempt to cope with an awkward fact: She will either infuriate her party’s liberal base or alarm a majority of voters by promising either to preserve or repeal Act 10.
Walker is politely scathing — a neat trick — of Mitt Romney’s campaign, especially of Romney’s statement that “I’m not concerned about the very poor” because “we have a very ample safety net.” The imperative, Walker says, is to “help them escape the safety net.”
“Outside the Washington beltway,” he says pointedly, “big-government liberals are on the ropes.” No incumbent Republican governor has lost a general election since 2007. Since 2008, the number of Republican governors has increased from 21 to 30, just four short of the party’s all-time high reached in the 1920s. He thinks Republican governors are in tune with the nation. If reelected, he probably will test that theory.
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